Fake Game 6, Mariners at Reds
JA Happ vs. Jason Marquis, 1:05pm (note daylight savings-adjusted time) 710am Radio
The M’s head to Goodyear today to take on Cincinnati. There they’ll face Jason Marquis, a pitcher who came up way back in 2000, in the last period when the M’s were picked as a playoff team. Marquis didn’t pitch in the majors last year; he threw 50 unremarkable innings in the Phillies system, and if you couldn’t break last year’s Phillies’ roster, that’s not a good sign. One reason why is health. Marquis had his 2013 season shut down with elbow pain, and he was bothered by a sore back last year. After some recuperation time, he’s feeling healthy, but he’s still something of a long shot, even with Homer Bailey still sore following forearm surgery.
Though his career platoon splits look pretty normal, when Marquis’ velocity dropped, his splits have gone through the roof. He’s always been a ground ball pitcher, but he’s also had home run problems that have grown worse later in his career. It’s interesting (ok, that’s a stretch, but it’s early March), because Marquis still has a pitch that’s been quite effective against LHBs. His split/change generates plenty of ground balls and weak contact. Against righties, he’s approaching a 50:50 mix of fastballs and sliders, and the slider is still difficult for righties to deal with. The problem is that he simply can’t GET to the offspeed stuff. Over his last two seasons in the bigs (a sample of over 200 innings), righties are slugging .522 off of Marquis’ sinker, while lefties are slugging .525. The fact that Marquis’ fastball velo has dropped about 3mph over the past several years seems like an important factor here.
The injuries and the poor FB explain why Marquis’ been mediocre recently, but they don’t explain why he’s been so bad against lefties in particular. That seems less about pure stuff than an odd game plan. At this point in his career, Marquis’ basically a three-pitch pitcher, with a sinker, a slider and a splitter. To righties, he’s just a two-pitch guy, throwing a flurry of sliders, and keeping the change mostly on the shelf. To lefties, he throws the sinker and splitter, but he also throws a fair number of sliders – nearly 20% over his last 200IP. Maybe it’s to give lefties another look. Maybe he thinks he can sneak a strike throwing a backdoor slider early in the count. Whatever the reason, it’s been disastrous. Since 2012, lefties are slugging .877 against the slider, and have as many HRs off of it as they do his fastball. Now, maybe the reason his split’s been so effective is BECAUSE lefties have to at least consider a slider could be on its way. Maybe the problem isn’t the pitch, it’s the location. In general, Marquis tries to bury the pitch at lefties front foot, but if he misses, it tends to get crushed. In any event, it seems time to try something new. The old approach made him ineffective, and all those sliders (mostly to RHBs, of course) may have contributed to his elbow injury in 2013. We’ll see if he’s doing something new today.
1: Jones, RF
2: Jackson, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Peterson, 1B
6: Bloomquist, 2B
7: Chavez, LF
8: Taylor, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Happ
Robinson Cano’s on bereavement leave due to the death of his Grandfather in the Dominican Republic.
Yesterday we heard about Yu Darvish’s elbow injury. Today, it sounds like Cliff Lee could be next.
Speaking of injuries, Franklin Gutierrez made it only a couple of days before suffering his first setback of 2015 – in this case, a groin strain. It doesn’t sound too serious, but then they never do.
We could see Fernando Rodney today, along with Charlie Furbush, Danny Farquhar, Lucas Luetge and assorted minor leaguers. Go M’s.
Baseball Mitosis Allows M’s to Face White Sox AND Diamondbacks
Split Squad –
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Josh Collmenter 12:05pm, 710am radio
Jordan Pries vs. Hector Noesi 12:05pm
The M’s first split-squad game allows both Brad Miller and Chris Taylor to get some reps at SS, but other than that, there’s just not much the M’s need to learn this spring. For the prospects, there are generally more questions, as level, position and balancing line-ups come into play. But the clarity at the top of the M’s seems like it extends at least as far as AAA Tacoma, where DJ Peterson and Patrick Kivlehan can both see time thanks to Kivlehan’s willingness to get some work in in an OF corner.
RHP Jordan Pries, who takes on the Sox and our old friend Hector Noesi, spent 2014 last year and is essentially guaranteed another season there this year. The former 30th round pick was an early-April call-up to AAA and cemented his place in the rotation by giving up one run or less in six of his first seven starts for the Rainiers. Without big time velo or great pure stuff, the smallish righty used deception and guile to navigate the treacherous PCL. Through May he had a combined RA (including his two starts for Jackson), and was excellent through July. While he tired down the stretch, he did enough to be named the M’s minor league pitcher of the year and open a lot of eyes.
