Week #11 in Review
Bring on the interleague craziness!
It took the Mariners the entire month of May to win two series. Not only have they won their first two series in June, they’ve now won four in a row.
Vital Signs
On this Friday we find the Mariners 26-32, sitting firmly in third place. They still find themselves in third place in the AL West, and gained a game on the division-leading Angels, who now sit 7.5 games over the M’s. The adjusted standings over at Baseball Prospectus suggest the Mariners are a little less than a game unlucky. Lady luck is finally beginning to shine her face on the M’s as they have now won 8 of their last 11, including a record of 6-1 in games decided by just one run in those games.
The offense is tied with the Royals for 11th in the league, scoring 249 runs, comparable also to the Tigers and A’s. Their 40 home runs rank 13th in the league and their 167 walks tie them for 7th, square between divison leaders Chicago and Baltimore. Meanwhile, their .316 on-base percentage ranks 11th and their .383 slugging percentage ranks 13th. As a team, they are hitting .254/.316/.383 compared to the American League average of .260/.330/.414. While the Mariners are getting their hits at about the league average (thank you, Mr. Ichiro!), their ability to draw walks and hit for power are still lagging far behind the rest of the league. Their .258 EqA ranks 23rd in all of baseball.
The defense has allowed 267 runs, which makes them the 8th best team in the American League at keeping runs off the board. The gloves are turning 71.3% of balls in play into outs, which is the 4th best rate in the American League. Overall, the pitching staff is looking league average, with a staff ERA of 4.43. The starters continue to slowly shave the runs of their ERA, trimming it down to a 5.09 ERA, while the bullpen continues to be solid with a 3.12 ERA.
May we please continue with opponents with aquatic mascots? The Mariners took 4 of 6 from the Devil Rays and Marlins, despite outscoring them just 29-25. While they hit just 3 home runs all week (thank you, Mr. Ibanez), the pitching staff allowed just a pair of long balls. And, they were out-walked 22-15. For the week, they hit .271/.332/.386.
Good contact. Bad contact over the fence.
Heroes
Raul Ibanez continues his hot hitting, going 9-for-23 (.391/.417/.696) with a double and a pair of home runs. He led the team in total bases (16) and RBI (6). If there’s any word of caution in regards to Ibanez, its that his recent hot streak is mostly batting average-driven. He has just 5 walks over the last two weeks.
And congratulations goes out to Mike Morse, for not only collecting his first major league hit, but a perfect 7. He went 7-for-18 (.389/.450/.500).
Aaron Sele made a pair of starts and allowed just 15 batters the courtesy of first base in 12+ innings. While he walked only 1 in those starts en route to a total of 4 runs, he struck out only 5. I’ll take those wins while I can get ’em, but I ain’t pinning my future hopes to it.
Not-so-much Heroes
From too-hot-to-handle to too-cold-to-hold, Jeremy Reed went just 1-for-14 (.071/.071/.143), the only consolation being his one hit was a double.
Gil Meche walked 5 Marlins in 5 innings in a 5-4 loss Wednesday night. It was his roughest outing since the end of April. He allowed 4 runs.
Coming to a stadium near you
As a former resident of both Snohomish County and Fairfax County, this is the matchup I’ve been waiting for. Nationals vs. Mariners. And I’m still lamenting that the year I move from the DC area, not only does the District get a team, but also the Mariners play in RFK.
The streaking Nats have won 7 straight and sit atop the NL East, despite a run differential of -3. I saw Washington play in Cincinnati two weeks ago, and this is a team that struggles as mightily as the Mariners to score runs. They’re 13th in their league in scoring. It’s the pitching that’s carrying the Nationals, but the Mariners will miss out on staff ace and workhorse Livan Hernandez. Instead, they’ll see Tomo Ohka (54 IP, 11.1 VORP), John Patterson (53 IP, 17.8 VORP) and Tony Armas (37 IP, 3.2 VORP).
You thought the Mariners had troubles with the bottom third of their lineup. The Nats are getting an OPS of .623, .641 and .493 from the bottom third of their order (understandably, that is a pitcher at #9).
And just for kicks, consider this: Livan Hernandez is hitting .206/.229/.324 in 34 at bats. All Mariner pinch hitters are “hitting” .237/.256/.316 in 38 at bats. The Nationals’ pitching staff has 2 home runs. The Mariners’ bench has 0.
Next, the Mariners will host the similarly streaking Philadelphia Phillies. They Phils have won 7 of their last 8 series, including 13 of their last 15 games. Their offense is second only to the Cardinals in the National League, despite Jim Thome only hitting .205/.365/.333.
Last week, the Mariners caught the Devil Rays, and let’s face it, they’re still the Devil Rays, and the Marlins, who are struggling as of late. This next week will show a truer test of what the Mariners are or are not capable of doing on the field.
Ryan Drese
So, the P-I notebook this morning contains the following blurb:
According to club sources, the Mariners are discussing whether to make a waiver claim on right-handed pitcher Ryan Drese. He was the Texas starting pitcher on Opening Day, but was designated for assignment Wednesday by the Rangers. Any team in baseball can claim him by the end of business today. However, any team that does so will have to pay Drese the remainer of the $700,000 he’s owed for this year and his $1.75 million contract for 2006.
