Game 147, Angels at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Jered Weaver, 7:10pm
Jered Weaver has been fairly consistent in his approach and arsenal – he still slings a rising fastball and pairs it with a good change-up and slow curve. He’s still a fly-ball pitcher as a result, and he’s managed to post low BABIPs for 10 years now. Now though, he’s doing all of that with a fastball that averages 84mph. He’s reinvented himself a few times – tweaking his approach, but keeping the basic mechanics constant. But he hasn’t quite figured out a way to make his stuff work at 84mph *when he isn’t pitching in Anaheim.* Since Jeff Sullivan wrote a series of articles about Jeff Weaver and pitching during day games at home, we’ve known that Weaver seems to get an extra boost from his home park – a park that suppresses HRs for everyone. That advantage was key when Weaver was one of the AL’s top starters, but it may be even more important now that his stuff is so marginal.
Last year, Weaver had a 3.09 FIP at home and a 5.59 on the road, largely thanks to the fact that his HR rate was 3 times higher on the road. His K rates were similar, though higher at home. This year, his FIP at home is up to 3.56, while his road FIP is 5.69, actually better than his 6.24 road ERA. His road HR rate is now only double that of his home one, but he’s no longer able to miss bats on the road – his K% is halved when he leaves Orange County. Most players are better at home, so it’s not like his road stats represent his true talent, but gaps like this are pretty rare. Hisashi Iwakuma has big ERA splits this year (he’s been better on the road), but it isn’t replicated in anywhere near the same magnitude in his FIP, and in any event, his career numbers are close to even. But with Weaver, he’s had sizable gaps for a long while, and it’s starting to look like he wouldn’t have a rotation spot if he wasn’t able to do whatever he does to stave off his HR problems at home. The M’s know this phenomenon well: Weaver’s been good against them at home, but they’ve hit him hard in Safeco. In his career, Weaver’s allowed the MARINERS to post a HR rate of 1.5 per 9 in Safeco – a pitcher’s park used by some of the feeblest offenses in recent baseball history.
After dominating lefties at his peak from 2010-2012, Weaver’s platoon splits are beginning to look a lot more normal. At his peak, his K% was higher and his HR% and FIP lower against lefties than righties. In the past two years, that hasn’t held true, as lefties started to drive the ball more than righties. His platoon splits from 2014 on show about a FIP that’s a half a run higher against lefties. That shouldn’t be a huge surprise given Weaver’s arm angle, but it shows how good his change was back when Weaver threw 89-90. Still, the secret weapon back then wasn’t his breaking stuff or even his great change. When he was on, Weaver’s fastball proved extremely difficult for lefties to square up. Since the start of 2014, lefties have hit Weaver’s fastball hard. Weaver never really relied on velocity for his success, but it’s possible that some aspects of his approach just don’t work at velocities at the extreme tail of the big league distribution.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Smith, RF
6: Trumbo, LF
7: Montero, 1B
8: Miller, CF
9: Sucre, C
SP: Iwakuma
Game 146, Angels at Mariners
King Felix vs. Nick Tropeano, 7:10pm
Happy Felix day. If you’re able to see through your disappointment in the season, the M’s are actually pretty fun to watch right now. Today’s game looks like a mismatch on paper, and I’d certainly take a mismatch on the field.
Tropeano is a former Houston Astro, who some of you may remember made his big league debut last year against the M’s down in Houston. Flipped to Anaheim in the deal that sent Hank Conger to Houston, he’s spent nearly all of 2015 in AAA – I say NEARLY all, because he’s made 4 spot starts throughout the year. After pitching quite well in the PCL in 2014 – he was the league’s pitcher of the year – he struggled in the high-altitude environment of Salt Lake, though some of that may be due to the abysmal team surrounding him. Still, for a guy with a reputation for command and pitchability, his line with Salt Lake doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. The walk rate was far too high, and while his strikeouts were up, Salt Lake exerted the kind of influence you’d expect on a fly-baller like Tropeano. That combined with problems stranding runners (whither the “pitchability” people talk about?), and it was a forgettable year.
Still, he’s come up and in very limited duty looked like what you’d want out of a back-of-the-rotation starter. He’s displayed command in the bigs, if he didn’t in the PCL, and he’s getting more strikeouts than he did in Houston. The problem is that he hasn’t stopped giving up runs. His FIP is awesome, thanks to the fact that he’s STILL not given up a HR in his 8 big league starts, but his ERA and RA/9 are awful. Regression may help with his BABIP or strand rate, but it’s going to come for that 0% HR rate, too. One of the reasons why it’s zero – at least this year – is that he’s pitched each of his four previous starts in dinger-suppressing Anaheim. This is his first road start, but he’ll still yet to play in a neutral park, let alone a hitters’ park like Texas.
