M’s Trade Trayvon Robinson for Robert Andino
Well, that didn’t take long. A few hours after I said to expect a trade of Trayvon Robinson or Mike Carp, the Mariners shipped Robinson to Baltimore for infielder Robert Andino. Acquiring Andino doesn’t help them with their roster decisions today, but he can fill the utility infielder/backup SS spot on the roster, and could actually be okay in that role.
He was pretty lousy for the Orioles last year, but overall, his career numbers suggest that he’s a decent enough reserve infielder. He’s a career .235/.296/.323 hitter, which isn’t great, but he can actually play shortstop, and believe it or not, there aren’t that many big league shortstops who can post a .300 OBP anymore. For instance, last year, the Mariners gave this roster spot to Munenori Kawasaki, and you probably don’t need a reminder as to how dreadful he was.
Overall, his total package has been worth +1 WAR in 1,400 career plate appearances, so he’s marginally better than the kind of guy you’d expect to grab on waivers. He’s arbitration eligible for a second time, but given his lousy 2012 season, he won’t get much of a raise, and will probably make $1.5 to $2.0 million in salary next year. He’s not any kind of long term solution or a huge upgrade, but he’ll make the team a little bit better on days when Brendan Ryan can’t go than they were last year.
Robinson going away isn’t any kind of loss. He simply doesn’t have the kind of skillset that works in the big leagues. Low contact/low power is a bad recipe for offensive success, and Robinson’s putrid throwing arm limited to left field, so he wasn’t even capable of defending multiple positions or playing an up-the-middle spot. He’s a fifth outfielder at best, and the Mariners shouldn’t have had any interest in trying to squeeze him onto the roster this spring. Since he was out of options, they were eventually just going to pass him through waivers, so this way, they turn him into something that might be marginally useful instead.
It’s basically a lateral move, but it’s a lateral move that gives them a Major League backup SS, which they didn’t have previously. Call it the smallest of small victories.
Today Should Be Chone Figgins DFA Day
You’re going to see the Mariners do some stuff today, as we’re at the deadline to add players to the 40 man roster who would otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Brandon Maurer is the only absolute lock to get added, but I’d expect the team to protect a few of their reliever-types, including Bobby LaFromboise, Brian Moran, Andrew Carraway, and Anthony Fernandez. These are all low upside guys who aren’t premium prospects, but LaFromboise, Moran, and Fernandez are all left-handed, so they could pretty easily slide into a non-contender’s bullpen in a situational role, and Carraway throws enough strikes to be someone’s mop-up guy in 2013. These are the kinds of guys who get taken in the Rule 5 draft, so adding them to the 40 man is probably the best bet to keep them in the organization.
Of course, if they want to add Maurer and those four pitchers, then they’re going to have to open up two spots on the 40 man roster, which currently sits at 37. And, of course, the obvious guy on the 40 man roster to get rid of is Chone Figgins. Of course, he’s been the obvious guy to get rid of for a long time, and the organization has refused to do it, but now his presence on the roster even one more day threatens to cost them a prospect. At some point, the Mariners are just going to have to swallow their pride and pay Figgins to go away. Losing a prospect in the Rule 5 draft in order to preserve the right to do it later is silly. There’s no reason for Figgins to be on the roster anymore, and now they need his spot. This is the easiest decision Jack has to make all winter.
I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw a few others removed from the 40 man as well — in order to open up a few extra spots for guys like Vinnie Catricala or Danny Farquhar — but likely through minor trade rather than DFA. Both Mike Carp and Trayvon Robinson are out of options and unlikely to be part of the Mariners roster next year, so shipping them off for a non-roster prospect would also clear up roster spots for some additions. Keep in mind, the Mariners are going to have to clear more 40 man space if they sign a free agent, so these two are unlikely to make it through the winter, even if they aren’t traded today. Additionally, they could dump Francisco Martinez or Chance Ruffin without losing any sleep, though then they’d essentially be admitting that the Doug Fister trade was a bust, so there might be some face saving involved there as well.
Regardless, you’re going to see some stuff happen. A few guys are getting added. A few others are probably going away. Hopefully, one of those is Chone Figgins.
Why I’m Not a Fan of Losing on Purpose
I try to limit my posts that are just links to my other posts, but this one pertains to the Mariners off-season plans, so it’s relevant here too, I think.
