So, here’s the deal on the Olerud DFA, as it was related to me. They had a deal for him that he shot down (to SF for J.T. Snow), as was his contractual right. The market for Olerud exists, but is very soft. Three teams have expressed interest in picking him up if the M’s pay a portion of his contract (or, in Snow’s case, take back another expiring contract to offset some of the difference). The M’s have been unable to find a fit with a team that Olerud is comfortable waiving his no-trade for. He would prefer that the team wait a bit longer and see if a new contender for his services arises that would be preferable to the current suitors. The M’s would rather make the move now, seeing as they’ll eat an extra $700,000 of his salary between now and the trade deadline if they keep him on the roster.
The team believes Olerud will be claimed on waivers, and they’ll save $3.4 million that they would owe him the rest of the season. No-trade rights do not apply to waiver claims, and any team, including the ones he has declined a trade to, will be able to take him on. It is possible that if he makes it to San Francisco, the M’s will agree to take J.T. Snow for a non-prospect in an effort to convince the Giants to claim Olerud.
Baseball wise, on the surface, this move doesn’t make sense. Olerud has, beleive it or not, been one of the Mariners best performers this year. His defense and on base percentage are still valuable, and replacing him with Bucky Jacobsen is going to make the team worse. With Dave Hansen likely to be gone within the next week, a roster spot was going to be open very shortly. However, the M’s see an opportunity to clear several million in cash off the roster, and they’re taking it.
Now, here’s the annoying part; that cash isn’t going to help the club. The team’s budget for next year, which will determine all offseason transactions, will not be affected one bit by what the M’s do during the season. The team will simply turn a larger profit for 2004 than they would have before, but don’t believe that saving money on Olerud’s contract is going to make it more likely that Carlos Beltran or Adrian Beltre will be coming to Seattle next year. Every team treats their budget this way, so this isn’t a unique way of the Mariners screwing their fans, but rather the organization continuing with a baseball tradition that has been going on for years.
I can’t say this is a bad move for the M’s. Rightfully, they decided to give Bucky some playing time, and they decided they’d rather not pay John Olerud $3 million the rest of the year to be a backup first baseman. In their shoes, with a chance to save that much money, this is probably the right call. But, unfortunately, all this really is doing is putting the team even further in the black for this year while making it even more likely that we lose 100 games. The on-field product is being degraded with the sole intent of increasing margins. That is what is behind this move, and as a fan, that’s a tough pill to swallow, even if it is a defendable transaction.
The M’s need some good P.R. in a big way. Most of their fans are angry or apathetic, and they have lost almost all of the goodwill garnered by their tremendous run of the last five years. The M’s have an opportunity here to win fans back; announce that every dime saved in cost cutting this season is going directly into 2005 payroll. Tell the fans that the $3 million saved on John Olerud is going to be spent acquiring talent for next year. Invest that savings in your on-field product. Show the fans that these transactions benefit them, and they have a hope of something to look forward to. Give us hope. Don’t give yourself a better bottom line.
And in the interest of balancing Jason’s positivity, I want to point that the organization’s pocketing cash and lying about it. Again. Their go-to man for distributing this bunk? Bob Finnigan, Boy Reporter.
Contained in this latest piece:
– Early-season moves like Cabrera meant that Sasaki’s savings went from $7 million to $5 million
– The $5m that was left went to pay off Kevin Jarvis’ 2005 deal
– The Garcia/Davis trade saves the team about $4m combined, leaving $4m in the budget
– Whatever money they have left over from the budget this year goes away (Can that savings be added to next year’s payroll budget? Apparently not, according to Lincoln. “It doesn’t work that way,” he said. “You close the books on one year and turn the page.”)
All lies. Before the season, the team made a big deal about having a mid-season acquisition fund of about $5m. This budget included Kevin Jarvis, Garcia, everything. Sasaki leaves, the team now has ~$13m of wiggle room. Jarvis’ buyout doesn’t suddenly jump on this year’s budget: they always knew they were going to have to eat his contract or at least a huge chunk of it… it was the price they paid to dump Cirillo. If you buy their argument that years run separate books (bunk) then his buyout for next year counts next year, right?
