Almost No Words on Jason Bay
Mike Salk reported last night that the M’s were likely to sign Jason Bay. Today, he’s added that the deal is “close”, so expect it to happen. Because Bay was Figgins’d by the Mets, he’s not going to sign for anything more than the Major League minimum, since he’s still going to be paid the same amount regardless of what his new team signs him for. So, money is irrelevant here. He’s just picking his new team based on potential opportunity and place he wants to play. Because he’s a local-ish kid and the Mariners have an apparent need for hitters, it’s no surprise this is one of his primary choices.
And, on some kind of one year flyer, the answer is usually “hey, why not?” If he has some magical resurgence, well, neat, useful player for the league minimum and no real cost. Seems like a no-brainer, right?
Well, kinda. There’s just one problem here – I’m not sure what roster spot he’d really be fighting for.
If we assume the M’s are going to acquire some kind of full time right-fielder, the OF next year looks to be Saunders/Gutierrez/New Guy with Wells as the fourth OF. If the Mariners go into 2013 with Bay in a starting role, something went terribly wrong. That leaves Wells’ job as the RH fourth outfielder, and to be honest, it’s hard to see Bay providing anything that Wells doesn’t already do better.
Bay might get his power back; Wells already has power. Bay might not be a defensive disaster in a smaller left field; Wells is a pretty good defender who can also cover center field if need be. What does Jason Bay bring to the table that would be in any way different or better than what Casper Wells brings to the table?
Realistically, the only spot Bay would represent any kind of useful upgrade would be DH versus LHPs on days when Jesus Montero is catching. Last year, there were a number of games where Miguel Olivo filled that spot simply because the team wanted to get as many right-handed bats in the line-up as they could, and he was right-handed and occasionally hit a home run. So, Bay might represent an upgrade in that role.
But, if you’re slotting in Montero as the catcher against lefties and you’re carrying Jason Bay, you’re running into roster crunch issues. You still need a third catcher on the roster because Montero is slated to DH against RHPs, so the bench would be Third Catcher/Bay/Wells/Andino. Not exactly a lot of infield depth there, and given the health concerns with Bay and Guti, there’s going to be days when they would be playing with a skeleton staff and have few to no reserves available.
I’m not opposed to taking a flyer on Bay and seeing what he looks like in spring training. I just have a hard time seeing how he fits here, or how he’ll actually help the Mariners. The Mariners shouldn’t give Eric Wedge a worse RH fourth OF option than Casper Wells and tempt him to downgrade that position, as they’ve jerked Wells around enough the last few years, and Bay isn’t going to be any kind of legitimate upgrade in that role. And they don’t really have another role for him.
Bringing him to camp so that other teams can get a look at him and he can be a good veteran influence on the kids? Sure, why not. Putting him on the 25 man roster and hoping he helps the team in 2013? Ehh, I don’t see it.
A Few Words on Billy Butler
The Mariners keep getting linked to Royals DH Billy Butler, because the Mariners are looking for offensive improvements and the Royals are shopping for pitching. So, let’s just say a few words about Billy Butler.
The basics: he’s a 27-year-old DH who is under team control for the next three seasons. The original contract called for him to make $8 million in base salary for each of the next two years, then a $12.5 million team option for 2015, but there are unspecified incentives in the deal that push the 2015 option up to $14.5 million. Additionally, there’s an “assignment bonus” that gets added on if he’s traded, so the actual cost to the M’s would probably be something along the lines of 3/33.
For a +3ish win player, that’s a decent enough price. But it’s not the kind of huge bargain that should require a huge haul of young players in order to acquire him. Mike Napoli, for instance, just signed for 3/39 today, and offered the similar idea of a right-handed 1B/DH upgrade, but also offered the flexibility to catch part-time. Maybe you’d prefer Butler to some degree because he’s younger and his more recent performance is better, but there’s not a huge gap here, and clearly the market for these limited defensive players is limited by the fact that they can only sign with AL teams. Toss in the AL teams that aren’t shopping for a designated hitter, and even the best DH has a pretty limited market value, given the paucity of teams who are in the market for bat-only players.