Why I’m Not a Fan of Losing on Purpose
I hope you read the whole thing. If you don’t, though, here are the final two paragraphs that basically sum up my thoughts on the rebuilding process, and why I’ve been continually advocating for the team to make improvements to their roster rather than just sitting around and waiting for their prospects to develop.
There’s too much variation in baseball for teams to simply accept their most recent record as evidence of their short term future. There’s too many things that simply can’t be projected — and too much uncertainty around the things we do know — for more than one or two teams per year to simply punt the entire season and lose on purpose. Trading from the present to improve the future is one thing; trading from the present simply because we see no future is another thing entirely, and requires a level of certainty in forecasting that we simply don’t have.
If our forecast for a team is 65 to 90 wins, then making smart moves to improve the roster and increase the likelihood of getting towards that 90 win part of the bell curve could very well be a better move for the future of the franchise than blowing up the roster and accepting the ramifications of a 65 win season. Rebuilding can be the right path to take, especially if you get the kind of offer for your veterans that can inject a real talent boost into the organization. Just dumping good players because there’s no point in having veterans on a team with a mean forecast of 78 wins, though? That’s just putting too much faith in what we know. If we’re going to stress honesty, let’s honestly admit that we don’t know enough to suggest that a 78 win team should give up hope and lose on purpose.
If the M’s bring in some veterans this winter, I know there’s going to be a group of people who complain that they’re just “blocking the kids” and so forth. A decent amount of you guys complained about signing guys like Kevin Millwood last year. I get that there’s a pretty good sized crop of fans who think that a team should either be going for it or going young, and everything in between is just a waste of time.
I just think that mentality is completely wrong. There’s a real value in putting wins on the board, even if they may very well not be the wins that put the team in the playoffs. The Mariners shouldn’t look at their 2013 roster and decide that it’s not good enough to make real improvements. They should look at their 2013 roster and decide that it’s not good enough, so they should make real improvements.
Checking In on the M’s Fall/Winter Leaguers
Last time, we focused on James Paxton and Mike Zunino for obvious reasons, but Carson Smith’s adding his name to the discussion by dominating the AFL at times. In my last update, about a month ago, I noted that Carson Smith hadn’t really dominated like I thought he might (after a brilliant second half performance for High Desert). The following day, Smith began a dominating run, with 15 Ks and no walks in a bit over 10 innings. He gave up a pair of walks this afternoon, and his velocity was more in the 91-93 range as opposed to 92-94, but he’s demonstrated that he could be an intriguing bullpen arm for the M’s very soon.
I’d heard about Smith’s velocity, but unlike with Carter Capps or Stephen Pryor, Smith doesn’t have the pure pace to blow fastballs by hitters. Instead, he throws a very tough sinker. Brooks Baseball has some edited velocity/movement readings here, and what stands out is just how much sink Smith gets on a 93mph pitch. He’s right in line with some of the most well-known sinker-balling relievers, from Ronald Belisario (who throws a tad harder) to Sean Burnett (who throws much slower, and from the left side). Just eyeballing it, Smith seems to be a lot like Jared Hughes of the Pirates, who put together a decent year for Pittsburgh by keeping the ball on the ground and out of the zone (yes, OUT of the zone). To be sure, Hughes has been better at getting grounders, but there’s no real reason Smith couldn’t, and Smith could generate more K’s if his change-up gets a bit better. Jared Hughes isn’t an elite pitcher, but he’s quite useful, and he brings something to the table that most of the M’s bullpen doesn’t. K’s and GBs are always a great combination, and Smith’s skillset would look good in the M’s potentially dominant bullpen, where the only two GB guys were moved to the rotation by the end of the year.
Staying in Arizona, Nick Franklin continues to rake (from the left side). With his sixth double of the year today, he’s got his slugging percentage over .500 and has reportedly been solid defensively at 2B. The stats are fine, but I was more interested in his strikeouts. I saw Franklin several times in Tacoma, and came away a bit worried about the swing-and-miss in his game. He struggled mightily in his first couple of PCL months, striking out in 30% of his plate appearances in June/July. But his relentless work in the cage seemed to pay off a bit, as his K% dropped to 15% from August through the end of the season. Of course, these samples are miniscule, but visually, he often looked overmatched against good pitchers. In the AFL, Franklin’s contact rate looks pretty similar to his August numbers, and he’s posting an even K:BB ratio from the right side. The platoon splits are still an issue, as every one of Franklin’s extra base hits have come against right-handed pitchers. The move to 2B seems fairly clear as well, so it’s not like this AFL campaign has been an unalloyed success, but I didn’t think Franklin looked ready to help the M’s in early 2013 when I first saw him, but he’s changing my mind.
