The 2004 defense post
Updated! Now with more goodness! I’ve mentioned I’ve been working on this a couple of times before, and I’m going to go ahead and post instead of waiting for good defensive stats to come out.
The 2004 Mariners finished 2nd in the AL and 6th in the major leagues in defensive efficiency, which is how many balls in play were turned into outs. Now, park effects have something to do with this, but it remains true that the team played good defense. And yet, you’ll remember that I said some terrible, terrible things about Randy Winn to start the season, and early in the year I bitched constantly about what a terrible defense the team was putting on the field.
So what happened?
There were two things. Dave’s mentioned this repeatedly, but I’ll echo him once more: the 2003 team played spectacularly good defense. The outfield, in particular, was best-in-baseball good, by a long way. The dropoff from 2004 to even being a modest top-third defense was huge, and as fans we reacted to that. It was entirely understandable.
The other big thing that happened over last year, was that they got better. Apx Batting average on balls hit into play*, by month:
April .301
May .266
June .271
July .287
August .279
September .259
October .313
* as I couldn’t get complete split data, I used hits/balls in play, with balls in play as outs-k+h-hr
Now, while it doesn’t break down so clearly, you can see the team starts out terribly, gets much better, is okay, then really plays well in September.
A lot of this is Randy Winn. Winn started the year not just worse-than-Cameron, but flat bad. By the end of the year, he was good out there. As good as you can be with that arm, anyway. That overall, I think defensive metrics will show Winn had an above-average defensive season for the position is amazing, because he really did suck early on.
Ibanez was not as bad I expected in left. From Winn, he’s a huge step down, certainly, but I think he too was playing left far better at the end of the year than he was when he started out.
The changes in player personell helped: Jolbert Cabrera, ride him for his bat as I may, helped defensively as he got more playing time after the first month. Spiezio’s defense contributed up, and using him as a 3B/1B player worked well. Between these guys, the anticipated step down from Olerud didn’t happen — if anything, the team got better.
At short, I think Aurilia was better than Lopez, though we’ll see if the stats end up bearing that out, but the team didn’t miss Aurilia at all.
Boone. Ah. This is totally subjective, and there’s no way defensive statistics are ever going to be able to get this fine. But he seemed to be streaky defensively, even more so than you’d expect from a fired-up dude like Boone. Game-to-game, he was hauling baggage around, but when he looked good, he seemed to keep his head in things and not make the boneheaded blunders that were his undoing this year.
I got a little, uh, frustrated not having good numbers, so… it’s bad number time! Range factors and zone ratings are badly flawed ways to compare defense, unless you’re comparing teammates… which I am. Then they’re only sort of bad. Note particularly that in what I’m doing, playing time drops quickly, so the sample on the top guy is much better… anyway, check this out.
First base
Who, Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, Zone Rating
Oleud, .998, 8.38, .843
Spiezio, .986, 8.87, .830
Bucky, .984, 9.31, .778
Jolbert, 1.000, 9.50, .931
Bucky’s ZR looks bad, but other than that the surprise is that Cabrera does look pretty sweet out there, whils Spiezio’s indeed about Olerud’s level. Raul Ibanez, by the way, comes out awful. Like.. Frank Thomas bad.
Second base
Who, Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, Zone Rating
Boone, .978, 4.33, .790
Cabrera, .987, 4.99, .867
Okay, here’s the Boone-off, then
2003 Boone: .990, 4.54, .814
2002 Boone: .989, 4.36, .843
Big decline for Boone this year — consider he’s playing behind substantially the same staff this year as last, too, so that sticks.
Surprising is that Cabrera, caddying, embarassed Boone.
Third base (200+ IP)
Who, Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, Zone Rating
Spiezio, .964, 2.86, .771
Cabrera, .970, 3.11, .864
Leone, .901, 2.71, .773
WFB, .923, 2.44, .683
Hee hee hee. Bloomquist got outplayed by Justin Leone.
What’s also interesting is to see that everywhere there’s enough innings I’m comfortable even looking at the stats, Cabrera shines.
So, to the outfield…
Left field, Ibanez < < Winn, but we knew that.
Center field, Winn, Bocachica and Reed all look about the same, in differnt ways -- weirdly, RF and ZR disagree badly, rating them
RF: Reed (huge drop), Winn, Bocachica
ZR: Bocachica (big drop), Reed, Winn
Generally speaking, here's my caveat on these defensive stats: almost no defensive stat, bad or not, will hide a truly bad or stellar player. When you're working with range factor and zone rating, huge difference are worth paying attention, but like we see here in center field, where there are three guys who appear like they about the same for the position, it's a wash. At that point we want to go to the play-by-play data, which I don't have. Once again, if anyone wants to give USSM many, many millions of dollars in venture funding without the expectation of any return, we'll be happy to look into providing that data.
