Still More Cactus League: White Sox at Mariners
Andrew Carraway vs. Dylan Axelrod, 1:05pm
Hope daylight savings time is treating you gently thus far and that you’re ready for spring training games at a slightly later time.
The M’s lost yesterday in Glendale 3-2, and, shockingly, failed to homer for the first time in several years. Jon Garland again pitched reasonably well, giving up a run in three innings, but he didn’t record a strikeout. Of course, his game was never about strikeouts, and his run of decent results may get him on the M’s roster. It’ll be an interesting decision for the M’s brass to make: Blake Beavan’s been solid and is suddenly generating more ground balls. From a process standpoint, he’s done what he/Wedge wanted. Still. he could just as easily slide to the bullpen and be the long reliever, especially now that Josh Kinney’s sidelined with a stress reaction in his rib cage. But it would be a gutsy call to break camp with a fifth starter who hasn’t pitched in a few years and who’s missing so few bats.
Today the White Sox get to deal with two right-handers on opposite sides of the prospect pendulum. Andrew Carraway, the cerebral four-year college player with middling stuff but who generates better than anticipated results will be followed by Taijuan Walker, the raw high-school athlete with some of the best pure stuff in the minors. The M’s “A” bullpen is also active for this one, with Tom Wilhelmsen, Charlie Furbush and Carter Capps available.
Dylan Axelrod, a righty with an 88-89mph fastball and years and years of minor league service time starts for Chicago. Should be a good game for the lefties, at least for the first two innings. Casper Wells is sidelined with neck soreness – just awful timing for the OF who’d made a strong push for the final roster spot over the past week. Stefen Romero’s oblique and Kinney’s ribs mean the M’s are starting to rack up some (thankfully minor) injuries.
The line-up:
1: Seager, 2B
2: Bay, LF
3: Ibanez, DH
4: Morse, 1B
5: Peguero, RF
6: Shoppach, C
7: Morban, CF
8: Andino, 3B
9: Miller, SS
SP: Carraway
Good to see Mike Morse get a game in at 1B. There are still quite a few scenarios in which he’d play there during the season, so it’s good to see him get some work in there.
Cactus League Game 16, Mariners at Dodgers
Jon Garland vs. Ted Lilly, 12:05
Spring training stats don’t mean much of anything. We keep saying that in part because it’s easy to get swept up in the M’s dinger parade and read more into it than it warrants. But that doesn’t mean everything – every result, every pitch, every swing – is random and meaningless. It makes sense when you stop and think about it, but after so many months without baseball, it’s sometimes hard to stop and think – it’s fun to watch Morse/Morales and even a healthy Franklin Gutierrez hitting moon shots. Last year, Michael Saunders started doing things he wasn’t capable of doing before. Last spring, Chance Ruffin came to camp throwing slower and with worse command. These indicators turned out to be pretty important to those players’ 2012 regular seasons.
So: is it meaningful that Hector Noesi suddenly can’t get anyone out? I think it probably is, and it’s worth wondering how it came to be that a reliever/spot starter for the Yankees in 2011 has turned into someone who couldn’t get outs in AAA last year and can’t get outs in Arizona now. His raw stuff doesn’t look all that different – the velocity’s the same, the movement’s largely unchanged, but the results aren’t. Given that, you might expect some regression to the mean and for his results to start moving back towards where he was in 2011 or where his minor league stats indicated he should be. But all of the evidence we have, from 2012 and now early 2013, is that Hector Noesi is historically easy to hit, and that he’s not improving. It’s remarkable. I’d assume his confidence is about as low as M’s fans when they see his name in the line-up, so he should probably be the focus of the M’s ‘performance specialists’ and the player development coaches. He’s pitched himself off of the M’s roster, and needs to make some adjustments if he wants to return.
