Game 75, Mariners at Royals
Chris Young vs. Jason Vargas, 11:10 am
The press is celebrating the early game because it allows them to locate and ingest more barbecue. You could be celebrating it because it allows you to go outside to either barbecue or not. You should hike or something. Hiking is good exercise.
Today’s pitching match-up features two somewhat familiar quantities and if you were guessing that I might be stalling because I didn’t have anything to say about it, yeah. Jason Vargas on the mound for the Royals doesn’t mean much to those of us who have paid attention to some hundred odd starts of him from 2009 to 2012. This year is similar to last year in every aspect save that his strand rate has been about 4% higher, balls aren’t dropping in for him as much (- thirty points on BABIP), and he’s dropped half a walk per nine innings. Otherwise, he’s been Jason Vargas. Competent, kind of boring, sallow-looking. That he’s left-handed means we get to see things like John Buck, Cole Gillespie, Jesus Montero, and Stefen Romero, if you’re at all into seeing those things.
CF James Jones
LF Cole Gillespie
2B Robinson Cano
1B Logan Morrison
C John Buck
3B Kyle Seager
RF Stefen Romero
DH Jesus Montero
SS Rad Miller
Larry Stone points out that Miller is hitting .297/.352/.484 over his last ten, so that would be cool if he’s now figuring it out. It would be different from the kind of situation we’re accustomed to with Smoak and Ackley. I would prefer something different.
I would attempt to provide more content, but then I’d miss the start time. Your minor league probables: Carraway (Tacoma), Victor Sanchez (Jackson), Jochi Ogando (High Desert), Campbell (Clinton), Noel de la Cruz (Everett), and TBDs for everyone else. Nine games in action today. I do not miss having to spend my evening writing about all of them.
Game 74, Mariners at Royals
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. James Shields, 5:10 pm
Perhaps, disenchanted with the perpetual tightrope walk that is Erasmo Ramirez starts, you were wondering about the availability of one Taijuan Walker. To which, I must regrettably point out that in yesterday’s outing, young Mr. Walker gave up six earned in five innings, boosted by two dingers, though the K/BB was acceptable at 4/1.
We knock the Royals for the silliness of the “Trust the Process” cult, which few seem to buy into, but this year it appears to be paying dividends for them (bear in mind that Dayton Moore has been at the helm of the Royals for far longer than Jack Zduriencik has been in charge of the Mariners). They gave up Wil Myers, but James Shields has been worth more and the team leads the division ahead of the Tigers. But when your team’s hopes seem to hinge on Sabean-ing your way into contention now and then… well, I certainly feel my misgivings about rooting for these Mariners even when they’re good and I like baseball a lot more than I do other sports. By the way, the Moore and Sabean remarks are for those of you who think that it’s a given that Zduriencik is on a hot seat. It’s the same process that permits one to continue starting an over-the-hill hitter because he hit a dinger recently enough to remember it, so perhaps the problem is not so much the GM.
Shields has slightly reverse splits for his career, but this year has been slightly worse against left-handers, whom he’s always walked a bit more. ‘Kuma is ‘Kuma, whether you’re in the camp that calls him The Bear or you’re in the camp that tries to call him The Machine (note: cyborg bears are not a resolution to this or any other problem). He’s been pretty good against the Royals, but Shields isn’t so bad himself.
Tonight’s minor league news opens with me complaining that the Rainiers have two days in a row prioritized Justin Smoak and Xavier Nady over Ji-man Choi. Matt Palmer is on the mound for them tonight. In Jackson, Steve Landazuri makes only his second start since April, and back in April he looked like one of the better next-wave pitching prospects we might have. And Julio Morban has been activated from the DL. Will wonders never cease? Unsworth is going for High Desert, Huijer is pitching for a Clinton game in progress, Cleto tries to stop the skid against Tri-City, and Littell, an interesting late-rounder from last year, goes for Pulaski. We also have Arizona opening the season, which will mean first looks at Jackson, Morgan, Muhammad, and Gorgas, along with summer leaguers and rehab stints for various players we’ve been wondering about. Huzzah.
