Cactus League Check-In (and another game, too)
The Cactus League “season” grinds on, as the M’s send Drew Smyly to the hill today as they host the Rangers. At this point, with the M’s not quite a month into their preparations and after 10 or so practice games, we’ve seen pretty much every pitcher the M’s will begin the regular season with. While no one’s throwing the way they will in July, pitchers are – even in early March – throwing much the same as they will come April. As Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma have lost ground on their fastball velocity, their spring training numbers picked up the decline early: Felix’s ST velocity has been within 1 MPH or so of his April velocity going back several years. Hisashi Iwakuma’s 90MPH velocity was the same in March of 2012 as it was when the season began; his velo spike in 2013 was already showing up in March of that year, and his 2016 decline was reflected in last year’s spring numbers. So while there are plenty of very real caveats to using tiny snippets of spring training pitch FX numbers, it’s not like they’re completely useless.
Felix Hernandez
Felix comes into 2017 in great shape after re-dedicating himself to offseason fitness and strength training. He was pretty clearly unhappy with his declining stuff, and to his credit, took it upon himself to regain a tick or two on his sinker and fastball. A year ago, Felix was throwing about 91 MPH during the spring, which is in line with what he’d do the rest of the way. Thus far in 2017, it looks like his velocity may have crept up slightly. He averaged 92 with his sinker the other day, and he touched 93 several times…something he didn’t do at all last spring. That’s not a huge improvement, but anything other than continued velocity decline would be pretty welcome news. It may not mean anything, but his change has not had an equivalent gain, meaning there’s a bit more separation between fastball and offspeed. Felix hasn’t really needed that separation, and it given the sample, it may be nothing, but it’s something to watch for as we wait for meaningful games to start.
Thyago Vieira
Vieira’s incredible velocity was the story of the Arizona Fall League, and the imposing Brazilian gets regular coverage in Ryan Divish’s twitter feed and game stories. He routinely exceeded 100 MPH in Arizona, and posted decent control numbers during the 2016 minor league season. That sounded like a great combination, and one that could catapult the 23 year old to the majors at some point this year. At this point, his average velocity’s down a tick or two from the Fall League, though his peak velocity shows he’s still more than capable of 100-101. The problem’s been his control, and Divish noted in his first appearance that he eased up on his fastball in order to find the zone. Vieira pitched again this weekend, and had even more trouble trying to locate his pitches. Just 12 of his 25 fastballs were strikes, with the majority of his misses clustering towards the right-handed batters box. Plenty of pitchers have command lapses in early March, so it’s not yet a huge red flag, but given the control issues that have plagued his tenure in the M’s system (at least until last year), it’s something to watch. On the plus side, it’s nice that Vieira can dial his fastball back and STILL sit in the upper 90s. (Kate Preusser has a great profile of him today at Fangraphs, incidentally.)
Chris Heston
I mentioned in the game preview before his first appearance that it’d be great to see him touching 90 instead of the 88 he was at in his first MLB action since TJ surgery last year. In that start, he was still firmly in the 88-89 range, but he looked much better over the weekend, touching 91 and averaging just under 90. Obviously, velocity’s not a huge part of Heston’s game, but here his velocity is more a measure of his overall arm strength. Heston was a decent big league starter before his injury, and while his upside isn’t that high, it’s not bad for a potential 5th-6th-7th starter. Given that the injury risk in the rotation is always high, and probably higher still for the M’s, depth like Heston is critical. If he can build on the velocity he showed the other day, he’s got a decent chance to add some value. It’s not all the way back to pre-injury levels yet, but at least the trend’s going in the right direction.
