USSM stuff
A couple of brief things and a longer one after the fold:
– I’m looking at some possible changes to commenting, like threading and the dreaded registration step. More on that as it happens, but we’re being (we believe) hand-attacked by comment spammers trying to get past that (sometimes annoying) spam-check box that has foiled them entirely since Dave Pease shared it with us. Dave Pease, by the way, awesome, and his generous donation made it dramatically easier to run the site.
– I’m working on fixing a couple of back-end things. If you notice weird site behavior, I’m probably being electrically shocked behind the scenes. Please don’t hit reload repeatedly.
– We’ve been thinking about upgrading our hosting for a while. It would mean much faster response times, better availability, none of the weird database errors you get sometime when Mr. Corcoran posts two different comments at once, causing the server to choke, and so forth. But this requires money, which leads me to…
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Game 39, Yankees at Mariners
Pavano v. Mateo! 7:05, FSN.
I like they they put up the wrong “Scouting Report” and Fairly kept on “Uhh.. he’s not Ryan Franklin, but hopefully he can go deep into the game…”
Descriptions of Sele’s start last night
We’ve generally tried to lay off talking about what others write about the Mariners, but in my daily sweep for Mariner-related news, I became confused, and a little frightened.
“Sele’s solid start unable to cool Yanks” — MLB.com headline
Right-hander Aaron Sele did his part Monday night to cool off the Major Leagues’ hottest team.
He held the rampaging Yankees to one run over six innings, departed with a one-run lead, and then watched as a dropped throw at first base — which would have completed a double play and ended the seventh inning — opened the door to a grand slam that saddled the Mariners with a 6-3 loss before 37,814 at Safeco Field.
In the Seattle PI, after a long description of the Martinez/Sexson play:
Before, the crowd saw Seattle starter Aaron Sele at his best (six innings, one run), not to mention a scintillating performance by New York’s Chien-Ming Wang, who was at least as good, maybe even better than he was in earning his first big-league win against the Mariners at Yankee Stadium last week.
Finnigan in the Times is the only one who
notes anything odd
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2002277505_mari17.html —
Sele left after six innings, his best start of the year except for six walks that endangered him most of the evening.
The AP story has the stats and then a quote:
Aaron Sele bounced back from a rough outing last week at Yankee Stadium, where he lasted only 2 2-3 innings and gave up seven runs in a 7-4 loss. He allowed one run and five hits over six innings in this one with five strikeouts and six walks — one intentional.
Sele struck out the side in the sixth, closing out the inning when Derek Jeter whiffed on an inside fastball.
“He was effectively wild,” Seattle manager Mike Hargrove said. “He kept a very hot ballclub on the ropes by doing it that way.”
Did I see a different game than everyone last night? Did I fall asleep and dream a different game? I saw Sele nibble and walk the hitters who didn’t tee off on him, barely escape being blown out of the stadium, and then suddenly strike out three hitters in a row at the end.
This is a product of the way stories are written: the event that changed the game is central to the story, and that didn’t involve Sele, so his start gets summarized quickly, and the easy summary is that he only gave up a run and wasn’t part of the final outcome.
It also helps to conceal the fact that Sele looked bad. Fortunately, the Mariner brass may take fan sentiment into account, but they’re also seeing him pitch, and they saw the same game I did.
The King
Coming off his most dominant start of the year, King Felix is on the hill now down in Albuquerque. The Isotopes, despite their loony nickname, have been whacking the ball all over the park this year, though I think I could hit .350 down there.
If you want to listen to the broadcast, tune in now.
Go Felix.
Edited to add: Felix took a liner off his foot in the second inning and left the game.
Madritsch out until September at least
Almost unnoticed, Madristch has talked about a timetable, and it made me sad. From MLB.com:
“The best-case scenario would have me coming back around the first of September, and the worst case would be pitching in the Instructional League,” he said. “The way I look at it, I’m not going to the Instructional League (in Arizona).”
Game 38, Yankees at Mariners
RHP Wang v RHP Sele (Sele’s still on the roster? What?) 7:05. KSTW.
Campillo got pulled from a start a couple days ago, was supposedly congratulated by his teammates, his manager would say nothing, and now… nothing’s happened. I’m as baffled as you. Maybe if Sele really gets hammered today at home, Lincoln’ll do that thing where he calls Bavasi and asks him what it’ll take to make the guy disappear the way Spiezio did.
What’s really stunning is that the Mariners have 11k tickets left for Tuesday’s game and 9k left for Wednesday games. This means that not only did season-ticket sales dive this year, but that single-ticket sales didn’t even make up the gap for a New York series (midweek though it is). That’s trouble.
Wiki, etc
Wiki’s on the 15-day DL, and word is he’ll be out at least that long and probably longer. Rene Rivera’s up.