Today, Jon Garland continues his case for the last rotation spot. Blake Beavan’s been surprisingly stiff competition, and Brandon Maurer’s showing good stuff and a solid arsenal of breaking balls, so Garland’s start today will get a lot of attention. He’ll pitch three innings, so seeing how his velocity holds up at pitch 40-50 is going to be huge. Of course, this is a road game, so WE can’t follow his velocity, but Wedge/Willis/Zduriencik presumably will. Garland’s stuff earlier in Spring wasn’t all the way back, but he’s pitched fairly well. Still, the M’s need a good pitcher, not just a good story. Today’s start can begin to make the argument that he’s both.
Line-up:
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Ackley, 2B
8: Sucre, C
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Garland
That’s one Montero away from an opening day line-up.
Cactus League Game 15, A’s at Mariners
Hector Noesi vs. AJ Griffin, 12:05
AJ Griffin was one of the better stories for the A’s last year, and that’s saying something considering the fairy-tale season they enjoyed. The 13th round draft pick shot through the minors last year, but was *still* unheralded, because Dan Straily – who was drafted even later – torched the minors a bit more. But after Brandon McCarthy’s injury and Bartolo Colon’s suspension, the A’s needed their minor league depth to keep them in an unlikely playoff chase. Griffin came up and gave the A’s 15 great starts, going 7-1 and putting up 1.3 WAR in 80 innings. His FIP trailed his ERA substantially, so his RA9-based WAR was actually over 2 – again, in just 80 innings! Given the paucity of MLB innings, and given the discrepancy between ERA and FIP, the projections for Griffin are kind of all over the map. Steamer and ZiPS see him regressing a bit, as his HR/FB ratio was low and he’s an extreme fly-baller. Bill James and Oliver see him essentially continuing at a pace that’s very similar to his 2012 rates. While those two systems seem optimistic across the board, it’s not crazy.
Despite a FB just shy of 90 mph and an almost pathological hatred of ground outs, Griffin was very effective in generating both strikeouts and infield flies. If you read the articles on infield pops and FIP at Fangraphs recently, you know there’s at least some research suggesting that this is a repeatable skill and an important reason some pitchers seem to “beat” their FIPs consistently. We’ll have more on that soon.
You’ve seen the match-up, so you know why I’m spending my time talking about Griffin. Yesterday saw the return to action of King Felix. It saw two of the M’s top prospects in action in a different game. It saw one of their top position player prospects go 4-5 with two HRs and 7 RBIs. Today, Hector Noesi starts. Take everything I said up there about Griffin providing way-better-than-anticipated production and being there when his team needed him and turn it 180 degrees, and you’ve got Hector Noesi’s 2012. Then, he started the Charity Game and imploded. There’s still talent in there somewhere – he appears to have much better raw stuff than Griffin, for example – but he’s taken several miles of steps backwards since coming over in the Pineda/Montero trade. There should be so much to say about this; someone needs to do the forensic autopsy of Noesi’s Mariner career, but it’s just such unpalatable work. Perhaps it’s not much of a surprise then that the weather appears to be conspiring to get this game cancelled.
If it occurs, the line-up would be:
1: Ackley, 2B
2: Gutierrez, CF
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Wells, RF
6: Montero, C
7: Zunino, DH
8: Romero, 3B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Sigghhhhh
Cactus League Games 13/14 -Split Squad blah blah blah FELIX!
M’s vs. A’s:
Brandon Maurer, James Paxton, Jeremy Bonderman vs. Tommy Milone
M’s vs. Royals:
FELIX vs. Ervin Santana
I’ve been waiting to say this: Happy Felix day.
El Rey gets two innings vs. the juggernaut known as the Kansas City Royals today in Surprise. Behind him are Lucas Luetge, Carter Capps, Stephen Pryor, and Tom Wilhelmsen. Surprise is a Pitch FX park, so we’ll get some data on what he’s throwing, which we can then obsess over. The non-Felix M’s are in Phoenix facing divisional rivals Oakland, as Maurer/Paxton and Bonderman are scheduled to pitch three innings each.