James Paxton
Ok, ok, when I said spring velocity numbers weren’t totally useless…that doesn’t apply to James Paxton. Perhaps no pitcher in recent memory’s had such a varied record in terms of his velocity. The fact that he’s had so many nagging injuries probably has something to do with it, but it’s not the only thing. In early March of 2013, he averaged 91 MPH on his fastball, before getting a September call-up that year on the strength of his 95-96 MPH heater. He sat about 95 the following spring, and bumped that up to 96 in April before a long, injury-necessitated layoff. His velo was fairly stable until April of 2015, when it briefly dipped a bit to just under 94, but he was back on track before another injury took several more months from him. Last spring, he was down noticeably, averaging 92 or so- he’d show flashes of 95 MPH velo, but wasn’t able to sustain it, and thus lost his bid for a rotation spot to Nate Karns and headed to Tacoma instead. You know what happened then – he touched 100 in his first game back for Seattle and averaged 98, and while his velocity dimmed a bit towards the end of the year, he sustained the highest velocity of his career for half a season. Given all of that, I was very interested to see where he was this spring, even if we’ve just demonstrated that Paxton’s spring velo bears surprisingly little relationship to his regular season numbers. This Saturday, Paxton averaged 95, with his fastest pitch registering 97. That’s clearly down from where he left off, but we’ll see if he improves over the course of the spring or if he again does something completely different during the season. I’ll admit that, despite its lack of predictive power, it would make me feel a lot more confident in the M’s rotation to see Paxton sitting 97 in a game this spring.
Ok, there’s still a game today, and maybe we’ll see how Drew Smyly’s velocity looks.
1: Dyson, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Valencia, 1B
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: Zunino, C
7: Heredia, LF
8: Motter, 2B
9: O’Malley, SS
SP: Smyly
Still More Cactuses: M’s at Rangers
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Tyler Wagner, 12:10pm
Good to see Iwakuma take the mound, as he’s going to be critical to the M’s playoff chances this year. After an injury-plagued 2015 and his worst MLB season last year, Iwakuma’s kind of at a crossroads. If he bounces back to his career averages, he gives the M’s an excellent mid-rotation starter and allows the M’s starting pitching depth to be deployed to back up Yovani Gallardo or whoever gets hurt. If Iwakuma’s ineffective or hurt AND Gallardo struggles, the M’s are in trouble. He’ll turn 36 shortly and his X-rays looked scary enough that he’s had two contract offers rescinded, but it’s impossible not to root for the guy. A mild rebound – which is essentially what the projections systems have him down for – is a huge help: a slightly above-average starter who’s durable enough to soak up a lot of innings.
Texas starter Tyler Wagner’s bounced between the Brewers, D-Backs and now Rangers in his brief career. He moved from Milwaukee to Arizona alongside new M’s shortstop Jean Segura actually, in a package for Chase Anderson/Aaron Hill/SS prospect Isan Diaz a bit more than a year ago. If you’ve been reading the minor league recaps, you’ll recall I’ve actually mentioned Wagner a few times – which is strange for a low-round draft pick without much in the way of raw stuff. Still, Wagner opened enough eyes in AA in 2015 that he got a cup of coffee with the big club, and he was seen as polished enough to be a part of a big trade just before the 2016 system. Back in 2015, I called him a sinkerballer, but BrooksBaseball calls his fastball a four-seamer…albeit one that has a lot of sink. He throws a slurve at 79 that’s got a fair amount of spin, and he’s had some success with a straight change that doesn’t look like it should be effective, but has been thus far. An interesting pitch for him is a hard cutter – it’s thrown at 90mph, essentially as fast as his four-seam FB, which averages 90-91. The cutter has similar vertical movement, but half a foot or more less armside run. It looks and acts like a fastball, so Wagner uses it accordingly: in his very brief MLB career, he’s thrown about 35% four-seamers and 30% cutters. He’s not a big strikeout guy at all, and his minor league walk rates aren’t anything special, so if he’s going to succeed, it’s going to be by keeping the ball on the ground.
1: Dyson, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Haniger, RF
8: Gosewisch, C
9: Powell, LF
SP: Iwakuma
Should get a look at more of the NRI relievers the M’s picked up this offseason, like Christian Bergman and Ryan Weber, today.
Sounds like Andrew Moore and Chase de Jong will pitch in a split-squad game on Sunday vs. the Dodgers. Moore gets the start in that one, while Felix starts the other game. That one’s important because it’ll be the first M’s game to get televised. It’ll be on Root Sports.