RF Endy Chavez
CF James Jones
2B Robinson Cano
DH Kyle Seager
1B Logan Morrison
LF Dustin Ackley
C Mike Zunino
SS Rad Miller
3B Willie Boom Boom
Game 73, Mariners at Padres
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Jesse Hahn, 3:40 pm
I don’t really want to talk about last night’s game any more than the rest of you might. The excitement that I gain from the Mariners being over .500 and still competitive this late is too often negated by their inability to get Felix his wins.
I didn’t expect to be writing about Erasmo Ramirez still, after all these starts by Walker in Tacoma, but perhaps the Padres writers in the rival bizarro version of our universe didn’t expect to be writing about Hahn either, being their guy who vaulted from double-A to the majors. Hahn is one of an increasing number of drafted players who had TJ before or just after turning pro. He’s got the two varieties of fastball, which can touch in the mid-to-high 90s if he puts all he has into it, and he’s got a curve and a change-up as well. He gets to face off against our lefty-heavy lineup plus John Buck as the designated Erasmo catcher.
Hahn is not a pitcher for whom we have a lot of data at the moment (9.2 innings in the majors thus far), but in his time here we’ve seen groundballs, Ks, and also walks and dingers. FIP basically hates him. In the minor leagues he was extremely not-dinger-prone, had an easier time hitting his spots, and didn’t strike out so many. My knee-jerk reaction from seeing the Mariners face unknown pitchers for some years now is to throw a hooded robe on and go wandering about muttering “doom” and other punchy Anglo-Saxon-derived monosyllabics.
Today in the minor leagues, we have possible Erasmo replacement Taijuan Walker starting again. No, I don’t have a Charlie Furbush replacement to talk about (Luetge isn’t worth the exchange, I think). Tyler Olson goes in Jackson, Scott DeCecco is in High Desert, some TBD in Clinton, Blake Holovach in Everett, and now Pulaski is opening up their season. I don’t have a lot to say about them as the roster typically has high-end summer league prospects and everyone else who was drafted in the later rounds, so it’s not a roster one ever has a good gauge on, before or sometimes after. Most of these games are now in session after the all-star breaks of the respective leagues, so this is as good a time as any to mention that Austin Wilson, who was hitting .300/.380/.527 at the time, was not selected to his league’s team which is some real BS. He should at least be in the Cal League soon.
RF Endy Chavez
CF James Jones
2B Robinson Cano
3B Kyle Seager
1B Logan Morrison
C John Buck
LF Dustin Ackley
SS Rad Miller
RHP Erasmo Ramirez
Go ‘Ners.
Game 72, Mariners at Padres
Felix Hernandez vs. Andrew Cashner, 7:10 pm
After the last Felix outing and how it ended, a lot of us would prefer an easier outing so that we can just get Felix a win because oh god, we’re sorry, we’re so sorry. This is not such an outing. The sentimental aspect of the Tony Gwynn tribute is a factor, certainly, but then the M’s also get to face Andrew Cashner. Cashner is worth less than half what Felix is worth in WAR, but he’s had a fine year, adding roughly a K per inning over last year and halving his home run rate. His fastball has been as good as it’s ever been, but he’s been throwing the change-up less often and has twice the isolated slugging against lefties as he’s had against righties. Take a guess at what the lineup looks like? Do not proceed until you finish guessing.
RF Endy Chavez
CF James Jones
2B Robinson Cano
3B Kyle Seager
1B Logan Morrison
C Mike Zunino
LF Dustin Ackley
SS Brad Miller
RHP Felix Hernandez
Maybe Felix taught himself to bat left-handed since the last time we saw him hit. Who knows? He probably didn’t.
Moving on to minor league news, there’s this:
No. 6 overall pick Alex Jackson agrees to terms w/@Mariners. Trying to pin down exact $ (north of $4 mil). Pick value = $3,575,900 @MLBDraft
— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) June 18, 2014
Since he signed well before the deadline, I would expect him to be in Everett later this year, though reports are that he’s heading to Peoria, which starts up Friday. There’s also other stuff, like Smoak starting his rehab tonight for Tacoma, and Hart and Saunders joining later in the week. I’m opposed to any scenario that might take away at-bats from Ji-man Choi though. They’d better not.
