Game 137, Mariners at Athletics
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Sean Nolin, 1:05pm
The M’s enter the game looking like a reasonably decent team. Sure, they’re a go-nowhere team beating up on a last-place team, but watching them is sort of fun as opposed to the chore it was a month or so ago. They’ve made roster changes, weathered injury issues and generally looked like a team with some semblance of a plan. All the same, this exact phenomenon – the September or second-half surge in a lost season – looks awfully familiar. 2012 was a classic of the genre, when the M’s were over .500 in the second half. The M’s offense late in 2011 was rounding into shape too, once the team cut Jack Cust and let Mike Carp and Alex Liddi get regular play. Baseball’s such a data-rich environment, it will always offer you reasons for optimism.
That’s perhaps an overly dim lead-in to a random September game, so let me say that as bad as this year’s been for us, I think it must be worse for A’s fans. At some level, you have to learn to love the process and churn itself. The games, and the people who play them, may turn out good or bad, but to be an Oakland fan, you have to put your emotional investment in the front office the way other people do in players. I don’t think that’s obviously “wrong” or stupid, but it’s pretty unique. If you DON’T do so, you run the risk of buying Josh Donaldson jerseys for your kids and watch as the A’s trade him away. GMs should always listen to offers, and there are fair returns for everyone, but this off-season was something of a test for A’s fans.
It’s probably a bit early to fully judge the deal, but at this point, things look pretty bad for Beane and company. Josh Donaldson may be the favorite for AL MVP, and while the A’s got a few near-MLB ready arms (and of course 3B Brett Lawrie and young SS prospect Franklin Barreto), their ceilings are extremely low. Today’s starter, Sean Nolin, was one of the arms the A’s got in exchange for the best 3B in baseball. Along with Kendall Graveman, Nolin wasn’t highly touted, but tore through the Jays minor league system. While Graveman’s sinker didn’t miss any bats, Nolin’s deceptive, rising four-seamer allowed him to post consistently good K rates. Injuries and exposure in AAA and in brief MLB call-ups slowed his progress, and scouts still don’t see much more than #4 upside.
Nolin’s four-seam fastball is only 90-91, but it has extreme vertical rise – it looks a lot like Chris Tillman’s. And like Tillman, that means that Nolin’s an equally extreme fly-ball pitcher. He pairs it with a good change-up. He’s got a slider and curve, but neither offering elicits a lot of praise from those who’ve seen him pitch. It sounds like he spent much of his time in AAA Nashville learning from Barry Zito, and his slow curve may be better for it.
One of the things that a straight, rising FB is supposed to do is suppress platoon splits. Thus far, that hasn’t really happened – in the minors, Nolin has dominated lefties while battling righties to a draw. That’s kind of hard to square with the idea that his change-up’s a plus pitch; I suppose we’ll see today. Likewise, Nolin’s control was never above average, which hurts his ability to pitch around the home runs that anyone with his flyball% will give up. If he can’t get back to the high strikeout totals he showed in the low minors, and I wouldn’t bet on that, then he’ll have to post consistently low BABIPs. Guys with better control, like Wei-Yin Chen, can be reasonably effective, and Marco Estrada’s volatile but decent as well.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Romero, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Trumbo, LF
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Miller, 2B
8: Sucre, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: Kuma
Keep the ball on the ground, ‘Kuma. A long-time journeyman 2B is the best defensive OF for the M’s.
A late rally carried Las Vegas past Tacoma 8-7. Jesus Montero hit another HR, and Mike Montgomery was decent in a tough park to pitch in, but Sam Gaviglio and JC Ramirez couldn’t hold a 7-4 lead. Chien-Ming Wang starts today in Vegas.
Jackson beat Chattanooga thanks to 3 hits from lead-off man Ian Miller and 5 2/3 sharp innings from Dylan Unsworth. The South African has really settled down after a poor start to the year in his first taste of AA. After getting demoted to Bakersfield, Unsworth seems to have overhauled his pitches -his GB% is up sharply, and he’s been able to compete in the Southern League. The video-game level walk levels (he walked 2 batters in 2013, for example) aren’t going to survive the transition to the high minors, but he’s still learning and adapting – a good sign. Jimmy Gilheeney starts today against Twins prospect Brett Lee. Lee studiously avoids strikeout (you can see why the Twins drafted him), but has given up very few earned runs at every level he’s pitched at. He’s given up a remarkable number of UNearned runs, however.
Bakersfield edged San Jose 3-2 thanks to Tyler O’Neill’s 32nd HR of the year. Ryan Yarbrough struck out 8 over 7 IP; he’s looked light-years better since his return from extended spring training. Today, Brett Ash shares the mound against San Jose’s Jodan Johnson.
Cedar Rapids mauled Clinton 9-3. The L-kings actually out-hit the Kernals. That kind of year in Clinton. Today, Zack Littell makes his final start of 2015.
Everett got shut-out by Vancouver 6-0. The AquaSox host Tri-City tomorrow in the NWL playoffs. Congrats to them as well as the rookie-league Arizona Mariners as the only affiliates to make their league playoffs and the only clubs to finish over .500. Both teams were laden with college draftees, but signs of life are signs of life.
Game 136, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Jesse Chavez, 6:05pm
Happy Felix Day. Our valiant King was signed under the Pat Gillick regime, made his debut during Bill Bavasi’s tenure and signed his extension under Jack Zduriencik. Felix doesn’t seem to care much about the team’s front office, and I don’t think he should, but it’s frustrating to watch the way the M’s have wasted so much of Felix’s peak. At least Ichiro got to play a bit of playoff baseball. One of the most damning indictments of the GMZ era is that their record was so poor despite Felix pitching at or near Cy Young level every year.
Jesse Chavez faced the M’s 2 starts ago, and also in July; he’s still the same sinker/cutter guy he’s been for the past few years, though he is throwing a curve ball now – a pitch he wasn’t throwing back in July. He’s struggled against lefties this year, as his cutter hasn’t been quite as effective as it was in 2014.
