Game 140, Rangers at Mariners
Vidal Nuno vs. Martin Perez, 7:10pm
With their win last night (and the Astros’ loss), the Rangers moved to within a game of the AL West lead. And over the past 7 days, the Rangers’ overall playoff odds have jumped up by over 20%, and now stand at over 70%. Some of this is the result of the recent sorting out of the playoff races – the Angels’ and Rays’ slides, coupled with the failure of Cleveland to ever make a real run in the Central means that the Yankees and Rangers have a commanding lead in the wild card chase. Only one team remains under 4.5 game back: the Minnesota Twins, a young team with a negative run differential, and whose BaseRuns performance predicts a record of 60-78, not the 71-67 they’ve actually put up.
But…wait, what about the Rangers? They too are a young team who are counting on some fairly inexperienced players in a playoff stretch. The Rangers have a negative run differential too, and by BaseRuns, they “should” be 65-72, not 73-64. That’s a remarkable amount of luck or skill or *something* that’s driving the Rangers performance. It’s not a case like the Cardinals of a few years ago, where the team was torrid in RISP opportunities. In fact, the Rangers have absolutely sucked with RISP. They have a worse OPS and a much worse wRC+ *than the Mariners* with RISP, and the M’s are no one’s idea of a clutch team. The Rangers’ team FIP and ERA are both worse than the Mariners’, so it’s not like they’re winning a bunch of 2-1 games, either. The Rangers are a very good fielding team, according to DRS and UZR, though they’re only middle of the pack when you just look at the percentage of balls in play they convert into outs.
One reason? The resurgence of previously injured and/or ineffective players like Shin-Soo Choo, who truly looked done in April and May. Since the break, he’s hitting .320/.441/.542. The entire team’s OPS rose from .712 in the first half to .752 in the second. The Rangers were lucky not to be out of the race entirely in the first half, but at least their offense has played like a playoff club’s in recent months. Their rotation hasn’t been as fortunate. Their FIP is up in the 2nd half, and that’s despite the return of guys like Derek Holland and tonight’s starter, Martin Perez.
Tonight’s match-up is interesting to me in that it pits two lefties from the opposite poles of the prospect world. Martin Perez was the #17 prospect in all of baseball in 2010, and made Baseball America’s top 100 list in *5* separate years. A lefty with a plus fastball, he reached AA at the age of 18. Beyond velo (which was always more “good” than “great”), Perez had a very good change-up and developing breaking pitches, and that helped ensure his place on prospect lists even when his on-field results looked more…modest. Despite arriving in AA early, he had difficulty escaping its gravity, and his career marks in the upper minors are underwhelming at best. Perez’s control came and went, and that meant plenty of baserunners. He battled HR issues in AA despite a strong GB%, and that helped push his RA/9 to about 5 over the course of 222 AA innings. He was better in the PCL, of all places, but that’s still damning with faint praise. His strikeouts all but vanished in AAA, and despite a better BABIP, he still gave up 4.3+ runs per 9. Now, Perez is a few months into his return from TJ surgery rehab.
Vidal Nuno was selected in the 48th round of the 2009 draft. In 2010, with Perez enduring the scrutiny of the game’s elite prospects, Nuno was enduring HR problems in A-ball, and would soon be released by the Indians, the club who drafted him out of Baker University, an NAIA school which I hope (and refuse to look up and disprove) is an institution that specializing in the study of actual baking. After a stint in the independent leagues, Nuno arrived in the Yankees org and set about demolishing minor league hitters. His MiLB track record is much shorter than Perez’s because Nuno was older, but also because he didn’t need to repeat levels: his RA/9 was below 3.00 in both AA and AAA, and his K:BB ratio was always at least 3.7 or better. He had a problem with HRs, but with good control and the ability – somehow – to miss bats, it wasn’t a fatal flaw.
Of course, the old adage that you can’t scout a stat sheet is an old adage for a reason. Perez has enjoyed sporadic success at the big league level, and his sinker/change/slider game still produces plenty of ground balls. But Perez still looks like the guy his minor league numbers would’ve predicted: his MLB K:BB ratio is just 2, and he’s still below average in terms of strikeouts. On the other hand, his 4.31 ERA looks better when you consider his home park, and by FIP, he’s been pretty good: his career mark’s below 4 (barely, but still) thanks to HR-suppression. And Nuno? Well, Nuno’s *still* struggling with the long ball, and that’s pushed his career FIP over 4.5. But as with Perez, he’s still the same basic pitcher: he still gets way more strikeouts than anyone with an 88mph fastball and a mean beignet recipe should (seriously: do not look it up. Let’s all just choose to believe Nuno is the greatest ballplayer the culinary schools have ever produced). His career K:BB is nearly 3, and it’s been nearly 4 this year. Neither player is a hulking specimen or throws 100, but Perez just *looks* more like a big league pitcher than Nuno. But despite opposite pedigrees and contrasting approaches/skillsets, they’ve ended up reasonably similar in terms of on-field production. Perez has pitched a few more innings (despite missing a full year), but it’s close. Nuno has a much better career RA/9. Perez has a much better FIP. Going forward, I think their projections are going to look fairly similar, with some improvement in Perez’s K:BB and BABIP, and some improvement in Nuno’s HR:FB ratio as well. Nuno doesn’t really have a job, though, and it’s possible he’ll end up in out-of-option, AAA purgatory. Ah, the power of the pedigree.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Trumbo, 1B
4: Cano, 2B
5: Montero, DH
6: Miller, LF
7: Romero, RF
8: Baron, C
9: O’Malley, CF
SP: Nuno
Welcome to the bigs, Steve Baron. It’s been a long road for the 2nd of the M’s 2 first round picks in 2009 (#33 overall). Defensively advanced, the M’s believed they could develop his bat over time. After 5 mostly miserable years at the plate, I think we all thought Baron might go the Jesus Sucre route of a useful minor league FA signing, and that his days as a prospect were over, if they hadn’t been over since 2012-13 or so. Then, Baron hit a bit in AA this year, and after moving up to AAA, he hit more. By the time Hicks was called up, I’d have said Baron was the better bat, with Hicks having a slight edge defensively. “Better than Hicks offensively” is a far cry from “look out Buster Posey,” but I’m actually really happy for Baron. The temptation to quit must’ve been there, but he stuck with it. Well done.
Tri-City calmly dispatched Everett in game 2 of the best-of-3 NWL semifinals last night, officially ending the M’s minor league campaign of 2015.
Game 121, Mariners at Rangers
Mike Montgomery vs. Derek Holland, 11:05am
Early game today as the M’s will catch a flight home and await the arrival of the White Sox on Friday. Today’s game’s an interesting one, as it marks the 2nd start, and 2nd *inning* lefty Derek Holland will toss for Texas in 2015. The oft-injured lefty hurt his shoulder just one inning into his first start of the year – this after coming back from knee surgery that limited him to just five starts in 2014. When he was on, he used a plus fastball, a curve, and his excellent slider to get strikeouts. The K’s were important, as his swerving, rising FB leads to a lot of elevated contact, and that can often spell problems in a place like Arlington. His HR rate is fairly high for his career, a product of his home park and continued struggles with right-handed bats. Righties are slugging .450 against Holland in his career, and have a HR rate of 1.38/9 IP.
Part of Holland’s problems to righties was that his change-up was never a consistently effective pitch. In recent years, it had even more “rise” than his sinker and occasionally more than his four-seam fastball, which is rather remarkable for a pitch 8-10mph slower. Righties are slugging an even better .543 off the change-up for Holland’s career – and that’s over 1100 change-ups thrown. Thus, in recent years, Holland’s limited the change and started throwing a blizzard of sliders to righties as well as lefties – Eno Sarris has a great interview with Holland in which the lefty talks about how he moves the pitch around the zone to righties.