And that’s one of the reasons I’m not overly interested in paying a high price in talent to acquire Butler. Yes, he’d instantly give the team a terrific hitter who could slot into the middle of the line-up, and people would tell you about how having that kind of guy changes a line-up and takes the pressure off the young kids, allowing them to develop at a better rate.
But, you know who had Billy Butler as the big bat in the middle of a line-up full of young kids last year? The Royals. You know how those kids did? Lousy. Eric Hosmer was bad. Mike Moustakas was bad. The 2012 non-Butler Royals hitters posted a composite wRC+ of 90. The 2012 Mariners had a wRC+ of 87. There’s no evidence that Billy Butler’s rising tide lifted any boats.
The decision on whether the Mariners should acquire a player should hinge on how much better he is than the guy he’d be replacing, not on the mythical impact he may or may not have on the guys who are going to have jobs either way. And realistically, Butler just isn’t a massive upgrade for the Mariners.
As we’ve discussed ad nauseum, the Mariners already have a glut of 1B/DH players. With John Jaso, Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, and Mike Zunino, they have four guys who could theoretically be future building blocks at those three spots. The questions surrounding each are large enough that the team shouldn’t be afraid to add another body to that pile, but they also have to be aware of the fact that any C/1B/DH type who is slotted for regular playing time is going to get at-bats at the expense of one of the better young hitters in the organization, or in Smoak’s case, someone who was supposed to be. It’s one thing to add a guy with position flexibility — like a Nick Swisher — who can give you an extra 1B/DH option while also giving you the option of moving him to the outfield if everything breaks right and the kids all start hitting. It’s another thing to acquire a player who simply aces one of those guys out of a job.
The reward for bringing in Butler — which requires you to basically dump Smoak and make Montero a first baseman or dump Montero — is simply not going to be as high as the reward for bringing in an outfielder who doesn’t displace a guy who has some talent. And, naturally, if the reward is lower, the price also has to be lower as well.
James Paxton for Billy Butler? I’d probably do that, straight up, but I’m not convinced Paxton’s a starter long term. But, when you start talking about adding in a bunch of valuable trade chips, I’m out. The M’s are going to need those trade chips to get an outfielder if they don’t sign a guy like Swisher, and cashing those chips in to get Butler leaves you short in the OF and without a spot for a guy who has more talent than any in-house OF the team could turn to. And it only gets worse when Zunino gets promoted, and now you’re potentially punting a second member of that group.
I’m not all about keeping the kids and waiting for the prospects to develop, but I am in favor of using your trade chips in the best way possible. And Billy Butler is not the best way for the Mariners to use multiple trade chips of real value. Not while they have a glaring hole in the outfield, and not when Butler isn’t even really much of an option at first base, given his defensive limitations. Toss in that his body suggests he won’t age particularly well and that his baserunning is so atrocious that he diminishes his own offensive value, and Butler just isn’t a premium player.
But the Royals are going to want a premium return for him. They’re trying to win in 2013, and turning Butler into a pitching prospect isn’t going to help them with that. The Mariners don’t have what the Royals really want, and compensating with quantity over quality means that the team would to have to push their trade chips in on a +2 win upgrade. It’s just not worth it.
Yes, Butler’s a hitter. The Mariners need hitters. If that’s the end of your analysis, though, you’re not looking deep enough. And when you look deep enough, Butler isn’t a great fit for the M’s, and he’s not the guy they should be trading multiple young players for.
Mariners Looking for a “Defensive Catcher”
It’s not news, necessarily, but Ryan Divish has some useful comments from Jack Zduriencik on what he’s looking for at catcher, after weeks of having the M’s tied to players that didn’t really make any sense for the organization.
“Right now, we’ll have Montero and Jaso catch,” Zduriencik said. “Both guys have their skill set they bring to the table. Neither guy is what you would call a defensive receiver. Both of them are offensive catchers. We’ll have our ears open certainly to see how the right type of catcher would fit. You don’t want to take away their ABs right now just for a defensive catcher. Our needs are, quite frankly, offense. But I do think we have to address a defensive possibility if it exists.”
So, basically, Jack is looking for exactly the kind of catcher we talked about a few months ago – a right-handed catch-and-throw guy who can platoon with Jaso until Zunino arrives and then be easily discarded if need be. Not a full-time catcher. Not a guy who wants multiple years. Not a guy who is a C/1B/DH type. They already have those. They don’t need another full-time catcher. They need a specific skillset – good defender who can hit lefties. Basically, they need Kelly Shoppach, or some version of Kelly Shoppach. And that’s the kind of catcher you should expect the Mariners to acquire.
