What to do with Brandon Morrow
This has been a pretty boring spring, so far. Besides the Putz arm scare, there have been no injury problems of note, and besides Willie Bloomquist hitting like a man possessed, the performances have been pretty blase overall. Until last week, anyways.
That’s when Brandon Morrow showed up in Mesa with a 95 MPH fastball and a tight slider that made the heart of the Cubs order look stupid. I was highly impressed watching him, and I wasn’t alone, as Mike Hargrove used that performance as a launching point to begin publically lobbying for Morrow to make the team out of spring training. He’s continued to pitch well since that appearance, and Grover’s fondness for the kid isn’t getting any more private. After every outing, he makes it well known that he’d like to see the Mariners first round pick from last summer come north with the team as a reliever when camp ends.
While the Mariners are well known for rushing their kids through the system as quickly as possible, this certainly wasn’t the plan heading into March. Despite all the talk since the pick, the Mariners drafted Morrow as a starter, and he was ticketed for a rotation spot Double-A West Tennessee. The organization has always hoped that Morrow would develop into a starting pitcher, and he wasn’t drafted to be the closer of the future.
However, with Putz’s questionable availability for opening day and the organization short-sightedly creating a mediocre to bad bullpen behind him, Morrow suddenly looks like something of an answer to a legitimate problem on the 2007 squad. With guys like Mateo and Reitsma being handed the ball in the 7th and 8th innings, the Mariners lack a power arm who can be asked to get a strikeout in a key situation that isn’t a save possibility. Successful bullpens aren’t built around handing the ball to guys like Mateo and Reitsma in high leverage situations, so Hargrove has correctly identified the need for a legitimate quality arm to stick in front of J.J. Putz.
The question, then, becomes whether the Mariners should put the short term needs of the 2007 roster ahead of the long term needs of the franchise. Brandon Morrow, at some point in his career, needs to start some games in the minor leagues. His longest appearance in his professional career is three innings. He’s never had to go through the line-up a second time and make adjustments. He’s never had to pace himself to get through a professional game, knowing that there aren’t glaring weak spots in line-ups like there are in college. If you want Brandon Morrow to be a starter in the majors, then he has to be a starter in the minors, at some point, for at least a little while.
The question isn’t whether Morrow would be an effective major league reliever in 2007. It’s likely he would be. He’s got top shelf stuff, especially when he’s throwing max effort for 15-20 pitches, and relieving is the easiest job in baseball. The question is whether you’re willing to delay Brandon Morrow’s ascension to the rotation in order to patch a hole this year. For Mike Hargrove, whose job is on the line, it’s an easy answer. For Bill Bavasi, whose job description is to care for the franchise and not concentrate solely on winning games this year, it’s a tougher one. There is no obvious, easy answer here.
Personally, I’m torn. I want to see this team win, because I’m tired of finishing in last place, blogging about a team that has some upside but is forced to focus on the failures of its manager and the roster construction that left holes that could have easily been filled. I don’t want to see Ichiro leave. I don’t want to go through a summer of what-could-have-been as Doyle hits .320 for the Nationals while the Mariners struggle to find someone who can get on base with any kind of regularity. I want this team to win, and to win, they need a power right-handed setup guy to get to J.J. Putz. Brandon Morrow could legitimately be the answer to a problem that the team is going to have to address at some point.
But I also want the team to win in 2008, 2009, and 2010, and I think everyone will agree that those teams will be better if Brandon Morrow is throwing 100 pitches every five days than if he’s throwing 15 pitches every other day. The Mariners still have rotation holes to fill going forward, and most of the promising young arms in the system aren’t going to be ready for a few years. If the organization wants to fill those holes from within, Brandon Morrow is likely the best chance they’ll have.
While it’s pretty common for prospects to come up early as relievers and then move to the rotation, it isn’t common for those same pitchers to learn to how to pitch as professional starting pitchers in the major leagues. If Morrow is carried as a reliever this year, and then the team decides to shift him to the rotation for 2008, he’s going to have to learn on the job in front of 30,000 people. That’s not good player development. At some point, for his own best interest, Morrow needs to spend some period of weeks in the minors as a starting pitcher.
That either needs to happen this year or next year. If you carry him as a reliever this year and still intend to let him start at some point, you need to be prepared to have him begin 2008 in the minor leagues, regardless of how well he pitches out of the pen this year. And it’s nearly impossible to send a kid to the minors once he’s had success in the majors without creating all kinds of ill will with the player.
So, I can see both sides. I can see why Mike Hargrove wants Morrow on his staff, and I can see why Bill Bavasi should probably tell him that he can’t have him. Not yet, anyways. Morrow’s future as a starting pitcher is too valuable to this club to push back his timeframe on joining the rotation. Send the kid to West Tennessee and let him start for a month or two. If the team still needs a right handed power arm in June, give him a look.
If you carry him as a reliever on opening day, you may never have the chance to get him back to the minors. And asking him to learn how to be a starting pitcher at the major league level just isn’t fair to Brandon Morrow. The long term risk outweighs the short term rewards. Resist the temptation. It’s not worth it.
