2015 MLB Draft Preview with Chris Crawford
With the M’s seemingly stalled out around 8 or so back of the Astros, it’s tempting to focus a bit more than usual on the 2015 MLB draft. Fittingly, the draft starts today, and we can set aside the futility of the M’s offense for a while. But unlike recent seasons in which the need for an escape and a quick hit of hope have been just as necessary, the M’s don’t have a first round pick. Due to the new CBA and the M’s signing of Nelson Cruz, the M’s first pick will come at #60 overall. That’s not to say that this is hopeless – the M’s have found some solid values in that region, with Brad Miller and Taijuan Walker both supplemental selections (and, ok, both went off the board a dozen or more picks before #60). The M’s have done a decent job in the middle rounds as well, though perhaps they’ve struggled to get those guys over the “good in short-season” hump. Still, the draft is always a fascinating few days, as it’s a great case study in how teams respond to changing incentives.
As you know, and as we‘ve talked about in these posts in recent years, MLB radically changed the draft in 2012, bringing in bonus pools and imposing harsh penalties for teams who exceeded them. In subsequent years, we’ve seen teams first toe the line, then blow the similar pool system out of the water on the international side. But no one’s done it (yet) with the Rule 4 draft. That might speak to how teams see the players/scouting domestically versus internationally, and it may be because MLB didn’t understand how to set the penalties, but it’s another example of something I look for in the draft: organizational theory concepts playing out in real time.
But enough about that – we’re here to talk about pro baseball adding another cohort of the best amateur talents to its ranks. We’re here to wonder what a guy like Brendan Rogers can become in the bigs, and what Brady Aiken could do if he stays healthy. It’s been a down year for the class of 2015, made worse by injuries to several top pitching prospects. But that doesn’t mean it won’t add any impact players to the minors and, eventually, to big league rosters. Amateur scouting operates in conjunction with player development, and I think that interplay has never been as important – particularly with so many of the top arms coming off of injury. Yes, pitchers get hurt, but chipping away at pitcher attrition is worth millions in this sport, and the team that can get an Aiken or a Mike Matuella healthy and effective is a team that’s going to have a pretty big advantage.
As we have each year since 2012, we’ve discussed the draft with an actual draft expert – Chris Crawford of BaseballProspectus.com. Chris has been focused on the draft for years, and he really knows his stuff. I was going back over the previews we’ve done, and man, that’s a good track record. So go check out Crawford’s prospect work at BP, like this mock draft, perhaps, and dig in to this year’s draft preview:
So You Still Want Me to Write About the 2015 Draft
As friends of mine are more into the sport and I can be dragged into matters out of a desire to be conversational, I recently found myself paying some amount of attention to the NFL Draft. You can imagine my bewilderment at the whole affair. “So there is some consensus about where players will fall outside of the first round? And these players can be expected to fill major roles immediately? And you can still find major contributors in the NDFA pool? And various pundits have video clips available and are capable of giving practical commentary on each selection as it’s made all through the draft? What the crap is this?”
I understand some of the nuances that differentiate the sports. Baseball is more skill-based, football has an advantage of media given that all their players go through the NCAA system, etc, and yet, the mind still has some difficulty catching up. The phenomena of drafting this type of position in this round because it can be expected to yield this value is wholly foreign to me, even as I can justify pursuing certain molds of players earlier or later based off of what they might provide.
The Mariners gave up their first round pick because of the Nelson Cruz signing. Consequently, they won’t have their first selection until #60. If this were that other sport, I could speculate on what players might be available at #60, set that against organizational needs, and create a general program for what I expect out of the draft. If I tried that here, I would be hilariously wrong. The time investment required to mock an entire draft is unfathomable to me.
Furthermore, in baseball, there’s rationale for making a big affair of the first round. You can get your number one prospect that way! The Mariner’s last six first overall selections have been considered for #1 prospect internally at various points! Waiting until #60, you don’t have that same boon. That’s not to say that there haven’t been productive players taken by the organization after that. Edwin Diaz was selected 98th overall and is likely the farm’s best starting pitcher right now. Brad Miller wasn’t picked up until #62. Kyle Seager had to wait until #82 and there are probably some teams rather upset with themselves for squandering their chances at him.
As far as who the selection will be, baseball is generally not that predictable and I’ve seen return on heavy investment in the Mariners selecting a guy still on the board exactly once (that would be James Paxton). In lieu of going down the draft boards and looking at prospects in that window around #60, I’ll instead talk about what we’ve seen broadly from the Mariners draft board and what that might translate to.
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Game 57, Rays at Mariners
Mike Montgomery vs. Chris Archer, 1:10pm
How does a pitcher go from “great prospect” to legitimate MLB ace? It seems there are a few paths, from the Roy Halladay style early implosion, followed by regrouping, followed by dominance; to the King Felix style early dominance, then a long period where the results don’t match the royal stuff, followed by figuring stuff out and ascending to the throne; to the Corey Kluber/Carlos Carrasco thing, with a period of “possible 4th starter” and then suddenly, like flipping a switch, “Cy Young candidate.” Baseball itself is unpredictable, but the deeper you look it, the deeper the weirdness goes. What the hell got into Kluber, and can anyone replicate that? This year, we’ve seen Chris Archer ascend to the ranks of baseball’s elite, and he’s done a modified version of Felix’s path – Archer was never the elite prospect that Felix (or even Mike Montgomery) was, but he had impressive stuff – great velocity and the makings of a good slider. After a so-so debut in 2012, Archer’s been an above average starter since 2013, and that seemed like a clear success for the Rays development staff. In his mid-20s, Archer was a good #3 on a good rotation, and while the velo was impressive, I’m just not sure anyone saw a great deal more development in him.
