Saunders Called Up
Ryan Divish is reporting that the Mariners have called up Michael Saunders to help give them some depth. No word on the corresponding move yet, but I’m guessing Bradley goes to the disabled list, and they end up giving him two weeks off. We’ll update when the rest of the transaction is finalized.
Update: apparently the transaction won’t be as of today’s game, as Saunders isn’t listed on the M’s line-up card. However, Divish reports that Bradley will go on the restricted list, so perhaps they’ll just issue a new line-up card for the evening.
Saunders Sent Down
Not much of a surprise here, as the writing was on the wall once the team traded for Milton Bradley, but Michael Saunders was sent to minor league camp today and will begin the season with Triple-a Tacoma. With Bradley and Byrnes expected to split time in left, there just weren’t going to many at-bats for Saunders on the big league roster. If he plays well in Tacoma, he’ll be first in line for a recall when Bradley or Griffey land on the DL, but until there are regular at-bats for him in Seattle, he’s better off in the minors.
Mike Koplove and Levale Speigner were also sent to minor league camp, but neither of them had any real chance of making the team. They’re just bullpen depth for the Rainiers.
Hall and Saunders
You’ve probably noticed that Bill Hall has been essentially an everyday player since he arrived in Seattle, and that after Adrian Beltre returned and Mike Carp joined the club when rosters expanded, Wakamatsu has found playing time for Hall by sticking him primarily in left field. Because of that decision, Michael Saunders has essentially disappeared. In the last two weeks, Saunders has three plate appearances. Three.
I know the M’s wanted to see what Hall could offer them if he got regular at-bats, and Saunders hasn’t exactly made a case for more playing time with his performance, but I’m not a fan of this arrangement. While Hall was a nice little pickup as a potentially useful and relatively cheap utility player, his total potential value to the M’s is fairly limited. He turns 30 this winter, and the odds of him fixing his contact problems are slim at best. Given his inability to regularly put the bat on the ball, Hall’s just not going to hit enough to make him a good enough player to be the team’s regular left fielder in 2010.
Saunders, on the other hand, actually has some real ability to improve with regular playing time. He’s had a rough go against major league pitching so far, but there’s a reason they call it a learning curve – the rate of improvement increases exponentially with playing time. We can’t really expect him to figure out how to hit a major league breaking ball sitting on the bench, and the 2010 Mariners could really use a version of Michael Saunders that can hit a breaking ball.
With the team out of contention, the goal for the last two weeks out of the season should be to help next year’s club as much as possible. And for that team, Michael Saunders is simply more important than Bill Hall is. I’m fine with Wak getting Hall in the line-up, but not at Saunders expense.
Less Bill Hall and more Michael Saunders please.
Saunders and Bunting
Last night, Michael Saunders laid down another perfect bunt, getting himself on base for the sixth time this season by bunting for a hit. He’s now tied for the team lead in bunt hits with Ichiro, and he’s only been on the roster for about a month. It’s not like he’s collecting these hits through sheer volume, either – he’s just been successful in reaching base six of the eight times he’s put a bunt down.
Saunders is a good bunter, there’s little doubt about that. He’s also fast and left-handed, which gives him an advantage in getting down the line before the fielder can get the ball to first base. Being able to drop one down for a hit is a nice weapon for him to have.
However, the M’s aren’t grooming him to be another Endy Chavez. He had 30 extra base hits and a .234 ISO in Triple-A when they called him up. There’s power in his bat, even if we haven’t seen it at the major league level yet. This is where my concern comes in. The whole point of having him up here right now is to attempt to evaluate his ability to help the team win next year as the club’s regular left fielder. He’s not going to help the M’s if he doesn’t drive the ball with some regularity, and he can’t do that if he’s bunting once every ten times he comes up to bat.
I’d like to see Wak tell him that he’s proven his point, showed he can get a bunt down, and that they can now trust him to handle himself in a situation if necessary. But, for the rest of the year, they’d like him to try to get the ball into the outfield, and he can feel free to put a ball or two in the stands if he wishes. He needs to learn how to work counts at the big league level, get himself into situations where he can expect a fastball and turn on it. Every time he lays down a bunt, it’s one less opportunity for him to learn how to hit big league pitching.
Being a good bunter is a nice bonus, but his value to the team will come through racking up doubles in the gap. More swings, less bunting please.
Wlad DFAed, Saunders to MLB
Per Baker and others.
Dave adds: Interesting timing. Saunders has been on fire down in Tacoma of late, but shouldn’t be expected to be such a huge improvement over Langerhans for the rest of this year to make a dramatic difference on the field. This, to me, looks like a move for 2010 – Saunders gets an extended audition so they can get a better idea of what they have in left field going forward. I’d say this is the first sign that the team is shifting its focus away from this season.
As for Wlad, don’t worry about losing him for nothing. He was getting traded this week regardless – this just gets him off the roster sooner. The M’s now have 10 days to trade him or pass him through waivers. There will be enough interest in a young/cheap outfielder with power that they’ll be able to deal him for something. Like, say, Ian Snell?
What Would “Going For It” Look Like?
There are two distinct but interrelated questions all of us are trying to figure out right now: 1) Should the Mariners, 1.5 games out of the wild card but with an offense putting up a .294 OBP and with a negative run differential, trade some of their prospects for help? And 2) If the answer is yes, what kind of moves are most likely?
