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The new Future Forty is up and there are some fairly significant changes from the July edition. When I updated the list last month, I didn’t have much in the way of strong reports that I trusted from the Northwest League and absolutely nothing from Arizona, so Casey Craig was the only player on the list not playing in full-season ball. Despite knowing that some of the players in Everett and Peoria were more talented than others on the list, I just didn’t feel comfortable placing them in the Future Forty without scouting reports from people I trusted who have been doing this for 20+ years. Since I’m not in a position to see these guys myself, I rely pretty heavily on the reports I get from scouts who watch them play and are nice enough to give me the rundown. Nearly all of these scouts work for clubs other than the Mariners and aren’t giving me too much spin; what I get from them is mostly what they really believe.
In the past month, though, I’ve gotten quite a few reports from the NWL and AZL and feel confident enough in their consensus to add 4 short-season league players to the list. Give a hearty welcome for the debuts of Aquasox shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, second baseman Yung-Chi Chen, and starting pitcher Shawn Nottingham, as well as a Peoria shortstop you may have heard of, Matt Tuiasosopo. The reports on Cabrera are glowing; comparisons to Barry Larkin, Edgar Renteria, and Michael Young. His defense is universally praises and his bat is more impressive than most expected. One of the scouts also saw Jose Lopez in Everett and claims there is no comparison; Cabrera is leaps and bounds ahead of Lopez at the same age. Lopez is obviously a better prospect, but that’s a pretty big compliment from a scout who thinks I’m totally off base on Lopez (I’m a pretty well known skeptic of his realistic performance).
The praise for Chen, Nottingham, and Tuiasosopo was more muted, but still pretty resounding. There is a lot of interest in seeing if Chen will play regularly in the Olympics, and most feel he is too good for the Northwest League. Nottingham got high marks for his command and competitiveness, but his maturity was called into question by everyone who saw him. I didn’t hear the popular Travis Blackley comparison, but “Bobby Livingston with a better fastball” suits me just fine. Tui is hitting the tar out of the ball in Arizona, though his swing is still inconsistent and his defense is getting mixed reviews. No one outside of the Mariners organization thinks he’s a shortstop long term, but everyone agrees that his bat has the potential to play just about anywhere.
A lot has been made recently about the Mariners depth of shortstops, and indeed 5 players have SS listed next to their name on the Future Forty. The aforementioned Lopez, Cabrera, and Tuiasasopo are joined by Michael Morse and Adam Jones, giving the M’s apparent depth at the position. However, Cabrera is the only one who doesn’t have a pretty significant amount of detractors when discussing their defensive abilities. Morse’s move from shortstop is a foregone conclusion. Lopez is most likely a 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman long term, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the M’s shuffled him around much like they did Carlos Guillen in his early years. Tuiasosopo is a rightfielder in most minds, and despite a recent power surge, questions remain about Adam Jones’ offensive potential and whether his 95 MPH arm will eventually be the key that gets him to the majors.
Anyways, that’s a pretty brief rundown, but for all the information, click the big link on the left and enjoy.
Eddie Guardado has been placed on the 15 day DL with a dead arm; Walk Machine Matt Thornton has been recalled from Tacoma to take his place.
Lots of emails asking our opinion on the deals over the weekend, especially the Dodgers deal. I’ll try to make that post tonight. Brand spanking new Future Forty coming tonight as well. And, since I’m mentioning prospects, Chris Snelling is alive! He made his season debut in Peoria last night and should rejoin Tacoma at some point this month.
Quick note: the massive size of the front page (because we post long, and frequently) meant that
large readership * massive page = huge bandwith bills for Derek
so I’m working to chop it down from a full week to a couple of days, after which they get archived. I’m doing some stuff on layout and posts to make things more accessible, but that’s still a little ways off.
I’m disappointed that the M’s didn’t get any better offers for Villone moreso than I am that they didn’t move him. I was surprised at how mediocre the actual deals were that the M’s could have made, and in that context, I think the argument that his value to the club now is greater than the potential future value that the prospects would have brought has some merit.