Coming up, the report on Tropeano was that he had a so-so fastball at 90-91, but a good change-up that generated whiffs. In his very, very brief career, what we’ve seen is *slightly* different. His four-seam fastball is indeed 91, and has very un-remarkable movement, sure, but his change-up has been somewhat problematic. It gets some whiffs, but not too many, and this year, batters have knocked it around without much trouble. Instead, it’s been his slider – a pitch not really mentioned much in reports – that’s been his best offering. The slider gets two-plane break and, unlike his change-up, gets actual sink. This year, he’s started to use it to lefties as well, and he’s throwing a few less change-ups.
In the minors, Tropeano showed pretty large platoon splits – another sign that his change may not have been a great pitch, or that his slider was underrated. Thus far, that hasn’t been true in the majors – it’s been righties who’ve done much of the damage. Of course, his career’s too new to know what to make of that, but he hasn’t been a guy who’s struggled due to seeing tons of opposite-handed hitters.
King Felix remains awesome.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Smith, RF
6: Trumbo, 1B
7: Gutierrez, LF
8: Miller, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Felix Hernandez.
The M’s won’t face him in this series, so I can just bring it up here: the Angels’ young righty Andrew Heaney is one of the first big league players to try a new way of mitigating the risk a pitcher making the league minimum faces: he’s selling a chunk of his future revenue. A company called Fantex (which has deals with a few NFL players) will pay Heaney $3.34 million in exchange for 10% of his future earnings – from salary and endorsements alike. Heaney gets a life-changing amount of money even if his arm falls off tomorrow, while Fantex then effectively sells “shares” in Heaney’s future earnings. Fantex mitigates some of Heaney’s risk, and then Fantex disperses that risk across however many people buy shares. It’s a very interesting arrangement, and I’m eager to see how many people sign up – both players and regular joe “shareholders.” Apparently, the MLBPA is on board with it, which makes some sense – we’ve seen teams like Houston offer their own way for youngsters to mitigate risk: signing small long-term deals at below market (but still above league-minimum) rates. George Springer turned them down, and stayed in the minors as a result, while Jon Singleton signed such a deal, to the consternation of the union. Having an option to mitigate risk that doesn’t artificially suppress future earnings – and isn’t directly with management – seems like a decent deal. Of course, we’ll have to see how willing Fantex is to offer larger sums – Fantex probably can’t or won’t offer as much as teams will. Risk-averse players may still go the Singleton route. In any event, it’ll be fun to watch. Which pre-arb players in the M’s system would you buy stock in?
Game 145, Angels at Mariners
Garrett Richards vs. Taijuan Walker, 7:10pm
The Angels head to Seattle with their playoff odds at or below 1 in 5. Depending on who you think the Angels *are*, they can be as high as 20% (according to Fangraphs, which has them winning ~ 83 games), or as low as 11% (according to BP, where they win ~82 games). They aren’t yet zero, and with flawed teams like Texas and Minnesota above them, they probably shouldn’t be. But with less than a month to go, they’ve got a sizable gap to overcome, meaning they absolutely need to win games against teams like…well, the Mariners.
With their ace on the hill, you’d have to like their chances. Garrett Richards is having a Felix-of-2015 style year after his brilliant Felix-of-2014-style year in last year’s campaign. To be clear: Richards isn’t Felix – Felix not only has him on durability and innings pitched (Richards has yet to top 200 IP in any year), but has him on K:BB and FIP, two rate stats. That said, Richards rode a freakishly low HR rate and an excellent K:BB last year to post a FIP of 2.60. This year, the K:BB isn’t what it was, and more fly balls are finding the seats, and his FIP’s all the way up at 3.71. That’s somewhat similar to Felix, who posted a FIP of 2.56 a year ago, and this year has seen it rise to 3.56. Both guys have had disaster starts of 1-2 innings, but both are still top-of-the-rotation types who log quality starts consistently: Richards has 20 quality starts in 27 opportunities this year, essentially the same rate as last year.
Consistency is not a word that would leap to mind when you think of Taijuan Walker’s 2015, not with its horrific start, then great run, and then a more volatile past month. Taijuan’s ERA isn’t indicative of his true talent, as his K:BB’s been solid, and his generosity with the HR is already factored in to his decent-ish FIP of 4.18. Tony Blengino had a great post at Fangraphs that partially explains the gap: Walker simply allows much harder contact than the average pitcher. In Walker’s case, it’s not that he’s given up a ton of hits, leading to a high BABIP (though he WAS doing that early in the season), it’s that so many of the balls in play are hit very hard – this has led to HRs, but it’s also meant more extra base hits. Walker has a normal BABIP but a very high ISO on balls in play. More problematic than this hard contact is WHEN it comes. With no one on, Walker’s ISO is just .123, and his SLG%-against is .333. With men on, that ISO rises to .262, and his SLG%-against is an insane .581. No matter what your K:BB ratio, you can’t survive for long when you turn the league average batter to face you with men on base into Josh Donaldson. The question is why: as we’ve mentioned many times, it’s not that Walker struggles out of the stretch – he ONLY pitches from the stretch. It’s not a big change in approach. It’s either mental, or sequencing that falls into predictable patterns. An expanded repertoire – one that would include a true slider, let’s say – would help.
