Game 118, Red Sox at Mariners
Felix vs. Beckett, 7:10pm
Happy Felix Day, and joyous Wily Mo gloaming.
Another shake-up of the roster, and the M’s again add a bit of power. The loss of Smoak hurts; I was looking forward to seeing how he finished his season. But given the injury, it’s pretty tough to complain about calling up the red-hot Wily Mo Pena. Pena homered in his first PA with the Rainiers and hit a massive HR the other day in Round Rock. The M’s haven’t had a guy who the opposing team wants to watch in BP, but they’ve got one now.
Jack Wilson returns to the line-up in time to face Josh Beckett, who was sharp against the M’s a few weeks ago.
1: Ichiro
2: Gutierrez
3: Ackley
4: Carp (1b)
5: Pena (DH)
6: Wells
7: Bard
8: Rodriguez (3B)
9: Wilson (SS)
The other big news of the day is that the M’s came to terms with their 5th round draft pick, Tyler Marlette, a prep catcher from Florida. He signed an over-slot deal, and has a higher ceiling than the other catchers that the M’s drafted. Nice work; I was beginning to think he might head to Central Florida. Now go get Kevin Cron!
Justin Smoak -> Disabled List, Wily Mo Pena -> Seattle, Luke French -> DFA
In his first start back from a thumb injury caused/exacerbated by a bad-hop grounder, Justin Smoak suffered a broken nose and maxilla on a bad-hop grounder. The M’s haven’t given a time table for his return, but the plan seems to be for Mike Carp to take over at 1B, as he did in the Texas series.
Smoak’s spot on the active roster will go to Wily Mo Pena, who’s putting up a remarkable season in AAA. He’s got 4 HRs and an wOBA of over .550 in his short stint in Tacoma, and a wOBA of .499 in over 250 PAs for Reno. His hot start helped get him a call-up with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but they cut him after about 50 plate appearances in which he put up pretty much the most Wily Mo Pena line imaginable: 5 HRs (out of 9 total hits), 19 Ks and 0 walks. This is a limited player, but a fun one. The massive righty should get some work as the DH; we’ll see if they platoon him with a lefty (like Kennedy, though at this point I’d much rather see the 29-year old Pena face righties than Kennedy). Pena gets the start tonight against Boston.
To get Pena on the 40-man roster, the Mariners DFA’d Luke French, who’s having an abysmal season for Tacoma. His tRA is 7.54, his RA is 6.82, and his FIP is a shade over 7. He got shelled by the Iowa Cubs yesterday, giving up 7 runs in 2 1/3 IP. His velocity was never a strong point, but he’s been around 85 MPH this year, but then, he averaged 86 on his FB last year. That’d be a long time to keep pitching with an undiagnosed injury, and he was very successful for Tacoma last year. In any event, the promise he showed in 2009 before and after he was acquired from Detroit hasn’t been in evidence in quite a while.
Game 117 – Red Sox at Mariners
Beavan vs. Lackey, 7:10pm
The last time Lackey faced the M’s, I talked about his poor year and the fact that he was giving up fewer grounders and thus a lot more home runs. Earlier in the year, this meant very little, as the M’s were wholly incapable of hitting home runs. But they’ve shown a bit more power lately with the addition of Robinson and Carp’s hot streak. Lackey’s got a half-decent K:BB ratio, but he’s still been bad this year, but he’s facing the M’s in Safeco. Justin Smoak returns from his injury, and the M’s (including Carp and Ackley) saw Lackey somewhat recently, so hopefully they can drive a mistake out and get a win tonight.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro (RF)
2: Gutierrez
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Smoak (1b)
6: Kennedy (3b)
7: Olivo
8: Rodriguez (SS)
9: Robinson
A Quick Update On My Health
I probably won’t make this a regular thing, but so many of you have been so remarkably supportive since I was diagnosed with leukemia that I didn’t want to keep you all out of the loop as we moved down the path. I’ve now been in the hospital a little over two weeks, and have completed my first round of chemotherapy.
To determine how effective the chemo was, they performed a bone marrow biopsy on me earlier in the week. The results of that test are in – I officially have no more leukemia in my body. The doctors won’t say I’m in remission until they discharge me from the hospital in a week or two, but given that I’m currently cancer-free, I’m happy to use that term, even if it is technically a little premature.