KC is undefeated in the Cactus League, but while they’ve teed off on spring pitching, they haven’t faced Seattle and they haven’t faced Felix. The M’s line-up for that game is:
1: Seager, 3b
2: Wells, LF
3: Smoak, 1B
4: Morse, DH
5: Peguero, RF
6: Shoppach, C
7: Morba, CF
8: Triunfel, SS
9: Romero, 2B
SP: King Felix
In Phoenix, the line-up behind Maurer is:
1: Andino, 2B
2: Thames, LF
3: Bay, RF
4: Morales, DH
5: Jacobs, 1B
6: Zunino, C
7: Miller, SS
8: Catricala, 3B
9: F. Martinez, CF
SP: Brandon Maurer
No live radio, though KIRO 710am is broadcasting Felix’s start at 7pm. As we’ve seen quite a bit, that game will be available live as an audio stream live at Mariners.com/gameday.
Go M’s, and welcome back, Felix
Cactus League Game 12, Brewers at Mariners
Blake Beavan vs. Mike Friers, 12:05pm
:Attenborough Voice:
The pride’s fearsome hunting skills take many forms. Armed with a plethora of strategies, each seemingly tailored to the prey, the 2013 Seattle Mariners are truly remarkable predators. Most of their attacks are ambush strikes, or the product of stalking animals like Rangers and Angels. For whatever reason, many prey animals have not yet developed a flight response to the Mariners’ prominent crest or ‘hat’ with its emblematic ‘S’. This may be the result of the Mariners moving into new territories, so local animals have yet to develop a healthy respect for the interlopers. Indeed, surprise or sneak attacks do not play to the Mariners strengths, as several members of the pride are extremely tall and unskilled in crouching for long periods of time. Blake Beavan is one of these, a truly massive specimen who seems to lack the requisite genes for subterfuge.
That’s what makes today’s hunt all the more remarkable. Instead of lying in wait for prey to wander by (and risking exposure when Blake decides to ‘hide’ behind a tiny sapling, or when Carlos Triunfel begins manically laughing at a small bug), they have lured a pack of brewers to the pride’s domain. Unaware of the pride’s taste for flesh as well as ale, the beer distributors have walked into Peoria, undoubtedly drawn by tales of the mountainous giants with an unquenchable thirst for beer – tales spread, no doubt, but some members of the pride. Watching the pride now, one can sense their excitement at the prospect of such a feast. Brendan Ryan is even more energetic than normal, the elder, Raul, taps his foot impatiently, as if he was one of the cubs. Behind the hill, the beer distributors blithely discuss golf, vacations, and sales reports.
:/Attenborough voice:
Today’s line-up:
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Ackley, 2B
3: Morse, RF
4: Morales, 1B
5: Bay, LF
6: Ibanez, DH
7: Montero, C
8: Catricala, 3B
9: Ryan, SS
Sp: Blake Beavan
Charlie Furbush and Erasmo Ramirez will follow Beavan today.
Carlos Peguero and the Off-Speed Pitch
LF Carlos Peguero’s been one of the stories of the spring, swatting three HRs and hitting several off-speed and breaking pitches hard. To many, that’s the sign of real progress, as Peguero matures from being a dead-red FB hitter to someone who can occasionally punish bad breaking pitches. There’s just one problem: Peguero’s problem’s never been bendy or slow stuff – he’s struggled against fastballs.*
In Peguero’s brief MLB career, he’s hit a total of eight HRs**. Quick – how many of those came on fastballs? 6? 4? The surprising answer is: none of them. All eight have come on off-speed pitches and breaking balls. The fastest pitch Peguero’s hit out was a hard slider from James Shields in July of last year – that came in at around 89mph. He also hit a Brad Penny splitter out back in June of 2011, but that was a mere 86mph. He’s hit three breaking balls out and five off-speed pitches (change-ups and that split), but no two- or four-seam fastballs. Nothing 90mph+. That’s not to say that he can’t, mind you. I’ve seen it in AAA. But in dealing with Peguero’s issues at the plate, we need to do some triage, and at this point, I might focus on dealing with velocity, particularly in on the hands.