So anyway, how's that for not being a rabid stathead, huh?
It's also possible the defensive misadventures of Olivo forced the team to pay more attention with runners on... heh.
I learned a couple of important things from all of this.
First, defense is amazingly important. The difference between a 2003 OF and a 2004 version, just defensively, is like adding a star player. You can use defense to cover the weaknesses of your pitchers (turning Hasegawa, Franklin, say, into effective pitchers) beyond just preventing runs.
And second, defense may be more pliable than offense. In April, I would have guessed that Winn would have finished the season maybe ten runs defensively below an average center fielder. He did much better than that.
Which is weird, because I'm a sucker for position switches and think teams should be much more willing to swap guys around, if their defensive skills suit a switch. It would seem that there is some value in leaving a guy out there and having a coach yell at them as they shag balls.
In any event, I'm going to be very interested to see what the 2004 play-by-play stats like UZR say about this team.
Washington Nationals
Well, they’ve got their web page up on MLB.com and merchandise available. That “W” looks really… foo-foo? Frilly? Non-traditional? What’s the word I’m looking for here…
Update: the word I’m looking for is “1969” as the ones being shown off now are, as someone pointed out, the same as the 69-71 Senators hats.
Anyway, I’m looking forward to even more people being confused about Washington D.C. versus Washington state now, though I, for one, would love to have another major league team in town. Run by the USSM crew.
It’s a baffling world
From ESPN.com: Damian Miller, 35-year old catcher, to the Brewers for 3y, $8.75m
Now Miller’s a decent enough random free agnet catcher. But… three years?
The best part is the quote from Miller’s agent:
“The Brewers outbid the Red Sox and Dodgers,” agent Bob Garber said. “Maybe the haves and have-nots are bridging the gap.”
Come on now.
Free Agent Madness
Here’s a signing that won’t get much notice but exemplifies why groups of fans on the outside often feel like the “old school” way of doing things is just so far out of touch with reality that it defies logic.
Juan Castro signed a two year, $2 million contract with the Twins. $1 million a year isn’t that much money for a major league player, really. Its only three times the league minimum. Overall, a pretty minor contract in the budget of the Twins. But look at Castro’s career.
1599 major league at-bats. Career line? .226/.269/.331. That’s worse than Ramon Santiago (.234/.303/.317) and far worse than Willie Bloomquist (.268/.329/.355). It’s worse than what Scott Spiezio (.215/.288/.346) hit last year.
The best comparison for Castro’s career offensive performance? The 2003 and 2004 versions of Jeff Cirillo. So let’s not kid ourselves; Juan Castro cannot hit. At all. He’s not even a replacement level hitter. He’s as close to an automatic out as you’re going to find at the major league level.
Now here’s the kicker. The Twins signed him to lock up his age 33 and 34 seasons, where he’s likely to decline, if that’s even possible. Imagine giving a two year contract to Jeff Cirillo right now.
Sure, Juan Castro can play some nice defense. But there isn’t a level of human defensive performance imaginable that could compensate for his abilities at the plate. Even in his prime, his glove was good enough to make him about as good as most Triple-A players. Now, as he slowly slips into being a shell of his former self, he’s going to collect $2 million from the Twins for the right to make their team worse.
Terry Ryan has done a lot of good things in Minnesota. But I just can’t imagine any justification for giving Juan Castro a two year contract. Just brutal.
M’s Q&A on MLB.com
As mentioned in the comments, always good for a chuckle.
My reactions every time I read this (and I can’t stop):
“What? Why would you ask that?”
“What kind of answer is — what?”
“What?”
I’m continually baffled that there are people out there who write in and want to air their pet theories — and their theories are like “should the M’s go get Ben Davis back… to DH?” (Street’s answer is awesome, by the way)
And then there’s every week’s token factual error, like
The switch-hitting Delgado would seem to fit the Mariners’ most pressing need, but all it takes is one other team to get into a bidding war and it’s goodbye Carlos.
Delgado learned to switch hit? When did he manage that? And considering his career success as a lefty… why?
Feed Reminder
Have you signed up for the Second Annual U.S.S. Mariner Pizza Feed? If the answer isn’t yes, you really should. We’ve already got a nice crowd, but the more, the merrier. We’re confirming special guests left and right, and we’ll start announcing them in the next few weeks. You really should come.