Felix’s velocity seems stable, though of course it really ought to be considering that the M’s are giving him some extra days off. Like pretty much every Mariner, a big reason why Felix’s stats aren’t quite as royal as they normally are is that he’s struggled with men on base. With men on, his wOBA against is essentially dead on his career average. But with men on base, it’s been considerably worse. His FIP is about the same either way, so this is essentially a BABIP-driven phenomenon. Normally, you’d say that he’s just gotten unlucky and he’ll be back to being Felix in short order, but we’ve seen this so consistently from the M’s, you’ve got to wonder if something else is going on.
The offense’s situational struggles have received a lot of attention – their .289 wOBA with men in scoring position is the worst in the AL. But the M’s pitchers have been consistently worse with men in scoring position as well, and it hasn’t just been a bullpen problem. If you check out the M’s record just using base runs – which strips out context and just tallies up the puts and takes from each plate appearance – the M’s projected record (65-70) is nearly dead on their actual record (64-71). This doesn’t mean that sequencing hasn’t been important, though – it just means that abysmal offensive performance with RISP has been almost entirely counteracted by the abysmal performance of the pitching staff. Just counting up the hits and outs, the M’s are projected to score 4.33 runs per game. In actuality, they’ve scored just under 4. The pitching staff “should have” given up 4.5 runs per game, but they’re actually giving up a bit more than 4.6. You can look at their pythagorean record and say that the M’s have gotten lucky, but the real story is why other teams convert more baserunners into runs on offense and strand more runners on defense.
Their BABIP with men on is bad as a team, as you’d expect, but that still an odd driver of a phenomenon like this. Like Felix, the M’s GB% goes up with men on and with RISP, and you’d expect BABIP to go up along with it. They’ve given up more balls classified as hard hit, but the change is small and it isn’t matched by a change in LD%. It’s tough to know what – if anything – is going on. I’d love to ask potential GMs what they think is going on, just to hear how they think and what kind of information they want. More than that, though, I’d like Felix to get back to being Felix, and I want his defenders to assist him in doing that.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smith, RF
5: Morrison, 1B
6: Trumbo, DH
7: Miller, CF
8: Sucre, C
9: O’Malley, LF
SP: El Rey
Very Maddon-esque to bat Sucre 8th.
Cruz’s hamstring is still a bit sore, and Guti’s groin necessitated an early exit from yesterday’s game, but this would probably have been O’Malley’s game anyway with the righty Chavez on the hill.
Las Vegas beat up Tacoma 9-4 despite 3 hits from Chris Taylor. Mets prospects Dilson Herrera and Brandon Nimmo homered and Dillon Gee gave up 1 run in 7 strong innings. Mike Montgomery starts for the R’s today.
Chattanooga dominated the Jackson Generals 8-2. The Lookouts had 14 hits and drew 6 walks too, with 3 from Twins prospect Max Kepler. Misael Siverio wasn’t sharp. Dylan Unsworth starts today, so we’ll see a South African pitch to a German OF.
Bakersfield continued their recent run, blanking the San Jose Giants 2-0. Tyler Pike scattered 3 hits and a walk, while striking out 7 in his 7 IP. Pike also had 7 shutout innings in late July, but last night was his best outing of the year – his 7:1 K:BB ratio last night is loads better than the 4:3 from his earlier start. The Blaze got two unearned runs off Martin Agosta, which was nice, as Agosta fanned 9 in 6 innings and then turned things over to overpowering reliever Ray Black. Today, Ryan Yarbrough will try to match Pike as he shares the mound with Christian Jones, a lefty out of the University of Oregon who’s pitched out of the pen this year.
Eddie Campbell threw 7 solid innings of his own in Clinton’s 3-1 win over Beloit. The lefty didn’t fare well in the Cal League, but he’s been very sharp since his return to the MWL in August. Closer Ronald Dominguez is on a roll of his own, with 23 Ks and just 4 walks in his last 8 appearances, covering 18 1/3 IP. Lukas Schiraldi starts for the L-Kings today.
Vancouver destroyed Everett 12-5. Drew Jackson went 0-3 with a couple of walks. Today, Jackson was named the MVP of the NWL with a slash line of .362/.437/.452 – not bad from a cannon-armed SS. OF Corey Simpson is on an 0-13 skid right now with 9 Ks. He drew the dreaded platinum sombrero yesterday with 5Ks in 5 plate appearances. No word on today’s starter for Everett. The AquaSox finish off this series with Vancouver tomorrow, then head home to start their playoff series with Tri-City on Monday – the series begins in Everett. If you’re in the area, go.
Game 135, Mariners at Athletics
Edgar Olmos vs. Aaron Brooks, 7:05pm
The two huge disappointments of the AL West collide attempt to make small talk and avoid eye contact as the M’s head to Oakland. If you told someone in March that Olmos and Brooks would meet as starters in a September game, they’d have 1) thought you were crazy and 2) that the M’s and A’s seasons were worse than pretty much any “worst case scenario” imagined by the projection systems. Both may be true, but #2 is *definitely* true.
Brooks began the year in the Kansas City system. He’d made his MLB debut in 2014, but it was a harrowing ordeal: Brooks gave up 13 runs in less than 3 IP. His first start lasted 2/3 of an inning, and he gave up 7 runs despite facing only 11 batters. He got further opportunities to pitch in KC this spring thanks to the wave of injuries that hit the Royals, but seemed destined for the bullpen, particularly after his last appearance – in long relief against Boston – went poorly. Instead, he was added to the package headed to Oakland in exchange for Ben Zobrist, and after making a couple a starts for Nashville, he was back in a big league rotation on August 1st.
Since then, the righty’s made 4 starts, 3 of which were quality starts. He’s always shown very good control; he’s never had a minor league season with a BB/9 over 2. Without a ton of velocity or top-shelf stuff, he’s unlikely ever to miss enough bats to give himself a big margin of error. The control helps, but they can’t cover for a lack of outs, and it’s a general inability to miss bat barrels that led most observers to assume he’d become a non-closing reliever. Even in the minors, he gave up too may hits and too many HRs; with a rising four-seam fastball, his GB% was always low, and that further eroded his cushion.