Hisashi Iwakuma’s healthy this spring, which could pay dividends later in the year. The righty told Bob Dutton that while the finger injury he suffered last February didn’t affect his play, missing spring training was the primary cause of his late-season struggles. He’ll face D-backs righty Josh Collmenter, the ex-15th round draft pick who breezed through the minors thanks to a funky straight-over-the-top delivery. Without much in the way of pure stuff, some thought he’d be figured out once big league hitters adjusted to him. Collmenter’s now logged over 500 innings, and while he’s never going to be a star, he’s been worth over 6 fWAR to the D-backs both from the rotation and out of the bullpen. Not bad for a right-hander with a fastball that clocks in at 86. After spending all of 2013 in the pen, and 2014 split between the two roles, it sounds like he’s slotted in to the rotation this year.
A prion is a protein molecule that’s somehow mis-folded, and which, when it replicates, creates long fibrils that form plaques that disrupt or destroy healthy tissue. They are transmissable, and can essentially turn normal, healthy proteins into misshapen disease agents. They’re the cause of some truly nasty, incurable disease of the brain, like Creutzfeld-Jakob’s disease (Mad Cow disease). Like a prion, Hector Noesi looks like a normal, helpful member of a pitching staff. He’s got solid velocity, some interesting movement on his sinker, and an array of decent offspeed pitches. Whatever the reason, a slight mis-alignment caused extensive damage to his host (the M’s), and despite the best efforts of a series of pitching coaches, Noesi remained a stubbornly effective win-destroyer throughout his M’s tenure. Noesi then became transmissable, first infecting the Rangers, who succumbed frighteningly quickly. He moved to the White Sox soon after, and while the south siders struggled with the effects of the encephalitis-like symptoms Noesi creates, they seemed to reach a bizarre kind of equilibrium. The White Sox incorporated the pathogen into its system and somehow directed it back against the M’s as a weapon, the way a Komodo Dragon uses powerful microbes in its mouth to kill prey. Noesi appeared in four games against Seattle, throwing 18 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run. Against the Rangers, he made a single start, going 7 IP, and giving up just 1R on 4H. Perhaps the most terrifying aspect of prions is that they can’t be stopped – medical science seems to learn more about they progress and how they leap from animal to animal, but that hasn’t helped come up with a game plan of how to slow or reverse their terrible, brain-destroying progress. Similarly, it seems reductive to say that Noesi’s success against the M’s is another Don Cooper special. Anyone who’s watched him for long knows that Noesi is virulent, and that he produces strong neurological reactions. Perhaps it’s for the best that today’s contest isn’t on tv.
Game vs. AZ line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Weeks, LF
6: Peterson, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Kivlehan, 3B
9: Taylor, SS
SP: Iwakuma
Game vs. CHW:
1: Marte, 2B
2: Ruggiano, RF
3: Gutierrez, CF
4: Seager, DH
5: Morrison, 1B
6: Rivero, 3B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Miller, SS
9: Baker, C
SP: Pries
I’m not saying you can pin the Rangers staggering string of injuries on that ill-fated waiver claim on Hector Noesi, especially because Jurickson Profar went down before Noesi got there. Still, with the news that Yu Darvish has an elbow injury that could, COULD, mean TJ surgery, it’s possible that the Noesi virus spread quickly in an immuno-compromised host. The Rangers are a divisional rival, and I don’t want them to return to the all-conquering colossus they appeared to be back in 2011-2013 with a great young line-up, an elite minor league system and a smart GM. But we’re at the point where I feel legitimately bad for them, and I’d hate to see Darvish out for the year. They were always going to struggle to win 80 this year, but without Darvish, they look lost. A top three of Darvish, Holland and Gallardo was better – at least on paper – than anyone in the division save perhaps Seattle, but the depth dropped off quickly after that. Take out Darvish and the team starts to look more like last year’s throw-25-guys-at-the-wall-and-see-who-sticks disaster. Get well soon, Yu.
Danny Hultzen’s progress continues, as he’ll throw live BP today. No word on when he might appear in a game. Felix will appear in a game on Tuesday, not Wednesday as previously reported.
The Royals made a pair of interesting ex-Mariner signings in recent days. First, they picked up 1B Casey Kotchman, who didn’t play at all in 2014. Today, they signed magical giant RHP Chris Young to a one-year deal. It’s actually kind of remarkable how long Young was on the market given his success last year and reasonable health (hat tip: Ryan Divish).