Peguero’s still on the 40 man because of his extraordinary power – power that’s generated by remarkable batspeed.*** The problem is that his bat launch or trigger is quite a bit longer than other hitters. It takes him a while to get the bat in the zone, but once it’s there, it’s moving considerably faster than most MLB hitters. This pattern often leaves a hitter vulnerable to change-ups, as the hitter can’t react quickly enough to the change in velocity. Peguero’s problem seems to be that the launch often takes too long to get the bat in position in time to pull fastballs. That’s why nearly all of his balls-in-play on fastballs are hit up the middle, and it may also be the cause of his interesting whiff rate pattern.
Using pitch fx data, and normalizing for all left-handed batters, Peguero’s whiff rate by location on breaking balls looks fairly normal. He’s struggled a tiny bit on low-and-away pitches, but it’s not too bad, and in any event, the sample is so small. About the most you can say is that the data does not support the idea that Peguero has a real problem swinging through breaking balls.
Let’s switch that to fastballs, and see where Peguero struggles with swings-and-misses, again compared to other lefty batters:
Hoo boy. Ok, to me, this looks like the fundamental problem. Peguero’s been very good at dealing with change-ups, and though we can’t really say for sure, he seems to have fought breaking balls to a draw thus far. But fastballs…man, fastballs have not been kind to Carlos Peguero. It’d be one thing if the trade-off for these contact issues were a decent number of home runs, but as we discovered, there haven’t been any yet. To their credit, the M’s have talked about shortening his path to the ball this spring, and I’m sure he’s working on this. But keep it in mind when you hear about how he went the other way on a change-up, or stayed back and drove a curve. He’s done that before. We’ll know he’s made real strides when he pulls a 95mph fastball out to right.
* – I discussed this with Dave at the last USSM/LL night at Safeco, but can’t remember if I’ve posted this before. If so, I apologize.
** – Of those eight, THREE have come off of James Shields. It’s a tiny part, but a part, of why I don’t get that trade from KC’s point of view. Shields is obviously better than he’s been in a couple of games against Carlos Peguero, but I can’t unsee what I’ve seen. KC traded Wil Myers for the guy who’s owned by Carlos Peguero.
*** – I’ve heard, but can’t confirm, that Peguero’s registered some of the fastest velocity-off-the-bat readings in the brief history of Cheney Stadium’s TrackMan system. If you’ve seen a few of his well-struck HRs, this will not come as a surprise.
Pitch fx data/charts come from BP’s hitter profiles here.
Cactus League Game 11, Rockies at Mariners
Jon Garland vs. Juan Nicasio, 12:05
The M’s get a new victim today to celebrate their impending 10th straight victory: the Colorado Rockies. Picking up on the recent outbreak of M’s fever, ROOT Sports will televise today’s game, so we’ll be able to see the M’s dispatch the Rockies, who’d huddled together high on mountain peaks to escape the ravaging horde of Mariners. Some may say it’s unseemly to make a spectacle out of predator/prey interactions, but it’s just nature’s way: you can’t easily map human morality to something like this. Jon Garland and Taijuan Walker need to feed. Reid Brignac is protein-rich, and his bones aid the natural digestion of apex predators like Walker.
The M’s received a bit of a scare today – no, not from another team, don’t be absurd – when Danny Hultzen was scratched from today’s game with a hip flexor injury. It’s not thought to be serious, and will only keep him out for a few days. And as it’s not arm-related, he can continue to throw a bit on the side. Still, it’s something to keep an eye on throughout the month. There was never much chance of Hultzen breaking camp with Seattle, but that small percentage has just dwindled to zero.