Here’s the odd thing, though. Walker’s horrific struggles with men on base hasn’t exactly hurt the M’s. Sure, sure – those runs given up has clearly had an impact on their odds of winning, and without those struggles, you’d figure the M’s would’ve won a few more ball games. But the M’s are 16-12 in games Walker’s started. As a comparison, the Angels are… 16-11 in games started by Garrett Richards, their ace. Obviously, a team’s record in games started by each player is, at least in part, luck-driven. Some times the bullpen’s implosions are concentrated on one starter. Some times run support is much better for one guy (Walker’s received 4.5 runs per start, while Roenis Elias has to make do with 3.0, and Richards is only at 4.0). In any event, despite Walker’s inconsistency, the M’s haven’t *really* suffered for it.
Richards problems with the HR ball come down to one pitch: his hellacious slider. I probably talk about this too much, but Richards’ breaking balls look like nothing else when viewed through pitch FX. Despite his freakishly low-spin fastball, his slider comes in at 87-88 with tremendous downward break, nearly 3 standard deviations more than average. His curve is quite similar – 81mph, with 2-3 standard deviations more “drop” than other curveballs. Both pitches generate whiffs and ground balls as a result, just as you’d expect. So it wasn’t a huge shock that he didn’t give up a single HR on either pitch last year – he only gave up 5 dingers in all, after all. His ISO-against on breaking balls was .022 for sliders and .026 on curves – on just about 1,000 pitches-thrown. That’s too extreme to last forever, perhaps, but regression’s been particularly cruel to Richards’ slider. This year, he’s given up *8* HRs on it, and his ISO is up to .163. It’s still a very effective pitch, but his mistakes have been punished pretty severely. You have to wonder how much of this is the result of hitters reacting to it once they’ve seen it. Once you see the drop on it 10-20 times, it may be easier to mentally tell yourself, “like a curve, only faster” and adjust your swing path. That’s why I keep waiting for Richards to switch to his curve: he’s never given up a HR on it, over several years. Sure, the fact that he uses it sparingly probably has a lot to do with that, but if familiarity breeds dingers, it might be worth while to ease up on the sliders a bit: he throws 30%+ sliders these days, compared to just 5-6% yellow hammers.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Smith, RF
6: Trumbo, LF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: O’Malley, CF
9: Hicks, C
SP: Walker
Game 144, Rockies at Mariners
James Paxton vs. Kyle Kendrick, 1:10pm
Sort all pitchers who’ve logged at least 100 innings by FIP, and Kyle Kendrick comes in dead last, #125 of 125 pitchers. Only 5 guys have made at least 20 starts and posted a FIP starting with a 5. Kendrick isn’t among them, because his 6.16 mark if off the scale. To make matters worse, his ERA has actually been worse than his FIP, thanks to a so-so BABIP and struggles with men on base. His fangraphs page is a charnel house; a HR/9 that starts with a 2, a K% under 12, RA/9 WAR and fWAR solidly in negative territory.
Enough of that, though. Kendrick is a graduate of Mt. Vernon high up in Skagit County, a school that also produced one of my favorite low-K, high-HR survivors, Mark Hendrickson. Hendrickson pitched in a slightly different era, but had a similar game: very low K%, low walk totals, and the HRs that came as an expected by-product of that approach coupled with high fly ball rates. You can say that Hendrickson pulled it off while Kendrick hasn’t, but that’s the thing: up until this year, Kendrick had too. Kendrick came to Colorado with a bad FIP, but a surprisingly good ERA and a solid W/L record. Sabermetric fans saw Kendrick-in-Colorado as a disaster waiting to happen, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that he logged a lot of innings in a reasonably tough place to pitch and came out bruised by unbowed.
Maybe the point is that, despite the constant tinkering, not all adjustments work, or at least, they don’t work everywhere. Kendrick already ditched his four-seamer for a sinker, and he’s played around with a curve ball as well to complement his cutter and splitter. Kendrick could make MORE adjustments, of course, but you don’t get to the big leagues by changing everything about your game because you struggle. Kendrick probably still believes in his stuff – I just think what he believes about Coors Field couldn’t be printed in a newspaper. Kendrick’s 2015 is one of the worst seasons we’ve seen in recent memory. No one’s thrown over 120 IP with a FIP starting with a 6 in over a decade: broken Scott Kazmir, Jose Lima’s disastrous 2005 – they got close, but couldn’t touch Kendrick’s mark. Sure, the run environment changes the FIP constant, but it just shows how out of step Kendrick is with MLB starters in 2015. And yet, he’ll be back. He’ll still throw 89, and his splitter won’t sink enough, but he’ll believe that his luck is gonna change. I hope it does next year. Just not today.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Trumbo, LF
6: Smith, RF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Miller, CF
9: Baron, C
SP: Paxton
Welcome back, James. I remember when he first got hurt, “at least it’s just a finger injury.” Several months and another lost season later, he’s finally back from that strain. Hopefully it’s nothing serious, and he’ll be fine for next year, but his injury history is pretty lengthy now.
