Game 51, Padres at Mariners
Aaron Harang (for now) vs. Clayton Richard, 1:10pm
The new, hopefully improved, Mariners take on their natural rivals in a 1:10 Memorial Day start. As I mentioned in the previous post, the Franklin-for-Ackley swap wasn’t the only move; the M’s also optioned Lucas Luetge to AAA to make room for Hector Noesi. This makes a ton of sense, as the M’s played 13 innings yesterday and the bullpen had to deal with abbreviated starts a few times in the past week, so getting a long-man in the bullpen (especially with Harang on the mound) sounds like a good plan.
The M’s face the Padres, who started slowly and currently sit in 4th in the tight NL West. Like the M’s, the Pads moved in the fences in their pitcher-friendly park, and like the M’s, the results have been mixed. The Padres have the 18th best wOBA in baseball (the M’s are at #21), and they’ve moved up from the bottom five in home HRs to about 20th (the Pads are #19, the M’s #21). Both teams were solidly below 4 runs per game at home in 2012, and as both have boosted their average R/G at home, both have winning records at home thus far. But both teams are absolutely lost on the road, as their home parks may still obscure just how bad the backs of their rotations are. It’s early yet, and it’ll be fun to check back in on the teams at the end of the year. While it initially seemed like the M’s wouldn’t actually score more despite the changes, at this point both teams seem to have boosted their raw offensive totals, and that may help them attract more free agents down the road. Neither park is suddenly hitter-friendly, but both seem more fair. The M’s get to visit the new Petco in a few days.
Clayton Richard is a lefty groundballer who’s had every bit as bad of a season as Aaron Harang. Richard’s always been a pitch-to-contact guy, but he’s been giving up home runs at a Harang-in-Texas pace, which has led to a FIP around 7 and a half, and an ERA a run worse than that. Richard’s fastball velocity is down over a full MPH from where it was last year, and batters have feasted on fastballs this season – especially the occasional four-seamer. He’s primarily a sinker/slider guy, but he also throws the aforementioned four-seamer and a change-up that he reserves for righties. Neither the change nor his cutter is particurlarly good at generating whiffs, so he’s had large platoon splits and bad numbers against righties his whole career. This season, of course, his numbers are terrible against everyone, but this is a good game to get Bay, Shoppach and the other lefty-mashers in the line-up.
Line-up:
1: Bay, LF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, 1B
4: Morse, RF
5: Ibanez, DH
6: Shoppach, C
7: Chavez, CF
8: Triunfel, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Harang
Oookay, that’s not exactly a lefty-killer line-up with Ibanez DHing and Endy Chavez in CF, but all of the roster moves and injuries mean the M’s aren’t really able to mix and match like they could.
The M’s still need to make a 40-man roster move to get Nick Franklin on to the active roster; Francisco Martinez is a good guess, though he’s in Jackson’s line-up today (as is Vinnie Catricala). They could also move someone (Hultzen or Erasmo Ramirez) to the 60-day DL retroactively.
All of the changes mean Tacoma’s going with a bullpen day against Reno – Johnathan Arias gets the start, but I’d bet on several innings from Brian Sweeney. Franklin Gutierrez’s rehab work continues; he’s eligible to come off any time, but the M’s are going to take it slow. He hit his first XBH for the Rainiers two days ago, but in 10 games, he’s put up a line of .167/.222/.238.
Welcome to the Show, Nick Franklin
The rumors began last night, but it wasn’t until this morning when the players arrived at the stadium that the beat writers could confirm them. Dustin Ackley’s been sent down, and in his place is Nick Franklin. There are other moves as well, including the recall of Hector Noesi, but the story of the day is the promotion of the 22-year old middle infielder, who was hitting .324/.440/.472 in AAA. Ackley’s season line had dipped to .204/.266/.250, and his career line is now down to .237/.307/.344. People may point to his solid fielding stats and positive WAR numbers to show that he was still adding value, but the downward trajectory of his offensive stats and the questionable reliability of his fielding numbers make this move a good one.