This doesn’t end my journey, as I’m still going to be in for three more rounds of “consolidation chemo” over the next few months, and will be in and out of the hospital for most of the rest of 2011. Remission isn’t the same thing as cured – the goal is to keep this thing from ever coming back. However, it’s a great first step.
Someone please explain this to me
Is ESPN contractually obligated to show preseason football on its flagship channel? I know, I’m out of things, I don’t understand who is getting paid for what… and yet the NFL lockout makes pre-season NFL football look like split-squad (and B-squad at that) spring training games. And just in the world of baseball, there’s two games between teams #1 and #2: the AL Central division Indians-Tigers, with Verlander, and an NL Central division title game with Pujols.
There’s even a Yankees game on! How does that not get televised?
Is it tied to Monday Night Football? Help me understand.
Game 116, Mariners at Rangers
Vargas vs. Holland, 5:05pm
The M’s look to avoid a sweep in Arlington, look to figure out Derek Holland, and then look forward to leaving the infernal Texas heat. Holland threw a shutout against Seattle in July, and he’s get 13 Ks to 2 BBs in two starts against the M’s so far. The lefty has been very tough on the few lefties he’s faced so far (he’s faced 3 times as many righties as lefties, as you might imagine), so some of the right-handers are going to have to help Carp and Ackley. C’mon Casper Wells.
Ichiro DHs again tonight, presumably because they’d like to rest him after the 105 degree day yesterday. In the past, this would be a necessary evil type of a move – giving Ichiro some rest, but taking a defensive hit. Now? I haven’t seen much of Casper Wells, but I think he might be a better defender at this stage. UZR isn’t much help at this point, but at the same time, it’s just *hard* to measure defense by watching the games on TV. Still, I don’t think I’m the only one who was stunned when Ichiro didn’t get to Yorvit Torrealba’s game-tying double last night. Was it a tough play? Absolutely, but this is Ichiro. I have to think he makes that play fairly easily in the past, including last year. I can’t think of a reason Ichiro’s defense would just go off a cliff, and it’s possible that it hasn’t. But I’m starting to feel nervous when a ball is hit to right field, and this feeling sucks. We’ve talked a bit about the fact that this season’s provided some great moments despite the drudgery of a losing season/historically bad offense. This is the flip side of that.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro (DH)
2: Wilson
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Olivo
6: Gutierrez
7: Wells (RF)
8: L. Rodriguez (3B)
9: T. Robinson (LF)
In the minors, Taijuan Walker gets the start for Clinton, and Anthony Vasquez starts for Tacoma against Round Rock. AA Jackson and A+ High Desert have the day off. In the lower levels, Ambiorix Hidalgo starts for Pulaski and Cameron Hobson makes his first start for Everett.
Alex Liddi scored his 108th run of the year last night to break the Rainiers decades-old record for runs scored in a season. Hosken Powell set the old record of 107 in 1977 with the Tacoma Twins. Powell wasn’t a powerful hitter, but had 82 walks to just 49 Ks in 1977 for a .427 OBP. He debuted with the Twins in 1978 and had an undistinguished MLB career – hampered in part because he had no power despite playing a bat-first defensive position (RF/LF). It says something about the Rainiers offense this season (or about the PCL’s offensive overload) that Liddi could break the record despite posting only a .335 OBP.
Odds and Ends: Draft Signings, Prospect Promotions, Cheating
What I’m reading before the M’s attempt to avoid another sweep:
1: The M’s signed Carter Capps, their supplemental 3rd rounder, who pitched for Mount Olive College. The DII pitcher of the year was 14-1 with an ERA under 2 and 129 Ks in 118 IP for the Trojans who went 47-10 and had a TEAM ERA of 2.78. He’d been pitching in the Cape Cod League to help his bonus negotiations, and was named the team’s (the Harwich Mariners) best pitcher. In the Cape league, Capps worked predominantly out of the bullpen and dominated with a mid- to high-90s FB, striking out 34 in 30 innings and walking just one. Not sure if the M’s want to stretch him out as a starter or keep in the ‘pen (where he could move quite fast) – but he’ll report to Clinton in the Midwest League. His success on the Cape helped him, as he apparently signed a deal for well over slot.