Sherill in peril, Raul stays cool
Both the Times notebook and the PI notebook carry “what happens to Sherill now” articles.
Ibanez is comfortable hitting cleanup. And we all float on.
Publishers Weekly on Cheater’s Guide
How cool is that, The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball got reviewed in Publishers Weekly.
Baseball blogger Zumsteg (ussmariner.com) argues that cheating-within reason-is not only not a bad thing, it actually makes baseball a more nuanced game. Using a wealth of anecdotal evidence and some statistical analysis, he argues that baseball has evolved hand-in-hand with the aid of its scoundrels, scamps, and shifty characters-and that doctoring the ball or stealing signs necessitates teams, umpires and even fans adopt more complex strategy. Zumsteg draws the line at gambling, game fixing and steroid use, showing little sympathy for the Black Sox and even less for Pete Rose. While baseball aficionados will be familiar with many of Zumsteg’s stories, his wit will keep most casual fans entertained. Whether he’s describing what might happen in a car crash with Pete Rose (“I admitted that I hit your car … Can’t we stop this witch-hunt and get on with our lives?”) or laying blame for the steroid era on everyone from the commissioner to the fans, Zumsteg dispenses with the sanctimoniousness of most current sports writing. Although his prose style and humor are sometimes better suited to the Web (a few lengthy asides come across as amateurish), Zumsteg still creates a funny, honest look at the history of baseball’s black arts.
They may well be referring to the conversation about intestinal parasites Jeff and I have in the steroids chapter (“A Conversation About Jason Giambi with Fulbright Scholar Jeff Shaw”). It is… well, if I made a list of adjectives to describe that sidebar, “professional” would not be one of them.
Anyway — pre-order now, while it’s still a bargain at $11.
The M’s FSN deal
I see a number of interesting issues.
The M’s won’t be starting the M’s channel for at least 10y
The M’s are now the highest-rated, most-lucrative team without being broadcast on a regional sports network they’re owners of. It’s a great way for teams to hide money from revenue sharing, and the M’s, it seems, have decided again to forsake it.
The ratings
That FSN was willing to go 10y, 300m given the team’s fortunes says a lot about how the ratings have stood up over the last couple of years. They must be selling a lot of heavy-duty trucks.
10y/300m is a ridiculously small bump
If you look at TV deals for sports packages, they’ve increased in cost a lot since the last deal the M’s signed, and yet this one doesn’t reflect that. The M’s are getting a lot of money, but it’s surprising that they weren’t able to get more, as so many others have.
Why sign for so long?
This is what really baffles me. If the team believes that they’re going to return to contention, wouldn’t they want to extend the current deal, and make about as much money now, and then, as they did with the last one, push for a longer deal when they’ve got a pennant and all the leverage? With the market for sports broadcast rights ever-increasing, why would the team tie themselves down for the next decade for such a modest raise?
Obviously they think this deal makes good business sense, and the M’s are, business-wise, great at getting money out of the franchise. But I wonder what their thinking was here.
Bonanza of broadcast bucks, Broussard benefits bench
The PI reports that the M’s and Fox Sports Net nearing a 10-year (!) $300m (!!) deal. Also, Broussard looks like he’s wrapped up that bench job.
Geoff Baker, on the team’s intangibles and other stuff… well, let’s cut to it:
The numbers here can lead to silly debates among those reading the box scores thousands of miles away.
Where some Mariners fans are concerned, the debate is whether Ben Broussard, or even Tony Torcato, should replace Richie Sexson at first base. Or whether sizzling spring star Willie Bloomquist should be handed Ichiro’s leadoff spot in the order. There have been calls for homer-plagued Jeff Weaver to be dumped from the rotation in favor of Ryan Feierabend.
What? Who?
Did Steve get to you?
Lowe lurid, Ichiro intellectual, Weaver whacked, Burke backup?
A dastardly tale of deception over in the Everett Herald. Apparently being injured doesn’t save you from the wrath of the team’s pranksters.
Ichiro has a TV show, in case you weren’t aware. This piece is more noteworthy for some typically philosophical Ichiro quotes, however.
If your mantra is that everything you do should be for the benefit of the team, you become incapable of valuing yourself. You become a less-than-ideal player. You become a player that fans don’t pay to come and see. In the end, that kind of player doesn’t benefit the team.
Times: Jeff Weaver doesn’t like getting up early. Poor baby.
Also, LHP Eric O’Flaherty is pitching well. Given Arthur Rhodes’ stiff elbow and George Sherrill’s control/mechanics problem… well, you never know. Plus, red-hot Armando Benitez update!
John Hickey notes that 35-yo Jamie Burke might break camp as Johjima’s backup. Except he calls him “Larry.” Considering Rene Rivera is terrible, I don’t see how that could be a bad thing. Hargrove says Burke and Rivera are even. Burke’s career numbers, if you’re interested. In any event, Jamie-Larry is starting for the M’s today behind the dish.
Roster moves: RHP Cha-Seung Baek and LHP Ryan Feierabend were optioned to Tacoma. RHP Renee Cortez was sent to minor league camp.
Fat Felix and Edwin Nunez
My buddy Seth chimes in with his thoughts on King Felix’s off-season conditioning, over in the PI.