Because 1 is exceedingly hard to answer in a vacuum, we’ll spend most of our time poking around at 2. There are many, many trade scenarios that would add value to the line-up but which don’t make a whole lot of sense, and many of these Dipoto has talked about: rental players in exchange for significant prospects. No one expects that, Dipoto doesn’t want to make such moves, and we can pretty much ignore them. On the other hand, we’ve got deals that literally anyone would make: trades that add some modicum of benefit to this year’s club AND who have at least another year of club control, in exchange for prospects who are years away and/or players with a lower ceiling. If you can convince another team to make *that* kind of deal, you do so, and no one’s going to argue about it. So we’ll set aside Kris-Bryant-for-Julio Rodriguez, and we’ll set aside Jose-Berrios-for-a-PTBNL-and-cash-considerations at this point and try to examine Dipoto’s own history of deadline trades. Because he’s Jerry Dipoto, there are a lot of deals to talk about.
For this, we’ll look at instances where a Dipoto-led team made trades to improve in the current year. We’re not talking about interim-GM-Jerry’s trade of Dan Haren for Tyler Skaggs back in 2010, because the D’backs were awful, and were trying to rebuild. Likewise, we’re not talking about trading James Paxton for Justus Sheffield, as that wasn’t a deadline deal, and wasn’t a win-now deal, either. I’m not sure how exhaustive a list to make it, so some minor things I’ll skip over, but let’s see if we can find any patterns.
2012: Los Angeles Angels
Deadline Record: 57-47, 2nd in AL West
Jerry Dipoto became the GM in the late-autumn of 2011, and quickly found himself in an ideal situation. His boss, owner Arte Moreno, opened his checkbook, allowing Dipoto to sign Albert Pujols and the top SP on the FA market, CJ Wilson, on the same December day. Hyped rookie Mike Trout, who’d debuted in 2011, had an all-time rookie season, cruising to 10 WAR in 2012. Trout drove the offense, and Pujols chipped in with his last Pujolsian season. CJ Wilson was…fine, but Jered Weaver went 20-5, and the Angels were in a great position at 10 games over at the deadline.
As good as the offense was, the pitching staff was merely good. The bullpen was middle-of-the-pack in July, and the rotation was about the same. Neither group was bad or anything, but the problem was that the Angels were fighting tooth and nail with two clubs, the Athletics and defending AL Champion Rangers, who both had stronger bullpens than the Angels. The Angels rotation was a clear step ahead of the A’s by record, but not by FIP. The out-of-nowhere A’s were behind in the standings, but shockingly not as bad as everyone thought they’d be.
With no real allegiance to the prospects he’d inherited from Tony Reagins and with encouragement from an owner who’d splashed out for Pujols, Dipoto went all in. On July 27th, Dipoto sent prized IF prospect Jean Segura and other prospects for the biggest rental player on the market: SP Zack Greinke of Milwaukee.
Did it work?
Eh, not really. The Angels finished 89-73, but finished in 3rd place and missed the playoffs. The Rangers, long thought the prohibitive favorite, won 93 games and the wildcard as the A’s pipped them at the post, winning 94 games and the divisional title. The Rangers humiliation would continue, as they’d lose the play-in game to the Baltimore Orioles, who started Mariners cast-off (and one-time Angel) Joe Saunders.
Is this type of trade likely this year?
Absolutely not. There are plenty of big-name rentals available, though perhaps none quite as sought-after as Greinke was in 2012. Dipoto has said time and again he’s not interested.
Minor trade of note: In early May, Dipoto swapped IF prospect Alexi Amarista for Padres reliever Ernesto Frieri, and the Angels had their closer.
2014 Los Angeles Angels:
Deadline Record: 64-43, 2nd in AL West
After a disappointing 2013, things came together the following year. The offense still had Mike Trout, who was still unreal despite league-wide offense tanking. Albert Pujols sad decline was in effect, but essentially everyone on the team was at least league-average at the plate. They weren’t going to blow anyone out of the water at the plate, but particularly for their (pitcher-friendly) park, their line-up was an overall plus.
Their rotation was, again, a strength, as Matt Shoemaker has his best year as a rookie, and Garrett Richards had the kind of season that ensured he’ll always find work in MLB despite injuries and ineffectiveness marring his career. CJ Wilson had a down year, but Jered Weaver was still quite good.
There was a problem, though. Their bullpen ranked 26th in fWAR in the first half. Frieri turned into a pumpking, sporting an ERA well over 6 when he was traded for Pirates reliever Jason Grilli in late June.
Grilli was coming off some very successful seasons in Pittsburgh, but had a down first-half by his standards. It was a solid change-of-scenery deal for both teams, but Dipoto wasn’t done. After taking a flyer on AAA veteran and last-chance lefty Rich Hill on July 1, Dipoto pushed his chips all in and traded some of his best pitching prospects for Padres closer Huston Street. Trading for Padres relievers had worked so well in 2012, so he decided to go for the top closer on the market. He also nabbed Street’s set-up man, acquiring Joe Thatcher in a separate deal. All in all, Dipoto parted with his #1, #7, #8, and #10 prospects (per https://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/1/11/5297876/los-angeles-angels-top-20-prospects-for-2014).
Did it Work?