After a great start to the year, Archer ran into some trouble in early May. He walked four in back-to-back games, and wasn’t as unhittable as he’d been through much of April. And then, suddenly, the switch flipped. We all remember what happened the last time he faced the M’s on May 25th: 8IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 12Ks. He followed that up with another dominant effort against the Angels – another 8 innings, 1R, 0BB and a career-best 15Ks. Sure, it’s early, and sure, small sample size and all of that. But Archer’s FIP is 3rd best in baseball, and his command seems to be improving. You don’t luck your way into a 15K, no walk game, and looking at the list of players who’ve had games like that shows Archer is in some illustrious company and..wait, what? How did Sterling Hitchcock get into this club?
Archer was originally drafted by the Indians in 2006, and was included as part of the deal that sent Mark DeRosa from the Cubs to Cleveland. At the time, he was essentially a lottery ticket – great arm, but couldn’t find the plate at all, and thus a guy who struggled with his consistency. With the Cubs, the raw runs-allowed results were much improved, but the walk rate was still pretty ugly. Then, in 2011, he was traded again, this time as a secondary part of the deal that sent Matt Garza to Chicago. That deal netted Tampa several starters. In addition to Archer, they got Brandon Guyer, who’s starting today, as well as Sam Fuld and C Robinson Chirinos. But the big piece in that deal wasn’t Archer, it was SS Hak-Ju Lee, who would be ranked as baseball’s 44th best prospect in 2012. Archer was way down at #89. Incidentally, Mike Montgomery was way up at #23 back then.
So, for Archer to improve his command to the point where he could be a solid #3, or #2 if everything was going right, was something of an upset and an impressive transformation in its own right. From there, a few things seem to have changed. First, he ditched the sinker that had been his most-used fastball in 2014. Now, like most of his teammates, he’s sticking with a hard 4-seamer with 10+” of rise. Then, he’s tweaked his slider – a pitch he throws a *ton* of to righties and lefties alike. It’s successful against lefties/righties in part because it has so much drop. It moves horizontally a bit, but it’s the drop – about a foot lower than his FB – that helps explain Archer’s lack of platoon splits. This year, he’s added about 1-2mph on the pitch; it’s not a cutter-ish 89mph on average. That’s sacrificed a bit of that vertical drop, but it’s made it harder to hit. His whiff rate on the slider is over 40%, and he can throw it in the zone at will. We talked about the splitter’s effectiveness at generating out-of-zone swings, but Archer demonstrates another way to get to the same place: with splitter-ish drop and great command, batters swing at over 53% of his sliders (vs. about 40% of his fastballs), and still come up empty all the time. As with the splitter, when they DO make contact, a ground ball’s the most likely outcome, and thus Archer has a better-than-50% GB rate despite a fastball that looks like Chris Tillman’s.
One potential red flag, and something Eno Sarris mentioned here, is that Archer throws the slider a lot. I mean, a *lot*. Only Tyson Ross has thrown it more often this year, and a look back at high-slider usage hurlers in recent years shows a hell of a lot of injured pitchers. Of course, literally any list of pitchers will include plenty of injured pitchers – it’s what pitchers *do*. The list also includes Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw, so it may be worth the risk…if sliders actually are more of a risk than any other type of pitch.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, LF
3: Cruz, RF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Trumbo, DH
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Miller, SS
8: Bloomquist, 2B
9: Sucre, C
SP: Montgomery
Cano gets a day off today, with Bloomquist replacing him at 2B.
Danny Farquhar makes his 2nd start for Tacoma today, opposite Nik Turley of Sacramento. [EDIT – as reader Jake points out, Farquhar pitched 2 IP in last night’s game, so perhaps that’s another experiment that the M’s have quietly abandoned. Anyway, Justin Germano is the actual starter of today’s game, no matter what MiLB.com says. Curto has the real scoop.] The RiverCats beat Tacoma 4-2, scoring all four of their runs in the 6th. Franklin Gutierrez homered off of Jake Peavy to account for the Rainiers 2 runs. Gutierrez now has an OBP of .417, and it is still a cosmic injustice that he can’t stay healthy.
Chattanooga topped Jackson 4-1, despite a solid start from Edwin Diaz. Scott DeCecco starts today against Twins prospect/2010 first-rounder Alex Wimmers.
Visalia and Bakersfield went to extras yet again, with Visalia pushing the winning run across in the 13th last night. The Blaze tied it at 2 in the bottom of the 9th on a Guillermo Pimentel HR, but Visalia’s Fidel Pena hit a solo HR in the 13th to win it. Bakersfield’s best performer was reliever Paul Fry, who threw 3 scoreless innings, giving up 1 hit, no walks and 8 strikeouts. Eddie Campbell takes the mound for Bakersfield against Anthony Banda, a D-Backs prospect who came to the Arizona org as part of the Gerardo Parra trade.
Clinton lost to Bowling Green 4-2. Zack Littell got the loss for the Lumberkings, despite striking out 10 (against no walks) in 6 IP. Today’s pitching match-up features Jefferson Medina of Clinton opposite what-a-name righty Hyrum Formo. That’s… that’s just outstanding.
Game 56, Rays at Mariners
King Felix vs. Alex Colome, 7:10pm
Happy Felix Day. We’ve got to stop celebrating Felix Day during losing streaks. Everyone loves Felix Day, and the weather’s just about perfect, but it’s hard to get in the celebratory mindset when the club looks as anemic as ever and has lost seven straight.
Alex Colome remains the over-the-top, rising-four-seam hurler he was when the M’s faced him a week or two ago. In his one start in between, the Angels knocked 3 HRs off of him – that tends to be the trade off with high, rising fastballs – more whiffs, hopefully a lower BABIP due to fly balls and more infield pop-ups, but more HRs and extra-base hits. Last year, he had the low BABIP, some pop-ups but no whiffs. This season (and small sample warnings apply on all of this), he’s missing more bats, getting elevated contact, but his BABIP’s terrible AND he’s giving up HRs. This is as winnable a game as at gets for a team like the M’s with plenty of holes. Take advantage.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Cano, 2B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Trumbo, DH
6: Smith, LF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Bloomquist, SS
9: Zunino, C
SP: FELIX HERNANDEZ
If you’d like to look forward to the next good M’s team, the MLB draft starts on Monday. As we’ve done in previous years, we’ll talk about the draft, the M’s, and draft eligible players from the Northwest with Chris Crawford of Baseball Prospectus. Look for that on Monday.