In Tacoma, they’re now running a Ryan Christianson-Bryce Terveen combo, which is interesting at least. Terveen’s a lefty-hitting, righty-throwing catcher the M’s signed as a minor league FA, 27… and that’s about all I know about him.
The Times has the Mariners possibly looking into (repeatedlyCorcoran-endorsed) Benito Santiago, or some other possibilities: Kelly Shoppach in Boston, Pat Borders, Ben Davis (no, really) Todd Greene, Shawn Wooten (no, really), and even Gerald Laird.
The PI offers in return: Pat Borders! Bentio Santiago, Greg Myers, and possibly calling up Ryan Christianson. They also note that any player brought in would require a spot on the 40-man (while Rivera does not). Obvious candidates for clearing that spot would be Aaron Sele and Jeff Nelson.
Bucky had surgery, feels good, will continue rehab. No return date.
To The Wolves
Since I wasn’t around the blog all weekend, I didn’t get to weigh in on Jason being named GM and giving Julio Mateo a start. On the surface, moving a guy who has a 0.41 ERA into a role where he can actually have an impact ono the outcome of a game rather than pitching mopup duty looks like a pretty good idea. Its pretty tough to argue with an ERA that starts with zero point anything, and Mateo was pretty outstanding in 2003 as well.
Here’s my problem, though. While the results Julio Mateo have been getting this year are obviously phenomenal, there’s almost no reason to think that he’s showing any kind of sustainable skill that we didn’t already know he possessed. In other words, he’s exactly the same pitcher now as he has been. Let’s break down his numbers a bit.
Batters faced: 83
Walks and Hit Batters – 5 (6 percent)
Strikeouts – 10 (12 percent)
Home runs – 0 (0 percent)
Balls In Play – 68 (82 percent)
Mateo has been the epitome of a successful contact pitcher to date, mixing in almost no walks with literally no home runs and not many strikeouts and getting a ton of outs by allowing the defense to make plays. Now, let’s take a slightly closer look at his ball in play results.
Balls In Play – 68
Line Drives – 7 (10 percent)
Ground Balls – 22 (32 percent)
Fly Balls – 39 (57 percent)
Mateo’s an extreme flyball pitcher. That’s not new; he’s been this way this whole career. It’s also one of the reasons he’s been so prone to giving up home runs. Ron Shandler published a study in the Baseball Forecaster that showed historically that pitchers give up a home run on about 10 percent of their flyballs, and there do not seem to be any pitchers who have consistently been able to keep giving up flyballs while keeping the ball in the yard. For example, Mateo gave up 14 homers on 128 flyballs in 2003 (11 percent) and 11 home runs on 89 flyballs in 2004 (12 percent).
Mateo is yet to give up a home run this season. Using the 10 percent guideline, he “should” have given up 4 by now. This isn’t to say he hasn’t pitched well, but in projecting him going forward, we’re better off projecting a regression to a normal home run/flyball rate rather than assuming he’s developed a mysterious ability to induce 350 foot outs.
His home run rate isn’t the only anomalous part of his balls in play stats. He’s allowed just 12 hits on 68 balls in play, a .176 batting average. The league average is .293. Now, because flyballs are turned into outs at a greater percentage than groundballs and Mateo is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball, we expect him to post a better than average BABIP. Based on his raw numbers, Mateo “should” have allowed 17 hits on balls in play to date, a .250 average. He’s only allowed 12, which, again, is a rate that we can’t expect him to sustain.
I used another statistic developed by Ron Shandler called expected ERA to “normalize” Mateo’s performance to date had he given up the extra 5 hits on balls in play and 4 of his flyballs were turned into home runs. Using the formula (found here if you’re really geeky), Mateo’s expected ERA based on his normalized components is 3.85.
Essentially, if he continues to pitch with the same groundball, flyball, and contact rates he is now, we would expect him to post an ERA just a bit below 4.00 in a neutral park with a neutral defense. Pitching in Safeco Field in front of one of the best defenses in the game will probably knock at least half a run off that, but that won’t be something we should attribute to his skills.
So, what we have is a guy whose results are far, far exceeding what you would expect based upon the style of pitching he’s adopted. Even if he pitches just as well as he has to date, his ERA is going to rise pretty dramatically over the next few months. Despite the 0.41 ERA, a look inside his numbers shows no sustainable skill that will allow him to continue outpitching his hostorical norms. It should be noted, though, that his historical norms still make him one of the best pitcher’s on the staff.
So, while I applaud the M’s effort to get one of their better pitchers into more important innings and potentially give the rotation a boost, I’m not sure sending him out to face the New York Yankees in his first start in years is a great way to set him up for success. They lead the league in runs scored, are second in EqA, and are hitting .336/.402/.591 the past week while averaging 9 runs per game.
Contact flyball pitcher making first start in years + Steamrolling offense = Yikes.
I wish I had a little more optimism about how tomorrow night’s experiment was going to go, but realistically, I think this is probably going to be a one time thing. I only hope that a poor outing tomorrow night won’t relegate Mateo to long relief for the rest of the year.
