Game 145, Mariners at Rangers – There’s Always Next Year
Marco Gonzales vs. Miguel Gonzalez, 5:05pm
Whoa, wait, Miguel Gonzalez is on the Rangers now? He’s made one start for the club, which is to be expected as he pitched – for the White Sox – on the waiver trade deadline of August 31st. The Rangers, like a few other teams, probably had to rethink things during August as they stumbled back into the race for the 2nd wildcard after dealing ace Yu Darvish to the Rangers.
Gonzalez is still the same fly-balling righty we got to know from his days with the Orioles – he still throws a rising four-seam fastball at 91-92, doesn’t miss a ton of bats, and gives up a fair number of home runs as a result. It’s somewhat odd that he’s been so consistent in ground ball rate after developing a sinker and throwing it much more than he used to. Despite that new pitch, his GB% is still within a percentage point of his career average. His HRs-allowed are more volatile, of course, but given his fly-balling ways, he’s managed to run a low BABIP and thus post better ERA’s than his FIP would predict.
This is essentially what we’d like to see out of Andrew Moore, and Moore showed some encouraging signs last night. He had 7 strikeouts, and *all* of them came on fastballs. Moore’s got even more rise on his fastball than Gonzalez, and that should help him get a couple more whiffs on the pitch. Of course, Gonzalez also has a decent slider and a splitter, while Moore’s secondaries are still works in progress. His change-up looked better last night, and he certainly threw it often, but his fastball seems like his putaway pitch, which is unusual. Former Reds starter and current Dodger reliever Tony Cingrani struck out staggering numbers of minor league batters with a fastball that sat at 91 and that he threw over 80-90% of the time. It was remarkable, and it still pretty much is – he’s been in the majors full time (pretty much) since 2013, and he’s still a one-pitch, low-velo fastball guy. As impressive as that is, it’s not been a great career, and he obviously got bumped from the rotation along the way. His 2013 season is essentially what we’d all hope to see from Moore someday, while his 2014+15 seems more like Moore’s season line from this year. Moore’s fastball is an interesting one, and last night was his most successful usage of it yet. But it still got dinged for a home run, and thus Moore needs better secondaries. The change is the furthest along, and it’s great to see his growing confidence in it, but I’d love to see his slider improve. The curve – again, it kind of reminds me of Cingrani’s for its lack of vertical movement – may be a lost cause. Still, that performance will likely earn Moore another shot to start, just as Marco Gonzales’ great long relief game made tonight’s start possible.
It certainly didn’t hurt him in his last outing, but Gonzales seems to have a very different release point for his fastball than his change or breaking balls. Here’s his release point from the 2nd against Oakland:
There’s a big grouping of pitches represented by the black squares around 2′ to the first base side. Then, there’s a smudge of yellow and blue, over 2.5′ towards first. The change is the furthest away, and the fastball grouping is distinct; there’s zero overlap between fastball and non-fastball. Gonzales has always had somewhat distinct release points, but it looked more like a continuous blob as opposed to two distinct groups. Here’s a start of his from 2014:
So does this matter? I’m not sure how much, but you’d think it’s something hitters would pick up on. We’re talking a few inches here, so it’s not like it’s going to be as obvious to a hitter as it is in those tidy graphs, but hitters, hitting coaches, and other personnel using technology (apple watches!) get paid to turn observations into actionable information, so I bet at least some are taking advantage.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Alonso, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Gamel, LF
9: Heredia, CF
SP: Gonzales
Jarrod Dyson’s having surgery to repair a sports hernia, so he’s done for the year and may have just played his last game in an M’s uniform. That, coupled with last night’s loss, would certainly seem to put an end to this year’s playoff race. No, they’re not eliminated yet, but the drop from Dyson to Heredia defensively is pretty steep, and while the rotation’s looking better than it has in a while – particularly with Paxton/Felix ready to return on this road trip, there just isn’t enough time to track down the Twins/Angels. Assuming Dyson goes elsewhere, the M’s have some shopping to do in the offseason to build another contending team. They’ll need a 1B, as Alonso/Valencia can walk, and they may need another true CF. Would Dyson take a cheap extension to stay, given that his value may be hurt by the way his 2017 season ended? Either way, the M’s will probably be buyers as they can fairly easily contend for the wild card next year in Cruz’s final year in Seattle. It gets more interesting after that, when the M’s either need to have developed more star-caliber players (Kyle Lewis?) or they’ll need to spend even more in free agency. The make up of the club and contracts make it a pretty easy decision to essentially stay the course for 2018, but 2019 could look very different.