Game 143, Rockies at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Yohan Flande, 6:10pm
The delightfully-named Yohan Flande is a walking embodiment of the replacement-level concept. A left-hander who’s pitched in the Phillies, Braves and Rockies orgs – and who was acquired as a minor league free agent – Flande has spent several years putting up mediocre results in several minor leagues. Without a real putaway pitch and with surprisingly suspect control, Flande seems like a great guy to stash in the upper minors to ensure someone can make a start every 5 days while your prospects shuttle up and down the ladder. For someone like that, of course, signing with the Rockies may be kind of appealing, because the nature and severity of their pitching woes means you might get to do the whole “well, he’ll be able to make a start every 5 days” thing in the big leagues. Such is the case with Flande, who got to make 10 starts for Colorado last year. He gave up comparatively few HRs, but a sub-60% strand rate meant his ERA started with a 5. The decent FIP was encouraging, but it hasn’t lasted. This year, Flande has gone the other way, stranding plenty of runners and benefiting from a low BABIP. But all the fly balls that found gloves this year are finding the seats, and thus his FIP is firmly in sub-replacement-level territory. His ERA is better, and by RA/9 WAR, he’s been a contributor thanks in large part to the soft bigotry of huge park effects.
Flande is actually a bit like Chad Bettis in that he has a very sinker-ish four-seam fastball. Paired with a change and slider that both get ground balls, and Flande is actually an elite GB% guy. As his GO/AO ratio shot up upon his arrival in the Colorado org, you have to figure this was a conscious decision, or the product of a slight tweak. Whatever it is, it’s been successful at getting grounders, but it hasn’t exactly solved the larger problems. Namely, that Flande is a lefty with a 90mph fastball and spotty command. If everything goes right, he’s capable of getting a grounder. If he misses, the ball goes a long, long way. Worse, his change-up is actually more effective against lefties than righties. For whatever reason, righties seem to see his fastball well and have a high HR/FB ratio on everything he throws. Thus, Flande has huge platoon splits and it’s not clear how he’s going to fix them. This is a game where Trumbo/Cruz et al need to make Flande pay.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Trumbo, LF
7: Montero, 1B
8: O’Malley, CF
9: Hicks, C
SP: Elias
Game 142, Rockies at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Chad Bettis, 7:10pm
Since 2011, the Rockies have put up a combined record of 334 and 453, a bit worse than the M’s 367-421 mark. Both teams have somewhat extreme home parks which may or may not play a role in oddly specific player development challenges. This year, the Rockies lead the NL in average, slugging percentage and OPS. Since their last playoff appearance in 2009, the roster’s completely turned over (especially now they finally moved Troy Tulowitzki) – only Carlos Gonzalez remains, and he was a mid-year acquisition. The point is, the Rockies had to essentially start from scratch and acquire a line-up. They picked up Nick Hundley to catch, they developed a 3B (Nolan Arenado) who now leads the league in HRs, their CF has been surprisingly effective for so long it really shouldn’t be surprising anymore. They needed to develop an offense to compete in a high-scoring environment, and by and large, they did so.
How does that square with the record I mentioned above? Their pitching hasn’t just been bad, it’s challenging the notion of where we set the imaginary line called replacement level. Let’s be clear: a great deal of this is park related. At altitude, the ball doesn’t break the way it does at sea level, and pitchers without breaking balls tend to sidle up to replacement level production standards. But all of the losing the Rockies have done has allowed them some pretty high draft picks, and they’ve selected a number of highly-regarded hurlers who’ve dominated at times in the minors. At some point, minor league hitters start figuring them out, and major league hitters feast on them. It’s the mirror image of the M’s struggles at developing hitters. LHP Christian Friedrich was a 1st rounder in 2008, and laid waste to the low minors before starting to struggle in AA. I saw him briefly in 2012 in AAA, and he looked like a clear big league starter. After initial success in Colorado, the league adjusted, and Friedrich has a career ERA near 6 and he’s become a middle reliever on a bad ball club. Jon Gray was the 3rd overall pick in 2013 and made 5 incredible starts in the California League that year, striking errbody out while showing impressive control. In 2014 in the AA Texas League, he was merely good as opposed to great, but seemed on track to debut in 2015. He did so, but not without serious issues in the PCL. While he misses his share of bats, he’s been oddly hittable, a trait he brought with him to Colorado for a quick cup of coffee with the Rockies. Eddie Butler was another low-minors star, and a supplemental first rounder in 2012. With plus velo and a good breaking ball, he shot through 3 levels in 2013, yielding just 96 hits in about 150 IP. Like Gray, even scuffles in AAA couldn’t prevent him from making his MLB debut, and while that went about as poorly as it could’ve, he was still a promising young pitcher. This year, like Gray, he’s struggled everywhere he’s pitches, losing his hold on a big league rotation spot and pitching poorly in AAA. All three of these guys were top 50 prospects in baseball. All of them showed not only potential but impressive results, and then all three of them started hemorrhaging runs and hits. They are the mirror image of Mike Zunino, Dustin Ackley and…take your pick, Jesus Montero? Justin Smoak? And as with the M’s disappointments, you wonder if the big league park isn’t just in the players’ heads, but if it starts to warp player development. Fittingly of course, the M’s have reached out to recently-fired Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd about the vacancy here in Seattle.