Pat Venditte did arrive in Boston in time to suit up and play, and he threw two scoreless innings, but the debut of the switch-pitcher was overshadowed by a scary incident in which a fan had to be rushed to the hospital after a chunk of Brett Lawrie’s shattered bat hit her face. Her injuries were described as life-threatening.
Tacoma staged a big comeback, but couldn’t get past New Orleans, who scored 4 runs in the first off Tyler Olson. Jesus Montero and Chris Taylor each had 2 hits. Stephen Landazuri starts tonight in Sacramento against veteran righty Jake Peavy, working his way back to San Francisco.
Jackson lost to Mississippi 4-3 in 12 innings. James Gilheeney had a solid start of 5 2/3 IP and Dario Pizzano homered for the Generals in a losing effort. Today, Edwin Diaz is putting together his best outing in AA. Through 7 IP, he’s given up 2 runs and K’d 5.
Visalia shut out Bakersfield yesterday 4-0. Tyler Pike went just 2 IP and gave up all 4 runs. Visalia’s John Omahen went 8 scoreless for the Rawhide. Brett Ash starts tonight for the Blaze.
Clinton was on the wrong side of a 17-7 blowout against Dayton. Starter Lukas Schiraldi couldn’t get out of the 4th, and gave up 8 runs. Kristian Brito, the L-Kings 1B, homered. Clinton’s hosting Bowling Green today behind Zack Littell.
Game 55, Rays at Mariners
JA Happ vs. Jake Odorizzi, 7:10pm
Man, this is getting pretty tiring. The M’s are again creeping up to the edge here. No one’s mathematically eliminated in early June, but the M’s playoff odds – the ones that are *still* giving them credit for their lovely preseason projections – have the M’s odds down at 30% and dropping fast. The M’s are behind a boatload of teams, and the Astros have held off regression long enough to give themselves quite a cushion if it comes. The Angels aren’t terrible, and even the RANGERS aren’t terrible. Even worse, Minnesota’s gotten off to such a strong start that they can remain in the wildcard chase for months. The Central’s strong start means that the wildcard bar may be higher than we thought. This is the context into which Jack Z dropped the Mark Trumbo trade, and, I think, part of the reason it hasn’t been well received. Will Mark Trumbo make the M’s into what the projections thought they were? No, not by himself he won’t. But if the standard of a trade is whether it makes a disappointing, flawed team into a contender (like they were supposed to be), then essentially no trades can be judged “good.” The M’s got some MLB talent and gave up less-good MLB talent plus some minor league lotto tickets. The M’s may still lose, but hey, an upgrade *somewhere.*
One of the side benefits of bringing in Trumbo is that it gives the M’s another righty bat, and one that they’ll actually use when appropriate. Like, for example, tonight. As I mentioned the last time the M’s faced Jake Odorizzi, they need to get their lefties in the line-up. A guy like Erasmo whose change is better than his breaking stuff can run even splits. James Shields’ career splits are essentially even too for the same reason. Jake Odorizzi seems to be taking that a step further. Obviously, it’s too early to really know, because he’s only been a splitter hurler for 1 year and a few months. But in that time, his splits are quite remarkable. His K rate is driven almost exclusively by striking out lefties. This year, his K:BB ratio to lefties is over 7. To righties? Just 2.33. All 5 of his HRs this year have been to righties, and righties have faced him *less* often than lefties. Last year, the picture wasn’t as extreme, but it was fairly close. His FIP to lefties in 2014 was 3.15. To righties, it was 4.46. The M’s *need* to have righties in the line-up. They had 4 in the line-up back on May 25th. Let’s see how they do tonight:
1: Morrison, 1B
2: Cano, 2B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Trumbo, DH
6: Smith, LF
7: Miller, SS
8: Zunino, C
9: Ackley, CF
SP: Happ
Damn it.
In other baseball news today, the Athletics have brought up SHP Pat Venditte to the big leagues. He’ll be flying into Boston to join the team just before gametime, so it’s not clear if he’ll pitch tonight, but when he does, he’ll be that rarest of breeds, the switch pitcher (hence the “SHP” tag that the A’s used in the press release). Venditte was a Yankee farmhand for many years, and despite some solid numbers, never made the bigs. With the A’s bullpen still in freefall – they just outrighted Dan Otero – they finally called up the still-effective Venditte. Intra-divisional rivalries be damned, I’m rooting for Venditte and can’t wait to see him pitch.
This story out of Anaheim is pretty crazy. Their VP for ticket sales essentially says on the record that they’re perfectly happy with declining ticket sales, because the attendance they DO have is trending wealthier, and thus the per-capita revenue per fan makes up for lost ticket sales. The Angels attendance really has dropped, but it appears that doesn’t bother the club, because poor people don’t buy as many souvenirs. I think many people have made the perfectly valid point that many, many teams probably *feel* the same way, but the cavalier way Robert Alvarado talked about this on the record is kind of breathtaking.
The Rainiers beat the New Orleans Zephyrs by a score of 6-1 last night, getting another strong start from Forrest Snow, and 2 hits (including a HR) from Shawn O’Malley. Tyler Olson moves back into the starting role he had last year in AA, and he’ll get the start tonight in the last game of the Rainiers’ homestand. Gorgeous night for baseball if you’re in the area – gametime’s 7:05.
