Andrew Miller and today’s draft
So, you may have noticed, but I was hoping against hope that Miller would be there for the M’s. The team has a ton of money to sign him, he’s as much a stellar prospect as anyone about to be drafted is (though, yes, maybe not on the Griffey-Rodriguez level), and while I’m not in favor of drafting for need, the system could really use a pitcher of his talent.
I read the news after I got out of a meeting today, having read Dave’s post, and my reaction as I went down the list was
1) The Royals are fools, I can’t believe it’s true they’re not–
2) oh my gosh, Dave’s right
3) no way, it’s happening
4) this is so awesome
5) yup, that’s my team
Now, here’s the other thing. You’ve also read us heap praise on scouting director Bob Fontaine. I think we all have an enormous amount of respect for him, and if he really wanted to take someone else over Miller, well, he’s better at this stuff than I am. But the quotes supporting the pick are really irrelevant for determining whether that’s what happened, or whether he and Bavasi went to ownership and said “We want to draft Miller, he’s an outstanding pick, but it’s going to take at least $6m to get him and there’s a risk he won’t sign at all”. The team would say the same thing in either case.
And really, we don’t know if Miller’s going to turn out better. He may get injured, or not sign, or take up addictive drug abuse… so I’m not going to spend a lot of energy grinding my teeth and complaining about this.
But if I had to bet, I would bet on two things:
– Andrew Miller will prove to be the superior pick, even if he signs for $6m or $8m
– Ownership, in the same way that the four teams ahead of them did, figured that draft picks are risky anyway, so better to gamble on getting 80% of the player for 50% of the cost than wager more and potentially win big
And it’s that second one, more than anything else, that has me down, because beyond the loss of the pick and its implications for how they want their baseball people to go about putting a team together, it means they’re not learning from their mistakes.
A Reason To Listen To The Game on Radio
Depressed that Andrew Miller wasn’t the pick this morning? Console yourself with a bit of humor from the M’s radio broadcast last night. Despite the quotation marks, this is paraphrased, not verbatim, but I assure you, it’s accurate.
Fairly to Rizzs: “Do you keep in touch with any of your high school friends?”
Rizzs: “Sure, we see them when we’re out on the south side of Chicago. We have a wonderful time. Do you keep in touch with yours?”
Fairly: “I’ve got four in jail, and three out on parole.”
Rizzs (stunned): “… you hung with a good crowd. Aaaand there’s the pitch …”
I love the radio broadcast: it’s so much looser than the telecast, it seems. You learn something new every day.
Draft Day Rumblings
So here’s the deal – in about 100 minutes or so, the Mariners are going to announce their selection with the fifth pick in the first round. Andrew Miller is probably going to be available when they select, and if you don’t know how I feel about Miller, read this.
However, it’s now becoming quite possible that the Mariners will not only have the chance to select Miller, but pass that chance up in favor of another player. The sound you will hear, if that happens, will be me throwing things around the room.
Andrew Miller is, by far, the best prospect in this draft. It’s not even close. Circumstances have conspired to make it likely that the M’s will have a chance to add the best prospect in the draft, one who is absolutely a perfect fit for the organization, and there’s a chance they might screw it up.
If you work in a high rise, you might want to have someone put a mattress outside your window, because in just under two hours, we’re either going to be really, really thrilled, or really, really pissed.
Draft day, woo!
Andrew Miller falls to the M’s over signability concerns! Please oh please oh please!
So cross your fingers, pray to your diety or dieties of choice, and listen to the quite boring broadcast starting at about 10am our time.
At the PI, Andriesen says the team’s “expected to take a college pitcher“.
Now, with the high cost of signing a top pick, most teams stick with college-seasoned players with their top picks, particularly when it comes to pitchers.
It’s close: last year’s first round was 58% college players (28/48 by my count) and 2004 was about the same (25/41).
Jason Churchill’s got a Farm Report column at the PI on the drafts that manages to offer a nice summary of what happened, and quotes some anonymous dudes.