Game 144, Mariners at Rangers – Org Churn
Ariel Miranda vs. Cole Hamels, 5:05pm
It’s pretty simple: the M’s currently sit in 4th place in the AL West, and to have any shot at the 2nd wildcard, they need to finish 2nd. They just took a series from the Angels, the team currently occupying 2nd place, but they remain 2 games behind them. Today, they begin a series against Texas, the team currently in 3rd, and just a half game ahead of the M’s. The M’s need to win the series, because time’s running out and they really need to start passing some teams. The fact that the 2nd wildcard is still pretty open is great, and being within a handful of games mattered how the M’s viewed their playoff odds and their club in general a month or two ago. Now, it’s not enough. There just aren’t enough games left.
Today the M’s activated pitcher Ryan Weber from the 60-day DL and outrighted him to Tacoma. This is what the M’s did with Christian Bergman on the 1st of the month, and it essentially means Weber’s tenure in the org is over. They picked Weber up on a waiver claim from the Braves, as he seemed to offer decent depth, given his experience both as a starter and a reliever. Weber didn’t disappoint; after an outing or two as a reliever, he moved into the Rainiers rotation in mid-April and proceeded to absolutely dominate, running an ERA of 0.85 over 31+ innings, which earned him a call-up in May. He blew his arm out 3 innings into his M’s career, and has been on the DL until today. I bring it up because that means that 4 of the Rainiers’ primary April starters have been DFAd – Weber, Sam Gaviglio, Christian Bergman, and Chris Heston. The other two, Chase de Jong and Dylan Unsworth ended up demoted to AA, and only de Jong is on the 40-man. Of the Rainiers 9 opening day relievers, only Emilio Pagan and Tony Zych are still in the org, and Zych was only in Tacoma on a rehab assignment. The sheer number of DFAs, waiver claims and minor league transactions this year has been staggering, and while some of that comes with the territory, the degree of attrition and replacement this year feels well nigh unprecedented. The Rainiers used 54 pitchers this year. Texas’ club used fewer than 40. Beyond the churn, though, I think I have *less* of a sense of how to prioritize the club’s pitching depth. This wasn’t throwing a bunch of prospect spaghetti at the wall and seeing who sticks. This was throwing minor league free agents at the wall, and even if they stuck, those guys can just go elsewhere. The M’s *had* to rely on minor league vets because they didn’t have a ton of homegrown players. Now, having sent off pretty much every remaining M’s-drafted player, it’s not clear where they go from here. They’re going to need to do it again next year just to fill out rosters, so get ready for the M’s to be active on the waiver wire and in minor league free agency. That’s…fine, I guess, but there’s no way to spin this season as anything but a failure in terms of pitching development overall.
There have been so many stunning stat lines this year from guys with essentially zero power who’ve knocked a bunch of home runs and pushed their SLG% way up. Jake Marisnick, Chris Taylor, the list goes on. We saw Elvis Andrus run an ISO far beyond his career averages last year, but you still wouldn’t call him a slugger or anything – he slashed .302/.362/.439, which is a very good season for an up-the-middle defender, and he posted his career high in HRs with 8. So, this year, he’s slashing .306/.348/.497. He’s sitting on 20 HRs and counting, and could tip over the .500 mark in SLG% by the end of this series (or game). He went from a bad hitter, to someone posting Jean Segura-in-2017 last year, and now he’s posting Segura’s 2016 slash line. It’s remarkable, and it’s remarkably frustrating as an M’s fan. Andrus in 2015 hit .257/.309/.357, and in a few years is within a few percent of Kyle Seager’s *best* batting season.
Cole Hamels had a velocity spike from about 2014-16, where he went from 92 on his fastball to nearly 94, but that seems to have run its course now. He’s back at 92, so the big change from his heyday with the Phillies is that he’s now throwing a sinker a lot more. His usage has gone from about 5% to over 20% these days, so while he’s still known mostly for his change and to a lesser extent his cutter, he’s got two different fastballs that he features pretty often. Lefties see the pitch a lot more, and it’s been effective against them. His change is still quite good, but he’s run normal platoon splits for several years. They’re even for his career, but righties have hit him a bit better than lefties over the past 3-5 years, as you’d expect.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Heredia, CF
9: Gamel, LF
SP: Miranda
Modesto finished off Stockton to sweep their first round series in the California League playoffs, so they’ll kick off the championship series against Lancaster on Tuesday. Lancaster’s the Astros affiliate, and they’re led by Cal League batting champ Yonathan Daza, who hit .341/.376/.466 on the year and went 10-18 in their playoff series win over Rancho Cucamonga.
Game 142, Angels at Mariners
Andrew Albers vs. Andrew Heaney, 6:10pm
Andrew Heaney, acquired in exchange for Howie Kendrick, had a great 2015 with the Angels. In 18 starts, he struck out fewer batters than average, but his great control and a low HR rate to a very good FIP and ERA.
