I just want to address a couple of notes that have piqued my interest around the blogosphere in the past few days.
The Mariner Optimist has a note about the possible shift of Safeco Field from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park, or, at least a neutral park, based upon the second half surge in offense seen in the Northwest. While it is tempting to credit the new honeycomb-substance for improving the batter’s eye and increasing offensive levels, it is far, far too early to make assumptions about this being a permanent change. Park Factors are often inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, simply due to sample size and varying factors (weather being a vital one), and breaking an already small sample size in half can lead to serious problems. To me, the fact that Safeco played as a hitter’s park in the second half of 2003 is interesting, but we need a lot more evidence before we assume it will play that way in 2004. History shows that Safeco Field is a pitchers park, and the generally accepted reasons for this (heavy air, giant gaps in left center field, wind almost never blowing out) are unchanged. I have never believed the effects of the hitting backdrop was very significant, and I certainly don’t see it as enough of a change to shift Safeco from being a predominantly pitcher-friendly park. It will be interesting to see how it plays in 2004, but at this point, the wisest assumption is to believe that it will again favor pitching.
Benny Looper was quoted last week as saying “Jose Lopez could play in the majors right now.†Technically, this is true. Jose Lopez has a pulse, is under contract to the Mariners, and will presumably bring his cleats and glove with him to spring training. He is physically capable of playing in the major leagues in 2004. However, that is entirely different from being able to perform at even a serviceable level. Lopez is a nice prospect, though at this point, he is more potential than performance. He has some skills and, with a wise development plan, could be an answer on the infield for the Mariners in several years. In reality, he shouldn’t see Seattle until late 2005 at the earliest. History is extremely unkind to players of Lopez’s skill-set being pushed to the majors quickly, and Mike Caruso should be the lesson here. Let Lopez begin 2004 back in Double-A San Antonio, and if he shows he can hit, consider moving him up at the all-star break. There is simply no reason to rush him to the show, and the odds of him actually helping the Mariners win games this year are somewhere between slim and none.
In the same prospect vein, I’ve seen several bloggers appealing for Chris Snelling to win a job on the 25-man roster out of spring training. As much as I like Snelling, this would not only be a waste of development time that he badly needs, it is unlikely that Snelling would provide much value in the role. The knee surgeries have robbed him of the needed range to play center field, so he’d be limited to backing up Ibanez and Ichiro in the corners. Unfortunately, all three swing the bat from the left side, so a platoon is impossible. Expecting Snelling to be able to produce enough offense to be a suitable replacement for either Ichiro or Ibanez on a regular basis is over-reaching, and both he and the Mariners are best served by letting him rack up at-bats in Tacoma, while the M’s give those at-bats to a veteran right-hander who can tee off on southpaws.
Finally, a cautionary note about a lot of the prospect lists we’re going to see popping up on the web over the next few weeks. A lot of sites put out “Top X Prospects†lists, mostly by reading Baseball America, adding in their own personal bias’, and rearranging to make it their own. Unfortunately, what it boils down to is a lot of uneducated guessing. While I’m a huge fan of statistical analysis, prospecting is a whole lot more than comparing performance and adding in an age/level adjustment. To accurately gauge a prospect, you really need to analyze his performance as well as his physical abilities, also factoring in the organization’s views on the player and their plan for his future. To do this well for more than a handful of players is essentially a full-time job. While meaning no disrespect to the hard-working folks out there trying to break into the prospect landscape, there are still only a few sources that should be taken with any true authority. Baseball America is obviously the cream of the crop in the field, and individuals such as John Sickels and Deric McKamey have proven to be quality talent evaluators as well. Baseball Prospectus provides the statistical look at prospects better than anyone else, though that can only get you so far. As far as national coverage goes, if it doesn’t come from one of those four, you are best off taking it with a big grain of salt. Covering an organization in depth, like we do with the Future Forty or Jamey Newberg does for the Rangers at the excellent Newberg Report, is one thing, but covering all 30 is a monumental task that can’t be done well by someone who is not being paid for their time.
It only took until February 5th, but we have the first official sign that baseball is almost here; newspapers filling space with quotes about a player being in the best shape of his life. 2004’s first target for this cliche’ is Eric Chavez, as Ken Macha gushes:
“Eric said he is in the best shape he’s been in his life,” Macha said of the third baseman, who is at 220 pounds after rigorous offseason workouts. “He said to me something like it’s time to fulfill the potential.”
Of course, unless you think Eric Chavez can’t hit lefties (.229/.278/.395 last three years) because he was out of shape, that career year probably isn’t coming. If I was an A’s fan looking for good news about Chavez, I’d hope for a quote along the lines of “I spent my entire offseason taking batting practice from Eddie Guardado. Not only can I now hit lefties, but Eddie’s arm is going to fall off from throwing me 300 pitches a day.”
Expect to see similar quotes about the Mariners as they trickle into camp for the next two weeks.
Willie Bloomquist spent the offseason in a gym adding muscle mass and now tips the scales at an impressive 143 pounds!
Wiki Gonzalez hired a personal trainer to prove that he isn’t the laziest player in baseball!
Quinton McCracken used his double major from Duke to invent a new natural supplement that gives him the strength of ten men!
Just remember, none of this means a thing. Being in shape is great, but if you’re last name is Bloomquist and you play for the Mariners, you still can’t hit major league pitching, regardless of how much body fat you have.
You may recall that MILB.com, where I like to look for minor league transactions, has apparently stopped carrying them (much to my dismay). I checked back today to find this: “We are aware of the Transactions problem. We are in a transitional phase and are working to correct this problem. The tracking of player movements will definitely be a part of our coverage of the 2004 season and beyond.”
