Has 3B coach Dave Myers ever seen a runner too slow to wave around third? Sure, it was great seeing Davis bash the hell out of Ramon Hernandez, but so far this series we’ve seen luck bail him out of two obvious bad decisions at the hot corner waving around slow runners.
Running Over the A’s
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Wild Speculation
5 games remaining against the A’s
3 games remaining against the Angels (for the A’s, 3 v Texas)
Ignore for the moment the Angels/Rangers
M’s win all 5 remaining: M’s 93-66, A’s 92-67, M’s by one
M’s go 4-1: M’s 92-67, A’s 93-66, A’s by one
M’s go 3-2: M’s 91-68, A’s 94-63, A’s by two
.. and so on
Let’s just look at the first two:
M’s go 6-0 in the last two series, it’s 93 wins to 92 wins. If the A’s manage to grab one more win from Texas than we do with Anahiem, it’s a tie, and we go to a tiebreaker. So 0-3 versus 1-2, 1-2 versus 2-1, all result in a tie. If Oakland grabs two more wins, which seems unlikely, they take the division title.
So even if the M’s sweep the remaining games, there’s still a very good chance we’ll end up tied and see a one-game playoff (and maybe another one with Boston if we tie them, too).
If the M’s go 5-1 in the last two series, it’s the opposite. If the M’s manage to grab one more win from Anahiem than Oakland does with with Texas, it’s a tie, and we go to a tiebreaker. So 0-3 versus 1-2, 1-2 versus 2-1, all result in a tie. If Seattle grabs two more wins, which seems unlikely, division title.
So if the M’s lose one of the next five games, there’s still a decent chance we see a tie.
4-2 or worse is pretty much wave bye-bye to the division title.
All of which to say is this:
Assume Oakland goes 0-3 against Texas. The M’s need to go 5-3 or better to finish the season with a good shot at a tie or the division title.
1-2, the M’s need to go 6-2.
2-1, the M’s need to go 7-1
3-0, the M’s need to win eight games in a row.
Anything can happen in this short a period of time. It’s worth noting that the Angels are essentially fielding a AAAA team of their PCL team plus 3-4 major leaguers a game (like spring training, which I highly recommend). Texas, though, got whupped the last time they faced Oakland, a three-game sweep in which Oakland outscored them 24-11. Still, they have a pretty good 1-5/6 lineup…
We’ll see.
Coming soon: more GM candidates not named Derek Zumsteg in further useless speculation about how to improve the team, and a HUGE HUGE HUGE preview of off-season turnover, or lack thereof.
“Don’t Give Up Hope” Picture of the Day ™
C’mon kid! The M’s haven’t been eliminated yet! You gotta believe!
I’m well stocked for tonight, with an assortment of snacks, many salty, yes, and beers, good and bad, and hopefully the game tonight is going to reverse what’s been a pretty crappy day today characterized by bad customer service (brief aside: if I have a beer and then you give me incorrect change, and correct it, and I ask a question like “So, the beer was x then?” to make sure we’re cool, that’s no reason to tear into me for not paying attention to the particular happy hour rules of your establishment) (side note: I really miss the legendary Kelly, Greatest Bartender of All Time)).
One of the many bad qualities of the wild card playoff berth is that it’s scoreboard watching, and not direct competition. While the Mariners may have a better chance that they’ll come out ahead of Boston in the won-loss column, there’s no way for either team to affect what the other team does on a given day. The M’s can’t send their best pinch-hitters (hypothetically, if they had any) to Toronto to try and steal a game from Boston. Boston can’t loan Oakland a spare corner OF.
The race the M’s control through 6 head-to-head matchups, starting tonight, is the one they’re going to be hard-pressed to come out on top of. As far back as they are, a split is death for their AL West chances. They need to go 5-1 to make this a race, and if you’ve been watching these teams matchup so far this year, you know what the chances are that’ll happen. And to remain in the race against Boston, the M’s need go 4-2 at least while Boston faces Cleveland and likely does well there.
Friday: RHP Franklin v RHP Hudson
Saturday: RHP Pineiro v RHP Duchscherer (pronounced Duhr-ro-shcer-rer-rer, TV tells me)
Sunday: RHP Meche v RHP Harden (ESPN2, folks, and this could be an huge, pivotal game)
Touché.
I blame Jason for not having a birthday every day.
I hate it when there’s an afternoon game and nobody tells me. I was home all day with nothing to do and could have been listening to the game. I couldn’t have watched the game, but who am I to complain? I didn’t even check the schedule. Instead, I found it by accident about the 7th. Oh well.
In any event, it’s too bad for the rain delay — sounds like Freddy was pitching well once again. Since he started working with Pat Borders, he’s put up the following line: 19 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 6 BB and 15 K.
As for the part of the game I did catch, I don’t understand why Box Melvin refuses to use Rafael Soriano for longer stretches. He hasn’t worked longer than 1 2/3 innings since August 14th, when he held the Blue Jays to one hit in three innings. Melvin should have been able to get three innings out of him again today, meaning Hasegawa — who pitched last night — wouldn’t have had to pitch a second inning (the 10th). It’s a small sample size, sure, but Shiggy’s ERA this month now sits at 5.40. He also seems — I don’t have numbers to back this up — to fail when Melvin leaves him out there for a second inning.
In the end, though, none of this should matter. You’ve got to score some freaking runs against Texas pitching, particularly down in Arlington. Any time you hold the Rangers to a lone run over nine innings, that should pretty much be an automatic win, no questions asked. Ugh.
Baseball’s the only part of my life where I’m superstitious at all, which is why I’m reluctant to post this but… maybe the M’s should take Freddy to arb, kick his butt this time, get a 10% pay cut, and then spend the Useless Roster Spot on Borders, who gets signed for not a whole lot.
In divisional rival news, by watching the A’s-Angels game today I managed to see the entire AL West in one day. Sweet game, too:
Zito: 8.3 IP, 2H, 2BB, 6K
Shields: 8 IP, 4H, 6K
Shields really looked good — so far this year he’s been badly roughed up as he gets deep into games after converting from relief. And Zito’s got that huge-breaking curve ball that looks like something out of a cartoon.
And then I watched a bit of the Braves v. Expos game, and saw something extraordinary. The team was getting pounded by the Braves, and in the 7th if I remember, Alou pulls Vlad Guerrero from the field. The crowd loudly applauds Vlad at length — it may be the last time he plays in an Expo uniform, and 17,000 people showed up for the last game of the season. Then they start booing and chanting “Guerrero” and they’re loud. Later in the inning Frank Robinson comes out to pull the pitcher and the crowd just gives it to him. I called Jonah Keri (“Official U.S. Mascot of the Montreal Expos”) and he said they’ve got the loudest small crowds in the league, and I have to believe him. Those fans were nutty. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, MLB should be ashamed for so utterly failing to support baseball in Montreal.
Also, for all the talk about what a great job Frank Robinson does, the one thing he has not been able to drill into that team is baserunning acumen. They make more mistakes running around the diamond than a high school team should.
Thanks for the win guys. I appreciate it. M’s win, I had nice dinner out* with the wife… all in all, a good birthday.
By the way, Dave, as long as we’re talking about guys Gillick wanted, don’t forget Gookie Dawkins.
(*) If you haven’t already, check out the Library Bistro. It’s at the Alexis Hotel on 1st and Madison; used to be the Painted Table. Good food, good atmosphere, great desserts. I also know they’re baseball fans (or at least someone there is), because they advertise in the Grand Salami.