The Jackson Generals were held hitless for 8 innings last night by the ruthlessly efficient Jake Brigham of Mississippi. Dan Paolini led off the 9th with a double and eventually came around to score a meaningless run in the 8-1 loss, but Brigham finised the CG with just 96 pitches, striking out 10 and walking none. Jimmy Gilheeney starts tonight for Jackson against Eastern Washington native and Oregon State product Jorge Reyes, who’s been great in relief, but is making just his 2nd start on the year. He reached AAA a few years back in the Padres org, but was traded to Atlanta last June.
Bakersfield beat Visalia 5-2, with Dan Altavilla throwing 7 strong innings (9 Ks) for the win. Only a solo HR by one-time M’s draftee Kevin Cron marred his line. Lefty-hitting 2B/SS Nelson Ward had another 2 hits for Bakersfield, and the Georgia product is 4-7 in two games with the Blaze, including a HR and 2 doubles. Tyler Pike takes the hill tonight for Bakersfield.
Clinton lost to Dayton 4-2, who scored 3 runs late to win it. Both starters, Pat Peterson for the L-Kings and Wyatt Strahan for the Dragons, pitched well, but Dayton won the bullpen battle. Lukas Schiraldi starts tonight for the Lumberkings, while Dayton sends up Junior Morillo, who’ll make his first appearance of the year after making just one all of last year.
Game 54, Rays at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Erasmo Ramirez, 7:10pm
Old friend Erasmo Ramirez returns to Seattle tonight to take on one of the guys who replaced him in the Seattle rotation. Ramirez never really had a chance to crack the M’s in 2015, but that’s because he was never able to capitalize on a brilliant debut year in 2012. In 59 innings that year (and 8 starts), he wasn’t terribly consistent, but his change-up proved to be a plus offering, and his velocity was a better-than-advertised 94. For whatever reason, things fell apart quickly after that. He had some minor injuries, but he had them in 2012 as well. He became incredibly hittable, and hemorrhaged runs all of the sudden, in part because his breaking stuff never really improved.
More than that, though, he had – and has – two big problems. First, Erasmo’s always been awful with men on base. It’s the kind of problem that managers and others tend to psychologize, arguing it’s the product of a weak mind that can’t deal with pressure. I have no idea if that’s true, though I’m suspicious of it. Instead, it could be the result of issues pitching out of the stretch. Whatever the reason, though, Erasmo has allowed a slash line of .235/.310/.368 in his career with the bases empty. With anyone on, that rises to .279/.346/.467, and remember he’s spent most of his career in Seattle and the AL West. A number of pitchers tend to nibble a bit more with men on – maybe their walk rate will rise, but they give up fewer HRs. With Erasmo, essentially everything goes to pot. His HR rate is much *worse* with men on, AND his walk rate goes up, AND his K rate drops a bit. Even his GB rate drops markedly when there are men on, which is pretty important given that Erasmo’s given up almost nothing on the ground. His career OPS-against on grounders is .494. He gets into trouble when he gives up balls in the air, and he gets fewer grounders with men on, and got surprisingly few grounders overall in his tenure with the Mariners.
His other problem comes on the first pitch of at-bats. If batters put the first pitch in play, they’re hitting .392/.407/.700 off of Erasmo. The sample is obviously not huge (it’s 137 PAs), but that’s so striking, it makes you wonder. Erasmo fares much, much better in all at-bats that move through a 1-0 count. What’s going on? At the risk of doing some armchair psycho work myself, it may be that Erasmo’s so focused on getting ahead of hitters that he gets too much of the plate. After running comically low walk rates in the minors, control started to become an issue for him in the majors, particularly in 2013. Trying to avoid walks may have led him to overcorrect a bit on the first pitch. It’s too early to tell, but it looks like he’s doing a bit better job of avoiding the zone on his first pitch this year, though it’s been a down year overall for Ramirez.
2015 got off to about as bad a start as possible for Erasmo. He allowed 7 runs in 2 innings in his first start of the year, and came back 5 days later and allowed *9* runs in 3 1/3 IP. Banished to the pen after that, he was better, but he’s been fairly impressive since Tampa’s health woes have forced him back into the rotation. He’s made 5 starts since being moved back, and his RA/9 has been 3.13 over 23 IP. That’s…nothing much to talk about, but it’s a hell of a lot better than he started. Indeed, his season numbers still bear the scars of his first two appearances. Take them out, and his seasonal RA/9 is a very good 2.34. He’s coming off a strong start against the Orioles in which he tossed 7 scoreless innings, striking out 7 and walking just one. More intriguingly, Erasmo’s been generating ground balls again. This year, his GB% is 51.7%, up from 37.7% last year in Seattle. Erasmo ran out of time in Seattle, and I think the change of scenery may have been good for all involved. The M’s weren’t wrong to make the trade they made (they got Mike Montgomery in return), but I’d like to know a bit more about what Tampa’s done with him.
So, those breaking balls. In Seattle, Erasmo had a slider and curve he would always tinker with. Righties saw more of the slurvy stuff, while lefties got more change-ups. Because the change was simply a better pitch, he ran very slight reverse splits in Seattle. He wasn’t lost against righties, and had a better K:BB ratio, but gave up more HRs to righties than he did to lefties. And a big reason why was the lack of bite on his breaking balls. Righties hit 13 HRs off breaking balls – out of 17 total HRs. They slugged .556 on his slider and *.725* on his curve. Lefties have done some damage on Erasmo’s fastball, righties feasted on the bendy stuff. Roenis Elias’ curve has been a solid pitch, and thus he’s able to put away same-handed hitters very effectively – so effectively that he typically faces righty-stacked line-ups. Still, the curve functions pretty well against them, too, and that’s a big part of why he’s here and Erasmo’s in Tampa.
EDIT- Line-up changed; LoMo scratched.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Cano, 2B
3: Cruz, DH
4: Seager, 3B
5: Trumbo, 1B
6: Smith, RF
7: Miller, SS
8: Ackley, LF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Elias
With Welington Castillo gone, the M’s have recalled Jesus Sucre. To make room on the active roster, OF Justin Ruggiano has been DFA’d. Odd decision, given that it seems to make Rickie Weeks and Trumbo your back-up OFs.