Times change, though. After suffering a UCL tear, he rehabbed after TJ surgery and is now healthy again; he’s made four starts with the Angels. Four completely unrecognizable starts. Unlike 2015, he’s now striking out well more than a batter an inning. And the home runs…ohhhh, the HRs. In 4 starts totaling less than 20 IP, Heaney’s given up an astounding 11 dingers.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Heredia, CF
8: Ruiz, C
9: Motter, LF
SP: Albers
So Modesto
Game 141, Angels at Mariners
Mike Leake vs. Ricky Nolasco, 7:10pm
Time is growing short, and the number of teams the M’s need to hurdle is long. They’ve got to play nearly perfect baseball from here on out, and they still don’t have Felix or Paxton back yet. Stabilizing the rotation was why the M’s picked up Mike Leake, and to his credit, he was far better than advertised in his first game out, striking out 7 Oakland A’s in a convincing win. The M’s are going to need more of the same, and having another such performance against a much better opponent – like the Angels – would go a long way towards extending Seattle’s 2017 hopes and building some optimism for 2018.
Leake’s velocity dip in the second half this year was a worrying sign, especially as it coincided with a drop in Ks and overall effectiveness. Thus, it was great to see Leake’s velocity up noticeably in his first game in an M’s uniform. His sinker averaged 91+ and he touched 93. In his final start for St. Louis, he averaged 89+ and didn’t ever hit 92. He was 90-91 most of the second half, so it’s not like he’s suddenly throwing much harder, but it showed the declining trend was some kind of death sentence. He also threw more curveballs than in any start he’s made this year with the Cards; it’s a good pitch, and while he still threw more sliders, it’s nice to see that he’s got another pitch to keep hitters off of his sinker/slider combo. I’d say I hope we see more of the curve tonight, but by pitch type linear weights, the Angels struggle more with sliders, so if he wants to throw a bunch of those, be my guest.
I get something out of writing this blog, and there are times I can easily come up with reasons I spew words about pitching match ups every day, and the patterns of thought it engenders. Then I mentally tally the sheer volume of words I’ve written about Ricky Nolasco, and kind of want to quit. Why must the M’s face Ricky Nolasco so often? Can’t he turn interesting, the way Doug Fister has, or any number of other pitchers who either come back from near baseball death or transform themselves completely? No? Ok, Ricky Nolasco throws two fastballs around 91, has a decent-looking splitter, and a slider. He was once a decent starter, but settled in as a mediocre, near-replacement level arm after signing a contract with the Twins. He was traded for fellow HR-prone pitcher Hector Santiago, and both he and Santiago have continued to be mediocre, homer-prone starters in new cities.
1: Segura, SS
2: Alonso, 1B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Zunino, C
8: Gamel, LF
9: Heredia, CF
SP: Leake
The Modesto Nuts are the one M’s affiliate in their league’s playoffs, and they’re off to a great start. They got a HR from Kyle Lewis in an 11-5 drubbing of Stockton yesterday and now have a 2-0 lead in the best of 5 series. They go for the series win tonight behind Robert Dugger, who was dominant for Clinton but struggled a bit in his first taste of the offense-friendly Cal League.
Walking Into an Ambush
The 2016 season’s finished, and you and a group of M’s baseball ops staffers are talking about how to change direction for 2017. The Mariners allowed a ton of HRs, and Safeco – the impregnable, right-handed-power-destroying citadel – had seen the most HRs hit of any park in the game. Given your financial and minor league talent constraints, acquiring elite talent through free agency (not that this was on offer, really) or trade wasn’t likely. “What does the data say?” someone asks, and heads turn in your direction.
Let’s do this, you say to yourself, and gulp some water. You’ve brought slides. Sweet, irrefutable trend analysis. The HR revolution is real, but it is highly localized. Run scoring is increasingly due to HRs, and more and more HRs are being hit. But HR rates at the top of the zone are unchanged. The HR revolution or air-ball revolution or whatever you want to call it is a phenomenon restricted to the bottom of the zone.
HRs and HR/P 2013-16
Here’s the total number of HRs hit on high pitches, where high is defined as at least 6″ above the center of the zone. The absolute number of HRs hit on pitches in this zone has dropped, and while the rate of HRs per pitch is fairly high, it’s not rising, and is actually a bit below rates from 2013, a low-run-scoring season. Compare that to the trend for *low* pitches. Here, in a single chart, is the story of the HR glut in baseball:
HRs and HR/P 2013-16
The absolute number of HRs hit on pitches 6″ *below* the center of the zone starts off far lower than the high pitches, but it blows past the high pitches in 2015, and it keeps growing. On a per-pitch basis, the rate’s now approaching the same rate as the high pitches, and remember there are far, far more pitches thrown in the low zone; in 2016, two pitches came in the low zone for every one pitch in the high zone. If that’s too broad, we’ve re-done the analysis using Statcast’s new detailed zones and eliminated wide pitches. If anything, the results are even more stark. HR/P in the lowest zones increased markedly between 2015 and 2016. The data are clear: if you want to avoid HRs, and remember that avoiding HRs means avoiding runs-allowed, you need to target pitchers who pitch up in the zone. Batters have gone all-in on the low pitch, and their swings are tailored to damage these pitches specifically. Pitch up, and you gain increase whiffs and decreased batting average against, while the big drawback of pitching up – namely, a much higher SLG%-against- isn’t really there anymore. You should look at guys like Drew Smyly, and we definitely need to get the message to Felix.