Joe Saunders pitched effectively yesterday, but as Harry Pavlidis noted on twitter, he was sitting in the low-mid 80s. Saunders has never been a fireballer and his game isn’t about velocity, but if you’re already monitoring Hultzen’s hip, you may as well track Saunders’ arm as well. He was at 85-88 in his start late last year in Seattle, so it’s not a huge change, but seeing a presumptive M’s starter fire in what looked for all the world like a four-seam fastball at 83 was…perplexing. Brian Moran does that all the time, and he’s a reliever, I get it. It’s also early March, and this is the kind of thing I may be making too much of, but…83?
Line-up!
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Ibanez, DH
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Wells, RF
6: Thames, LF
7: Shoppach, C
8: Andino, 2B
9: Triunfel, SS
SP: Garland
Cactus League Game 10, Mariners at Rangers
Joe Saunders vs. Justin Grimm, 12:05
Just because it’s not predictive doesn’t mean it’s not fun. Today brings a real test of the M’s-as-juggernaut theory as Joe Saunders and Hector Noesi get set to face the Rangers. Of course, everyone laughed when Saunders got the start for Baltimore against Texas in the one-game Wild Card playoff last year. Riding an eight game winning streak, the stakes may be even higher today. Experience in high pressure situations is one of the reasons the M’s acquired the lefty.
Jason Bay gets another start today. Yesterday, people were shocked at the factoid that the 2013 NY Mets highest paid outfielders are Jason Bay and Bobby Bonilla. I laughed too, but the M’s highest paid infielder in 2013 will be Chone Figgins, so, uh, yeah.
Line-up:
1: Ackley, 2b
2: Bay, LF
3: Morales, 1B
4: Morse, RF
5: M Saunders, CF
6: Montero, C
7: Liddi, 3B
8: Zunino, DH
9: Ryan, SS
SP: J. Saunders
Cactus League Game 9, Dodgers at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Chris Capuano, 12:05pm
“They said it wouldn’t count, and then they count it anyway. Bush league stuff. What have you got when your word means nothing?” asked the old man to his distracted grandson. The young boy continued playing with a smartphone, but mouthed the word “nothing” as his grandfather repeated the word emphatically. “Nothing! That’s right! They said it was a charity game!”
The boy loved coming to his grandparents to play to but didn’t know what to make of his grandfather’s old-fashioned obsession with Cactus League baseball. “None of it counts, grandpa. Can we make sandwiches?” “I know none of it counts, but you can still learn if you pay attention. That’s why we always pay extra attention when they play in Peoria or Surprise.”
“Pappy, was that a change-up?”
“Let’s see…NO, no it wasn’t! Ha! The algorithm’s messed it up again.” The old man’s voice was excited, as he opened another browser window.
“What now, pappy?” “I’ve got to tell people.” “Who, pappy?” “Everyone! I mean, people are going to think…that….they’re going to.. make…judgments..they’re…and they’re…I’ve got to type this.”
“It’s March 2nd, pappy. Don’t you think people are doing other things?”
“Some of them aren’t. The fans aren’t . The people who *know* what they’re doing. I mean, this rotation is taking shape here, and we’ve got data to compare now for Iwakuma. This is big stuff, here.”
“But….”
“Look, Sam, you may not appreciate it right now, but there’s a long tradition involved. For decades moms and dads have hunched over gameday, or way back when they’d just look at the raw XML. Fathers joking with sons about the best horizontal movement on a change-up he’d ever seen. Moms piping in about the time Felix through a 93mph change against Texas, kids learning to differentiate sliders and curves from the data alone. And then the community beyond that – integrating these conversations with hundreds of others through sports radio, blogs, twitter. It’s a way of engaging with the baseballing world! And it’s just about the same today as it was when my grandpa first showed me a reverse-slider of Trevor Bauer’s in a Spring Training game years and years ago. And then we went on a blog together and called some other fans rubes and morons…it’s…I still hear his laugh when I look at these data.”
“Can I have a sandwich now, pappy?”
