I try and stay away from this, but I’m going to comment on some things that came up on tonight’s broadcast.
– If you’re struggling to score runs, don’t sacrifice more often. That’s only going to make it harder to score runs, and it’s not as if one run by playing small ball would somehow make the offense significantly better.
– If you’re facing a pitcher who can’t get an out, for crying out loud, the last thing you want to do is give them an out. If they can’t find the plate and are grooving pitches down the middle when they’re behind in the count, why in the world would you sacrifice anyone over?
1: You don’t get anything from a successful sacrifice anyway and
2: Your return on a normal at bat against a struggling pitcher are far, far higher than the returns on a sacrifice
I get frustrated sometimes when I watch these games and the announcers constantly harp on the importance of pitching inside, inside inside inside, gotta go inside, gotta have the guts… and the inside pitches get drilled just like the outside pitches by hitters who can turn on them. Go inside to Alex… home run. But does anyone ever mention this? Of course not — they’re on to talking about the importance of manufacturing runs.
Speaking of which: for all the constant carping about how important it is to move the runners along, put pressure on the defense, whatever, how you can’t rely on the long ball yadda yadda yadda, is it so hard to give credit to the long ball? The great Mariner offenses hit for huge power and scored runs by the bushel. The Yankees today knocked the stitches off the ball to come back and win — is it really that hard to admit that while over-reliance on power brings a set of problems, that hitting for power is by far the easiest way for a team to score runs?
Arrrrrrrgh. I feel drained, and while I’m trying to come up with something interesting and orignal to say, I really just want to shake my head and see if there’s any other really good games on…
Philly v Arizona? Steve Sparks? Well, I do love a knuckleballer.
Drop us a line if you’ve got something you want us to talk about. I promise to hit at least one tonight.
I’ve gotten a couple of emails about this, so…
Yes, for some reason I neglected to put Wisconsin OF Josh Ellison on the Big Board. He’s off to a hot start, too, hitting a robust .400/.516/.600 in his first 25 at-bats. Also, note that he’s walked six times and fanned just three times in seven games. Not too shabby. Ellison showed a decent walk rate but nothing in the way of power last season (only 20% of his hits went for extra bases) at Everett, and hit just .269 in 182 at-bats, though he did steal 12 bases in 16 attempts. He turns 21 this July, so he’s not exactly young for the Midwest League, either.
In any event, I’ll add him at the next update.
We’ve talked about Mussina here before, but I wanted to briefly say this: as much as Moyer is the master of preparation and control, Mussina is wildly underappreciated for doing the same things. If he can find a player’s weakness, there are few pitchers as adept as exploiting them as Mussina. That means that he’s not always pitching to his strengths in the way (say) Randy Johnson did (you’re a fastball hitter? not anymore you’re not) but man, watching him set up and sit down Mariners tonight makes me shake my head. I don’t like seeing it happen to my team, but I have to respect it.
Gay-rod? Jeter’s boyfriend?
Are these really the best taunts we can come up with for Alex? I think this whole thing is ridiculous, but if you’re going to go after him, do it with some style.
I had to sit near this guy tonight… he talked all night long, and he knew about 10% of what he thought he knew. I suspect that even if he knew everything, he’d demonstrate the difference between knowledge and wisdom. I know that sounds arrogant, but that’s the truth.
Fun examples:
Jason (1/8/1971) and Jeremy Giambi (9/30/1974) are twins. He went on for a while about this.
Gil Meche pitching well for the Mariners is all the sweeter because he used to play for the A’s.