Tacoma beat New Orleans 6-1 last night, behind 8 scoreless innings from Sam Gaviglio. The red hot Jesus Montero homered in the first off of ex-Rainiers and M’s southpaw Travis Blackley. Tonight, Forrest Snow will start for the R’s against the Zephyrs’ Pat Misch.
Jackson beat Mississippi 6-3 last night, scoring 3 runs in the top of the 9th. Trevor Miller got the win in relief, and DJ Peterson doubled. Cuban lefty Misael Siverio starts tonight for the Generals, while Jake Brigham starts for the M-Braves.
Bakersfield returns home to face Visalia tonight with Dan Altavilla on the hill for the Blaze.
Clinton lost to Dayton 8-2, as Reds prospect Tyler Mahle threw 7 scoreless innings, giving up just 2 hits and striking out 8 Lumberkings. Another prospect starts for Dayton tonight – USC-product Wyatt Strahan, who has a great hard, heavy sinker, but never knew where it was going in college. He’s still walking a few too many, but he’s been effective overall. Pat Peterson gets the ball for Clinton.
Mark Trumbo, Vidal Nuno –> Seattle; Dom Leone, Welington Castillo, Gabby Guerrero, Jack Reinheimer –> Arizona
The M’s and Diamondbacks pulled off a six-player swap tonight that bring free-swinging slugger Mark Trumbo and undersized lefty starter Vidal Nuno to the M’s. At first glance, this seems like something of an odd move. The M’s have done very well against lefties, and struggled a bit against righties on the year. The M’s have a high SLG%, low OBP righty to platoon at LF/DH in Rickie Weeks, and the M’s just saw Mike Montgomery pitch effectively against the Yankees. It seems odd, because it is – there’s no getting around it. Many baseball writers I respect are lining up to lambast the trade, and I completely understand the argument: the M’s have been terrible at getting on base, and adept at hitting home runs, and this combination has produced a bad offense overall. The M’s just acquired a hitter who’s terrible at getting on base, but adept at hitting home runs. Typically, teams patch holes by acquiring skills they don’t have instead of acquiring players whose skills mirror the club’s (hole-infested) overall numbers. When Mike Morse failed, the club brought in Corey Hart. When Rickie Weeks failed, they’re bringing in Mark Trumbo *at the cost of a top prospect*.
And yet, you look at the overall talent the M’s are bringing in versus what they’re sending out and the picture gets a bit fuzzier. This is, essentially, a brilliant answer to a question no one’s asked. And that brings us to something that may actually balance the oddity of bringing a sub-.300 OBP slugger to a sub-.300 OBP team. If you’re a big league GM in 2015, what’s the BEST POSSIBLE phone call you could receive? Maybe that your pitching prospect in AA is suddenly throwing 105, or that your low-A shortstop has homered in 15 straight at-bats. Failing that, though, I think perhaps the dream scenario is for Arizona GM Dave Stewart to call you, and for Dave Stewart to have a clear, imminent, pressing need. Arizona has confused the rest of baseball with a series of moves that, thus far, have failed to improve the club. They have a brilliant, all-star 1B and some solid pieces around him, but their eye for pro talent seems…different than other clubs. The club committed $70 million to Cuban Yasmany Tomas then tried and repeatedly failed to convince people he was a 3B and not a LF. This week, their starting catcher, Tuffy Gosewisch, went down with an ACL tear and will miss the rest of the year. The D-Backs are playing 3B/C Jordan Pacheco and the mortal remains of Gerald Laird at C right now, and you’re Jack Zduriencik, and a phone call comes in with a 602 area code. What would YOU do?
The D-Backs have been shopping Mark Trumbo for a while. They have three solid OFs in AJ Pollock, Ender Inciarte and David Peralta, and they’ve got Tomas, who seriously can’t play 3B and would have to move anyway when starter Jake Lamb returns from injury. If there’s one player in baseball available for a sub-market price, it might be Trumbo. Adding in Vidal Nuno, who fills an ACTUAL need for the M’s, and the move gets easier to stomach. More importantly, while Trumbo doesn’t seem like a great fit in Seattle, he’s probably a good fit *somewhere*. In the next month, teams that have a need might inquire about Trumbo, and now they’ll call Seattle. I believe the M’s acquired Welington Castillo with the belief that he’d stick around and provide some offense from the C spot, but dealt him because they had a better offer. Similarly, I think the M’s believe Trumbo is a solution to their runs-scored problem, but I have to think they’d listen if, say, the Angels wanted to upgrade from poor-man’s-Trumbo CJ Cron to the genuine article in an attempt to track down the Astros. The M’s have turned Yoervis Medina, Dom Leone and prospects into Mark Trumbo and rotation depth. That’s not an earth-shattering return, but it’s also not too shabby.
The part of this deal that stings is losing Gabriel Guerrero, Vlad’s nephew and an intriguing talent who was a consensus top-10 prospect for the M’s. Despite hitting .300 in the Cal League last year, Guerrero clearly hasn’t turned his raw tools into production at this stage. He’s got a .567 OPS in AA thus far – a .267 wOBA – in his age-21 season. The comparison is as unfair as it is inevitable, but Vlad Guerrero was *also* 21 when he AA, but his slash line was a bit different – it was .360/.438/.612. Turning tools to talent takes longer for some guys, so Gabby’s current year OPS is clearly not his ceiling, but bloodlines and tools only go so far. Magglio Ordonez famously struggled for years in the White Sox system and he turned out okay, but I think people forget just how unlikely it is for guys who struggle in the minors to turn into big league stars. I’m not as into scouting-by-statistics as I was when I was young and dumb, but Guerrero has plenty of red flags at this stage.