Still, the A’s have turned worse raw material into annoyingly effective players. Since arriving in Oakland, Brooks is throwing more of his sinker -a pitch he didn’t throw much at all with the Royals. His best pitch looks to be his change-up, an 83mph offering with very good sink. He’s traditionally used a slider against right-handers, but he’s also got a curve. Thus far, Brooks has fared much better against lefties than righties, thanks primarily to his change: lefties have come up empty on about 1/2 of their swings on the change (it should go without saying, but the sample sizes here are miniscule). Over time, it’ll be interesting to see if Brooks is able to make the necessary adjustments to his sinker and slider to help him be more effective against righties, or if lefties will begin to adjust to his change. For guys like this, it’s a critical one: if the former, he’ll be a decent #5 starter in the bigs. If the latter, he’ll really get to know the cities of the PCL.
Edgar Olmos is still rather odd, as he looks to have good or at the very least *intriguing* stuff, but he couldn’t miss a bit if it was left on a chair in the batters box. His four-seam and sinker have all sorts of sink and run, and his curve must have impressive spin – and they’re put in play routinely. His change-up is ok too, and it’s what’s allowing him to get these spot-starts, but it’s not helping get strikeouts. His arsenal is notable in that it induces grounders, and that keeps the ball in the park. Olmos still hasn’t given up a HR this year, and if I knew that he had some of the old Chris Young magic in him, I’d be less concerned about the lack of whiffs.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Gutierrez, LF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Smith, RF
6: Trumbo, DH
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Miller, CF
9: Hicks, C
SP: Olmos
Kiley McDaniel runs through some of the candidates for the M’s GM position (and others) here – it’s worth your time. McDaniel mentions Jerry Dipoto, who apparently lost out to Zduriencik back in 2008, but we now know he’ll be interviewed. The “almost GM” group that McDaniel discusses seems the most intriguing to me and many others (and I think Kim Ng could fit in that group), but Kevin Mather’s public statements would seem to rule them out. I can see a David Forst or John Coppolella arguing that they’ve been doing many GM-level functions already, so that the worry about on-the-job learning is misplaced, but we’ll see. A lot of this depends on what Mather and M’s ownership see as Zduriencik’s biggest flaws – was it evaluation/player development, or did they see his inexperience at the GM level as a key factor that fed in to the various subsidiary disappointments?
A day after losing James Paxton to a finger injury, the M’s lost to Salt Lake 4-2. Jabari Blash was out for the 2nd straight game with a sore knee, but it sounds like he can play in the year’s final series in Las Vegas. Tonight, the Rainiers’ Adrian Sampson takes on Dillon Gee, who was having a so-so year in the Mets’ rotation before being supplanted by Noah Syndergaard and, for a time, Steven Matz.
Jackson beat Chattanooga 5-2 thanks to a strong start from Stephen Landazuri and another dominant outing by reliever Paul Fry. Fry got a 4-out save with all 4 coming via the strikeout, giving him 70 Ks in 55 AA innings. Today, Misael Siverio takes on David Hurlbut of the Lookouts, a sinkerballing veteran who’s been quite effective in the low minors and reasonably solid in AA despite being a 28th-round pick. The Twins may not get enough credit for the job their player development group does; the Lookouts best player is German OF Max Kepler, who’s having his best season as a pro, Jose Berrios earned a promotion to AAA, and obviously Miguel Sano’s done pretty well.
Bakersfield beat Lancaster 6-2 behind HRs from OFs Tyler O’Neill and Austin Wilson. Dan Altavilla pitched pretty well for 5 innings, and the bullpen locked it down behind him. Closer Emilio Pagan has handled the Cal League quite well – he’s maintained or improved most of his peripheral stats over last year despite moving from the pitcher-friendly Midwest League to the pitcher-soul-destroying California League. Tyler Pike starts today against Martin Agosta of San Jose, a player the Blaze are pretty familiar with by now – this will be his 7th appearance against them. He’s made 3 starts recently against the Blaze, and had 3 relief appearances earlier in the season.
Clinton’s latest humiliation was an 11-3 drubbing at the hands of Beloit. Eddie Campbell, who’s actually been quite good recently, starts for the L-Kings today.
Spokane beat Everett 4-1, handing Luiz Gohara his 3rd consecutive loss. It’s hard to remember that he started the year with 3 solid starts- he didn’t surrender an earned run in any of them. After that, it’s been ugly. Yesterday, he walked 6 and gave up 3 runs in 3 2/3 IP. Today, Everett heads to Vancouver to take on the Canadians.
Gmae 134, Mariners at Astros
Taijuan Walker vs. Scott Kazmir, 5:10pm
Among the many fascinating – and not always encouraging – stats about Tai Walker’s 2015, this is one of the most striking: With no one on, Walker’s giving up a .603 OPS and has posted a HR% of 2.2%. With men on base, Walker’s giving up a .912 OPS and has a HR% of 5.5%. It’s stunning, sure, but it’s also tough to know what to do with it. He’s given up 22 HRs on the year, and now we’re looking at divvying those up. Still, Walker’s been much better than league average with no one on and he’s been much, much worse than league average once someone’s on base. There are a number of possible reasons for this, but it can’t be that he struggles from the stretch…he now throws from the stretch at all times, so that can’t be it. It could have something to do with release point variance if he’s got even a tiny bit of his head focused on a runner – his splits with a runner on 1st are the worst of all, but we’re now looking at splits of splits. It could have something to do with a change in pitch mix/approach with runners on. He throws more splitters with men on base, but he seems to have given up more solo shots on splitters.