Yes, I think this has to be seen as a success. The Angels bullpen improved, and they cruised to a 98-win season, 10 games up on the A’s (who won the Wild Card). The context here was that the division itself was down, as the Rangers window was closing, and the A’s seemingly always about to collapse. The Mariners were moving up fast, finishing a game behind the Angels, but were probably a year or two away.
Is this type of trade likely this year?
Not exactly, no. There are some big-name relievers on the market, including Rich Rodriguez of Pittsburgh, but I can’t imagine that’s something the M’s would be involved in. However, I think this solidified in Dipoto’s mind the importance of a strong bullpen. He hasn’t always shown the ability to reliably create one, mind you, but looking for buy-low relievers has been top of mind since before he got the M’s job. A move like the Joe Thatcher deal may be much more likely than a Huston Street-style splash.
Minor trade of note:
The Angels acquired reliever Vinnie Pestano from Cleveland in exchange for low-lever SP flyer Mike Clevinger. Pestano was great for the Angels, albeit in less than 10 IP. Clevinger eventually became a top SP, but is out with TJ rehab after joining the Padres.
2016 Seattle Mariners
Deadline record: 52-51, 3rd in AL West
The new GM inherited what seemed like a talented but underperforming club with a poor farm club. That script seemed to be playing out in 2016, as the Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano-led offense finished 2nd in the AL in home runs, which helped them play around some black holes in the line-up, notably SS Ketel Marte, C Chris Iannetta, and CF Leonys Martin. The division was tough, but winnable, with the Astros a year away from full-spectrum dominance (with an asterisk, of course). Texas had their last hoorah as a force in the division, but they made no sense. They led the division at the break, but had a negative run differential. In the end, they’d win the division going away despite a pythagorean record of 82-80.
The M’s bullpen was a strength in the first half, and the line-up was powerful, if allergic to leather – they had the second worst defensive numbers in the game.
The starting rotation had been revamped before the year, with Wade Miley and Nate Karns coming in. Both struggled, especially with long-balls in a year that would challenge all-time records for HRs – records that were about to be smashed, repeatedly. The M’s were in third place, and the wild card looked impossible in late July. Teams in the AL East and Central had sizable leads. Thus, the M’s played it safe, making a series of small addition-by-subtraction moves.
Wade Miley was off to Baltimore in exchange for Ariel Miranda. Struggling reliever Joaquin Benoit was swapped for fellow struggling-reliever Drew Storen. The M’s swapped low-level relief prospect Jake Brentz for hard-throwing Arquimedes Caminero. And Dipoto re-acquired Wade LeBlanc, a player he’d picked up in Anaheim, and would continue to look for in Seattle. The headline move, though, was something of a head-scratcher. The M’s newest relief ace was lefty set-up guy Mike Montgomery, in his first year in the pen after his debut with the M’s a year earlier. The M’s were on the fringes of a playoff race, but swapped an effective reliever for a prospect: in this case, Cubs 1B/DH prospect, Dan Vogelbach.
Did it work?
Yes, actually. Storen was decent, Caminero looked good at times, and importantly, neither looked as bad as Benoit. Wade Miley needed to go, and did. Of course, things also worked out well for the other teams: Mike Montgomery helped the Cubs win the World Series that year, pitching the last out in relief. Jake Brentz is, finally, in the majors and pitching well, though not for the club that traded for him.
Is this type of trade likely this year?
I wouldn’t be surprised. As good as trading for need is, sometimes dealing from depth is just as important a maxim. The M’s have a lot of bullpen depth suddenly, and while it would piss off the clubhouse, I can imagine Dipoto deciding to sell high on, say, Drew Steckenrider, particularly if the M’s series with Houston doesn’t go well.
Minor trade of note:
Well, they were all minor that year, but a minor trade this year is one of the most painful: in June, the M’s sent IF Chris Taylor to the Dodgers for SP Zach Lee. Taylor, the new NL Player of the Week, has become an excellent hitter capable of playing all over the IF and OF. He posted a nearly 5-WAR season in 2017, and is on his way to something similar here in 2021. If the M’s want to reacquire him, and they absolutely should, it’ll cost quite a bit in free agency.
2017 Seattle Mariners:
Deadline Record: 54-53, 2nd in AL West
The 2017 Mariners still had an excellent offense and fixed some of their defensive ineptitude from 2016. The division was, perhaps, a bit weaker, but it had a runaway leader: the newly dominant Houston Astros, who’d go on to win over 100 games. But despite a great record in one-run games, the M’s pitching was in shambles. Trade target Yovani Gallardo imploded, and Ariel Miranda, who’d looked interesting in the second half of 2016, looked much less so in 2017. Injuries and ineffectiveness led the M’s to cycle through guys like Christian Bergman, Sam Gaviglio, and Andrew Moore. Hisashi Iwakuma and Felix Hernandez battled injuries and ineffectiveness.
Worse, the bullpen wasn’t always able to bail them out. Edwin Diaz wasn’t as good as he’d been in 2016, and while $1 special Tony Zych was great, Marc Rzepczynski was not, and James Pazos was up-and-down. So with the team in 2nd, but facing an uphill climb to make the playoffs, the M’s made a couple of moves to shore up their beleaguered pitching staff. They flipped OF prospect Tyler O’Neill for Cards lefty Marco Gonzales, buying low on a guy still working his way back from injury. They probably foresaw Gonzales getting big league innings in 2017, and he did, so you can kind of call it a move to supplement the big-league team, but it was much more a move to improve the M’s rotation down the road.
