Game 107, Mariners at Orioles
Happy Felix Day!
The Boy King takes the hill today against another young pitcher, Erik Bedard, in Bikram Yoga-like conditions. Somebody make sure Felix drinks plenty of fluids, and not those Freddy Garcia-style fluids, either. The M’s went 8-7 against the Yankees, Jays, Red Sox and Indians. They need to make hay against teams like the Orioles to have a shot.
I know it’s too early for scoreboard watching, but I’ll note that Oakland has Esteban Loiaza (who has been atrocious this year) going against the Angels’ Kelvim Esobar. The Rangers are booting Boof Bonser and the Twins around.
I’ll post the lineup when it’s available.
Late edit: Jeff’s such a liar. He never posted the lineup.
Fans of Global Baseball, Take Note
If you’re interested in the international side of the national pastime — or if you want a look behind the scenes of the sausage factory that is overseas player acquisition — you’ve got to check out Global Baseball, a new blog by my friend Jon Helfgott.
Basically, he’s going to spend a year traveling the world and watching baseball. I know, I know, with the resulting understandable jealousy it’s tempting to loathe him instantly. But Jon’s project is very interesting, and he’s got a keen eye and sharp attention to detail. His work is being funded by the Thomas J. Watson fellowship, and here’s the essentials of what he’s doing:
I want to use baseball as a medium for exploring the complex dynamics that accompany cultural exchange. For my project, I will immerse myself in various international baseball communities across Latin America and the Pacific Rim, where I will seek out, observe, and engage baseball players, fans, coaches, and scouts wherever I can find them. Baseball’s expansion mirrors the process of economic globalization in many ways. The game of baseball is an accessible and meaningful way to examine the deeper cultural implications of this process.
So if you want to get perspective on international scouting or the latest on potential Cuban defectors, give it a read. Since Jon’s going to Australia, too, I expect him to find the next Doyle.
Also, Jon and I are going to be in Okinawa together for next year’s Japanese baseball spring training, so we’re going to put the “fun” back in “fundamentals.” and the greenies back in coffee.
[See why Dave was so excited to watch Derek and me on live TV? Stuff like this comes out. Anyway, check out Jon’s blog.]
Game 106, Mariners at Orioles
LHP Jamie Moyer v RHP Rodrigo Lopez. 4:05, FSN. Weather service reports it’s 97 degrees with 45% humidity right now. Ow. You can check out the Excessive Heat Warning.
Great day for a game, if they were here in Seattle.
Nothing really interesting in the M’s lineup.
Gil Meche Revisited Yet Again
I know I wrote about this three weeks ago, but I feel compelled to once again talk about everyone’s favorite subject, Gil Meche, who has created a divide of opinions wider than the physique of Emiliano Fruto. Meche has been labeled a lot of things during the first four months of the season; a bum, a guy who turned the corner, an ace, prime trade bait, and most recently, a bum again. Consistency has not been Meche’s forte. After getting torched again last night, his July ERA ended at 5.67, the worst of any month so far.
So, once again, we’re forced to look at Meche and try to figure out what to expect the last two months of 2006. If this team is going to make a run at the AL West, we need Good Gil Meche to show up a lot more often than Crappy Gil Meche. I’ve given up hope that Crappy Gil Meche has been evicted; at this point, it’s obvious that he’s going to show up often enough to frustrate us all, but we just have to hope that Good Gil Meche shows up more often.
So, if we looked at Meche’s months by ERA, we’d see the following: 4.78, 4.93, 1.60, 5.67. June looks like a pretty big outlier, doesn’t it? June was clearly a fluke, and he reverted to form in July, or so the analysis would go.
Except its not true, and this is yet another reason why using ERA to try to predict future performance is futile. Let’s take a look at Meche’s rate stats, by month:
Month BB% K% GB% FB% LD% HR/FB FIP xFIP April 11% 17% 39% 39% 22% 13% 5.27 5.03 May 11% 21% 46% 40% 14% 12% 4.70 4.60 June 7% 19% 44% 43% 14% 5% 3.32 4.30 July 9% 23% 38% 42% 20% 15% 4.74 4.07
In April, he was the same lousy pitcher we’ve seen for years. In May, he started missing more bats, which helped make him just mediocre instead of crappy. In June, the command improved significantly and he was helped by an unsustainable home run rate. In July (or more accurately, his last two starts), his command regressed and the home run rate went to the other end of the spectrum, but despite the high ERA, it was still obviously his second best month of the year, significantly better than April or May. From a predictive standpoint, you could argue that it was even better than June, because his strikeout rate increased more drastically than his walk rate did, and the 15% HR/FB rate isn’t going to continue any more so than the 5% did in June.