I’ll be honest, there’s a potential problem. If something meteorological or otherwise has happened and Safeco is now an especially EASY park to homer in instead of an incredibly difficult one, then this could backfire. But that’s crazy, right? It’s still at sea level, right by Puget Sound and that thick marine layer. Yes, HRs spiked there in 2016, but all the statcast park factors say it’s a pitcher’s park. It’s a risk, but it’s not a crippling one. Oh, almost forgot: to really maximize the value of Safeco and pitching up, we need a really athletic, Kansas City Royals-style outfield. BABIP-against is going to be pathetically low, and that can mean that even if injuries happen, our depth guys will look better than their raw stuff or FIP would predict.
:2017 Season happens:
Sssoo, I got your e-mail, and yes, I’ve updated the charts I shared back in January with 2017 data. I…I don’t know..there are many possible..what? Right, right, yes sir. Uh, high pitches:
Ooops
Yes, the giant leap in 2017 does rather catch one’s eye. Ok, low pitches now:
OOps
Sooo, the bit about the HR revolution being localized may, and I stress that this is all preliminary and that we need much more data, MAY have been overstated. Perhaps. It would…appear, that batters are now better at elevating and punishing pitches of all types, but that in 2017, they’ve done the most damage on, uh, pitches that are thrown, um, rather higher. It’s the damndest thing.
I said that the risk was that Safeco became truly HR-friendly, and while it’s seen a ton of HRs, I’d like to point out for posterity that our pitchers have given up far more HRs on the road. Safeco hasn’t been the issue. I would also like to point out that our ERA really is better than our FIP, and that Jarrod Dyson and company can really go get it, and it is amazing to watch. Bloggers who worried about there not being enough fly balls in play have been thoroughly shamed, as I suspected. Ha! What’s that? Our team fWAR from pitchers? Yes, 7.5, 25th in the league. There’s clearly room for improvement. Our HR/9 ranks 28th, and no, I didn’t see that coming; very sorry, sir. I really, really thought we had this whole fly-ball revolution thing sussed. Won’t happen again; I’m already for looking for new trends, and hoping they are much longer lived, sir.
————————————
I’ve been frustrated with the M’s this year, and their lack of consistent pitching that goes far beyond the injuries they’ve suffered. Sam Gaviglio just pitched a gem for the Royals as I wrote this, while the M’s struggled to get anything from higher-tier prospects and trade targets. The key has been the HR ball; the M’s have given up way too many, and it’s killed their playoff hopes. I sometimes find myself damning the front office for this, or for failing to really understand what was going on in baseball generally and at Safeco in particular: you couldn’t count on running a low HR/FB ratio, not in 2017 anyway. Great strategy for 2010, Jerry. From what I’ve heard of his talk at LL night, Dipoto seemed to admit as much.
But the more I’ve thought about it, the more I would’ve said the exact same thing as the unfortunate baseball-ops intern in the hypothetical above. Hell, I *did* say as much in that post about Felix. This really did seem like a change in how batters attacked pitches in a specific location. And then this year, all of the sudden, it wasn’t. Jeff has a post today about baseball moving away from the sinker, and a correlated fact came through in my research: pitchers are throwing fewer low pitches this year. It makes some sense, as the strike zone’s no longer expanding to the south, and as more and more have become aware of hitters’ increasing propensity to turn low pitches into souvenirs. I have no real explanation for their sudden increased ability to swat high pitches for HRs; it’s come much too late to have anything to do with the ball, which seems to have changed earlier on. And the ball itself wouldn’t explain the DROP in HR/pitch on low pitches from 2016 to 2017. This is a shift in where batters are doing damage, a reversal of a similar (inverse) shift a few years ago.
