It’s time to play Outsmart The Manager! Opposing American League managers play this every time Seattle comes to town, and now you can play in the comfort of your own home. Best of all, its free. Just follow the situation below, correctly identify how to outwit the opposing manager, and win yourself a ballgame. So easy, even a child could do it, and often does. Now, let’s play Outsmart The Manager.
Your team has a 1-0 lead in the 8th inning of a home game. Your closer has been dynamite this year, but because we’ve got the difficulty level set to “by the book” you want to save him until the 9th inning. The rest of your bullpen is spotty, but luckily, the #9, #1, and #2 hitters are due up, none of whom are threats to hit a home run. To make it even harder on you, we’re forcing you to start the inning with a retread that the other team couldn’t find room for, and making him left-handed, giving the platoon advantage to the opposing manager in case either of the first two batters get on base.
The inning starts ominously, as you’re ancient scrub gives up a single to the worst hitter in baseball, then watches an infield single by the leadoff hitter push the tying run into scoring position with nobody out. Now, you have to make your first decision:
Your left-handed pitcher gets beaten to a pulp by right-handed hitters. They hit .320/.377/.553 against him last year. The next batter due up is a switch hitter who is significantly stronger against left-handed pitching, and he’s followed by a right-hander who has been a lefty masher his entire career, and even despite his recent decline in performance still mashes them at all-star rates. Behind those two, however, awaits a near automatic out against southpaws and a player who couldn’t hit them at all last year.
The latest run expectancy charts show that, on average, teams with runners at 1st and 2nd base and nobody out score 1.51 runs per inning, and the expectancy with your lefty reliever facing two lefty mashers is likely even higher. If you can just somehow manage to get through the next two hitters without allowing the run to score, your chances of success are much higher. You don’t have any right-handed setup men you trust, however. What do you do?
The correct answer, obviously, is abso-freaking-lutely nothing. Because, by doing nothing, your opposing manager is going to bunt with his first lefty masher, despite the gigantic favorable matchup. The sacrifice moves runners into second and third with one out, actually lowering the other team’s expected ability to score to 1.42. In reality, the sacrifice harmed your opponent even more than an “average” opportunity, because he has gotten himself halfway to the two wimps who can’t hit their way out of a left-handed paperbag without the run coming in to tie the game.
So, now, you’re faced with a lefty masher at the plate, 1 out, and runners on second and third. The next two batters are easy outs against southpaws. A walk not only sets up the double play, the force at home, and allows you to bypass lefty-masher #2 completely, taking the bat away from both of the team’s two best options in this situation. What do you do?
If you didn’t answer “Put The Man On”, give yourself an electric shock of 100,000 volts. And, while you are at it, go take up curling, because this is clearly not your game. For the rest of you sane people who walked the lefty masher, congratulations, you’ve now completed your task. The average run expectancy of the initial situation was 1.52, and even after loading the bases and getting through the heart of the order with the lead, you’ve only raised it to 1.54, and now get to bring in your lefty specialist to go after the two hacks. As a bonus, you get to make a force at the plate on any ball not hit to the outfield, and can turn an inning ending double play on a ball up the middle.
Oh, but you worry that your opposing manager might pinch-hit for one of his two weak hitters, bringing in a slugger with no value other than to beat up southpaw relievers? Relax, this is easy mode, where the opposing organization doesn’t have enough foresight to anticipate this kind of situation, and has loaded their bench up with guys who can’t hit southpaws any better than you can. Despite the fact that they’re going to continually need a right-handed hitter who can come off the bench in crucial situations, they’ve decided to get by without one. So, rest assured, your LOOGY will get to face his two easy outs.
So, sit on your hands and enjoy. Groundball to third, out at the plate, two down. Strikeout, inning over. By making just two simple decisions, including the first one to do absolutely nothing and let the opposing manager reduce his own chance of scoring by employing a useless bunt, you’ve Outsmarted The Manager. Next time, give your kids a chance, as it appears the software is confused and bewildered and consistently getting beaten. Perhaps he needs an easier opponent?
Oh, but you don’t want your kids learning the disappointment of losing just yet? Have no fear, as we’ve built in a code to make sure that the manager does not learn from his past mistakes. If he bunted last week and it failed to bring any success, don’t worry, he’ll bunt again. And again. You can set your clock to it, because we’ve set the artificial intelligence so low that we feel bad referring to it as intelligence. So, let your children play this game with confidence knowing that, following the easy instructions of “do nothing!”, they too will win, as the opposing manager beats himself, over and over and over.