“Just…a…hold on.” He read over his comment quickly, occasionally quietly saying the words out loud. He gave the word “narrative” a mocking, sing-song cadence, and a big grin spread over his wrinkled face. “Heh. Yeah, let’s go make a sandwich. Who makes the best grilled cheese in the entire world?”
Line-up:
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Wells, RF
6: Paulino, DH
7: Zunino, C
8: Andino, SS
9: Triunfel, 2B
SP: Hisashi Iwakuma
“Paulino DHing? What’s the point? He’s not there to hit, the whole point was to be a back-up who handled the staff! You’ve only got so much time to figure out some of the key battles, and that means getting at-bats for the guys on the bubble! You can’t…he’s a…slow…I mean, what does it tell you? Nothing! There’s no…why not DH Thames or Liddi or literally anyone, I just”
“I think the sandwich is burning, pappy.”
Catcus League Game 7, Rangers at Mariners
James Paxton vs. A Ranger, 12:05
After a few successful but disorienting road games, the M’s return to Peoria to luxuriate in the warm, pocket-protected embrace of pitch fx. OK, they probably don’t care, but after a few days of tape delayed radio and no pitch-by-pitch data, I’m more excited than I have any reason to be that both Paxton and Brandon Maurer figure to pitch today in Peoria.
The M’s continue to slug the ball, and their pitching’s (mostly) been solid as well. They look to continue that against division rival Texas today. The Rangers have struggled so far this spring, which just shows that their peak has passed, and that they’ll aGAHR (sorry, Dave’s rigged this so a cattle prod shocks me if I start reading things into spring stats). After losing 5 straight, the Rangers pounded Cleveland yesterday 10-0 behind Derek Holland and dozens of other, less MLB-like pitchers. Elvis Andrus has been held out of a few games to allow his massive portrait tattoo to heal, but he’ll be back in the line-up today, before heading off to join the World Baseball Classic tomorrow. Nelson Cruz was scheduled to join the DR team on Saturday, but was felled by chest pains last night – the team thinks it’s an abdominal/chest muscle strain, but they took him to the hospital just to be safe.
In yesterday’s game, Nick Franklin deposited a Matt Cain pitch over the berm in deep right-center. Jon Garland got through an inning on 21 pitches and his arm’s still attached, so that’s progress of a sort. Blake Beavan missed bats (?), induced a flurry of ground balls (??), before giving up a long home run (oh, ok). All in all though, Beavan’s gotten reasonably good results with his new arm slot – I’d be worried that a change like this could reduce his one marketable skill: impeccable control. That hasn’t happened to date, and coupling the angle with more two-seamers could help him avoid so many fly balls. That’s important not only because his HR rate is single-handedly keeping him at/near replacement level and because his OF figures to contain a lot of Mike Morse/Raul Ibanez this year.
James Paxton starts today, as he looks to build on a so-so appearance on Feb. 24th. It was a scoreless inning, he got a punchout, but his velocity and stuff seemed to be a step behind that of his fellow prospects like Danny Hultzen, Brandon Maurer and Taijuan Walker. Now that’s an exceedingly high bar to clear, and it’s not like he was Joe Saunders out there. And as I think I hear the cattle prod charging again, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that this is the peril of Pitch FX: reading too much into an inning, in February, just because, well, what else are you going to do with the data? I’ll be thrilled to see Paxton sitting in the low-90s, working in the occasional change-up with his traditional FB/CU mix. Brandon Maurer figures to pitch as well, and that should be exciting as well. Anthony Fernandez and Andrew Carraway may pitch too.
The line-up:
1: Ackley, 2B
2: Bay, DH
3: Morales, 1B
4: Morse, RF
5: Saunders, CF
6: Shoppach, C
7: Peguero, LF
8: Andino, 3B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: James Paxton
Good to see Ackley/Ryan, but Andino at 3B is a bit underwhelming.
Go M’s!