To help the bullpen, the M’s packaged prospects OF Brayan Hernandez and SP Pablo Lopez to the Marlins for reliever David Phelps. Phelps was having a great year, and the M’s prospects were in the lower levels, but this turned into a disaster when Phelps blew out his elbow a few weeks after coming over. Much better was the trade a week later to reacquire Erasmo Ramirez from Tampa in exchange for erstwhile closer Steve Cishek.
Still figuring out if they were in or out, the M’s then made a splash just after the deadline, trading OF Boog Powell for 1B Yonder Alonso. Alonso had been known for his discipline, but had shown little power for a 1B, but was on a power spree in early 2017 with Oakland.
Did it work?
It’s a mixed bag, here, but the short and longer term answer is probably no. The M’s slumped in August and September, finishing below .500 and out of the race. Alonso’s discipline-but-no-power approach was back, Gonzales got hit very hard in Seattle, and, as mentioned, Phelps got hurt. Erasmo Ramirez pitched pretty well down the stretch of increasingly less important games.
We debated the O’Neill/Gonzales trade furiously, as I worried that the M’s had given up the best player. O’Neill is having a breakout season now, but won’t add as much value as Gonzales did between 2018-2020, though his collapse this year is a real concern. What no one knew at the time was that the best player traded in this spree wasn’t either guy – it was Lopez, the pitchability lefty the M’s added in what was then the Hernandez-for-Phelps deal. He hasn’t logged the IP or WAR as Gonzales, but he’s grown into a very good #2 SP, though he is on the shelf at the moment with shoulder discomfort, which is never good.
Is this type of trade(s) likely this year?
I think so. As with the previous year, Dipoto likes to hedge his best, combining win-now moves with some attention to longer term needs. I don’t say that disparagingly at all, he’s been better at that than I’ve given him credit for, and it’s one reason why the M’s are in this position. I don’t think he has some remarkable acumen in talent ID; the Taylor-for-Lee swap would disabuse anyone of that notion. But his process has been better than we bloggers often realize, and that’s worth something. I can see people getting upset if he does something like that this year, but with their playoff odds still remote and with the team firmly in negative run differential territory, you can argue for playing for a year in which Jarred Kelenic hits better than .100.
Minor trade of note: Anthony Misiewicz and Luis Rengifo for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton
This trade didn’t mean much, especially with Rengifo regressing in Anaheim, but it’s a testament to how often the same names repeat themselves in Dipoto’s trade logs. He’d reacquire Misiewicz later on, and he’d become a solid part of the M’s bullpen this year. You could do this with everyone from Keynan Middleton and Vinnie Nittoli to Tyler Skaggs and Wade LeBlanc. If you’re a player wondering if Dipoto still has your agent’s number, don’t worry: he does.
2018 Seattle Mariners
Deadline Record: 63-44, 2nd in AL West
The division was still Houston’s to lose, but the M’s unreal start had them in control of the Wild Card. The bullpen was now a strength, leading to a great record in one-run games yet again. Gonzales’ emergence solidified the rotation, and that group, too, was above average. The bats were merely league-average, but the whole was greater than the sum of its parts. Mitch Haniger, just acquired from Arizona, was a revelation, as was the guy he came over with, Jean Segura (see what I mean about names repeating?). Dan Vogelbach was taking longer than expected, and Mike Zunino fell off of his brilliant 2017 pace, but even if you wanted to argue that the team was lucky – and let’s be clear, they were: they had a negative run differential despite a huge win total – you couldn’t take away all of those wins that they’d banked.
The focus at the deadline was shoring up the team, and particularly the bullpen. Lucky was one thing, but lucky AND good was the goal. Thus, relief prospect Seth Elledge was flipped for Sam Tuivailala, SP prospect Andrew Moore went to Tampa for Denard Span and Alex Colome, and then the M’s flipped cash and lower-level prospects for rental relievers Zach Duke from the left side and Adam Warren from the right.
Did it work?
No. All told, the M’s bullpen had a better ERA in the 2nd half than in the 1st (albeit with a poorer FIP), but the gamble failed, as the luck that had alighted on the M’s skipped town. The team was already looking shakier in July, and then had a mediocre August. They finished in third place in the strong AL West behind Houston and Oakland. Their record of 89-73 looked nothing like their Pythagorean record of 77-85, and ultimately convinced Dipoto and ownership to embark on the step-back/rebuild that they’re still navigating today.
Is this type of trade likely this year?
Despite their bullpen being a signal strength, I think we could see another Duke+Warren style swoop. It cost them very little and seemed to make sense. Warren came from the Yankees, possessors of a bullpen that was too good to give innings to him, for example. I know Dipoto doesn’t want rentals, but a nearly-free guy getting shut out of high-leverage innings might be too tempting.
Minor trade of note: Bryson Brigman for Cameron Maybin
Again, good idea to get a former uber-prospect at a position of need, but this didn’t quite work out.
What have we learned?
Jerry Dipoto wants to blend near-term and medium-term improvements, and Zack Greinke ain’t happening in 2021. He learned in 2014 and potentially again in 2016-18 how important bullpen success is, and thus I wouldn’t be surprised to see the former reliever target bullpen upgrades as much for load management as anything else. The M’s have serious needs at the plate, and that’s why they’re being linked with Royals 2B Whit Merrifield, but Merrifield may cost more than the M’s want to spend, as he’s under contract for 2022 and has a team option for 2023.