In this series, the M’s will face not these major disappointments, but the fungible pile of minor league vets and later-round picks the Rockies have assembled because this is baseball and pitchers really are required. Today’s starter, Chad Bettis, is a good bridge between the two groups. A 2nd round pick, Bettis had success in the low minors, showing good control and missing bats. He didn’t have the pedigree of Gray or Friedrich or the undeniable pure stuff of Butler, so when he struggled a bit in the high minors, it wasn’t a shock. Cups of coffee in 2013 and 2014 were disastrous, but he’s made some improvements in 2015 while transitioning to the rotation. He throws a four-seam fastball, which would seem risky for a guy in Colorado with some HR issues, but it’s not a rising fastball – instead, it behaves much like a sinker. He’s got a change with sink that functions as a good ground ball pitch, and a curve that misses some bats but which right-handers tend to see pretty well. The natural sink on his fastball, plus that good sinking change, allow him to post a solid GB%, but the combination of Colorado and command lapses means he can’t fully reap the benefits of it. Righties have teed off on him, and his walk rate is still a bit high for someone without the stuff to pitch around them.
1: Jones, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Trumbo, LF
6: Smith, RF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Miller, SS
9: Hicks, C
SP: Iwakuma
Let’s hear it for King Felix. The way he’s looked after a bit of rest makes you wonder why the M’s haven’t done this before, and it makes me, for one, hope that they might make some adjustments next year. Whether that’s a 6-man rotation or just a 2nd half re-shuffle to get both Felix and, if he’s back, Iwakuma, some extra rest to prevent late-season swoons we’ve seen from both guys.
Game 141, Rangers at Mariners
King Felix vs. Derek Holland, 12:40pm
Vidal Nuno’s night wasn’t quite perfect – not with that weird control lapse in the 2nd, and not with a couple of HBPs (though one of those was, let’s just say, questionable). But with a game score of 83, he put up one of the better starts of the year.* What struck me wasn’t just the surfeit of whiffs – that was interesting, but Nuno’s approach will get him swings and misses, particularly if he gets to face Drew Stubbs – but the nature of the contact against him. Even when the Rangers hit a ball hard, it went straight up – Shin Soo Choo’s fly out to CF looks dangerous in a box score, but the launch angle meant it never had a shot to leave the yard. Nuno induced a flurry of topped ground balls and IF pop-ups when he wasn’t striking people out. He’s still Vidal Nuno, but that was the platonic ideal of a Nuno start.
Today, the Rangers draw Felix in what’s become a pretty critical game for them. The M’s win yesterday coincided with an Astros win, meaning the Rangers are back to 2 games out in the AL West. And when Miguel Sano homered in the 12th, the Twins picked up a game in the wild card race as well. By BP’s metric, the Rangers playoff odds dropped by more than 11% yesterday, from 70% down to just under 60%. With the Twins and Astros idle today, the Rangers need to make up some of the ground they lost yesterday.
Derek Holland’s making his 6th start of the year, and the 5th since his return from injury. His velocity is right back where it was in his 2011-2013 heyday, and his slider continues to be a plus pitch, with batters whiffing on about 1/3 of them, and over half of their swings on it. He’s only walked 3 batters this year (though he’s also plunked 2), but he’s given up 5 HRs, and HR issues have been an on-again, off-again concern for the lefty for years. Beyond HRs, Holland has never been great at stranding runners, which is interesting given his very good stuff and solid K%. That inability to get out of jams is one reason why his career ERA is higher than his career FIP, despite an average to better-than-average BABIP. In general, Holland has pitched poorly with men on and especially with RISP. So it must have been a pretty fun month for Holland, as his strand rate is currently an off-the-charts 95%, and RISP are hitting .077 against him. This is the kind of small sample oddity that’s ripe for psychologizing, but we’ll leave that to others. This is due for some regression, and may the Mariners be the instrument of that regression today.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Trumbo, LF
6: Smith, RF
7: Montero, 1B
8: Sucre, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: El Cartelua
Welcome back, Nelson Cruz.
* Taijuan Walker’s CG win over Minnesota and Hisashi Iwakuma’s no-hitter are tied for the top spot at 91, and Felix had two games at 86.