2: It’s not just the M’s who’ve called up some of their top prospects recently. The Blue Jays Brett Lawrie and the Royals Johnny Giavotella have done well in their first big league week, and the Royals have now brought up their “catcher of the future,” Salvador Perez. Lawrie, Giavotella and Dustin Ackley were three second basemen vying for the PCL hitting lead (or a promotion); Lawrie and Ackley often drew comparisons (especially before Lawrie moved to 3B a few months ago), with Ackley winning on polish and contact and Lawrie getting the edge on MiLB performance and power projection. Of course, Ackley’s far exceeded his minor league line so far and his hit for more power than many of his fans would’ve guessed. In this case, I’m quite happy that the scouts won out against the number-crunchers.
I’ve been curious about Salvador Perez since Royals manager Clint Hurdle declared that he had the best arm of any catcher he’d ever seen. A great defender whose bat has developed enough to make him viable, Perez seems like what we dreamed Steven Baron would be.
In addition, the Braves called up one of their untouchable prospects, Arodys Vizcaino, to shore up their bullpen for their playoff push, and the Angels called up AA RHP Garrett Richards to start tonight against the Yankees. Sam Miller of the Orange County Register says that he’s got good 2- and 4-seam fastballs, gets some ground balls and works quickly. You could do worse. I think people are making a bit too much out of the fact that he’s making his debut in (brand-new) Yankee stadium, but it’s still a gutsy move considering the importance of each game to the Angels, who trail the Rangers by 1.5 games.
3: Lots of talk today about the Blue Jays stealing signs at their home park. There was talk of this a while back after the Yankees strongly implied that the Jays had been up to no good, but we got new, awesome details in this story from Amy Nelson of SI ESPN the Magazine. The Man in White! Bullpen pitchers tracking suspicious movement, screaming at Jose Bautista! Colin Wyers providing some statistical support for the claims of a suspicious home-field advantage! This sort of sounds like a bad episode of the X files, and I love it. I’d guess noted baseball-cheating expert DMZ does too.
Game 115, Mariners at Rangers
Happy Pineda day!
Pineda vs. Ogando, 5:05pm
A great pitching match-up is mighty useful to ameliorate the pain of a lost season, and, at least on paper, this one’s basically oxycontin. I’m not looking forward to watching Ogando face this line-up, but we can hope he’s wearing down after passing the 130 IP mark in his last start. Not that there’s any evidence of that, mind you – his velocity’s pretty consistent, he had a good July (and one start in August) statistically. Fundamentally, I’d just like a well-pitched game after last night’s walk-fest, and if the defense wouldn’t mind playing up to their potential, that’d be nice too. I don’t feel like I’m asking a lot.
He’s 1-0 against the M’s this year, yielding 1 run in 12 innings, on 7 hits, 3 walks and 10 Ks. On the plus side, the M’s have changed so thoroughly since he last saw them in May that these small sample results are worth even less than the nothing they’d ordinarily fetch. 7 of his 10 Ks came against Mike Saunders and Ryan Langerhans! I’ve pretty much forgotten that Langerhans played on this year’s team.
What I’m looking for from Pineda hasn’t really changed since his first MLB start against the Rangers back in April: I’d like to see him use his change to give the lefties something else to look for. The results of this particular game aren’t as meaningful as evidence of Pineda’s evolution as a pitcher. This will be Pineda’s third start against Texas – they know what he throws, and he knows most of these hitters. Now what? Can he still throw his FB by them? Will he still throw lefties his slider? Has the change-up been shelved?
With a righty on the hill, temperatures near 100 degrees and Trayvon Robinson on the team, I’d have thought this’d be a perfect day to rest Franklin Gutierrez. The M’s don’t agree, as they seem to operate under the theory that the best way for an enervated player to build up his strength is to put him in absurdly hot weather and have him chase down fly balls and run the bases. This seems so illogical, so…sweat-lodgical. I would point out that the M’s weren’t too bad at getting him a day off or two while Saunders and Halman were still around, and it seemed to help Guti.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Wilson
3: Ackley
4: Carp (1B)
5: Kennedy (DH)
6: Olivo
7: Gutierrez
8: Robinson
9: Seager
The Rainiers are facing Texas’ AAA affiliate in Round Rock right now, and they’ve added prospect IF Carlos Triunfel. The SS takes Luis Rodriguez’s spot on the roster. Gabe Noriega moves from High Desert to Jackson to replace Triunfel. Carlos has had a solid year, but we’re still waiting for a real breakout. Playing in the video-game-like PCL might help his stats, but we’ll have to wait and see if he’s able to MLB pitching. I’m still somewhat bearish on the guy, but I would love him to prove me wrong. The M’s could really use a decent back-up to Brendan Ryan next year, and if Triunfel wants to lay a claim to that spot, beautiful. He should play for the Rainiers tonight in Round Rock at 5pm; the game also marks Forrest Snow’s AAA starting debut.