Cactus League Game 6: Brewers at Mariners
Ariel Miranda vs. Matt Garza, 12:10pm
Lefty Ariel Miranda was sharp in the M’s first game of the spring, but the list of guys he’s competing with keeps growing. The arrival of Chase de Jong (who may play in a split squad game this weekend) means the M’s now have even more options for rotation depth. Of course, most of those options are right handed, so Miranda’s got an edge, but even that’s a double-edged sword. Given the M’s interest in having lefty options in the pen, Miranda might get more of a look as a swingman/lefty reliever.
The M’s face the suddenly intriguing Milwaukee Brewers, who’ve been remaking their team quickly and effectively over the past year under new GM David Stearns. Today they’ll face long-time right-handed dude bro Matt Garza, who’s struggled mightily over the past two seasons with the Brewers. At his peak, he was successful against righties and lefties alike, with a curve and slider that were equal-opportunity weapons. Ultimately, though, his success was predicated on fastball command, as his four-seam and sinker mix drove his production. In 2014, his sinker in particular was difficult to elevate, and he was great (when healthy). Since then, though, his fastball’s been hit harder, and his breaking balls have been less effective against…righties.
A slight downturn in results by various pitch types is normal for a pitcher who’s now 33 years old, and his fastball results still haven’t been THAT bad. Instead, what’s killed him recently is an absolutely abysmal strand rate. Even in 2014, was devilishly low at 66.6%, and it’s only dropped further since. He finished 2016 with a 63.3% mark, which ranked 139th out of 142 pitchers to throw 100 IP. Of the 132 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 300 IP since 2014, Garza’s 65.3% average ranks dead last.
1: Dyson, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Vogelbach, 1B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Haniger, DH
6: Ruiz, C
7: Motter, 3B
8: O’Neill, LF
9: O’Malley, 2B
SP: Miranda
The M’s will soon see an exodus from training camp, as Jean Segura will join Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz on the Dominican World Baseball Classic roster, while Tyler O’Neill will suit up for Team Canada and King Felix for Venezuela. In all, 12 players have some sort of commitment to the WBC, with Drew Smyly joining Team USA in the 2nd round. The complete list is here. Of the M’s top 10 projected players by WAR, 6 (Felix, Segura, Cano, Cruz, Smyly and Edwin Diaz) will play in the WBC.
The Brewers line up features ex-Mariner and ex-Korean League MVP Eric Thames, who’s trying to prove his utter destruction of the KBO wasn’t a fluke. His signing was a great, low-risk, potentially high-reward move by the Brewers. Today’s starters also include top prospects Lewis Brinson and Oswaldo Arcia, along with Brett Phillips. Phillips was a rising star in the Astros system before moving over with Josh Hader in the Carlos Gomez deal (man, did THAT work out for Milwaukee). He had a great pure hit tool, with K rates solidly under 20% up the chain for Houston, but starting striking out a ton as soon as he got to the Brewers. After a down year last year (ameliorated a bit by a great walk rate), he’s looking to prove he’s still a candidate for a promotion this year.
It’d Been Too Long: M’s/Dodgers Swap Prospects
It had been over a month since Jerry Dipoto last made a trade – an entire calendar month (albeit the shortest one) without at least an A ball prospect heading to a different corner of the Cactus League. The counter got re-set last night, however, as the M’s and Dodgers traded mid-tier prospects for the second time in a year. The M’s get polished RH starting pitcher Chase de Jong, and give up SS Drew Jackson and RP Aneurys Zabala.
de Jong’s a command guy with fastball in the low-90s/high-80s, but he spots it well and has a change-up along with a hard slider/cutter and slurve. After a solid but unspectacular 2015 campaign in the Midwest League and California League, de Jong broke out with a great year for AA Tulsa, winning the Texas League Pitcher of the Year award. With his lanky frame (he’s 6’4″), plus pitchability and no big signature pitch, he kind of reminds me of Ryan Yarbrough, the ex-M’s prospect who won a *different* AA league’s Pitcher of the Year award last year, and went to Tampa in the Drew Smyly deal. Yarbrough was a bit better overall, and may have a touch more stuff at this point, but de Jong’s considerably younger.