The M’s aren’t moving Kelenic/Raleigh/Rodriguez/Gilbert, and probably won’t sell low-ish on George Kirby and Emerson Hancock, who are pitching sparingly as the M’s manage their workload. Thus, it might center on the M’s willingness to part with Noelvi Marte. I simply can’t see that happening. If the M’s wanted to move some of their pitching depth, it would take more than Hancock on his own, and the Royals may be loathe to go for Kirby if they’re worried he’s not 100%.
Thus, I think we might see more bullpen help, and probably some selling of solid contributors as well as buying near-term help as the M’s go all-in (kind of) in 2022.
Game 160, Mariners at Angels
Marco Gonzales vs. Tyler Skaggs, 7:05pm
The M’s kick off the last series of the year with a match-up of Jerry Dipoto’s newly-acquired lefty Marco Gonzales and an old favorite – a lefty so enticing, Dipoto traded for him twice, as GM of two different teams.
When ex-Arizona GM Josh Byrnes was fired in July of 2010, Dipoto couldn’t afford to sit tight and wait for his tenure as interim GM to end. The D-Backs were out of it, and would finish with more than 90 losses. But they’d acquired some veterans in a push to jump-start their rebuild, a move headlined by the now-painful swap of Max Scherzer for Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. In late July, with Dipoto now in control, they still had one big trade chip as the deadline approached: Dan Haren. Failing to capitalize could set the team back years, so Dipoto made his move. He acquired lefty command/control guy (hmm) Joe Saunders for immediate help but also got prized Angels prospect Tyler Skaggs as the PTBNL. Haren was great down the stretch in Anaheim, but couldn’t get the Halos above .500, but with a full year of Haren in 2011, the Angels won 86 in 2011. Meanwhile, Skaggs’s stuff seemed to regress upon his arrival in the D-backs org, but by that point, Dipoto wasn’t long for Arizona. He became the Angels GM in 2011, a bit more than a year after his first big trade.
After two disappointing season split between AAA and Arizona, Skaggs had worn out his welcome in Arizona. So when Dipoto was working on the three-team trade involving Hector Santiago and Mark Trumbo, he got the D-Backs to throw in Skaggs as well. Almost immediately, his velo improved, and Skaggs made 18 pretty good starts for the Angels in 2014. Seen as a potential #3, Skaggs then missed all of 2015 with TJ surgery, and injuries have hampered him ever since. He won’t make 100 IP this year, so 2014 remains the only year in which he had at least 100 big league innings. He still has a rising four-seamer at 92 and a big breaking curve ball he throws about 30% of the time. Unfortunately, his change never really developed, and thus he lacks a good pitch against righties – RHBs are hitting .272/.344/.452 against Skaggs this year.
Gonzales is also a lefty, and also has a fastball at around 92. Like Skaggs, Gonzales’ development is being hampered by the failure of his third pitch to develop. Like Skaggs, he throws a fastball/curve/change, but with Gonzales, the change-up’s also been light years ahead of the curve. He’s throwing more curves this year, but it’s still not fooling anyone; he has no strikeouts on the pitch, and batters are 9 for 15 when putting it in play. Like Skaggs, Dipoto’s obviously seen something in Gonzales beyond his stats or his pitch movement numbers. After taking some criticism about the O’Neill-for-Gonzales swap, Dipoto had this to say to the TNT’s Bob Dutton, “”Clearly, we like Marco Gonzales better than the mainstream media…but the mainstream media hasn’t been familiar with Marco Gonzales for a year-and-a-half. You know what happens? Sometimes pitchers have Tommy John (surgery), and sometimes they come back and they’re good.”
The M’s need him to be right.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Gamel, LF
9: Motter, RF
SP: Gonzales
Game 157, Mariners at Astros
King Felix vs. Mike Fiers, 5:10pm
Happy Felix Day. Yes, Felix wasn’t at his best the last time he had a must-win game against these Astros, but hey, he bounced back in his next start. The M’s finally won a game started by Collin McHugh last night – now they need their ace to show he’s ready to dominate this Houston club.
I really thought they’d blown it. The M’s odds of winning were well over 90% in the top of the 9th, but after Edwin Diaz stumbled, the *Astros* odds surged to over 80%. Just look at the win probability chart:
Even after Cano’s HR, when the Astros got two on in the bottom of the inning, I thought it’d happen again. This is what being a fan for a long time does to you; even in your moments of triumph, you’re looking around, waiting to see how it’s going to be taken away from you, waiting to see who’s going to ruin it. The M’s have done what they absolutely needed to do these past two games, and while the last homestand pushed them to the brink, the M’s got some help in recent days from the Indians and Yankees. They’re somehow not out of it yet. And that’s why something like tonight’s Indians line-up in Detroit hurts more than it should. The Indians clinched the central the other day, so their line-up today (as pointed out by Bob Dutton) looks like a split-squad game in the first week of March. Someone named Michael Martinez is starting and batting 2nd; he’s had 570+ PAs, and has a career wRC+ of 36. Jesus Aguilar is the 1st baseman, and good old Abe Almonte is hitting 3rd and starting in an OF corner. Another former Mariner, one-time #1 prospect Adam Moore, starts at catcher. This is entirely appropriate for a team that’s already won the league, but it can’t help but feel like trolling.