Game 71, Padres at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Eric Stults, 12:40 pm
What, I knew who Elias was before the season. I didn’t know Eric Stults, but he’s a National League guy, so I don’t expect to know who he is. He’s been in the majors off and on since 2006 and has cracked 100 innings once in the majors by more than 100 innings. Stults does not have good stuff. His fastball is below average, so he throws it only half the time, throws the change a quarter of the time, and then split the rest between breaking balls. He tries to get guys to chase and sometimes it works. He’s never been good before, but on the other hand, Mariners? That Stults is a left-hander means we get a new and wacky lineup.
CF James Jones
RF Stefen Romero
2B Robinson Cano
DH John Buck (CLEAN-UP HITTER)
3B Kyle Seager
C Mike Zunino
LF Cole Gillespie
1B Jesus “Never An option At First” Montero
SS Brad Miller
Those of you near televisions or secretly watching streams have an opportunity to watch Jesus Montero defend, you lucky dogs. I imagine that Lloyd’s recent willingness to screw around and let Buck and Zunino bat in the same lineup is partially because Montero could technically serve as our emergency catcher. If it wasn’t him before, I guess Bloomquist? It’s one of the reasons why I’ve missed having Carter Capps around, says the guy who occasionally thinks about who the Mariners emergency catcher might be.
Speaking of roster construction, now that I look at the Padres as a team, this is sort of a who’s who of guys I wasn’t aware were on the Padres. Former first-round picks Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy! Former high-end closers Huston Street and Joaquin Benoit! Rene Rivera! Former elite prospect Cameron Maybin who has really only been good a few times in his career (and has been there for years)! For being the Padres, they sure seem to have a Mariners-looking roster construction.
Today is the anniversary of Dustin Ackley’s debut. Think about that. Or don’t think about it. But because I mentioned it, your brain is doing it anyway. I’m in control now.
Game 70, Padres at Mariners
Chris Young vs. Tyson Ross, 7:10 pm
The last time we saw Tyson Ross was in relief on May 27th of last year, but we also saw him plenty before that as a member of the A’s. He’s the best player involved in that weird A’s/Padres trade in which he was sent with A.J. Kirby-Jones in exchange for Andy Parrino (55 career OPS+) and Andrew Werner (0.3 WAR over 40.1 innings in 2012, hasn’t pitched in the majors since). Proof that even Beane can make a stinker of a trade every now and then.
Ross’ new thing this year is that his groundball rate is higher than ever at 61.1%. He’s also had his HR/FB higher than ever because groundball pitchers tend to miss up and so it goes. He’s the same fastball/slider guy that he’s ever been except that the two-seam is back now after last year’s hiatus.
The radio was trying to play this up as a big deal, referring to the Padres as “pesky,” when the Mariners have a 47-43 record against them all time, a better winning percentage than they have facing most teams. They were also trying play up that this is the first time Chris Young has faced his former team. Sure, that’s a narrative, but I don’t think that many people are all that invested in how High Mariner feels about facing the hated Padres for the first time. This isn’t Cano returning to the Bronx territory. One might say that it’s good that Young is pitching at home during this split series, but Petco plays like Safeco anyway so who cares. This is a game being played between two baseball teams. There doesn’t need to be a narrative going in.
Let’s talk about other things. Like how yesterday we played John Buck at first where he had never played professionally before. About how Lloyd said that he was the only option because Ackley was needed in left and I may be the only person who remembers that James Jones has nineteen minor league starts at first (I thought it was more!). About how Jesus Montero appears to never be an option as anything but a DH. About forfeiting that same DH, to get Cano back on the field, so that Jesus Montero does not need to be on the field.
Also, LoMo is back after accidentally injuring himself by transforming his bat into spinning wooden death fragments. When will players learn how unwise it is to take things out on inanimate objects? LoMo got lucky this time, but Tyler O’Neill gets to sit ten weeks for punching a wall and he’s hardly the first. I don’t know why this organization doesn’t do more to instill fear/respect of inanimate objects in their players.