Postage and handling extra. Operators are standing by. Get yours now before everyone else has already Outsmarted The Manager.
I’m not sure you could have a more fitting end to this series than a shutout. Johan Santana is a good pitcher, but this offense is absolutely terrible. Some numbers for the series:
AB: 115
H: 36
BB: 5 (one intentional)
XBH: 2
BA: .313
OBP: .336
SLG: .357
They averaged 3 runs on 12 hits per game. The team is likely to chalk this up to poor clutch hitting or some such nonsense, not understanding how a team can hit .313 and struggle to score. This series is example A in the case study of batting average being overrated, as the M’s showed a complete inability to get on base or drive the ball. Not surprising to anyone smart enough to spell MENSA, much less get admitted, they also struggled to score runs.
The Mariners executed their offseason plan, acquiring players they value through their antiquated analytical means. We’re seeing the results of that, as this team is perhaps the worst we’ve been forced to watch since 1992. Never thought we’d yearn for the days of Pete O’Brien, did you?
Well, we have trade candidate numero uno. From today’s Everett Herald:
Closer Eddie Guardado was asked by a Minneapolis columnist Tuesday whether, if he had it to do over, he’d have signed with the Seattle Mariners as a free agent. “I’m not going to lie,” Guardado said. “No.”
Guardado just may have more value than anyone on the team right now, Freddy Garcia included. His contract is reasonable for any contender, he’s not a rent-a-player, and I’d imagine he’d gladly waive his right to not be traded until June 1st (free agents cannot be traded without consent until 90 days into the first season of their new contract). He’s professed his love for Minnesota and now his regret for signing here, and the Twins could certainly use him coming out of the bullpen. A little deferral of some money to keep Carl Pohlad rich and toss us Michael Cuddyer and, congratulations Minnesota, Everyday Eddie is coming home.
Remembering that I don’t particularly care what managers say to the media, as they are often just spouting things without thinking to try to get the reporters to go away, this is still the stupidest thing Melvin has ever said.
“A lot of times a home run is actually a rally killer in that situation,” Mariners manager Bob Melvin said.
Here’s a few numbers for you regarding the offense the past two games.
87 plate appearances. 28 hits. .333 batting average.
1 walk. 1 sacrifice. .333 on base percentage.
26 singles. 1 triple. 1 home run. .392 slugging percentage.
RBI’s per single: 0.15. RBI’s per extra base hit: 2.50.
The Mariners of the last two days are exactly the type of hitter this team values. High average singles hitters who don’t walk or hit for power. The line-up has basically been nine Ichiros, and its worked out to average 4.5 runs/game. Against Carlos Silva and Brad Radke.
If you want to score runs, you need patient hitters who can drive the ball. You don’t necessarily need nine of them, but they should be the core of your line-up, and you should understand that they are the force that drives your offense. Building a line-up of slap hitting hacks, well, it leads to crap like we see right now.
The next time someone tells you that these are good hitters just in a funk, punch them in the nose. They’re playing exactly the style of ball they were built to play, and the style that the organization believes is winning baseball. And if they can watch these past two games and not see that they are just flat out wrong, they all need to find another line of work.
Aaaaand… another loss.
Don’t let those ten hits fool you — this offense is anemic. In nine innings, M’s hitters managed just one extra-base hit and one walk. As Dave said earlier, that just isn’t going to get the job done. Meanwhile, they’ve fallen 10.5 games back of Anaheim and are five full games out of third.
Time for a major overhaul? You bet, particularly with the number of free agents the M’s have this winter: Edgar, Wilson, Olerud, Garcia, Aurilia, Hansen. And frankly, I don’t want any of them back next season (with the exception of Edgar, who can play here as long as he likes). Sadly, Garcia’s the only one likely to fetch much in trade. That’s OK, though, because it’s about time to look ahead to next season.
One interesting side effect of Boone’s back problems is that he has an option for 2005 which vests if he reaches 450 plate appearances. He’s still well on pace to do so, but if the back winds up being a bigger issue, he might not make the cut. Moving along, and at the risk of upsetting people — Boone’s probably the team’s most tradable regular, and I wouldn’t be averse to dealing him. By the time the M’s have a chance of competing again (and that’s not next season, barring free agency miracles), he’ll no longer be a top-shelf player. I’m not saying I’d be out shopping him — no, wait, why the heck not? — but he shouldn’t be off the table.
MLB.com:
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Bavasi said he and his staff are in the process of identifying which MLB teams might have the best matches for trades. The Mariners, who need more offense, have the kind of starting pitching that other teams covet.