Anyway. They trade Garcia/Davis, including cash, and come out with $17m in cash. Now, when they call up the AAA guys, they’re going to make the major league minimum instead of the ridiculously low money they were making in the minors… but three slots for a whole year gets you up just past $1m in payroll, plus the $5m they admit’s in the budget — there’s no way that somehow the team left the other $11m lying around in a duffel bag and someone stole it. That much money is heavy, and difficult to move (unless you do it electronically, of course).
And let’s take the larger issue of year-to-year books. This is such a crazy thing to say, I don’t even have a funny analogy about how stupid it is.
When Sasaki left, and the M’s made a big deal about how they didn’t have the money yet, Dave mocked them by saying it was like having a budget, and knowing that you weren’t going to have to buy one of the items later. You have the money, and you know in the future you won’t be spending it. You don’t have to sit on it, scratching yourself, until that day comes and you really didn’t have to spend it after all.
This is the same thing with the team. Let’s say I have a business that runs makes small David Cameron desktop bobbleheads. You press the base and Dave says something insightful about a prospect he’s seen… they’re USB-enabled, hook up to your computer and download new stuff… whatever. I start the company in 2003 with $100 and make one doll, which I sell for $150. Then people everywhere realize Dave’s predictions on minor leaguers are insanely accurate and they want this doll. I make a million of them at $125 a piece. My company’s now worth a ton of money, and I have enough money in the bank to do all kinds of crazy stuff. But wait–
The New Year comes! Poof, all of the money I had in the bank disappears. I’m broke! I can’t afford to make another doll! What happened to all that money? Who knows! Once you close the books on a year and turn the page, all that went before is closed to you. Someone’s got my money… I just don’t know who. Damn those accountants!
The Mariners make more money than 27 teams in baseball. They take their profits out of the franchise using standard book keeping tricks teams have used for ages, by applying it to hypothetical past losses the ownership group ran up, and a small portion of it they take openly as the declared net. If they saved $10m they had budgeted for payroll and revenues remain constant, that $10m goes somewhere.
It will not go into the team or fulfilling the promises the franchise has made to fans and the region. When the team said they were budgeting for x number of fans and they’d be able to spend more if more turned out, fans turned out and the team did nothing. When they spend, they overstate spending. When they save money, they make the savings go away. And people wonder why I get wound up when I pay extra sales tax on my beer within the Facilities District.
Doesn’t Finnigan, and the paper that prints him, have some obligation to the truth? If he needs to be a mouthpiece to get access to write stories that sell papers, that’s one thing. But to unquestioningly print lies? Why is no one with a press badge, from the guy who covers the sports team to the people who cover the White House, willing to call a lie a lie? And why is it okay for Lincoln to lie like this, continously and openly, just because it advances his business interests? This stuff drives me crazy. The Seattle Times is a newspaper. Newspapers aren’t what they used to be, but this year the Seattle Times was nominated for a Pulitzer Prize in the Public Service category for an amazing series by Christine Willmsen and Maureen O’Hagan on sexual misconduct by male coaches in prep sports who went undisciplined and unpunished (seriously, it was great work, and I’d link to it here if the Times didn’t require registration). In 2003 they were finalists in two categories for work I didn’t like as much… back in 1997 they won two, for Investigative Reporting and Beat Reporting. Even in the sports section, even in the same sport, the Times runs Larry Stone, who writes long and thoughtful pieces on baseball, well written and loaded with insight and intelligence.
Off the same rollers, in the same newsprint, comes whatever lie-of-the-day Howard Lincoln wants to gently wrap that day’s rotten fish with. The Times should be ashamed. I used to deliver the Times, and read every newspaper I came across for years. Now I don’t care. I know that the simplifications and errors in the sports section have their parallels in the business and news sections, and I’m better off getting my information elsewhere.
