Gimenez, Jimenez, and Kelley Added
Two of these were the obvious moves once rosters expanded. The addition of Kelley probably does the most for us, and is really the only one I’m all that interested in. You may remember that Kelley was out for a while having a ligament in his elbow re-attached, sort of like TJ except minus the severity and about a year in recovery time. While in Tacoma, he got 14.2 innings in and had a .208 average against with a 15/6 K/BB. That sounds less impressive than it is because five of those walks inexplicably came in one outing. Kelley proving that he’s healthy will go a long way towards shoring up the bullpen for next season. The Mariners lucked out in the early part of the year in that their Franken-bullpen managed to turn in a series of good performances, but as time went on we learned why guys like Wright and Laffey and Ray and Gray were having a hard time holding down major league jobs in the first place. Ideally, Kelley would provide us an actual setup reliever or something resembling one.
We knew that Chris Gimenez was going to come back as soon as he recovered from the oblique injury, and the last couple of weeks, he’s been down in Tacoma batting .265/.357/.347 over forty-nine at-bats. Seeing as how the Mariners are trying to figure out what they have in Robinson and Wells in the outfield, I doubt that Gimenez is much more than our third catcher at the moment. The org had a use for him out of spring training, but since that time it seems like his versatility has become less of a factor. It just makes more sense right now to have Bard around with various recent Rainiers on the staff.
The addition of Jimenez is a head-scratcher for me because it requires a 40-man spot and Jimenez has not recently become good or anything. He’s basically showing the same issues that he’s always had with his splits: he holds right-handers to a decent-ish average at .246, but left-handers are batting .283 off of him. Except, even considering that, he’s had a 56/26 K/BB against right handers, walking more than a batter every two innings, and his 25/9 K/BB against lefties in 25.1 IP, while better, is nothing special. If you think that the Ks are any good, well, he’s done that since 2008 in Tacoma and this year is his worst walk rate yet there. A less desperate club would probably leave him there, and he’s definitely among the first on the cutting block if we need another spot in the offseason.
Edit: The corresponding move to Jimenez getting added as that the M’s released Matt Tuiasosopo. This might shock some because, hey, local kid (Woodinville High School!), but in reality Tui has been defensively limited in the past year or so, spending much of his time at first and in left, with some starts at second after both Ackley and Seager left. The decreased pressure on him on the field hasn’t helped his bat any, and it’s been stagnant for the past couple of years. Maybe he needs a change of scenery. Maybe he’s just not that good. Either way, I couldn’t have come up with a reason to keep him around unless I was really stretching.
M’s Extend Jack Z
Since this broke yesterday, we’re a little late to the party, but the Mariners announced that they’ve extended the contract of Jack Zduriencik for “multiple years” to keep him and his staff in place and continue the work that has been building since he was hired three years ago.
Plenty of other of people have weighed in on Jack’s extension and have talked about the focus on the farm system, development of talent through the draft, and how the M’s have begun to really build from within for the first time in 15-20 years. That’s all true, and is certainly one of the main reasons why the M’s decided to keep Jack around even though there hasn’t been a lot of winning going on since he took over. Everyone can see the ground work being laid for a bright future, and it was the right call to keep the current front office in place to continue the work they’ve been doing.
However, at some point, the front office is going to have to pivot, and my guess is that point is going to come within the next 12 months. While Jack got a “multi-year extension”, he didn’t get a lifetime extension, and I’m pretty sure that the ownership will eventually demand that all the ground work produce wins on the field at the Major League level. It’s one thing to see the fruit of guys like Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager, but it’s another thing to have a competitive roster full of guys who can go toe to toe with the Texas Rangers.
The Mariners have a few guys who can do that. They have more coming. But there’s also still quite a bit of dreck on this roster. The team’s primary setup guy right now is Jamey Wright. The entire bullpen is really a bit of a disaster, if we’re being honest. After trading away Doug Fister and Erik Bedard, the rotation is no longer a strength – you could argue that the M’s really only have a couple of Major League starters right now. And, you know, the offense still isn’t great. Miguel Olivo hits fifth on most nights. Casper Wells isn’t yet showing that he’s an everyday left fielder in the big leagues. Franklin Gutierrez’s power is still completely MIA.