“Look at how shallow Lofton is playing!” (pointing to Lofton, who was playing at a perfectly normal center field depth)
Quinton McCracken came over from the Devil Rays (at least this one you can say “well, QMcC was in CF, and our regular CF…”)
Anyway. We’ve gotten some reader mail lately like this:
Fun (and profitable!) as it is to heap obloquys on Bavasi for Jarvis, Ibanez, etc., aren’t you guys missing the boat on the aftermath of Project: Dump Guillen? Did you see his line from last night when he almost singlehandedly beat the Rangers? Maybe it’s just early season, and Cheeto-man will crumble with some injury later . . . . but Aurilia? He’s on his way to being the Cirillo of 2004, but without the fielding. Frankly, it’s hard for me to see a bigger disaster from the off-season at this point. –David Steuer
There’s a couple reasons we haven’t stuck it to Bavasi over this one. I think as a group we thought this would be a small positive… but we also said some things like
Both players, statistically and scouting-wise, are average defenders at their position. Carlos, injury-hampered, has been adding power, then OBP, then power, and at 28 if he’s healthy (yes, I know) there’s a fair chance he’ll put together a full season where he hits really well. Like .285/.370/.420 or better. And that’s probably going to beat what Aurilia puts up here. (me, 12/31)
And David said
Which of the following is not alike: .253, .264, .267, .312, .255, .259. If you do a google search for the word “outlier”, Rich Aurilia’s 2001 season comes up, right next to Brady Anderson’s 1996 campaign (okay, it doesn’t, but it should). Yet somehow, every article I read about this trade mentions that just two short years ago, Rich Aurilia was hitting .324 with 37 home runs. And, by God, Carlos Guillen only has 29 career home runs. This must be a big upgrade. Spare me.
However, as usual, the truth lies somewhere in between the local media spin (every move is great!) and the overall blog reactions (every move is a steaming pile of horsecrap). Aurilia is a decent player, and at $3.5 million for one year, is a decent little pickup. Now, keeping Carlos Guillen and spending that extra million intelligently would be more ideal, but lets be honest, that million bucks was going to be as useful as an oasis of salt in the Sahara. There’s a pretty good chance that Aurilia is going to be worth his contract, and in this offseason, that makes this a prime candidate for best move of Bavasi’s tenure.
But then again, we also said stuff like
“Carlos Guillen simply is not a reliable option for a contending team. You can count on him missing at least a month of the season, being hobbled for another month, and just an average player when he is healthy. The Mariners should view shortstop as a position of weakness and look to upgrade.”
Which is to say that I what totally right! WOOOOOOO!!!*
Carlos Guillen in Detroit: .314/.408/476
Man, that’s sweet. Now, I don’t think he’s going to be this good over the course of the season. But… we did point out (there and elsewhere) that there were some serious concerns with Aurilia after his elbow surgery a couple years ago (particularly that his power disappeared).
This was the risk the team took, and it turned out badly.
*I’m joking! Please don’t send me nasty email about what a know-it-all I am
All hail the new Big Board.
And oh, the moves! Ben Davis and Pat Borders make the Seattle-Tacoma swap. Aaron Looper is on Tacoma’s DL, so San Antonio closer Jared Hoerman (say “Her-man”) is up to take his spot. Also new to Tacoma is outfielder Michael Nesbit, a 2002 draftee who has had his career slowed by Tommy John surgery. With IE 66ers 2B Ismael Castro out for the year, the team has added infielder Jesus Guzman to the roster. And finally, 2B Evel Bastida-Martinez, who appeared in a dozen games for San Antonio while Rob Gandolfo was hurt, is back in Wisconsin.
I feel compelled to point out how good Inland Empire’s starting rotation has been this season. The top four of Bobby Livingston, Felix Hernandez, T.A. Fulmer and Rich Dorman have combined to do the following:
W-L ERA G GS IP H AB AVG HR BB SO
Livingston 4-0 1.31 6 6 41.1 25 141 .177 2 6 30
Hernandez 3-1 2.56 6 5 31.2 25 111 .225 2 9 41
Fulmer 2-1 2.12 5 5 29.2 19 109 .174 1 8 28
Dorman 2-1 2.81 5 5 25.2 24 96 .250 0 10 22
-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS 11-3 2.10 22 21 128.1 93 457 .203 5 33 121
That’s one heck of a pitching prospect.
Night at Safeco
Thursday, May 6th
I had a great seat tonight up close and personal. I was actually served a beer at the Triangle Pub, for the first time in ever, and it was okay. I’d be up for meeting a friend there, but it is really, really cramped. My semi-secret normal watering hole was (as it is every time I go) a little more open, a little less seedy… the guy next to me was drinking Coronas out of the bottle for $4 a pop when there were.. uh, ten, maybe fifteen excellent beers on tap for $2.50/pint. I never understand why people drink out of the can or bottle at bars when the price is comperable or in the favor of draft beers.
Insightful comment from my pre-game preparation of beer and televised baseball: I don’t mind loose or baggy uniforms, really, but the Red Sox all looked like they’d just rolled out of bed.