It’s possible that we can find some physical difference by scanning the video or pitch fx – maybe there’s a subtle ‘tell’ that he has with men on. But as this great Adam Sobsey piece about Jake Arrieta shows, it’s just as likely that the difference is purely a mental one. Seriously, go read that and think about Walker and has on-again/off-again struggles with big innings and see if it doesn’t sound familiar. I don’t know why Walker can look so dominant and then struggle after a walk or HBP, but I want to feel more confident that the M’s can help him improve. Going way back to the beginning of the Zduriencik era, we all had what now seem like insanely optimistic views of the changes in approach that he was bringing in throughout the system. A new strength/conditioning approach based on sport-specific exercises would revolutionize training. Performance coaches to work on just the kind of mental adjustments that made such a difference for Arrieta would unlock potential in stalled-out prospects, etc. None of it appears to have made a difference at all, or at least, not a positive difference. And that clearly has an impact on how I’ll react when the new crew touts their specialized movement coaches or nutritional advisors. But that doesn’t mean this stuff doesn’t matter, it just means it’s really hard to know what you’re buying.
Scott Kazmir’s made some changes of his own since moving over from Oakland in late July. He’s throwing more sliders now to lefties, but given his historical splits, it shouldn’t be a huge surprise that he tends to see a lot more righties. There, the changes are a bit harder to see, though he’s throwing a few less change-ups and a couple more curves. His cutter’s something of an interesting pitch, in that it’s so slider-like but without a ton of vertical movement. He throws a proper slider as well that has similar horizontal movement but much more drop. Despite the cutter’s lack of drop, it’s been an incredibly good ground ball pitch. That’s probably a good thing, as his fastball (four-seam and sinker) have a ton of vertical rise, and aren’t hit on the ground that much. The cutter combines contact (batters put in play a lot) with contact-type (batters hit it into the ground a lot), which is handy when you’re in a double-play situation. With men on 1st, Kazmir’s OPS-against this year is .479, which compares rather favorably to Walker’s 1.043.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Trumbo, 1B
7: Romero, RF
8: Sucre, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: Walker
Welcome to the Mariners, Shawn O’Malley. The switch-hitting O’Malley hasn’t played CF in the majors before, but got a few games in LF for the Angels last year. The Richland, WA native missed nearly all of July with an injury, and after an adjustment period, finished August strong, racking up 20 total based in his last 5 games. He spent most of the year at 2B, but he did play 11 games in CF for the Rainiers.
The R’s lost in Salt Lake 10-1, despite a reasonably strong start from lefty Tyler Olson. The bullpen (Beimel, Sam Gaviglio and newcomer Matt Anderson) gave up 8 runs in 3 IP. Today, the Rainiers send James Paxton out for his next rehab start. He’ll face Nick Tropeano. Joining the R’s yet again will be 1B Jesus Montero, who is one of the rare players to get sent down AFTER rosters expand. Lloyd McClendon said they wanted to get him more ABs, and that’s harder now with Mark Trumbo actually hitting, but it’s still got to sting for Montero.
Jackson’s off today, but they finished off theirs series with Pensacola with an 8-7 win. SS Tyler Smith reacted to being named to the AFL with a 4-5 night. Edwin Diaz got the win, but it was a struggle – his 6:0 K:BB ratio in 5 IP was great, but the 9 hits and 6 runs were less great. Another AFL selectee, Paul Fry, struck out 3 but had some uncharacteristic wildness, walking 2, in the 9th.
Bakersfield shut out Lancaster 2-0 behind 7 strong innings from Brett Ash. The righty struck out 5, and then Emilio Pagan struck out the side in the 9th for a classy save. Scott DeCecco starts tonight.
Clinton thought about blowing it, but eked out a 10-9 decision over Wisconsin. The TimberRattlers scored 2 in the 9th off of Ronald Dominguez, but he got the final out. Zack Littell has been scuffling of late, and this was perhaps his worst start, going 4 IP and giving up 7 runs. It’s been a solid season overall for the 19 year old, who may be tiring given he pitched only 70 innings last season. Tyler Herb leads Clinton as they welcome Beloit tonight.
Everett briefly held a 6-1 lead over Spokane, but couldn’t hold it – they lost 7-6 on a walkoff double in the 10th. Andrew Moore started and threw 3 scoreless, but he doubled his walk total on the year. He’s now given up 2, against 43 strikeouts. Ryan Uhl had 2 hits including a double. Enyel de los Santos takes the mound for the AquaSox tonight in Spokane.
Game 133, Mariners at Astros
Roenis Elias vs. Scott Feldman, 5:10pm
Quick one today, as Feldman’s a well-known quantity and because there’ve been so many moves, they deserve a separate post.
To refresh your memory, Feldman’s a cutter/sinker guy with a curve as his breaking ball. He made his debut back in 2005, and joined the Rangers rotation in 2008. His sinker and cutter both generate grounders, which helped him survive in Arlington. His cutter’s become a real weapon against left-handed bats, and he’s somewhat famously posted reverse platoon splits for years as a result. To be fair, though, it’s an odd kind of weapon: Feldman doesn’t get more whiffs or strikeouts or out-of-zone swings than most pitchers. He’s below average in each of those metrics. Instead, he’s been very successful at keeping left-handers in the ballpark. That sounds like something of a fluky stat to build your value around (not that this would’ve been a conscious process), but he’s been doing it so long, it stops looking like luck. He’s not an extreme GB guy, and thus he’s not an extreme HR-suppressor like Dallas Keuchel (who, of course, gave up a HR yesterday), but it’s enough that Feldman can be a perfectly solid #3-4 for years.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, DH
6: Smith, LF
7: Trumbo, 1B
8: Miller, CF
9: Hicks, C
SP: Elias
News: Justin Ruggiano was traded for cash considerations to the LA Dodgers, whose OF is banged up at the moment. As the deal went down before midnight, Ruggiano has playoff eligibility for LA.
The M’s announced their first round of call-ups today: Stefen Romero, Jose Ramirez, Tony Zych and Shawn O’Malley are all joining the team in Houston. No James Jones or Mike Zunino yet. Zunino has to wait 10 days, and James Jones isn’t quite 100% after his injury – they figure to be up when Tacoma’s season ends in less than a week. Ramon Flores would’ve been in this group, but he suffered a gruesome compound fracture of his ankle in a game a few days ago.