For all the good work that has been done on the farm, the big league team is still not very good. And yet, in the not too distant future, it needs to be good, and the M’s can’t count on all of the necessary talent coming from guys already in the organization. Danny Hultzen and James Paxton might help a lot, or they might be Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro. The M’s can’t depend entirely on the wave of talent coming to fill the holes.
For the last few years, the focus has been on the farm system. Sure, the M’s “pivoted” somewhat when they made the Cliff Lee trade and the Chone Figgins signing, but even while they were making those moves, the focus was more on giving the team a chance to be good rather than making themselves the favorites in the division. It didn’t work, so they pivoted back towards building for the future.
I don’t know that the point has to come this winter, but the time is going to come when the team has to go back to focusing more on adding to the big league roster than the farm system. They’re going to have to get more guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Russell Branyan, and David Aardmsa – useful, present Major Leaguers who just need a better chance to show what they can do – rather than just sit around waiting for the minor league kids to be ready for the show.
The farm system is now in good shape – certainly better shape than the big league roster. The groundwork has been laid for a strong future, and that work needs to continue. But, pretty soon, the M’s need to put together a roster that can win 90 games in a season. Even with his contract extension, the ownership isn’t going to give Jack a free pass on 90 loss seasons forever.
I’m glad Jack is sticking around, and I do believe in what they’ve been doing to lay a foundation for the future. Pretty soon, though, I believe that the front office’s priorities will have to shift to a degree, and the organization will have to focus on building out the Major League roster to compete with what the rest of the division has to offer. How Jack does at that kind of GM’ing will determine whether or not he’ll get another contract extension in a few years.
Jack Wilson –> Atlanta Braves for a PTBNL
Nothing much to say about this deal – the Braves needed a back-up shortstop/late-game defensive replacement for their playoff run, and the M’s needed to stop paying Jack Wilson so much money. A great trade is one that helps both parties, and if you set the bar for ‘help’ low enough, this afterthought of a move might qualify.
Because it happened today, the Braves could add Wilson to their playoff roster, which would be basically OK for them, and unbelievably awesome for Jack Wilson.
Game 135, Angels at Mariners
King Felix vs. Dan Haren, 7:10pm
Happy Felix Day! I don’t know if I’ve seen as jarring a contrast between consecutive days’ starters since Livan Hernandez followed Stephen Strasburg in July of last year. Haren and Hernandez are so good, so consistently excellent, that there’s not as much to say. They’re not bizarre like Anthony Vasquez, nor is their story as bizarre as Jerome Williams’. They’re just bizarrely talented pitchers, and thus this game holds the promise of genuine excitement, as opposed to the ersatz sideshow kind of excitement I talked about yesterday. I suppose I’ll make do.
In contrast to the heralded pitchers, two of the more important bats in the game were unknown or actively disparaged coming into the year. Mark Trumbo and Mike Carp are playing 1B due to injuries to the incumbents, both played many years in the minors, compiling a good-but-not-great record, and both players enjoyed break out years in the PCL. This isn’t to same they’re the same type of player exactly; they’re not. Trumbo was more of a Peguero type – someone who had great raw power, but couldn’t produce enough in game situations. Carp was the opposite – a patient hitter with gap power that just didn’t work with his defensive limitations.
Prospects change, hitters develop, coaches….coach. But I still can’t get over how *weird* it is that Mark Trumbo’s been one of the Angels better bats this year, or that Mike Carp is essentially tied with Dustin Ackley as the best hitter on the M’s. The Cardinals’ Allan Craig is another guy in this mold – someone with clear talent, but whose performance record never screamed “MLB starter.” If this was as simple as a scouts-vs-numbers argument, that’d be fine: I’d sincerely love to learn more about how to distinguish the Allan Craigs from the John Bowkers of the world (Philadelphia acquired Bowker today to shore up their bench, incidentally). But I don’t think it is. The tools scouts weren’t putting Mike Carp on any top prospect lists, they liked Greg Halman. Craig and Trumbo were rated C+ by John Sickels, and came in at #10/#11 respectively in their team prospect lists (Kevin Goldstein had Trumbo a bit higher, Craig a bit lower). Carp was a C in 2010, and wasn’t ranked in 2011. All of these guys had K rates between 15-20%, solid power numbers, but they tended to move slowly up the org ladder. Why is Mike Restovich bad (one of the better PCL hitters I saw around 8-9 years ago) and Craig good?