Realistically, the M’s need to go about 5-1 to have a chance. That’d put them at 88 wins, right where Baltimore would end up if they go 3-3. They’ve got the Jays to deal with now (who are definitely not at the let’s-just-start-some-prospects stage) and then finish with New York. Detroit finishes with the Braves, so they have a shot at matching a 4-2, 5-1 run by the M’s, but it’d be tough. A tie would be fascinating, of course, and while I’m not sure it’d play to the M’s strengths, I think it’d be very rough on Baltimore, a team that might need to give critical, one-game-playoff-type innings to Wade Miley.*
Mike Fiers just shut the M’s down in Seattle 10 days ago. The underpowered righty has a 90mph fastball with tons of rise that he pairs with one of the biggest breaking curve balls in the game. The two pitches differ in vertical movement by about 2 *feet*. His curve’s been tough to hit in recent games, which is good for Fiers, because he’s struggled a bit with his fastball. Not against the M’s, of course, but Fiers can be homer-prone. He’s also got a decent change-up, and his arsenal’s been quite good against left-handed bats- Fiers has reverse splits this year and for his career. In about 570 career IP, lefties have a .302 wOBA against Fiers while righties are up at .323.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lind, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Sucre, C
9: Marte, SS
SP: El Cartelua
Every year, someone comes up and posts a bonkers slash line in a handful of plate appearances and either makes fans irrationally hopeful about his subsequent season, or causes fans (and teams!) to think that a veteran made some critical adjustment. Think Bloomquist’s M’s debut, or Abe Almonte’s last month in 2013 – for a slightly less cynical take, there was Jose Bautista’s final month of 2009, when he went from journeyman to JOSE BAUTISTA and hasn’t stopped all-caps’ing since. I don’t think anyone’s going to suggest that Jesus Sucre get the bulk of the playing time next year, but Sucre is, against all odds, hitting .500/.560/.727. No, it doesn’t mean anything, but Sweet Jesus has a quarter of his career XBH in his last 2 games. Yes, it’s a miniscule sample, but it’s also *Jesus Sucre*. The guy’s had plenty of small samples and his best SLG% in the majors was the .246 mark he managed in 2014. This is that rare and wonderful intersection of baffling and fun.
* This is similar to Baltimore in 2012, which rallied to win a wild card and had to turn to Joe Saunders in a one-game, do-or-die contest in Arlington. Saunders won that game, and earned himself a contract from the M’s in the off-season. That went somewhat less well than the WC game.
Game 151, Blue Jays at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. JA Happ, 7:10pm
Last night’s loss was a tough one. Between Marco Estrada’s brilliance and a stadium full of Canadians cheering him on, it didn’t feel like a critical M’s game. The M’s continue to struggle against pitchers like Estrada and Mike Fiers, which sucks, as JA Happ’s rising four-seamer could presage more harmless fly outs. To be fair to the M’s, they hit the ball somewhat hard later in the game – Cano’s bases-loaded warning track drive was the most frustrating example. The loss knocked the M’s playoff odds down to 15+%, down about 7 percentage points from yesterday. The Blue Jays not only got a big win, but saw the Orioles lose as well, so their odds crossed the 70% mark, up about 9 percentage points on the day.
Tonight they face 2015 Mariner JA Happ, who I think doesn’t get enough attention for how odd he’s been over the last 3 years or so. For several years, he was a garden variety 5th starter, who walked too many and gave up too many HRs thanks to a deadly combination of both below-average velocity and “stuff” AND below-average control and command. Things started improving, seemingly out of nowhere, in 2014, when Happ was 31. He began throwing more strikes and added 2mph on his FB. His 90-91mph rising four-seamer and sinker were suddenly 92-93+, and while he still had some HR issues, he at least offered a bit of potential. That was enough for Seattle, who traded Mike Saunders for him despite his looming free agency. At the time, I wasn’t thrilled with the trade, but thought that Happ could adapt to his new surroundings by ditching his sinker and actively courting fly balls. He didn’t really listen, and while his GB% crept up slightly, he gave up a ton of base hits and thus too many runs in Seattle. He’d be great at times, but inconsistency doomed him, and he was shipped to Pittsburgh for unheralded SP prospect Adrian Sampson.
Under Ray Searage, Happ completely abandoned the sinker, and started firing four-seamers over 70% of the time. This sounds like a bigger change than it was; he’d often thrown a ton of fastballs, going all the way back to his days in Philadelphia. And he’d typically thrown them up in the zone – batters swung at more of them there, and the location plus his rising action allowed Happ to miss more bats than he otherwise would, given his so-so velocity. But in Pittsburgh, he was flat-out dominant. His K rate spiked to over 26% and he essentially stopped walking people at all. Curiously, though, his GB% didn’t really move. No one cared, because no one could actually hit him, and he looked like a completely different pitcher.
The Jays thought that was enticing enough to extend him a 3-year, $36m contract in a move that left a lot of people shaking their heads. Thus far, Happ’s been worth it. The weird thing is that he’s been successful by abandoning the approach that worked in Pittsburgh. From the beginning of the year, he’s been throwing more sinkers. Not just more than he threw in Pittsburgh (none) or Seattle (15%), but far more than he’s ever thrown – nearly 30% of his pitches. Eno Sarris notes that Happ’s sinker has a lot more drop than his four-seam, and that’s true – but it’s also not new. That was true very late in 2014, and the gap was even bigger in Seattle than it is now.