Game 140, Rangers at Mariners
Vidal Nuno vs. Martin Perez, 7:10pm
With their win last night (and the Astros’ loss), the Rangers moved to within a game of the AL West lead. And over the past 7 days, the Rangers’ overall playoff odds have jumped up by over 20%, and now stand at over 70%. Some of this is the result of the recent sorting out of the playoff races – the Angels’ and Rays’ slides, coupled with the failure of Cleveland to ever make a real run in the Central means that the Yankees and Rangers have a commanding lead in the wild card chase. Only one team remains under 4.5 game back: the Minnesota Twins, a young team with a negative run differential, and whose BaseRuns performance predicts a record of 60-78, not the 71-67 they’ve actually put up.
But…wait, what about the Rangers? They too are a young team who are counting on some fairly inexperienced players in a playoff stretch. The Rangers have a negative run differential too, and by BaseRuns, they “should” be 65-72, not 73-64. That’s a remarkable amount of luck or skill or *something* that’s driving the Rangers performance. It’s not a case like the Cardinals of a few years ago, where the team was torrid in RISP opportunities. In fact, the Rangers have absolutely sucked with RISP. They have a worse OPS and a much worse wRC+ *than the Mariners* with RISP, and the M’s are no one’s idea of a clutch team. The Rangers’ team FIP and ERA are both worse than the Mariners’, so it’s not like they’re winning a bunch of 2-1 games, either. The Rangers are a very good fielding team, according to DRS and UZR, though they’re only middle of the pack when you just look at the percentage of balls in play they convert into outs.
One reason? The resurgence of previously injured and/or ineffective players like Shin-Soo Choo, who truly looked done in April and May. Since the break, he’s hitting .320/.441/.542. The entire team’s OPS rose from .712 in the first half to .752 in the second. The Rangers were lucky not to be out of the race entirely in the first half, but at least their offense has played like a playoff club’s in recent months. Their rotation hasn’t been as fortunate. Their FIP is up in the 2nd half, and that’s despite the return of guys like Derek Holland and tonight’s starter, Martin Perez.
Tonight’s match-up is interesting to me in that it pits two lefties from the opposite poles of the prospect world. Martin Perez was the #17 prospect in all of baseball in 2010, and made Baseball America’s top 100 list in *5* separate years. A lefty with a plus fastball, he reached AA at the age of 18. Beyond velo (which was always more “good” than “great”), Perez had a very good change-up and developing breaking pitches, and that helped ensure his place on prospect lists even when his on-field results looked more…modest. Despite arriving in AA early, he had difficulty escaping its gravity, and his career marks in the upper minors are underwhelming at best. Perez’s control came and went, and that meant plenty of baserunners. He battled HR issues in AA despite a strong GB%, and that helped push his RA/9 to about 5 over the course of 222 AA innings. He was better in the PCL, of all places, but that’s still damning with faint praise. His strikeouts all but vanished in AAA, and despite a better BABIP, he still gave up 4.3+ runs per 9. Now, Perez is a few months into his return from TJ surgery rehab.
Vidal Nuno was selected in the 48th round of the 2009 draft. In 2010, with Perez enduring the scrutiny of the game’s elite prospects, Nuno was enduring HR problems in A-ball, and would soon be released by the Indians, the club who drafted him out of Baker University, an NAIA school which I hope (and refuse to look up and disprove) is an institution that specializing in the study of actual baking. After a stint in the independent leagues, Nuno arrived in the Yankees org and set about demolishing minor league hitters. His MiLB track record is much shorter than Perez’s because Nuno was older, but also because he didn’t need to repeat levels: his RA/9 was below 3.00 in both AA and AAA, and his K:BB ratio was always at least 3.7 or better. He had a problem with HRs, but with good control and the ability – somehow – to miss bats, it wasn’t a fatal flaw.
Of course, the old adage that you can’t scout a stat sheet is an old adage for a reason. Perez has enjoyed sporadic success at the big league level, and his sinker/change/slider game still produces plenty of ground balls. But Perez still looks like the guy his minor league numbers would’ve predicted: his MLB K:BB ratio is just 2, and he’s still below average in terms of strikeouts. On the other hand, his 4.31 ERA looks better when you consider his home park, and by FIP, he’s been pretty good: his career mark’s below 4 (barely, but still) thanks to HR-suppression. And Nuno? Well, Nuno’s *still* struggling with the long ball, and that’s pushed his career FIP over 4.5. But as with Perez, he’s still the same basic pitcher: he still gets way more strikeouts than anyone with an 88mph fastball and a mean beignet recipe should (seriously: do not look it up. Let’s all just choose to believe Nuno is the greatest ballplayer the culinary schools have ever produced). His career K:BB is nearly 3, and it’s been nearly 4 this year. Neither player is a hulking specimen or throws 100, but Perez just *looks* more like a big league pitcher than Nuno. But despite opposite pedigrees and contrasting approaches/skillsets, they’ve ended up reasonably similar in terms of on-field production. Perez has pitched a few more innings (despite missing a full year), but it’s close. Nuno has a much better career RA/9. Perez has a much better FIP. Going forward, I think their projections are going to look fairly similar, with some improvement in Perez’s K:BB and BABIP, and some improvement in Nuno’s HR:FB ratio as well. Nuno doesn’t really have a job, though, and it’s possible he’ll end up in out-of-option, AAA purgatory. Ah, the power of the pedigree.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Trumbo, 1B
4: Cano, 2B
5: Montero, DH
6: Miller, LF
7: Romero, RF
8: Baron, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: Nuno
Welcome to the bigs, Steve Baron. It’s been a long road for the 2nd of the M’s 2 first round picks in 2009 (#33 overall). Defensively advanced, the M’s believed they could develop his bat over time. After 5 mostly miserable years at the plate, I think we all thought Baron might go the Jesus Sucre route of a useful minor league FA signing, and that his days as a prospect were over, if they hadn’t been over since 2012-13 or so. Then, Baron hit a bit in AA this year, and after moving up to AAA, he hit more. By the time Hicks was called up, I’d have said Baron was the better bat, with Hicks having a slight edge defensively. “Better than Hicks offensively” is a far cry from “look out Buster Posey,” but I’m actually really happy for Baron. The temptation to quit must’ve been there, but he stuck with it. Well done.