Evil Rick Rizzs
For all the grief people give Rick Rizzs, you have to give the Mariner broadcaster one thing: he’s a relentless optimist. Anyone who can find the bright side of a Yankee sweep makes Norman Vincent Peale look like the dead guy from Joy Division, and I respect that.
I find it hard to give Rizzs a hard time because he seems so unflappably affable. I don’t know how he does it. Doesn’t everyone have a dark side?
Well, when I went to the game the other night, I was surprised to see a familiar looking man sitting next to me. He had wild, distinctive eyebrows that sloped downward, a supple voice that rumbled dramatically and just the hint of a brimstone flash behind his eyes.
“Say, friends,” he offered, even though I was the only one around, “Bret Boone might not have skills he once had, but you know what? He’s not trying as hard, either.”
I watched the rest of the game with Evil Rick Rizzs.
Whether Evil Rick is a refugee from some parallel universe where up is down and Ichiro can’t hit, I don’t know. Perhaps he is a ghostly doppelganger, haunting Safeco Field in search of his amiable terrestrial double; perhaps he is a Sybil-esque independent persona. Or perhaps he is the physical manifestation of an overactive imagination.
Whatever he is, I had to ask him to write us a post.
After a spirited negotiation — Evil Rick asked for 12 fresh souls, but I talked him down to a case of Billy Beer, a lock of Bud Selig’s “hair” and Pete Rose’s autograph — we reached an accord. This is what he turned in:
Well, good evening, friends, Evil Rick Rizzs with you tonight. My good counterpart is off at the library with Dr. Jekkyl, or volunteering at the Dorian Gray Soup Kitchen or something. Useless hippie.
You know, folks, when Jerry or whatever his name is asked me to write this, I was thrilled. No, not because of any opportunity to reach dedicated fans. I hate the Internet and everything on it. But thanks to the fifth-best blogger on this site, I have a forum for a few things I’d like to tell you about myself.
Like how, before Ryan Franklin pitches, I like to remind him that surrendering flyouts costs the “K’s for Kids” program financial support. So he is effectively stealing money from children in need.
He sometimes cries.
Then I just point at the tears, say “that is your MAGNOLIA MOMENT!” and cackle like a vampire.
Say, friends, whenever the Junior Sportscaster Inning rolls around, I bring a puppy into the booth. Then, I kick that puppy. Hard. Because I hate children and puppies, and because the puppy’s anguished yelp will hold more meaning than any exchange with Little Billy.
“Billy,” I’ll say through clenched teeth, rooting for the Mariners to make outs in a blessed hurry, “how are you doing today, pal?” “Good,” he’ll say. “Billy,” I want to tell him, “do you know what ‘monosyllabic’ means, buddy?”
But then I remember that every moment of air that kid fills is a moment that Henderson or Valle can’t speak. This brings an evil grin to my evil, evil face.
Ah, now listen that whistle. The sound of that locomotive outside Safeco Field reminds me of how much I would like to run over Dave Valle with a train.
Here are some tips for all you Little Leaguers out there: quit now, before your dreams fail. Also, kids, when mom or dad get a speeding ticket, wait until the officer has moved on and your parent is seething with rage. Then, point at the dollar figure and ask: “Are these the happy totals?”
After seeing Bill Buckner at the park last night, I removed a delicious Washington apple from my lunch bag and made as if to offer him a bite. “Hey Bill,” I said, flipping him a friendly wave. He smiled.
Then I rolled the apple between his legs, gave him the cackle, and hid behind Evil Dave Henderson.
Speaking of Evil Dave, after we stage a hostile, possibly armed takeover of the broadcast booth, I will implement the following rules: first, mention any “hitting streak” before it reaches five games, go to jail. No exceptions. Second, after any praise of Willie Bloomquist, the broadcaster is required to pause two full seconds, then say: “Of course you realize that, with those farcical comments, I am just mocking you.”
My fellow broadcasters will learn. Oh, they will learn. Turkey vultures will feast on the bones of my enemi …
Oh, all in good time. So, when do I get paid for this?
Game 37, Red Sox at Mariners
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.
In May, I was supposed to be at the Kentucky Derby with Peter, rocking an ice-white suit, sipping a mint julep and rooting for Steinbrenner’s horse to trample its owner. In May, the Mariners were supposed to be proving much better than the 2004 team.
Both happenings have, so far, been overtaken by events.
At this point last season, the M’s were 13-23, just one game worse than the team we’re watching now. Not what any of us had in mind. To watch for today: Manny Ramirez needs one home run to reach 400. Gil Meche has given up one home run in each of his last five starts.
My spreadsheet says: do the math.
Take heart, though: if you miss the Derby, you’re out of luck until next year. If your baseball team gets off to a slow start, there’s plenty of days to turn it around. Today’s as good a day as any.