Stefen Romero’s still hitting well in limited action; the 2B/3B/DH hit his second AFL HR yesterday, and the M’s 2012 Minor League Player of the Year continues to rake (and move around the diamond). Vinnie Catricala’s been playing a lot of LF/DH, but hit bat is finally heating up, as he’s got his AFL batting line back into respectable territory. Still, a move down the defensive spectrum’s coincided with a year-long slump, and that’s not good for a guy looking to get a 40-man spot in the next few weeks.
James Paxton was shut down after he reached his innings-limit, so the M’s replaced him with Seon-Gi Kim, who had been tabbed to play in the Australian League. Instead, he’s made a couple of appearances in Arizona – the first was a disastrous partial inning in which he gave up three runs in 1/3 of an inning, but he came back with a scoreless inning the other day. He featured a 91-93mph fastball and a hard slider (that he often struggled to control). Kim was a fairly big signing back in 2009, but he’s struggled a bit in the Midwest League, so facing AFL hitters is quite a step up for him.
Mike Zunino remains solid at the plate, and a bit questionable behind it. After several games without a stolen base allowed, he (and his pitchers, to be fair) gave up four today. I could complain about his somewhat elevated K rate, but it’s really nit-picking. Zunino’s bat has been much better – sooner – than expected, and that gives the M’s some tough calls to make next spring.
In the Caribbean Leagues, the best stat line belongs to Carlos Peguero, who put together a very good 28-AB line for Gigantes in the Dominican League. Of course, he put together a solid line for Gigantes last year, and then put up an eerily similar line for Tacoma. You know who Carlos Peguero is. Everyone knows who Carlos Peguero is, and there’s essentially nothing he could do in a handful of at-bats in the Dominican Winter League that would appreciably change that impression. That said, I look forward to seeing him in Tacoma again next year, both because dingers are fun, and the M’s don’t really do that sort of thing, and because it’s fascinating to see how much mileage Peguero gets out of his approach in the PCL. There are many ways to be a “AAAA” player, and there are many ways to describe the gulf between AAA and the majors, and Peguero is a living embodiment of one of them. AAA hurlers can make him look foolish at times, but they offer up enough mistakes that he’s able to turn the tables on them fairly often. MLB pitchers, apparently, do not make those mistakes.
Roenis Elias has scuffled for Lara in the Venezuelan League – he lost some time to a visa issue, but has pitched in two games thus far, most recently on Tuesday. Cesar Jimenez has been solid, but the odds that he returns to the M’s is minimal – though he would have the chance to add to his record of playing for Tacoma in more separate seasons than anyone. He’s at 7, and I’m pretty sure he’s not itching to make it 8. Danny Farquhar continues his push for a 40-man spot with solid relief work in Venezuela. The small righty improved his K rate and his command in 2012, and could get picked up in the Rule 5 draft if he’s not protected.
There’s not much to go on, but Carlos Triunfel and Francisco Martinez – two young prospects who could really use a breakout performance after so-so seasons – haven’t done a whole lot in the Caribbean. Martinez’s power is still AWOL; the ex-Tiger prospect slugged below .300 for Jackson this season which necessitated a move to CF. He’s playing CF in Venezuela, albeit sparingly, and still hasn’t shown a lot of pop. Triunfel was used primarily as a pinch-hitter/pinch-runner, so there’s essentially nothing to go on statistically. His versatility make him a candidate for the 25th man on the M’s bench, but the M’s could conceivably go with Nick Franklin to swap offense for defense. I can’t believe he’s still just 22 years old.
As always, if you’d like a complete list of M’s prospects in the AFL/Australia/Venezuela/the Dominican, MLB.com has it here.