Practice Game 3, M’s at Dodgers
Erasmo Ramirez vs. David Huff, 12:05pm, 710am radio
Erasmo Ramirez enters camp at 24, with 35 big league starts under his belt and a very uncertain future. Bob Dutton’s piece details it well – his struggles over the past two years resulting in minor league stints that burned his options and leave him entering the 2015 without a lot of hope for a roster spot in Seattle. Ramirez isn’t pitching to make the team, but he’s pitching to make A team. As a long-time Ramirez fan, this is disappointing, but it’s hard to argue the M’s have misused the Nicaraguan. Instead, he’s been undone by the failure of his breaking balls to develop (curve and slider), nagging injuries that probably torpedoed his 2013, and mental lapses that he’s perfectly willing to cop to in that interview with Dutton. He’s 24, has a plus change-up, sneaky-good velocity, and declining results. With the M’s rotation and bullpen all but set, it seems inevitable that someone will land a cheap, young starter this spring. If they can iron a few things out, they’re going to get some value out of him. The M’s are simply at a point on the win curve where they can’t be sentimental, and they can’t think about “value” in the abstract. If Elias and/or Walker give them more chances to win games in 2015, then Erasmo will move on.
David Huff has bounced around to several teams recently after coming up in that interesting mid-2000s glut of Indians starters who had low K-rates and tried to manage contact – while Minnesota was obsessed with this profile, Cleveland dabbled before moving on to Salazar/Kluber/Carrasco-style nuclear-grade stuff. Huff had some surface similarity to Erasmo, at least early on. Huff’s a lefty, but moved quickly through the ranks thanks to a good change-up and low walk rates. Like Erasmo, the super-low walk rates didn’t follow him to the majors, and a new problem emerged: home runs. Unlike Ramirez, though, Huff’s biggest challenge was that his primary weapon – a change thrown around 81-83 – wasn’t good enough to dominate MLB hitters. In his career, batters have hit .300 with a .500 SLG% off of Huff’s change. They hit his fastball too; if they can identify a change-up on its way, then they were clearly capable of recognizing a non-change. While he’d have some success now and again out of the bullpen, that says a lot more about Huff’s role than it does about Huff.
Last year, though, he made a pretty big adjustment. He’ll still throw the cambio, but it’s in a supporting role now, thrown to RHBs only. Instead, he developed a cutter and throws that 30% of the time, about the same as he used to throw the change. He’d been using a few more cutters early on in a disastrous two-month stint with the Giants, but changed his approach markedly after the Yankees picked him up on waivers in mid June. From then on, he was excellent, albeit in a tiny, tiny sample. In every previous year, he’d shown reverse platoon splits, but last year, he was actually effective against lefties. He’s signed a MiLB deal with the Dodgers, and given his success with the Yanks, he may be looking for a bullpen job, but he’ll get the start today to see if the cutter can help him manage his long-standing problems with homers, and if he can maintain his improvement against LHBs without letting righties force him into the ever-crowded pool of potential LOOGYs.
1: Ruggiano, CF
2: Weeks, LF
3: Gutierrez, DH
4: Montero, 1B
5: Peterson, 3B
6: Romero, RF
7: Bloomquist, 2B
8: Taylor, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Erasmo Ramirez
LHP Edgar Olmos is back in camp today, after MLB voided the Rangers’ waiver claim on him. He’s the reliever the M’s got from the Marlins, then lost to Texas on waivers. When he showed up at Rangers’ camp, they detected a problem in his shoulder – an impingement of some sort. So, they complained to MLB, and MLB agreed that the M’s had sold on defective goods, so un-did the waiver claim, returning Olmos to the M’s 40-man roster. Because life, and baseball, can often be impossibly cruel, the M’s responded by DFA’ing 1B Ji-Man Choi, fresh off of his surgery to repair his femur. The Rangers eventually FOUND a left-handed reliever who isn’t damaged (yet) when they signed Joe Beimel to a one-year deal. This has been a depressing update.
Game 2: Padres at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Andrew Cashner, 12:05pm, Root TV/710am
One game in, and the M’s suffered their first serious injury, as 1B Ji-Man Choi broke his fibula trying to snare an errant throw from SS Tyler Smith. Choi’s been beset by serious injuries for years, but I don’t think even Chris Snelling would’ve broken a fibula by jumping.* It’s a reminder that 1) health is a tool, and 2) baseball is relentless in the way that it exposes every bodily weakness and exploits them. Franklin Gutierrez knows the feeling. Get well soon, Ji-Man.
