I see both sides of the fence in the Soriano argument. Everyone agrees that starters are inherantly more valuable than relievers, and you shouldn’t flippantly convert a starter into a reliever without cause. However, there are cases where it is obviously the right move-Francisco Rodriguez, for instance-and turns an average starter into a dominant force out of the bullpen. While 200 innings are certainly more valuable than 80 innings, I think people have underrated the value of an ace reliever. If you believe Soriano can throw 70-90 high leverage innings and post an ERA below 2.00, that is a tremendous weapon that has alot of value.
Essentially, the question becomes how good of a starter you think he can become. If you feel he’d be no better than average in the rotation, where his lack of a third pitch and stamina could become issues, then he’s more valuable to the team coming out of the pen. However, as Jason notes, 23-year-olds rarely have three major league pitches, and giving up on Soriano as a starter because he looks like a dominant closer today is short-sighted. Good organizations give their players a chance to improve on their weaknesses and develop into something better tommorrow than they are today. The Mariners have consistently focused on the shortcomings of young players, especially pitchers, to the detriment of their development. Soriano may belong in the bullpen, but putting him there permanently because he lacks a change-up at 23 is ignorant.
We’re going to face this exact same dilemma in a year, maybe less (usual caveats about health apply), when Clint Nageotte forces an audition. He also profiles better as a reliever, and will be categorized as a power-arm capable of dominating out of the bullpen. Converting both of your dominant upper-level pitching prospects into relievers, however, is a tremendous waste of resources, especially for one so intent on spending millions on proven closers. If the M’s believe that Nageotte will end up as a reliever in this organization, than it is even greater incentive to keep Soriano as a starter. People can talk about the depth of pitching all they want, and it is a strength of the organization, but this rotation could get ugly in a hurry, and the team can’t afford to be moving prospects to the bullpen while depending on the likes of Ryan Franklin and Gil Meche for 200 innings a year.
Ideally, they would have traded Franklin during the offseason to open up room for Soriano in the rotation, but they’ve made their bed and now have to lie in it. The current roster is best constructed with Soriano as the ace reliever, but that is as much an indictment of the way this roster was shaped as it is a declaration of his viability in the rotation.
I see also (wow, three posts in a row) that the M’s will add Jay Buhner to their Hall of Fame. About freaking time, is all I have to say to that.
Allow me to update my previous post — Soriano is now apparently out three to four weeks with a strained interior oblique muscle on his left side. That earns a big “ouch” from me, both for his injury and the team.
I still think he (Soriano) can start, but maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part. He’s already got the fastball, and the consensus seems to be that his slider came along quite nicely last season. That gives him two pitches, which obviously isn’t enough to succeed as a starter (at least not for long). That said, how many guys come along at age 23 with much more than even a servicable changeup? Not many. I’d like to see them make his third pitch a focus this year, but I think there’s still plenty of time for him to learn, especially considering he’s not likely to be in the starting rotation when the season starts. It’s too early at this point to give up on him as a starter and commit him exclusively to relief, in my opinion.
Of course, there’s also the news that he’s suffering from some sort of abdominal strain, which means he might fall behind a bit in camp (not that he needs a good camp to win a job, or anything).
Oh, and a hearty “Welcome Aboard!” to anyone finding us today for the first time thanks to Angelo Bruscas’ article in the P-I (featuring our own Derek!). We invite you to take off your coat, have a look around, and stay as long as you like.
Soriano’s made some comments about wanting to become Mariano Rivera. I guess if there’s a reliever to emulate, the multi-inning work of Rivera isn’t so bad, but… if you’re going to dominate, dominate as a starter.
I’ll toss this out to my fellow deckmates here: Does Soriano have the repetoire and requisite strength to take a regular turn in the rotation, or is he destined for relief as many think?
The PI’s got a nice story on the M’s blogosphere. My only quibble would be that the recommended blogs exclude Mariner Musings, which is good stuff.
From the rubbing-it-in department: the Pirates signed RF-R Raul Mondesi to a 1-year, $1.5m deal. Though a righty, Mondesi was a far better hitter than Ibanez last year, and cost many millions less to get. The M’s signing of Ibanez to an expensive multi-year deal continues to look like one of the crazier moves of any team this off-season.
Sooooooo Pocket Lint wrote a fine article that ran Sunday. And by fine I mean it also does a great job showing exactly how amazingly clueless the M’s management is.