Nick Swisher and Prince Fielder, Compared
Prince Fielder casts a large shadow, both physically and figuratively, as even a year removed from his signing with Detroit, his name still continues to be linked to discussions of what the Mariners might do or should have done in the past. Ever since I advocated for Swisher in the off-season plan, a common response has been that we wouldn’t have to overextend ourselves for a mediocre player like Swisher if we had just stepped up and signed a real difference maker like Fielder a year ago. Any discussion of the off-season always begins with how this is not a good free agent class, unlike last year, when real stars like Fielder were available.
It’s funny how labels often do far move to deceive than inform. Rather than actually stopping and looking at the relative merits of the two players, the perception of the two is vastly different simply based on the kinds of words that are used to describe them. So, I figure its time we just drop the labels and actually show you exactly what the differences between the two have been over the last several years.
First, here are just their raw stats from 2010 to 2012:
| Name | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | HBP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Fielder | 2,096 | 307 | 94 | 2 | 100 | 306 | 67 | 48 |
| Nick Swisher | 1,894 | 268 | 99 | 3 | 76 | 230 | 8 | 15 |
Fielder wins in a landslide across the board. 39 more hits. 24 more home runs. 76 more walks. Swisher’s totals simply don’t stack up, and this is why having a real cleanup hitter like Fielder is just so much more valuable than a complementary piece like Swisher, right?
Well, take a look at the numbers again, only this time, we’ve normalized the number of plate appearances. After all, the argument for Fielder is about quality of results, not quantity. No one’s arguing against Swisher because they think he gets hurt too much, but because he simply doesn’t provide the same impact when he’s at the plate. So, let’s rescale those numbers to 600 plate appearances each, or about one full season for a regular position player.
| Name | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | IBB | HBP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Fielder | 600 | 88 | 27 | 1 | 29 | 88 | 19 | 14 |
| Nick Swisher | 600 | 85 | 31 | 1 | 24 | 73 | 3 | 5 |
Three more singles. Five more home runs, but four fewer doubles. This isn’t over a week, or even a month. This is over an entire season. We’re talking a gap of four additional base hits, with only one of those hits being an extra base knock. The real advantage Fielder has over Swisher as a hitter – intentional walks and number of times hit by pitch. The unintentional walk rates are identical, as basically the entire difference in times reaching base is IBBs and HBPs. Those things have value, of course, and no one’s going to argue that Swisher is Fielder’s equal at the plate, but we should at least understand what the actual differences between them over the last three years have actually been.
Three extra singles, one more extra base hit, and two dozen extra free passes to first base, either the hard way or the way that makes us all boo the pitcher for being a coward. That’s what the difference between Fielder’s .291/.409/.521 line and Swisher’s .274/.366/.478 line work out too over one full year’s worth of plate appearances.
I’m sorry, but you just can’t make a mountain of that kind of mole hill. Fielder’s a really good hitter, but there’s no way you can justify the claim that Swisher is just a marginal role player when the actual difference has been four extra hits and 24 extra IBB/HBPs per 600 plate appearances. Especially when a large part of the dismissal of Swisher comes from discounting the value of walks. You can’t simultaneously dismiss getting on base via the free pass and then also claim that Fielder is a dramatically superior offensive player. His durability, and the extra 200 plate appearances he’s received over the last three years by playing everyday, certainly has value and should be factored in, but make sure that you realize that a lot of the offensive gap between them has been about quantity of playing time, not impact on a per plate appearance level.
If you liked the idea of Prince Fielder for $150 million — forget the crazy $214 million that he actually got — then you should love the idea of Swisher at half that price. Yes, he’s a few years older and not quite as good of a hitter, but he’s also a drastically better defensive player who can handle multiple positions, a better baserunner, a switch-hitter, and doesn’t have a physique that screams “knee problems!” There are pros and cons to both. If you’re just deciding which one you’d rather have without any regard to cost, you’d go with Fielder, but a rational analysis of their performance would tell you that the gap isn’t as huge as the perception difference.
But, once you factor in cost — especially now that the Yankees have decided to avoid multi-year contracts in an effort to get under the luxury tax — the choice between the two is a no-brainer. There’s no way that you can spin the difference between them as worth an extra $150 million or whatever the gap in their total contracts ends up being.