Mike Napoli’s agent just used the Mariners to get more money from Boston. The Russell Martin thing was never real. That’s just not the kind of player who made sense for the Mariners. It never did, and now everyone can stop acting like catcher is some kind of big hole.
Mike Napoli –> Red Sox
Just a quick update on the free agent most often linked with the M’s: Mike Napoli just signed a three year, $39m deal with the Boston Red Sox. I know signing a C/DH/1B wasn’t the most popular idea around the M’s blogosphere, so for everyone who was nervous about blocking Jaso/Zunino, congratulations! For everyone who sees this as further proof of the M’s ownership driving the franchise into the ground with their miserly spending, please write long, irate comments somewhere else.
Mike Napoli never really made a ton of sense here. More than Russell Martin, but that’s not saying a whole lot. It just never made sense that he’d come here absent a clear overpay, and given that the M’s have John Jaso and Mike Zunino, the M’s never seemed like a good candidate to overpay him. Well-played to his agent or whomever stoked the virtual fire about the M’s kicking the tires, and it’s not like the rumors were totally fabricated – Napoli came to Seattle and met with the FO. But Dave’s reminder’s a good one: the point of Napoli’s trip to Seattle wasn’t to kindle some hope in M’s fans, it was an attempt to make Boston nervous. Whether it worked or not is somewhat irrelevant; he didn’t get the fourth year he was after, but his AAV was a bit higher than I thought it’d be, so that’s essentially a wash.
Garrett Jones < John Jaso
Not overly interested in spending too much time talking about this, but just for fun, here’s a few charts for you to look at.
| Name | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Jones | 0.259 | 0.321 | 0.466 | 0.339 | 112 |
| John Jaso | 0.255 | 0.359 | 0.395 | 0.337 | 116 |
During their careers, John Jaso has been a better hitter than Garret Jones.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Jones | 2,089 | 9% | 20% | 0.207 | 0.288 |
| John Jaso | 1,048 | 13% | 12% | 0.139 | 0.276 |
Here, you see why. Jaso’s high walk/low strikeout combination offsets the difference in power.
| Name | 2013 | 2013 Salary Estimate | FA year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Jones | 31 | 4.4M | 2014 |
| John Jaso | 29 | 1.6M | 2015 |
And, finally, the vitals. Jaso is younger, cheaper, and under team control for one more year.
Oh yeah – he can also catch. The idea of swapping John Jaso for Garrett Jones is so ridiculous on its face that you should just reject it out of hand. The idea of throwing in additional value to make the Jaso/Jones swap is beyond laughable. There’s no reason to think that this was ever seriously discussed.
The Short Term Fix
As we head toward the winter meetings, there’s few questions that the Mariners are going to try to do something fairly significant. They’ve made it clear that they have money to spend, they have young players to trade, and they have a glaring hole in the outfield that needs addressing. You can bet that they’ve called on Justin Upton, they’ve talked to Nick Swisher‘s agent, and they’ve kicked pretty much every big free agent tire they can find.
But, as Jack is fond of saying, it takes two to tango, and it’s possible that Swisher might end up in Boston, the D’Backs might not want what the Mariners have to sell, and that for various reasons, the team might not be able to land anyone who would be seen as a major addition. I’m not rooting for this outcome, but the organization at least needs to have backup plans in place, and be able to make moves to upgrade the roster even if they’re not as impactful as the ones they’re hoping to be able to make.
So, with that in mind, here are a few guys that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the organization go after if their original options fall through. These guys are more short term stopgaps than long term solutions, but they would have some appeal in terms of upgrading the 2013 team, at least theoretically.
Mike Morse, 1B/DH/cover-your-eyes-OF
You may remember Morse as an underpowered guy who couldn’t defend even a corner OF position and got shipped off because the Mariners had a similar prospect in Matt Tuiasasopo. Of course, Morse went to Washington and started hitting for power, so swapping him for Ryan Langerhans doesn’t look so hot in retrospect. But, after yesterday’s acquisition of Denard Span, the Nationals are now shopping Morse, as he no longer fits into their plans. They’ve put up with his horrific outfield defense long enough, and between the injury problems and his awful approach at the plate, they’re not convinced that he’s a championship caliber first baseman. So, rather than pay him $7 million to be a pinch-hitter in the final year of his contract, they’re looking to see if anyone else wants to take him off their hands.