Somewhat insightful comment from my walk down Occidental: when you see some dude with a sign asking for money, whether it’s “homeless sober will work” or “fishing for beer” there’s a chance, depending on who you are, that you’d give that person money, either out of sympathy or charity (that chance might be almost zero, sure). Let’s say you give them money and then you see them the next game, and the next game. At some point you’re likely to stop giving them money: it’s not improving their situation any, and there are charities you can give to that will have some kind of lasting impact.
The Mariners will be on Occidental soon enough, with a gimmick sign, faced with an unsympathetic public that doesn’t want to see a weak, family-friendly team as much as they used to, a sweetheart lease they’re abusing at the cost of local governments that could really use that money (to waste, but that’s another point, and that’s not how it’ll be sold — it’ll be “Mariners revenue concealment steals money from schools”). If they’d ever have gone for it after Safeco Field opened, really blown the doors off, ran a baseball organization as good as their business organization, people might go soft on them. But they didn’t, and we won’t. It’s not going to happen for a couple years, but it could be ugly.
Anyway.
It was Wheel of Fortune Night at Safeco Field.
Vanna White and her son Ico (wait, no, that was a cool Playstation game.. Niko?) threw out first pitches. It’s strange to see celebrities sometimes, because at a certain level of fame and exposure, especially for someone like Vanna, you know where the cameras are at all times, and can naturally mug, so the set shots are perfect and the others are all really good.
Between innings they had Wheel of Fortune-style contests. Like “Fictional Character” would be
M-R—R M–S- for Mariner Moose. I wanted to see Mariner front office personell put up there.
What Mariner Fans Want
W-R– S-R–S
Lincoln: “Uhhhh… family entertainment? Ownership to make a ton of money? I give up.”
What’s this team’s biggest problem
D-F-NS-
Bavasi: “It’s too early to tell, I’m not sure.. uhhh… I’m going to give this some time and we’ll see what happens.” [Buzzer sounds]
And so on. Also, I would be tempted to blow the prize package: you’ve got a live mike to 25,000 of your fellow Mariners fans. There’s a lot you can say in seven sylabbles before they cut you off.
Garcia’s really looked like the effective Garcia we knew: not afraid to get the K on the change, changing pitches and speeds, mixing locations. I agree with Dave about Dan’s craptastic pitch-calling, though. Ugh. It’s like when Shane Monahan was hitting: why call anything but curves in the dirt and let him strike himself out?
I felt like I was watching a version of Garcia from a couple years ago, except he didn’t seem to get tweaked out over an error or a questionable ball-strike call. My only complaint was that he threw a lot of pitches and that took him out early. It cracks me up that you don’t need a radar gun or anything to tell you how Freddy’s feeling… I think I wrote this ina BP annual once, but when he starts taking more time between pitches, strolling around the mound, he’s running out of gas. He started to really do it in the 7th, and he still got three Ks that inning, but he was huffing and stalling a bit. To Melvin’s credit, he pulled him for the 8th, so it all worked out.
Also, I would be that we could put together a Melvinotron 2000 to predict Melvin strategies.
1st and 2nd? Sac ’em to 2nd and 3rd.
Here’s the problem with Melvin’s strategies, if I may digress. Let’s say you’re playing poker. If you bluff continually, your opponents will always call you and you’ll lose. Let’s say you never bluff. Your opponents will always fold, knowing that you have the best hand, and you’ll never be able to make money.
The best strategy turns out to play somewhat unpredictably. How much varies on circumstance, but you want to bluff enough that your opponent looks at the situation and says “there’s a chance he’s bluffing, but there’s also a good chance he has the cards, and I can’t afford that second outcome” and fold when they have you beat, and sometimes says “I think he’s bluffing, I’m going to remain in this hand” when you have them beat. More the latter than the former, but you get my point.
Melvin plays by the book, even though the book is wrong, and consistently does so. It’s like watching the flop come down, betting, and seeing your opponent flip through a poker book looking for the proper response: if you know the book he’s reading, you can reverse-engineer their hand and see what’s coming.
I’d be happy about Melvin’s strategies if I was an opposing manager. Want to give me an out? I’ll take it, now you only have 26 left.