Sample size may be the easy answer, and if Trumbo regresses, I’ll be thrilled to revert to laughing at an Angels team with a 1B with an OBP under .300. But now I’m at the point where seeing Trumbo in the box is genuinely worrying. All I can do is hope that Angels fans are similarly troubled by Mike Carp, and hope that they’re as confused by their fear as I am about mine.
Incidentally, Trumbo against the Mariners: .340/.404/.762. Against everyone else? .249/.282/.458.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro (DH)
2: Gutierrez
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Olivo
6: Seager
7: Wells (RF)
8: Ryan
9: Robinson (LF)
Jerome Williams: The Angels “Luck” Personified
Jeff Sullivan distilled the feeling of being an M’s fan looking at the Angels’ sustained run of success perfectly yesterday:
“Why the Angels? Why the Angels, still? Why do they get to be magic? Are they really magic? It has to be luck, right? Why do they get to be so lucky? Why do they get to be so consistently whatever they are?”
Every year, a bunch of smart people write dozens of smart articles pointing out that the team’s core is aging, or that their line-up lacks power, that their defense may be suspect, or any number of perfectly logical reasons why they should struggle. And yet they don’t.
We can’t point to a once-in-a-generation alignment of great prospects, like the Rays in 2008. The Angels’ current crop of young players flew under the radar (Mike Trout excepted), but Peter Bourjos, Jordan Walden and Mark Trumbo have produced nonetheless. But while Bourjos never had the reputation of Trout (or hell, Michael Saunders), it’s not like he came out of nowhere. Everyone knew he’d be a plus defender, just like everyone knew Walden could throw really hard. It’s somewhat annoying that just when M’s fans were getting used to mocking overhyped Angels prospects, we’ve needed to adjust to underrated stars like Bourjos – but it’s not crazy.
We can’t chalk it up to an elite GM; this is the team that turned Mike Napoli into Vernon Wells. This is the team that’s obsessed with Jeff Mathis (and, to a lesser extent, Bobby Wilson). A little earlier, they were renowned for building a great farm system and scouting group, but most of those vaunted prospects flamed out, or turned into unlikely contributors in Tampa. They’ve not been above petty in-fighting either: they fired the scouting director who found most of their young stars (including Trout) last year. There’s crazy here, but not the kind that would explain sustained success.
Tonight, we saw something pretty crazy. Jerome Williams made his second consecutive solid start, tossing a great sinker, a change-up, a curveball and a cutter. The M’s scored two runs in the 4th on a series of slow ground balls and an opposite field double, and got a couple of consolation runs in the 7th when the game was out of reach. Williams wasn’t overpowering, but he generated 10 swinging strikes, got six strikeouts and a flurry of ground balls. This is the guy who last pitched in the majors in 2007, and who tore his rotator cuff before getting released by the Nationals. Time, indy-league bus rides, some valuable experience in the Taiwanese league and now he’s throwing nasty 92mph sinkers, and beating the M’s at Safeco? What? I’m still adjusting to the fact that Jerome Williams is playing baseball at all.
Go back and look at that BA Top 100 prospect list from 2002 or 2001 – both had Williams at #19. Several players on it went on to have full, fairly normal MLB careers – they broke in, bounced around a bit, had some good years, then declined, and ultimately retired. Guys like Jack Cust, who appears with Williams in both 2001 and 2002 and looks to be about done now. Or Brad Wilkerson, who had a decent run with the Expos before crashing out with the M’s (and that was three years ago). Marcus Giles, Joe Crede, Kevin Mench, Ramon Vasquez!