While realizing that this season is lost and the actual win-loss column matters little in the grand scheme of things, the Mariners are still an entertainment product. Getting beat 13-2 while Cha Baek or Matt Thornton take lumps while they should be in Tacoma is not entertaining or helpful to anyone’s development. In this case, Villone’s presence on the roster is not blocking anyone in Tacoma who should be in Seattle, and his removal would necessitate a premature call for someone who simply isn’t major league ready and could use the Triple-A innings.
Toss in the fact that there is still a chance he could be a waiver trade candidate during August (though it’s unlikely) and I’m not terribly upset that he didn’t get moved for what they were offered. I wish teams liked him more than they do, but the market for Villone just wasn’t very high.
In all, I can’t say I really disagree with how Bavasi handled the situation Saturday. The offers the M’s got just weren’t very good. I wouldn’t have pulled the trigger on the Burroughs deal because of Payton’s contract. I still believe that the M’s best chance to contend soon is to spend a lot of money this offseason, and giving $4 million to Jay Payton is $4 million they don’t have to give to Beltre, Beltran, Drew, Hidalgo, Garciaparra, etc…
The issue I have with how the deadline was handled was the M’s strategy, but this is nothing new. I’ve made it pretty clear that I think their best course of action was to remove as many ’05 contracts as possible, then rebuild the team’s core in the offseason through free agency. The organization decided not to do this, however, and in the context of that decision, they did fine. Fans are complaining about another deadline passing with no action, but the M’s made their huge deal a month ago, getting a ransom price for Freddy Garcia. Had they made this move yesterday instead, they simply would have been out an extra $1 million in Garcia’s salary, as well as having less time to acclimate Olivo, Reed, and Morse to their way of doing things.
Realistically, the M’s just didn’t have that many pieces to move. Now, it’s fair to say that’s because Pat Gillick and Bill Bavasi have put together back-to-back disastrous offseasons and signed a remarkable number of bad contracts, but we’ve been down that road before, and at this point, we’re preaching to the choir.
All in all, I think the M’s did about as much as they could have. If someone else was in charge, I might be upset that they weren’t more creative and proactive trying to create deals, but I’ve come to accept that this management team is neither creative nor proactive, and my expectations have been lowered thusly. Within the context of receiving offers for players they wanted to move and evaluating which deals to make, they did fine.
I have to say I’m a bit disappointed by the lack of move, though I guess I understand. If Dave’s right about Myers (they’ll wait to see if someone gets desperate), then that could work out better. I still would have moved Villone, but only because I’m scared of how much they’re going to pay him next season.
The Sean Burroughs thing sure is interesting, though. And, gosh darn it, I would have taken on Jay Payton to do it. His contract isn’t nearly as bad as Dave suggested — $1.5M this year, $3.5M next year and a $50K buyout (or $4M option) for 2006. Sure, $4M (salary plus buyout) is way too much for his services next season, but c’mon, you’re talking about a 23-yo 3B with the sort offensive game we keep hearing is perfect for Safeco. He’s cheap and under club control for at least three more seasons. Ah well.
I would have traded Guardado, too, but I guess that’s because I don’t value closers nearly the same way the M’s do. As it stands, they’re probably going to be stuck paying him $6M next season, not to mention the $1M bonus he’s going to get this year for finishing 60 games (why doesn’t ESPN keep this stat?).