Most teams are still in process of determining whether they will be a buyer or seller leading up the July 31 trade deadline. Bavasi wants to be in the group that adds players for the second half of the season, but it’s up to the present players to make it happen.
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Nice indirect quote. It’s also up to the manager and general manager to make that happen, and they’re doing a pretty good job at making sure it doesn’t happen.
I love that the Mariners have the kind of starting pitching other teams covet. If Garcia’s turned around and pitching right, he’s still expensive. Pineiro and Meche are question marks. Franklin would be an effective back-end rotation guy who goes deep into games for relatively cheap and do well for a team with a good defense, but what contending team meets those criteria, and what can they offer the M’s?
More importantly, I like that the team is still unable to figure out what’s wrong with on the field, or why they’re losing games. Smart people saw the flaws before the season even started, we know the Mariners know what the criticism of their team have been, and we know that those criticisms were spot on.
I cannot understand how any business can run like this.
“Hey, your fruit stand is on fire.”
“No it’s not.”
“It is, seriously, and I mention this because I like your fruit.”
“You must be some kind of complainer. I will ignore you now. Now where did all the customers go? I note that, totally independent of that first dude, that it’s unusually hot here. I will call to have an expensive air conditioner installed.”
This latest news is ill tidings for the Mariner fan: if you thought Bavasi did a bad job patching (and opening new) holes in the ship’s hull this off-season, take a second to imagine what’s going to happen when he decides to rebuild the ship entirely in his image.
Blub blub.
More fun with the brilliance of our grand poobah in today’s Times. Keep in mind, this is the man that Howard Lincoln praised as “exactly the right man for this team” and gushed that he’s been “better than we even imagined.” Presumably, he said it with a straight face while sober, but one can’t be sure.
“But it’s almost as if there are two tracks,” he said before the Mariners lost the series opener here last night. “You are investigating ways to get better, and at the same time you have to think you’ll be getting better with the guys you have now.”
This is about as public a proclamation as you’re going to get that the management realizes that there is something wrong. They’re going to put a positive spin on things, but they have passed the slow start thinking, and now realize that this team has fundamental problems that need to be addressed. The question will be whether they realize just how severe those problems are, and that the best way to address them is by tearing this team apart and starting over.
The team has a .242 EqA, 3rd worst in the majors (ahead of Tampa and Montrael, whose combined payrolls are roughly 1/2 that of the Mariners). Their three best hitters to date (Spiezio, Wilson, and Ibanez) are performing at a level equivalent to the career marks of luminaries such as Tony Clark. Their worst hitters are performing like AL pitchers in interleague play. The pitching has been bad, but made even worse by an abysmal defense. The core players are showing their age, and the young guys counted on for improvement are hurt or mysteriously struggling.
If you assume the M’s need to win 95 games to win the AL West, they’d have to go 83-47 the rest of the way, which is .638 baseball. No team in baseball finished the year with a .638 winning percentage last year. That’s a clip that would win you 104 games over the course of the year. Regardless of how much better you could expect some players to perform, does anyone see any kind of acquisition enabling this team to play like a 104 win team for the next four and a half months?
Bavasi can cite June 1st as the date to throw in thet towel, but on May 12th, it’s rather obvious that they might as well start stretching their arms in preparation for the heave. For this team to play .638 ball the rest of the way would be a miracle of heavenly proportions, and it just simply isn’t going to happen.
It sucks having to give up on a season in May. But at this point, it’s the right choice. It’s time to look to 2005 and preparing to make that club as good as it can possibly be. It’s time to explore a selloff and see if you can find some takers for the veterans that the organization thought would bring them success. It’s time to tear this team apart and start over, because 2004 is down the drain.
Steve Kelley wrote a melodramatic column after the Yankees came back to win on Sunday, proclaiming the team dead in the water and holding that one game up as everything wrong with the franchise. I didn’t watch that meltdown, so the column felt like an emotional overreaction to a tough loss.
Consider this my version of that column.
First, the offense. In one of their biggest outbursts of the season, they were still bad.
The Mariners got 18 hits. 17 of them were singles. Seventeen singles. Just unreal.
They drew one walk in 52 plate appearances. That’s an approach that just won’t work.
Rich Aurilia was the only starter to not leave at least two men on base.
This sums up the offense. The M’s made a point of acquiring a bunch of impatient hacks who can’t drive the ball, and it’s no surprise that they can’t score runs. You just can’t single your way to blowouts. Screw the broadcasters and their love for little ball and moving runners along; good offenses draw walks and hit home runs. The Mariners do neither, and until they learn the value of patience and power, they are going to be a poor offensive club.