Castillo clearly filled a need on the M’s, and his absence makes the team marginally weaker. Instead of Castillo spelling Zunino, it’ll be Jesus Sucre or John Hicks. Neither has, or will ever have, Castillo’s bat, and that’s a clear downgrade. But both might be better defenders, and the offensive gap simply can’t be that big given the number of plate appearances Castillo and his replacements would get the rest of the way. Losing Dominic Leone is tougher now that the M’s vaunted relief-pitching depth isn’t what it used to be, but we’re talking about a (struggling) 6th inning righty. Leone wasn’t going to close for this club, and is appropriately behind Tom Wilhelmsen and Carson Smith as righty set-up men. Jack Reinheimer was a perfectly decent MiLB SS who was already splitting time with perfectly decent MiLB SS Tyler Smith for AA Jackson. The M’s side of the deal isn’t JUST org depth, but they paid a price they could afford.
Ultimately, your view of this comes down to two things. One, is Gabriel Guerrero one tweak away from stardom or another in a long line of Vlad’s relatives who haven’t been able to hack it in the affiliated minors? Two, is this a case where Zduriencik’s fixation on RH power will override any potential benefit the M’s might get from pulling off a solid trade – that is, will the club’s need to run an OF of Trumbo/Ruggiano/Cruz against any lefty, defense be damned, prevent them from maximizing their return? I don’t really know the answer to either question. I believe Guerrero is a long shot, and I believe Trumbo has actual value*. I think the M’s are in a better position as we near the trade deadline, even as I acknowledge that they haven’t materially improved the 2015 offense that much. I’m a bit concerned that the club doesn’t care about their own OBP, and I’m concerned at how they’ve handled the bench and LF spots to date. That said, I keep thinking about the value of a desperate Dave Stewart, willing to sell Trumbo and Nuno in exchange for Welington Castillo+.
* In a very low run-scoring environment, SLG% becomes more valuable, as you’re less likely to string a bunch of hits together to score runs. In a high run-scoring environment, OBP is more valuable, because the cost of each out is higher. The M’s play in a very low-scoring environment, so you could kind of straight-face an argument about Trumbo here. It wouldn’t really work given the M’s combo of terrible OBP, high-SLG% and terrible runs-scored, but you could say that Trumbo is in a way more valuable in Seattle than in Arizona, even if he’d likely put up better numbers in the desert. That’s putting aside his value to other clubs, which is real, and might rise the closer we get to the trade deadline.
[EDIT – Dave has a good article at Fangraphs this morning on the point I raised here, that Trumbo has a bit more value in Seattle *because* the team OBP and run environment are low. Take a look.]
Game 53, Yankees at Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. Masahiro Tanaka, 12:40pm
Early game today, as it’s getaway day for the Yankees. In the M’s last getaway day, Felix shut down the Rays at Tropicana. This is a very different situation, but c’mon Taijuan…you got this.
Mike Montgomery was effective yesterday, but the bullpen bullpenned, and the M’s playoff odds took another hit. In the past week, the M’s playoff odds have dropped by about 17% according to Fangraphs, and by about 12% according to BP. Essentially all of the drop has been in their odds of winning the AL West. Their wildcard odds haven’t really changed, but there’s less chance of the M’s catching both the Angels and Astros now. The last time I said the M’s needed to make a move was two weeks ago, and they did, finishing their road trip strong and heading home on a roll. Of course, even then, at something of a low ebb, their playoff odds were better, as less of the season had been played, and thus the M’s preseason expectations were driving more of the final win total. It’s time to make a move that lasts longer than a week, guys.
Masahiro Tanaka was supposed to be Hisashi Iwakuma plus – great control, unhittable splitter, plus a few ticks on the fastball. What he’s been is…ok, what he’s been is injured, but over his first 150IP in the US, he’s been more or less equivalent to Iwakuma. Now, the Yankees paid a boatload of money for Tanaka, and I think many expected a true ace, but being more-or-less-equivalent-to-Iwakuma is a damn good outcome for a pitcher. If there’s a problem, besides the whole injury thing, it’s that his fastball isn’t any better than Iwakuma’s. Tanaka’s four-seam is coming in around 91 this year, and he throws a sinker at about the same speed. But for whatever reason, it’s not as effective as Iwakuma’s 90mph heater. Iwakuma gets far more whiffs on his, and it’s taken deep less often. In his brief MLB career, batters are hitting .316 on Tanaka’s four-seam fastball, and are SLUGGING .614. On the sinker, it’s .322/.521, respectively. That’s…bad. Of course, Tanaka’s split is a legitimate weapon, and he throws it often enough that he can still be effective despite a pedestrian fastball. Tanaka’s breaking balls are also a bit more effective (thus far) than Iwakuma’s; Tanaka has an effective slider, while Iwakuma’s is mediocre.
Like Iwakuma, Tanaka has run reverse platoon splits thus far. It’s righties who do the most damage on his fastball, and they’re less likely to see a split. As a result, they’ve hit more HRs off of Tanaka despite facing him less often than lefties. Reverse platoon splits are often a weird anomaly, a byproduct of a small sample, but every once in a while, they’re meaningful. In Tanaka, all we have is a small sample, but I’m willing to bet that his splits are, for lack of a better word, “real.” Iwakuma has run essentially equal (his FIP against righties is a tiny bit worse than it is against lefties) splits over his career, after all. No, righties won’t continue to slug .700 on Tanaka’s fastball, but as long as he throws his best pitch to lefties more than righties, righties will have a slight comparative advantage.