Yes, Gil Meche was pretty terrible last night. But when evaluating what kind of Gil Meche we’re likely to see in August and September, the last month should make you more optimistic, not less so, and there’s no reason to be piling off the bandwagon right now.
I’ll repeat what I said three weeks ago; Gil Meche is clearly not an ace or any kind of frontline pitcher, I don’t want to give him a mulitiyear contract in the offseason, but I’m also glad they didn’t trade him, because the 8% BB/20% K flyball pitcher in Safeco Field is an effective starter who can help this team try to win the division. He’s going to give up some home runs, but that’s just part of the package.
If we see Gil Meche for what is right now, and not what we want him to be or what he used to be, we’ll realize that we have a #4 starter who is having the best run of his career in the year we need it the most. Not trading Gil Meche was the right move, just like letting him walk at the end of the year will be the right move. And last night’s suckfest doesn’t change any of that.
July in Review (and then some)
Record: 11-13
Overall: 52-53, 3.5 games back of Oakland
Hitting: .255/.308/.391 (AVG/OBP/SLG), 4.21 runs/game
Pitching: 119 runs allowed, 4.46 ERA
(Major) Roster Moves
In: CF Adam Jones, DH Eduardo Perez, DH Ben Broussard
Out: “DH†Carl Everett, DH Roberto Petagine, OF Jeremy Reed
The Good
People may harp on the M’s for failing to make a big splash at the trading deadline, but swapping out Carl Everett’s rotting carcass for the platoon tandem of Perez and Broussard is one of the best moves they could have made. This pair not only provides a great deal more offense, but strengthens the bench as well. It also means the horror flick “Carl Everett’s 2007 Option,†rated R for grotesque batting performance, will not be playing at a stadium near you.
The most surprising development of the month has to be the emergence of Mark Lowe as a dominant reliever. Despite not having pitched above AA, Lowe has been unflappable since he arrived, sporting an 11:3 K:BB ratio and no runs allowed in ten innings. Perhaps even more surprising is Mike Hargrove’s willingness to use Lowe in late-game, high-leverage situations despite the hurler’s lack of experience.
Ichiro! hit .317 for the month, posting a .384 OBP while stealing nine bases without being caught. Yuniesky Betancourt also had a big month, hitting .374 to push his season mark over .300 and getting on base at a .387 clip.
The Bad
After hitting a robust .287/.343/.497 in June, the offense as a whole fell off dramatically. Jose Lopez (.263/.322/.263) and Kenji Johjima (.250/.280/.361) in particular had very poor months.
Jeremy Reed’s wrist injury put the M’s in the unfortunate position of rushing prospect Adam Jones to the majors. While clearly talented, Jones has been overmatched at the plate and is still learning to play the position. Without a viable option on the roster, Willie Bloomquist was also given four starts in CF.
In the course of a year, Julio Mateo has gone from above-average reliever to long reliever to being a guy you don’t want to see in the game at almost any cost. And yet, Hargrove continues to use him late in close games at the expense of his more talented relievers. Mateo lost three games in July while allowing close to two runners per inning.
Injuries to Rafael Soriano and Chris Snelling have left us shaking our heads, wondering if these two players will ever live up to their potential in the major leagues.
The Ugly
After ending June with a bit of momentum and a 41-40 record, the M’s dropped six straight at home to Colorado, Anaheim, and Detroit, getting blanked once and scoring a lone run on three occasions. That slide put them back in a hole they then struggled to climb out of all month.
Gil Meche, Jamie Moyer, and Joel Pineiro combined to start 15 games, throw 85.2 innings, and post a 6.62 ERA with 21 homers allowed. Oddly, each pitcher allowed exactly 21 earned runs for the month.
Going Forward
The M’s have a better run differential than either Oakland or Texas, trailing only Anaheim, er, Los Angeles, in the division by that metric. They also trail in the actual standings, meaning there’s still work to be done.
Despite their history of second-half surges and current division lead, Oakland doesn’t scare me—they’re injury-prone up and down the lineup and are getting very little production outside of Nick Swisher and Frank Thomas (and the Big Hurt isn’t exactly the model of health). The rotation is good, but they’re still too reliant on the health of Rich Harden and the performance of Esteban Loaiza.