The Mariners don’t need to sign an inferior player like Nick Swisher to make up for the fact that they missed their chance to sign a real hitter like Prince Fielder last winter, even if that’s the story people want you to believe. They get the chance to sign a good player like Nick Swisher — and still have a bunch of money left to bring in more talent as well — because they didn’t fall into the trap of labels and drastically overpay last winter.
That’s why I don’t buy into any of this talk about this being a bad class of free agents. That’s like criticizing Safeway for being a bad grocery store compared to Whole Foods. You can probably get a slightly higher quality product at Whole Foods for double the price, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find good stuff at better prices by avoiding the marketing hype and buying things that are on sale. A store isn’t bad just because it doesn’t have overpriced stuff you shouldn’t pay for to begin with. This market might not have high-end players with overinflated price tags, but it has a host of good players who can dramatically improve the Mariners roster without costing them a large part of their future.
Given the reports about the kinds of offers Swisher is getting, he’s shaping up to be a freaking steal, and he’s exactly the kind of player that the Mariners need. Don’t let the labels that have been affixed to him and Fielder distract you from the truth. Just like Fielder, he’s a really good player. And at the reported price tag, getting him this winter would be a far better result for the franchise than signing Fielder last winter would have been.
Blake Beavan and the Honest ERA
I know: you want to hear about Josh Hamilton and/or Nick Swisher, and how seriously the M’s are pursuing them. You’d like to know about the M’s 2013 payroll. Instead, I’m going to talk about Blake Beavan and unearned runs. I understand if you’ve already navigated your way out of here, and a part of me is legitimately sorry, but the majority of me knows that 1) it’s November and 2) I’m not at the GM meetings, so 3) let’s talk about Blake Beavan!
It’s one of the very first lessons anyone interested in sabermetrics learns: ERA is pretty misleading. Over a very large sample, it might be useful, and it might illuminate some aspect of a pitcher that advanced metrics don’t pick up, but any smaller (say, 3-5 years) sample is hopelessly biased. ERA is a measure of run prevention that mixes the contribution of the pitcher, the defense, and the official scorer. It doesn’t comport with what actually happened on the field (which is, ironically, one of the criticisms often hurled at advances metrics). It doesn’t isolate the pitcher’s contributions from his defense, and perhaps most questionably, the official scorer can wield tremendous influence based on how many balls in play he calls errors versus hits. Not surprisingly, other measures, including FIP and plain-old RA, predict following-year ERA much better than ERA itself does. At the extremes, a pitcher having a bad year can put up a very solid ERA thanks to the official scorer and bad timing.
CJ Wilson’s given up 16 unearned runs in each of the past two seasons; while he’s been good, he hasn’t been nearly as good as his ERA. Meanwhile, Jered Weaver’s given up only 6 unearned runs in those two seasons combined. If we can’t kill ERA outright, we can at least grudgingly admire those ERAs that refuse to hide dozens of runs from view. “Yes, sure, I gave up three HRs in that inning, but none of it counts because of a decision someone else made about a play someone else made. It’s got nothing to do with me!” This brings us to Blake Beavan, who didn’t allow an unearned run in his first 39 MLB starts, and who came awfully close to making it through 2012 without allowing any. That would’ve given him about 250 career innings-pitched without allowing an unearned run, which is pretty remarkable, even in the current, mostly error-free era of baseball. Beavan was in his 2nd to last start of 2012 when he loaded the bases with two outs against the A’s. The M’s summoned Oliver Perez, who threw a pitch that got past John Jaso and gave Oakland a run. Blake Beavan still hasn’t been on the field for an unearned run, which is something.*
This got me to wondering how common it is to pitch for 150 innings and allow one or fewer unearned runs. As it turns out, it’s not terribly uncommon, but it’s rarer for someone as, well, mediocre as Beavan. Since 2007, 22 pitchers** have gone at least 150IP with at most 1 unearned run. The last player to have a full season without one was Francico Liriano of Minnesota in 2010, but as with many of the pitchers on this list, he didn’t have to work out of too many jams – only three batters reached on errors against him that year. Couple that with his well above-average strikeout rate and few total runs allowed and it’s perhaps not a huge shock. But how does that help explain Blake Beavan or Dana Eveland?