Today’s game features something quite like the opening day line-up and the other candidate for the 5th starter job, Roenis Elias. Taijuan Walker had a solid start against the Padres, and Ryan Divish had a good story about his mechanics (simplified, and using the stretch even without men on) and his improving split-change. The M’s face big righty Andrew Cashner, still one of the hardest-throwing starters in the league, though not quite the 99mph monster he was when he first moved from the Cubs to the Padres. At that time, he relied on his huge four-seamer, and paired it with a slider and change-up. Since then, he’s switched to a still-plenty-fast sinker as his primary fastball. Despite the radar gun readings, Cashner struggled both with his control and, more recently (and surprisingly), with contact. Batters now make more contact against him than average, and thus his K rate’s been below average in the rotation. That said, he’s become an effective pitcher thanks to solid ground ball rates and some new-found control.
Against righties, he’s a essentially a pitch-to-contact sinkerball machine, with very low walk rates and sky-high ground ball rates. If you limit fly balls, and then have a home park that minimizes the damage that the occasional fly ball can do, you can be a pretty effective pitcher. In addition, his mid-upper 90s velocity means the contact he gives up is generally poorer than that yielded by a more traditional, late-period-Derek-Lowe style sinkerball hurler. It’s worth noting, though, that he’s very different against lefties. Against lefties, he’ll throw more change-ups and chase strikeouts, at the expense of some extra walks. Unlike righties, lefties tend to hit the ball in the air. Part of this is due to the way Cashner pitches them – a steady diet of sinkers away. That can produce opposite-field fly balls, and for whatever reason, lefties are able to elevate the few pitches that Cashner throws inside or up. The M’s will throw six lefty hitters at Cashner, so we’ll see if they’re able to drive the ball.
Roenis Elias was one of the best stories of camp last year, making the team out of nowhere thanks to a funky delivery and good velocity from the left side. Last year, the M’s seemed concerned about the lack of consistency in Elias’ release point. Against lefties, he’d drop way down at times, and stay upright against righties. So, we got a story or two about picking a release point and sticking with it near the end of March 2014, but there wasn’t a whole lot of evidence that Elias listened. Even late in the year, you’d see two or three distinct groupings for his pitches, and why not? He’d been far more effective than any of us thought possible, and his ability to neutralize lefties was a big part of the reason why. In this respect, he’s a lot like the Padres’ own Cuban 5th starter, righty Odrisamer Despaigne, who used several release angles and odd pitches to destroy righties in 2014.
Today’s line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Elias
The Padres line-up includes Abe Almonte, the opening day CF for the M’s last year while Seth Smith was in the opening day line-up for the Friars in 2014.
* Snelling would’ve torn ligaments instead.
So it Begins: M’s vs. Padres
Tai Walker vs. Jason Lane, 12:00pm, Root TV
As Jeff mentioned here, and then in more depth at Fangraphs today, the M’s are projected to be one of the AL’s elite teams in 2015. While they’re not prohibitive favorites, the projection systems generally have them as the best team in the AL West on paper. This makes some sense – as we’ve talked about before, the story of the offseason was Oakland’s makeover which may set them up well in future years, but clearly comes at a cost of 2015 wins. The Rangers went from perennial contender to an awkward semi-rebuild, and their playoff chances have dropped more than any other team’s over the past year. The Angels were a balanced team in 2014, but injuries, aging, and, uh, Josh Hamilton have taken their toll. Meanwhile, the M’s have made several low-key moves aimed at covering some of their glaring weaknesses from last year. Because of the *way* they did so – largely by learning to love the platoon – there’s really not a whole lot to compete for as the Cactus League season begins. The M’s – and M’s fans – aren’t looking for surprises or breakouts. We’re rooting against news.
How lucky, then, that we kick things off with a game that doesn’t even count towards the actual Cactus League standings. It’s semi-ludicrous that ANYTHING can “count” in that context, but we’ll get to that tomorrow. Today, the M’s send out a split squad line-up and Taijuan Walker to take on the intra-building rivals, the San Diego Padres. The Pads are clearly taking this pretty seriously, as they’re starting former big league OF Jason Lane. Lane’s a familiar face to those of us who follow the PCL, as he’s been in the league for many years, essentially always as a position player, but who inevitably got called on to pitch in blowouts. Since focusing more on pitching, his FB’s up to around 88, and he’s got a surprisingly decent change-up.
