Matsui’s coming to the US. Had a press conference and everything.
Sorry I’ve been out, I’ve been having this problem with this wireless network*, it’s driving me in-fricking-sane. (skip this paragraph unless you want to geek out, but seriously. I’ve got router A, laptop B, PC C. Everything worked fine until this weekend, when the PC decided it didn’t want to connect to the router, except when it did, and then it just drops it, buuuut if I hook up the LAN cable to the router, boom, I’ve got a LAN and a wireless connection going, and… I’m baffled. I’ve got ~2p of notes on what I’ve done and un-done trying to find a solution to this, but the short-version — such as it is — is that wireless technology is still not to the point where everyone can plug-and-play and enjoy no-headache Internet access. My notes are filled with comments like “this makes me think fondly of the ease-of-use of my old Hayes 2400 SmartModem”.)
For a moment though, I’m going to answer reader email, calm down and talk about Freddy (and remember folks: if you went to Kentridge and I know you, you get your emails answered automatically).
What do we see for Freddy’s future?
I see two possibilities. One is that Freddy, by chance or choice, finds himself working with a pitching coach and catcher that can bring out the best in him. Stan Williams had him in his rookie year, and then his Bryan Price years have been up and down. His Borders starts were (as we saw) excellent, but I haven’t been able to go back and see what his work with other guys breaks down like. I think he’s deeply unhappy being in Seattle, especially after we (and by we I should also say that I was in the front of the pack) gave him so much grief when he spent so much time pitching badly. It may be that he needs a guy like Oscar Acosta, someone known for taking no lip and kicking pitchers in the ass, and a Borders-like catcher unafraid to yell at him if he starts grooving breaking stuff in every pitch.
Garcia’s a year away from determining his own destiny. It would seem that he’s more likely to take the highest offer than find an environment where he’d succeed best– and I’m not sure Garcia knows if it’s him, or his coach, or if he’s just let his relationship with the team and coaches poison his on-the-mound ability.
Barring career-changing injury, there are two paths Garcia’s career will take:
Motivated Garcia: Freddy finds something in himself or finds the right supporting players to keep himself focused during the game, and not let a bad strike call or a muffed grounder cause him to blow his stack. He pays more attention to the scouting reports, and really works to become a better pitcher. This Freddy is a good-but-not great pitcher for years to come, a guy who never dominates a league in the way Randy Johnson or Pedro does, but still consistently one of the twenty best pitchers in baseball.
Inconsistent Garcia: Freddy doesn’t get his head right, doesn’t find the right manager, coach, or catcher to keep him charting pitches. This is the Freddy we’ve seen for too long now: a guy who can go out and throw a good game, another, and then get blown apart by the Tigers. His frustration will probably grow with his own struggles, and he’ll get ejected more often, and become known as a bad clubhouse guy who leaves his team in the lurch. Instead of a first-tier pitcher, he’s a third tier, a James Baldwin-esque gamble for teams who have a 3/4 spot they need filled on the cheap that might bear big returns, and might not. The upside to this is maybe Freddy, years down the line, realizes what’s happening and decides that he wants to really make a run at greatness, and we see the first scenario play out again.
And which one’s actually going to be the future of Freddy? The bad one. Until Freddy has his act together, I don’t think a team should gamble more on him than they can reasonably expect they’d pay for a comperable starter who’d offer consistency, though not the upside of Freddy’s raw talent — and that’s only $1-3m/year on short-term deals.
The issue becomes this: is the additional fame and fortune that comes with being great Freddy enough to make him shake off this funk?
And I don’t think it is. I’d like to be wrong, my view too bitter from exposure over the last year and a half, but I haven’t seen it in him yet. I don’t know Freddy enough to know that or pass judgement, but at the same time I think every Mariners fan has seen that there’s a huge distance between the Garcia that had confidence in his stuff and him ability to pitch and the guy we’ve seen lately, who isn’t comfortable with himself or the team he’s on, and doesn’t know what to do about either.