I have no idea why this is happening, or if it’ll continue next year. What I can say is that I understand the motivation behind the M’s offseason a bit more, and I have to admit that my own writing and surmising would’ve been supportive. There was no real clear sign of danger, beyond the traditional “the HR/pitch rate is high up in the zone.” This may be the result of the human tendency to find patterns in random variation, and it may be the result of a shift in batting instruction. Whatever the cause, the M’s identified what they saw as a potential improvement, and they implemented it well. I’ve been extremely critical of this FO’s ability to implement its own plans, but credit where it’s due: they set out to increase fly balls and improve OF defense, and they have absolutely done that. But they had no idea that they were walking into an ambush – that baseball would see a spike in HR/FB just as they successfully developed a fly ball staff. No one ever said being a GM was fair, but…damn. Tough break, Jerry.
Game 140, Astros at Mariners
Andrew Moore vs. Lance McCullers, 7:10pm
A day after getting to face Justin Verlander in his first start in an Astros uniform, the M’s have the honor of welcoming Lance McCullers back to the majors to make his first start in over a month. After spending the first half of the season as one of the league’s premier starters, McCullers struggled mightily in July, and then, after giving up 5 runs in 5 IP, he went on the DL with back issues. This isn’t new for McCullers, who’s essentially a more southerly James Paxton: dominant when healthy, but frequently unhealthy. That DL stint that cost him August was his 2nd of the season, and he’s missed tons of time in previous seasons as well. Paxton and McCullers have pitched an eerily similar number of innings over the past 3 years, 307+ to 312+.
Sooo, Andrew Moore. The M’s announced he was coming up to bolster the bullpen, but after using Marco Gonzales in long relief the other day, Moore will get another opportunity to start. With so many of the M’s depth options, I’ve advocated using the Yankee (and Astros!) strategy of throwing a blizzard of breaking balls to maximize effectiveness. McCullers throws his slurvy curveball more than any of his pitches at over 40%, for example. Well, Moore should not do that. He’s given up 5 dingers on his rising four-seam fastball, but it’s been a decent pitch overall. Not great, mind you, but not disastrous, which is the only way to describe what’s happened when he’s thrown other pitches. His whiff rate is better on his straight four-seam fastball than it is on his curve, which simply doesn’t generate enough break. His slider and change are a bit better at generating whiffs, but batters have put more of them in play, and they’ve put more of them in the air (the change especially). It’d be nice to see if he can modify his usage of the change to get more below-the-zone swings on it.
1: Segura, SS
2: Alonso, 1B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Gamel, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: Moore
Ariel Miranda was effectively wild last night, walking 6 in 6 innings, but holding the Astros hitless through 6 before giving up a decisive 2-run HR in the 7th. That’s his second game this year where he’s walked 6, and it marks his 5th start giving up *at least* 4 walks. But in those 5 starts, covering 26 2/3 IP, he’s given up a total of just 2 home runs. By contrast, he’s given up zero walks in 4 starts, covering a total of 20 innings. And in *those* games, he’s given up 9 dingers, or 4.05 HR/9. His HR/9 in the high-walk games is a very un-Miranda-like 0.7.
Shawn O’Malley was DFA’d in the series of moves that enabled Rainiers IF and ex-White Sox player Gordon Beckham to earn a 40-man spot and a place on the M’s bench. O’Malley made it through waivers and was outrighted to Tacoma, whose season is over. Hmmm. “Shawn, please report to Tacoma…and when I say “Tacoma,” I mean “anywhere but here.” See you next year, possibly.”
Fangraphs’ David Laurila had a post talking about M’s relief prospect JP Sears, the guy with the incredible K rate stats in Everett and Clinton; it’s worth a read.
Speaking of Fangraphs, their playoff odds now give the M’s just shy of a 5% chance. Darn. BP’s odds have been more bullish on the M’s chances this year, but no longer; their odds are fractionally lower than Fangraphs’ now.
Game 139, Astros at Mariners
Ariel Miranda vs. Justin Verlander, 7:10pm
It’s not enough that the M’s can’t really compete with the Astros, or that they enter play tonight 15.5 games back of Houston in the AL West standings. No, tonight the M’s get to play host to Justin Verlander, who makes his debut as a member of the Astros rotation. It’s a twist of the knife not to the M’s fans who wanted the M’s to get JV instead – I don’t think it would’ve been a great move, and I’m not sure the M’s could’ve swung it – but to the front office, to see a divisional rival setting up their rotation and bullpen for playoff series, not a bid to make the wild card game. It’s September, and the M’s are on the periphery of the playoff race, and I should be happier about that, but 1) they’re miles and miles away from the Astros/Indians, and 2) there is ash literally falling from the sky like snow in much of the Northwest and the world just seems more tenuous and fraught than ever.
Ariel Miranda’s the only Mariner to make each start in the rotation. Normally, you’d hate that a guy with a FIP of *5.60* is Mr. Durability for the year, but then you’ve seen some of the M’s 6th-12th starter options. This is Houston’s *5th* game against Miranda this year, but hopefully they’ve forgotten him, as it’s been about 6 weeks since last they met. Miranda desperately needs to keep the ball in the park, but that may be harder than normal given the high gametime temperature today – the ball flies further in warmer weather.