In addition, the M’s announced their Arizona Fall League selections today. The group is headlined by James Paxton, who needs innings after his injury. Also heading south will by RP Paul Fry, RP David Rollins, and RP Tony Zych, IF DJ Peterson and SS Tyler Smith, and OF Tyler O’Neill. Peterson’s the big prospect name, and Tyler O’Neill is coming off an eye-opening season, but I’m interested to see how Paul Fry fares. As an unheralded pick, Fry, a lefty reliever, certainly has the most eye-popping 2015 stats.
Game 132, Mariners at Astros
Vidal Nuno vs. Dallas Keuchel, 5:10pm
Let’s be honest : the M’s arrive in Houston without much to play for. Now it’s the Astros turn to feel the pressure of playoff expectations, as crazy as that would’ve sounded 6 months ago. Crazier still, their primary opponent is suddenly the Texas Rangers, as the Angels ill-timed slide has pushed them back to .500 on the year. The M’s are a game above .500 in August, and they’ve made some improvements in the 2nd half of the season, but they simply haven’t been able to make a sustained run, the kind of surge that pretty much every team in the league has made at one time or another…even the Phillies, somehow.
A good chunk of the blame for that has to fall on the M’s black holes. As Jeff Sullivan wrote in his post-mortem of the Jack Z years, the M’s have had insanely low production from various line-up spots for years. The M’s went from Jack Wilson to Brendan Ryan, with a brief stop in Ronny Cedeno purgatory. The M’s have employed Rob Johnson, Adam Moore, Miguel Olivo and Mike Zunino at C, and received a total of more than -106 batting runs for their trouble. At 1B, they’ve gone from Casey Kotchman’s worst year to the Justin Smoak slow fade to Logan Morrison’s struggles. As we’ve talked about, other teams have been successful with a black hole in their line-up, but the M’s couldn’t get past the event horizon of theirs, and were crushed by them. Futility became a force of nature.
The Astros are of course no stranger to positional black holes. Matt Dominguez at 3B, Humberto Quintero at C, Brett Wallace at 1B, etc. There’s a reason the recent Astros teams were some of the worst in a decade. But a big part of why their rebuild has gone faster than anyone suspected is that they’ve avoided them this year. They’re not average everywhere – their DH production has been awful, for example – but they’ve avoided the kinds of abysmal performances that the M’s have fallen victim to yet again.
But as tonight’s starter proves, they’re not simply a team full of average guys playing over their heads. Dallas Keuchel’s status in the top tier of starting pitchers seemed far fetched a year ago, and even early this year, many of us waited for regression to pull Keuchel and his 88mph sinker back to earth. The low K rate, the freakish GB% and what looked like luck on line drives and fly balls – they produced some spectacular results in 2014, but you can’t rely on that stuff for your career. Can you? In nearly every facet of his game, Keuchel has battled regression and won. His GB% is still 2nd in baseball, just where it was last year. And last year’s seemingly impossible .438 OPS-against on ground balls? Well, it’s now .379. Batters are slugging below .200 on grounders this year, and he’s coupled that with better production when batters DO elevate the ball – batters are SLUGGING .286 on FLY balls. Years ago, we’d chalk this up to some kind of luck or to brilliant defenders, but Keuchel is helping change everyone’s idea of what pitchers can control. And while he’s doing all of that, his plain old FIP stats are better. He’s now got an above-average K rate, and he’s pushed his walk rate below 2/9IP. With a FIP and xFIP aroudn 2.70, Keuchel is clearly an elite starter no matter what stats you look at.
That said, the M’s aren’t 9 games below .500 because they’re hopeless against ace-level starters. The M’s beat Keuchel this year back in June, and they are 7-5 in games started by pitchers in the top 20 in pitching WAR this year. We’ll leave aside what it says about the M’s facing mediocre starters and just extract the part that gives us a modicum of hope going into today’s game.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Trumbo, 1B
7: Montero, DH
8: Miller, CF
9: Sucre, C
SP: Nuno
Austin Jackson was penciled into the line-up in the lead-off spot, but that won’t be happening, as the M’s just traded him to the Cubs for a international bonus pool slot and a PTBNL. Given the Cubs injuries in the OF, it makes sense for them, and they obviously didn’t pay a whole lot. Brad Miller is officially a CF for a while. Justin Ruggiano’s hurting a bit in Tacoma, but he could see some time soon, as could James Jones, recently returned from his own injury rehab. Jackson’s tenure in Seattle probably won’t be remembered fondly; Seattle bet on regression and got age-related decline. It happens.
The Rainiers completed their home schedule yesterday, battling the rain and the Nashville Sounds to a draw. The crowd must’ve gotten wet, but the R’s got both games of the doubleheader in, and split it at a game apiece. The Rainiers got a walk-off 6-5 win in Game 1, before losing the nightcap 8-4 despite two more HRs from Jabari Blash. The R’s head down to Salt Lake tonight, with Mike Montgomery trying to right the ship against the Bees’ Drew Rucinsky.
Jackson beat Pensacola 8-2 behind a 2-HR game from 2B Tyler Bortnick and Dylan Unsworth’s best pitching performance of the year. The South African hurler went 6 scoreless, striking out 5, while Bortnick was named the SL Player of the Week after a 5-hit game earlier in the week set the stage for his 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 RBI game yesterday. Jimmy Gilheeney starts for Jackson today against Pensacola’s Cody Reed, one of the prospects Cincinnati acquired from Kansas City in the Johnny Cueto deal. The lefty has plus velo, and has struck out 43 in 35+ innings in the Southern League.
Bakersfield’s bullpen couldn’t stop the High Desert Mavericks, resulting in a 7-3 loss. Ryan Yarbrough was so-so, tossing 4 innings and giving up 3 runs (1 earned) while striking out 5. But while HD kept adding on, the Blaze couldn’t figure out the Mavs bullpen. Tyler O’Neill had 2 doubles and Kyle Petty homered for Bakersfield. The Blaze are off today.
Clinton’s Eddie Campbell pitched well, and the L-Kings took a 3-2 lead into the 8th, but Wisconsin scored 4 in the inning off of two Clinton relievers. Campbell went 7 IP, giving up 2 runs and striking out 6 (to just one walk). Lukas Schiraldi takes the mound for Clinton tonight.