| Pitcher | Season | Runs | Earned Runs | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | 2007 | 100 | 100 | 4 |
| Greg Maddux | 2007 | 92 | 91 | 7 |
| Edwin Jackson | 2008 | 91 | 90 | 5 |
| Dana Eveland | 2008 | 82 | 81 | 4 |
| Scott Baker | 2008 | 66 | 66 | 2 |
| Chris Carpenter | 2009 | 49 | 48 | 1 |
| Joe Blanton | 2009 | 89 | 88 | 6 |
| JA Happ | 2009 | 55 | 54 | 3 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 2009 | 78 | 77 | 5 |
| Scott Feldman | 2009 | 87 | 86 | 3 |
| Roy Oswalt | 2009 | 83 | 83 | 6 |
| Johan Santana | 2010 | 67 | 66 | 3 |
| Joel Pineiro | 2010 | 66 | 65 | 5 |
| Philip Hughed | 2010 | 83 | 82 | 1 |
| Jeff Niemann | 2010 | 86 | 85 | 6 |
| Francisco Liriano | 2010 | 77 | 77 | 3 |
| Wade Davis | 2010 | 77 | 76 | 3 |
| Cole Hamels | 2011 | 68 | 67 | 9 |
| Chris Sale | 2012 | 66 | 65 | 3 |
| Blake Beavan | 2012 | 76 | 75 | 2 |
| Jarrod Parker | 2012 | 71 | 70 | 4 |
| Jason Vargas | 2012 | 94 | 93 | 4 |
That’s a somewhat interesting table, or at least it’s interesting to me in mid-November. There’s a mix of very good (Hamels, Sale, Liriano, Santana) and not so good (Beavan, Blanton, Eveland). No one makes the list twice, though that’s partially due to the fact that I only went back to 2007. In fact, the last Mariner to pitch a full year without giving up an unearned run is Joel Pineiro, who managed the feat back in 2005, when he pitched a lot like Blake Beavan. Pineiro’s somewhat remarkable in that he’s not only done this twice, but he’s done so as two completely different pitchers – the flyballing, HR-prone, generally bad 2005 Pineiro and the Dave-Duncanized sinkerballer who wasn’t half bad in 2010. Being a great pitcher will clearly help you avoid unearned runs (as you can K your way out of jams), but it’s not the only way to do it. The other way is to simply not give up many errors, and that’s why so many of these guys are fly-ballers. Phil Hughes is even more fly-ball prone than Beavan, and Scott Baker slots in between. Blanton/Gallardo/Happ aren’t quite in that category, but they’re not ground-ball guys. It’s not a perfect correlation though, as Pineiro attests. Eveland was neutral-to-GB in 2008, and Liriano’s 2010 was his one big GB% year.
A good defense clearly plays a role as well, as reducing BABIP-against is going to reduce total runs. That’s why it’s not a shock to see two 2012 M’s teammates on the list (and two 2010 Rays teammates as well). In addition, it helps that these guys, in general, haven’t pitched all that much. Only one of these players, Daisuke Matsuzaka, pitched more than 200IP. Not only was Dice-K the IP champion of this list, he’s the one starting pitcher I’ve found (in recent years, at least) who started his career with a longer string of unearned run-less games was Dice-K, who went 268 IP, or 43 games, before his first unearned run. That run came against the Mariners, when Jose Vidro reached on an error, pushing Ichiro to 3B (Ichiro then scored on a ground out).
I still think the end of Beavan’s string is the strangest, what with the run scoring not on an error but a passed ball (which is about as perfect a summation of the M’s defense as you could find), but Chris Sale’s is bizarre too. Sale transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation this year, but as teams are wont to do, White Sox management wasn’t fully committed to the change. Thus, in early May, they brought Sale in with two men on and no outs in the 8th of a tie game against Cleveland. The husk of Johnny Damon reached base on an error and came around to score on a single. Perhaps sensing that bouncing Sale around wasn’t helping anyone, the Sox had Sale start five days later. He made no further appearances out of the pen.
*Ok, no, it’s not.
** That I’ve found through unscientific means. If you know of others, post ’em in comments. Any other 200IP starters that you can find? I thought of the 1970s Orioles, but not even Jim Palmer managed it. In general, there were more unearned runs the further back you go in baseball history, culminating in the 19th century when apparently everyone was terrible at fielding. Jim Devlin gave up 201 unearned runs in one year (1876). There are times I’m baffled that baseball became popular.