Jason and Dave, most likely, will have better, well-reasoned opinions on this. If they have troubleshooting tips on this $@#%@ Linksys PCI card/networking issue I’m having, that’d be even better.
In the spirit of Pocket Lint Finnigan, here’s my plan of action for the M’s off-season after I make his miracle trade.
1. Trade John Olerud and Freddy Garcia to the Yankees for Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano.
2. Take the Royals up on their Beltran-for-Soriano offer.
Ding! Order up!
And then maybe fire him a third time
Kim Ng, formerly an Officially Endorsed Candidate for Mariners GM, is in the news for the wrong reasons — Bill Singer of the Mets got drunk and made an ass of himself in a hotel bar after an Arizona Fall League game. From the New York Daily News which has the only detailed account I found this morning:
According to people at the conference with knowledge of what happened, an apparently drunken Singer approached Ng and belligerently asked: “What are you doing here?”
“I’m working,” Ng replied.
“What are you doing here?” Singer repeated.
“I’m the assistant general manager of the Dodgers.”
“Where are you from?” Singer asked.
“I’m from Indiana,” Ng said, referring to her birthplace. She was raised in Ridgewood, N.J.
“No, where are you from?” Singer asked.
“My family is originally from China,” Ng said.
Singer then allegedly started speaking gibberish, making fun of Chinese – which led Cashman to act, sources said.
—
The Mets are still employing Singer, though they’re waffling on whether or not that might be the case. They’ll probably try and gauge public reaction to see if they have to.
They should have fired him on the spot. Oh, I know how hard it is to actually fire people, and the lawsuits you can incur, but this is a clear case where you have to fire someone and come out and say “I only wish we employed other members of his family and his friends so we could fire them, too. We’re considering re-hiring him so we can fire him again.” And if he fires a lawsuit on the termination, you counter-sue for damage done to your organization and get to destroy them on the stand in front of a jury, and the worst thing that happens is some of your lawyers are tied up for a while making an expressive point about your organization’s feelings about the matter.
This is just stupid.
I did like that Ng made Singer run around the block before he could act like an idiot. “Where are you from?” indeed. She’s from America, you racist slack-jawed yokel, same as you. Get over it or move to Russia.
Early contender for most comical trade suggestion of the off-season: Freddy Garcia and John Olerud for Alfonso Soriano and Nick Johnson. Uh, yeah, the Yankees would go for that one.
Wait — Finnigan has something nearly as comical in the very same article. “If the Phillies discuss a deal for [Freddy] Garcia, former Seattle favorite David Bell’s name could come up. Passion like Bell’s was sorely missed by the Mariners the past two years.”
I couldn’t make this stuff up if I tried.
Dear readers, if you’re like me, you’ve often thought to yourself “where can I get a baseball card of that one guy we thought would be okay or good but never amounted to anything….” and then you think of what, ten, fifteen different guys off the top of your head, and one of them is Marc Newfield, right?
Well, someone out there thinks $9.99 is a good starting point for bidding on a Marc Newfield rookie card.
You’ll note, of course, that they haven’t gotten any bids. For one-tenth the price, you can get a Russ Davis autograph. At least Russ Davis had some value to the Mariners at some point.
Also, I know this isn’t going to change anyone’s methods, but I have never looked at an item listed with a description like “Seattle Mariners MLB *WOW* L@@K L@@K Nice”
I mean really, come on. Do I look like some country bumpkin, easily duped into looking at items with vague descriptions and come-ons? If I wanted to be treated like that, I’d hang out at the county fairgrounds.
A couple readers have emailed us to say that Melvin hinted at an M’s event that there was a pleasant surprise in store for M’s fans w/r/t shortstop.
What’s that mean?
a) M’s are trading for someone… but who’s available out there they’d get? This seems unlikely.
b) M’s are signing someone… but who? Matsui seems the obvious big candidate, not a serious Guillen upgrade. Sanchez did well by the team, though that hollow average is cause for concern, and we should rightly worry the team saw something there that would lead them to offer a bad contract. Tejeda’s going to want more money and years than the M’s will offer. That leaves… well, some ugly options, none of which are pleasant surprises. My deepest fear is that Melvin’s gotten the team to bring on another ex-Diamondback, free agent Tony Womack, who for years has at once been one of the worst offensive and defensive shortstops in the major leagues. Royce Clayton? Jose Hernandez? Rich Aurilia?