Morse isn’t a great fit for the Mariners in that he’s something of a clone of what they already have, but if the organization wants to bring in a guy to challenge but not completely displace Justin Smoak, Morse could be a 1B/DH/occasional OF option. In terms of overall profile, he’s basically Jesus Montero — an overly aggressive right-handed hitter with opposite field power and no real defensive value. He has more present power than Montero at the moment, though, and is a better bet to be able to defend first base in 2013, so adding him to the 1B/DH mix would give the team another option if they wanted to continue to mix and match. He’s more of a depth guy than an impact player, but the price to acquire him won’t be overly high, and his $7 million price tag for 2013 isn’t especially onerous. I’m not a big fan, and I don’t think he should ever play the outfield again, but he wouldn’t be the worst guy to have around for 400-500 plate appearances if they want someone to push Montero and Smoak.
Jason Kubel, 1B/DH/cover-your-eyes OF
Meet the left-handed version of Mike Morse. He’s also an adventure in the outfield without the kind of bat that makes that worth it, so he profiles better as a 1B/DH type. He’s got a better approach at the plate than Morse does, but he doesn’t have the same kind of power, so it’s more of a trade-off than an improvement. And, like Morse, he’s got one year left on his contract, which pays him $7.5 million in 2013 and then includes a team option for 2014. Kubel’s got a better track record than Morse, and the D’Backs don’t have the same need to dump him, so he’d probably cost a little bit more in trade, but we’re still not talking about a guy who would cost you a premier prospect here. If the M’s wanted a left-handed platoon guy who could fit in at 1B/DH and play some OF on days when a groundballer was on the mound, Kubel’s not the worst player ever. Which is about the nicest thing I can say about him.
Ryan Ludwick, OF
If the M’s would rather just sign a short-term guy rather than trade for one, then Ludwick’s probably in the mix. He had a career resurgence last year in Cincinnati, but given that he’s going to be 34 next year, he’s not in line for any kind of long term deal. The Reds want him back but the bidding probably isn’t going beyond a two year deal, and he might not even get that. As a dead pull right-hander, he’d have to hope that the fences coming in at Safeco were going to make a huge difference, and he probably doesn’t have fond memories of the place from his days in the AL, but if the M’s are the highest bidder, that can all be water under the bridge. My guess is he comes in at around the same annual salary as Morse/Kubel, so you’re looking at the trade-off between giving him an extra year versus giving up some kind of player to acquire either of the other two.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF
I’m putting him near the bottom even though he’s the best player on this list because he’s also the least likely to be a fit for the team. The Indians are willing to trade him because he’ll be a free agent next year and Scott Boras doesn’t generally do contract extensions prior to hitting the market, so any team paying for Choo has to look at him as a rental. But, because he’s the Indians best hitter, they’re not just going to give him away. He’d cost a real prospect – probably someone like James Paxton. And, with only one year of value coming back, given his platoon issues and declining defensive skills, that’s probably not a price I’d want to pay. Of course, if the Indians come down in terms of what they want in return, then maybe this is a better fit than expected, but I’m not holding my breath.
Travis Hafner, DH
This is still the guy I’d go after. He’s not a full-time player, and you just deal with the fact that he’s going to spend half the year on the DL, but when he plays, he hits. He can’t defend even first base, so he’s a DH-only, but if the organization is willing to get more serious about Montero as a first baseman, then they don’t really need another 1B, since they can make Montero and Smoak fight for playing time at that spot. In terms of impact at the plate, Hafner is pretty similar to Swisher, and obviously he’ll cost a lot less. If you’re willing to trade the defensive versatility and the durability for some upside when he is able to go, then Hafner could be a pretty nice bargain. And, of course, as a DH-only, the market for his services is going to be limited, which will keep the bidding down, so he’s probably the cheapest guy on this list too. At $3 or $4 million with some playing time incentives, Hafner could be a nice part-time offensive booster.