Walker’s the one guy who one can argue is playing for a job this spring. I think the M’s want him in the rotation, even if that means sending one of last year’s big suprises, Roenis Elias, to Tacoma as depth. The story of Walker’s spring has been a change in his repertoire. While many scouts (and Fangraphs) ID’d his cutter as his #1 breaking ball, it’s always been hit and miss. I think I’ve always seen more of the latter than the former, and his overall stats show that he struggled to command the pitch. Thus, it’s not a huge shock that he’s scrapping it in favor of a true slider – taking a few MPH off, but getting more break and depth. To be clear: this isn’t about needing to improve against same-handed batters. He’s been great against them thus far. That said, a slider’s a good weapon against righties, and he’s still got his big curve and a developing split-change to use against lefties.
The line-up:
1: Jones, CF
2: Taylor, SS
3: Peterson, DH
4: Montero, 1B
5: Romero, LF
6: Rivero, 3B
7: Morban, RF
8: Hicks, C
9: Marte, 2B
SP: Walker
Baseball!
The Mariners Will Probably Win Between 65 And 100 Games
I played in a death metal band. People either loved us or they hated us, or they thought we were okay.
So much talk right now about expectations. It’s mostly because, hey, expectations. I mean, there are always expectations surrounding the Mariners in spring training, but this is the first time in a while said expectations have been strongly optimistic. I’ve seen multiple articles to the effect of, “despite expectations, McClendon believes team still needs to perform.” I very literally can’t think of a stupider premise, but at least that does tell you one thing — people expect the Mariners to be good. Like, possibly division-winning good.
It feels unfamiliar, and that isn’t just recency bias. This really is something new. And mostly coincidentally, I’ve spent the last couple days sifting through team projections from the past decade. It took some work to get all the numbers together, and there are a few issues with relying on various projections going back further and further into history, but the projections have never been nonsense. Even in 2005, they conveyed an idea of how teams were supposed to perform, and you know what they say about history? Well they say a lot of things about history. One is that we can learn from it.
Let’s learn from it. As of right now, Baseball Prospectus has the Mariners projected to win 87 games, based on PECOTA. FanGraphs has the Mariners projected to win 89 games, based on Steamer, and while we’re still waiting on ZiPS stuff to be uploaded, ZiPS is pretty much in agreement. Clay Davenport has the Mariners projected to win 86 games. The last I saw from Vegas, the Mariners’ over/under line has been set at 86.5 wins. The numbers have rolled in, and there are no remaining surprises. The Mariners project really well. People are excited! This is a potential champion that’s just gotten things started in Peoria.
Time to dive into history. On my spreadsheet, I can find 60 teams that have been projected for between 86 – 90 wins, since 2005. The average of their projections: 88 wins. Their actual, average performance: 88 wins. Look at that! It’s a dead match. That’s why people are excited — teams that look good tend to be good. More often than not, you can see the good teams coming, at least to a certain extent.
Yet all I’ve shown you are averages. Let’s look at those 60 teams again. By record, the best team wound up being the 2008 Angels, who won 100 games. And, by record, the worst team wound up being the 2009 Indians, who won 65 games. Those Indians were projected for 86 wins. Those Angels were projected for 88. In terms of the difference between actual wins and projected wins, one standard deviation for this pool of 60 teams is 8.2. Which is to say, the team projection is meaningful, and if the team actually wins a very different number of games, yeah, that happens sometimes. We think we know a lot. We do know a lot. We know a lot of what is knowable. By definition we can never know the unknowable, and it turns out performance = knowable + unknowable, in more or less equal parts.
To go back to an earlier point, it’s definitely a change to see the Mariners projected so well. Here are their projected win totals, since 2005:
- 2005: 82
- 2006: 81
- 2007: 76
- 2008: 77
- 2009: 78
- 2010: 81
- 2011: 74
- 2012: 75
- 2013: 73
- 2014: 82
- (2015: 86 – 90?)
This is the first time in a while the Mariners have been projected for more than 82 wins, which feels about right. The team has so much confidence it can almost be mistaken for having swagger. Maybe it does have swagger, I don’t know. I’m not an expert on swagger identification. But in 2005, the Mariners fell short of their projected win total by 13. In 2008, they fell short of their projected win total by 16. In 2010, they fell short of their projected win total by 20. 2005 was the year they newly had Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. 2008 was the year they newly had Erik Bedard. 2010 was the year they newly had Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins. The level of expectations is new, but we’ve had our hopes up before. The Mariners didn’t just shatter them; they shattered them and fed them to us, shattered bit by shattered bit. “Eat this. Eat this shattered bit of optimism.”