Okay, time to spill the beans. The M’s decided not to make any moves today. They feel that Myers is still a good candidate to be dealt in August, as non-contending teams won’t put in waiver claims on him, and they’ll be able to ship him off somewhere in the next four weeks. Everyone else is sticking around for the rest of the year. Here’s a recap of what they walked away from, all of which will be pretty strongly denied by the front office if asked directly. It’s just what they do. Please don’t shoot the messenger:
First, the “big move” I alluded to last night that I really wish could have happened. San Diego put 23-year-old third baseman Sean Burroughs in play, and at one point, it seemed like the M’s and Padres were getting close to coming to an agreement. The M’s apparently offered a package of Hansen, Justin Leone, and Jamal Strong for Burroughs, which the Padres eventually declined. The counter included the Mariners swallowing the contract of Jay Payton. As much as I like Burroughs, I’m glad the M’s didn’t take on Payton’s abysmal contract. Still, thoughts of Burroughs for a few spare parts made me jump up and down, and in my opinion, would have been a better return for what we gave up than the Garcia deal. It just couldn’t get done.
The San Francisco Giants made a decent offer for Randy Winn last week, which included picking up the remainder of his contract. The players offered in return were marginal prospects, but Bavasi was initially leaning towards making the move. After consulting with the coaching staff, they decided to not move Winn, as Melvin believes he’s an underrated player and didn’t want to lose him. Don’t ask me why Bob Melvin gets a say in these matters, as he’s very unlikely to be managing this club next year. Several teams, including Philadelphia, made similar offers for Winn in the past few days and were rebuffed. The M’s wanted a major league caliber player in return. There was some talk that the Phillies might be willing to part with Chase Utley if they could get Villone and Winn together, but they decided to go another direction.
The market for Villone was essentially one average prospect. At least 6 teams made offers on him, all in the same general range. Philadelphia offered the same package that they eventually sent to Cincinatti for Todd Jones. The Braves offered Matt Merricks for Villone, then shipped him to LA for Tom Martin. None of the offers for Villone would have returned a strong prospect, and the organization decided they’d be better off letting him soak up innings the rest of the year rather than taking on a guy who they aren’t in love with.
The M’s didn’t like any of the guys in play for Mike Myers. It was almost all relief prospects and low-level longshots, so they figured they’d hang onto him, see if a team gets desperate and improves their offer in the next couple of weeks. Can’t say I really disagree with this thinking. It can’t hurt to wait, and someone would claim him on waivers if they ever decide they just want to dump the rest of his contract.
The Cubs and Giants made strong runs at Eddie Guardado, but the M’s took him off the market. They value closers very highly and didn’t feel they’d be able to replace him next year if they dealt him now. I don’t know specifically what the Cubs offered, but I do know that every club that asked about Angel Guzman was told no. The Giants package didn’t include Matt Cain or Merkin Valdez, the two jewels of their system.
The market for Bret Boone never really got off the ground, party because the M’s made it known that they didn’t really want to move him. There were a few teams who would have had interest if the M’s were willing to eat a decent amount of his contract next year, but they decided to hang onto Boone and hope he rebounds. Expect him to be the opening day second baseman for the M’s next year.
Jolbert Cabrera drew moderate interest, but the M’s plan on bringing him back next year at his $1.5 million option and declined to move him.
There was never any talk about Edgar Martinez, Jamie Moyer, or Dan Wilson. The M’s had no interest in moving any of the three and were upfront with each team that called about that.
I’ll post my analysis of of the non-action later.
If you want to know just how insane rumor mongering can be, here’s two messages that I got at almost exactly the same time.
“Nomar to the cubs in a 3 way. They get Orlando Cabrera from Montreal. Theo screwed up.”
“Hey, Nomar’s going to the Cubs, 4 way trade, Red Sox getting Cabrera from Expos and Clement from Cubs. Epstein pulled off a winner.”
Seriously, both of these come from really good sources. Personally, I wish MLB would just make the trade deadline into some huge TV special like the draft. Everyone gets a war room, a delegate on the floor, and trades are announced to a nation wide audience and a room of screaming fans. Who wouldn’t watch this?
From all appearances, the M’s didn’t make a move. There are several deals being looked over by the commissioner’s office right now that should be announced shortly, but it doesn’t seem like any of them involve the M’s.
Today’s starting shortstop: Jose Lopez. He takes the roster spot vacated by Dave Hansen.