A Quick Note On Rumors
Preface – there are some really good reporters covering Major League Baseball, and they have really good sources and they get really good information. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman seem to break about 90% of the stories in Major League Baseball between them, and there are countless other guys in local markets who are really well plugged into their organizations and provide accurate information a great majority of the time.
But, unfortunately, not all reporters are created equal, and not all anonymous sources are as good as others. And, because of the way the baseball rumor industry works, it’s often hard to tell a rumor that has substance behind it from one that is speculation, spin, or just out-and-out wrong.
For instance, over the last week, we’ve seen stories that Mike Napoli has three year offers out from multiple clubs, and we’ve seen stories that Mike Napoli doesn’t have any offers from any clubs. We’ve seen stories that the Orioles are working hard on a deal with Mark Reynolds to avoid having to non-tender him before Friday’s deadline to offer arbitration, and we’ve seen stories that the Orioles haven’t had any contact with Reynolds’ representatives to discuss a 2013 contract. Today, we saw reports that the Mets most recent offer to David Wright made it possible that a deal could get done this week, and then David Wright and his agent both felt it necessary to issue a public statement that no deal was close and that the reports were inaccurate.
Obviously, some of these reports have to fall in the just “flat out wrong” category, as they can’t all be true. There are others that are more ambiguous, and are some shade of true, but might not really reflect the reality of the situation. And, of course, some are right on. For instance, Ken Rosenthal was saying for a few weeks that the Royals acquisition of Ervin Santana could lead them to sign Jeremy Guthrie to a backloaded three year deal, which is exactly what they did. He clearly had good information on that, and it’s why he’s probably the best in the business at the rumor game right now.
Not everyone is Ken Rosenthal, though, and not even Rosenthal gets everything right every time. And that’s why I’d suggest that you filter all of the rumors you’re going to see over the next week or so through the BS detector. Those rumors that the Mariners are heavily in on Russell Martin? I’m sure the Mariners called him, and on a one year deal, he’d make some sense in the same way Mike Napoli would, but the organization isn’t going to be committing long term to a catcher whose bat doesn’t play at another position. Giving Mike Zunino a veteran mentor for spring training and a guy who can hold down the fort for 2013 is one thing – signing a guy who is clearly going to want a full-time job behind the plate for the next three to four years is something else entirely.
So, why are the Mariners linked to a guy like Martin? Because pretty much every rumor about the Mariners is sourced from someone not working for the Mariners. The M’s front office is famously tight-lipped, and they just don’t really leak anything in advance. No one knew the Pineda trade was going down. No one knew the Ichiro trade was going down. They just happened, with no forewarning, and no real notice.
Rumors about the Mariners almost always come from player agents or baseball operations officials who work for other teams. Sometimes, these guys have legitimately good information about what the M’s are going to do, and sometimes, they share that information with the media. Not every rumor about the organization is BS. But you have to remember where they came from, and judge accordingly.
For instance, Russell Martin’s agent is incentivized to make it appear that his client is heavily in demand from multiple organizations. The Yankees want him back, but the Yankees also only want to sign one year contracts this winter, as they’re attempting to clear the books next year to get under the luxury tax threshold and reset their tax rate for future years. If Martin wants a multi-year deal from New York, his agent needs to give the Yankees a reason to give them multiple years. And, with all due respect to the Pirates, they’re not exactly the biggest stick in the drawer.
The Mariners, though, can theoretically represent a real stick. Ownership has publicly said that payroll is going up. They haven’t fielded a good offensive team in years. Everyone and their mother knows that the Mariners called every single free agent hitter on the market to express some degree of interest. And, if you’re just looking at the organization from an outsider’s perspective, the team has a hole at catcher, since regular starter Miguel Olivo won’t be back in 2013.
The necessary pieces are there for the Mariners to act as leverage to get more money from other teams. I’m not saying that’s why Mike Napoli’s agent shipped him up to Seattle for a visit, but the very public nature of his tour has a nice whiff of grandstanding, especially in light of the fact that the Rangers didn’t even make Napoli a qualifying offer. It’s tough to argue that they’re a serious threat to give him a multi-year contract when they wouldn’t even give him $13 million on a one year deal, and the only other city he’s visited was Boston — the spot that most people expected him to land heading into the winter. Without that trip to Seattle, though, Napoli’s basically got the Red Sox bidding against a Rangers team that has, to some extent, already showed its hand. They’ll take Napoli back, but at a reduced price and only after they’ve explored other options. That’s not really the kind of pressure that starts a bidding war.