What we know is the team looks pretty good. It’s not just in our heads — it’s backed up by the numbers. What that means is the team will definitely be good, bad, or okay. It’s always easy to see the upside. It’s always easy to imagine good health and a breakthrough or two. It’s never so easy to recognize the downside. You don’t envision Chone Figgins losing 140 points of OPS. You don’t envision ankylosing spondylitis. Successful teams are all alike. Every lousy team is lousy in its own way.
I don’t mean to try to make you unhappy. I don’t mean to try to reduce your level of enthusiasm. The thing about spring is there’s enthusiasm everywhere, because you need to clear only a very low threshold in order to dream. If your team is projected to win 90 games, you’re thinking World Series. If your team is projected to win 80 games, you’re thinking World Series, if a thing or two go right. If your team is projected to win 70 games, you’re thinking playoffs, if a thing or two go right, and then what are the playoffs but four weeks of randomness? Everybody gets to dream in February. Just as there’s downside, there’s upside, and the Mariners could be even better than we think.
But, did you know they play baseball games, after all the projections are filed? I know. I’m scared, too. The bigger they are, the harder they fall, and we’ve all fallen enough that we’re covered in painful, unsightly bruises. I don’t want to fall again. I don’t want to fall, again. I feel like last year we just took a good step. The next step’s sure precarious.
Podcast: Everybody Suffers
All the AL West teams suffered, or continue to suffer, from bad stuff this past week. And Oakland and Houston are still located in Oakland and Houston. Come to think about it, Arlington and Anaheim kinda (or mostly) suck too. Man, Seattle is great.
Podcast with Jeff (@based_ball) and Matthew (@msea1): Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated. And thank you to our sponsor for this episode, TodayIFoundOut!
Jesus Montero Isn’t Just A Best-Shape Story
I’m not entirely sure where we stand on these at the moment. In the familiar history, players would show up at spring training and declare that they were fitter than ever. This happened often enough that people who cover players started to make fun of them for it, sometimes gently and sometimes not so much, with the message always being that, great, glad you look a little sexier, but nobody cares. What’s the current state, though? Especially with so many players reading material online. Are they sufficiently self-aware to avoid saying they’re in the best shape of their lives? Do they look for different ways to say it? Do we look for different ways to respond to it? These things are always evolving. Anything to squeeze something fresh from a hopelessly trite bowl of oranges.
Someone, somewhere, is still going to compile a list this spring training of players who say they’re in particularly great shape. The point will be to laugh about it. Jesus Montero is going to be on the list. Jesus Montero is in the best shape of his life. I don’t think that applies to any player more than it applies to Montero. So in a sense Montero is the new face of an annual cliche, but I don’t think we should be so cynical. There’s safety in cynicism — there’s comfort in remaining closed-minded — but I don’t think Jesus Montero’s is just another empty and purposeless spin of the best-shape carnival wheel.
And, this is really easy. David Freese might be in the best shape of his life. If that’s perhaps an exaggeration, Freese is at least supposed to be in better-than-usual shape. It’s an easy thing to shrug off, though. Why? Freese has never been in bad shape. Freese has always been a classically-built ballplayer, with strength for days, and no one’s ever looked at him and thought, “you could stand to do something with your body.” When Freese’s body has held him back, it’s been because of injuries. Some fractures, some consequences of hit-by-pitches, a busted ankle tendon. Being more fit won’t stop those things. You won’t look at Freese this year and think he’s a different player.
And maybe Jesus Montero won’t be a different player, but he’ll at least profile differently. His transformation is something sensational, because in the past, he hasn’t looked like a classically-built ballplayer. And he still doesn’t look like Yasiel Puig, but glance at a picture of Montero from this week and you’ll swear you see a damned athlete. The reason this matters is because Montero’s fitness was a legitimate problem. It was holding him back in virtually every way — it was bad for his running, it was bad for his fielding, it was bad for his swing, and it was bad for his confidence. We used to joke about Jose Lopez being out of shape. Jesus Montero was, totally honestly, badly out of shape. That was broadly evident a year ago, but it was a factor, too, the year before that. Montero says he’s back to 2011 weight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s moved beyond 2011 athleticism. The work he’s put in, he’s never put in before.
That’s the other part of this. One thing holding Montero back was his level of fitness. That reflected a pretty unprofessional lack of discipline. So not only could he not do certain things like he wanted to; he didn’t demonstrate much drive to get better. What’s the expression? Talent gets you to the majors, and heart keeps you there, or something like that? Talent got Jesus Montero to the majors. He didn’t put in the effort to stick.