A Very Quick Thought On Josh Hamilton
The GM Meetings are going on down in California right now, and while these aren’t the hotbed of rumors that the Winter Meetings are — those happen in Nashville at the beginning of December — there’s still a collection of media and baseball executives in one geographic area. And that breeds conversation, and those conversations often end up spilling over to Twitter and MLBTradeRumors. Today’s rumor – the Mariners are going to be in on Josh Hamilton.
First, it was Jon Heyman linking the Mariners and Orioles as favorites for Hamilton’s services with a column this afternoon. Then, Bob Nightengale of the USA Today jumps in with the same story a few hours later, citing “several GMs” as his sources.
The Seattle #Mariners and the Baltimore #Orioles are expected to be the finalists for Josh Hamiltons’ services,several GMs predict. #Rangers
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 8, 2012
Other GMs predicting things doesn’t mean its going to happen. Being anointed a co-favorite to sign a player on November 7th doesn’t mean anything, especially since that guy isn’t likely to sign any time soon. Remember when people were saying the Mariners were the favorites for Prince Fielder last winter? Remember how that simply wasn’t true?
So, take these reports with the requisite grains of salt. Jon Heyman and Bob Nightengale are not reporting that the Mariners are close to a deal with Josh Hamilton, or that they’ve even made him an offer. They’re reporting what people in other organizations told them what they expect to happen. It’s interesting, but it’s speculative at best. Informed speculation perhaps, but still speculation.
That said, the Mariners interest in Hamilton does pass the smell test. The Mariners are talking up a big game about spending money this winter, with Jack Zduriencik noting that he believes payroll will go up, and Ryan Divish reporting the other day that payroll could be “higher than $91 million”, which would be a substantial increase over last year’s total. Even after re-signing Iwakuma and Perez, the M’s are in the $62 million range, which leaves plenty of money to go after a guy like Hamilton and still fill out the roster. Given that the usual spenders don’t seem overly interested in Hamilton, he’s probably going to have to woo a non-traditional bidder if he wants to land a huge contract, and the Mariners obviously need an outfielder who can hit.
So, there’s logic to it from both sides, and it probably works financially, depending on what else the team wants to do this winter. Of course, Jack can’t just concern himself with whether the price works for 2013, especially if the report that Hamilton is seeking 7/175 is accurate. At that price, he’s just not worth the investment anymore, even though they could fit $25 million into the 2013 payroll. I’m pretty sure the Mariners aren’t going to be interested at 7/175. But, if its 5/110 or 6/130, that’s probably the kind of deal where Jack starts to think about Hamilton as a legitimate option.
And at that kind of price, I’d probably be in favor of the deal. I’m fully aware of the risks that come along with Hamilton, both in terms of health, substance abuse, plate discipline, park factors, aging, and personality, but I think that these kinds of players can often be forced into taking too large of discounts for these risk factors. Last year, for instance, Jose Reyes signed for 6/106 despite being an in-his-prime middle infielder coming off a +6 win season, all because he had a history of leg problems and everyone was scared about his durability. As I wrote at the time of that deal, you can price that kind of risk into a contract and have it turn out to be a worthwhile value even if you assume that the risky guy is going to get hurt or miss time for one reason or another. Value is a balance of risk and reward, and you can’t just say that a player is “too risky” without also calculating the reward when he is in the line-up.
And, of course, Hamilton is a pretty fantastic hitter, even with a maddening approach at the plate. He’s basically Miguel Olivo or Delmon Young in terms of plate discipline, and his inability to adapt his approach is one of the reasons the Rangers are willing to let him walk this winter. But, unlike Olivo or Young, Hamilton is naturally gifted enough to make that approach work, as he can hit a borderline strike a long way. Hamilton isn’t a model for other hitters to follow, but at the same time, we shouldn’t look at his aggressive hackiness and decide that makes him worthless.
Hamilton comes with a lot red flags, and those red flags are almost certainly going to drive his price down from the 7/175 he might be looking for. I don’t think he’s going to get anywhere close to that. I think he might end up in the low-100s for five guaranteed years with some vesting options and incentives added on, which basically pays him like a four win player. And, warts and all, that’s what Hamilton was last year.