Ex-TB Ray Ryan Garton threw an inning the other day, and while another righty 6th inning guy isn’t too noteworthy, the movement on his pitches looks interesting. He throws a cutter-ish four-seam fastball that actually has gloveside break of about 1″, and the most truly “12-6” curve I’ve seen.
Today, the M’s have recalled 1B Dan Vogelbach, who had a solid 2nd half in Tacoma, and they’ve also activated newly-acquired OF Jacob Hannemann, whom they just picked up off of waivers from the Cubs. Hannemann is your classic speed/defense guy; he’s struggled at the plate in the minors, but his defense boosted him to the back end of the Cubs top 30 prospect lists. He’s swiped nearly 30 bags this year, so he could have some value as a pinch runner down the stretch. But wait, you say: this sounds an awful like the profile of the two high-minors CF prospects the Mariners already have, and who greased the skids for the DFA of Leonys Martin: Ian Miller’s in AAA Tacoma and is more of a 40-50 stolen base threat kind of guy. And Braden Bishop makes more contact and plays brilliant defense, and he’s waiting for the Arizona Fall League to start. All of this is true, so it’s a bit odd, but I think the plan must be to get Bishop more experience against high-minors arms before throwing him to the wolves. Bishop isn’t in the same league as a baserunner as Hannemann and Miller, as well. Miller would make the most sense, but then he’s had a rough go of things in the PCL after starting off with a 12-game hitting streak. His walk rate’s fallen and when his BABIP dropped, it killed his batting value. Still, all of these players are plagued by a dearth of power – Miller’s problem is the most acute, while Hannemann is the best bet to run an ISO north of .100 (a low bar, I know). The problem is that Hannemann’s also the best bet to post an ugly K rate. Bishop would seem like the best option from that point of view, so then things like the timing of adding players to the 40-man comes into it. We’ll have to see how this plays out in the offseason, and if Miller gets added to the rotation or if Hannemann acts as the last-in, first-out guy on the 40-man, and yields his place to the next waiver claim Dipoto makes. Bishop’s probably the guy who’s most clearly in the team’s longer term plans, but it can’t feel good to see the club get a player very much like you and have that guy instantly move to the active roster in Seattle.
1: Segura, SS
2: Alonso, 1B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Gamel, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: Miranda
Game 138, Astros at Mariners – Checking In On M’s Newest Pitchers
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Dallas Keuchel, 3:40pm
The M’s continue their homestand by hosting the first-place Astros. The Astros were in on several players at the deadline, and after failing to land any of them, made a big splash later in August by acquiring Justin Verlander and reliever Tyler Clippard, and then getting OF Cameron Maybin as well. Houston got off to a scorching start to the year, with Dallas Keuchel looking like he’d recaptured his Cy Young form from 2015, Lance McCullers was untouchable at times, and Chris Devenski was making a bid for a historic season out of the bullpen. Then things fell apart for a while: Keuchel hit the disabled list for a few months, McCullers was awful and then hit the DL (he hasn’t pitched in over a month, but he’ll be activated for this series), Devenski fell back to earth, and top prospect Francis Martes came up and struggled. It’s easy to say that the Astros depth saved them, as pitchers like Brad Peacock held the fort until the injured were ready to pitch again. But it’s worth noting that there was nothing spectacular about the depth that they’ve used: Brad Peacock’s preseason ZiPS projection was essentially identical to Christian Bergman’s, and worse than Max Povse’s. The story of the Astros’ rise isn’t just about high draft picks; Carlos Correa’s been great, but HE’S missed a bunch of time, too. Rather, it’s how much production they’ve squeezed out of the kinds of minor acquisitions that the M’s have made dozens of this year. Collin McHugh was a waiver claim. Peacock was a throw-in in a deal with the A’s. Jose Altuve was ignored by many because of his stature, Chris Devenski was a PTBNL, and Charlie Morton was signed to a two-year deal for a bit more than Marc Rzepczynski got. Their pro scouting group seems to know what it wants, and their player development staff seems to know how to turn those skills/attributes into MLB production. If I sound a bit jealous, I am.