Or, if you want a longer piece that bares its teeth, try the Seattle Times: “M’s off target in recent drafts” takes the M’s to task for poor drafting over the last n years. Includes this quote:
“There is some depth, but I really don’t see a lot of high-end-type guys,” said Deric McKamey, author of the 2006 Minor League Baseball Analyst. “As far as having some standout players who are going to be stud major-league players, I just don’t see it. There just seems like a lot of backup infielder types, middle relievers, that sort of thing.”
I have a hard time believing that McKamey said that, just like that, without additional context. Really, just in Tacoma there’s Asdrubal Cabrera, Adam Jones, that one guy Jim likes… has a famous brother? I forget. Then there’s some guy raised in Australia who hits like a maniac. Not that Jones, to take one, isn’t without risk, but he’s certainly a high-reward player. Jones’ upside is a stellar defensive centerfielder who hits for scary power. If that’s not a possible stand-out, I’m not sure what is.
Anyway. It’s got fun quotes like
“Well, consider that since the Mariners selected Gil Meche in the first round in 1996, they have not drafted a single player in the first round who is currently on their roster.
They have drafted only one other player in the first round  pitcher Matt Thornton, picked in 1998 and now with the White Sox  who is on a big-league roster anywhere.”
1997 – Ryan Anderson
1998 – Matt Thornton
1999 – Heaverlo (supplemental 1st round)
2000 – no pick
2001 – Michael Garciaparra (supplemental)
2002 – John Mayberry
2003 – Adam Jones (supplemental)
2004 – no pick
2005 – Jeff Clement
If I may, that’s kind of a harsh statement. The value of a pick drops dramatically after the first few picks, and because the team was signing free agents by the bushel, they didn’t get many true first round picks. Now, whether that strategy was good or not, we can debate, and certainly they didn’t get any value out of later picks, either (I’m sure if you’ve read USSM for more than a few weeks you’ve come across us slagging the Gillick-Mattox drafts). The Times article mentions this a ways into the article, but it seems like as a quick, top-level stat, it makes it seem like the Mariners had almost 10 years of quality first round picks and came away with nothing, when they didn’t get that.
So, for fun…
Best Players Drafted After Failed M’s Picks
A horribly unfair retrospective
1997 – ugh. Adam Kennedy, maybe?
1998 – Brad Wilkerson
1999 – not alot
2001 – David Wright
2002 – Uh, Jeremy Reed, who went in the second round? I’m reaching here
… and that’s with full hindsight
Also contains a nice quote from Bavasi:
“I’ve said before that no matter what free agent you sign at the major-league level, they will never have the true impact they could have until you have a minor-league system supplying the club with a core of players,” Bavasi said. “When you sign a [Jarrod] Washburn and you’re throwing him on top of the heap you have, all of a sudden his impact is felt at a greater level as opposed to signing guys like that and catching up with the farm system. … The free-agent market will always be important to major-league clubs  we’re not swearing off that  but scouting and player development will always be the lifeblood.”
I don’t understand what that Washburn sentence means, but I entirely agree with the larger sentiment there.
Good News, Bad News
We’re two months into the season, so let’s look at how things have gone. We’ll call this Good News/Bad News, though we realize we might struggle to find equal amounts of Good News.
Good News!
Ichiro! is hitting .339.
Bad News!
The next highest average on the team belongs to Jose Lopez. He’s hitting .280.
Good News!
Speaking of Lopez, he leads the team in home runs, SLG%, and RBI’s.
Bad News!
Jose Lopez also leads the major leagues in sacrifice bunts.
Good News!
Roberto Petagine’s first 3 plate appearances of the year resulted in a home run, a double, and a walk, all as a pinch-hitter. That’s a nifty 1.000/1.000/3.000 line.
Bad News!
His last 24 plate appearances have resulted in 2 singles, 2 walks, and 20 outs. That’s a not-as-nifty .095/.174/.095 line.
Good News!
Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson both went yard twice this weekend.
Bad News!
Their combined 12 home runs on the season is one less than Ty Wigginton has by himself.
Good News!
J.J. Putz has been as good a reliever as you’ll find in baseball.
Bad News!
Eddie Guardado has not.
Good News!
Rafael Soriano looks to be fully healthy and is throwing as well as ever.
Bad News!
Gil Meche looks to be fully healthy and is throwing as poorly as ever.