Everett beat Tri-City 5-4, as the Everett bullpen came up big after Jake Brentz was chased in the 2nd without recording an out. Joe Pistorese finished things off with a rare 3 1/3 IP save; he gave up 0 runs and 0 hits while striking out 3. As gaudy as his K:BB ratio is (46:7), his hits-allowed is noteworthy, too: he’s given up 28 in 42 1/3 IP. Yarbrough shot up the prospect ranking last year after his 53:4 K:BB ratio and 25 hits in 38 2/3 IP in Everett. Pistorese’s numbers aren’t quite in that league, but the fact that they’re close is noteworthy. Yarbrough was a budget-minded senior sign out of Old Dominion, while Pistorese was also a senior out of WSU, taken in the 17th round.
Game 131, Mariners at White Sox
Edgar Olmos vs. Jose Quintana, 11:10am
A day after catcher John Hicks made his MLB debut playing 3B, a position he’d never played as a pro, Edgar Olmos makes his first major league start. Obviously, this is a much more familiar role for Olmos than the hot corner was for Hicks, but it’s still something of an adjustment. Before this year, Olmos’ last start came in 2012. He made two spot starts for Tacoma this year when roster shuffles left them a starter short, including his longest outing of the year, a 5IP game against Sacramento right before he was called up.
Among the myriad things I couldn’t have imagined before the year began, the M’s letting a LOOGY get a spot start is perhaps one of the least painful. But it’s still pretty remarkable when you step back: Olmos was acquired from Florida when the Marlins waived him. He needed a 40 man spot, but the M’s had plenty of them, so it seemed like a worthwhile gamble, particularly given Olmos’ 94-95mph velocity. Upon arriving in M’s camp though, Olmos wasn’t close to 94-95, and he had to be shut down with a shoulder impingement. When the M’s needed a 40-man spot, they waived Olmos and the Rangers picked him up in late February. After throwing for a few days with Texas, the Rangers asked MLB to reverse the waiver claim, essentially claiming that Seattle had sent them defective goods. MLB agreed, and Olmos returned.* That he didn’t really have a role went without saying: he was, apparently, too hurt to waive.
Olmos stayed in extending spring training rehabbing his shoulder, and only joined Tacoma at the very end of May. In his first outing, he gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 1/3 of an inning. After that outing, he took some family leave when his wife gave birth. So it’s June, and Olmos had been hurt, ineffective and waived. On the plus side, he had a new baby. Whether it was fatherhood or just some rest, Olmos has been effective since his return. He had some platoon splits, but he was an effective reliever who seemed to keep the ball in the park – he hasn’t given up a HR in 2015. That’s kind of interesting, given that HR problems were a big part of the reason Florida waived him.
Whether it was because of his injury or just something the M’s worked on with him, Olmos’ fastball doesn’t look much like the one he threw for the Marlins. A few years ago, he threw 96 routinely, and the ball had a lot of horizontal run and essentially average vertical rise. Now, Olmos throws 93 with a bit less armside run, and extremely low vertical movement. At over 2 standard deviations below average, Olmos’ four-seamer acts like a sinker. His sinker, which he’s thrown to righties thus far, has even less rise and Mike Montgomery-levels of horizontal movement. While he always had decent ground ball rates, they’re higher now and he’s getting some infield pop-ups. More importantly, whatever change he’s made seems to have improved his…uh, change. Olmos was a fastball/slider guy with Florida, but in the M’s org he throws two fastballs, a curve and a change-up. The latter pitch has radically different movement now than it did before (of course, the “before” sample is a handful of pitches) – it now has sink and it’s something he can throw righties.
Olmos’ story’s a good one, and he’s solid depth for the M’s, but it’s not like all the changes have made him a great pitcher. He’s just not missing enough bats, and his GB% isn’t elite enough to make up for that. It’s a bit early to tell if he’s been HR-lucky, or if he’s put his real HR issues behind him, and the same goes for his platoon splits. He’s making this start because Mike Montgomery couldn’t stop his slide, and was banished to Tacoma today (Mayckol Guaipe is up). Still, this is quite a reward for someone I never thought we’d hear from again this spring.
Jose Quintana’s the unassuming lefty who’s been remarkably effective and consistent for the White Sox. Quintana throws a rising FB at 91-92, a good cutter at 90 and an occasional change, but his best pitch is his curve, a slurvy offering at 81. The combination of a straight, high fastball and a curve has helped Quintana avoid platoon split issues – his career xFIP is essentially identical to RHBs/LHBs. This year, his splits are a bit more prominent thanks to some minor HR issues to righties. He’s given up more HRs on his fastball, which is probably just bad luck, but it’s got to be a bit concerning for Chicago. Perhaps as a result, Quintana’s throwing more of his sinker than he ever has, but that hasn’t really helped against righties. In any event, Quintana’s still only given up 12 long balls on the year. Last year’s incredible HR/FB luck wasn’t going to last forever, but he’s still given up remarkably few HRs given his home park and neutral GB rates.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Trumbo, RF
8: Miller, SS
9: Hicks, C
SP: Olmos
Congratulations to Hicks on surviving 3B last night and making his first big league start.
Tacoma’s game with Nashville was postponed yesterday. That probably won’t shock anyone in Western Washington given yesterday’s storms. They’ll play 2 today, with Adrian Sampson starting game 1. It’s a split-admission game, so ticket-holders from yesterday’s game can use their tickets for game 2, which starts at 5:35, and those who had seats for today’s game – the last home game of the year – can use those for game 1, which starts at 1:35.
Jackson shut out Pensacola 4-0 behind 6 one-hit innings from Misael Siverio. Paul Fry K’d 2 in the 9th, and Jabari Henry homered for the Generals as well. Fry now has 106 Ks against just 19 walks in 76 1/3 IP. The lefty out of a Michigan CC has 53 Ks and 5 walks against left-handed bats. Dylan Unsworth starts today against Tim Adleman, a 24th round pick out of Georgetown who was cut by Baltimore and spent two years in independent ball before resurfacing with the Reds this year. He’s been shockingly effective this year, and though he’s 27, he may get a shot at AAA next year.