So with this new-fangled approach, he’d have to have a different batted ball profile, right? Well, no. His GB% now is essentially unchanged from where it was last year. Even comparing just his Pittsburgh stats (zero sinkers) to this year’s Toronto numbers (lotsa sinkers) shows a delta of less than 2 percentage points. The pitch is put in play often, goes for grounders often, and he’s throwing more of it…but his batted ball profile is stuck at around 40% grounders. The key here is that the approach is doing something to his *four-seamer*. His whiff/swing ratio on his four-seam is over 26%, way higher than in the past, and one of the best in baseball. Not only that, but because batters are more likely to swing at it when it’s up (or out of) in the zone, when they DO put it in play, it’s most likely a fly ball or pop-up. The increased grounders he’s getting with the sinkers are offset by the decrease he’s inducing with his four-seam.
So, are fly balls good? When he was moving to Seattle, I thought they would be, and indeed, Happ had pretty good success on fly balls last year. Like everything else, this was magnified in his time in Pittsburgh, where an ultra-low HR/FB ratio helped keep his ERA and FIP gaudy. He’s got a very low BABIP, and again, he’s been pretty successful on fly balls this year, though it’s worth noting that his HR/FB luck ran out, and he’s giving up MORE dingers than he did in Seattle. What’s actually driving that low BABIP (and thus a big gap between ERA and FIP) is ground balls. In 2015, batters slugged .305 on GBs against him (data from statcast, so it doesn’t match Fangraphs/BBREF exactly). This year, that figure is .217. BBREF has it as .207, a figure that gives him an sOPS+ of 58 (relative to the league average of 100). Why? Statcast shows a slight change in his modal or mean launch angle – here’s 2015’s and here’s 2016’s – you’ll see a bigger grouping of GBs around -10 degrees in 2016, and those grounders should theoretically be easier to convert into outs. But what about playing in front of an infield featuring Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Darwin Barney, Devon Travis, etc.? Toronto’s IF defense rates very high by advanced and regular metrics, and that’s probably driving some of the improvement as well.
1: Heredia, LF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Lee, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Iannetta, C
9: O’Malley, SS
SP: Iwakuma
Big changes in the M’s minor league system, as the Jackson Generals signed a two-year affiliation agreement with the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s pushed the M’s out of the Southern League and back to the Texas League, where they had a club from 2001-2006. Back then, they were with San Antonio, a club that featured a fair to pitcher-friendly run environment. Now, the M’s affiliate will be the Arkansas Travelers, one of the toughest parks for home runs in all of AA. Statcorner’s park factors give it an almost comical HR factor of 57 for right-handed bats. Arkansas was an Angels affiliate recently.
With Bakersfield sadly contracted, the M’s needed a high A affiliate, too. I’d thought that they may need to go to the Carolina league, who’ll grow by the two teams the Cal League shed, but instead they’ve inked a deal with the Modesto Nuts. The ex-A’s affiliate and more recently Colorado Rockies affiliate, is another park that really suppresses HR, though of course the Cal League as a whole sees more HRs than the Texas League. By Statcorner, their HR factors are 46 for LHB and 61 for RHBs. That sounds insane, but I assume the league values are inflated by High Desert, Lancaster and some of the other launching pads. It’ll certainly make a change from Sam Lynn ballpark, which featured the shortest CF distance in all of professional baseball, and thus had HR factors of 120/142 (LHB/RHB).
Speaking of the minors, it’s impossible to see this Toronto line-up and not think of the 2010 Tacoma Rainiers. Sure, I think of the 2010 Rainiers when I look at most things, but Toronto has three key offensive players from that PCL-winning team: Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, and Ezequiel Carrera. It’s tough to predict MLB success, and so much is down to opportunity, blah blah, but I will never stop being stunned that Ezequiel Carrera is a better 2016 big leaguer than Smoak, Ackley, Matt Mangini, Mike Carp, etc. Saunders has been better, of course, and we’re not even getting into guys like Michael Pineda or Shawn Kelley, but Carrera was one of the worst players I saw that year. He hit 0 HRs in 64 games and generally looked like a slap-hitting 4th OF for a AAA team. The M’s traded him in June and I thought we’d never hear from him again. He’s not been good, mind you, but he’s been more valuable than Smoak, and with Ackley hurt and so many other prospects of 2010 now out of baseball, Carrera’s pretty far up the list of most successful alumni. Baseball is baffling.
Game 109, Angels at Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. Tyler Skaggs, 6:40pm – Note the odd start time
Taijuan Walker makes his return from the DL tonight; we’ll see how long his foot holds up. Walker’s critical to the M’s going forward, as the M’s rotation suddenly needs all the help it can get. HR issues aside, it’s been a solid year for him results-wise. But with his foot injury lingering and with a FIP of 4.72, questions remain. I’ve been a big Walker believer for many years, but it’s sad to see another year go by seeing only tantalizing flashes of what he could become.