Franklin’s had a remarkable year. I saw him several times last season, and while he’d flash some good tools, it was clear he wasn’t ready for the next step due to below-average contact skills. In his first month in AAA, he struck out in over 30% of his plate appearances. While he cut back on his Ks substantially during the season, contact had always been Franklin’s weakest tool. His best is probably his work ethic though, and putting in extra hours in the cage seems to have paid off. In 2013, he’s walked more than he’s K’d, and his K% is below 12%.
He’s likely to struggle a bit against left-handed pitching initially, but the timing works here. He can stick at 2B and not worry about improving his range at SS on the big stage. He appeared to be something of a slow starter at AAA, so it’s unlikely he’ll make an immediate splash, but I think his new-and-improved eye might help him add some value initially. Good luck.
Game 50, Rangers at Mariners
Iwakuma vs. Tepesch, 1:10pm
The M’s have lost 8 in a row, including two sub-par starts from their ace. A long losing streak is, by its nature, deflating, but there’s a compounding effect when it’s paired with a struggling Felix. We don’t ask for much. I’d venture to say that at this point, we don’t need watchable games every time out; we know the risks of sitting down to watch an Aaron Harang start. But games like yesterday’s upset the bargain that I’ve briefly described/just made up, and it makes feeling confident about today’s game, or about Michael Saunders, or about 2014, or feeling anything, that much harder.
Hisashi Iwakuma will try to bounce back from his worst start of the year, and Nick Tepesch tries to put a finger injury behind him and continue his subtly effective rookie season.
Tepesch gets a lot of grounders despite throwing a fair number of straight four-seam FBs because he gets so many grounders off of his primary breaking ball, the cutter. He mixes in a sinker, a curve and the occasional change, but he’s been effective this year in large part because of that cutter. Just as many GBs as his sinker, but a ton more whiffs. It’s helped him bump his K% up over 16%, so he’s not a Derek Lowe clone. He’s had some HR troubles, particularly against lefties, but he doesn’t seem like someone who’ll run high platoon splits consistently.
Line-up:
1: Chavez, RF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, 1B
5: Morse, RF
6: Saunders, CF
7: Ackley, 2B
8: Sucre, C
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Iwakuma
Taijuan Walker starts today for AA Jackson, and Hector Noesi starts for Tacoma.
Smoak’s oblique injury keeps him out of the line-up today, but it’s apparently not as serious as they thought last night.
Game 49, Rangers at Mariners
King Felix vs. Derek Holland, 7:10pm
Maybe the M’s will fare better against a lefty; they’re 12-21 against righty starters on the year, as Michael Morse has struggled and Shoppach’s early season success waned.
Maybe Felix can stop the skid with a dominating performance on his bobblehead day. He nuked the Rangers last year at the USSM/LL night, and today’s the Baseball Prospectus event at Safeco (maybe he likes statheads?).
Maybe Brendan Ryan’s hot streak balances the line up and helps them wring more runs from a given number of base runners.
Maybe watching Felix can help make watching the M’s fun again, as we revel in the Royal Changeup and drink up, as life is short and pitching rotations are shorter. In a few days, we’ll deal with Harang and Saunders, so it’s best to consciously take what joy the team allots us.
Maybe the M’s beat up on Holland and score 21 like they did last year. Sure, that was in Arlington, and to date Holland’s been much better in 2013 than he was in 2012, but hey, they scored 21 in a game started by Holland once. He’s probably thinking about that right now.
Maybe Michael Saunders stops guessing/pressing/trying to do too much/still feeling the effects of his injuries/whatever explanation you prefer and starts hitting again.
Maybe the M’s get to the Rangers bullpen and exploit Joe Ortiz and Tanner Scheppers, two pitchers I’ve selected randomly.