RF Endy Chavez
CF James Jones
2B Robinson Cano
3B Kyle Seager
DH Jesus Montero
1B Logan Morrison
C Mike Zunino
LF Dustin Ackley
SS Brad Miller
Go ‘Ners!
Podcast: Mariners’ Train Stalls
Monday morning podcast(s) continues/begins.
Tony Gwynn 🙁
Is not covered in the podcast, but obviously is very sad news. The podcast is Mariners-stuff as usual. We found ourselves surprisingly chipper given the past week. I suppose the Sunday result inordinately affects our podcasting mood.
Podcast with Jeff and Matthew: Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner work in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated.
Game 69, Rangers at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Nick Martinez, 1:10 pm
RF Endy Chavez
CF James Jones
DH Robinson Cano
1B Logan Morrison
3B Kyle Seager
C Mike Zunino
LF Dustin Ackley
2B Willie Bloomquist
SS Brad Miller
Perhaps you didn’t get enough Bloomquist or Endy Chavez last night.
Nick Martinez is another mysterious late-round pick (18th round, 2011) who is now starting for the Rangers. You know who else was an 18th-round pick? Anthony Vasquez. Martinez is somewhat new to the pitching thing after being mostly a shortstop in college. After years in the minor leagues, he worked some things out and ended up throwing in the low-to-mid-90s with a curve ball and a change. This year, he’s gone pretty heavily in the direction of flyball outs and the odds aren’t bad that he’ll leave one high enough to knock out of the park. Of course, whether it’s weather conditions or merely not good baseball players, we haven’t succeeded in doing that much over the recent games.
I don’t really feel like dwelling too much on this game or yesterday’s game or Mariners! so I’ll make note of some minor league news. Ji-man Choi is back in Tacoma, taking over Montero’s spot, and he’s joined by right-handed pitcher and fringe bullpen candidate Stephen Kohlscheen. Logan Bawcom went to the DL to make that spot available. Taijaun Walker had a no-hit bid last night and I would guess that he provides a more appealing option than seeing how many walks Erasmo can give up without allowing a run (the strike zone was a little wonky last night from my vantage and Erasmo seemed to be pitching well by his own standards). McClendon has suggested that Smoak, Hart, and Saunders could all rehab by the end of this week, so, that’s a thing that may happen.
Today in minor league baseball match-ups, we have Forrest Snow starting for Tacoma in Nashville, the sort-of-disappointing overslept sleeper Trevor Miller pitching for Jackson against name-rivals Jacksonville, High Desert has the day off, the pitching Jose Flores we still have starting for Clinton in Peoria, and Ramire Cleto will take the mound for Everett in the lone evening game, pitted against the Hillsboro Hops, the only known competitor to the Montgomery Biscuits for best team name.
Happy Father’s Day.
Game 68, Rangers at Mariners
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Joe Saunders, 7:10 pm
It’s hard to imagine having anything to say about this particular matchup. Saunders is Saunders. You saw him last year, perhaps too often. He pitches well in Safeco. We could be in trouble. Erasmo Ramirez is familiar with trouble. He’s given up dingers this year, he’s given up walks. Look at the big rates of K/9, BB/9, HR/9, BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB, everything’s increasing. This has been your afternoon summary of Fangraphs.
There’s not much you see off physically from Erasmo over his parts of three years in the majors. Stuff remains roughly the same, mile off a fastball, mile onto the slider, a couple miles added to the curve and one more off the change-up. You feel like this is within the margin of error for velocity. But the whole package has been terrible and the individual pitches have been terrible, except for the change-up, which has been not terrible, but not especially good either. For all the talk of in spring training, how McClendon wanted Erasmo to not live in the zone as much and to make quality pitches outside of it, his O-Swing% is at an all time low and for the first time, below league average.
