The New Meche
Man, I switched over to the veggie dogs tonight from the Ivardog, and I think I might have gone a little crazy with the onions.
Anyway. I don’t think it’s as useful to look at K ror BB rate as it is to look at percentage of outcomes. Did anything really change from the early Meche to late Meche?
Yes, clearly.
Meche’s walk rate went from 14% of batters he faced to 4%. His HR rate went up by half, from 3% to 5% though two hundred at-bats in either direction isn’t enough that I’d really want to draw conclusions from it. He’s striking out about 19% of the batters he faces. And that’s in Safeco, too, which makes the HR rate even more eye-popping.
An average pitcher’s rates are (and I’m doing rough estimates here, please forgive me if I screw up) about 8% walk rate, 15% K rate, and 2.5% HR rate.
So Meche has turned into almost a super-powered Franklin. He’s striking guys out with the same curve he’s been teasing us with for years, but not dominating, and he’s walking almost no one. The price he seems to be paying is that when he can’t get the K, he’s coming back over the plate and taking his chances. Sometimes that means the pitch is crushed.
If he can keep this up, munch innings, he’s an average major league starter. A bit of an odd one, but there are many different ways to get to any particular spot. Now, what’s that worth — $2m? $3m? Is the risk of re-injury large enough that it’s too expensive for a gamble?
Bow down to Ibanez
Okay, first — Ibanez looks baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad at first. We can argue about whether he’d get better with regular play, but he’s baaaaaaaaaad right now.
HR for him was his first since Auguest 21st, his second since returning from injury. After the All-Star break Ibanez has hit for average but almost no power at all: his line is .292/.344/.400 compared to .262/. 344/.490 in the first half of the season. If we wanted a hollow OBP left-handed first baseman, we’d have been better off with Olerud.
All hail Gil Meche
Something for everyone tonight.
For the Meche-as-awesome crowd: his first shutout since 2000. Only 1 walk.
For the Meche-as-not-awesome crowd: only 4K in nine innings of work, required a bizarre Manny mistake to get the shutout.
For the organization-as-dumb crowd: threw 129 pitches in the effort.
Your health at Safeco Field
You may remember when Safeco Field opened that it had a little run in with the King County Health Board. Since then, you may not have heard anything.
You might want to bookmark this link. Then look it up before you’re thinking of eating at the park next time. I haven’t figured out how to read the numbers yet (S = suite, HIH = Hit it Here, but C = Terrace Club? M? B?), and connecting where you ate to the report’s not easy.
Like let’s say you got sick after you ate at the hot dog stand in early August.
Routine Inspection/Field Review 08/12/2004
20-Food workers not washing hands after coughing, sneezing, or otherwise contaminating hands.
-Handwashing facilities not maintained, accessible, stocked.
Ugh. That coughing/sneezing bit, by the way — seems to be the most common serious violation I’ve seen looking through these.
I got food poisoning from the sushi stand a year ago, easily one of the worst experiences of my life. Mmm… sushi. Had good seats that day, too. I’m pretty much SOL on days I get a good seat, now that I consider it. I note that last year they were cited for ‘food on floor’ which is where you really want your raw fish to be. And also on this note, I want say that for that particular incident there was no doubt who the guilty party was.
Still, relative to other establishments, it’s not really that bad. Search for local watering holes yourself. I frequently hang out at the King Street Bar & Oven before games, and it just got dinged as badly:
Routine Inspection/Field Review 09/02/2004
12
-Lighting and ventilation not provided, maintained, cleaned.
-Foods not protected from actual and potential contamination (uncovered, double stacked, or not under a sneeze guard).
-Food stored on floor.
-Floors, walls, ceiling improperly installed, maintained, cleaned.
My favorite violation is the visiting clubhouse kitchen:
Routine Inspection/Field Review 08/12/2004
58-Improper hot holding of potentially hazardous foods because of poor equipment design or maintenance, or not being operated correctly (129 degrees F and below).
-Hot potentially hazardous foods not properly cooled.
-In-use utensils not properly stored.
What’s the big deal, the Yankees get some bad meat, right?
Anyway, the site’s frequently really slow or down (mmm.. tax dollars at work…), but it’s worth checking out.
I should also point out that one of the reasons food isn’t safe at Safeco is that volunteers staff so many of the stations. If you bring in the Prisoner’s Friend Society to run one of the stands, the volunteers are probably going to get a crash course in food safety and then be put into an extremely high-pressure, high-volume job in which they have no long-term interest in the business itself. And while I’m reluctant to say that restaurant workers in general are dramatically more dilligent about safety, it’s their ass on the line, their job, and they should be regularly updated on regulations, etc (I’m sure now someone’s going to comment in the threads about their teenage recklessness in not cleaning the shake mixer at McDonald’s).