Good News!
Jamie Moyer has taken crafty veteran status to a whole other level.
Bad News!
King Felix has taken inexperienced 20-year-old status to a whole other level.
Good News!
The M’s have the fifth pick in the draft tomorrow
Bad News!
They’ll probably have a top 5 pick next year, too.
The Times on Beltre steroid rumors
(working down the article request queue)
The Seattle Times ran a Bob Finnigan article on the suspicion that Beltre was on steroids in 2004 and the M’s got sold a bill of goods, so to speak.
I don’t have a strong opinion here. It’s a fairly detailed look at the evidence he’s not, from reasons why he’s struggled to different people, including Beltre, denying he’s used.
I do disagree, though, with the Times’ decision to run this without a clear reason. There’s no one quoted accusing Beltre of using steroids. If no one was willing to put their name on a statement, there’s no story. But the thing is, there are. You can listen to sports talk and hear the hosts fish around the subject (I’ve been asked directly on air if I thought that Beltre juiced), there’s no shortage of people on ESPN or MLB’s forums you can quote. If there’s no pressing reason to run it now, then why run it all? If they’re not running articles on any player someone’s whispered might be have been on steroids, where’s a Pineiro column, or heck, a Sexson column? Was Bloomquist juicing that September call-up? I know it’s always a tough decision on whether the presence of rumors is itself a story, or whether writing a piece like this one gives them legitimancy, and I’m fine with running the article. I don’t understand why they’d run this article now, without putting someone on record as making an accusation that’s newsworthy.
We’re left with a couple of different explanations for Beltre’s 2004:
– fluke
– finally put it all together
– injury forced beneficial changes to approach, when injury healed
– started using steroids in 2004, escaped detection, and then stopped after he got his contract for some reason (pick one: didn’t like the injections/feared for his health/thought it would be funny)
If he has another good season, it’d start to undermine some of those, but unless he has a couple of 2004 seasons, there’s never going to be a way to definitively disprove the contention he used drugs in 2004. And unless evidence surfaces that supports the speculation, there will be no reason to believe the rumors either, and no reason we should spend time trying to refute them.
Beltre in the two hole
Beltre split-o-meter
Small sample size caveats apply
as #2 .357/.400/.357 (14 ab)
as #5 .102/.170/.122 (49 ab)
as #6 .252/.312/.357 (115 ab)
as #7 .308/.379/.346 (26 ab)
April .189/.284/.233
May .264/.302/.355
June .250/.250/.250 (4 AB)
One of the things Bavasi said at the first feed was that Beltre was effective in 2004 in part because he was spreading the ball – and you can see in his 2004 hit chart, he did just that, though he did pull most home runs and, oddly, went opposite-field for most of his doubles.
2005, there’s not as many hits to look at, but there is a pronounced pull: when he got hits, they were usually yanked somewhere between center and right.
To my point, though — the team’s struggled with Beltre since he arrived. Some of it’s trying to work on going to all fields. Some of it’s been his fairly clueless pitch recognition, as Dave’s harped on.
Batting Beltre #2 doesn’t make any sense if you’re trying to put together a lineup that scores more runs, because it means he goes up more. But we’re all for creativity and experimentation here at USSM, and here’s the thing: if Pentland and Hargrove think that putting Beltre at some arbitrary spot in the lineup, like #2, will cause him to make changes to approach or help him solve his pitch recognition issues, I’m all for it.
So I’m going to stop cracking on this until it’s clear that it’s working, or that it’s not. Hargrove’s comments on why he wants Beltre up are about 50% go-getter nonsense and 50% plausible, and maybe it’ll pay off.
Amateur Draft
The MLB Amateur Draft is next Tuesday and Wednesday. The Mariners have the fifth overall selection in the draft. To this point, we’ve spent very little time covering the draft, with the exception of the Andrew Miller article and discussion I wrote a few months ago.
Part of the reduced draft coverage was because I’ve been extremely busy the last few months, but it’s also due to the fact that absolutely no one knows what’s going to happen on Tuesday. Seriously, nobody has any idea. Everything that has been written the past few months could be, and probably will be, thrown out the window by the time the draft rolls around. Stuff I’m writing now could be invalid by the time you read it. There’s just no certainty in this draft at all, and so I’ve avoided speculating about the different possibilities.