So: in the past, he was a 94-95mph four-seam fireballer with a solid breaking ball to back it up. He’s tossed all of 38 big league innings in the past two seasons, though, and hasn’t pitched more than 5 IP in the minors this year. I have no idea what Holland will look like today, and I doubt the M’s do either. In his single inning in April, his velo was down significantly, but then that’s often a precursor to injury. The M’s have seen a lot of Holland over the years; Mark Trumbo’s seen him the most, and I’m sure he’ll be in the starting line-up because of it.
For the M’s, Mike Montgomery heads to another difficult pitching environment and tries to stop his recent slide. As Tony Blengino’s article at Fangraphs talks about, Montgomery put up so-so K:BB numbers in his first 7 starts, but benefited from an absurdly low level of production on balls in play. Montgomery gave up a decent number of fly balls, but they all found gloves…as did the grounders he induced. Since then, it seems that every fly ball finds a gap and every grounder splits the defenders. In Blengino’s reckoning, it’s great that Montgomery’s GB% is trending up, but given that Montgomery doesn’t seem to be all that good at limiting hard-hit contact, he’s going to struggle to stick around even as a 4-5th starter.
Erasmo Ramirez, the guy Montgomery was swapped for just before the season started, has blossomed into a solid part of the Rays rotation, and his numbers are nearly dead-on where they were in his great 2012 campaign. If you’d looked at Ramirez’s batted-ball authority in 2013-14, you’d have seen a hopeless AAAA pitcher too, and one with much bigger control problems than even Montgomery’s recent skid have demonstrated. Given that, I’m not sure that the batted ball data over 7 starts are dispositive here. They certainly aren’t *encouraging*, but Ramirez’s resurgence demonstrates that a pitcher’s “true talent” is pretty malleable. Montgomery still struggles against same-handed hitters. The Red Sox seemed to know that, and thus left Travis Shaw and Brock Holt in the line-up around David Ortiz. Yes, yes, righties knocked him around too, but lefties get a very good look at Montgomery’s fastball, and it’s something he might want to think about changing. Keep the four-seamer for righties, and he’ll probably always see more righties than lefties, but use his sinker and even his change-up a bit more to lefties. Right now, he’s doing the exact opposite: it’s righties who are seeing more of the sinker.
Just like Erasmo, Montgomery’s running reverse splits, and that may always be a part of his profile. But he’s got to keep lefties from driving the ball, and it’s possible that his sinking change might help with that. Obviously, the pitch has been more effective to righties, and I understand that he doesn’t want to over-use it to lefties, lest it become less effective as a putaway pitch, but it’s time for Montgomery to make some adjustments. Oh, one more adjustment. Montgomery’s fastball location needs to be better. Here’s a heat map of Montgomery’s four-seam fastball, the pitch he’s thrown more than any other. There are a number of ways to use a fastball, and there’s no real right answer of where you want to throw it. But there IS a wrong answer:
Not there, Mike.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Jackson, CF
7: Trumbo, DH
8: Montero, 1B
9: Zunino, C
SP: Mike Montgomery
3 lefties in the line-up against Montgomery today: Shin-Soo Choo, Mitch Moreland and Rougned Odor.
Tacoma topped OKC last night 3-2, with Roenis Elias tossing 7 strong innings for the win. I should mention that Chin-hui Tsao pitched the final 2 innings for the Dodgers. As amazing as it is to see Chien-ming Wang still pitching in the minors, it’s even more remarkable – and cool – that Tsao’s still going. Once one of the most highly touted pitchers in the minors, and a future mainstay of the Rockies rotation, Tsao made his MLB debut back in 2003. Before that, he was the #15 overall prospect in baseball before 2001, thanks to a dominant season in the Sally league in 2000. Wang is actually slightly older, but they hit the affiliated minors around the same time, but Tsao was a step ahead – and much, much more successful in the early going. Wang didn’t debut with the Yankees until 2005, so Tsao was the big Taiwanese star for a few years. Working in relief in 2005, he touched 100mph with a fastball, a speed he reached again pitching in Taiwan several years later. Unfortunately, his shoulder never held up, and he returned to Taiwan in 2008. After a game-fixing scandal, he was kicked out of his domestic league, so he tried to come back to the US to play for independent league teams, but when that failed, he became a restauranteur in Taiwan. The Adelaide Bite of the ABL wouldn’t let him suit up, so I was surprised he was allowed in to the US affiliated minors, but he’s been pitching reasonably well this season (mostly in AA) after a layoff of an incredible 5 years, from 2010-2015. Anyway, Adrian Sampson starts today for the R’s as they head to Colorado Springs to face Harvard product Brent Suter, who put up some excellent RA numbers in AA Biloxi.
Speaking of Biloxi, the Shuckers beat Jackson 3-1 last night after reliever Trey Cochran-Gill gave up 3 runs in the 8th. Misael Siverio tossed 6 shutout innings, but opponent Jorge Lopez went 7 scoreless for the win. Dylan Unsworth takes the mound for the Generals as they face Biloxi righty Adrian Houser, who was a part of the recent Carlos Gomez trade.
Lake Elsinore beat Bakersfield, also by a score of 3-1. Dan Altavilla struck out 7 in 5 IP and Justin Seager got his first Cal League HR in the loss. Tyler Pike starts for the Blaze tonight.
Clinton got 2 runs in the 9th to get a rare road win over Burlington by a score of 5-3. Joe DeCarlo’s 2 run HR was the difference, and sinkerballing closer Kody Kerski picked up the save. Kerski’s got 51 Ks in 49 2/3 IP on the year, and has only given up 1 HR this season. His ERA is sparkly, but it’s partially the result of 10 unearned runs…almost as many as the 11 earned runs he’s been charged with. Still, as a 2nd day draft pick out of a small school (and the closer for a team that’s had precious few opportunities for saves), Kerski’s done enough to warrant more attention. Clinton’s Jarrett Brown makes the start tonight in Burlington against the Bees’ Jake Jewell.
Spokane used an 8 run 8th to down Everett 11-8. Drew Jackson was held hitless again, but he did have 2 walks. Alex Jackson doubled, and Luis Liberato had 3 RBIs for the AquaSox. Starter Nick Wells was solid again, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits in 6 IP while striking out 6. Jason Churchill was at the game and got a quick video of Wells – it’s linked in this tweet. Spencer Herrmann had a forgettable day, giving up 5 runs in 1/3 of an inning – you can probably guess which inning he appeared in. Luiz Gohara starts in Everett tonight, and the Brazilian’s looking to break out of a slump. After a solid first few starts, Gohara’s given up 14 earned runs in his last 4 starts and 13 1/3 IP. His K:BB ratio’s still pretty good, but he’s been very hittable for a guy with good raw stuff in a short-season league.
Game 110, Rangers at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Cole Hamels, 7:10pm
Sorry for the break there – I wandered around Oregon with my family, camping near Newberry Caldera, checking out the coast, and checking out plenty of breweries/wineries. It was a wonderful break from what’s become another difficult M’s season, though it was ill-timed in that I missed Ketel Marte’s first MLB at-bats, as well as Jesus Montero looking like a big-leaguer again. As in most seasons, the M’s are a fascinating blend of hide-your-eyes and realized potential. Nelson Cruz can’t be an MVP candidate in a league that employees Mike Trout, but he’s having an amazing season. Brad Miller’s plate discipline is helping overcome a stubbornly low BABIP, Seth Smith has been fantastic and even Franklin Gutierrez is contributing. And yet the M’s are out of it, 9 games below .500 and with their playoff odds in the very low single-digits.
This isn’t new – you know how the M’s got here. Jeff Sullivan did a great job summarizing their plight for a national audience here, but what’s interesting is how much churn there’s been in terms of where the blame lies. Hisashi Iwakuma was bad and then hurt-and-bad, but he’s returned to form and become a contributor. Robinson Cano was an anchor on the offense until he suddenly became its engine again. Fernando Rodney was terrible, and then…ok, yeah, he’s still terrible. The M’s offense has been better of late, but it’s amazing how little these mini-streaks by some component of the team matters in the win column. The starting pitching began the year in a slump thanks to Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, then turned it around. The non-Cruz offense was terrible, and then had a torrid month, but the M’s record has actually dropped over that time.