The details:
When?: December 18th from 12 pm to 5 pm.
Where?: Horace Mann Elementary School in Redmond.
Who?: Derek, Jason, Dave, you, and various special guests who you’ll enjoy meeting.
How much>?: $15 per person
Is there food?: Enough pizza, salad, and sides for lunch and a small dinner (New York Vinnie excluded)
Great! Now what? If you’re going to attend, you must do three things:
1. Email us with the name of each person you’re confirming attendance for.
2. You’ll receive an address in response to mail your check to. Payment in advance is required; your spot is not guaranteed until we receive your money.
3. Show up on the 18th.
Bring friends. Bring family. Bring yourself. We’ve got room, and we’ll have plenty of food. Its the best $15 you will spend in December.
Future Forty Updated
Prospect junkies rejoice; a new Future Forty is here. This is the first update since the end of the regular season. I will likely do one more update during the offseason as we head towards spring training. If you’ve got prospect related questions, this would be a great thread for those dicussions.
A few notes from the update:
I’m still pretty down on the farm system. We love King Felix, obviously, but there’s still a significant chance that he’ll suffer a major injury. Reed and Choo are solid prospects with limited potential; neither is a future all-star, to me. After those three, its a collection of guys with injury problems, gaping flaws in their games, or a lack of experience. The top tier of prospects aren’t very good. The strength of the system is the depth in the mid-level talent, as even the guys in the 20-35 range have potential as big league players. Unfortunately, roster limitations are going to make it likely that even if that potential is fulfilled, it will probably be with another organization.
I’m glad I don’t have to figure out who is going to play where in the infield at Wisconsin and Inland Empire next year. Finding playing time for Cabrera, Navarro, Jones, Chen, Tuiasasopo and Castro, all of whom believe they are shortstops or second baseman, is going to be a challenge. They also get to deal with the walking stiff that is Michael Garciaparra in that mix as well. Good luck.
If I had to peg three guys from the farm system as possible Rule 5 picks, I’d probably go with Rich Dorman, Cesar Jimenez, and Brett Evert. Ryan Rowland-Smith is a longshot possibility.
The M’s are going to have to do some more juggling as the offseason progresses. They’d like to bring five or six players into the organization and have only one free spot on the 40-man roster. I’m expecting Aaron Looper to get DFA’d and likely slip through waivers. The other choices will be interesting. Leone, Bloomquist, Dobbs, Rett Johnson, Taylor, Atchison, and Thornton are all vulnerable, but all have fans in parts of the organization. Due to the roster congestion, I think we’ll see several more minor trades made in an effort to clear spots on the 40-man roster.
Smoke does not mean Koskie
It doesn’t matter what Koskie or Koskie’s agent or dog or hairdresser or mother says at this point, he’s not signed until he’s signed.
I also want to mention that the Leone for Third thing on Koskie was a joke, a parody of MLB.com’s writing.
It was not an actual article. Koskie has not signed. Stop putting this article in the comments. I’m really tired of deleting them, and I’m || close to giving up and granting people the benefit of whether they’re trolling or confused.
Thank you.
Update: here’s Dave’s post on why Corey Koskie’s a bad idea.
Marginal wins
Ben Murphy, who is a fine fellow and highly recommended, wrote up this year’s Marginal Wins article at Baseball Prospectus, continuing the work of Doug Pappas, who I hung out with at the Mariners game where the power went out, and was a fine fellow himself.
To spoil the article for you: marginal wins is a measure of how well a team spent their money. It’s cool because it doesn’t care where you get your wins, or how you went about constructing the team. All that matters is how many wins you got, and how much money it took you go get those wins, compared to how much money you’d have to spend on a team of minimum-salary guys who’d lose many, many games.
The Mariners were second-worst in the majors, with $5,079,433/marginal win. The A’s spent $1,212,858. The average team spends about $1,855,682 for every marginal win.
There are some drawbacks to marginal wins in evaluating the worth of a front office, particularly in that a GM can inherit a lot of really bad contracts and that’ll show up (and conversely, a GM taking over a team with a good, deep farm system will have quality, cheap players they may not have been responsible for developing). But even then, it’s an excellent metric for how relatively good an organization has done assembling their team and running their operations.
And the 2004 Mariners were awwwwwwwwwwwwwful.
Rolling contracts
Kris Benson to the Mets, 3y, $22.5m. I once hoped for great things from Kris Benson, and now $7m/year seems excessive.
Glendon Rusch signed a 2y, $4m deal too.
I don’t know what to make of these deals, except to say that hauling Meche to arbitration looks like a better idea with each pitcher signing.