Now that we’re only a few days away, though, here’s a look into what could transpire in the first five picks on Tuesday, and what that might mean for the Mariners.
#1: Kansas City Royals
While some have speculated that Dayton Moore’s hiring as the GM means that they’ll take Andrew Miller #1 overall, that conclusion is based on a flawed premise – Moore will have no say in the Royals draft. He won’t officially become GM until June 8th, and he will remain with the Braves through that day. Muzzy Jackson and Daric Ladnier will run the draft for Kansas City, meaning the uncertainty following that pick remains.
The Royals, like everyone else, believe Andrew Miller is the best player in this draft, but aren’t convinced he’s that much better than the other arms, and they’re trying to work out a predraft deal with someone. It could be Tim Lincecum, though that’s unlikely. Luke Hochevar is another name that has been floated, but if you’re looking for a predraft deal, a Scott Boras client probably isn’t your best bet. At this point, literally no one knows what Kansas City is going to do. My best guess is they cut a pre-draft deal with a safe pick after years of getting burned by high-risk draftees.
Dave’s WAG: Brandon Morrow, RHP, Cal
#2: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have been linked to two names almost exclusively the past few months; Andrew Miller and third baseman Evan Longoria. While nothing is set in stone, this appears to be the easiest pick to project. Miller would fit in perfectly with what the Rockies are trying to do, and he’s the consensus top talent in the draft. It’s highly unlikely he gets past Colorado if KC passes on him. If the Royals tab Miller, they turn to Longoria with an eye on trying him as a second baseman.
Dave’s WAG: Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina
#3: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
While it’s been easy to pick on Tampa Bay, they’ve drafted extremly well the past few years, and are now a very well run club, under the eyes of Andrew Friedman and Gerry Hunsicker. They’re going to make a good pick. They’ve been tied to a whole host of names, but the one that makes the most sense, given the teams needs and their current management team, is RHP Brad Lincoln. He’s polished, he’s effective with good stuff and command, and he needs little projection. He’s a perfect fit for the Rays.
Dave’s WAG: Brad Lincoln, RHP, Houston
#4: Pittsburgh Pirates
Like KC, no one has a good feel for where Pittsburgh wants to go. They’ve been tied to Kyle Drabek, mostly due to his father’s success in that city, but they also have a long history of taking college pitching and passing on high-ceiling talent in favor of minimizing risk. This is the organization that took Bryan Bullington over B.J. Upton, after all. Lincoln would be their dream player, and if he goes, they’re probably not happy. Lincecum, Hochevar, and Scherzer are the top arms remaining if the top three goes as I’m guessing, but all are higher risk prospects than Pittssburgh likes. Greg Reynolds, however, fits the mold of what the Pirates are after, even if he’s a big reach at #4; he throws strikes, went to Stanford, and has projection. If they continue to go for lower risk college arms, I think Reynolds is the guy.
Dave’s WAG: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford
#5: Seattle Mariners
The M’s are going to draft a college arm, there’s no doubt about that. The only question is which one. With Miller and Lincoln unlikely to slide to #5, the M’s will probably be picking from the Lincecum/Hochevar/Scherzer/Morrow group. They’ve been tied to Hochevar quite a bit, but no one knows how much of that is real or just a smokescreen.
While Bavasi has a history of preferring high-reward players, Bob Fontaine is running the draft, and he’s a bit more conservative by nature. Fontaine’s also a big proponant of pitcher’s body types, and Lincecum doesn’t fit the mold of what he generally prefers. I don’t see the M’s going for the UW star, but instead picking between Scherzer or Hochevar, unless Morrow falls.
Dave’s WAG: Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri
Now, keep in mind, all of this is heavily subject to change. It’s normal for one of the consensus top talents to fall due to late concerns about signability (Mark Teixeira, Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, Luke Hochevar, etc…). It would be weird if something didn’t happen in the next four days that shook up the top of the draft.