Worse, the Rangers rebuild seems to have taken much less time than we would’ve assumed. After sinking a ton of money into Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish, they’ve been able to re-tool thanks to a farm system that continues to be excellent at developing talent. Cole Hamels fetched three of Texas’ top 10 prospects, though the Rangers were able to protect 3B Joey Gallo and OF Nomar Mazara, meaning they’ve got offensive depth in the high-minors. The development of Chi Chi Gonzalez has been fairly remarkable, and CF Delino DeShields has been solid after Leonys Martin’s development stalled and then went into a nosedive. To be sure, this is still a team that’s overperforming to a degree: their pythagorean record is 50-57, and their pitching staff was among the worst in baseball prior to acquiring tonight’s starter, Cole Hamels.
They’ve relied on sequencing, and they have the best record in one-run games in the AL West. You could argue that they should’ve sold on Gallardo rather than buying on Hamels, but that’s obviously not what they decided to do. Instead, they’re positioned fairly well for 2016 – they should have a healthy Martin Perez and, at some point, Yu Darvish, meaning they won’t need Colby freaking Lewis to anchor the rotation. SS is still a problem, and it’s not clear how much money they’d have to spend after taking on Hamels contract, but the M’s came into this season looking like a team that was far superior in every way to Texas, and that’s not going to be the case next year. Of course, Oakland was supposed to be the well-positioned, slightly-above-.500 team coming into this year, and Texas’ push could backfire if they don’t figure out why none of their players can stay healthy. But while the M’s window hasn’t completely closed, it’s really hard to see out of it these days.
I take it we all know enough about Cole Hamels not to go into too much detail. You know, guy with really good change-up – 4th most innings-pitched since end of 2007. Coming up, Hamels was a four-seam/change up guy who also threw a curve. After struggling against lefties a bit in 2008 and 2009, he developed a cutter which has become a big part of his arsenal (especially to lefties) and a sinker, which may help ameliorate his HR issues. He started throwing the curve a lot in 2013, and he’s kept his HR/9 under 1 in each year since. The confounding variable here is velocity. Like a number of hurlers, Hamels is now throwing significantly harder than he was as a youngster. In 2008, Hamels four-seam was 90-91. Now, at age 31, he’s throwing 93-94.
1: Marte, SS
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Cano, 2B
5: Montero, DH
6: Jackson, CF
7: Trumbo, LF
8: Morrison, 1B
9: Zunino, C
SP: Iwakuma
Soooo, Ketel Marte, underrated prospect? This may be the first time in recent memory that the national writers seem to be higher on a prospect than the team’s fans. Marte’s calling card has been his hit tool, as he’s posted sterling K% numbers despite being very young for his league at every stop in the minors. As the Chris Mitchell article linked above attests, contact is a very good sign for a prospect, and his ability to make contact from both sides of the plate adds to the high-ceiling that many people see. Personally though, I’m still quite wary. His lack of power means that his hit tool has to be great, and more importantly, it has to be great consistently. Kiley McDaniel mentioned Luis Castillo as an upside comp, but reaching that would require Marte to walk much, much more often than he’s shown a predilection for in the minors. Castillo had a .368 career OBP, and that’s probably the 99th percentile forecast for Marte. To me, the best case is something like Dee Gordon, another player overlooked because of a low ISO coupled with a non-SS, non-C position. When a player like that is hitting really well, they’re great. But unless either Marte’s gap-power or patience develops, he can’t really contribute if he isn’t hitting over .290 or so.
The PCL has seen a raft of young players who hit AAA at 20-22 and posted solid averages. Most of them were great hitters, from Kris Bryant to Wil Myers to Anthony Rizzo to Joc Pederson. Several of the middle infielders have shown more pop as well, like Wilmer Flores, Dilson Herrera and Kolten Wong. The remainder are a mix of tweener-types who hang on in the big leagues but come off the bench (Joaquin Arias, Chris Owings, Luis Sardinas). It’s too soon to tell with Hanser Alberto or Christhian Adames, and it’s still a bit early with Chris Taylor, too. But those three could play SS, and even there, as could Alcides Escobar, the top MIF comp in Mitchell’s study. If Escobar, Dee Gordon and Scooter Gennett are top comps, it highlights the fact that batting-average-reliant players can be remarkably volatile. Gennett was a .300 hitter who proved the stat-heads wrong, and then was quietly demoted weeks later. Escobar put together a very good 2012 when he hit .297 with little power, but his 2013 was disastrous, putting up a wRC+ of 50 despite playing every day. Gordon’s been great this year, but had a 58 wRC+ in 330 plate appearances in 2012. All of this isn’t a huge problem if Marte’s hit tool is categorically better than these guys, and I’m just not sure that it is. If he plays good defense, there are worse guys to have on your bench, but I still think he may have more value on another team. Prove me wrong, Ketel!
After spending some quality time out of cell-phone range, I’m actually looking forward to watching a ball game tonight. Go M’s.
Game 48, Indians at Mariners
Taijuan Walker vs. Trevor Bauer, 7:10pm
Another start, another match-up of hyped young starters. Trevor Bauer tore through the minors after going 3rd overall to the D-Backs in 2011, one pick after Danny Hultzen. But upon arriving in the majors, serious problems developed. While his walk rate was always poor, it was simply unworkable in the majors, and when he combined it with too many HRs and what Arizona insisted was a bad attitude, the club quickly soured on their top prospect. Flipped to Cleveland in the Didi Gregorius/Shin-Soo Choo swap, Bauer continued to struggle in limited looks. After some work on his mechanics and a dominant stint in AAA, Bauer was up to stay early in 2014, and tossed 153 solid innings for the Tribe. “Solid” innings are worth something, and slotting in behind guys like Kluber and Carrasco is great. But Cleveland – and Bauer – still expect more, and their patience may be paying off. Bauer’s pretty much the only Indians hurler with an ERA *below* his FIP, because he’s done an excellent job at contact management. Fangraphs’ new batted ball statistics categorizes each batted ball as either “soft” “medium” or “hard” hit. Thus far in 2015, no pitcher’s gotten a higher percentage of “soft” contact than Bauer, and that’s reflected in his low .265 BABIP.
This was never a big part of Bauer’s game. In previous years, he wasn’t great at getting weak contact, and as we’ve talked about, it’s not like his teammates are benefiting from the same effect. In fact, Bauer’s 26% weak contact rate is TEN percentage points higher than Corey Kluber’s. Kluber is going to be just fine, and if he always has an ERA a bit higher than his FIP, that doesn’t prevent him from being a legitimate ace. But some pitchers seem to be able to combine weak contact and great fielding-independent numbers, as Tony Blengino’s series of articles at Fangraphs attests – and as anyone who watches Felix Hernandez a lot will understand. Bauer’s success in soft contact is most evident when he yields grounders. That’s not the focus of Bauer’s game, as this is the way he uses his rising four-seam fastball, but he’s not a Chris Young clone: his offspeed/breaking arsenal generate some grounders. Baseball Reference has splits for batted ball type, and thus far in 2015, Bauer’s OPS-against on grounders is .464. Compare that to Kluber, who’s at a .625 OPS this year, up from last year’s .512. Or, to be mean, compare it to Taijuan Walker, who has somehow allowed an OPS of *.815* on GROUND BALLS this year.