Nearly a month ago, I went off on a little rant about the M’s and their refusal to give up on the season. Since that time, they’ve traded Garcia, dumped Aurilia, given Travis Blackley a shot, and now appear to be giving the same chance to Bucky Jacobsen and George Sherrill.
We here at the USSM get accused of being too negative, so I just wanted to point out that I’m glad the M’s are finally doing something with an eye towards improving for next season.
How about this instead, Derek?
The PI is reporting that — gasp — John Olerud will be moved off the roster. “Barring a last-minute deal, Olerud will be released or designated for assignment with the Mariners owing him the remainder of the $7.7 million on his contract.”
I’m not saying this is the wrong move, but man, I’m shocked they’d do such a thing to a guy like Olerud.
Rumors are swirling around the M’s right now. Hopefully I can get some confirmation pretty soon, and we’ll update you on the latest roster moves. Some interesting goings on at Safeco.
Also, quick reminder, I’ll be on with Pat Dillon on the Aquasox pregame show tonight. 90.7 KSER or listen live via the internet. And really, the link will work this time.
edit: And there’s the confirmation. George Sherrill and Bucky Jacobsen have gotten the call to the big show and will be joining the team tomorrow. A move will be made to clear a 40-man roster spot, and a trade is very likely.
Woo hoo! Home-field advantage in the World Series!
David Andriesen puts out a good column in the P-I today. He quotes support-neutral Won/Loss records, uses the increase in extra base hits to show reduced outfield defense, and talks about the return on investment that other teams are getting from Vlad Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, and Migeul Tejada, compared to the Mariners offseason signings.
For as frustrating as this season as been, we can take solace in the fact that the blogosphere has become a moderately respected resource for the classical journalists. We’re making inroads, and honestly I’m surprised at how well the “seamhead” opinions are being received in the media. That’s a pretty nice silver lining in this dark cloud.
Things I’d Like to See the M’s Do in the Second Half:
A couple of random thoughts before I shut it down for the night:
Credit where it’s due: Randy Winn’s continued hot streak has put him into positive territory for offensive contributions by a center fielder. His defense is still bad, but it’s not like he’s bad on both sides of an inning right now. I’ll take high points where I can get them.
Raul Ibanez is back and boy, did this team miss him. He hit the DL on June 3rd with 11 home runs. When Ibanez went down, Boone had 8 home runs.. he now has 11. Ibanez was on the DL for over a month and was still the team’s best power source.
Timelines, a testament to Mariner planning and deliberation. Excluding the team’s comments on wanting to contend (which is a whole other topic) and injury-related roster moves:
4/26: Kevin Jarvis put out with the day’s trash
5/6 Ben Davis demoted
5/14: Garcia rumored to Boston
6/2: Gil Meche demoted
6/mid: Aurilia first rumored in a trades in normal team leak outlets
6/23: Bavasi says two deals cooking, both a lot of work
6/27: Garcia traded
7/11: Aurilia designated for assignment
This is more important than it initially seems.
Kevin Jarvis was a terrible pitcher. Everyone knew it. Even the M’s knew it, and were hoping he’d show something that they could pawn off on someone. He was in only eight games, but his awful performances to take the Mariners out of games that might have been close prompted the Mariners to cut their losses. As long as he was going to be awful, they weren’t going to get anything out of them, so there was no point to continuing. Especially while he was super unpopular, and tossing him demonstrated the team was responsive to needs (“See? We’ll spend millions of dollars on a move like this…”)
Ben Davis was an awful catcher for fourteen games. It didn’t help that he wasn’t popular with the pitchers (a topic for a whole other post). Davis as recently as last year was leading people like me to push for a more equal job-sharing arrangement, which he then demonstrated was a bad, bad idea. Davis got only 33 at-bats to not-hit his way to Tacoma before he was dispatched. This is partly because the team had Pat Borders, Pat Gillick’s personal catcher, hanging around for just such an emergency, so to them the worst case was they’d get no more offense, better defense, and veteran leadership (I make no argument here if that’s true or not).