The best option here is Matsui (well, it’s Tejeda, but the best realistic and probably best-for-the-team’s-health option is Matsui). So here’s hoping.
Guillen made $2.5M last year, and if there’s one truth about arbitration, it’s that players get raises (deserved or not). Let’s suppose the M’s file at $3M, a marginal raise. Guillen’s agent knows they’ll offer at least a small raise, so now he’s likely to file for at least $3.5M. For discussion purposes, I think we probably should figure he’ll make $3.5-$4M next season.
However, I think it’s easy to save some money in order to pay him (and potentially Cameron more than $5M if needed). How? Don’t sign Batista for $4M. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’d be a nice guy to have, but at the same time there are guys like Rett Johnson, Clint Nageotte, Bobby Madritsch and even Julio Mateo (think about it!) who could take that 5th starter spot and make next to nothing doing it.
As Jason pointed out, there are some flaws in my plan, most notably the guesses on what arb. eligible and free agent acquisition players will cost. If I’m off even a little bit on several players, we’re over budget, as I didn’t leave much wiggle room. To answer a few questions, though:
1. Will Guillen really get significantly more than $2.5 million? That was his number this year, and he’s coming off a /.276/.359/.394 line in a year that he only played 109 games. He doesn’t have any sexy numbers that you can look at and say “hey, this guy deserves a raise”. He’ll probably get one just on service time, but I don’t see it being a significant raise.
2. The biggest stretch in all this is Mike Cameron at $5 million. I’m near certain he’ll get offered more than that by the Mets, and that would mean he’d have to take less money to stay in Seattle, which he probably won’t do. But I want to see Mike Cameron stay, and so I’m doing a little wishcasting. If he does leave, then you don’t trade Winn for prospects and sub him into centerfield instead at a slightly lower salary. The defensive downgrade from Cameron to Winn is enormous, though, and people are underestimating Cameron’s effects on this team.
3. Edgar’s base salary is $3 million. I tossed him an extra million since he’s almost certain to reach some of the incentives.
4. No, I’m not sure Justin Leone is ready to be an everyday player on a contending team. But I’d rather give him a chance to fail, then make a move at the deadline if he’s not the answer. These are the kind of risks that, if they pay off, provide a huge advantage for the team. If they don’t, you can still recover and find a replacement in season.
5. Miguel Batista made $3.3 million last year and the D’Backs declined his option for $5 milion. Clearly, they view his value as something less than $5 million, but I have to think he’ll get a raise after a very solid year. Thus, the $4 million number, which could be totally off base.
6. Paul Quantrill opted out of a deal that would pay him $3.5 million next year. Clearly, he’s expecting a raise. After posting an ERA 131 percent better than league average, I’d say he deserves it too. Before you think Dodger Stadium was the reason for his 1.75 ERA, he was better on the road than at home. And I should clarify my “murder on righties” comment; he’s awesome against left-handers too. Quantrill is a two-inning relief ace who can dominate hitters from both sides of the plate. He throws strikes, is durable, and has a strong track record of success. He’s given up 3 home runs the past 2 years. He’s an outstanding reliever, and unless he sees some kind of serious decline, $4 million for his services is a good deal.
7. Taylor is basically a name to fill that spot, but I would give Simpson, Looper, Putz, and Rett Johnson looks at that role as well. I have no problem going into spring training letting the kids fight for the last two spots in the bullpen. The M’s pitching depth is one of their biggest advantages, and they should use it to full strength.
Uh, ditto. I’m speachless, really, at how well it all works out.
OK, so I do have one thing to say — Carlos Guillen will get more than $2.5M in arbitration, possibly blowing your budget but not by much.