Game 9, Indians At Mariners
Tomlin vs Bedard, 1:10 pm.
Not one to sit around and wait for the ship to right itself, Eric Wedge is putting out his let’s-try-something-new batting order, after watching the offense flail aimlessly for the last week. I’m just glad this means Luis Rodriguez gets a start. Normally, I’d say something here about the team running out eight left-handed bats in a row against an RHP, but Josh Tomlin has shown no platoon split so far in his big league career, and it’s not like the M’s have exploited platoon match-ups so far this year anyway. I’ll just say that I’m pretty sure we won’t end the year with two home runs, and it will be nice when Chone Figgins isn’t leading the team in round trippers.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Kennedy, 2B
Cust, DH
Smoak, 1B
Langerhans, CF
Rodriguez, SS
Saunders, LF
Gimenez, C
Game 8, Indians At Mariners
Fister vs Masterson, 6:05 pm.
Well, regardless of what happens, it’s nearly guaranteed to be more fun than last night, right?
I’ve referenced Justin Masterson a few times when talking about Michael Pineda, as he is the prototypical right-handed starter with a huge platoon split. Masterson throws from a very low arm angle which makes it really tough for right-handers to pick up the ball, but lefties get a nice long look at it coming in towards them, and the low arm slot makes it tough for him to throw anything that doesn’t dive in towards a left-handed hitter. Look for the M’s left-handed bats to be able to work a bunch of walks tonight, and if they can string together a few extra-base hits, they could put up some runs.
It will be an absolute miracle if Miguel Olivo gets a hit off Masterson, however.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Cust, DH
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Kennedy, 2B
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Game 7, Indians At Mariners
Vargas vs Carrasco, 7:05 pm.
The M’s get home field advantage for the first time all year, and they also get an Indians team that has some problems, so this could be a pretty good weekend. Expect to see a bit more offense against a pitching staff that is, err, not great.
In roster news, Chris Gimenez came up to replace Adam Moore as the reserve catcher – Moore went on the 60 day DL to free up the necessary 40 man roster spot.
In roster drama, Eric Wedge said before tonight’s game that Jack Wilson took himself out of the game in Texas after his back-to-back errors, and Wedge called his actions “unspeakable”. Adam Kennedy starts at second base tonight, and it’s pretty obvious that this is going to lead to Jack Wilson being traded, probably sooner than later. Wilson was annoyed with the move to second base, knows he doesn’t have a future in Seattle, and I’d imagine he’d welcome a trade to a contender who would let him play shortstop occasionally. I’m not saying Wilson asked out of the game to force the organization’s hands, but I doubt he really cares what the M’s think about him right now. If his actions get him shipped out, that’s probably an upgrade in his eyes.
Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve seen the last of Jack Wilson on the field for the M’s. With Adam Kennedy and Luis Rodriguez around, the M’s have other stop-gap options at second base until Ackley is deemed ready. They can live without what Jack Wilson was going to give them for the next few months.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Cust, DH
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Kennedy, 2B
Ryan, SS
Langerhans, CF
Rainiers Opener Game Thread
The Rainiers open their season in Sacramento at 7:05 pm tonight. Luke French takes the hill against Josh Outman. You can listen on 850 AM in the Seattle area or listen online here (though there are rumors it might not work – your mileage may vary).
Dustin Ackley, 2B
Greg Halman, CF
Matt Tuiasosopo, 1B
Mike Carp, LF
Alex Liddi, 3B
Carlos Peguero, RF
Mike Wilson, DH
Josh Bard, C (note – if this doesn’t change, I guess it’s Chris Gimenez who is coming up to replace Adam Moore)
Sean Kazmar, SS
Pineda’s Change-Up
Michael Pineda’s debut has been dissected many places, and you’ve seen Dave’s write up, but I want to specifically discuss Pineda’s change and what it did and didn’t do against the Rangers. Pineda pitched brilliantly against righties but gave up three XBH to the seven lefties he faced. Was this due to his change-up? Yes and no.
First of all, if you’ve looked at the pitch fx data at texasleaguers or lefkowitz, you may notice that pitch fx didn’t think Pineda threw any change-ups. With less data to go on than we have for Tom Wilhelmsen (or Anthony Varvaro), pitch fx is going to be less than 100% at identifying pitches. Here’s a chart that shows three very distinct clusters of pitches, but which pitch fx sorts into only two pitch type buckets:
The group of nine pitches that break in the opposite direction to his slider are mislabeled four-seam fastballs, but this is his change/two-seamer: this is what he’s developing to attack lefties.
One of the best arguments for starting Pineda with Tacoma was that the team could mandate that he use the pitch fairly often without worrying about the results. With Seattle, the team would be less likely to utilize a work-in-progress. In essence, this argument boils down to how you weight the quality of his pitches versus the natural platoon splits they produce. A slider’s got huge platoon splits, but some might argue that Pineda’s slider is so much better than his change that the platoon split issue is dwarfed.