Williams came up with the Giants as one of three feared pitching prospects (Kurt Ainsworth and Jesse Foppert were the others) who all suffered serious arm injuries. Jesse Foppert had Tommy John surgery, then knee surgery. Williams had shoulder surgery in 2007. Ainsworth outdid his teammates, suffering a broken shoulder blade, a torn rotator cuff and a torn labrum before retiring in 2006. The point of this isn’t to point out that other teams have seen their pitching prospect depth wiped out in quick succession, it’s that Williams pitching well for the Angels in 2011 is roughly the equivalent of Jesse Foppert pitching well in the majors in 2011.*
Perhaps worst of all, I can’t root against him. The whole thing is so ludicrous, it almost transcends the rivalry. It’s quite easy to say that now that the M’s are out of it and that Williams started opposite Anthony Vasquez, but I think I might cheer for Ryan Anderson or Clint Nageotte if they pitched for the A’s next year. Williams isn’t a difference-maker in the 2011 AL West race; he’s a talisman. The Angels roster includes Vernon Wells, Mike Trout, Bobby Wilson, Peter Bourjos, Jered Weaver and Jerome Williams. The Angels keep shooting themselves in the foot, but they’ve had enough prospects to overcome that. Now, apparently, they can raise the dead.
*We must keep the Angels away from Jesse Foppert.
Game 134, Angels at Mariners
Vasquez vs. Williams
In an about-face from last night, I don’t think I’ve been as excited about a pitching match-up all season. Well, at least not since the M’s were completely out of the race. If I can’t get hall-of-fame quality, I’ll settle for hall-of-fame weirdness.
Anthony Vasquez makes his home debut, giving the local fans an opportunity to say, “No, seriously, I could do that.” I’m excited to see some more data on his change-up, which may be the slowest in all of baseball. There’s just something compelling about watching Vasquez start Mark Trumbo off with a 79mph two-seamer, then go with a 70mph change-up, then try to put him a way with a 66mph curve.
Jerome Williams makes his second start for the Angels, after being essentially out of affiliated baseball for years. After getting released by the Twins, he played indie league ball in 2008, then played in Puerto Rico to try to win a contract, and finally got one in Taiwan. This all makes him sound a bit like ex-Mariner Jeff Harris, but Williams was an uber-prospect with the Giants back in 2002. Baseball America ranked him the #19 prospect in baseball that year, right between Josh Hamilton and Brandon Phillips (and a few slots below the M’s Ryan Anderson). I’ll talk more about Williams later tonight, but for now, check out Mike Fast’s pitch fx overview here.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Gutierrez
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Olivo
6: Seager
7: Wells
8: Pena
9: Ryan
’11 Arizona Fall League Rosters Announced
Or at least the Mariners part is, i.e. the only part we care about. Hit it, Twitter.
The four pitchers we’ll be sending are LHP Danny Hultzen, LHP Brian Moran, RHP Forrest Snow, and RHP Steven Hensley. For catcher, we have C Adam Moore, on the infield, SS Nick Franklin, and OF Chih-Hsien Chiang in the outfield. Since someone asked yesterday, that means I got two names right. Thinking about mentioning Chiang accounts for nothing.
Hultzen would figure to be a member of the rotation down there, which would mean about six starts or so. I’d say he’s getting his feet wet, but in Arizona the term isn’t especially applicable. I can’t say he’s getting his uniform dirty either because as a pitcher he’d probably be doing something wrong if that were the case. The broader strokes we’ve already talked about here: Hultzen was regarded as perhaps the most major league-ready talent in the draft, commanding a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s and throwing quality change-ups and sliders in addition to that. While the secondary offerings can be improved a little, the breaking ball notably, there isn’t a lot that is holding him back right now unless you want to talk about arm slot consistency or some such thing. The Mariners said when he signed that Hultzen would be given the opportunity to compete for a job in the starting rotation, and with Fister and Bedard gone, he’d figure to have a legitimate shot. However, if he doesn’t light the world on fire down there (we’ve been spoiled by Ackley in the AFL the past couple of years), it’s not going to hurt his case much. Arizona is a bad place to pitch and it’s only a few games.