The 50-man roster for the next two years
There’s been increasing talk about Jack Zduriencik’s future and whether his job will be on the line next season. At this point, we don’t know what the organization will really be shooting for in 2012, or what kind of budget they’ll be shooting with. The 17-game losing streak suggests that a lot more work is needed, while the respectable performance otherwise suggests that the team is tantalizingly close. Another way to look at things is to evaluate what Zduriencik has built (or rebuilt) and see how solid it looks, and after the trade deadline is a good opportunity for that.
Whether or not he gets five years to carry out his plan (not that it was meant to be a “five-year plan”), obviously it will take that long to see how some of the pickups in these deals mature. So I thought it would be good to consider the picture for the next two years, which includes some important transitional questions that a GM would need to anticipate and plan for. What follows is a sense of who’s currently in the organization and might play a significant role over that time frame. It’s not exactly a depth chart for each position, more a collection of who could end up helping fill different spots.
Since we’re talking about the future, the roster building is provisional and incomplete, of course. Only a couple spots are really solidly locked down, and more deals and signings will be needed to plug holes and upgrade positions, starting this winter. Part of this exercise is seeing what’s left if, say, you give up a particular player your trading partner really wants. Not everyone on the list will be part of the picture, as guys go away or get replaced. Some of the prospects would still need to make significant strides and their progress is uncertain, but there’s at least a scenario in which they might contribute.
Right Field
Ichiro: This position is no longer one we can realistically consider to be locked up long-term. Presumably Ichiro will hold onto it for the last year of his contract, but that only gets us to the beginnings of uncertainty. Will his performance recover, over the final months of this season or next year? Will ownership or fan sentiment require an extension even if he doesn’t recover, or at a price that isn’t warranted if he does? Will he decide to return to Japan to close out his career, like Sasaki and Johjima?
Game 114, Mariners at Rangers
Furbush vs. Harrison, 5:05pm.
*UPDATE* Shannon Drayer reports that Brendan Ryan’s going on the 15 day DL, and he’ll be replaced by Luis Rodriguez.
The M’s head to a sweltering Arlington for three games against the first-place Rangers in what’s shaping up to be a rather interesting series – at least, it’s as interesting as it can be considering the M’s are in last place and Felix isn’t pitching.
Charlie Furbush makes his second start for the M’s tonight, coming off a very encouraging start against the A’s in Safeco. Granted, facing the A’s in Safeco is a great training-wheels start, and about as far removed as facing the Rangers in Arlington as you can get without involving the AL East powers. But he missed a lot of bats in his 62 pitches and showed an arsenal that has some real promise.
The first thing you notice about Furbush is that his arm angle and velocity should help him get left-handed hitters out. The angle coupled with a deceptive (though complicated) delivery make it hard to pick up the ball, and then his fastball comes in a bit faster than advertised. Furbush is generally credited with a FB in the 88-91 range, and if you look at pitch fx charts at Fangraphs or Texasleaguers, that’s what you’ll see. But take a look at the fourth graph here: Furbush’s two-seam fastball/sinker is essentially split into two groups – one averaging around 91 mph, and another mixed in with “sliders” at around 83 MPH. The problem is that the pitch fx algorithm doesn’t know what Furbush throws, as he just debuted this year. Thus, the algorithm is missing the fact that Furbush throws a change-up. Pitch fx gurus Mike Fast (of Baseball Prospectus) and Josh Smolow (of The Hardball Times) put him at 16 change-ups out of his 62 pitches in the Oakland start.