Tyler Skaggs, the lefty who missed parts of 2014, all of 2015 and half of 2016 rehabbing from TJ surgery, makes his third start of the year. To say he’s been good is an understatement. In 12 1/3 IP in his first two games back, he’s K’d 13 and walked 3, given up just 7 hits and allowed a grand total of 0 runs. Once the prize of the Angels farm system, he moved to Arizona in 2010 in the Dan Haren-for-Joe Saunders swap. That deal came in late July of 2010, when a young, interim GM in Arizona had been on the job for about 3 weeks. Jerry Dipoto’s first big trade was a big one, and while Saunders replaced Haren’s innings in the majors, Skaggs was seen as the real prize for the rebuilding Diamondbacks. Unfortunately for Arizona, Skaggs’ stuff didn’t comport with either his top prospect reputation or his (very good) results in the minors in 2011-2012. He had a cup of coffee with Arizona in 2012, and got hit hard, surrendering too many HRs and averaging just 90mph on his fastball. Sure, he was a lefty, and he was never supposed to be a high-90s fireballer, but he wasn’t any better in 2013, and worse, he got hit just as hard in the minors.
After that season, the Diamondbacks sent him back to Anaheim in the three-team trade that sent Mark Trumbo to Arizona, Hector Santiago to Anaheim and Adam Eaton to Chicago. The GM acquiring him in that trade? Uh, Jerry Dipoto again. Almost immediately, he added the MPH to his fastball that he’d lost in the desert, and he averaged 92+ for the Angels. It’s not like he was an ace or anything, but he was a solid pitcher, with a FIP in the mid-3’s and a much better walk rate than he’d shown in Arizona. Unfortunately, he succumbed to a torn ligament during 2014, and his rehab took a bit longer than expected. At one point, Skaggs had talked about trying to get back within 12-14 months and pitch in games (perhaps in the minors) in 2015, but that obviously didn’t happen.
Given the layoff, I’m sure even the Angels didn’t quite know what to expect, but thus far, he’s been better than ever. His velocity’s over 93 at this point, with excellent rise. His curve, thrown about 76, has a ton of movement as well. He’s got a decent change, but it’s clearly behind the hook. He’s been hard on lefties, but he’s really improved against righties recently – he dominated them in the PCL this year, and that’s continued in his first couple starts with the Angels.
The story of today’s game isn’t Skaggs, nor even Walker’s return. It’s the ceremony honoring recent HOF inductee Ken Griffey Jr., who’ll have his iconic #24 jersey retired tonight. It’s been a great weekend, with Griffey bobblehead day yesterday and Griffey jersey giveaway tomorrow. I’ve tried to say how much Griffey meant to Seattle and to baseball, but I can’t come close to capturing it. He was one of a kind, and I’ll always be thankful for seeing his career play out.
1: Heredia, LF
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Lee, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Iannetta, C
8: Martin, CF
9: O’Malley, SS
SP: Walker
The Rainiers look for a 3-1 series win over El Paso tonight with Joe Wieland on the mound. They’ve pounded the Chihuahuas thus far, scoring 30 runs in the first three games, highlighted by a PCL-classic 16-15 win the other day. Stefen Romero’s homered in each of the past two games and continues to put together an eye opening season. Pat Venditte will be activated and ready to pitch for Tacoma. Yesterday’s 7-5 loss was marred by 4 Tacoma errors and 5 unearned runs. Tacoma’s record on the year is 66-47, best in the PCL. They have a 3 game lead over Fresno in their division.
Jackson faces Birminham today, with Tyler Herb taking the hill for the Generals. Recent acquisition Paul Blackburn (part of the Mike Montgomery deal) is off to a fast start, giving up 2 runs in 14 IP over 3 starts with his new team. He’s still not missing many bats, but hey, so far, so good. Ryan Yarbrough’s given up 1 earned run in his last 18 innings. Jackson is 30 games over .500. After winning the first-half title going away, they’re leading the second-half race as well.
Bakersfield faces Lake Elsinore today with Zack Littell throwing for the Blaze. The North Carolinian has been dominant for Bakersfield, even if his long scoreless streak was snapped in his last start. He’s 5-0 with an ERA of 1.66 in 6 games in High-A. Bakersfield’s only 60-52, which makes for a poor year in this year’s M’s affiliates. They DO have a solid lead in the second half standings in the Cal League North, so the dream of every full-season affiliate making the playoffs is alive and well.
Clinton and Ronald Dominguez face off with Beloit tonight. Dominguez has worked out of the pen and the rotation, and has a nice 50:8 K:BB ratio for the Lumberkings. Clinton swept a doubleheader from Cedar Rapids last night, scoring 4 runs in the 8th and 9th to beat the Kernels 7-3 in Game 1, and winning 5-3 in the nightcap. Augustus Craig’s 8th inning HR was the big blow in game 1, but Alex Jackson had 2 hits and a double in each game. Nick Neidert pitched the second game, and now has a 56:8 K:BB ratio with only 58 hits allowed in 70 IP. Clinton, like Bakersfield, leads the second half standings in the MWL West, and at 66-45, they have the 2nd best record in the MWL as a whole.
Everett dropped a 7-5 contest to Hillsboro last night, despite a HR from rehabbing SS Ketel Marte. They face the Hops again today, with Tim Viehoff on the mound. Viehoff, the M’s 12th round pick, has 34 Ks and just 13 hits allowed in 24 2/3 IP. Everett, too, is leading the second half standings in their division.