Walker’s suffered from myriad problems this season, from a poor walk rate, to HRs (even on good pitches, like the one to Encarnacion) to a very high BABIP. But while Paxton’s BABIP “luck” eventually evened out, Walker’s hasn’t, and the more we learn about pitcher BABIP, the less we can point to that .356 number and wisely intone, “Regression will take care of that.” Walker doesn’t need to get luckier, Walker needs to get *better.* But that’s why Bauer’s evolution is somewhat encouraging. He dealt with his control problem, and now it’s no longer something that’ll prevent him from contributing. Now, his contact management is much better, which could mean this is a skill that can be taught. Walker’s been incredibly coachable since he was drafted, and I’m sure he’d be receptive.
The poster boy for contact management in Blengino’s series is Dallas Keuchel, the Astros sinkerballer who has fashioned himself into an odd kind of ace despite an 89mph fastball. As you saw on that “Soft” contact leaderboard, Keuchel’s 3rd in baseball in soft contact in 2015, and he ranked 4th in 2014. Of special interest is his success at inducing soft grounders. His OPS-against in 2014 was .438 – and this from the guy who lead all starters in GB% by a mile. But it’s worth remembering that as recently as 2013, Keuchel was outright bad at contact management. His 5+ ERA that year was based a bit on slightly worse-than-average GB contact, and hide-your-eyes bad performance on fly balls (Corey Kluber is also worse than average on FB contact). If he learned something, he learned it really quickly.
So, the good news here is that contact can be learned, and that it shouldn’t take 5 years to improve. The bad news is that until he gets there, Walker isn’t a great young pitcher getting horrifically unlucky, he’s legitimately bad, and will continue to post poor results. The bit-of-both news is that this USED to be Walker’s strength. The sample is so tiny, but Walker never had issues with BABIP and hard contact before. It’s the kind of full-spectrum sucking that makes me think one of two things is at play. One, as we talked about last time, he’s tipping his pitches. A good way to get weak grounders is for hitters to be way out in front of a pitch. A good way to avoid being way out in front of a pitch is to know what’s coming. Jeff mentioned his distinct release point for his splitter, and pairing that with his predictable usage of it might help explain why lefties have lit him up this year. But it doesn’t explain righties. They’re actually hitting him even harder, and they see essentially zero splitters. Either he’s tipping *all* his pitches, or something changed in his mechanics when he went to his new stretch-only delivery that gives righties a long look at the ball. I’m sure the M’s are looking at every possibility, if only because they don’t have a lot of alternatives to Walker right now. But I’d let him use his old mechanics just to see if something clicks, and I’d be talking to both Zunino and Welington Castillo to see if they can detect anything different when he throws a fastball versus anything else.
In any event, Bauer famously throws all of the pitches. He’s got a rising FB at 94-95, but a variety of sliders from slurvy to cutter, and even his “reverse” slider that BrooksBaseball classes as a screwball. You might see a change-up AND a splitter, maybe the odd sinker, and a curve ball in the high 70s. With all of those pitches breaking everywhere, Bauer doesn’t have much in the way of platoon splits. Technically, Walker doesn’t either, but in his case, it’s not a good thing.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Cruz, RF
4: Smith, DH
5: Morrison, 1B
6: Zunino, C
7: Miller, SS
8: Bloomquist, 2B
9: Ackley, LF
SP: Walker
Cano’s out again with the flu.
If you watched the game last night, you saw the M’s trainer Rob Nodine work on James Paxton’s finger before Paxton had to leave the game. Today, the M’s placed Paxton on the 15-day DL with a tendon strain in that finger. No word on the corresponding move, but it’ll probably be a reliever since the M’s have gone with 6 for a while. Farquhar could come back, as his 10-day requirement in Tacoma should be waived due to injury. But Dominic Leone may be a better bet. Lucas Luetge is already back with the club, as Joe Beimel’s taking some time off to go to his son’s HS graduation.
The Rainiers finished up their series in Omaha with yet another painful late-inning melt down. This time, it was Tony Zich who gave up a 2 run HR in the 9th to tie the game, then allowed a walk-off single in the 10th to end it. The Rainiers led 5-2 going into the 8th. Starter Justin Germano was solid yet again through 8 and Ketel Marte had three hits to run his line up to .342/.391/.432. Today, Sam Gaviglio leads the Rainiers into a series against Round Rock.
Jackson lost to Montgomery 3-2, but they still did more damage off of Blake Snell than any other team. After blanking the Generals through 6 IP, Jabari Blash connected for a HR – the first Snell’s given up all year. They scored another run that inning as well, DOUBLING Snell’s total runs allowed on the year, and running his AA ERA from under 0.3 to over 0.7. Ha! Over-rated, clap clap, clapclapclap! Not really, of course, as those would be the only runs on the day, and the Generals fell to 20-26. Today, Jake Zokan has his turn against the Biscuits.
Speaking of odd ERAs, Eddie Campbell had his best game of the year for Bakersfield, who topped Visalia 4-1. In the process, Campbell’s ERA dropped from 37+ down to a more manageable 14.09. Austin Wilson hit his 4th HR of the year as well. Today, it’ll be Ryan Yarbrough taking on Visalia’s Blayne Weller, who we discussed back in early May.
Clinton beat Peoria 11-8 in *15 innings* last night. The pitching star wasn’t Tyler Herb, who started and yielded 5 runs in 3 IP, but reliever Rohn Pierce who went 4 scoreless innings with 8 Ks. The L-Kings were up 8-2 early, lost the lead, then won it in the 15th on 5 straight singles. Tonight it’ll be TBD for Clinton up against the soap-operatically-named Keaton Steele of Cedar Rapids.
Game 10, Rangers at Mariners
JA Happ vs. Yovani Gallardo, 7:10pm
Great night for a ballgame tonight, and you head to Safeco to see the M’s and Rangers, or go south to Cheney for the Rainiers’ home opener. The M’s gut-wrenching sweep in LA hurt, but the M’s now get 16 straight games against the Rangers, Astros and Twins, the teams projected to rank 15th, 14th and 12th in the AL this year. The M’s Fangraphs projections haven’t taken too much of a hit thanks to that faceplant in Chavez Ravine because the Angels were swept by Kansas City a bit before. The Baseball Prospectus odds haven’t changed much, because the M’s were never favored in them – they saw the Angels as the clear favorite, and still do.
The Rangers acquired Gallardo from the Brewers to solidify the middle of their rotation. They had Yu Darvish and Derek Holland ahead, and would be bringing in some youngsters for the back, so getting a veteran #3 seemed like a great move even for a team that wasn’t ready to compete in 2015. Thanks to the injuries that continue to ravage the club, Gallardo’s now the de facto ace, and that’s asking a lot from the 29 year old. As I mentioned when the M’s faced him this spring, one of the issues facing Gallardo as he moves to the AL is the plethora of left-handed hitting thanks in part to the DH and in part because that’s just how the AL West rolls. The A’s have been platooning for years, the M’s have moved from a bunch of switch-hitters to a more Oakland-style of platooning. Gallardo’s straight-over-the-top delivery minimzed his platoon splits, but he still had some, and in the NL Central, he still got to face more righties than lefties.
When he’s on, his four-seam fastball’s a weapon against all hitters, and he can mix in a slider and a curve as well. Even as his strikeout rate has fallen, he’s maintained a level of effectiveness because he’s been able to get ground balls and limit walks. That’s what’s going to be interesting to see if he can maintain in the new league – his walk numbers are worse against lefties, but he’s balanced it by limiting HRs and getting K’s. If neither of those two things hold, and limiting HRs in Arlington is kind of a challenge, his stats may tumble. It’s early yet, but he’s been hit fairly hard, and by lefties in particular (and as you’d guess, he’s now facing more lefties than righties instead of the other way around). To counteract this, it looks like he may make more use of his change-up. He threw all of 20 of them in 2014, and he’s already at 12 just 9 innings and change into 2015. It’s something he’s been toying with for years, and his success with it will go a long way towards his overall value.
