Cole Hamels
Tomorrow, the Philadelphia Phillies fans (this means you, Deanna) get their first look at their version of King Felix. He’s not quite as good, so perhaps they’ll call him Prince Cole. But he’s a pretty fun pitcher to watch in his own right.
So, while it doesn’t have anything to do with the M’s, really, I’ve decided to re-run an article I originally wrote for Baseball Prospectus almost three years ago. Cole Hamels debuts tomorrow, and he’ll finally get to show off that vicious, evil change-up that we’ve been raving about for years.
If you have a chance, watch him pitch tomorrow. You won’t regret it.
July 31, 2003
Prospecting
Cole Hamelsby David Cameron
Fourteen months ago, the Philadelphia Phillies selected Cole Hamels with the 17th pick in the first round, though he was rated between the seventh- and 12th-best prospect going into the draft. As a high school pitcher, he was already lumped into the high-risk category. The fractured humerus he suffered during an off-field incident his junior year didn’t help, as several teams refused to invest several million dollars in the health of his left arm. However, his injury was much less severe than the ones to Dave Dravecky and Tony Saunders, who snapped their humerus bones while pitching. Hamels suffered a small crack after colliding with a car mirror during a game of football, and was back on the mound for his senior year.
The Phillies cleared him with their team doctors, along with the ones who originally worked on Hamels’ arm, then signed him at the end of the summer for $2 million, the 13th-largest bonus given to anyone from last year’s class. His arm was not in game shape when he arrived for the Fall Instructional League, and he made his only appearance in the last game of camp. Due to his inexperience, the Phillies held him back in extended Spring Training for the first two months of 2003, in order to “let him get the teaching he would receive at a summer league,” according to Mike Arbuckle, the Phillies’ assistant general manager and director of player development.
He was worth the wait. Hamels’ stint in the South Atlantic League was one of the most impressive performances the minor leagues have seen since Rick Ankiel opened eyes in 1998. What Cole Hamels accomplished in his first 13 trips to the mound as a professional ballplayer is simply astounding.
Starts Innings Hits Home Runs Walks Strikeouts ERA
13 74 2/3 32 0 25 115 0.84He faced 268 batters and retired all but 60 of them. No less than 43% of the plate appearances by opposing hitters ended with the umpire yelling strike three. His rate of 13.86 strikeouts-per-nine-innings is a remarkable 95% above the league average and the best of any full-season starter in the game. There’s no question that Hamels earned his promotion to the Florida State League.
How does his run compare to other dominating performances in recent history? Below is a list of pitchers who threw a minimum of 100 innings with a strikeout rate at least 60% above league average in the past 10 years:
Name Year Level Age Innings K/9 Ratio ERA
Ryan Anderson 2000 Triple-A 20 104 12.6 89% 3.98
A.J. Burnett 1998 Low-A 21 119 14.0 83% 1.98
Nick Neugebauer 2001 Double-A 20 106.2 14.9 69% 3.46
Rick Ankiel 1998 High-A 18 126 18.1 67% 2.79
Brad Pennington 1998 Triple-A 29 100 12.5 66% 4.86
Joel Bennett 1997 Double-A 27 113.1 14.6 66% 3.18
Ben Howard 2000 High-A 21 107.1 15.0 64% 6.37
Mo Sanford 1994 Triple-A 28 125.2 14.1 63% 5.15
Tim Redding 1999 Low-A 21 105 14.1 61% 4.97
Ryan Anderson 1998 Low-A 18 111.1 15.2 60% 3.23Sanford, Bennett, and Pennington were minor league veterans, so we won’t bother with them for this comparison. That leaves six pitching prospects who have dominated the league strikeout totals like few before them or since. There are two similarities between the six that stand out above the rest; velocity and injury. Anderson, Burnett, Ankiel, Neugebauer, and Howard consistently threw in the high 90s before their arms fell apart. Redding was the softy of the group, regularly clocking at “only” 95. Perhaps not coincidentally, each member of the group has missed at least one full season due to injuries, as Redding has been the only member to succeed in the major leagues. The dangers of betting the farm on young pitchers’ arms has been well noted, and the above list reminds us that Hamels still has to avoid the doctor in order to live up to his promise. We’ll leave the medical analysis to Will Carroll, however, and get back to the subject at hand.
Hamels’ work in the South Atlantic League outshines all of them. He not only posted the best strikeout rate relative to league average, but his ERA’s in a class by itself as well. More impressive than his performance, though, is how he has attained such lofty heights. Hamels does not possess the extraordinary velocity or intimidation of his predecessors, but has surpassed their accomplishments with a different means of domination.