I’ve thought about Erasmo lately probably more than I’d recommend and it seems like there is a line to be drawn between physically and psychologically off. I don’t know where he falls on it either. I’ve thought with the perceived loss of command, the elbow could be wrong in some way he isn’t telling the team staff. When I think about such scenarios, it seems possible to physically force your way through something like that. Plenty of hikes, I’ve come to the end wobbly and dragged myself to a resting spot. It seems like people who do these things, these physical acts in exchange for paychecks, might also push themselves to that limit or well beyond the point where the rest of us tucker out.
Of course, I’ve also thought that because I force myself to get to the end of that hike, the summit or just an appropriate vantage plateau, that forcing yourself to do something physical is easier in some ways. The body is after all just a body, and you’ll probably regret it until the pain goes away, but so be it [I have the luxury of saying such things as a younger man, who despite this has been dealing with a stress fracture for over a year]. Much easier than say, writing, where it’s harder to power your way through because inevitably you have results to account for and no one likes to throw away work. You could spend hours at it and get nothing, or reach the apex of your present powers only to discover later that even that in and of itself was not very good and the whole project ought to be abandoned or re-appropriated bit by bit. As this happens, and the work frustrates, and inspiration is wandering far fields, it can be harder to sit down and do it. But what about when the results you care about are the physical acts? Now things start to blur. I can care less about the results of hiking or what have you because my livelihood and my sense of self-worth aren’t contingent on it. If they were, I would be talking about it very differently.
Erasmo Ramirez is a pitcher at the highest level. He hasn’t been able to execute on things that he’s been able to do much of his adult life. He’s been told to try different things. These haven’t succeeded. He’s presumably tried other things in response. Is he blocking? Is he too damaged physically to do what he’s supposed to be doing? Was he never all that good to begin with, or does he lack whatever external factor that separates those with talent from those with craft? I don’t know that it’s any one thing right now, but it always just ends up as a combination of variables anyway, some bigger than others.
I’ll be at the game tonight because my dad and stepmom like to buy me tickets once a year and it usually falls on a bad pitching match-up. So I’ll be sitting there, watching a pitcher make some good and some bad pitches, and be thinking about life and the fact that Erasmo Ramirez could be a metaphor and also definitely is a real person. Not like that Jesus Montero guy. Go ‘Ners.
CF James Jones
LF Cole Gillespie
2B Robinson Cano
DH Jesus Montero
1B Logan Morrison
C John Buck
3B Kyle Seager
RF Stefen Romero
SS Willie Bloomquist
The Mariners And Jason Hammel
Lately, a couple things have been plainly obvious. One, the Mariners are still very much alive in the playoff race. Two, the Mariners could badly use some help. With that in mind, a note of interest, from Gordon Wittenmyer:
Sources say the Cubs already have had trade talks with multiple teams regarding Samardzija and right-hander Jason Hammel. The Braves, Mariners and Blue Jays are among the most interested, with one source suggesting offers already have been made by at least two teams.
And one major-league source said he expects Hammel to end up in Seattle.
At first look, Hammel is a curious target. He’s a career .115 hitter, with only one home run, and he hasn’t played the outfield or infield professionally. Back in high school, he almost opted to play soccer, so it’s not like he has a track record anywhere of being a successful position player. But at 6’6, 225, he definitely has the frame of a guy who can swing with real leverage, so maybe this would be a scouting move.
Yeah, so, Jason Hammel isn’t a hitter. The Mariners have been most hard up for hitters. Hammel’s a starting pitcher, and the Mariners have been okay in that department. The natural initial response is, “THIS ISN’T ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM, MORONS.” But, it would address the problem of the Mariners not having enough talent. And also, turns out teams aren’t limited to making only one move. The market, right now, has pitching available. Not so much hitting. With the second wild card, there aren’t many teams behaving like they’re out of the race. Those who are out of the race aren’t dealing with a surplus of bats. You can only acquire that which is made acquirable.
Some things about Hammel: he’s 31. Right-handed. One-year contract, modest salary. Went to high school in Port Orchard! But he’s five years younger than Willie Ballgame. He’s had a pretty good year to date. Some rankings:
ERA-: 16th out of 99 qualified starters
FIP-: 20th
xFIP-: 37th
Hammel, this year, has been good. Hammel, last year, was bad. Hammel, the year before, was good. The rest of the way, Jason Hammel should be either good or bad, or okay.