Texas helped itself in a big way with the acquisition of Carlos Lee, but was unable to bolster a thin starting rotation. Off-season acquisition Adam Eaton, who has missed the entire year with an injury, made his 2006 debut last week but subsequently missed his next start due to food poisoning. He could be a boost down the stretch, but it’s not as if his career is full of healthy and/or dominant seasons.
That brings us to the aforementioned Angels, who despite their early-season struggles are the class of the division. Their top-notch farm system has already contributed this year, with more help on the way if needed. Further, even without Bartolo Colon they have the best rotation in the division, a rotation which should be strong enough to cover for their supposedly weak offense… an offense which has scored more runs, incidentally, than either Seattle’s or Oakland’s.
Game 105, Mariners at Orioles
Game 1: Can the M’s beat the Orioles?
Game 2: Can the site hold up?
4:05, FSN.
Mariners:
RF-L Ichiro!
2B-R Lopez
3B-R Beltre
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
DH-R Perez
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
CF-R Jones
Pitching, Gil “The New and Improved” Meche
For Baltimore:
2B Roberts
LF-L Fahey
3B-R Mora
SS-R Tejada
DH-L Gibbons
1B-R Conine
CF-L Patterson
C-R Hernandez
RF-L Markakis
and pitching, Adam Loewen.
Q13 in Review
Hey all,
Well, what a roller-coaster ride that trade deadline day was for the Mariners! As it turns out, Jason’s show-opening prediction (“I don’t see them doing much of anything”) bore itself out.
To boost my post-per-TV-appearance ratio, which is close to 1:1 these days, I figured I’d bust out a behind-the-scenes recap of what I thought went well at Q13 and what I thought could’ve gone better.
PRO
Didn’t use any profanity, ducking FCC violations
CON
Didn’t work in a reference to Nietzsche’s notion of eternal recurrence, losing a $10 bet for a friend
PRO
Called for Hargrove to be fired, called (indirectly) for Carl Everett to be euthanized
CON
Everett could catch on with Bellingham Bells. May then have to change appearance, check windows before leaving house, could end up with Barbaro’s head in bed
PRO
Got to see Derek dressed in his smooth suit
CON
No cosmetic artists on hand to make up Derek; digital camera/blackmail opportunity lost
PRO
Talked with Adrian Hanauer, the very nice G.M. of the Seattle Sounders, backstage in the green room
CON
After I mentioned how much I got into the World Cup this year, Vinnie pontificated on how boring soccer is (“I’m used to it,” said Hanauer)
PRO
Saw Q13’s spacious men’s bathroom, which actually has a sizable shower facility attached to it
CON
Now Derek wants to spend all the site contributions on a shower-centric interview facility for USS Mariner labs (Kidding; he already squandered the proceeds on that new tie)
PRO
Had great food and drinks at the Tap House (thanks, Dan)
CON
Had to drive back to Bellingham, so couldn’t safely quench prodigious thirst. Another time.
In all seriousness, we had a great time, and everyone at Q13 was super-nice. Hopefully we’ll get to do it again sometime. Also, I’m being real about ramping up my posting schedule, both here and at my new personal blog, which I’ll fire up tomorrow. It’s going to be an Aug. 1, 2006-Aug. 1, 2007 chronicle of my time in Okinawa. Check it out if you’re so inclined.
Today’s outages
You may have noticed we’ve been up and down for a while, despite having a new box and having pushed out another back-end change to reduce server load.
I’m not sure, frankly, that there’s anything that could be done to survive today.
I don’t know what happens now. I’m working on it. If I seem a little depressed, well, yeah.
Deadline Day
The trade deadline has come and gone, and the M’s have made no moves. Which I’m totally fine with.
USSM on Fox “Game Thread”
Seeing as how I’m geographically challenged, I won’t be appearing on KCPQ 13 with Derek, Jeff, and Jason tonight, when they join New York Vinnie and Dan Devone at 10:30 on Q It Up Sports.
I know many of our readers won’t be able to view the program either, so, for those of us who won’t get the joy of watching this unique blend of characters interact for half an hour, here’s a thread for those of you who want to interject comments during the show.
And if you live in Seattle, you really, really want to watch this. The comedy potential is out of this world.
Update: Reader and all around good guy PositivePaul has put the video online for those who want to watch Dan Devone call us statheads 894 times.
Second Update: Now it’s on Youtube, so we’ll spare Paul’s server’s the wrath of USSM overload.