In return, the headliner heading to LA is SS Drew Jackson, whom the M’s drafted out of Stanford a few years back. He was always a glove-first player and had an arm scouts graded plus to plus-plus, but surprised everyone with his bat early on. He was named the NWL’s MVP in 2015 and won a batting title, while showing blazing speed on the basepaths. He struggled a bit in 2016, though, showing almost no power (even in the California League) and showing a big decline in his stolen base rate. There’s still some potential there, but a guy without power AND without elite contact skills (he struck out over 100 times) is not an elite prospect. He ranked 10th in BP’s Mariners list, but the M’s themselves ranked 26th in MLB for the quality of their farm system. The Dodgers ranked 7th, so it’s not a big knock on de Jong that he didn’t crack the top 10. MLB Pipeline had de Jong as the Dodger’s 16th-best prospect, and have him 15th in Seattle’s system.
Aneurys Zabala is a Dominican reliever with a live arm but serious control issues who made some big strides last year in the Arizona League. While that’s encouraging and all, and he cracked the back end of the M’s top 30 list, this does not seem like a huge loss.
de Jong’s probably going to start 2017 in Tacoma’s rotation, and he joins the heated battle to earn a call-up during the year. Overall, this is a solid move, as the M’s hope they don’t need as much SS depth after acquiring Jean Segura. They’re probably hoping, though, that things go better than the last time these two clubs made a move like this. The M’s moved Chris Taylor for close-to-the-majors starter Zach Lee, and watched as Taylor got a look in the majors while Lee imploded in the PCL. Obviously, prior results are no guarantee of future performance, and frankly, I’m glad the M’s replaced some of the high-minors pitching depth they lost in the Smyly and Pazos trades.
Cactus League Game 5: Smyly Tyme
M’s at Indians, 12:05pm
Drew Smyly vs. Trevor Bauer
The M’s newest starting pitcher, and the pitching acquisition with by far the most upside, takes the mound today. The former Tampa Bay Ray throws a four-seam fastball in the low 90s with a hard “curve” that’s been his best pitch. His third pitch is a cutter that he’ll throw to lefties and righties alike, but it’s never worked all that well. Batters have had more success on the cutter than any other pitch over the course of his career, and as his HR rate has soared in recent years, the cutter’s been a key source of the problem. Last year, batters slugged .636 on the offering, and in his abbreviated 2015, they slugged .714. It was actually a good pitch for him going back to his days with the Tigers, so something’s going on with it. Its movement was distinctly un-cutter-like last year, and it sort of blended in to his fastball. That said, its degree of actual cut and sink has ebbed and flowed throughout the years, so there’s nothing convincing in the pure movement data. Still, if I’m the M’s coaching staff, improving that pitch (or replacing it with a different one) would be my first priority. Perhaps as an alternative, Smyly’s made more use of his change-up in recent years, but that’s been no better: batters have slugged .836 off of it in his career (though he’s only thrown 340 of them).
I put curve in quotes up above, because Smyly’s curve really is an odd duck. It doesn’t… it doesn’t curve, see. For a guy throwing from a very over-the-top arm slot, we wouldn’t expect a ton of horizontal movement. But ALL of Smyly’s horizontal movement is arm side. You know, the OPPOSITE way a breaking ball is supposed to break. This means that Smyly throws the pitch like a curve, with curveball velocity, but that it works like a change-up or splitter. A slow-splitter. Eno Sarris worked with Driveline Baseball to essentially “invent” what he called a reverse curveball, or a slow breaking ball with armside break. Well, Drew Smyly already throws it.
I think I’ve written way too much about Trevor Bauer as it is and have no desire to add to it here.
The line up:
1: Martin, CF
2: Valencia, 1B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Zunino, C
6: Vogelbach, DH
7: Gamel, RF
8: Smith, SS
9: Powell, LF
SP: Drew Smyly
Also pitching today for the M’s are Edwin Diaz, newly acquired pitching prospect Max Povse, and fireballing relief prospect Thyago Vieira.
Hey, a Boog Powell sighting! The ex-Ray seemed like a big part of the Brad Miller/Nate Karns swap, but a 2nd PED violation means we haven’t seen a whole lot of him.
Cactus League Game 4: Felix v. Kopech
M’s at White Sox
KING FELIX v. Michael Kopech, 12:10pm
A very happy Felix Day to all of you.