Snow would probably be the surprise pick for me though not because he’s not talented. If we pointed out something like “most improved player” after a draft class got its chance to settle in, Snow would be at the top of the list for the 2010 crop, adding velocity and moving rapidly through the system, even pitching so well in spot starts in Tacoma that they allowed him to stick around full-time. No, what surprises me about it is that the past week or so, Snow hasn’t been in the rotation, losing his starting spot to Luke French of all guys. I would view that kind of move broadly as something to be done to limit innings, but now they’re sending him to the AFL and I don’t know what that’s supposed to signal. Do they intend to start him down there, or will it be more relief and bullpen work, trying to refine command and secondary offerings? I guess we’ll know once they get rolling.
I highlighted Moran a couple of weeks ago as a relief prospect that I had been tracking a bit and seemed to have put things together in the second half. Right now, we’re looking at a .195 average since the all-star break compared to a .337 before, a 10.42 K/9 compared to 7.77, and a 2.94 BB/9 to 3.70, and that doesn’t even get into him chopping his HR rate by more than a third. The perplexing thing for me is that left-handers are having a much easier time hitting him and drawing walks when before he was regarded as a left-on-left guy, and because I can’t avoid repeating myself, left-handed relievers who can only get right-handed bats out aren’t so valuable. He didn’t pitch much to start the year, so I’d say this is more about innings than anything.
For Hensley, it’s also about innings, and regaining command, and demonstrating that he’s healthy, and other things that come accompanied by innings. He pitched 28.0 through six starts spanning the first three months. That’s pretty weak. He also had a rough time in July, but his command has started to clean up a bit in August, while still not being at acceptable levels. Hensley’s due to need to be added to the 40-man in the offseason. This might make an impression to the higher ups, but I wouldn’t have him on the short list at this point. Injury history and all, plus any team that would want to take him only has 2009 as the really strong year to go off of with him, and there would seem to be better investments.
I don’t know what to say about Moore that hasn’t been said already. He’s been up the high minors for what feels like forever, wrecked his knee in the early part of the season, and somehow in spite of these realities may be one of the better options we have internally, in the high minors or elsewhere (because, you know, Marder is hurt and Baron still can’t hit). This will be a glorified rehab assignment after the minor league season for a guy who has reportedly been working on the side with the major league club for some time now. Will he hit? Will his knees not explode? Will we have to go another year with a tandem of Miguel Olivo and either Chris Gimenez or Josh Bard? All of these are relevant question for a team that has a history of terrible hitting catchers.
Stamina would be one concern of mine in sending Franklin to the AFL, since he was out with mono for a while after getting a concussion. This seems like a very Mariners thing to have happen to a prospect, but hey, I don’t pay all that much attention to other team’s farm systems and it’s still got nothing on Grant Desme leaving for the priesthood. Franklin opened the season hitting .275/.356/.411 with half his games in High Desert, the same place that saw all the insanity last week that I already addressed and a game back in 2009 in which fifty-one runs scored. We’ve never seen a good prospect not hit in Adelanto, so it was a little disturbing for us, even if his plate discipline was improving greatly. Since rejoining the Generals he’s been hitting .280/.308/.440, which is still lacking somwhat in power and discipline, but not half bad considering. I could see Franklin opening next year in Jackson, but the org has been aggressive with him and other prospects in the recent past and for all I know this is a Rainiers audition.
Chiang is a guy that I sort of anticipated going to the league so I’ll just explain why right now. Chiang has been horrible since arriving in the Southern League. The broad strokes would be that he went from .340/.402/.648 in Portland to .211/.269/.275 in Jackson. The micro stuff is that he went from 54% of his hits going for extras to 27%, a .376 BABIP to a .275 BABIP, 17% of his plate appearances resulting in strikeouts to 21.7% Ks, and roughly 7% walks in his plate apperances to 5.2%. Everything has gotten worse since he got here and I haven’t heard any reasoning yet for why. One would think that if he had the nutritional information to work with and that was what had previously held him back, he’s just adhere to that gameplan and be aces from here out, but something is obviously amiss here. I don’t know what they expect to see out of him, but I hope they figure something out.
Overall, it’s a good crop of mostly interesting players some of whom will be playing nearly every day. If the playoffs aren’t your thing, feel free to partake in one of the other joys of October baseball.
Arizona Fall League players identified
Update: Or, if you want real in-depth analysis, see Jay’s post above.