Minor notes
With George Sherrill getting shut down for the year, the M’s called up Randy Williams so that Melvin could continue to play mix-and-match with his bullpen. Williams performance at Tacoma wasn’t much to write home about, but he has his fans in the scouting community. He pitched much better in the second half after adding some movement to his 4-seam fastball, and he could be a moderately effective LOOGY. Of course, there’s no chance he sticks on the 40-man through the offseason, so if he performs well in September, he’s simply increasing his odds of getting nabbed on waivers.
Also, with another loss today, the M’s have closed to just one game back of Kansas City in the Justin Upton Sweepstakes. The Royals grasp on the #2 pick is paper-thin at this point. We won’t catch Arizona for the worst record in baseball, but they are unlikely to select Upton #1 overall next year thanks to the ongoing negotiations with Stephen Drew. I’m not rooting for the M’s to lose, but you better believe I’m rooting for the Royals to win and win often.
Fan-bought bricks under 101
There’s an additional issue with the Section 101 seats I haven’t touched on yet that several people have mentioned in the letters they’ve written: the Mariners are breaking their word (if not their contract) to those people who spent a good bit of money to buy a brick with a little message on it, and they’d be able to come see their contibution forever and feel a sense of pride.
I didn’t buy a brick, as at the time I was in college and had better things to do with my money like feed myself. But maybe someone here can speak more specifically to the deal they made with the Mariners — were they promised that the bricks would always be visit-able, for instance? I think it was clearly implied, but was it in the fine print?
Also, not to flog this too much, but if you haven’t complained already about the center field landing being taken over by bleachers, it’s a good time to do it. The team’s aware people are unhappy and they’re “evaluating” the issue for next year, but more importantly the local writers are aware of it even if they haven’t chosen to write about it, and getting someone in print to write this up means many thousands more people will find out and get mad (because, let’s be honest, the Times/PI sports sections still reach more people than we do).
Random stuff
I think I need to post before Derek completely takes over and we have to rename this thing U.S.S. Zumsteg. So, here’s a collection of random Mariner-related statistical quirks.
In the past 36 games, Ichiro has 73 hits. Dan Wilson has 66 hits all year.
Speaking of Dan Wilson:
Wilson, since the all-star break: .162/.234/.191
National League pitchers in 2004: .146/.160/.189
The only difference between Dan Wilson at the plate and the average pitcher is Wilson occasionally gets walked.
While we’re talking about catchers, Miguel Olivo is hitting .227/.288/.445 and has 40 strikeouts in 128 at-bats since coming over in the Garcia trade. Justin Leone hit .216/.298/.441 and had 32 strikeouts in 102 at-bats before he broke his wrist. You never hear anyone say that Olivo is a 4-A hitter, do you?
Let’s drive one final nail into the “Willie Bloomquist will hit better with regular playing time” myth, shall we? Before the all-star break, as a utility player, he hit .250/.288/.316. Since the break, as a semi-regular, he’s hit .232/.269/.313.
For as much as we talk about Ichiro being a streak hitter, how about Randy Winn? His OPS by month this year: .603, .676, .863, .971, .788, .648. This isn’t a new thing, either. Last year: .664, .829, .479(!), .957, .770, .871.
Last offseason, four corner outfielders signed the exact same contract, 2 years for $6 million; Jose Cruz Jr, Reggie Sanders, Rondell White, and Jose Guillen. They all signed after Raul Ibanez “set the market” with his deal. Using VORP rather than raw stats to give Ibanez the bump for hitting in Safeco, here are the five side by side:
Guillen: 39.1
White: 23.4
Sanders: 21.6
Cruz: 15.4
Ibanez: 14.1
Hmm, I should find a positive one to wrap this up on. Okay, here we go. Bobby Madritsch has allowed 3 HR in his first 60 major league innings, which would put him on pace to allow 10 homers in a full 200 inning season. That’s just an absurd rate of keeping the ball in the park. If we look at it by home runs allowed per batter faced, Madritsch’s performance so far is about as good as it gets. He’s allowing 1 HR every 80 batters he faced. How good is that? Here’s a list of the best starting pitchers at keeping the ball in the park this year (minimum 100 innings).