Extended major-league careers are selective for those players who try hard enough. There’s some minimum determination threshold, and while it isn’t the same for every player, since some players are just naturally superior to others, literally everybody has to bust his ass to get to arbitration salaries or free agency. Montero never showed enough initiative. Now he’s coming off an offseason of working out I think literally every day, even on holidays, even on the big ones. Montero didn’t go home. He worked out. He didn’t stop working out. He conveyed that something clicked, or that something was at least in the process of clicking. I don’t want to go too far, but based on indications, I think now Jesus Montero might get it.
Again, it’s easy to snark. Montero’s the same guy who once said he spent the whole offseason eating, and lest you forget, that was only a year ago, and people grow only so much in a year. You can analyze the hell out of this, though. Montero’s around those ages when people start to learn something about real-world responsibilities. Montero’s coming off some of the most embarrassing seasons in recent Mariners history, and his own bosses ripped him in the media. And Montero recently had a child. His very own human child! There have been a lot of significant changes in Jesus Montero’s life. So it makes sense they could’ve driven him to make another. Do you know what it feels like to bottom out of 24? Actually, maybe you do, but I bet people never believed in you as much as they believed in Jesus Montero. I bet you’ve never let that many people down. Let that many people down, and a man has decisions to make.
Montero, the last few months, has made good decisions. To some extent the initial decision might’ve been made for him, by the organization, but Montero has elected to stick with the plan and show some real, actual discipline. Now he looks like a baseball player. Maybe he still won’t look much like a baseball player during organized, competitive baseball games, but if talent comes naturally, then Montero has cleared the path for the talent to show itself again. Unless things turn, his body won’t hold him back nearly as much. Unless things turn, his effort won’t hold him back nearly as much. All we’ve wanted to know is whether Jesus Montero is good enough to play for a while in the major leagues. Montero has taken steps toward letting us finally find out. As long as this keeps up, then if Jesus Montero fails, he’ll fail on account of his skills. Of the many ways to fail, that’s gotta be the best.
Podcast: We Ran Out of Topics at the End, Sorry!
Rickie Weeks, the rotation, some MLB win total over/unders and a whole lot of rambling got into this episode. Prepare, even moreso than usual, for off topic-ness.
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Let’s Now Give A Shit About Rickie Weeks
You’ll never believe this, but the Mariners just signed a former Brewer. The specific former Brewer in this case is Rickie Weeks, and his contract is worth money that doesn’t matter over the minimum number of years. In the worst-case scenario, Weeks is bad, and his salary gets in the way of the Mariners’ midseason flexibility. In the best-case scenario, Weeks performs and hits all his incentives, but then Weeks might only hit all his incentives if he plays a bunch, and if he plays a bunch it’s because something happened to Robinson Cano, so in at least this one way the Rickie Weeks best-case scenario is also among the Mariners’ worst-case scenarios. This is off to a good start.
Despite Weeks’ career Milwaukee-ness, this is a surprising move. You would’ve thought Weeks would go to one of those places that has a hole at second base. Instead he joined the team with literally the best second baseman, but then, to be honest, Weeks at this point isn’t really a second baseman anymore anyway. Now, just one year ago, Weeks refused to move off second to play another position, so that bodes poorly, but that’s also in the past, and I can’t imagine Weeks just signed with the Mariners voluntarily in the belief that he’ll stick to his spot. Maybe he really is that stupid, or maybe his agent really does have that little knowledge of the greater baseball landscape, but the probability points to Weeks now being a little more open-minded. People tend to be less stubborn when they’re increasingly desperate to put off irrelevance.
Because it’s a surprising move, it’s an interesting move. This one wasn’t telegraphed, this one wasn’t predictable, and this one wasn’t some minor-league contract with an invite to Peoria. In theory, Weeks can fit on this team. In theory, it’s simple. Many of us assumed the Mariners were finished changing things up, but — and you might want to sit down — they couldn’t pass up a chance to acquire a right-handed proven slugger with a history of bad defense and strikeouts.
Weeks was the second overall pick in 2003, and because of that he’s thought by many to be a career under-achiever. Just for the record, these were the picks around him:
- 1st: Delmon Young
- 3rd: Kyle Sleeth
- 4th: Tim Stauffer
- 5th: Chris Lubanski
- 6th: Ryan Harvey
Everything’s relative, and Weeks has had his moments and seasons in the sun. He started to hit in 2006, and through 2011, he was a fine all-around regular second baseman. He was a hell of a hitter through his peak; between 2009 – 2011, Weeks posted the same wRC+ as Victor Martinez and Andrew McCutchen. But then, in 2011, the Phillies were the best team in baseball. Things have changed. Weeks got worse, as players do. He started to get booed from time to time. Though his hitting numbers picked up last year, he was also heavily platooned, swinging the odds in his favor, and he lost his regular job to a fellow named Scooter. In addition to this, defensive metrics hate Weeks at second like they hate few other players.