If the rumors intensify, I’ll go more in depth on Hamilton’s fit for the organization. But, as a starting spot, I’ll just point out that I’m provisionally on board, assuming that it doesn’t take a contract anywhere near what Prince Fielder got last winter. If they can keep the contract to five guaranteed years (or less) and transfer some of the risk back to Hamilton by making him hit playing time clauses to trigger money at the back end of the deal, then Hamilton could end up being a good value, even with all the risks that are attached.
I’d probably still rather have a guy like Nick Swisher, who is going to come a lot cheaper and is probably capable of providing similar production once playing time is accounted for, but Hamilton’s an interesting option as well. And, who knows, maybe the Mariners are crazy enough to add both. If they’re really planning on pushing payroll back over $90 million, that’d be a fun way to do it.
’12 40-Man Preview Extravaganza
So, I suppose it’s time for me to roll the boulder away from the mouth of my cave, stumble out into the world, bleary and unshaven, and do what I otherwise do proficiently, haggard appearance aside. I’ll tell you all about the probable 40-man additions (due Nov. 20th) and spend some time in idle speculation covering more material than is actually meaningful to cover because I’m abnormal in that way. I probably have some kind of brain thing. This year, what we’re looking at is ’08 high school draftees/early international signings and ’09 college draftees, which means that this marks the first year that we’ve been taking into account the Zduriencik era. You might be thinking all kinds of things about how long we’ve been in this particular rebuilding process, but you’re wrong! Baseball takes up so much time.
This round, the Mariners’ likely additions are more pitching-oriented than hitting-oriented, to the dismay of those of us now who really had no idea what things would have looked like four years ago. Actually, we haven’t have hitting for a while. Whatever. Next year is going to be something of a crunch. Why, we’ll be looking to add guys such as Stefen Romero, Leon Landry, Logan Bawcom, Forrest Snow, Tyler Burgoon, and Jordan Shipers, along with a whole slew of international prospects. Won’t that be fun to write about? It might be. We’re not there yet.
This time I’ve started to group things based around what I think will happen as opposed to just lumping all the names together. I’m making things more efficient! For you, not me. This is still ridiculous overall as an exercise.
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M’s Re-Sign Oliver Perez
The M’s announced today that they’ve re-signed Oliver Perez for the 2013 season, and Jon Heyman reports that he’s getting $1.5 million in salary with $600,000 in incentive bonuses. Given that his velocity spiked with the move to the bullpen and that he was actually pretty good for the team last year, this is a nice little pickup. Relievers who throw 94 from the left side aren’t growing on trees, and the M’s basically got him for little more than the league minimum.
With Perez coming back, the bullpen is officially overcrowded, which means someone is going away before spring training. The late inning roles are likely to go to Wilhelmsen, Furbush, Capps, and Luetge, with Pryor, Perez, and either Shawn Kelley or Josh Kinney working in middle relief. Given that Kelley and Kinney are both arbitration eligible but that Kelley is probably in line for a bigger raise and has more trade value, my guess is that Shawn Kelley is the odd man out, and the team will flip him as part of a minor trade for a bench player or a non-roster prospect.
The bullpen should once again be the strength of the team. With Perez back in the fold, they’ll have three pretty decent left-handed bullpen arms, and then three guys who throw serious heat from the right side. Not a bad group to play the match-ups with.
M’s Re-Sign Iwakuma
As expected, the Mariners have re-signed Hisashi Iwakuma to a two year deal with an option for a third year. Financial details aren’t out yet, but it’s not going to be a ton of money. He wanted to stay, he knew Safeco helped him out last year, and the free agent market isn’t super kind to starters with a history of shoulder problems who gave up a lot of homers while pitching in a homer suppressing park. Expect somewhere between $6-$8 million per year.
That knocks one rotation spot off the list, and leaves the team with just one starting spot left behind Felix, Iwakuma, Vargas, and Ramirez. I wouldn’t be surprised if they brought in another starter to replace Millwood/Beavan, but don’t expect it to be a big ticket guy. Most of the spending this winter — after this move, anyway — is going to be on the offense.
Update: Jon Heyman has the financials – $14 million guaranteed, with annual salaries of $6.5 million in 2013/2014, then a 2015 option for $7 million with a $1 million buyout. So it’s either 2/14 or 3/20. Basically, right in line with what we expected.