Maybe we all remember why we say ‘Happy Felix Day.’
Line-up:
1: Bay, LF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morse, RF
4: Morales, DH
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Saunders, CF
7: Shoppach, C
8: Triunfel, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: El Cartelua
Maybe Dustin Ackley can remember he’s so much more than a platoon player and…awww crap.
An Absolute Joke
People have been fired for far less and deserved it. This isn’t even funny anymore.
You’re dying, baseball. Clean yourself up or at least pretend like you’re interested in trying.
Game 48, Rangers at Mariners
Joe Saunders vs. Justin Grimm, 7:10pm
Another day, another roster move for the M’s, though it certainly sounds like that wasn’t the plan this morning. In any event, the M’s DFA’d Andino and brought up Carlos Triunfel. The latter isn’t in the line-up tonight, but C Jesus Sucre is. From what I’ve seen of him in Tacoma, he’s a good receiver, has a cannon of an arm, but I think the M’s really love the way he calls a game. This again is one of the aspects of catching that’s somewhat difficult to measure (though Max Marchi’s WOWY study gets at it), and it’ll be interesting to see how they talk about him, particularly if he doesn’t hit (he’s not likely to hit).
Justin Grimm’s facing Seattle for the third time. He’s still primarily a fastball-curve pitcher, but he throws a change-up to lefties on occasion. He’s got reverse platoon-splits in his brief MLB time this year, and he actually had similar splits in the minors as well. That’s still not much of a sample, but this is not a guy that you absolutely need to stack lefties against. The M’s have chosen to stack their lefties against him, however. After the Ibanez experience in New York, I’m not going to mock them, but I’ll say that Ackley hitting 2nd is questionable no matter who the opposing starter is. Joe Saunders, of course, has massive splits, and the Rangers are fairly well-positioned to exploit that, though of course Saunders dominated them in Safeco in early April. Moreland moves up to 2nd in the Rangers order, the result of a blistering May.
Texas uberprospect Jurickson Profar is up with the Rangers, taking the spot of the injured Ian Kinsler. Profar’s a natural SS, but will play 2B today. While insanely talented, he’s just 20 and is, in the very short run, unlikely to fully replace Kinsler’s 110+ rest-of-season wRC+, but he is another example of the Rangers depth and player development prowess. Damn it. Neither the M’s nor the Rangers have fared terribly well with injuries this year; Rangers prospect Mike Olt is just now resuming training in extended spring training following a vision problem, Cody Buckel was shut down after walking 28 in 9+ innings, and the M’s lost Danny Hultzen and Erasmo Ramirez to arm trouble. But the Rangers have been able to patch together serviceable (or better) stints from pitchers like Grimm, Nick Tepesch and Michael Kirkman while the M’s have watched Saunders, Beavan, Harang and Maurer all post negative WAR.
On paper, this is a mismatch. The Rangers are really, really good and the M’s are reeling. But just as the M’s looked better than they actually were after knocking off the Yankees, they are clearly not as inept as they appeared in Anaheim or as cursed as they appeared in Cleveland. They’re still not good, but the M’s can lower everyone’s blood pressure with a good showing against a very good team in this series.
Line-up:
1: Saunders, CF
2: Ackley, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Morse, RF
6: Ibanez, LF
7: Smoak, 1B
8: Sucre, C
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Saunders
The M’s have turned over the in-stadium music to M’s beat-writer Ryan Divish of the News Tribune. His knowledge of early-90s hip-hop is the equal of Keith Law’s, so I’d expect we’d hear some Tribe and Wu-Tang Clan tonight.
James Paxton starts tonight in the pitching hell of Reno, NV. With Jeremy Bonderman crashing and burning last night (he’s got one more start, in Colorado Springs, before his opt-out date on 6/1) and Harang and Maurer scuffling, this would be a good time for Paxton to show he can work deep into games. Dylan Unsworth takes the hill for Clinton.