Stone supposes success, Sherrill struggles, songster, Sims’ story
Larry Stone, a day after my “Hope and Faith” piece, argues that “Believe it or not, M’s have shot“.
Sherrill’s continued mechanics problems: Baker, a PI duo.
Broussard wants more playing time… and to be a doctor. He’s already a musician, so why not.
Art Thiel the day after kidney-punching ownership to talk about new broadcaster Dave Sims. David Andreisen poses and answers 10 questions
RED HOT CULT OF DOYLE UPDATES
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Doyle goes 1-1 with three (three) walks. The headline on the Nationals side is “Church sliding, Snelling soaring” as it appears he may win the starting left field job. Since I know you’re curious:
Doyle: .310/.432/.690
Jubal Early: You know, with the exception of one deadly and unpredictable midget, this girl is the smallest cargo I’ve ever had to transport. Yet by far the most troublesome. Does that seem right to you?
Dr. Simon Tam: What’d he do?
Jubal Early: Who?
Dr. Simon Tam: The midget.
Jubal Early: Arson. The little man loved fire.
How the M’s Can Win the World Series @ BP
My contribution to BP’s Hope and Faith series is up. Unfortunately for the teeming masses (unless you don’t like my writing, then I’d be curious why you were here), it’s subscriber-only. Check it out if you can.
This offers an opportunity to say a couple of things. I don’t think I’ve ever really said more about leaving BP than “we had a difference in the direction of the business” and I don’t think I’m going to ever say more. I’ve contributed after I left, I’m still friends with some of the guys, and I’m proud of the work I did there, both writing for the book projects and on the site. I grew as a baseball writer immensely while I was part of that group, and I owe them a lot, no matter how it turned out.
Which is why I read a comment in the new book (Raul Ibanez) and flipped out, because it seemed like there were two things there intended to knife me specifically, to reduce all the contributions I made to one comment and then use that comment as a reason for to fire me.
And now there are two things:
– Many other people who read it thought that too
– That is not what it was even if many other people who read it thought that too
I railed in private on Steve Goldman for letting it through (Steve, to his credit, was great through this whole thing, and I would do well to try and be as calm and understanding). Goldman told me that it was totally a joke, he probably put it there in editing, it wasn’t a slight, and as much as I respect Steve, I was so angry that I thought that someone else put the dig in there and he didn’t catch the meaning because he didn’t know the history.
I am (obviously) not proud of this, but I was entirely livid for almost a day, and it wasn’t at all helped by having other people react the same way, or pick the book up and flip out on my behalf, or hearing from people even in BP that had the same reaction.
Dave, as you may have seen, took up the cause publicly while I, trying to calm down, finished the article which runs on Prospectus today. At the time, I was determined that I’d polish it up and submit it to fulfill my promise to Christina Kahrl, and figure out what, if anything I’d do later. I know, it seems a little nutty now. But it helped.
Later, of course, research and clearer heads prevailed: the comment being mocked wasn’t even mine, Goldman did the insert during editing, that author’s still there, so even as a joke it’s not true. Goldman even apologized for the unintentional consequence that it could and was being read as.
So there’s a thing, and if you look at it knowing I wrote the M’s chapters for most of my time there, and especially if you know something about my exit, it looks like someone I disagreed with made a really nasty cut. If you’re me, you might see red for a day before you can calm down, because it read like a mockery and dismissal of my work there combined with a break in the cordial post-departure relations we’ve had.
I had my problems with BP – obviously, since I left – but that’s that. I continue to read their stuff, I point people to good research published there, I love PECOTA, and my friends there are still (I hope) my friends. I don’t criticize them for their failings because I figure you can get that elsewhere and, really, I don’t want to. Leaving was painful, and I want to be on good terms more than I want to continue fights I conceded years ago and moved on from.
That said, and I realize I haven’t said this publicly – I’ve apologized to Dave repeatedly about the whole thing, because I feel like I let him pick the public fight, and you saw the results. I rehashed that in an earlier post, but I’m sorry about how things went. While I regret almost everything that happened that day, we should all be so blessed to have such concerned and loyal friends.
To sum up:
– The M’s have to be pretty lucky to win the World Series
– That Ibanez comment isn’t intended as a dig at me
– My reaction reveals I can be ridiculously sensitive about my time at BP and my departure
I hope that I have an article up there testifies to the state of relations.
King Felix running loose?
From CBS Sportsline’s Scott Miller:
PEORIA, Ariz. — Psst, pay attention here. Because something is about to occur in the quiet Pacific Northwest that could — could — positively rock the baseball world this summer, shake the AL West and rattle the Cy Young cages.
The Seattle Mariners are about to remove the leash from The King.
And long live Felix Hernandez.
There are quotes about his conditioning, his desire to finish games, his desire to be “the man.” The King himself says he was fat last year. But the best quote is this one:
“He’s stupid young,” Bavasi says. “It’s ridiculous. That is so forgotten because he’s as big as a house, he’s sure of himself and he’s never done anything wrong.
“People look at him like Bob Gibson. But he was a child last year.”
Did Bavasi really say “stupid young”? I guess he did.