Weeks is no longer an everyday player. Last year’s performance shows a change in his batted-ball profile, away from putting the ball in the air, but the safe assumption here is that Weeks should only really bat against lefties. Against righties, he can be exploited, and it’s not like he’s going to gain some runs back with his glove. Weeks goes to the bench as experienced insurance. So: what does that mean?
Weeks has literally only played second in the majors. He’s played second, occasional DH, and occasional pinch-hitter. In the minors, he played only second base. The Mariners, though, didn’t sign Weeks to just back up Robinson Cano. The bench, as I see it:
- Jesus Sucre, or maybe John Baker
- Willie Bloomquist
- Justin Ruggiano
- Rickie Weeks
The catchers are just catchers, and I don’t know if they even own their own bats. Bloomquist can play anywhere, or at least he could play anywhere, but now he’s coming off surgery, and I’ve heard some talk that he might not be ready for the start of the year. Ruggiano is the platoon partner for Seth Smith. That leaves Weeks as the last guy. That means no space for Jesus Montero. It means no space for James Jones, or the loser of the shortstop competition. Space would require a five-man bench, and that would require a six-man bullpen. You won’t see a six-man bullpen with a manager who’s fond of an eight-man bullpen.
The Weeks news isn’t yet confirmed, so we don’t have any quotes from the team. As such, we have to guess at his usage. I see a little bit of lots of things. A few games of giving Cano a breather. Maybe even a couple games at third. I think he picks up some games against lefties as a first baseman, and he might sneak in at DH once or twice. Weeks could also get reps in an outfield corner — Dustin Ackley is both left-handed and Dustin Ackley, so he’s not a lock to do anything, and as things stand Ackley is also the roster depth behind Austin Jackson. Jackson is also supported by James Jones, Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, and maybe Brad Miller, but those guys won’t start the year with Seattle. I guess Miller might, but that would be as a shortstop.
Weeks provides the Mariners with a little flexibility and a little bit of pop. Let’s say the roster stays as it is, and let’s say…Miller wins the job at short. Against righties, the Mariners could start six left-handed hitters. Against lefties, the Mariners could start five right-handed hitters. You can move your own numbers around if you figure the right-handed Chris Taylor beats Miller out. The point is the team has some built-in protection. And nothing is set in stone. Injury or under-performance means different players show up. If Montero beats the hell out of the ball in Tacoma, he’ll rise. You’ll see Gutierrez if he doesn’t accidentally fall in front of a bus. If Bloomquist is toast, Taylor and Miller could potentially co-exist. Weeks himself has a guaranteed contract, but a guaranteed contract just means you have guaranteed money, not a guaranteed roster spot. Weeks won’t last if he pulls a 2013. And as much as 2014 was encouraging, 2013 was the opposite, and just a year earlier.
When it’s February, you get more than a thousand words about a bench acquisition that teams with holes at second base didn’t want. Weeks has been a really good player before, but then Endy Chavez has been a really good player before, and if it’s perspective you want, the Mariners got Weeks for a year and $2 million. That’s less than half their guarantee an offseason ago to Willie Bloomquist. This isn’t like getting a pitch-framer for cheap, because it’s a market inefficiency. Rickie Weeks isn’t a market inefficiency. He’s just a guy who hits lefties sometimes, and he has a history that takes a little longer to thumb through than most. It’s for the best, for him, he’s moving on from Milwaukee. That doesn’t mean it’s also for the best for Seattle, but it’s not like the system was overflowing with quality candidates for the one spot remaining. Weeks is good enough to satisfy those who confuse activity for improvement, and he could even be better than that.
The upside, per usual, is that Weeks plays the hero in an exciting and extended playoff run. Maybe he delivers the sort of hit or two that make him an area legend. Every champion includes bit parts no one ever expected much from. The downside is that Weeks sucks, and sucks often enough and conspicuously enough that he gets booed in Safeco, too. We could hate him, and he could hate us. But that’s just the way it is with anyone. You have to give a chance to people. Don’t decide they suck before you know them; if they suck, that’s a tough thing to keep hidden.