Sirens and Sagan
In Carl Sagan’s sagacious tome The Demon-Haunted World, he bemoans “the siren song of unreason,” which humans follow to irrational conclusions about such matters as UFOs, fairies and the rally cap. Adherence to unreason, he says, is “not just a cultural wrong but a dangerous plunge into darkness that threatens our most basic freedoms.”
Mariner fans are as susceptible to unreason as anyone else, and more so in the case of Willie Bloomquist. He is our alien abduction, our siren song. Or at least he is for John Levesque, who once again is killing me.
The reason behind the Mariners’ sweep of the Angels, and the reason they’ve been playing .600 ball over the last 10 games (yes, I know), isn’t the resurgence of the team’s top-tier talent — it’s the scrappy, hustling, hometown boy. Why? No one can really tell, least of all the P-I’s former TV critic.
Apart from sprinkling magic pixie dust around the clubhouse, Bloomquist is said to bring a “spark” to the team. He is also, like David Eckstein, “making things happen.” In baseballese, these terms are equivalent to the French “je ne sais quoi,” which literally means “I don’t know what.”
And that’s what Levesque means: he’s sure Bloomquist is doing something right, but he isn’t sure what it is, and even if he was, he couldn’t prove it. Call it faith-based analysis.
Where Levesque does try to offer statistical support for his position, it gets surreal and frustrating, akin to teaching a desert tortoise about French philosophy.
For instance, Bloomquist has had only 100 at-bats this season, but he has scored 15 times. Only Sexson, the team’s designated slugger, and Ichiro, the designated hit machine, score more often per 100 at-bats (17.8 and 16.5 times, respectively).
Calling this laughable is like saying Carrot Top isn’t: so obvious it’s hardly worth doing. But let’s endeavor.
Pinch-runners aren’t charged with at-bats, but they do score runs. Bloomquist is the team’s pinch-runner, and has scored two of those 15 runs as such. Plus, the statistic is flawed anyway: Sexson drives himself in with home runs, but other players have to rely on teammates to drive them in.
The forehead-slapping portion of the column, though, comes here:
Regardless, if Bloomquist provides those things that help the Mariners score 5.5 runs a game, as they have in their past 10, versus 4.2 runs a game, as they did in their previous 77, the Mariners’ brass should check their obstinacy at the clubhouse door and admit that maybe, just maybe, there’s something to letting him play every day.
Remarkably, there wasn’t anything to letting him play every day during the first nine games of 2004, where the Mariners went 2-7. Even more remarkably, no other potential causes for the offensive boost are explored in the column. Ten games is a blip on the seasonal radar screen, and it’s pure folly to credit any power surge to a player whose lifetime OPS is .670.
Confusing correlation with causality, drawing specious conclusions from a tiny sample size, and ignoring any contrary evidence — it’s as if Levesque hit the Logical Fallacy Pinata, and all the bits of flawed reasoning hit the keyboard at once.
This isn’t the first time Levesque has beaten this drum. It’s a pet issue for him, and that’s fine: we all have them. Even Carl Sagan admitted he’d be thrilled to find alien life out there, though he maintained that no real proof for such life currently existed.
But let’s try a thought experiment. Let’s say Bloomquist was geting on base at a .400 clip, but had scored fewer than 15 runs — 5 or so. Do you think Levesque would write a similar column, but use the argument “look, this guy has an incredible on-base percentage!” instead of this made up “run-scoring efficiency” hokum? I think so.
What that tells me is that the conclusions come first, and the rationale comes later. This style of reasoning is many things, but scientific it ain’t. Being reasonable means admitting to yourself when you want something to be true, and being honest with yourself when it simply isn’t.
It’s true, Bloomquist has hit well over the past few games. It’s also somewhat true, as Levesque says, that he “can play every infield and outfield position.” In the same vein, I can speak nine languages, if you don’t mind limiting conversations to “hello,” “where is the bathroom,” and “another beer, please.”
Every club needs a utility guy, a versatile type to fill the final slot on the bench. In that role, Bloomquist does fine.
These are the facts, though: Bloomquist has had more than 500 at bats, including long stretches of playing every day, to prove that he is a subpar major league hitter. He’s had about 1,500 minor league at bats that support the same conclusion. This is not a starter, not even for the Devil Rays.
Like Sagan, I would love to believe in mystical positive energy, mysterious keys to victory and Willie Bloomquist as an everday player. I would love to believe that rally caps matter. But the available evidence on this point wouldn’t satisfy Carl Spackler, let alone Carl Sagan.
This particular siren song thankfully doesn’t threaten our freedoms — but it does threaten the fate of the hometown nine. Plug your ears, and lash yourself to the deck if you have to. But resist.
Mind Game, woot
Mind Game, the Baseball Prospectus book on the Red Sox is available for ordering (yes, I know, how timely). I’ve got a couple chapters in there (though credited as “Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts” and, annoyingly, not listed at all in the “About the Author” text even though I wrote the bulk of the chapters mentioned in the description… sigh) that I thought turned out well.