Carlos Triunfel -> Seattle, Robert Andino -> Outright Waivers
Quick post here, but as first mentioned (at least that I saw) by Dave, the M’s waived IF Robert Andino today. They needed to make a 40-man roster move to bring Jesus Sucre up, so now the 40-man has the correct number of men enumerated. The move also left the M’s an infielder short, so there was some speculation that the M’s may bring up Nick Franklin or, less likely, Tacoma utility man Nate Tenbrink. Either of those two would require yet another 40-man move, and the M’s evidently decided they’d had enough for the day. Carlos Triunfel was already on the 40-man, and can play SS, unlike Tenbrink and kinda-sorta unlike Franklin.
Triunfel had just flown with the Rainiers to Reno, and, upon landing, was instructed to get on the next plane back to Seattle. Odd morning, but I doubt he minds too much. The 23-year old was having a fine campaign in the PCL, though of course he started well last year before going on a several-month slump in the middle of the season. He’s hitting .300/.351/.476, showing more power than he has in his MiLB career. He’s hitting righties better than he has in years, and hasn’t made quite as many unforced errors in the field. His greatest tool is still his 70-75 grade arm, which hasn’t always been paired with 50-grade accuracy. Still, he opened some eyes this spring with solid play at 2B/SS, and obviously got his feet wet with the M’s last September. It’s a nice low-risk, medium-reward sort of a move.
We’ll see if he’s in the line-up tonight or if he’s eligible to come off the bench, the way Jesus Montero did for Tacoma last night. Robert Andino has positional flexibility and a great back-story, so here’s hoping he lands with another team, but I don’t think any M’s fan is sad to see the Andino Era come to a close.
Bloodied Mariners Confront Strutting Rangers
| MARINERS (20-27) | ΔMs | RANGERS (30-17) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -8.9 (20th) | -3.3 | 8.5 (10th) | Rangers |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -5.9 (19th) | -8.2 | 13.0 (5th) | Rangers |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 8.8 (9th) | -3.2 | 21.5 (4th) | Rangers |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 4.6 (9th) | -1.0 | -0.2 (16th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | -1.4 (16th) | -14.7 | 42.8 (3rd) | RANGERS |
That was a two game series! A two game series and look what it wrought above. That was the Mariners team I feared coming into this season. It was some mediocre pitching but that’s not unexpected given it was the back end of the rotation. It was some mediocre hitting but that’s not unexpected given that I thought our offense was mediocre.
It was horrendous, absolutely horrendous defense and that was my, and a lot of other people’s, big worry. The Mariners definitely traded away some defensive prowess this winter, ostensibly for enough offense to make it a net benefit. Many of us thought it wasn’t enough. It’s looking like it wasn’t enough.
The 2013 Mariners aren’t making the playoffs. I’m pretty confident in that assumption. I never held out hope for that. I did hold out some hope for fake contention, the sort where the team hangs around .500 all summer to at least keep some interest alive as I bide my time waiting for the Seahawks to resume domination of their league. This series against the Rangers seems poised to KO the chances of that quasi-contention as it’s easy to see the Mariners down to 8 or 10 games below the .500 mark by the end. Luckily though, after these three games comes 10 contests versus other losing teams (Padres, Twins, White Sox), so the Mariners might be able to prop themselves back up again.
The One Part I Don’t Understand
Absolutely, Jesus Montero has been disappointing. He’s had his flashes, but he hasn’t developed, and he isn’t making visible progress. He hasn’t been much to speak of — at least fondly — behind the plate, and it makes sense that Montero’s defensive efforts might’ve been hampering the offense. I’m on board with sending Montero to Tacoma, to work on things against inferior competition. I’m on board with knocking Montero away from catching, to free up additional concentration and practice time. I would’ve preferred that things never get here, but Montero wouldn’t be the first guy to start hitting after abandoning the backstop position. He’s 23, and 14 months ago he was one of the most highly thought of young hitters on the planet.