Taijuan Walker’s fastball has essentially the same shape – the same movement – as Tanaka’s. Both more horizontally about 5″, and have 10″ of vertical rise due to backspin. Both have hard cutters with similar movement as well – a difference in horizontal movement of about 6″ or so from the FB, and 3-4″ less rise. As you might imagine, though, their splitters are very distinct. What Tanaka does that Walker hasn’t yet figured out how to do is generate serious drop with the pitch. Tanaka’s drops 8″ more than his fastball, while Walker’s is a bit less than 6″. It doesn’t sound like a lot, and the fact that Walker’s is fastball may have something to do with it, but it makes a difference. With more drop, batters see the pitch as a strike longer, and that leads to more swings out of the zone. Against Tanaka’s split, batters swing at *most* splitters in the zones below the bottom of the strike zone. Against Taijuan’s, they’re more likely to hold off. And that’s a big reason why Taijuan’s o-swing% is nothing special, while Tanaka’s is above average. The splitter is such an effective pitch because it can be thrown for balls and STILL generate swings. In 2014, Tanaka had the 3rd best swing rate on splitters, one spot ahead of Iwakuma, with a 63.3% mark, *despite* the fact he throws it out of the zone far more often than he leaves one IN the zone. When they’re not whiffs, swings at balls tend to generate bad contact, and thus it’s not a surprise that Tanaka (and Iwakuma) have run lower than average BABIPs – this is something Taijuan Walker really needs to learn how to do.
1: Morrison, 1B
2: Jackson, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smith, RF
7: Miller, SS
8: Ackley, LF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Walker
Six lefties. Damn.
Happy 40th birthday to the Seattle Times M’s beat writer and friend of the site Ryan Divish. Everyone have some Crown Royal in honor of a hell of a writer/twitterer.
Danny Farquhar’s first start was so-so – he went 3 2/3, giving up 2 runs on a HR to Derek Dietrich. He blanked New Orleans for three innings before the HR, so that’s somewhat encouraging. The Rainiers won the game 11-2, thanks to some great relief work by Justin Germano and a 4-5-with-a-HR day from Jesus Montero. James Jones, Pat Kivlehan and Shawn O’Malley also homered, and the Rainiers scored 8 runs off Justin Nicolino, who’d been excellent thus far. Today, Sam Gaviglio gets the start against the Zephyrs.
Jackson was swept in their doubleheader against the Mississippi Braves yesterday, losing 3-0 and 5-2. Victor Mateo blanked them for 6 innings in the first game despite not striking anyone out, and the Braves got 3 runs in the first (on a 3R HR) off Scott DeCecco, and then neither team scored after that. Gabby Guerrero had one of the Generals three hits, and also threw a runner out at 2nd. Moises Hernandez took the loss in the nightcap, giving up 4 runs in 3 1/3IP. DJ Peterson had two singles and C Marcus Littlewood had 3, but the Generals were held without an extra-base hit in both games. Today, Jake Zokan faces off against Tyrell Jenkins, an up and coming prospect who moved to the Braves as part of the Jason Heyward/Shelby Miller swap. Jenkins had shoulder surgery in 2013, but returned in time for the Arizona Fall League last year, where he threw 93-94.
Bakersfield’s bats came alive yesterday in a 13-8 win over Rancho Cucamonga. Nelson Ward doubled and homered, and the Blaze pounded out 15 hits. Eddie Campbell struggled again, but had plenty of run support. The Blaze knocked opposing starter Zack Bird out in the first inning; maybe it helped that they’d faced him twice before. The Blaze are off today.
Clinton hosts Dayton tonight, and Tyler Herb will start for the LumberKings.
Game 52, Yankees at Mariners
Mike Montgomery vs. CC Sabathia, 7:10pm
Welcome to the big leagues, Mike Montgomery. It’s been a long, long road for the lefty. He was drafted with the 36th overall pick in 2008, and cracked the Royals top 10 prospect list back in 2009, placing him around guys like Dan Cortes, Kila Ka’aihue and Danny Duffy. The following year, Montgomery topped pretty much everyone’s KC list, and was in the top 5 for 2011, the famously hyped best system in the history of systems. He had good size, above average velocity, a solid change, and the makings of a solid curve. The only question seemed to be when he’d debut – late 2011? Certainly 2012. Instead, though, Montgomery had a terrible introduction to the high minors in 2011, and the promotions just didn’t come. Instead of a temporary setback, Montgomery struggled again in 2012. His walk rate – always on the high side -was a red flag, and was no longer balanced by strikeouts. In a few years, Montgomery had gone from prize of the system to a potential bust.
Before the 2013 system, the Royals and Rays pulled off probably the most widely debated and discussed trade of the past decade. Wil Myers, the new star of the Royals system, headed to Tampa in exchange for SP James Shields and RP Wade Miley. The Rays also grabbed some prospects to help balance things out – SP Jake Odorizzi, who seemed like a 5th starter, OF lottery ticket Patrick Leonard, and Montgomery, a classic buy-low candidate. The Rays were able to help Odorizzi turn into something much better than anyone thought, but Montgomery proved a tougher nut to crack. He had a better ERA in the Rays system (the IL isn’t the same as the PCL, because nothing is), but seemed just as stalled out – averagey K rates, too-high walk rate, no ability to strand runners. Montgomery had blown two chances to develop, and nice fastball aside, time was running out. The Rays dumped him for Erasmo Ramirez at the end of spring training, and everyone (including me) though the M’s might move him to the bullpen and see if his velo would play up in short stints. Instead, he’s quietly having his best high-minors season in the rotation.
This isn’t a dramatic transformation the way it was with Danny Farquhar. Instead, pretty much every metric is just a bit better than it’s been. For example, Montgomery’s previous career high for the percentage of his pitches that have gone for strikes was 60.7%, set in Omaha and tied in Durham. This year, it’s 62.5%. His best whiff rate had been 9.7%. It’s at 12% now, matched be his lowest contact%. His HR rate’s as low as it was when he was the darling of the Royals’ system, but this year’s mark has come in the PCL. Now, all of this is nice, and shows that he’s been pitching better than he did last year, but there’s some luck here, too. His HR/FB rate seems absurdly low, and the sample size makes it hard to say that he’s turned a corner. But he’s pitched well enough to earn a shot, and I’m excited to see what he does with it.