Among the fun things you can do with one week of data is scan through the list of each team’s most valuable player of 2015. The M’s most valuable position player has been Nelson Cruz, of course. The Rangers’ most valuable player has been ex-Mariner Carlos Peguero. The big Dominican didn’t get a shot last year in Kansas City, so he’s moved to the Rangers org, and he’s been forced into duty with injuries to Shin-Soo Choo and opening day LF Ryan Rua. Prince Fielder looks great at the plate, and he’s struck out just twice in 44 plate appearances this year, but he’s not hitting for power at all. But at least he’s hitting *something*. The Rangers come in with a slash line of .210/.290/.335 thanks to slow starts from Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor, and Leonys Martin. The splits are even more meaningless given the sample, but they’ve been worse against lefties, which makes sense given that only Fielder and Peguero are hitting, and they’re both southpaws. Fielder’s got sneaky large platoon splits over his career too, so it’s not a bad match up for JA Happ tonight.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, DH
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Happ
Zunino’s now struck out 14 times in 30 at-bats, and has just a single XBH. He’s never going to be a high-contact guy, so he needs to hit for power to (partially) offset all the whiffs. His o-swing has actually improved a bit this year, only to have his IN-zone contact plummet. Right now, pitchers are beating him with fastballs in the zone, and that simply can’t happen. Not sure what needs to change, but the poor kid is totally out of sorts thus far.
The Rainiers kick off their home schedule tonight with a 7:05 start against the El Paso Chihuahuas. Mike Kickham starts for Tacoma opposite James Needy; these two faced off five days ago in a forgettable 7-6 El Paso win. Needy gave up two HRs in that one, to Carlos Rivero and Patrick Kivlehan. The R’s picked up a win in extras yesterday, getting a great performance from Sam Gaviglio, who went the first six, and then 5 scoreless innings from the ‘pen.
AA Jackson continued their rained-out home opener yesterday, then played a 7 inning game after it. They lost the continuation game, but won the nightcap behind HRs from Gabby Guerrero and Jabari Henry. Moises Hernandez capped off a bullpen day to get the win. DJ Peterson’s slow start continues; after notching a single in game 1, he went 0-3 in game 2, dropping his season line to .080/.115/.080. Tyler Pike starts tonight against Mississippi.
Everything about Bakersfield’s game last night was terrible, with the exception of Tyler Marlette’s 3-3 night. They send Carlos Misell to the hill tonight against San Jose in the hopes of giving me something good to say tomorrow.
Clinton won 7-6 yesterday thanks to two Joe DeCarlo HRs. The over-slot 2nd rounder from the 2012 draft has taken a loooong time to get going in pro ball, and he’s moved down the defensive spectrum, but he’s off to a respectable start in the pitcher-friendly MWL. Alex Jackson went 0-6, but his line of .111/.219/.185 is better than Peterson’s. Tonight, Patrick Peterson gets the ball against Kane County.
The most anticipated baseballing event of the day had nothing to do with the M’s or its affiliates. Instead, the eyes of baseball fans were on Wrigley Field for the MLB debut of top prospect Kris Bryant. His brilliant spring and the Cubs decision to send him to the minors for service time manipulation seasoning/defensive work has been the talk of baseball for a month, perhaps even overshadowing much of the majors’ first week. He debuted in the clean-up spot, just like legendary Mariner prospect Al Chambers, and went 0-4 with 3 Ks. Bryant will always have some Ks, but he looked pretty lost against James Shields’ great change-up.* It was something of a let down for a crowd that was there to heap praise on the rookie. Bryant’s first AB became a sustained standing ovation, as the entire crowd stood and positioned their cell phones to capture Bryant’s first AB, which was over after 3 consecutive whiffs. I know it was a home game, but it struck me how things have changed that an entire crowd would be hanging on Bryant’s arrival. M’s fans didn’t do that with A-Rod, though in hindsight, we really should’ve. We probably WOULD have done it with Griffey, but of course he started off on the road. Mike Trout’s debut came at home (against the M’s), but I don’t remember anything like what Bryant got. Felix debuted on the road in a game that wasn’t even televised, so that definitely wouldn’t compare. Can you think of another MLB debut that’s been so anticipated? And who was the first prospect you were really, really excited to see join the big club?
* You know who never had a problem with James Shields’ change-up? Carlos Peguero, that’s who. The M’s weren’t a lot of fun in 2012-2013, but THAT – Peguero’s mastery of James Shields – always brought a smile to my face.
Meanwhile, In The AL West
Bummed about the Mariners losing two in a row to the Angels, after a promising opening day? That’s fine! We all are. On the other hand, at least the Mariners aren’t currently doing their damnedest to throw one of their most expensive players under the bus. Hit it, Arte Moreno.
Moreno, asked if he can say Hamilton will play another game with #Angels: “I will not say that.”
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 11, 2015
Moreno says Angels have separate language in Hamilton’s contract vs relapse and they may try to enforce it.
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 11, 2015
Kind of scummy, in that the Angels are clearly just trying to rid themselves of a problem contract, without showing any compassion for the player. They knew what they were signing, and they went ahead with it — Moreno and Josh Hamilton shook hands in the introductory press conference. I’ll say this, though: specifically because Hamilton had a known history, it would make sense for the Angels to try to include some protective language, if that’s even allowed. And then, you know, it’s their right to try to enforce it, or anything else, since contracts are contracts. Anything mutually agreed to becomes enforceable at any point. It’s just, sayyyyyy, what’s that?
Arte Moreno: Hamilton contract contains no special language protecting #Angels from relapse, aside from usual MLB drug policy language.
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 15, 2012
Oh, I get it, Moreno. You’re a liar! You know, like an asshole! Doesn’t mean he was lying today — could mean he was lying a few years ago. But, it doesn’t get much more black and white than this. Arte Moreno directly contradicted himself, and there’s one thing that’s changed over time — Josh Hamilton’s circumstances. At one point, he was an All-Star outfielder. At another point, he’s a massive disappointment fresh off a relapse. I wonder what might be causing Arte Moreno to treat him differently?
To be truthful, every team in baseball would probably act like this. I mean, not like this, but every team would have interest in voiding a bad contract, if at all possible. The big difference: other teams wouldn’t be doing this in the public arena. The Angels are making themselves look like total pricks, and though that does nothing to improve the Mariners’ odds of winning the 2015 World Series, it’s a kind of schadenfreude. We’re used to our organization being the one that looks stupid and tactless. Now we’re not even the second-worst offender in our own division. How does Arte Moreno sleep at night? On a comfortable bed in a large house, with impossible amounts of money to his name. But, also, he sucks.
Oh, and, before I go, Derek Holland will be out two months with a shoulder injury. On the plus side for the Rangers, Ryan Rua and Shin-Soo Choo were also removed from a game with injuries. Their injuries appear more minor. That is literally the plus side for the Rangers right now. They have injuries that could’ve been worse.
Game 4, Mariners at Athletics
Taijuan Walker vs. Drew Pomeranz, 7:05pm
After a disappointing opening series, the M’s head to Oakland to face a team that’s probably just as disappointed in THEIR opener. The A’s split a four-game series with the Rangers, and while Texas’ line-up includes big names like Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder, they are a *bad* ballclub. A team with a DH whose OBP over the last 2 years and 700 PAs is under .300, a team with question marks in the rotation, and punctuation marks that don’t appear to be english in the bullpen. A team that was forecasted to compete for last place *before* Yu Darvish went down with TJ surgery just took 2 of 4 in Oakland, including yesterday’s 4-HR 10-1 drubbing. My point isn’t that Oakland is suddenly, shockingly bad, just as the M’s aren’t bad because they lost 2 of 3 at home. It’s early, and weird things happen. We should just be happy they happen to other teams/fanbases as well.