Getting the Mariners involved, though – that puts some pressure on the Red Sox. I’m not saying the trip was entirely grandstanding for Boston’s benefit, or even that it was primarily that, but you can’t discount that benefit to Napoli’s camp. Just like you can’t discount the benefit to Martin’s camp that the Mariners are interested in him too. And that you can’t discount the benefit to the Mariners in negotiating with Napoli if his agent thinks that they see Martin as a legitimate alternative.
This is how this all works. Leaks are intentional, and often are intended for public use to serve a specific purpose. Most leaks about the Mariners don’t even come from the Mariners. Usually, when the Mariners are about to do something significant of note, no one has any idea until it’s basically done.
So, don’t get too worked up about what Jack is doing talking to Russell Martin’s agent, when Martin is seeking a four year contract and only fits behind the plate. Just laugh it off, and realize that these rumors are frequently used as motivational tools for the benefit of others, and are sometimes just out and out wrong.
The Mariners are going to do some stuff this winter. I’m willing to bet a significant amount of money that the stuff they’re going to do will not include signing Russell Martin to a long term contract. Some rumors just don’t pass the BS test. Don’t take them too seriously.
The Dodgers’ New TV Deal, the Mariners, and Irrational Exuberance
Just less than one year ago, the Angels sent shockwaves through the baseball world by negotiating a long-term cable TV deal worth nearly $3 billion, and by signing two big free agents to (back loaded) contracts. The Rangers topped that with a $3 billion deal of their own, spread over 15 years. The Mariners, whose 10-year, $450 million deal with Fox Sports (now ROOT Sports) was one of the most lucrative in the game at the time, suddenly looked indigent in comparison.
As you’ve probably heard now, the Dodgers just inked a new deal with Fox Sports worth between 6 and 7 billion – a deal which obliterated the previous record, and seems to justify every penny of the Guggenheim Group’s $2 billion deal to purchase the Dodgers from Frank McCourt. There are a number of rational responses to this, from lamenting the gap between rich- and poor teams, as Jeff Passan does here,* to counting the days until the M’s window to renegotiate their current deal opens, to making comparisons with tulip bulbs and the US housing market. This post is mostly the latter.
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On Mike Napoli and Wil Myers
Over the last few days, a couple of rumors have kicked up in regards to the Mariners. Not surprisingly, both involve the team acquiring a hitter, because, well, you know. It’s no secret the M’s want to improve their offense this winter, and every other team, agent, and writer in America knows that too. Teams with hitters available are going to call the Mariners. Agents with hitters available are going to call the Mariners. The Mariners are going to call them all back. Rumors are inevitable, which is why you shouldn’t take most of them too seriously.
These two, though, maybe you should take a little more seriously than others.
Let’s start with the Mike Napoli rumors, which have a little more teeth. On Thursday, Jim Bowden reported that Napoli was holding out for a four year contract from the Red Sox, and he might be able to get it from the Mariners. On Friday, Ryan Divish noted that Napoli has indeed already met with the Mariners, which goes beyond just the “hey, don’t sign without checking in with us” phone call that they made to every free agent hitter with a pulse. A meeting means that there’s enough mutual interest there that something could happen.
There are a few potential problems with a Napoli/Mariners get together, however. While Napoli’s calling card is his power, his primary position is still catcher — he’s caught 500+ innings every year since his rookie season of 2006 — and reports suggest that Napoli is looking for a team who will continue to deploy him behind the plate with regularity. The Mariners could use a 2013 part-time right-handed catcher who can mash if they’re ready to give up on Jesus Montero behind the plate — as I think they should be — but no one is suggesting that Napoli is interested in coming to Seattle on a one year deal. If Boston is willing to go three years, then the Mariners probably aren’t getting him for less than four, and if Napoli views himself as a catcher beyond 2013, that could create some problems in Seattle.