I added links to some of the newer blogs, or at least blogs we didn’t yet have links for:
Dead Reckoning (M’s News Blog)
Bavasi Stinks
Sabermariners and
San Shin
Enjoy. I’m also getting to work on a new Big Board, one without Kazuhiro Sasaki.
Three cheers for Mike Sugimoto. Yesterday morning, I wish for a Mariners News Blog, and a few hours later, voila! A great addition to the blogosphere. We’ll have it linked on the sidebar shortly.
I like it when pitchers and catchers report. It reminds me that baseball is getting ready to start, that preparations are being made for spring training and the season, and that the long winter, when those of us stuck up here in Seattle endure short days with no sunlight (except today… ahhhhh) for months on end, idly contemplating suicide because at even Hell is at least hot and dry, is finally passing.
And while I advocated trying to get Pudge to bite on a 2-year deal for mucho money, I have to say.. for him, if he’s smart, knowing what others have pointed about the decline of great-hitting catchers, he was likely correct to take a 4-year deal for $40m than a 2-year deal for $30 and then hope to get re-signed again afterwards and try and make that $10m up.
Random thoughts.
1. How cool would a Mariners News Blog be, in the spirit of the Baseball News Blog, providing frequently updated links to help us find the good stuff throughout the blogosphere? Very cool, to answer my own question. Someone should make this happen.
2. Why are tuxes so freaking expensive to rent? Seriously, is there another industry in the world where you can rent an item for one day and charge 75 % of the sale price of the item? And if its “traditional” to say the exact same thing to your spouse, why can’t it be traditional to wear the exact same thing as everyone else, so that your groomsmen don’t fork out hundreds of dollars to rent different tuxes for every wedding?
3. Am I the only one hoping that the time lapse between the reports that the M’s were interested in Ron Villone and now means that someone in the front office might have noticed that he’s not very good?
4. Living in the hotbed of college basketball is awesome. Tickets to the Wake Forest-North Carolina game on Saturday are being scalped in the hundreds, for a regular season game that will have little to no impact on the two teams seasons. The crowd intensity at a college hoops game is unmatched in regular season sporting events. And, on that note, if anyone can help me obtain a ticket to Cameron Indoor to see a Duke home game, I’ll be forever grateful.
5. Am I the only one who hates it when pitchers and catchers report? Its like going to a restaurant and watching the waiter serve the people next to you their food. For two weeks. No games. No meaningful action. Lame quotes. But just interesting enough to remind you of what you’re missing.
Derek’s right, I wasn’t going to bring it up. Despite the fact that this will probably kill Justin Spiro’s credibility in the eyes of most, I really don’t think it should. He got burned by an overzealous source. It happens to everyone who reports on what those “who wish to remain annonymous” tell them.
As I’ve made a good number of friends in the industry over the past two years, many of whom like to tell their friends things “off the record”, I’ve learned that some of it is interesting, some of it is ridiculous, and some of it is just crap. 99 percent of it is speculation, or their opinion, or in some cases, something they want to test public reactions on by getting it out there. I’ve kept a ton of stuff to myself that people wanted me to spread, simply because I don’t care to be the source of rumors. Some people like that gig, and live for breaking stories. I could care less if I’m the first or the fifteenth person to report something, as long as I provide something that is interesting to read. There are times I’ll sit on something until its announced as planned out of respect for the club. I’m sitting on an announcement that a major league club has hired a minor league baseball writer as an area scout right now (that will come out later this week, probably, not like most of you will care either way). I don’t feel a journalistic responsibility to make public everything I know. At the same time, I don’t expect everything that we post to be held to the same standards of a news reporting agency.
I’ll report some stuff, and I’ll refute some stuff, when I feel like its necessary. The Pudge-to-Seattle rumor was so blatently wrong that I felt like I should shoot it down. But, don’t give up on Justin Spiro because of this. I’ve never talked to him, and I don’t know anything about him, but he’s not the first guy to get burned by a source, and he won’t be the last.
Ivan Rodriguez signed with Detroit today. We got some nasty email when Dave, writing on January 23rd, said that Justin Spiro’s (Detriot Sports Net) report that Ivan had agreed to sign with the Mariners was wrong. Particularly, that we were frequently full of ourselves and tooting our own horn for being right about things (though these same detractors were unable to provide me examples — I think we let our record speak for itself and figure our readers know what’s up).
But because I know Dave won’t, I’d like to remind those people that wrote in that Dave was right.
On the scalping issue: yaaayyy. It’s bad enough the team gets to enforce crazy regulations like “you can’t sell your tickets for below face value in front of Safeco” but that they do it while actively trying to get into the scalping business themselves is appalling. The M’s defense has been “Our way is legal, and scalpers aren’t…” but if it was legal to kill someone in Everett (is it?), would it be right to do so? I hope that this does something to remind fans that the M’s aren’t owned by a charitable organization, they’re run to make a great profit.
It’s always been insane to regard team owners as doing some public service because they sign the checks of local sports stars. If there was a way the Mariners could burn down Safeco Field and get the insurance money, we’d all be making s’mores tomorrow on the charcol at First and Royal Brougham.
Derek, in particular, will appreciate this article and the ruling which inspired it. Basically, Seattle Municipal Court Judge Jean Rietschel said the M’s are scalping tickets — illegal in Seattle — via the Ticket Marketplace section of their website, and as such, it doesn’t make sense to punish people caught scalping tickets on the street outside Safeco.
The kicker for me was this line: The judge found that if the M’s didn’t pay undercover city cops to enforce the law, including instructing them exactly where to patrol, such busts would not occur.