Today’s game is a big one, as this is the first real test of Taijuan Walker 2.0. The re-worked mechanics, the pitch adjustments, the confidence he must’ve gained after a spring in which no one could touch him – it’s all put to the test tonight in a pitcher-friendly park. Walker’s a pretty important piece to the M’s in that he can stabilize the rotation a bit, and let depth like Roenis Elias fill other spots as needed, and because his projections were low enough that even a good year from Walker can help pick up the other players who will underperform. As we’ve seen, Walker pitches from the stretch exclusively, and features a live fastball at around 96, a slow curve in the low 70s, and a good split-change around 90. His in-between slider/cutter (slutter?) also comes in at 90, and despite the talk about a change, it looks pretty similar to the pitch he featured in his first call-up back in 2013.
While it’s always tough to rely too much on spring pitch fx numbers thanks to Peoria’s odd calibration, it’s a good sign that despite using the stretch, Walker’s velocity was the same or *higher* than it was in the spring of 2013, when he still used a wind-up. It was higher in the spring than it was in his big league debut in Houston, and higher than his first September start last year. I’m tempted to say that his velocity’s improved the more time passes after his injury, but a lot of it must be conditioning and mechanics. It’ll be something to watch tonight in what I presume will be a chilly April night in Oakland. The A’s were a good team against righties last year with big lefty bats like Brandon Moss and Josh Reddick, but Moss is in Cleveland and Reddick’s injured at the moment. Ben Zobrist is a switch hitter with very even splits, but other than that, Walker will only need to really be careful with Stephen Vogt. The A’s early struggles against righties don’t mean much, but with Reddick out and Ike Davis still playing like, well, Ike Davis, this isn’t a bad match-up for Walker.
Drew Pomeranz is a lefty who, like pretty much every other member of the club, remade himself after joining the A’s. He’d been a top draft pick of the Indians, moving to Colorado in the big Ubaldo Jimenez deal, but as a rising FB/curve ball hurler, he ran into problems in Coors field. He never really developed a change-up, and thus had trouble with right-handed hitters, and because of *that* faced line-ups stacked with right-handed hitters. Upon joining the A’s, he increased the use of his sinker dramatically. It was an afterthought in Colorado, but it’s an important part of his arsenal to righties now. That’s not to say he’s shelved the four-seamer – he’ll still throw it to righties, particularly after they’ve seen the two-seamer. The rising four-seamer probably also helps disguise his curve a bit. Whatever the reason, Pomeranz was suddenly very effective against righties last year, albeit in less than 70 IP as a swingman. The A’s are betting he can keep that up, and the M’s righty line-up will be a decent first test.
Last season, fully 1/4 of Pomeranz’s 20 appearances came against Seattle, and he had 16% of his total IP against the M’s. The M’s couldn’t figure him out, as he gave up 1 run in 11 IP against them, and walked nobody, despite occasional control problems against everyone else. The M’s have obviously re-tooled their line-up, and he’ll be facing Nelson Cruz and Rickie Weeks instead of Stefen Romero, John Buck and Cole Gillespie. That said, Nelson Cruz has fared poorly against curves in his career – he should look to get Pomeranz early, when he uses his sinker. In his career, Cruz is slugging .693 off the nearly 800 lefty sinkers he’s seen.
The line-up:
1: Weeks, LF
2: Jackson, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Ruggiano, RF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Bloomquist, SS
SP: Walker
The Rainiers dropped their opener in El Paso by a score of 11-4. Jordan Pries wasn’t sharp, and the relievers weren’t a whole lot better. Carlos Rivero opened the Rainiers account with a HR, but there’s not much more to say about the game. Abe Almonte went 5-5 for the home team, but Mike Curto kept things in perspective. Roenis Elias starts tonight against ex-Braves prospect Aaron Northcraft – game’s at 6:05, tune in to Curto or watch it on MiLB.tv.
Jackson shut-out Jacksonville 2-0 behind the pitching of Steven Landazuri and James Gilheeney. The game was scoreless into the 9th, but the Generals got two runs on RBIs by Gabby Guerrero and Jabari Henry. Today, Scott DeCecco starts against Jake Esch, which just sounds like a really affected way of saying jock itch.
The best prospect performance of the day belonged to Bakersfield RHP Edwin Diaz, who threw 5 scoreless innings with 8Ks against the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. The Blaze led 2-0 when Diaz left following a very minor league play – with a man on, Tyler Marlette singled, but the ball got past the OF, and after a relay throw went awry, Marlette had come all the way around to score. The Blaze bullpen couldn’t hold the lead, but given the way the lead was acquired, it’s tough to be too upset about it. Tonight, last year’s pop-up prospect Ryan Yarbrough starts against fringe Dodger prospect Zach Bird. Bird’s been very young for his leagues, and has prototypical size and athleticsm that he pairs with a FB that can touch 94-95. The potential there, but the results haven’t been as of yet, which is kind of a scary thing to think about as he makes his first foray into the California League.
Clinton was rained out yesterday, because of course they were. I lost count of their rain-outs last year, and it’s just really tough to see ANY minor league club lose two straight opening nights – it’s such an important night for revenue that teams are loathe to call a game, even in moderately heavy rain. Ah well, they’ll try and play tonight – they haven’t scheduled a double-header the way some of the other MWL clubs have. If it goes, Brazilian pitcher Daniel Missaki will take the hill against Brett Graves of the A’s org.
Cactus League Game 19, Rangers at Mariners
James Paxton vs. Yovani Gallardo, 1:05
I felt bad about missing yesterday’s Felix day until I saw the box score. Hopefully Paxton has an easier time of things today against the Rangers. He’ll face righty Yovani Gallardo who came over from Milwaukee in a trade for prospects. In one sense, the move was a curious one for Texas; they’re in a rebuild despite the presence of well compensated vets like Shin-Soo Choo (struggling with a forearm injury) and Prince Fielder (recovering from season-ending surgery last year). In another, he’s a desperately needed mid-rotation bridge between Yu Darvish at the top and a continually churning sea of AAA arms the Rangers will sort through in 2015.
Gallardo was supposed to be the ace of the Brewers rotation for years, but freak injuries and an inability to move from “promising” to “star” allowed the Rangers to acquire him for middling prospects. Gallardo’s strikeout rate has declined every year since peaking in 2009, and he’s now a below-average K guy…and that was in the NL. He throws a rising four-seamer at about 92, and also throws a sinker, a curveball and slider. He had a change-up that he’d use to lefties occasionally, but he essentially shelved that last year.
Gallardo’s straight-over-the-top delivery is noteworthy, and as many have noted, seems to be something that the Brewers consciously select for and/or teach. One of the presumed benefits of the over-the-the-top delivery is minimal platoon splits, and while Gallardo’s have bounced around, his career numbers bear this out – he’s got splits, but they’re on the low end of normal. That’ll be important as he moves from the division that plays match-ups the *least* (the NL Central) to the one that figures to do so the most. Gallardo has had the platoon advantage for the majority of his batters faced in each year since 2010. Yu Darvish faced lefties over 63% of the time last year. It’s going to be an adjustment for Gallardo.
The rising fastball should produce more fly balls (hopefully lowering BABIP), and Gallardo (and the other Brewers hurlers) have had problems with homers off and on. Oddly, though, Gallardo’s GB% has risen steadily as his K% dropped, and he’s now an above average grounder guy. Developing the sinker certainly helped (he was strictly a four-seam guy early on), but it’s also a testament to the fact that batters tend to put his breaking balls in play on the ground. At one point, they were swing-and-miss pitches, but that day’s long gone; when he’s on, Gallardo can minimize damage by getting batters to top curve balls to the infielders.
Line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Miller, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Paxton
Six lefties. Welcome to the AL West, Yovani.