When he finally signed his contract, all indications were that Danny Hultzen would make his debut in the organization with the Peoria Javelinas in the AFL. Today, we find out who gets to join him. The complete list:
Hultzen
Adam Moore
Nick Franklin
Chih-Hsien Chiang
Brian Moran
Steven Hensley
Forrest Snow
With Moore, it sounds like they want to take it easy and rather than trying to push him back to the majors in September, will use this venue instead to get him some work on the road to recovery. Franklin is an understandable choice as a top hitting prospect, and could use the extra time also, since he just recently returned to AA to pick up where he left off with first a concussion and then mononucleosis. And since Chiang is new to the system, I think the front office may want a longer look to figure out what they have in him.
In the hitter-friendly environment of the AFL, who gets assigned to pitch is kind of a grab bag. It occasionally includes star prospects – Hultzen, #1 overall pick Gerrit Cole is a possibility, and even Strasburg pitched there two years ago. But because teams are leery of damaged psyches, or they’ve already shut down prime arms to protect against overuse (Paxton, Walker), it can often skew toward a random assortment of arms. In this case, though, there’s at least a legitimate reason to be interested in the remaining guys.
Moran is the last former Tar Heel from the 2009 draft and could be a lefty specialist out of the pen. Hensley is a starter who has missed some time with injuries, meaning this is a chance for some additional work and to see if he can reach his potential. Forrest Snow (no relation that I know of) is a local kid from UW who was taken in the 36th round, which would seem to make him just filler, yet since then he’s moved from the bullpen to the rotation, picked up velocity, and jumped from low-A Clinton to AAA Tacoma this year. Some of his numbers are ugly because of the California League and PCL environments, and the AFL may not be any better in that regard, but it seems the front office wants to see more of what he can do.
Game 133, Angels at Mariners
Beavan vs. Pineiro, 7:10pm
Okay, I generally try to find something worth watching in every pitching match-up, but this is just… this is tough. The series itself is critically important to the Angels, which is why Mike Scioscia’s probably not that thrilled that injuries have forced him to turn to Joel Pineiro again. We’ve all seen Pineiro for years and we know what he throws. Age and injuries have messed up a fascinating sabermetric research project that someone could’ve done with Pineiro: how long does Dave Duncan’s magic fairy dust last? Pineiro’s clearly used up his entire supply, but thanks to his shoulder issues, we’ve got a confounding variable. Joel’s annoying at everything.
Blake Beavan is the ultimate pitch-to-contact guy. On the year, he has Fister-esque whiff rates on his four- and two-seam fastballs, and over his past few starts, they’re going lower. I like the look of his two-seamer on pitch fx; his height and the sink on the pitch gives it a great downward plane, but it certainly doesn’t get more whiffs than his four-seamer. On the other hand, it seems like it should be able to generate some grounders – and if all he’s going to do is watch batters put it in play, then improving his GB% would be nice. It’s been fairly effective against righties, but the fact that he doesn’t like to use it make the sample sizes too tiny to mean anything.
Overall, Beavan’s K rate/whiff rate is so insanely low, you don’t really watch Blake Beavan pitch – you watch what happens *after* Beavan pitches. He’s been a pleasant surprise, but I feel like I should be talking about Brendan Ryan or the day’s outfielders or something.
Speaking of which…
1: Ichiro
2: Gutierrez
3: Ackley
4: Carp
5: Olivo
6: Kennedy (DH… sigh)
7: Wells
8: Seager
9: Ryan
Justin Smoak’s in Tacoma tonight for a rehab start with the Rainiers, who open their last homestand against Tucson.
Hunstville’s taking on Jackson, and why yes, Vinnie Catricala DOES have a double already. How did you guess?
Minor League Wrap (8/22-28/11)
Second to last wrap of the year! The wrap next week will probably come on Wednesday because the regular season schedule won’t end until Monday for the full-seasons. The short-seasons will be cutting out early with Everett ending on Saturday, Pulaski ending on Tuesday, and Peoria ending today. Anyway, this week I have a lot of unusual things from High Desert hitters, a few names that I haven’t brought up before or at the very least often, and a half-blind stab at DSL happenings.
To the jump!
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