Obviously, Mike Zunino made a lot of noise this summer, and while you could justify giving him a full year in Tacoma, you don’t really want to block your best prospects path to the big leagues by giving out a long term deal to a 31-year-old who is already showing signs of decline. If Napoli is interested in coming to Seattle, it would have to be pretty clear that he’d be looking at a 1B/DH job for most of his time here, and his days at catcher would be winding down after this season. That’s not a great sales pitch, though, especially when the other team reportedly bidding for his services can point to The Green Monster and a much better history of winning. Napoli knows he’s going to spend a decent amount of his time at 1B/DH no matter where signs, but if he’s serious about staying behind the plate as more than a backup beyond this coming season, the M’s could run into a problem when Zunino is ready for the Majors.
And, realistically, even if he’s totally on board for 2013 being his last season as a catcher, there’s still a roster issue if you bring him as a 1B/DH. With John Jaso and Jesus Montero, the team already has a couple of their better offensive performers locked into C/1B/DH positions. If you sign Napoli, one of them is out of a job as soon as Zunino is ready. Yeah, Jaso’s probably a platoon player coming off a career year, and Montero’s still got a ways to go before he’s an impact big league hitter, but there’s a difference between upgrading on a glaring weakness like the team has in the outfield and upgrading on a position where the team already has viable alternatives. The cost of doing the latter is simply higher.
If the Mariners could turn around and flip Montero for something interesting at another position, maybe it’s worth doing. It’s no secret that I’m not as high on him as a lot of others are, so I’m not dead set against replacing him, but the overall series of moves would have to make sense. They’d either have to have a deal in place that isn’t selling low on him coming off a bad rookie season, or make it a shorter term move that allowed him to go back to Tacoma, learn how to play first base, and rejoin the team in 2014 as a better player. On a one year deal, that situation is kind of interesting. On a longer term contract, though, you’re punting one of your best offensive talents, which makes the improvement less of an upgrade.
And Napoli’s not exactly a sure thing himself. The massive spike in his strikeout rate should scare you. The fact that he only hit nine doubles last year should scare you. The fact that he’s a catcher on the wrong side of 30 should scare you. Maybe he goes Josh Willingham on the league and shows everyone that the strikeout rate wasn’t a trend, but there’s some legitimate downside to giving him a long term deal. Given his age, his body type, his skillset, and the fact that he’s already logged 4,000+ big league innings behind the plate, counting on him to be a productive player in 2014 and beyond is a gamble. At the right price, it might be a gamble worth making, but if you’re outbidding the Red Sox, it’s probably not the right price anymore.
Given the Mariners already have a bunch of C/1B/DH types, I don’t think I’m all that interested in Napoli beyond a one year deal. Texas saw him up close and personal the last two years and wouldn’t even extend him a qualifying offer for 2013. There are too many red flags here for me to be that excited about a three or four year deal for Napoli. One with a vesting option and a bunch of incentives? Okay. Maybe even two guaranteed if the price is cheap enough. But once we start talking about the age 33 or 34 season of a catcher with old player skills, I’m not real interested in paying a high price for those years.
At the opposite end of that spectrum is the never-ending rumors of a Mariners-Royals trade. No, not that weird “trade the farm for Billy Butler” idea that apparently took hold last week, which never made any sense to begin with. Instead, in the wake of the Royals signing Jeremy Gutrhie, Jerry Crasnick and others have suggested that the team is interested in swapping a minor league hitter for a “young pitcher”, as they attempt to fill out their rotation without giving up any pieces from their big league roster to do it.
The Royals have exactly one minor league hitter interesting enough to land a premium young arm, and his name is Wil Myers. In fact, Myers is a top-5 prospect in the entire sport, ranking up there with the likes of Dylan Bundy, Jurickson Profar, and Oscar Taveras. He’s a 21-year-old outfield with some serious power who held his own in Triple-A for nearly an entire season after pounding Double-A last year. He’s not a perfect prospect — he still has some contact issues, primarily — but he looks a lot like a right-handed Jay Bruce, and he could develop into an above average right fielder within a year or two, with some real star potential down the line.