Hamels is listed at 6’3″ and 175 pounds and he looks every bit the 19-year-old kid that he is. That is, until he steps on the mound. His mechanics are good by major league standards and nearly unheard of for a pitcher with his experience. He drives with his legs, has a clean arm action, and repeats his delivery well. “We don’t feel the need to change his delivery at all,” Arbuckle told me.
Hamels spent most of Friday night pitching between 87-90 with his fastball. He has enough movement to make it a solid pitch, but he won’t rack up a lot of strikeouts with it. Occasionally, he would hit 92 when he got it up in the zone and put a little extra effort into the pitch. As he adds some muscle to his legs, he may be able to add a few miles per hour to his fastball, though he’ll likely always pitch in the low 90s.
Hamels’ slow curveball is an out pitch with good break that also tails away from left-handers. He threw it regularly between 76-78 and kept it down in the strike zone most of the game. He hung a couple up in the zone, but Greensboro’s offense failed to take advantage. He spins the ball well and does not telegraph his curve, but simply needs to locate it more consistently.
His combination of fastball and curve would make him an interesting prospect, but there is a sizeable list of pitchers who could match his stuff on those two pitches alone. It is his change-up that sets him apart and makes him one of the premier southpaws in the game. If you put Hamels on the Phillies right now, he’d have the best change-up on the team. It would be a struggle for me to name 10 major league pitchers who have a better one. His change-up is easily the best off-speed pitch I have seen this year. His arm speed is nearly identical to his fastball, making it impossible to pick up before the ball leaves his hand. He gets great fade on the pitch, making it equally tough on right-handed batters. When he threw it at the lower end of his 77-80 range, he would get some additional sink on the ball, making it a groundball waiting to happen.
Hamels’ command of the strike zone is above average, but could still use some improvement. He isn’t a pure strike-throwing machine like Zack Greinke, but he will keep his walk totals at acceptable levels. The fact that he can induce a swing-and-a-miss with his change-up and still keep the ball in the strike zone is a definite plus. If the hitter won’t get himself out by swinging, the umpire will simply call strike three.
The other fundamentals that go into making a good pitcher are too difficult to analyze in one outing. But Arbuckle noted that “his pitchability, work ethic, and make-up are all plus tools as well. We’re going to send him to the Florida State League to give him a challenge for the rest of the year.” While management will almost always say good things about the club’s own players, the Phillies are backing up their comments with Hamels’ promotion to Clearwater.
History hasn’t been kind to high school pitchers selected in the first round. The standard caveats of risk still apply, though Hamels’ mechanics should alleviate some of the concern about his future health. While the risk is high, the reward with Hamels is higher. It is clear that the Phillies are impressed with their young southpaw, and after watching Cole Hamels in person, so am I.
Doyle day recap, balk wins game
TNT on the return, including this sad bit:
Snelling has heard wide-ranging advice in his attempt to bounce back from another serious injury, mainly suggestions about altering his headlong approach to playing.
“For me, holding back, it’s tough to do,†Snelling said. “But I have to do it. I’m getting hurt for a reason.â€Â
Yes, but the reason is that the universe is a harsh and cruel place where no hope can survive for long. For a lesser example, the Mariners lost 1-0 on a balk (which David Andriesen examines at the PI) in a game where Moyer went eight innings, struck out five, and didn’t walk anyone. Good job, offense.
Sexson and Everett will use pink bats on Sunday (Times,
Carl Everett bails Moore out, in a way:
Lawton has never played with Bonds and wouldn’t say whether he was pulling for him or not, which could only mean that this was yet another Go 2 Guy column idea destined for the waste. Then Carl Everett showed up.
Even Moore knows his columns are garbage? Wow. That’s a remarkable leap of self-awareness for someone who refers to himself in the third person.
Also in the PI, a column on Lopez achieves almost Steve Kelley levels of padding. The PI Notebook has some interesting tidbits, like this Hargrove quote
“There’s a lot of baseball to be played. Where this team is going to settle in, we’re still determining that. That’s why I said at least three weeks ago that it’s usually 40-50 games into the season before you can start making predictions about what’s going on and start projecting things. It’s still early in the season. It doesn’t feel like it’s early, but it is early.”
40, 50 games, huh? I guess we’ll talk to you again in a week, if you’re still around.
Doyle Day
2-4, 1 BB, including the game-winning single in the bottom of the 10th, and that’s probably only a single because they only needed that one run to score so it should be 2-4, 1 BB, 1 2B. Welcome back, favorite player.
In celebration of the return of the prodigal prospect —
Thiel mixes quality Doyle quotes with some pretty horrible analogies.
Other papers carried the story of him taking some hacks at Safeco. May he be there playing soon.
Game 36, Devil Rays at Mariners
Bust out the brooms. Or not. Scott Kazmir vs Jamie Moyer.