It’s just:
Minor league infield instructor Chris Woodward was going to leave Tacoma today, but was asked to stay with the team and teach Montero 1B.
— Mike Curto (@CurtoWorld) May 24, 2013
Montero has never played first base in the majors or in the minors. Not in a game, anyway, so it’s basically entirely unfamiliar. Montero has some concept of what first base is — he’s reached it sometimes — but, defensively, it’ll be a new thing. And though first base is the easiest defensive position on the field, that doesn’t mean it’s easy. That means it’s being compared to shortstop and center and catcher. Everything’s relative, and learning first base takes work if you want to not suck at it.
So. If the reason behind sending Montero to Tacoma is to work on his bat while stripping away the defensive stuff, what’s the sense in introducing new defensive stuff? If the belief is that Montero has struggled to develop offensively because he’s been putting a lot of effort into his defense, why have him learn new defense? Why right away?
Maybe Montero won’t actually work that much on defense. Maybe it’ll be an occasional thing, and we’ll have to let this part play out. There’s no need to overreact before we know the facts, and maybe the team just wants for Montero to not completely forget what it’s like to play the field. After all, it’d be good if Montero became a decent first baseman down the line. But it seems to me the priority should be getting the bat going, if that’s still possible. Get the bat going, and then, after the instruction takes, ease Montero gently back into defense. Montero’s supposed to be a bat-first player. The bat has gone missing. Focus on the bat.
I don’t want to criticize the Mariners for something they might not do, and presumably they’ve thought this through and they have a plan. I’m sure they want for Montero’s bat to develop even more than I do, because I don’t have anything personally invested in this. I won’t lose my job if the Mariners suck. It’s just going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I should hope that Montero doesn’t spend too much time learning a new defensive position right away. I should hope that stuff doesn’t impair his ability to get better at the plate. Nobody ever looked at Jesus Montero and pictured a future Gold Glover. They pictured a middle-of-the-order slugger, and if it’s the team’s belief he hasn’t made progress in part because of defensive concerns, I don’t really get introducing new defensive concerns. Let him hit first. At least let him try.
Rainiers vs. Nashville Sounds Game Thread
Jeremy Bonderman vs. Zack Kroenke, 7:40pm
The Rainiers have been worth watching all year, with Hultzen and Paxton in the rotation, Mike Zunino catching and the inevitable Franklin Gutierrez rehab appearances. Now, they’ll get extra scrutiny as we all see if Jesus Montero can revive his career and possibly learn a new position while remembering how to hit.
Now, full disclosure here, Montero hasn’t reported yet/isn’t in the line-up tonight. Mike Curto reports that M’s minor league IF coordinator Chris Woodward will stick around in Tacoma to help Montero learn 1B, but presumably that’ll start tomorrow. For tonight, the M’s front office’s collective eyes will be on Jeremy Bonderman as he tries to make the case that he’s a better bet going forward than Aaron Harang. He’ll have to make that case in wet, cold, dreary conditions. It’s presumably for said dreariness that Franklin Gutierrez will DH tonight with Abe Almonte in CF.
The M’s are off, but Zunino and Franklin are playing. If you count Guti, Stefen Romero and possibly Bonderman, a good portion of this team could be suiting up for Seattle in September, if not before. Bonderman’s opt-out is in about a week, so this is a critical game for him. If they don’t call him up soon, they’d presumably lose him to free agency.
The R’s brought up Brandon Bantz, another D-first catcher who played a bit for the R’s in 2012, to replace Jesus Sucre. They also sent 1B Rich Poythress back to Jackson to make room for 1B Jesus Montero.
Line-up:
1: Gutierrez, DH
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Liddi, 3B
4: Peguero, RF
5: Romero, LF
6: Zunino, C
7: Tenbrink, 1B
8: Triunfel, SS
9: Almonte, CF
SP: Bonderman