Ugh. Ryan Ludwick isn’t their kind of player, but Ryan Drese tickles their fancy? Look at this:
ERA, by year: 6.55, 6.85, 4.20, 6.46. Career: 5.36.
K/9, by year: 6.68, 5.09, 4.25, 2.58(!). Career: 4.89
BB/K, by year: 1.65, 1.08, 1.69, 0.83. Career: 1.48
Opposing hitters, by year: .317/.386/.494, .314/.404/.500, .285/.339/.409, .334/.390/.470.
He’s an extreme groundball pitcher with mediocre control who doesn’t miss bats. He’s Dan Reichert’s twin, who we got to spring training on a non-guaranteed minor league deal, and then released. There’s no reason to want Drese on the roster. At a guaranteed $1.75 million next year, the fact that they’re even considering it is scary.
Just say no to Ryan Drese.
The Attrition War, Cubs
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Cubs.
The Attrition War, Cardinals
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Cardinals.
Hey now
That’s 8 out of 11 for the boys in blue.
Game 58, Mariners at Marlins
The Mariners try to reel in the fish (hey, you knew someone had to say it eventually) tonight in the final game of a three-game series. After this, the sublime magic of interleague play continues with a slate of games against the Senators/Gnats.
Aaron “Slow Hand” Sele versus Josh Beckett tonight. TV FSN, Radio KOMO.
Positivity corner: at least Beckett throws with his right arm.
PI bit, other good stuff
How many runs do you need to win?
And, as always — if you want these columns to keep going, or if you’d like to see this stuff in print, a totally random passer-by offered places you can write to express your opinions.
In the PI notebook, Boone is trying to lay off the high cheese.
“It’s been an Achilles’ heel for much of his career,” Hargrove said. “Now he’s trying to stay off high pitches. When he does that, the pitches he’ll get to swing at will be better.”
Woooooo!!!
Also as part of their fine draft coverage, Baseball America has the Mariner team draft up.
It’s cool to just browse through. Clement, five pitchers (one out of high school), two college 3B, a Puerto Rican OF… of their 48 picks, fully half were college players.
Take a Mulligan
We’ve all written things we’d like to have back. Being wrong is part of the opinion-proferring gig.
I’ll speculate that at season’s end Jon Paul Morosi will not be happy he wrote this, his piece of a week ago about how Aaron Sele has turned the corner. Of course, this was written before Sele’s last (poor) start, and I almost posted something then, but I think an examination of the emerging narrative is still worthwhile.
The article makes the case that Sele’s slower delivery has been helping him out. It also makes a bit of an excuse for him when we’re told that Sele’s worst starts have been against hot-hitting teams. This is not strictly true, but it helps to advance the narrative that, even when he’s been off, Sele hasn’t been as terrible as our eyes have told us.
This is my favorite part, though. Later in the article we advance the “Pat Borders, Miracle Worker” plotline that has been filling broadcast airtime ad nauseum.
Though the sample sizes are small, the statistics are telling:
When throwing to Borders, he is 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA in two starts.
When throwing to Miguel Olivo, he is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA in six starts.
When throwing to Dan Wilson, he is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts.
“Anytime you can have someone with 20 years of experience as your direct working partner, it’s a great support,” Sele said.
But … but I thought Sele’s bad starts were the result of pitching to Angel and Yankee hitters, not the absence of veteran savvy from that whippersnapper Dan Wilson! To J.P.’s credit, at least he throws Danny Boy under one bus tire and Miguel Olivo under the other instead of leaving Olivo lonely.
We’re all thrilled when the Mariners get an effective start out of one of their pitchers. We’re all rooting for Sele. Let’s not get wacky and say that three good starts in ten or eleven chances mean he’s figured it out. By contrast, whenever anyone asks Mike Hargrove if the team’s turned the corner, he gives words to the effect of “ask me in three weeks.” Would that it were otherwise, but at season’s end, Morosi may wish he’d taken a similar tack in the paper.
For those of you who think I’m just posting this now in a craven reverse-jinx attempt to jump-start Sele’s mojo for his start tonight, I’ll just say this: I don’t mind being wrong.
Game 57, Mariners at Marlins
RHP Gil Meche v LHP Dontrelle Willis. 4:05, ESPN2 and FSN.
Local writer called out in today’s press notes:
Did you know that six NL teams have not yet visited Safeco Field?… can you (Larry Stone) name them?… that’s right: from tne NL Central Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Milwaukee (that’s sort of a trick answer) and from the NL East New York, Philadelphia and Florida have not been to the house that Beinfest (helped) build…
Soriano, Pokey on the mend
With the Mariners in the midst of a three-game winning streak, it may be an overdose of good news to note Rafael Soriano’s progress. Too much positivity is a rare problem these days, though, so it’s worth noting. Soriano is throwing 90-94, and hopes to be ready after the All-Star break.
Pokey Reese is also healing, and looks to be on a six- to eight-week timetable. How he fits into the lineup depends upon what happens during that stretch.