CC Sabathia was remarkably durable and consistent for over a decade, but the red flags are themselves worn and tattered now. After losing both weight and velocity last season, Sabathia struggled and then lost most of the year to injury. I think expectations were low this season, but Sabathia’s managed to prove the pessimists right in the early going. His FIP actually isn’t too bad, as Sabathia maintains very low walk rates. But with his FB at 90mph, he’s giving up lots of hard-hit balls, and that’s pushed his BABIP to .350, and his HR rate has been high since 2013. Sabathia was famous for dominating righties and lefties alike, thanks to a solid change-up and a slider that was effective against anyone with a bat in their hands. But since 2013, his ability to deal with righties has declined, and he’s now running extreme platoon splits. Since the start of last season, Sabathia’s pitched 106+ IP and given up 20 HRs to righties, who are hitting .365 off his four-seamer and .325 off his sinker. He knows how to pitch, and can get whiffs with his change-up against over-aggressive hitters, so that’s something Weeks/Ruggiano should be aware of. But this is a match-up that needs a righty-stocked line-up.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Bloomquist, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Weeks, DH
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Ruggiano, LF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Montgomery
Tacoma welcomes New Orleans to Cheney tonight at 6:05. Sounds like Danny Farquhar will make the start tonight and then stay in the rotation for a while. Interesting move.
Jackson’s got Scott DeCecco on the mound against Mississippi in the first game of a double-header. Moises Hernandez gets the ball in game 2.
Bakersfield faces Rancho Cucamonga tonight. No word on the Blaze starter, but Zack Bird starts for the Quakes – this’ll be the 3rd time this year Bakersfield have faced him.
M’s Flurry of Moves and the End of An Experiment
As we found out all too early last night, Mayckol Guaipe was called up to provide some help to a beleaguered bullpen.* The M’s pen had been worked pretty hard in the Cleveland series, particularly the Sunday game, and with Danny Farquhar in Tacoma (and changing roles), you can understand the need to add a live body. The problem was the flip side of that move – optioning SS Chris Taylor back to Tacoma.
We’re less than a month from the announcement that the Mariners were officially moving Brad Miller from his perch as the starting SS and shifting him around the diamond. Taylor would be the SS, and Miller could help fill holes in the OF, spell Seager and/or Cano, and get some work in CF. As I mentioned at the time, it was an odd move, borne of frustration with problems in the OF, and one that would, in the short term, probably cost the M’s a few runs. So it’s a good thing the M’s seem to be undoing this rash decision, right? No, it’s somewhat troubling.
Taylor struggled at the plate, and that played a role in this, as did the bullpen shortage. But to do something as big as moving your starting SS to the OF is an expression of priority. It says, given the depth we have at SS, and given the problems we have in LF/CF, fixing the OF – and seeing what MIller’s capable of out there – is MORE important than offensive production at SS. If offense at SS was a critical issue, you’d never have made the swap in the first place, as no projection system and no observer would see Taylor as a better all-around *hitter* than Miller. Given the learning curve, the disruption to Miller and his own development, one would expect that the list of things that would cause the team to abort the Zobristification would be pretty short. Taylor gets hurt/traded, Ackley turns into an offensive force and stays productive for X months, the M’s acquire a great CF…something like that. As reasons to pull the plug go, “Chris Taylor had 30 bad ABs” is not terribly substantial. Neither is, “But the bullpen is so tired!” As it is, they stopped their experiment so soon that it makes it harder to extract a lot of meaningful information from it. If the M’s want to really understand if they have a CF for next year (assuming Austin Jackson walks), well, what do they know? Miller played 39 innings in the OF – 6 of them in CF. 6 innings.
The other alternative is that Austin Jackson’s hot start (he has 8 hits in his 7 games since coming off the DL) reduced the need to see what Miller was capable of. Again, this seems wholly unsatisfactory to me. The M’s dealt with Miller’s frustration, and then had him learn a new position (actually multiple positions) on the fly, dedicating coaching resources to the process as well. If a 7 game sample from Jackson’s enough to shake your faith in the entire enterprise of changing Miller’s position, then you had no business doing it. It’s the same thing as saying that Taylor’s bad month necessitated a move. Some decisions are worth revisiting after a few weeks. This does not seem like one of them.
Tacoma SS Ketel Marte, one of the M’s top prospects, just broke his thumb over the weekend, and will miss the next 6 months weeks [sorry about that – six WEEKS, not six months. It’s not THAT bad]. I don’t even want to contemplate the idea that the M’s were influenced by the need to bolster Tacoma’s IF, so I don’t think that’s it. The M’s SS depth is a little lower than it was, so you could argue that the lack of depth behind Taylor could’ve been a thumb on the scale – a minor point that added a bit of impetus to returning Miller to the position full-time. I think it’s valid as a very consideration, but it’s several orders of magnitude less important than the reasons they cited when they made the switch in early May. Besides, the M’s have TWO decent SS in AA in Jack Reinheimer and Tyler Smith. Neither are prospects in Marte’s (or Taylor’s) class, but they’re not pure org depth either.
I wasn’t a fan of moving Miller off SS, but I can certainly acknowledge that there was an upside. It did make use of the M’s SS depth, and having a lefty CF in the mix in 2016 is pretty intriguing. Whatever I thought of it, it needed to be implemented with some conviction. Miller wasn’t thrilled with the idea, and while he may like returning to SS, he probably also feels like he’s been dicked around by the team. The M’s have some strengths, and they have some problems. They need to focus on those problems and work to solve them, not let short-term issues drive their decision-making. That’s hard for a team in a losing streak, and it’s hard for a team that’s probably keeping a close eye on their own playoff odds. But short-term thinking of this kind doesn’t necessarily improve those odds; you can’t fix your biggest problems if you can’t decide what they are.
* Guaipe had a great MLB debut, but he’s been optioned back to Tacoma to make room for tonight’s starter, Mike Montgomery.