Game 130, Rangers at Mariners
Roenis Elias vs. Miles Mikolas, 7:10pm
Wildcard odds: Fangraphs.com: 55.0% Baseballprospectus.com: 55.6%
I’ve made no secret of my respect and grudging admiration for the way the great Rangers teams of recent years were constructed. There was no was to sum up what they did in a 10-second elevator pitch. There were no good guys and bad guys, no “one weird trick”-style overly-simplifications. They just did a lot of things well – from drafting to player development to negotiating their TV deal to pitcher rehab. They didn’t stock up on high draft picks, they just wrung value out of the guys they drafted. To patch holes, GM Jon Daniels made a series of trades that all seemed to work out – without seeming to imperil the long-term viability of the team. They didn’t overpay for Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton or Prince Fielder (foreshadowing!) – they wrapped up Yu Darvish for a comparative pittance, and let others pay for the decline phase of ex-Ranger stars. Whatever you call their approach, or to get management-consulty for a moment, their system – it made them seem, at least to a beaten-down, cynical M’s fan, unbeatable.
It’s late August, and the Rangers have the worst record in major league baseball. Their 50 wins are fewer than the Colorado Rockies have – the Rockies that have very publicly imploded this year. Worse, they now trail their in-state and in-division rivals the Houston Astros by four games. The *Astros*. The team that has famously not tried to win at the big league level, and whose recent seasons remind me of famously awful albums recorded by artists trying to escape a bad record deal. The Rangers season isn’t just a failure, it’s a legendary, colossal failure. As I mentioned a bit before, Sam Miller wrote about this recently at BP, and about how shocking it is that a team that had won 90 games a few years AND had a top-5 farm team three years ago is on its way to losing 90 or 100 games this year. It rarely happens, and it’s easy to see why – to be both good now *and* seemingly stocked for the future takes competence, and while anyone can suffer from bad luck, the competent have contingency plans. A top-5 farm system is its own contingency plan, after all. Anyway, a collapse this total and this sudden makes you question the qualities that made them seem impervious to collapse.
To give Daniels and co. credit, injuries have played an inordinate role in Texas’ 2014 struggles. Every team deals with injuries, but the Rangers are off the charts. Adrian Beltre and Darvish started the year on the DL, and it didn’t take long for Prince Fielder to go down with season-ending surgery. Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Martin Perez all suffered serious injuries, and that’s just looking at the pitchers. Jurickson Profar went down with an injury in the spring, and his somewhat-rushed replacement, Rougned Odor, suffered a shoulder injury that’s limited his impact. 1B Mitch Moreland wasn’t terribly good, but he was better than turning 1B over to JP Arencibia or the ghost of Carlos Pena. Even the best-run franchise couldn’t compete or even make a run at .500 with this kind of injury report. Still, what about that top-5 farm system? Where were the great late-round draft picks who could pick up the slack, from CJ Edwards to Cody Buckel to Neil Ramirez? The player development machine that once looked magical now looks…well, it looks like everyone else’s. I’m not going to beat up the Rangers FO because some prospects don’t pan out – MOST prospects don’t pan out. But their depth seemed inexhaustable. Who the hell is Nick Tepesch and why could he give them so-so production from the #5 slot? Tanner Scheppers was always hurt until, suddenly, he was the unhittable righty in the ’13 bullpen.
More strikingly, the team that had studiously avoided the big high-profile whiff in free agency or in trade made a series of them. The Shin-Soo Choo deal looked like an overpay, but we’re still at the point where *everything* can look like an overpay as the value of a win in free agency keeps rising along with MLB’s revenues. OK, so you paid a lot for a very good player. Instead, Choo’s been replacement level – undone by a shocking lack of power and abysmal defense. Worse, the team decided to eat Prince Fielder’s contract in the Ian Kinsler swap – a move that pretty much every saber-inclined observer panned, and which went from bad to worse when Fielder needed neck surgery early in the season.
They’ve gone from a team that seemed to magnify each other’s strengths (great defense making the pitchers look even better) to a team that seems like a hodge-podge of parts that don’t form a cohesive team. The Rangers are last in the AL in both FIP and ERA. The Rangers have the lowest GB% AND they have an atrocious outfield defense that now makes their pitchers look WORSE than they are. Miles Mikolas, tonight’s starter, has poor control, so he’s responsible for a lot of his own 55% (!) strand rate, but the fact that he’s a fly-baller with Alex Rios and Shin-Soo Choo behind him doesn’t help. Mikolas, a RHP they acquired after he was DFA’d by San Diego, traded to Pittsburgh and then shipped to Texas for a 1B prospect, throws about 93-94 and has a four- and two-seam fastball, a change-up, a slider and an interesting looking curve ball, was a reliever his entire career until this season. After never being able to harness a fastball that occasionally touched the high-90s, he was starting in the PCL and averaging less than one walk per 9IP. The so-so control to sudden, overnight 0-walk precision made me think of Doug Fister’s incredible 2009 season, but that’s probably the last time Mikolas will be mentioned in conjunction with Fister. Mikolas has been destroyed thus far in the big leagues – his ERA and FIP are both awful, and he’s given up a few HRs as well.
He’s posted strong reverse platoon splits in his brief MLB career (he had some time in the San Diego bullpen too, mostly in 2012). Much of this is undoubtedly random luck, and you’d think they’d straighten out over time. But some of it is that curve ball, a slow yakker with a lot of vertical break. RHBs and LHBs both have trouble elevating it, and he’s been able to keep the ball in the ballpark. The problem is that he can’t spot it. He throws it for a ball over half the time, so he’s not getting called strikes. Still, there’s something to work with. His fastballs have been problematic, and his slider’s not enough of a swing-and-miss pitch yet. This lack of command means he doesn’t resemble a guy who never walked anyone in the minors this year, and it makes it seem less likely that he’s been the victim of bad OF defense and more like an accomplice. He’s not giving up base hits on fly balls – he’s giving up home runs. His line drive BABIP looks pretty normal, too – the problem is that there are just too many of them.
This is a good match-up, basically.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Chavez, RF
9: Taylor, SS
SP: Elias
I keep wondering what it is about the Rangers collapse I find so startling. Is it unsettling to think that it’s just not possible to prevent every outcome – that no one can think their way out of a systemic failure? I’m a bit surprised I don’t feel more schadenfreude about the whole thing, particularly after the M’s post-2009 collapse (“#6 org lololol!”). I know how I’ve felt the past few years when the Rangers would come to town in August, tuning up for the post season, and facing a Mariner team stuck in “rebuild,” showing some promise but ultimately going nowhere. I like this feeling much, much better. I like poking through someone else’s wreckage.
The Rainiers beat the Iowa Cubs in 14 innings last night, coming from behind in the 14th to do it. Kris Bryant homered for the I-Cubs because of course he did, but the R’s got a HR from Corey Hart and another from Ji-Man Choi. Taijuan Walker pitches tonight, so go go go go. 7:05 first pitch in Tacoma.
Before this even got posted, I’ve had to update it with more Rangers injury news. According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Shin-Soo Choo will miss the rest of the season to have surgery to remove bone spurs. And if that wasn’t enough, Daniels all but stated that Yu Darvish won’t pitch again this season after hitting the DL two weeks ago with elbow inflammation.
Game 106, Mariners at Indians
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Trevor Bauer, 4:05pm
The M’s trouble scoring has brought their on-again, off-again pursuit of the second wild card to a head. According to BP’s metric, their playoff odds have dropped by 25 percentage points over the past week. Speaking of playoff odds, the Indians’ are now just a bit ahead of the Mariners’ by the Fangraphs/Coolstandings metric (though not by BP’s playoff odds) thanks to a better schedule down the stretch. That the Indians are in the race isn’t a shock; they won a WC berth last year, after all. What *IS* interesting is that they’ve got the 6th-best offense in baseball despite the implosion of several players they were counting on as middle-of-the-order threats. Nick Swisher has collapsed to a 72wRC+, and as his defensive ratings have collapsed as well, he’s been one of the least valuable players in baseball. Asdrubal Cabrera didn’t bounce back from a subpar 2013, and 2B Jason Kipnis – the breakout start who posted a 128 wRC+ last year – has slumped to a 95 wRC+; he’s gone from adding over 23 batting runs in 2013 to less than two this year. The big reason for their team-wide success has been the continued effectiveness of catcher Yan Gomes as well as the incredible emergence of Michael Brantley, son of ex-M’s CF Mickey Brantley. Brantley’s WAR places him in between Paul Goldschmidt and Robinson Cano, and looking solely at batting runs, he’s firmly in the top 10 in all of baseball, ahead of luminaries like Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista and Miguel Cabrera.