Tri-City calmly dispatched Everett in game 2 of the best-of-3 NWL semifinals last night, officially ending the M’s minor league campaign of 2015.
Game 139, Rangers at Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. Cole Hamels, 7:10pm
To the surprise of no one, the M’s added another catcher from AAA Tacoma today, now that the minor league season’s ended. To the surprise of many, that catcher was not Mike Zunino, but Steve Baron. Picking over Zunino’s batting stats seems like it’s kicking a man when he’s down, but it really is a target-rich environment for bloggers. Zunino had one of the worst contact rates, and one of the absolute worst contact rates for pitches *in* the strike zone. I mentioned before the year that he’d need to reduce his O-Sw%, and he did exactly that. It just didn’t matter, due to his problems hitting strikes and a surprising inability to drive the ball at all against left-handed pitching.
Zunino is pretty far off in the tail of the big league distribution for contact, and it’s true that many of the players whose contact stats are similar make up for their failings by walking a lot and/or slugging the crap out of the ball. But in looking at Zunino’s stats, it’s somewhat surprising that the peripherals aren’t *worse*. That is, he’s got a very similar zone-contact rate as Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant, and Zunino’s numbers are better than Chris Davis’ or George Springer’s. You *can* make it in the league if your pitch recognition is poor, but you need to punish the ball – consistently – when you DO make contact. That’s the part that’s frustrating. Zunino doesn’t have to hit as well as Bryant or Pederson or Davis – he’s a good catcher, and that goes a long way. But something was going very wrong with Zunino’s approach, and it’s clear the M’s don’t think it was fixed in the last 10 days. As Ryan Divish reported, Zunino (and SS Chris Taylor*) will head to extended Spring Training where they’ll work with Rainiers hitting coach Cory Snyder. It sounds like Zunino’s not working on tweaks or approach (as he did this spring) but an entirely new swing.
The Rangers’ Joey Gallo’s numbers are, if anything, more eye-popping than Zunino’s. SSS warning, but in a little over 100 plate appearances, Gallo’s struck out 49 times. His O-sw% is similar to Zunino’s, and nothing out of the ordinary, but he’s made contact on only 6 of 10 swings at pitches in the zone – far worse than Zunino. Zunino has the whole “catcher” thing that takes the sting out of poor plate discipline, but Gallo has another good reason for patience with developmental…uh…hurdles: true 80-grade power. It’ll be worth seeing if he can make it work, though his K% spiked after his demotion to AAA earlier this year. The Cubs Javier Baez seems to have made real progress this year, so it’s not the kiss of death, but Gallo’s a great test case; if Gallo can stick in the majors, then Zunino can.
Taijuan Walker’s had a frustrating year, like many of his teammates, but with nearly 2 fWAR already, he’s been incredibly valuable in stabilizing an M’s rotation that’s struggled in the second half. Sure, his ERA is worse than his FIP, and he’s given up too many HRs, but luck has obviously played a part in that. The M’s OF has been, depending on how you measure it, either the worst in the AL or merely below-average, and that’s been tough on a fly-ball pitcher like Walker. His K:BB ratio of 3.7 is promising, and though he’s clearly got plenty to do this off-season, it’s a great sign that this and his K-BB% continues to climb as he gets older. We haven’t seen the best version of Taijuan Walker yet.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Romero, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Trumbo, LF
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Montero, DH
8: O’Malley, CF
9: Sucre, C
SP: Walker
Looking at the M’s WAR by position is kind of interesting. I thought CF might be a possible area of weakness, but they’ve been OK thus far, posting 2.3 fWAR and being essentially dead-on league average at the plate. What *IS* stunning is that Shawn O’Malley has been worth fully 0.6 fWAR of the 2.3. In 4 games. In 15 PAs.