After a 2-1 game the day before, Bakersfield and High Desert played a good old fashioned Adelanto special last night, with Bakersfield outslugging the Mavericks 19-10. The hitting star was RF Austin Wilson, who’s had a terrible season but is showing some signs of life. Wilson went 6-7, with 3 doubles and a HR; he was 6 for his first 6 and had a shot at a 7th hit before grounding out in the 9th. Ryan Yarbrough starts today.
Burlington shut out Clinton 4-0, who are now 16-45 in the 2nd half and 46 games under .500. Eddie Campbell shares the mound with Wisconsin’s Kodi Medeiros, a 2014 1st rounder and one of the Brewers top prospects.
Tri-City beat Everett 9-3 despite Alex Jackson’s first 2-HR game. Luiz Gohara was shaky again, and reliever Jefferson Arias wasn’t much better. Jake Brentz starts for the AquaSox today.
* His return meant that the M’s had to make another roster move, but the day they needed to DFA someone, Ji-Man Choi broke his leg in a Cactus League game and got the news he was being outrighted while in the hospital.
Game 130, Mariners at White Sox
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Jeff Samardzija, 4:10pm
The M’s look for a series win tonight against Jeff Samardzija, one of the White Sox disappointments. Acquiring him from Oakland was one of a series of bold moves aimed at jump starting their rebuild and making a play for a wild card spot.
Instead, players like Samardzija have regressed right along with the Sox returning players like Jose Abreu. With the Royals running away with the division, even a great year from Shark may not have mattered, but his decline may be a concern as he hits free agency. Lefties have teed off on him this season, and his K%, GB% and HR% all went the wrong way. He still throws 95 with good control and flashes elite potential, but he hasn’t quite harnessed those tools yet.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Smith, LF
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Trumbo, DH
8: Miller, CF
9: Sucre, C
James Paxton’s 2nd rehab start was mediocre, as he gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks, but the bullpen and bats bailed him out. Jabari Blash’s HR led the way, and the R’s won 8-3. Adrian Sampson starts tonight.
Jackson’s anemic offense was back after their 11-run outburst the other day as Pensacola shut them down 7-1. Misael Siverio starts tonight in Jackson.
High Desert beat Bakersfield 2-1. Former 3B Ramon Morla pitched a scoreless inning for the Blaze and struck out 3 around a walk. Something to keep an eye on; I love ex-position player pitchers. Tyler Pike faces off against Reed Garrett in Adelanto.
Clinton shut out Burlington 4-0 with Tyler Herb going 5 IP for the win. The L-Kings had 10 base hits. Jarrett Brown takes the hill for Clinton tonight.
Everett beat Tri City 4-1 on a bullpen day with Rohn Pierce, Spencer Herrmann and Joey Strain all tossing multiple (effective) innings. Taylor Zeutenhorst homered for the AquaSox. Luiz Gohara makes the start tonight – one of his last in yet another disappointing season.
Game 129, Mariners at White Sox; Game 1 of the Post-GMZ Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. John Danks, 5:10pm
Zduriencik’s last action as GM was the long-overdue demotion of C Mike Zunino to AAA. Given rosters expand imminently, it seems he’ll be with Tacoma for about 72 hours or so. Replacing him on the roster is John Hicks, the M’s 4th round pick in 2011 out of Virginia. Hicks had a reputation as a good defender (he leads the PCL in CS%), and has moved up the chain steadily, albeit with wildly inconsistent offensive lines. He was great in the Cal League, then fell apart in AA. Repeating the level in 2014, he put up a 121 wRC+ in 200+ PAs, but struggled after a promotion to Tacoma. This year, which he’s spent platooning with Steve Baron, has been his worst as a pro. It is the first day of the Jeff Kingston era, and the Mariners starting catcher is officially Jesus Sucre. 2015 is a hell of a drug.
We just saw this matchup back in Seattle 5 days ago, with the M’s winning a slugfest, 8-6. The M’s torched Danks for 7 runs in 5 IP, but the White Sox fared well against Taijuan Walker as well. Jose Abreu’s HR highlighted the fact that Walker is having real problems with right-handers recently; his FIP vs. RHBs is 4.87, well over a run higher than his FIP vs. lefties. His fastball *should* be effective against RHBs, but hasn’t been, perhaps because his breaking stuff still isn’t quite ready for prime time.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Jackson, CF
7: Trumbo, DH
8: Morrison, 1B
9: Sucre, C
SP: Walker
With team president Kevin Mather signalling that he’s not interested in an inexperienced GM, interim guy Jeff Kingston’s in an awkward position (as is Lloyd McClendon, of course). Ownership/Mather may want a veto over personnel moves, as we saw when Frank Mattox was interim GM. What Kingston can do is really focus on figuring out what the M’s have in Hicks, Ramon Flores, Ketel Marte and the rest of the high-minors talent the M’s have. That’s tough, as getting a look at, say, Jabari Blash and Forrest Snow come September would mean 40-man roster changes. There are some spots the M’s could conceivably swap out, but they may be loathe to do so right now. Beyond that, I’d imagine his main job is figuring out what the heck’s going on with Jackson and Clinton, and where the player development strengths in the org really are. Zunino’s demotion may just be a way for him to work on things in a low-pressure environment, but there’s simply not enough time to get a lot of meaningful work in, whatever you think of Cory Snyder as a hitting instructor.
The Rainiers hit another 5 HRs last night in a big 12-5 win over the Nashville Sounds. The R’s lead the PCL in home runs, which is pretty amazing given how their home park stacks up with some of the launching pads in in the PCL. Forrest Snow was the beneficiary of all the run support, but he gave up 2 HRs of his own. He’s given up 22 HRs of his own, good for 2nd most in the PCL behind converted OF Jason Lane, who’s also pitched about 40 more innings. Something to work on going forward for the local product, who’s had a solid year despite the gopheritis. James Paxton makes rehab start #2 tonight against Nashville. Go see him if you’re in the area.