Myers, of course, is exactly the kind of player the Mariners need. As an outfielder who hasn’t even made his big league debut yet, he could fill a hole on the roster without being a short term fix, and could grow with the rest of the kids already here. Unlike Zunino or the rest of the bats on the farm, he doesn’t need any more time in Triple-A. He’s ready to step in and play big league ball on Opening Day next year. He’s a prospect in the sense that he’s never made the majors, but this isn’t a kid that you need to wait for him to develop. He’s a long term asset who can also offer 2013 production. The best of both worlds.
Which is why he’s not going to be easy to get. While we talk about Walker, Hultzen, and Paxton a lot, the reality is that none of them are particularly close to being big league ready. You could dream on a guy like Paxton or Hultzen helping out in the second half if their command improves, but in reality, they’re probably more 2014 pieces. And there are teams who would be just as interested in Myers as the Mariners that have big league arms they could offer up instead of the wait-and-see kids that Jack Z can dangle.
The Rays are the obvious competition here. They’re losing B.J. Upton, so they have a hole in their outfield. They don’t have the payroll to replace him with a premium free agent, and have to rely on continually restocking the team with pre-arbitration players who can produce while making the league minimum. And they have Major League youngsters like Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore that they could offer up, both of whom already have legitimate big league experience and could step right into the Royals rotation without missing a beat.
Taijaun Walker’s a nice prospect, but he’s not Matt Moore. James Paxton isn’t Jeremy Hellickson. Danny Hultzen isn’t Jon Niese, if the Mets decided to get involved in things. And, whenever you’re talking about the Royals, you can’t count out the Braves, who are loaded with pitching talent and are Dayton Moore’s favorite trade partners, given his history with the organization. There are a bunch of teams that would want Wil Myers and can simply offer up better young pitchers than the Mariners have.
If the Mariners want Myers, the hope would have to be that the Royals also loved Nick Franklin. Putting Franklin in a deal with one of the Big Three probably keeps you in the race for Myers, even if other teams are willing to give up an arm that is a little closer to big league ready. The M’s pitch would basically be quantity over quality, or at least, enough quantity to justify the drop-off in quality.
Is Jack ready to pay that kind of price for a kid who hasn’t even seen the big leagues yet? After all, even if you just look at the prospects as wild cards whose futures can’t be predicted, they’re still essentially the only trade chips Jack really has. Regardless of whether or not you’re interested in waiting for the kids to develop, they at least have value as currency, and the organization will have to decide if Myers is the right kid to give up their only real currency in trade for.
Because if it’s not Myers, a pick two of Walker/Hultzen/Paxton/Franklin opens a lot of other doors, and if you trade two of those guys to get Myers, you’re not left with a ton of chips to make other deals. At that point, you have to be pretty confident you’re signing a decent hitting free agent, or else we could be left with a winter like last year where the only real improvement is supposed to come from a kid who just spent the year in Triple-A. Myers could be a nice addition to the team, but he’d be a nice addition that would go along with the signing of a guy like Nick Swisher, not a move that replaces that kind of upgrade.
So, in both instances, I’d suggest not holding your breath. It’s possible that the Mariners could sign Napoli and trade for Myers. Or it’s possible that Napoli could choose Boston and the Rays could simply ace the Mariners out of a deal with KC by putting Matt Moore on the table. I’m sure the Mariners are exploring their options with both Napoli and the Royals. Maybe it will lead to something. Maybe it won’t. In both cases, whether we even want it to happen depends on the price. Napoli on a one year deal? Sold. Paxton and Franklin for Myers? Sold. But, at those prices, other teams are going to be saying the same thing.
Figgins DFA’d, Five Added
Do a happy dance – Chone Figgins is finally gone. The Mariners designated both he and recently claimed Scott Cousins for assignment, clearing them off the 40 man roster so that they could add a total of five players who otherwise would have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft. The five:
SP Brandon Maurer
3B/OF Vinnie Catricala
LHP Bobby LaFromboise
LHP Anthony Fernandez
OF Julio Morban
Left unprotected were LHP Brian Moran and RHP Andrew Carraway, who both could be selected and stashed in a bullpen somewhere next year. But, neither are particularly high upside guys, so even if the organization loses either one, it’s not a particularly huge deal. And, of course, they might not get selected, and if they do, they might very well get returned. So, I wouldn’t lose much sleep over it.
Especially since Figgins has finally, mercifully been DFA’d. Now the team can get back to actually using a 25 man roster again.