We’ll find out more in the next few days, and we’ll keep you up to date with what we’re hearing. But, the main thing to keep in mind about all the draft rumors floating around right now is that no one has any idea what’s actually going to happen on Tuesday.
USSM on KIRO
I did a random interview with KIRO 710 AM that I understand is airing every other hour this morning. I have no idea how it sounds – I was up late last night doing my tunnel rat impression looking for a roof leak (found) and then trying to contain that, so I’ve sleeping and not listening to the show. Anyway, it’s ranting you’ve heard in one or more forms here. Oh man, am I tired. And it’s going to rain this weekend! #@$@%%!!!
Hibernate Me Later
A ground squirrel can hibernate for up to six months, dull to the world around it, dreaming presumably of assorted nuts. Scientists are studying the rotund rodent in the hopes that its sleep habits may help us develop sci-fi-style techniques to render astronauts’ bodies dormant on long trips into deep space.
I’m neither ground squirrel nor astronaut, but boy, have I been hibernating.
Seems like the hometown nine has been, too. The lack of energy has extended to attendance, as we’ve been documenting (well, those of that have actually been posting).
As I attempt to graduate from Rip Van Winkle’s 12 Step Narcolepsy Seminar, let me break down my impressions of the last eight weeks. The benefit of a lean posting schedule is that I come at this with fresh eyes, and can personally guarantee I’m not repeating myself.
With gloom painted all over the horizon, let’s start there, moving on to the sunshine.
Pessimism
* Last week, I wasn’t able to watch a game against the Twins, so I followed along on my phone. When I saw the wlak-off home run hit the box score, I knew instantly what had happened.
With that, Eddie Guardado has now given up more game-ending home runs than any active pitcher.
Lew Ford’s 10th-inning home run Sunday was the 11th game-ending home run that Eddie Guardado has allowed in his career. That’s the most among active players (one more then Troy Pervical [sic] has allowed) and it’s the most against any pitcher since Randy Myers retired having allowed 12 game-ending home runs.
* Willie Bloomquist has been better than Adrian Beltre this year. This, combined with all those 6/6/06 movie commercials have me wondering about the apocalypse.
* On the topic of dismal visions, there’s always the Baseball Prospectus’ postseason odds report (PECOTA-adjusted, too), which paints a grim landscape of future failure. Sure, no one’s running away with the division, but Oakland tends to peak late, and these days the Mariners might have a hard time beating Danny Almonte, his wife, Olga Petagine and six friends.
It’s not all bad, though. And when you wake from slumbernation, you tend to feel the sun more intensely.
Optimism
A summery tune that’s been stuck in my head lately is “Lesson One” by a Portland duo called Viva Voce. It’s fun, fuzzy indie pop with handclaps. The hook goes like this:
So keep your head up
Things are all right
Not exactly Judith Butler-level complex, but you get the point. Besides, most any message echoed from Tupac is all right with me.
* Jose Lopez. We’ve long been believers, and seeing him tear the cover off the ball is almost as exciting as Hargrove having him bunt is frustrating. (Oops: this is the positive section.) Remember, he’s just 22, and young, inexpensive power-hitting second basemen are as rare as yuppies in Bellingham.
* Ichiro. After a slow start, he’s reverted to the hit-machine perfectionist form we’ve come to expect. Besides, in a year where entertaining baseball has been hard to come by — unless you enjoy watching Base Path Follies, Volumes 1-100 — it’s nice to have a constant source of grace in right field.
* Underperformance by stars. If healthy, Richie Sexson is not going to slug .350 all year. His on-base percentage is also .70 points off his career averages. Sexson will rebound, and when he does, the offense will benefit.
* They called me mad at the university. The newspapers laughed at me, saying that anyone who drafted Yuniesky Betancourt was as “idiot.” Yet despite (because of?) a draft that included the M’s defensive whiz along with Carl Everett and Willie Bloomquist, my team has been in first place nearly all year. Besides feeling good, it gives a ready rebuttal to the “you guys are too hard on Willie/Carl/whoever” haters.
If this is possible for my humble roto squad, then there’s hope for the M’s to get Out of the Cellar like Stephen Pearcy was on the team.
So keep your head up. And if that doesn’t work for you, keep ya head up. Things are all right.