The Mariners say they would have jumped in, spikes up, if they had known the Texas Rangers would be so generous in getting rid of the former Seattle shortstop.
Asked if Seattle would have gone after Rodriguez, Mariners president Chuck Armstrong called it “a no-brainer.”
Okay, one, you can’t jump into something spikes up unless you’re taking a header.
But here’s the point: Rodriguez almost went to the Red Sox. Clearly, he was available. I can’t believe they were so busy negotiating Ron Villone’s deal that nobody in the front office could have called the Rangers up to say “Hey, sorry the Red Sox deal fell through. We might be willing to take on his contract without dumping another on you… what do you need to make a deal?”
This is crazy. Armstrong later says that their reports were that the Rangers… reports? They read the paper? No one called and asked? Did their calling card run out of minutes?
“We offered him more than that, in terms of salary,” said Seattle CEO Howard Lincoln of the short-circuited negotiations to keep Rodriguez after the 2000 season.
Now, no one outside of the M’s is really privvy to what went on, but if you followed the story you know that the M’s did not offer more than *Alex will be paid* in terms of salary, and they certainly weren’t anywhere near on guaranteed years, and they didn’t like the escalator clauses either. Finnigan shockingly does mention this: that the M’s offer was 5/$95 ($19m/year). While strictly speaking Lincoln may be correct, from Alex’s side it wasn’t remotely close.
Finnigan also repeats this gem:
One old, but unconfirmed story is that Boras, who was unavailable to comment, recommended the club shorten its offer, so that his player would not be tied up so long and have a chance at a subsequent contract.
Here’s a thought: if it’s unconfirmed, don’t write it. This is beyond rumor mongering, and just a cheap shot.
Then he lionizes Lincoln for predicting the demise of the Rangers:
Lincoln also was prophetic when he added, “I think it is impossible to field a winning team when you pay a player as much as Texas is paying Rodriguez.”
That’s not the problem. Alex’s contract has never been the problem in Texas: it’s been everywhere else they spent money stupidly, from Chan Ho Park on down. They’re not a losing team because they overpaid the best player in the game, they’re a losing team because they’re crap. Perpetuating the easy myth that Alex’s contract hurts the Rangers helps the Mariners because they can use it as a cover for not pursuing or signing top-tier free agents.
Plus the news that the M’s might be after Alfonso Sorianio, who we now know is 28 and has probably peaked already, a deeply flawed hitter with a lot of potential who Ks all the time, as a possible center fielder. Soriano would be like Mike Cameron with 15 more HRs and no defense. Who could resist such temptation?
BA has posted their version of the Mariners top 10 prospects, and you can read Jim Callis’ overview and report on #1 prospect Felix Hernandez for free by following the link. While I appreciate their optimism surrounding King Felix, I had to chuckle at Jim’s line that Hernandez “just needs to learn how to pitch.” Well, that would be the most important thing to learn. It’s kind of like saying Lance Armstrong’s kid is the best cycling prospect in the world, and all he needs to do is learn to ride a bike.
Overall, Jim did a nice job with the top ten, and I only have a few quibbles. Calling Shin-Soo Choo the organization’s best defensive outfielder is either a tremdendous overvaluation of arm strength or simply incorrect information. Choo’s range in right field is average at best, he takes poor routes to the ball, and teammates have an impossible time communicating with him. They also say good things about Jose Lopez’s glovework, which is probably the product of organizational spin. He hasn’t been an above average defender in two years.
Also in the current issue of Baseball America is an article by the Tribune’s Corey Brock on the Mariners strategy for signing international players and eschewing the draft. If you are a BA subscriber, make sure you don’t miss it. If you’re not, you should be. Brock’s piece is a good read, which is the norm for Corey, who is a good writer and, (in the interest of full disclosure), a friend of the U.S.S. Mariner crew.
As an aside, anyone who is planning on being in Florida for spring training from March 13th-15th should email me. I’m going to be hanging out in the Grapefruit League for a long weekend, and always enjoy meeting up with readers. Suggestions on interesting places to eat in Vero Beach/St. Lucie are also welcome.
And, while I’m here, thanks to everyone who emailed me about email accounts. My old account came back to life, but I ended up opening a free account with fastmail.fm as a backup. I appreciate all the help. You guys rock.