Something I didn’t know is the Mariners actually drafted Hammel in 2000. He didn’t sign, but the players who did sign went on to accomplish fuck-all. All the players the Mariners drafted that year have combined to post 8.7 major-league WAR. Of that, Jason Hammel is individually responsible for 8.7 major-league WAR. In the 34th round, the Mariners drafted a right-handed high-school pitcher named Chris Way. In the 35th round, the Mariners drafted a different right-handed high-school pitcher named Chris Way. On that basis it seems evident the baseball draft needn’t continue beyond the 33rd round.
The idea behind adding a pitcher would be this: simply, you can never have enough starting pitching. Really, I kind of embrace the idea, because the Mariners could act like they’re comfortable if they wanted to. Felix and Iwakuma, obviously, are good. Elias has been a surprise and Young has maintained a low ERA, and Walker is close while Paxton is back to throwing. The Mariners could try to justify standing pat, but, think about it. Right now they’re starting Erasmo Ramirez, and they don’t want to be doing that. Elias, professionally, hasn’t exceeded 148 innings, and Young’s ERA is at least to some extent a mirage. Walker’s been close before, and he has yet to appear this season. Paxton recently had a setback in his shoulder. If you don’t think there’s room for a starting pitcher, you are the most positive-thinking person in the world, and the most positive-thinking person in the world wouldn’t root for the Mariners, so you don’t exist. Obviously, Hammel could fit. He’d presumably help. In the best-case scenario of having too many good starters, the Mariners could nervously wring their hands all the way into October.
But what would an addition like Hammel cost? Remember, one-year contract, with an inconsistent track record. Helpfully, the Cubs have done this before. A year ago, the Cubs exchanged Scott Feldman for Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, and some international spending money. The year before, the Cubs exchanged Paul Maholm for Jaye Chapman and Arodys Vizcaino. In both instances, the pitchers were accompanied by role players, but this conveys the idea. Arrieta was a talented project. Vizcaino was a talented project. The Cubs targeted former good pitching prospects who’d lost some of their sheen. What would that look like, here? Erasmo Ramirez? Brandon Maurer? Danny Hultzen? Maybe the Cubs would look for something else, but Hammel would cost something of possible long-term value. When you sell a guy like Jason Hammel, you can get something you actually want, beyond salary relief.
Perhaps the bigger question is this: should the Mariners even be in the market for upgrades? Should the Mariners even think about giving up long-term value for shorter-term value? They have about a 4-5% chance of winning the division. They’re within a couple games of the wild card, but even the Astros are only 5.5 back. The wild card plays a one-game playoff, meaning it could be one and done. No matter how you play with the numbers, the Mariners are more likely to miss the playoffs than they are to make them. How much do you give up to improve that kind of team, given that realistic improvements can’t adjust the odds all that significantly?
It’s not the kind of question that’s easy to answer with numbers. On the one hand, the Mariners aren’t very good. On the other hand, you don’t have to be very good to win the wild card, and the Mariners are in that sweet spot, or thereabouts, on the win curve, where additional wins have tremendous value. So there are different ways to argue this. Based purely on feel, the Mariners shouldn’t sell out to make a major splash, like David Price or Jeff Samardzija. But with more minor parts, right now I’m okay with the idea of losing potential future help. I could probably rationalize a Jason Hammel trade package. I’d have more difficulty rationalizing a Jon Lester or James Shields trade package. Assuming, of course, the returns would be wildly different.
In theory, things could pick up soon — the Cubs moved Feldman last year on July 2. It’s exciting to have the Mariners relevant, and it’s exciting to be able to think about midseason upgrades. It’s also positively terrifying, but it’s a new and unfamiliar kind of terror, and, whatever gets your heart racing, right? If the Mariners wanted to make this easy on themselves, they could extend this current losing streak. So, that’s one option. It’s not the best option for the long-term, maybe.