No huge moves here. A 12th pitcher, a backup catcher. It took nearly a month before the team made their next big move, demoting Gil Meche.
Gil Meche had run down badly the season before: after getting off to a hot start, he struggled through most of the season, his stuff increasingly ineffective, and he picked up this year right where he’d left off… sort of. He got a ton of strikeouts, it seems… except that he faced a ton of batters, and those batters got a ton of hits off him (.383 BA on balls in play) as his defense completely failed to do their job behind him. Ten starts into the season, the team sends him down to Tacoma and moves Clint Nageotte into his rotation slot.
This is notable for a couple of reasons: the team waited over a half-season before pulling Meche out of the rotation. They didn’t try and get him rest, instead moving him to Tacoma where he fit into the rotation there. His replacement was a guy Melvin had taken a shine to in spring training who was, appropriately, pretty much a clone of Meche. Nageotte went from a setup role Melvin was convinced Nageotte would be perfect for (and wasn’t, and wasn’t for long) into the rotation, where he did his best Meche impression to get slapped with the “not ready for the majors” label and sent down.
A month after Garcia starts to come up in specific rumors, he’s traded. His rotation spot’s taken by one of the Tacoma starters hanging around.
A month after Aurilia starts to come up in specific rumors, he’s traded. He’s replaced by… Willie Bloomquist, organizational favorite (?)
This is the glacial pace the Mariners move it: it’s about one month from *the leak* of discussions, an almost formal step in the negotiation process: exchange business cards, compliment each other on business cards, discuss general topics, move to specific topics, specific players. Break for tea, during which both teams call local media to leak player names to soften blow for public. Return to negotiation.
We can assume that discussions started even before that. It’s almost crazy to contemplate how much time this takes.
So the team has about two weeks before the trade deadline and much work to do. But as Steve at the Wheelhouse will tell you, this is an organization that would rather do nothing than risk a bad move. While I would likely have already burned this team to the foundation, and even at this point would be on the phone all day and most of the night trying to move Winn/Franklin/everyone else, the Mariners aren’t considering it this way.
Winn sucks in center field, but they don’t see that they have an option yet. They’ll start looking to move him when Jeremy Reed seizes center field (if he does) and forces them to make a move, like Winn -> LF, Ibanez -> 1B.
Franklin’s not doing well, certainly not as well as many expected (“Franklin likely to get many more wins in 2004” — amalgam headline from pre-season)… but he’s not forcing a decision the way, say, Meche seemed to: Franklin’s getting past the sixth inning, where Meche was struggling to get out of four regularly. So as long as the team is sorting through their options for the other two slots in the rotation, they’re not going to be too concerned.
And here’s another big difference between me and the Mariners, and it’s going to go against the grain of much of what I spout off about the team as profit-mongering bourgeois running dogs.
If I was the GM of the Mariners, I would lie awake at night thinking of ways to get Spiezio off the roster. I would watch the transaction wire all day, hoping some team suffered an injury I could patch with Spiezio. I would look at the roster every day when I came into work and it would just burn me up.
The Mariners aren’t that motivated. They’re making a ton of money, we’re not abandoning the franchise in droves. They’ve already stashed that money they were going to spend on Sasaki, and no one seemed to notice that. Sure, they could purge some more salary, but if they’re not sure it’s going to improve the team, they’re going to stay the course unless there’s an overriding reason to take action. They might be tinkering with the plan, still drawn up from last year, and they might be working on some trades we haven’t heard about that have been percolating for a month.
They’re not going to raze the team, though.
Matt Thornton back to AAA; doesn’t appear they called anyone up yet, but seeing as it’s the All-Star break (i.e., they don’t need anyone) and Miguel Olivo will be eligible to come off the DL in a few days, I think we have our answer right there.