Note: I totally agree with Derek’s basic premise, which is that Franklin is due for a much worse year, will see his ERA skyrocket even if he doesn’t pitch any worse, and is about as poor a candidate as one could find for an improved win total this year.
I don’t, agree, however, that Franklin was lucky at “not having runners on when he gave up dingers.” I know the DIPS argument well, but believe that people have taken the findings too far, making claims like the above and believing them to be true. Now, Derek just made an off-hand comment, and I doubt he’ll disagree with this, so don’t take this as an attack on the coolest new guy in Bellevue.
Isn’t it possible, or even probable, that Franklin gave up a majority of his home runs with nobody on because he was far more willing to throw a pitch that could potentially result in a home run when it would only cost his team one run? Do we really assume that Franklin is just as likely to throw a get-over-strike with runners at first and second as when the bases are empty?
Strategically, it makes a ton of sense for Ryan Franklin to intentionally give up fly balls last year, with an amazing outfield defense and a big outfield that bats down fly balls behind him. Franklin hasn’t always been an extreme fly ball pitcher, but the one year he happened to have teammates that would make that a beneficial strategy, he maximized it to full effect. I don’t feel that it was a coincidence, and I won’t be too surprised if he makes a focused effort to induce more grounders this year.
The overall findings that a pitcher has little ability to consistently control whether a ball is a hit or an out on a ball in play is interesting and helps analyze performances. Pitchers who avoid contact are indeed better bets for success, and Franklin’s alarmingly low strikeout rate is a big red flag. However, the DIPS theory does not prove that a pitcher cannot influence where a batted ball goes, as there are many instances of extreme ground ball/fly ball pitchers, who clearly and consistently exert influence over where a batter hits a ball, even when it doesn’t leave the yard. To assume that Franklin had absolutely nothing to do with the fact that a large majority of his outs last year came because Mike Cameron and Randy Winn were tracking down fly balls in the gaps is to overstate the findings of the DIPS theory. Franklin may not be able to control where every ball is hit, but I’d guess that with the liabilities roaming the outfield now, we’ll see Franklin pitching quite a bit differently than he did in 2003.
Derek’s chat was pretty good. I especially like the part where Bootylicious asked him who was going to win the NL West. See if you can guess what he said… I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
As some of you may know, I write for the Grand Salami magazine sold outside Safeco. I spent the weekend working on player profiles (as well as my regular column and minor league feature) for the April issue, and doing so made me realize just how crappy the bench is going to be. Leading the way is Quinton McCracken, an average (at best) fielder who can’t hit. And yet, he’s our backup centerfielder an in line for quite a bit of playing time if any of Ibanez, Winn or Ichiro get hurt. Given their respective salaries, is there any good reason why Jamal Strong shouldn’t have McCracken’s roster spot? Next up, Dave Hansen. Hansen’s OK, I guess, except that (as we’ve covered here before) there’s nobody for him to pinch-hit for. This spot on the roster should have remained Greg Colbrunn’s, as he’s right-handed and a better hitter. What’s that over there? Make way for Wee Willie Bloomquist, the cutest, scrappiest, hard workingest utility player you ever did see! Except that he too cannot hit, and is limited defensively (contrary to Bob Melvin’s opinion that Bloomquist can play SS and CF). Rounding out the bunch will be either Ramon Santiago or Eric Owens. Owens, McCracken, McCracken, Owens… it’s all the same to me. Santiago’s no great shakes, but at least he plays an acceptable middle infield.
OK, I think I’m about done now (well, other than to say I agree with Dave 100% on Kevin Jarvis — it’s ridiculous that he’s being considerd for a roster spot).
Today’s funny story: “Ryan’s hope: More run support“. Ryan is singled out as “due for some good luck” and… it’s just so funny.
“The team’s offense was lacking most of the season in the games Franklin pitched.”
Interestingly, there’s something to that
Run support by Mariner pitcher:
Pineiro, 6
Meche, 5.99
Moyer, 5.73
Garcia, 5.36
Franklin, 4.84
That’s almost a run/game over the average Mariner starter. And since run support is purely chance, sure. But among Mariner pitchers, kis K/BB ratio was terrible (1.62), his K/9 also bad (4.2!!), and he was lucky in having balls in play turned into outs, and not having runners on when he gave up dingers. Players around him in K rate were David Wells (who walks nobody, ever), Maroth and Damian Moss. Maroth and Moss had ERAs of 5.0something and 5.73 — Franklin had *3.57* and gave up the same number of home runs as Maroth did. Franklin was hugely lucky last year, even if run support didn’t come through for him.
Next year his defensive support will be worse, and his offense might not be any better. That’s not a formula for increasing win totals, no matter what a gamer he might be.
Reader Paul Covert sent in this from the latest Gammons column:
Surely this can’t mean what it seems to mean, can it?
“Then Melvin is going right-left the rest of the way, with Randy Winn, John Olerud and Raul Ibanez in front of Edgar Martinez in the five hole, followed by Bret Boone, Scott Spiezio and Rich Aurilia. ”
Paul may mean “Olerud in the 3-spot? Whaaa?” or maybe “Isn’t that L-B-L-L-R-R-B-R, rather than right-left?”