This is not only good news in that it can help him get right-handers out, it also means his sinker/two-seam velocity isn’t 88.9, it’s 91. That doesn’t sound like much, but it should give him more margin for error. That’s important, because Furbush still struggles against righties and he’s going to need to develop this pitch if he wants to be more than a fringe starter (Furbush gave up 40 HRs in his MiLB career – 35 of them to righties). But the tools are there; he’s not another lefty soft-tosser that the M’s have trotted out in a futile attempt to find another Jamie Moyer. I’m not expecting great things from a guy with a HR problem facing Texas in Arlington, but I’m intrigued by Furbush’s potential long term.
Today’s line-up features Jack Wilson at SS and in the 2nd spot in the line-up as Brendan Ryan continues to nurse a sore shoulder (*see update above*). I have no problem with Wilson playing; he’s a good defensive back-up. But must he take Ryan’s line-up spot just because it’s Ryan who got hurt? If Ackley takes a day off, would they bat Kennedy (or Wilson) 3rd, because hey, our #3 hitter’s got the day off?
Today’s line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Wilson
3: Ackley
4: Carp (1B)
5: Olivo
6: Wells (DH)
7: Kennedy (3B)
8: Gutierrez
9: Robinson
Other weekend news bullets:
* Trayvon Robinson debuted, and showed the skills you would expect. Great pieces by Jeff Sullivan before and after the series against the Angels.
* The M’s outscored the Angels 6-4, but lost the series two games to one. The Rainiers split a 4-gamer with Albuquerque in which they were outscored by the Isotopes 39-35. The Rainiers have now scored an even 750 runs this season in 116 games; the Mariners have scored 374 in 113. This isn’t a different level, this is an entirely different sport. Note: the Rainiers put up 12 in their win at Round Rock last night, so the results against the Isotopes aren’t purely park-effect driven. Erasmo Ramirez gave up 6 runs in 5 innings, which should count as a quality start in the PCL.
* In prospect news, while the national attention focused on Stephen Strasburg’s return for the Hagerstown Suns, James Paxton‘s racking up strikeouts and moving up the rankings of the top lefties in the minors. Kevin Goldstein makes the point here ($). While many had Paxton on their radar, few people had him in the M’s top 10 lists pre-season. This isn’t a big oversight – he held out a long time and the reports on his velocity in the indie leagues weren’t exactly reassuring. The breakout seasons from Paxton and Walker are probably the best development in the minor leagues this year, and Paxton could make an impact next season. Another reason why it was easier for Zduriencik to deal Doug Fister, I suppose.
* Rockies reliever Juan Nicasio fractured his neck after being struck by a line drive off the bat of Ian Desmond. Certainly one of the more horrific on-field injuries in recent years, and it comes about four years after minor league coach Mike Coolbaugh died after being struck by a line-drive. Doctors give Nicasio a decent chance to play again, as he didn’t sustain damage to his spinal cord – the fracture occurred on the C1 vertebrae.
* Buster Olney discussed WAR, and the Fangraphs leaderboard on twitter yesterday which occasioned some interesting discussion of the positional adjustments in the metric as well as some snark about Olney as he poked around the new metric. Predictably, Dave Cameron offers the former in a good piece here. There’s a lot of concern about the use of UZR in WAR, though of course you can get a UZR-free WAR over at B-Ref if you want. The point is that it’s best to use the same measuring stick for everyone. WAR is just attempting to frame the debate in a systematic way – that a SS hitting 20 HRs is *different* from a 1B hitting 20 HRs, and that defensive excellence can make a so-so hitter a valuable player. We all know these things, but it’s still valuable to lay out the assumptions before hand (a SS is X runs more valuable than a LF, for example). If people have misgivings about one or more components of WAR, they’re free to ditch them and substitute them with something else. WAR is a process for attempting to summarize a player’s value; it is not a “number.” I know some people lament the fact that there are so many different versions of it – from Baseball-reference’s rWAR to Fangraphs’ fWAR to Baseball Prospectus’ WARP. Putting aside any mathematical issues, (which’d be over my head anyway) I actually like the different iterations. Let’s see the impact of tweaking an assumption here or there, that can sharpen our understanding and maybe point out areas to research. But just make sure you apply the tweak to everyone; putting your thumb on the scale isn’t “tweaking” an experiment.