The M’s seem to know what they want, but turning things like “fly balls, but not HRs” into on-the-ground production is hard. I’m sympathetic to the argument that ground ball pitchers are now costlier to acquire, but then I see a guy like Erasmo Ramirez, whom the M’s acquired for very little and who IS an effective GB% hurler. And as soon as he came to Seattle, the M’s seem intent on reducing his GB ability. I talked about the uptick in his four-seam usage back in mid-August, but with that month complete, we have a better idea of what’s it’s done to his batted ball profile: August saw his second-highest fly ball rate of any month since 2014. If the M’s wanted him to avoid GBs, then I guess job well done and all, but then it seems odd to lament the fact that ground ball pitchers cost more than you can afford. Erasmo’s change-up movement looks a bit different too, and less likely to get either whiffs or grounders, but I will say that sequencing a four-seam and change seems better than just sinkers/change-ups; the movement on them is too similar, and Erasmo’s velocity difference isn’t big enough.
Speaking of recent acquisitions, the M’s finally got to see RP Shae Simmons make his M’s debut in yesterday’s win. Lookout Landing’s John Trupin had a great article/interview with him that posted today, and he notes that Simmons’ command isn’t quite back to normal after his injury woes. Simmons throws his fastball very hard, at 95-98, and sat at 96+ yesterday. It’s always been a very odd duck – not a sinker thanks to very little horizontal movement, but with sinker-like “rise”. In all, I’d call it most similar to a cutter, but it’s not a textbook cutter, either. Whatever you call it, with sinking action and plus velocity, it looks pretty good. He pairs it with a slider in the mid-low 80s, and with his low release point, it moves an awful lot like Carson Smith’s, a point Trupin notes. He used to throw a split-change that looks like a great complement to his fastball, but he didn’t throw it yesterday – instead, he debuted a NEW pitch – an actual cutter that comes in about 6-7 MPH slower than the fastball, and has less vertical drop than the true slider. Compared to where Simmons was when he debuted in 2014, his fastball was even straighter and with more rise, and his slider was slower with more horizontal run. He seemed to be releasing the ball a bit higher, which may account for the movement on his fastball, but we’ll have to see more of him to know for sure.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Heredia, CF
9: Motter, LF
SP: Erasmoooo
Today’s the final day of the MiLB season; it hasn’t been a great one overall for the M’s, but Modesto’s first half qualifies them for the Cal League playoffs. Tacoma ends up their campaign in Las Vegas today, while Arkansas hosts NW Arkansas (who I swear they’ve played roughly half their games against), Modesto hosts Visalia, while Clinton’s in Burlington. Modesto’s the only affiliate to end with a better-than-.500 record.
Fittingly for a post titled like this one, the M’s have added a new pitcher since I began writing today. They picked up RHP Seth Frankoff off waivers from the Cubs, along with OF Jacob Hanneman. David Phelps has been moved to the 60-day DL, ending his season, and Zac Curtis has been DFA’d.
Game 137, Athletics at Mariners – Why Don’t they make the Entire SEASON Out of A’s Games?
Andrew Albers vs. Daniel Gossett, 1:10pm
By all accounts, yesterday’s Lookout Landing Night was a success, and I hear Jerry Dipoto was a gracious and funny panelist. Nathan Bishop was on the panel, and said that this was his big takeaway from the night: “this FO’s plan was absolutely built on a pre-flyball revolution model, and they’re still scrambling because of it.” That explains a lot, and it’s something we’ve talked a lot about on the blog – the fact that Safeco became a much, much more HR-friendly ballpark and then the entire league context changed as well. I completely understand being blindsided by the late-2015 dinger explosion, or the 2016 Gotterdingerung, when Safeco saw the most HRs of any park in baseball. It’s slightly *less* understandable to be taken aback by all the homers your pitching staff gives up in 2017, when the team’s response to 2016 was to attempt to become even more fly ball oriented. You understand it from a BABIP point of view, and getting Jarrod Dyson was key to that. But it’s also hard to claim to be surprised stocking up on low-strikeout, high-fly-ball pitchers would lead to a bunch of HRs flying out of Safeco field. We all witnessed 2016; what’s happened this year didn’t come out of nowhere.
I understand that low-HR, high-K pitchers are universally valued and may cost more in talent and dollars than the M’s want to spend, but as Bishop says, they’re not exorbitant if you develop them yourself. Further, I think the most important thing in the forensic analysis of 2017 isn’t fighting over how much bad luck the M’s had (the Angels and Mets had it much worse). Instead, it’s figuring out why the pitchers the M’s targeted or developed haven’t fared as well as their projections would’ve predicted. Why was Gallardo bad? What happened to Andrew Moore? Or Marco Gonzales (last night’s long relief gem excepted)? Why have Paul Blackburn and a host of the prospects the M’s traded away flourished? Whether the M’s shift their pitching strategy or not in light of the HR revolution is irrelevant if they still have trouble implementing it.