Both are good questions.
Updated! Paul writes:
No, actually, what I meant was was: “He’s putting the two best hitters in the lineup at five AND SIX?!?!!” But yeah, Olerud at three and the not-exactly-left-right thing are also related concerns.
Also just in — I’m chatting on BP today at noon Pacific time. Come on down for some fine live chat action. And not the kind advertised late at night.
The infatuation with Bloomquist is pretty stupid, but not that uncommon. There’s just something about nice, caucasion, local utility players who can’t hit that most organizations fall in love with. Bloomquist is just following the tradition of guys like Craig Counsell, Joe McEwing, and Bo Hart. They get labeled overachievers who managers love because they get everything out of their lack of talent, and, for some reason, that makes it okay to be terrible.
Also, am I the only one amazed by the fact that this organization is one of the deepest in baseball in terms of quality major league ready relief prospects, and have guaranteed two roster spots to the likes of Ron Villone, Terry Mulholland, Mike Myers, and Kevin Jarvis? Does no one else find it odd that the Mariners continue to waste resources already in the organization so they can discover why every other team in the majors discarded these wastes of space?
Hey, all. I’ll be pimping this in the future, too, but for those who plan way, way in advance:
Portland readers — come hang out
PORTLAND April 7th
Barnes & Noble @ 7:30pm
1720 N Jantzen Beach
Portland, OR 97217
503-283-2800
aaaaaaaaand a week later, all you faithful U.S.S. Mariner readers here in Seattle can come out to the downtown Seattle B&N on your lunch hour a week later —
SEATTLE April 14
Barnes & Noble @ 12:30pm
600 Pine St., Suite 107
Seattle, WA 98101
206-264-0156
Free pizza at both locations! I think. I’ll sign anything (almost) that you want to see significantly decrease in value. Fair chance someone will attempt to do me bodily harm!
And by “fun,” I mean it’ll make you want to beat your head against the wall.
First up: Bob Melvin’s obsession with Willie Bloomquist. “For me, Willie’s on the team,” Melvin said. “He’s such a great fit on a club, he’s got so many attributes that may not be noticeable to an outsider, but he really helps a team.” Further, “This is a guy we can use at shortstop or center field and don’t worry about what kind of game we get,” Melvin said. “How many players at any level can you say that about, and we’re talking majors here.”
OK, no. You can’t use Willie Bloomquist at shortstop or in centerfield. I cannot state this strongly enough. And what does that mean, they don’t worry about what kind of game they get? That makes it sounds as if they’re just throwing players out there without regard to performance, which is pretty odd thing to do.
Next: Kevin Jarvis. Kevin Jarvis worked two innings after Meche and had his best outing of the spring, and officially is still competing for a bullpen job. He also officially is a bad pitcher, in case anyone is keeping track of such things, and has no business on the M’s roster. This isn’t the Detroit Tigers we’re talking about — this is a contending team, and that’s no place for a pitcher of Jarvis’ ilk.
Finally: The left side of Tacoma’s infield. Jose Lopez and Justin Leone are projected to switch back and forth between short and third base, and it might be difficult to keep Santiago ready to fill in if the Seattle club needed to bring him up. Leone and Lopez are projected to switch back and forth? Look, I like Leone, but he’s not a shortstop. He’s a pretty good third baseman, and he probably has a better chance to make the majors as a utility guy than otherwise, but this jerking around of Jose Lopez has got to stop. If he’s going to have value, it’s as a shortstop, because he isn’t likely to hit enough to play third.
Sometimes I think I’m better off not reading these beat writers.
Thanks to everyone who sent in replies to my plea for help on Photoshop and Excel recovery. Our readers rock, no questions asked. And, since I’m on a non-baseball post roll, anyone want to buy a nice used digital camera? (Note, don’t buy it through the link. I just used his page to show you what mine looks like). I’m upgrading to a digital SLR, and in order to finance this move, I need to sell my previous, still working tremendously, digital point and shoot. Basic overview: 3.3 megapixels, extremely small and light, included accessories of 6 sets of AA NIMH batteries, rapid charger, 3 smartmedia storage cards (16, 32, and 64 MB respectively), a mini-tripod, and a case. Have original box, all cables, and manual. Its in perfect shape and is a tremendous personal digital camera. I’m asking $300 for the whole kid and kaboodle. Considernig Steve’s Digicams wants $329 for just the camera, you’re getting a heck of a deal.
Questions and/or offers, drop me a line with something camera related in the subject to make sure I see it.
Back to baseball soon, I promise.
Baseball Prospectus ran a Prospectus Triple Play today that included this tidbit — the PECOTA projected AL West standings
Team W-L RS/RA
Oakland 91-71 788/689
Seattle 86-76 799/753
Anaheim 83-79 748/724
Texas 76-86 835/892
I know I’ve been saying that the M’s are a 85-win team for a while now, but I’m sort of shocked to see some giant computer agrees with me. Also interesting, though… I thought the division might be a sack race to see who could limp to 85 wins, and instead PECOTA sees the A’s as a 90-win team today.