Jackson’s bats came alive yesterday in an 11-3 win over Montgomery. Jabari Blash and Guillermo Pimentel homered. Edwin Diaz pitched a solid 6 IP for the win. Stephen Landazuri starts tonight as Jackson opens a series with Pensacola
Visalia downed Bakersfield 4-1 behind a great pitching performance from Dormagen, Germany’s Markus Solbach. The lanky righty gave up an unearned run in 6 IP with 6 Ks and no walks. Scott DeCecco gave up 10 hits including 3 HRs in 6 IP for the loss. Bakersfield heads to Adelanto to face High Desert today; no word on their starter.
Burlington scored 2 in the 8th to beat Clinton 4-2. Zack Littell’s solid start (6 IP, 2R, 7Ks) was spoiled as the Lumberkings bats couldn’t do much. Clinton’s runs scored on a passed ball and a throwing error. Tyler Herb starts for the L-Kings tonight.
Everett beat Salem-Keizer 4-3 behind great outings from Enyel de los Santos and reliever Joe Pistorese. De los Santos went 7, yielding 2 runs, and then Pistorese tossed the final 1 1/3 with 3 Ks. Drew Jackson had 2 hits, including a double. Rohn Pierce gets the ball tonight for Everett.
The Jack Zduriencik Era is Over
December 18, 2009 at roughly 10:40am Pacific. The rumor that the M’s had swapped Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley of the Cubs had just been confirmed, and there were unconfirmed stories and quotes from unnamed sources floating around on the still-new platform of Twitter. One of those rumors, one that no one could actually source, was that the deal was a straight swap – despite somewhat unequal contracts and even more unequal 2008 stats, Zduriencik possibly rid himself of the entirety of Silva’s contract. Jon Heyman harshed our buzz and said the M’s were sending $6m to the Cubs, but that wasn’t until 10:45. About 48 hours before, Zduriencik pried Cliff Lee away from Philadelphia for a package headlined by Phillippe Aumont and JC Ramirez. He turned the M’s worst starter into a Cy Young favorite at a cost of a couple of decent prospects AND somehow come out with a league-average bat with the potential for a lot more. It still sounds impossible, even when you know exactly how bad everything went on and off the field. At 10:40am on 12/18/2009, I, and I suspect many other M’s fans, thought the only real worry the M’s had about their GM is that he might ascend to another plane of existence, or force MLB to make rule changes to restore competitive balance (“Jack, you’re not allowed to look directly into other GMs eyes anymore, because wheeeeennnn ok, MLB will allow the Mariners to begin each game with a 2 run lead.”).
For those who’d suffered through the previous GM’s tenure, or for those who came later, all of this optimism must seem pretty strange. We’re the fanbase that’s always waiting for the other shoe to drop, waiting for the next punch to land. There are fans who sincerely believe 2015 is the most disappointing season in M’s history, but I don’t think anyone who lived through 2010 dizzying fall could see 2015 as comparable. The M’s have had plenty of disappointment, even in their greatest years. But there was something about watching a team we believed in too much become the laughingstock of the league – from WS expectations to historically inept – that’s made it hard to invest too much in any M’s team that’s come after it. Let’s be clear: this is MY fault, OUR fault and not Jack’s. But while we all high fived and breathed a sigh of relief when Bavasi left, my feeling’s different now. The intensity of my fandom’s been permanently restricted; I simply can’t be the kind of fan I was at 10:40am, December 18th, 2009 anymore.
A big part of that might be age and life and the way 518 losses in 5.5 years rewires your brain to spare you some pain. But a part of it is that we fell too hard for the idea that the right executive is all you need. That a General Manager can remake an organization, from top to bottom, relatively quickly and have everything just work out. We see this all the time – Cardinals fans believe in their org, and Astros fans will tell you more than you wanted to know about their vaunted Process. But the more you look into them, the more you see just how extensive change needs to be. The Cards aren’t the Cards because of their GM, they’re where they are because of dozens or hundreds of people. A leader can be vital in creating and nurturing a culture that works for player development or pro scouting, but it takes an entire organization to make it work. As fans, we thought at one point that Zduriencik was a kind of cheat code – his blend of scouting acumen and willingness to listen to newfangled metrics would blend the best of old school and new and make the Cardinals look like the St. Louis Browns in short order. Instead, what we saw was a front office that seemed to be at war with itself. Instead of creating a culture, the GM created a growing list of enemies. Nearly every group – from Pro Scouting to Player Development was overhauled, and nothing much seemed to change.
Today, Ryan Divish tweeted out the two words that felt inevitable and overdue.
Zdurienick fired
— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) August 28, 2015
Kevin Mather released the kind of statement that always accompanies moves like this, and so the M’s search begins in earnest. The new guy (or gal) inherits a farm system in the bottom third in baseball, and with a very good but aging and expensive core. There are a number of strategies the new group could employ, from Astros-style teardown to using their new revenue to essentially buy their way out of rebuilding years. I’ll be a fan, and I look forward to writing about the differences between the new crew and the old one, but I think we’ll all going to look at the early moves – and feel differently about the early moves – than we did back in the heady days of 2008-2009. For now, Jeff Kington will lead the team, while Kevin Mather reviews his list of experienced candidates. Kingston won’t be the permanent GM, which recalls the days in the Bavasi-Zduriencik interregnum when ownership blocked a trade and the M’s couldn’t really begin to retool in earnest. The M’s and fans just have to get through a string of games that feel even more useless than most Septembers’. After that, we’ll try to feel optimistic again.
I’ll end with a stab at optimism: The M’s front office was incapable of building a team to reliably compete in the AL. The M’s realized this and made a change. Realistically, the M’s are further from their goal of competing in the medium term than they were before the year started, but even this helped clarify things and point a way forward. We knew before the year that the M’s had risks at the catcher spot, the bullpen and CF, and those risks have ended up sinking the season. The risks have turned into a shopping list or a player development challenge. Someone else will figure out what to do about these issues, and I’m excited to see what they do. I’ll just never be excited as I was in December of 2009 again.*
* Seriously, what does it say about the M’s that the best many of us have felt about the club in a decade or so came in the offseason?