We’ve had the novelty of live baseball on the radio, and we’ve explored the some of the lower-tier roster battles that make up the meager drama that this spring can gin up. Today, though…today, we get something interesting, and a game that most baseball fans would tune in to if they could (seriously, still no TV?). King Felix takes the mound for the first time, showing off what a few months of training hard than he’s ever trained before can do. Opposing him is one of the crown jewels in the re-made White Sox farm system, and one of the hardest throwing pitchers in the minors last year, right up there with M’s reliever Thyago Vieira. Michael Kopech was a Red Sox prospect who garnered a lot of attention for throwing 100 and being a much more advanced pitcher than seemed fair. In high A last year, Kopech made 11 starts, spanning 52 innings, yielding just 25 hits and whiffing 82. That’s someone who needs a new challenge. Like Vieira, he was pushed to the Arizona Fall League, where he averaged 98.4 MPH on his four-seam. Yes, that’s a tick or two slower than Vieira, but remember: Kopech’s a starter.
The White Sox acquired him in the big Chris Sale deal, and if you’d heard of him before then, it was probably due to the story circulating that he hit 105 MPH with a pitch in the Carolina league. He’s also now in an organization that’s shown a remarkable ability to reduce pitcher attrition and DL trips. He’s still just 20 and hasn’t hit AA yet, but he’s certainly someone to watch.
So why’s he ranked “just” the 36th best prospect by BP? Two things: first, he has a tendency to walk people. It’s not dire, but he doesn’t have pinpoint command, and that runs his pitch counts up. Second, and much more importantly, many scouts and observers have him ticketed for the bullpen. That’s why this year’s so important. If he can shoulder a starter’s workload this year (his career high in IP came this year, at just 78), and if the Sox keep him healthy, he’s got a good shot at shooting up the rankings for next year. The Sox picked up a number of high-ceiling arms, including top 10 arm Lucas Giolito, but Kopech may end the year as the biggest “get” in the Sox rebuild.
The game’s in Glendale, which means there won’t be an pitch fx. However, it IS a Trackman ballpark, so hopefully that gets pushed to Gameday, and that the broadcasters can give us some information about how hard Felix and Kopech are throwing.
1: Gamel, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Vogelbach, 1B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Ruiz, C
8: Heredia, LF
9: O’Malley, 3B
SP: KING FELIX
Sooooo, Yovani Gallardo…. how about that?
Dylan Unsworth is in the clubhouse for this one, along with fellow non-40-man guys Andrew Moore, Jean Machi and UW product Braden Bishop.
What to Make of Jean Segura
About a week ago (I know – I’m slow), Bob Dutton of the News Tribune had a great article on Jean Segura and his strange path to both a breakout 2016 campaign and then to the M’s in perhaps the most critical trade in recent memory. You know the statistical story – a solid rookie campaign followed by two abysmal batting seasons before last year’s explosion. Dutton adds some detail that may partially explain this odd career trajectory, from a freak injury in 2014 to the loss of his child a few months later. On the plus side, there’s also more explanation on how he might have reinvented himself – from working with Robinson Cano in the offseason to working with Bobby Tewksbary in the D-Backs system, Segura really does seem to have changed his swing. So what now? What do you make of someone who’s been one of the worst AND one of the best hitters in recent years? Has he actually changed or merely had better luck on balls in play?
The new statcast data is still in its infancy, and we (or at least I) still don’t know how changes in statcast metrics like exit velocity impact things like actual production at the plate. But if there’s anything to this stuff at all, it should help answer the question of if and how Segura differed in 2016. I’m not going to bury the lede any more than I already have: Segura looked totally different. If you want to be optimistic, this helps. Here now I’m going to rely on that venerable blogging cliche, a table comparing Player A to Player B. Hey, it’s spring training for me too, okay?
| 2015 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Exit Vel. | Launch Ang. | Avg. Dist. | |
| Player A | 91.6 | 5.4 | 207 |
| Player B | 87.3 | 6 | 182 |
In 2015, both players had statistical down years. Their launch angles were nearly half of the league average, and while they didn’t K much, they just hit the ball on the ground a bit too much. Player A hit it hard, so had a better overall line, but both were disappointments. Let’s check in on both of them last year:
| 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Exit Vel. | Launch Ang. | Avg. Dist. | |
| Player A | 90.8 | 11.8 | 217 |
| Player B | 89.9 | 11.5 | 216 |
The gap in exit velocity’s narrowed considerably, but it’s launch angle that’s changed the most for both players. Their average distance is up, as you’d expect since they’re hitting the ball in the air a bit more. In this case, both players exceeded their own career average production, and at least from this carefully-curated-probably-misleading view, they look like doppelgangers.