Now, the pitching. Pineiro rebounded, which shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Unless he’s hurt, he’s coming back to decency. But man, the bullpen sucks, and its exacerbated by a manager whose giant, gaping weakness is bullpen management.
Shigetoshi Hasegawa faces four batters, retires none, all score. Is this the most predictable meltdown in major league history, or does Ryan Franklin edge him out for that award? Did anyone think this wasn’t going to happen?
Mike Myers, the lefty specialist who can’t throw strikes, throws one pitch two feet inside, allows a run to score, and is yanked. Giant waste of a roster spot. Replacement level pitcher making twice the league minimum to be worse than half of the relievers in Tacoma. George Sherrill, anyone?
But the real story of tonight’s pitching debacle is the absolute insanity of the bullpen management. Apparently, Eddie Guardado is completely incapable of pitching in any situation where the team isn’t winning in the 9th inning. Letting Hasegawa start the 8th is fine. Replacing him with Mike Myers, up by 3, with the bases loaded and nobody out, well, that’s just ridiculously stupid. Yanking Myers after one pitch to bring in J.J. Putz, now protecting a two run lead, that’s managerial stupidity of the greatest kind. I like Putz, and we stumped for him to have a job in spring training. But this situation demands you try to win with your best reliever, and Guardado didn’t even begin to warm up. After Putz allows a pair of inherited runners to score and tie the game, we’re subjected to 2 innings of Ron Villone. Why? Seriously, there is absolutely no rational reason for the M’s to play 11 innings of baseball, use 4 relievers, and have Guardado not get on the mound.
Earlier today, I was ready to write a piece on why its too early to throw in the towel, why the slow start was causing overreactions, and offering some reasons to expect a turnaround. But you know what, this team stinks. And they deserved to lose this game. This is the kind of game that makes you want to root against Melvin and Bavasi, with their flaws being so obviously pointed out that one can’t help but wonder how they got their jobs in the first place. Melvin’s an awful strategical manager playing with a roster of bad baseball players with little chance of improvement. The 2004 season is just about a waste, and it’s not even mid-May. Forget trading for Beltran; I’m not sure trading for the entire AL Central would help at this point.
This is a last place team that might win 80 games if things break right. Bavasi deserves to be the shortest tenured GM in recent baseball history. An awful offseason leading to one of the most disappointing seasons in Mariner history, and it was as predicatble as it is hard to watch. Forget the optimism; it’s time to clean house.
Much longer post coming after this game, but I’m getting this in now so it doesn’t look like second guessing. Bases loaded, no out, tying run at the plate in left-hander Jacque Jones in the 8th inning, and you go to… Mike Myers. The stupidity of the closer role defined, right here. Guardado should absolutely be on the mound right now. This is the game.
From today’s Gammons:
Hats off to GM Bill Bavasi for recognizing the Mariners’ problem is that they need to get younger, more athletic and energetic. Now they have to figure out what’s going on with Joel Pineiro. “It’s not stuff or velocity,” said manager Bob Melvin. “He’s throwing with the same velocity he had last season.”
Ummmmmmm, then how about hats back on for spending the offseason making the team older, less athletic and energetic? Oooor for not doing anything with this recognition by Bavasi? And didn’t Bavasi just say a little while ago that the team was fine, it just took veterans longer to get started (which, side note, also ridiculous)?
This is like applauding Ken Lay for saying “whoops, maybe I was a little aggressive there” after the fall of Enron.
We should take our hats off for people who are smart enough to spend some time thinking about these things in advance, and avoid them.
Actually, you know what this is like? It’s like when I worked at AT&T Wireless, and they had this Circle of Excellence thing they sent the best teams on, and you could predict the teams like so:
Year X: Team that screwed up the implementation of a huge new system and worked long hours to get it into production (saaaaaaaaaaay, Siebel)
Year X+1: Team that spent the year cleaning up the horrible, business-destroying bugs the last team left in in their rush to get into production (Siebel upgrade)
Year X+2: Team working on business-wide issues involving inefficent, badly designed-and-deployed systems (Performance And Reliability team)
Year X+3: Team that screwed up the implementation of a huge new system to replace the last one that never worked right, and worked long hours to get it into production (saaaaaaaaay, Siebel 7.5)
Meanwhile, if you did a great job, thought things through, managed your timelines and budget, no matter how much money you contributed to the bottom line, there was no chance you’d go to Hawaii, because you weren’t high profile enough.
At the end of this season, will we look at a 81-81 Mariners team and say “Good job salvaging a disaster out of the catastrophe you created, Bavasi”?
I won’t.