1. Tim Hudson: 1 HR every 159.8 batters
2. Kris Benson: 1 HR every 80.6 batters
3. Jaret Wright: 1 HR every 77.0 batters
4. Carlos Zambrano: 1 HR every 62.1 batters
5. Carl Pavano: 1 HR every 59.0 batters
If Madritsch qualified, he’d rank third in the majors by this metric. And this list is dominated by awesome pitchers. Obviously, the above five are all having terrific years. The top 20 includes names like Roy Oswalt, Freddy Garcia, Jake Peavy, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Brad Penny, and A.J. Burnett. There’s a few headscratchers (Jeff Fassero, one every 55.1 while pitching in Coors? Seriously?), but by in large, if you keep the ball in the park at the rate that Madritsch is, you’re probably pitching like an all-star. Also, Tim Hudson’s performance this year has been other worldly. He’s giving up half as many homers as the next best guy.
Oh, and if you want a comparison to the rest of the M’s staff, it’s not quite as pretty.
Moyer: 1 HR every 19.4 battters (worst in majors)
Franklin: 1 HR every 25.2 batters
Meche: 1 HR every 26.4 batters
Pineiro: 1 HR every 28.4 batters
Madritsch only gave up 3 HR’s in 62 innings for Tacoma, so this has the makings of more than a good run. If he can keep the ball in the park consistently, he’s going to have a great deal of success.
ESPN: Worldwide leader in fact-checking
Wait, no…
John Kruk’s latest column of garbage includes this:
SHORTSTOP: Rich Aurilia, Seattle Mariners — Right, the Mariners again. Hey, they aren’t in last place by accident. Well, Rich is out in San Diego now — he wore out his welcome in Seattle after 73 games. The M’s didn’t trade him, either. Outrighted him. Kicked him to the curb. He wasn’t that expensive ($3 million per), but when you hit .241 with four homers and 28 RBIs, any price is too much.
Really, John? That’s weird because the Mariners actually traded him to San Diego for a PTBNL. Also, $3.5m, which if you round, is $4m. Doesn’t anyone — seriously, anyone — even proof-read what goes up on ESPN.com anymore?
Side rant: ESPN’s quest to diversify and wean itself off sports coverage may have built its audience, but it cost them serious fans like me, and I would bet that young ESPN would kick current ESPN’s ass if young ESPN launched right now with solid financial backing (except that current ESPN could easily revert… but that’s not my point).
More compare and contrast:
CATCHER: Mike Piazza, New York Mets — I know Mike has been hurt, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been a disappointment
comes after
FIRST BASE: Carlos Delgado, Toronto Blue Jays — […] Second, this guy used to be an offensive force. Now? Well let me ask you this: Outside of the trade talk and that story about the national anthem, have you even heard of Delgado this year?
Yes. One thing I heard was that he was injured, which I guess Kruk missed.
… Actually, I don’t want to go off on a rant here, I wanted to point out that ESPN can’t get even the most basic facts about transactions right.
Madritsch: 126 pitches
Well, Derek, you beat me to that one. 7-0 lead, meaningless game in a lost season… hell, why not let him pitch the 9th as well? Madritsch’s starts, by pitches, have run: 105, 117, 119, 109, 118, 101 and now 126, for a 114 average. That’s not a horrible workload, but it’s not exactly taking things easy, either. Tonight was a perfect example of a situation where you can get your starter out an inning early with little or no effect on the game.
Oh, and that’s two games in a row in which Ichiro has bunted with a runner on second and two outs. He’s going to love playing for Don Baylor next season (don’t worry, that’s a joke).
M’s win! M’s win!
Finally, I can return to posting regularly.
For reasons best left unstated, today involved me falling over from lack of sleep about mid-afternoon. When I woke up and turned on the game, the M’s were up 7-0 and Madritsch was pitching like I’d always thought he should have been pitching, against the Red Sox.
My immediate reaction — and I’m not kidding at all — was to think “Did I actually wake up to go watch the game? Because this seems exactly like the kind of weird dream I’d have falling asleep while thinking about the Mariners game that night.”
Turns out no.
Why did Madritsch go out in the eighth, ahead 7-0, having already thrown 108 pitches? It took him over twenty pitches to get through the seventh, he was throwing a lot of balls, and wasn’t going to finish the game. Why not pull him, keep him a little fresher for the next start? 126 pitches isn’t a death knell, though it’s made worse because he was throwing the last (what, 40? pitches) while increasingly tired. What’s the point here — the season’s meaningless, the game is well in hand, he’s running out of steam — what gain is there from running Madritsch out for the eighth?