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2011 Tacoma Rainiers Preview
This our triple-A team. I don’t know about you, but I’m thinking repeat. The new park down there in Tacoma is also looking really nice now and I’m looking forward to checking it out in the coming weeks, as soon as they’re playing at home and I have the free time to get there.
With this, the minor league preview season is done and the minor league regular season starts tomorrow. I won’t have a wrap up for the first Monday, because four games isn’t so much to look at, but things should resume their usual routine on the following Monday. I’ll be working on other projects in the meantime.
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Game 6, Mariners At Rangers
Hernandez vs Wilson, 11:05 am.
Happy Felix Day!
The King takes the hill to try and help the team avoid a sweep and get back to .500. Not too many other guys you’d rather have in this situation, but for the team to win, they’ll have to hit C.J. Wilson – yes, another lefty. Man, am I sick of southpaws. Also, this team could really use a healthy Franklin Gutierrez and a RH 1B/3B/OF/DH type who can hit the ball 500 feet.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Cust, DH
Smoak, 1B
Wilson, 2B
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Moore, C
2011 Jackson Generals Preview
Sometimes, you play with the roster you have and not the roster you would like to have. I mean, look at the Mariners bullpen. The Jackson Generals, in their first season with a new name, are running into a similar issue. They have eight players on their DL to open the season, spanning all throughout the roster. I have no idea what the team will really look like a month from now, but here’s some projections based on the available data. It seems like it could be a pretty solid team with a chance at the playoffs. I guess.
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Game Five Recap
Welcome to the show, Michael Pineda. In reality, it would have been tough for that start to get much better. Besides the one mistake pitch to Moreland that resulted in a triple, he was dominant for the first four innings, throwing strikes with all three pitches and rolling through a good Rangers line-up. It was pretty easy to see why he’s so highly thought of, as he flashed good command of top shelf stuff. There aren’t many guys his size with that kind of repertoire who can throw strikes with regularity – it’s a special combination.
The right-handed hitters in the Rangers’ line-up looked overmatched for most of the game. On the night, Texas’ RHBs went 2 for 17 with a walk and three strikeouts. The left-handed bats, though, were 3-7 with three extra base hits. This is what we’ve been talking about with Pineda; the change-up just isn’t good enough to get lefties out regularly yet, and so he’s probably going to post a pretty big platoon split this year.
That’s okay, as long as he keeps working on it. He doesn’t have to be perfect yet. He’s 22 – warts are allowed. It was great to see him getting good right-handed hitters out tonight. For him to take the leap and be a true frontline starter, he’s going to have to get lefties out too. He wasn’t great at that tonight, but it’s just his first start, and there was no reason to expect him to be great at it tonight.
I was somewhat surprised at the decision to let Pineda pitch to Josh Hamilton in the sixth inning, however. After Andrus bunted Kinsler to second base, Hamilton came up with one out and first base open. Following him were Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, and Nelson Cruz, all right-handed batters. It was a 1-0 game, and a base hit would double the Rangers lead. Josh Hamilton won the AL MVP last year. Walking him would set up a potential inning ending double play. Pineda had dispatched Beltre easily in his last trip to the plate. There were a host of reasons to put Hamilton on base, but Wedge chose to let the kid go after him.
I’m sure there will be some comments about how it was good for the kid’s confidence to give him a chance there, but I’d have had Felix walk Hamilton in that situation too. There’s room for showing Pineda that you believe in him, but there’s also just a time for sound logic and good strategy. Walking Hamilton in that situation would have been the latter.
Overall though, a very nice debut for Pineda. Again, the M’s lose but there are encouraging things to take away – Michael Saunders getting a base hit off of Darren Oliver (one of the toughest LHPs in baseball) was nice to see as well, and there’s not much shame in losing to the Rangers by a run.
There were some frustrating things (Chone Figgins, I’m looking at you), but for now, we’ll stay mostly focused on the positive. Pineda’s debut offered a nice glimpse into what the future could be. It’s not here yet, but it’s not too far off.
Game 5, Mariners At Rangers
Pineda vs Oganda, 5:05 pm.
Just like last night, all eyes are on the M’s starting pitcher tonight, as Michael Pineda makes his big league debut. And, just like last night, I really wish we had an easier landing for the kid, but this is hand that Pineda is being dealt, so he’s going to have to get over his nerves while also shutting down an offense that is destroying the baseball right now.
The nice thing about this match-up is that the Rangers line-up leans pretty heavily to the right side, especially their power hitters. Yes, they have Josh Hamilton, but Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young all hit right-handed, and Pineda won’t need his change-up to get those four out. He can pitch around Hamilton and Mitch Moreland to some degree, knowing that there’s a right-handed bat not too far away if he needs to get an easier out.
Still, I’d imagine he’ll be plenty amped up for his first Major League start, so we’ll have to see how his command is. That’s his biggest strength, after all, and if he’s not throwing strikes, he could be out of the game by the 5th inning. I’d like to see Pineda dominate, but given the competition, I’ll settle for just okay tonight.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Cust, DH
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, C
Kennedy, 2B
Wilson, SS
Saunders, CF