That Jones steal in the 8th was hilarious. I was on the third-base side and could see Mateo standing there. Jones started off, dig dig dig, and Mateo– no pickoff, he went into his motion. Jones is halfway there. Mateo then screws up his delivery and puts the pitch into the dirt, and it got away from Agreatstopthereby Wilsontokeeptheballfromgettingpasthim but Jones wasn’t going to be able to get around and all the way to third, so it was only one stolen base.
I’ve never seen a runner go that early without being faked out. I’ve never seen a runner go anywhere near that early without drawing a throw.
Is Mateo’s peripheral vision shot or something? Did he not hear everyone yelling “GOING!!”? I was baffled.
Guardado… I’d rather have had Keith Foulke, honestly, but as long as the team’s going to have a short pitcher that Melvin will put in for more than one batter in close games (if only close-and-in-the-lead), well… we could have done a lot worse than Guardado, and he’s probably going to turn out okay over the course of his deal.
Nice win. Go M’s.
Nice to see Freddy get a win tonight; he’d been pitching too well not to have one.
I do find it odd that many people, myself included, were in the “As goes Freddy Garcia in 2004, so go the M’s” camp heading into this season… boy were we wrong.
Oh, and the last Friends sucked.
Its 10:30, the M’s are on, and I’m wide awake. That means running blog. No promises how long this lasts.
10:20 pm: Rich Aurilia has been taking throwing lessons from Randy Winn, apparently.
10:26: The Twins broadcast is so much fun. Did you know Brad Radke has “great stuff”? And Christian Guzman can walk on water, Ron Gardenhire found a cure for cancer, and Carl Pohlad is the most generous owner in the history of pro sports.
10:30: Pat Borders is in the house and Freddy Garcia is on the hill. I’d predict a no-hitter, but Luis Rivas just doubled.
10:37: Shannon Stewart swings at a pitch approximately six inches below ground, so Freddy promptly hangs a curve. Good pitch selection Dan. Way to call a great game.
10:40: I like Corey Koskie as a solid all around player, but if you’re looking for the next Jeff Cirillo, look no further. Severe drop off ahead.
10:46: Like the camera adding ten pounds, Dan Wilson’s bat speed adds 10 MPH to a pitchers velocity. I think the girl from the softball game across the street could get one by him.
10:50: Two thoughts on that swing; Randy Winn got all of hit and hit it 250 feet, and had he been playing the outfield, it would have been a double.
10:52 Jim “The Anvil” Niedhart just got a foul ball. Isn’t that nice. And, for the four of you that get that reference, yes, I liked the WWF when I was a kid.
10:54: Jacque Jones apparently doesn’t like the hanging curve down the middle. Stared at two of them in that at-bat.
11:00: The Twins are hack-tastic. Lay off the belt high curve, swing at the pitch in the dirt. Did they install Shawon Dunston as hitting coach?
11:03: Does anyone look less comfortable at the plate than Scott Spiezio? He’s got all the grace of a 14-year-old asking the hottest girl in class to dance.
11:06: You thought “Hey now, get all of it” is bad. The Minnesota Twins, “Every Fan Counts”. Seriously.
11:11: Seriously, do the Twins have any plan at the plate? They stare at pitches in the strike zone with two strikes, than chase pitches in the dirt. Freddy’s not throwing many great pitches, but the box score is going to make him look like Cy Young.
11:14: Folks, Raul Ibanez is an awful defensive left fielder. The five assists can’t even begin to make up for the anchors he has strapped to his legs. We’ve got a first baseman in left field.
11:18: Last year, Garcia implodes after the blooper falls in. This year, well, he hangs a few pitches that Koskie misses, but gets the groundout anyways. Not buckling down, but not falling apart either.
11:22: An hour seems to be my limit. My bed is calling and my alarm taunts me, so I head to slumber. Go M’s.
And welcome back Pat Borders. The M’s optioned Ben Davis to Tacoma today, and really, he deserves it. He’s something like 4 for his last 842, and at this point, any hope that he was ever going to live up to his fabled potential is wishcasting. It’s time to admit that Davis is a waste of the $1.5 million we’re paying him and not count on him for any significant contributions. No, Pat Borders isn’t the answer, but he’s certainly not any worse than Davis, and maybe he can throw some magic Crash Davis dust on Pineiro.
My really, really long article on the 16-inning game on Tuesday is up at Baseball Prospectus. Check it out if you have a lot of spare time.