To make room for Steve Baron (and JC Ramirez), who wasn’t on the 40-man roster, the M’s transferred Charlie Furbush from the 15- to the 60-day DL. They had an open spot when they outrighted Lucas Luetge to AAA a few days back.
* Chris Taylor seemed to respond well to small changes recommended by Snyder – he posted an .880 OPS in the 2nd half of the year after struggling in the month before his call-up.
Game 138, Rangers at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Yovani Gallardo, 3:40pm
Happy Labor Day
The Rangers come to town with a game and a half lead on the Minnesota Twins for the 2nd wildcard spot. The Rangers were projected as the AL West doormats by a wide, wide margin and Fangraphs gave them a 2.5% chance of taking a wildcard spot. Minnesota played in a weaker division, according to the projections, but were so terrible that they had only a 2.1% shot of winning a wildcard. 2015, ladies and gentlemen. The Mariners and Red Sox each had odds of winning their respective divisions of over….ah nevermind. This has been a painful year in many respects, but I’ll take some amount of solace from the insane years both Texas and Minnesota have had. You can vary from your projections up as well as down, right? Right Mariners?
Yovani Gallardo has quietly become one of the better and more important off-season trades. Not as big of an impact as the Josh Donaldson deal, perhaps, but the Rangers picked up a quality starter cheap, and then – crucially – held on to him at the deadline just as Anaheim started their slide out of the wildcard competition. The Rangers are 71-64 despite hitting like the Mariners with RISP and despite the fact that Colby Lewis has pitched the most innings on the team by far. Without Gallardo, the Rangers would have had to rely on the plainly not-ready Anthony Ranaudo or they would’ve been forced to keep giving Ross Detwiler starts. Instead, they’ve got a steady 2.2 fWAR or 3.8 RA-9-WAR out of Gallardo for some lower-tier prospects.
Gallardo has a Sean Nolin-esque straight/rising fastball with about 10-11″ of vertical movement and essentially no horizontal run. In recent years, he’s throwing quite a few sinkers – a pitch that doesn’t move like a traditional sinker, but at least has a bit less rise than his four-seamer. His primary breaking pitch is a slider, and he’ll throw it to righties and lefties alike. Coming up, Gallardo threw a curve ball, and while he’s still got it in his arsenal, it’s now in a secondary role. The shape of his fastball and his over-the-top delivery help him reduce platoon splits – in his career, he’s got a 3.76 FIP vs. lefties and a 3.72 mark against righties.
In the past, his rising FB led to very low GB% and a consequent glut of HRs. In recent years, he’s pushed his GB% to around 50%, which is remarkable given his fastballs. The sinker’s clearly helped, but his slider’s done a lot of good, too. While it doesn’t have sharp downward break like some, it’s thrown very hard and its shape is different enough from Gallardo’s fastball that it seems harder for hitters to elevate. It’s essentially a cutter – at only about 3-4mph slower than his fastball. For whatever reason, less than 10% of balls in play off the slider have been fly balls this year.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Trumbo, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Smith, LF
6: Morrison, 1B
7: MIller, CF
8: Hicks, C
9: O’Malley, RF
SP: Elias
Shawn O’Malley is the starting RF. Shawn O’Malley is the M’s hottest hitter. What a time to be alive.
Edgar Olmos has been optioned to Tacoma.
It’s the last day of the Minor League regular season – it’s been a dismal year for the M’s system in general, though there have obviously been bright spots. The M’s seem to need an overhaul of their player development system, which is the kind of the thing a new GM will be eager to start on. I hope this is the central focus of each GM interview the M’s hold.
Tacoma played spoilers, knocking Las Vegas out of the playoffs and sending El Paso instead with their 6-3 win in Vegas. Chien Ming Wang pitched well, and Tacoma put up 5 runs in the 6th. Tyler Olson starts today against MLB vet Tim Stauffer.
Jackson got back to back HRs from Marcus Littlewood and Jabari Henry, but it wasn’t enough as Chattanooga came back for an 11-10 win in 10 innings. Today’s game features Edwin Diaz, now clearly one of the M’s top 3 prospects.
Bakersfield beat San Jose 8-6 behind 6 extra base hits. Tyler O’Neill tripled, but the star of the game was Justin Seager who doubled and homered. Scott DeCecco starts today’s game.
Clinton lost to Cedar Rapids 3-1 despite 5 shut-out innings from starter Zack Littell. Tyler Herb starts today’s season-ender. If there’s any good news, with their win on Saturday, the Lumberkings cannot reach 50 games under .500.
Everett limped into the playoffs, losing last night’s game 11-0. Drew Jackson and Braden Bishop finished 1-2 in batting average in the NWL, with Jackson winning MVP. They’ll face Tri City tonight, but they’ll have to do it without reliever Joe Pistorese, who was suspended 50 games when a banned substance turned up in his urine sample. Pistorese argued it was a prescribed medication, but MiLB denied his appeal, as Jason Churchill noted.