Bloomquist in center, Rivera catching. But hey, Lopez is still hitting 2nd, where we can put his near .500 SLG to more use by bunting some more.
Game Thread – Doyle’s Return
Morning game for the Rainiers, and as we mentioned last night, Doyle is back. So, to enjoy the festivities, have a minor league game thread.
Also, for those who aren’t aware, milb.com is offering pitch-by-pitch gameday action, in case you aren’t able to listen to Mike Curto broadcast the game.
On May 10th, I Praise Kenji Johjima
He came to Seattle from Japan. He filled an important gap. In a year where the Mariners have seen two kinds of holes — ones in the lineup, and ones down which promising careers have fallen — it’s nice to see a player cover over a void rather than create one.
Apropos of this, I think it’s time to revisit the issue of Kenji Johjima. We have always endorsed the signing, but with little save the weather going right these days, it might be fun to focus energy on the positive.
Perhaps this will, at the very least, put to rest the constant accusations of anti-homerism we get around here.
Potentially, we will remember Johjima as Bill Bavasi’s best all-around free agent signing. He’ll turn 30 next month, is signed to a reasonable deal, and plays a demanding position where talent is scarce. What’s not to like?
You recall his Seattle beginnings: two games, two home runs. The power numbers haven’t kept up that pace, certainly, but Johjima’s brought sock to a position that has been a consistent black hole for the Mariners. And his memorable first impression stuck with people.
30 days later, Joe had become a fan favorite. There are good reasons for this.
Kenji has put to rest many concerns, be they about his bat or the way he would communicate with pitchers. Misgivings about the offense he’d provide have been proven quickly proven unfounded.
At the last USSM Feed, I suggested that we’d be happy if Johjima gave us numbers comparable to Tadahito Iguchi‘s. “Ecstatic,” Derek quickly added. Given where Johjima is at this point in the season compared to where Iguchi was in his first year — and factoring in park effects, too, since Safeco’s a much tougher place to hit — the meter has to be edging closer toward ecstatic each day. [And by the way, why does Iguchi get a comically intricate pronunciation guide from ESPN, but Johjima gets “N/A”?]
Right now, it’s difficult to find cause for optimism. The team’s power hitters are hitting like arthritic pygmy marmosets and the ousted closer couldn’t get tough stains out.
It’s in Kenji Johjima, and Jose Lopez, and yes, in King Felix. It’s there, optimism, even if you have to look harder than you’d like. The same way you might, for example, look for a hidden meaning in the beginnings of 10 paragraphs.
Doyle Returns
For those wondering how the young Aussie’s been doing, he’s starting his rehab stint with the Tacoma Rainiers tomorrow. Welcome back, Chris.
Game 35, Devil Rays at Mariners
RHP Doug Waechter v RHP Felix Hernandez. 7:05 on FSN.
Soooooooooooo… Felix. Could you please bring your velocity and control today? I don’t want to make a big deal out of this, but you’ve really been worrying us lately. You’re flying all over the place, your pitches aren’t where they should be… what’s the scoop? Was it Chicago? Was it us? We can change.
Until lineups are posted, I can only wonder: do we get Lawton again?
And what’s the worst plausible outfield the Mariners could field? I’m thinking Ichiro takes a half-day off DHing, and it’s LF-Ibanez, CF-Bloomquist, RF-Lawton. If Ibanez has to play 1B, you could even get an Everett/Bloomquist/Lawton outfield (or heck, sit Bloomquist and go Everett/Lawton/Ibanez).
Attendance down, dog bites man
The headline is perhaps a little dire: It’s Official: The Wheels Are Off In Seattle but here’s a short summary from Maury Brown, who’s (among other things) the co-chair of SABR’s Business of Baseball committee. Short version: yow.
Also today: the Answer Guy in the PI on the team’s “mental skills coach” plus Jason Churchill’s got a farm report on some of the system’s pitching talent.
Fallout from Everett slagging the team’s offense: Hargrove has a meeting with the hitters! The article manages to get in this subtle jab:
Hargrove is a proponent of a set lineup, but the one he’s gone with is on pace to score fewer runs than any Seattle team in a decade and a half.
Hee hee hee. It also says on the Lawton release issue that now they’re saying didn’t actually ask for a release so much as ask to be moved for an infielder who might help the team, which uh… I don’t think you can trade him yet anyway. But Matt’s happy watching hits drop around him in the outfield now, so that’s good.
There are worse beers
Reader Chris sent us a heads-up on this. Go to this page for Northern League transactions. Scroll down to 5/1:
Assigned the contract of RHP Nigel Thatch (Rookie) to Fullerton of the Golden Baseball League in exchange for 1 pallet (60 cases) of Budweiser beer.
I wonder which M’s players we could get a pallet of beer for.