Steve Goldman (author of the fine (though Yankee-oriented) Pinstriped Bible and Pinstriped Blog as well as Forging Genius, the fine book on Casey Stengel) helmed the project, and I think it’s good stuff. Check it out. It’s also likely the last BP-related book you’ll see my writing in, so… I don’t know what that means. It’s not like that’ll make it a collector’s item or anything. Moving on!
I got a flat rate for the chapters, so it’s not like I make anything if it sells really well. I just think it’s good, I liked the roster of authors who were enlisted, and I trust Steve put together a good book. So I recommend checking it out if you’re interested at all. No pressure. Now when my book comes out… well, you’ll know book pimping when you see it.
Boone’s a Twin
Traded to Minnesota for a PTBNL. Financial details scarce, but the M’s are likely picking up almost all of his salary for this year.
“I’m pretty happy,” Boone said this morning. “This is where I wanted to go all along.”
“If it goes through it would be a good fit,” an American League scout said this morning. “The Twins are a team that focuses on strong defense, which Boone can still play, but in need of a pick-me-up, especially at second base.
I never understand why all scouts are quoted anonymously all the time, especially on something this innocous. Also: sure, he can play strong defense. The problem is that he doesn’t do it all the time any more. You get the stellar, impressive Boone along with a new, weaker-fielding version that gets the bulk of the playing time.
The Seattle Mariners Official Site has it now. I hate, hate, hate the auto-playing video clips.
Twins @ Mariners August 8-10th.
Mariners @ Twins August 18-21st.
I wonder what the reunion’s going to be like.
Crowd: Boo! Boo!
Boone: Ron…are they booing me?
Gardenhire: Uh, no, they’re saying “Boo-ne! Boo-ne!”
Boone: Are you saying “boo” or “Boo-ne”?
Crowd: Boo! Boo!
Hans: I was saying “Boo-ne”…
(adapted from The Simpsons)
Yet Another Feed Update
After previously announcing the Feed as being full, we’ve had a rash of cancellations this morning. So, for those interested in attending, we have eight remaining spots for Saturday’s game.
The event includes a two hour pregame meeting in the Ellis Pavillion at Safeco Field, hosted by BP author Jonah Keri, Derek, Jeff, and myself. We’ve got a couple of guest speakers who will be attending as well, and, let me just say, you don’t want to miss it. You’ll find out why on Saturday. After the meeting, where we’ll be providing light refreshments, we all march up to section 326 and watch the game together. And, it looks like there’s a pretty good shot we’ll be applauding Rafael Palmeiro’s 3,000th career hit, 2,184 of which came against the Mariners. Also, as a bonus, all attendees get a complimentary one month subscription to baseballprospectus.com (if you’re already subscriber, it gets extended by a month).
So, for $35, you get one of the most unique baseball experiences you can find. You really don’t want to miss out. We’d like to get these last few spots filled sooner rather than later, so email us to RSVP for the outing. Make sure to include your name, as well as the name of anyone you are bringing with you, and we’ll send you payment information and further details.
First Half Numbers
Just a few random numbers from the first half that you may find of interest.
Felix the Reliever
By the way, Felix Hernandez is making his return to the mound tonight. As a reliever. To help limit his workload, he’s going to continue to work out of the bullpen while in Triple-A.
Feed Full
Just wanted to let you all know that we are officially out of room for the U.S.S. Mariner trip to the park for next Saturday. If any spots open up this week, we’ll let you know. If you are certain you will be available and would like to be on a 5 man “reserve” list, send us an email (put “reserve” in the subject line) with a phone number you can be reached at Saturday, and we will call you if there are any last minute cancellations.
We’ll see everyone who signed up there. And I’m fairly certain you won’t be disappointed.
Game 87, Mariners at Angels
Sorry this is late, but like Diamond Dave once said, I don’t feel tardy.
Game 86, Mariners at Angels
Pre-game quotes about the potential for trading Eddie Guardado:
“I’m not sure we would want to (trade him),” Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi said. “We certainly would not take a cavalier approach to moving him. This guy’s really important. I know important guys have been traded from clubs, but he’s very important to us.
“This team right now is lacking success, it’s lacking character – it’s lacking a lot of things that Eddie Guardado’s got.”
Eddie’s got success? He’s been holding out on us! I’ll hold him, you search his locker. He can keep the character.
Let’s see if Ryan Franklin’s character involves keeping the ball down, getting ahead in the count and scoring runs early. John Lackey goes for the Angels.
Willie and Washburn
As maddening as it may have been to see Bloomquist in the lineup again last night, you pretty much have to start him any time the team faces Jarrod Washburn. I used to write about this when I did his profile for the Grand Salami, but however you slice it, Bloomquist owns Washburn — he’s 10-for-20 against him in his career with a .545 OBP and one of his two career triples.
Sample size, schmample size. Every hitter has one pitcher — his bizzaro-world match — he simply destroys. Whether or not the two ever actually face each other is a different story, however, and I hear Charles Gipson is still looking for his.