Daniel Gossett’s a low-K, high-HR-allowed pitcher with excellent control coming through the A’s system, but who’s been beaten to a pulp by the American League. If this sounds like Dillon Overton, I completely agree. The A’s had a ton of these guys in the past few years, from Overton to Daniel Mengden to Chris Smith. They’ve all faceplanted in MLB after varying degrees of success in the PCL (Mengden in particular was great for Nashville, but he’s been the worst in MLB). I guess it’s nice to see that this phenomenon isn’t limited to Mariners prospects.
1: Segura, SS
2: Alonso, 1B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Gamel, LF
8: Heredia, CF
9: Ruiz, C
SP: Albers
Game 136, Athletics at Mariners – Roster Moves and Lookout Landing Night
Yovani Gallardo vs. Jharel Cotton, 6:10pm
As mentioned yesterday, the A’s offense hasn’t been too bad. They’re not great defensively, but they’ve hit the ball hard, and they’re doing it with a lot of homegrown young talent. The A’s are also 18 games under .500, which tells you something about their pitching staff. Sonny Gray was fine, but in a lost season, the A’s shipped him to New York to restock their farm system. Kendall Graveman started the year on fire, then got hurt and hasn’t been the same since. Andrew Triggs got off to a decent start, then needed hip surgery and was gone for the year. Jesse Hahn’s FIP is right where it was when he was an effective starter for Oakland back in 2015, but his ERA most certainly is not. Sean Manaea also started well, but, last night excepted, has been awful down the stretch. But perhaps the biggest difference between what was expected and what’s been delivered is in Jharel Cotton’s stat line.
Cotton came over in the Rich Hill trade from the Dodgers a year ago, a year after rising from the single-A Midwest League to the Pacific Coast League. Last year, the change-up specialist pitched well for Nashville after the trade, and then made 5 starts for Oakland that opened a lot of eyes. He walked just 4 in those 5 starts, and used his screwball-like change (it’s thrown at 78 MPH, the same as his curveball) to post very low BABIP rates. All of that led to a very good ERA, and while his FIP was higher (thanks to 4 HRs allowed), it wasn’t problematic. The A’s seemed to have acquired a useful middle of the rotation piece who’d be decent for years without commanding much in salary. So far, so Oakland. But instead, Cotton’s regressed in every possible way, with a FIP and ERA both well over 5. His K%’s down, and his walk rate’s soared, meaning his K-BB% has been nearly halved. His HR rate’s climbed even further, and he’s been especially bad with men on base.
His change-up’s still his best pitch, but it’s looking quite a bit worse this year. Batters had 1 single on the pitch in 2016, but they’ve knocked 9 XBHs off of it this year, and are slugging .462 on it. Perhaps worse, the A’s are doing what they seemingly always do, and are directing him to throw more sinkers and cutters. Those have come at the expense of his rising four-seam fastball at 93-94 and his change. There’s nothing wrong, theoretically, with using a cutter more against same-handed bats, but righties have hit well against it, and his sinker’s clearly still a work in progress. With a huge gap in vertical movement and velocity between his four-seam and change, Cotton seemed well positioned to either get whiffs or mis-hit contact. I get not wanting to show too much of the change and allow batters to sit on it, but Cotton’s far from the only Athletic who’s been given a pitch mix overhaul with questionable goals and results. It’s possible that the ultra-slow change was something of a trick pitch, and once batters learned to recognize it, they could feast on it. It’s possible that they’ve seen something in him that would make a sinker-heavy approach work well. But I’m suspicious.
1: Segura, SS
2: Alonso, 1B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Gamel, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, CF
SP: Gallardo
With Jarrod Dyson back and rosters expanding, the M’s have made a bunch of roster moves over the past 48 hours. Leonys Martin didn’t make it through waivers a second time, and he’s been acquired by the Cubs, who’ve already brought him up to Chicago. The M’s continual shuffling of pitchers has resulted in a lot of outright assignments, as Christian Bergman was just outrighted for at least the second time. The M’s also tried to slip Sam Gaviglio through waivers, but like Martin, he didn’t make it; he’s been acquired by Kansas City.
Tacoma’s season ends on Monday, so the M’s will probably call up a few more players on Tuesday, but for today, they’ve brought up C Mike Marjama and RP Ryan Garton, both picked up in a late summer trade with Tampa, SP Andrew Moore (who’ll work out of the pen for now), and RP Shae Simmons, the intriguing reliever they got from Atlanta in the offseason and who was shut down in spring training. David Phelps is on the 10-day DL with an impingement in his elbow, which, I have to say, sounds really bad given it’s his second arm injury of the second half of the season.
Before the game tonight, the M’s are hosting Lookout Landing night with the current staff of the venerable M’s blog along with some previous writers who’ve gone on to other gigs. Nathan Bishop now writes over at Dome and Bedlam, while Colin O’Keefe and Jose Rivera were picked up by the Mariners themselves. GM Jerry Dipoto’s doing a Q and A so go ask some tough questions!