Cleveland’s pitching has been surprisingly good, especially considering Danny Salazar’s faceplant. The Indians’ rotation’s put up a 3.69 FIP, slightly ahead of the M’s 3.82. To be fair, they’ve actually allowed more runs than that, so on TV as opposed to spreadsheetland, you might not come away with the impression that the M’s and Indians were all that close. But the rotation that lost two of its best starters last year is keeping them in contention, and that’s at least a minor surprise. Trevor Bauer hasn’t been the biggest contributor – that’d be Corey Kluber by quite a margin – but he’s a key reason why the Indians survived the loss of Scott Kazmir and Ubaldo Jimenez. Bauer is pitching like the top prospect he once was, and he’s rewarding the Indians for their patience.
Bauer was drafted #3 overall in 2011 and shot through the Arizona system. At every level, he posted eye-popping strikeout rates, but he paired them with elevated walk rates as well. When you’re striking out 30% of opposing batters, a high walk rate is tolerable, but he also had some HR trouble at times. By the time he hit AAA, the HRs became more of an issue, and his velocity was more above-average than exceptional. He threw six or seven pitches, but frequently had trouble commanding most of them. In a brief call-up with Arizona, he was a mess – the walk rate became unbearably high, he had HR problems as well, and then got into a very public tiff with his catcher, leading the team to just-as-publicly disparage him and all but hang a “for sale” sign around his neck. Cleveland picked him up in the Shin-Soo Choo deal, and he rewarded their faith by getting even worse in 2013. It was just 17 IP, but he gave up 17 free passes to just 11 strikeouts. His average fastball velocity was 92, just 43% of his pitches hit the strikezone, and essentially no one was fooled – his o-swing rate of 20% makes Chris Young look like Yu Darvish. The kid who was so analytical about his own approach was at risk of bouncing out of the league.
His career at a crossroads, Bauer overhauled his mechanics at home and locally with the help of Kyle Boddy of Driveline baseball in Puyallup. The Indians noticed, and after bringing him up in mid-May (after tearing through the IL), he’s rewarded them with 80 solidly above-average innings. The first thing you notice is that he’s halved his walk rate. After double-digit walk rates in his MLB call-ups AND at every step of the minors, Bauer’s dropped to 8% (and 7% at AAA Columbus) in 2014. Has he done so by dropping three or four of his eclectic, almost experimental, pitches? No, he’s throwing more pitches this year according to BrooksBaseball. Is he taking something off the fastball to locate it better? No, his fastball velocity is UP about 1.5mph.
To learn more about how and why Bauer was able to transform his mechanics and his results, I talked to Kyle Boddy. What does HE think about the old saw that you can essentially trade some velocity for control? “If anything, there is a weak positive correlation between the two (though obviously if you throw slower, you probably don’t want to hit the strike zone that much).” Is Bauer actually throwing more different pitches this year, or is that just the pitch-type algorithms learning more about him? “I’d say [he is throwing more pitches]. He doesn’t throw all of them every game, and he does try to change some of his pitches’ profiles as well. The slider he throws now is slightly different than the one he started throwing. As you can guess, PITCHf/x neural nets have a hell of a time classifying them, as I’m sure Pavlidis does as well.” As Kyle mentioned, Bauer’s slider has actually slowed down as his FB’s gained a step, and if anything, the slider looks much more like a curveball. His curve’s at 79mph, while the slider’s down at 81mph. However, thanks to spin deflection, their vertical movement is quite different. To have a pitch that functions more like a hard slider, Bauer throws a cutter around 87-88.
Another part of Bauer’s new delivery is his position on the mound. Last year, he shifted his position on the rubber depending on the handedness of the hitter. This year, he’s sticking to the first-base side of the rubber regardless of who’s at the plate. Was that a conscious decision, or just something that felt comfortable. Perhaps unsurprisingly for Bauer/Boddy, it was definitely not based on gut feel: “Yes, he did [move on the rubber in 2013], and now he does not. It was a conscious change to throw off the 1b side of the rubber only for tactical reasons. He felt his pitches profiled better off that side of the rubber, and I agreed.” Despite his success in bringing down his walk rate, he’s still giving up some home runs. As a fly-ball pitcher and someone who’s publicly questioned the mania for keeping the ball down, it’s perhaps that’s not a surprise. So I asked Boddy if there’s a balance Bauer needs to watch between throwing FBs high in the zone to get whiffs and pop-ups on the one hand and giving up extra-base hits and dingers on the other. “Actually his RAA/100 is very, very good in the top part of the zone if you look at the data. On all pitches thrown in the upper quartile of the zone, Trevor is not giving up XBH and HR and BB at a detrimental rate, and in fact balls down in the zone have a worse run value than ones up. I think a major current failing of the sabermetric community at large is to rely on relatively old DIPS theories as if they were locked in stone, while remaining ignorant of the fact that there are significant advanced in analytics caused by HITf/x and Trackman data – neither of which is public. Batted ball exit velocity and trajectory are pretty important variables that few people actually pay attention to. Trevor’s LD% is very high which is probably somewhat luck, but not entirely. His main problem is a low percentage of first pitch strikes – in fact, he is well below-average there. That has been correlated with increased bat exit speed as hitters take more confident swings and do more damage when they are ahead (obviously).”
Interesting stuff. I’ll end this with a comparison – here’s a heatmap showing where Bauer throws his four-seam fastball. It’s nearly all up; mostly up and in. Here’s Hisashi Iwakuma’s since the beginning of 2013. I’m not going to say they’re mirror images; they’re not. Iwakuma’s fastball is more centered in the zone rather than scraping the top. He’s also kept it out and over the plate as opposed to up and in. The point is that in Bauer and Iwakuma you’ve got two completely different pitchers who approach their task in very different ways, and yet both tend to ignore both sabermetric and traditional advice when it comes to their fastball. Iwakuma pounds the bottom of the zone with his sinker and (especially) his splitter. As a result, he gets tons of ground balls and because he gets ahead, his walk rate is a rounding error from zero. Bauer pitches up, and even his slider/cutter typically result in elevated contact. He’s brought his walk rate down, but it’s still not low, and as Kyle mentioned, he’s often had to pitch from behind (Statcorner’s data agrees with this). But that doesn’t mean he’s interested in throwing his four-seamer at the knees. Both Iwakuma and Bauer have moderate HR problems, and while Iwakuma’s clearly a star in spite of them, it’s possible Bauer could join him.
Bauer’s platoon splits are a bit odd, but ultimately, lefties have had a better time than righties. Thus, the M’s have a lefty-heavy line-up today:
1: Ackley, LF
2: Taylor, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Zunino, C
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Hart, RF
9: Jones, CF
SP: Iwakuma
No Miller, but Taylor certainly needs some playing time. Ackley moves up to leadoff, as Bob Dutton talked about a few days ago.
Speaking of Dutton, he mentioned today that the M’s will hold a private workout with Cuban defector Rusney Castillo on Sunday. The big OF has been working out for several teams; no word on his timing to sign a deal. The M’s *have* signed one of the top-5 International “July 2” talents in Brayan Hernandez, a switch-hitting OF seen by some as the top Venezuelan in this year’s market.
The Rainiers face Salt Lake today, and nearly-ex-Mariner Randy Wolf, on his third team since being let go at the end of spring training. The M’s went with Chris Young instead, a move that sounded like insanity to me at the time and :phtooo:, what the :wipes face: hell? Where did all of these eggs come from?