Player B, is, of course, Segura, and Player A is his off-season training partner and new teammate, Robinson Cano. Both improved markedly, and both improved in similar ways from 2015 to 2016. Segura needed to stop hitting too many ground balls, and Cano needed to get back to hitting the ball in the air more. Both accomplished those goals. Segura’s exit velocity and angle averages now compare pretty well to Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez. That’s remarkable for a guy who was one of baseball’s weakest hitters in 2015.
Segura’s launch angle and exit velocity are more or less league average now, so it’s not like he’s in the upper echelons in either metric. But for players like Segura (and Cano), you might not want to be. The launch angle leaders include guys like Kris Bryant, but also Chris Carter and Todd Frazier. There seems to be a bit of a trade-off here: you can eliminate a lot of ground balls, but you pay for it in strikeouts. Segura makes a lot of contact, so of course he’s not going to run similar numbers to Carter or Frazier – and no one would want him to. To be fair: you can be successful with the opposite strategy, as Christian Yelich and his flurry of well-struck grounders shows. But a middle infielder with league average velocity and angle numbers AND low K’s – that seems like a recipe for success.
On the other hand, you’ve got the weight of baseball history here; it’s just hard to find hitters who’ve maintained gains like we’ve just seen with Segura. There are a number of ways to look for similar batters, so I may as well start with the easiest: his BBREF list titled, uh, “similar batters.” Here’s the top 10:
| 1. Xander Bogaerts (938.7) |
|---|
| 2. Alex Cintron (937.1) |
| 3. Angel Berroa (934.4) |
| 4. Kazuo Matsui (932.1) |
| 5. Billy Myers (931.6) |
| 6. Topper Rigney (926.0) |
| 7. Andrelton Simmons (924.4) |
| 8. DJ LeMahieu (923.4) |
| 9. Ernie Johnson (920.4) |
| 10. Carlos Garcia (919.3) |
Xander Bogaerts is a great comp from an M’s fan point of view, but Bogaerts’ career arc looks nothing like Segura’s. He scuffled in his first full year, then got better in year 2, before improving a touch more in year 3. Bogaerts’ rise looks downright normal; an adjustment period, then age-appropriate gains after figuring things out. If that’s one template, the next two represent textbook examples of its inverse: the flashes in the pan. Alex Cintron was great in his first full season in 2003, and then played *sub-replacement-level* ball for the rest of his career. Angel Berroa was essentially the AL version of Cintron, winning the ROY in 2003 and immediately turning into a replacement-level player before fizzling out. Matsui struggled, then had a decent breakout in his early 30s, but probably isn’t a great comp here for a variety of reasons (he was much older than Segura when he first came to the US). Myers and Rigney were both D-first infielders in the 20s/30s without a Segura-esque parabolic career arc. Andrelton Simmons has simply never been a positive force at the plate. DJ LeMahieu…that’s intriguing. The Rockies 2B had 2 years that were nearly as bad as Segura’s before improving a bit in 2015 and then going nuts in 2016, leading the NL in average and posting an OPS 250 points higher than his 2014 mark.
I decided to trawl through old stats and look for players who’d gained at least 15-20 points in wRC+ from one year to the next, with an eye to players who’d also LOST ground in wRC+ before their breakout year. Here’s that list:
| Alex Gordon |
|---|
| Trevor Plouffe |
| Placido Polanco |
| Kelly Johnson |
| Aaron Hill |
| Jose Lopez |
| Chone Figgins |
| Brandon Inge |
| Mike Moustakas |
| Junior Spivey |
| Marco Scutaro |
| Felipe Lopez |
| Mark Bellhorn |
That’s a lot of names, so let’s break them up a bit. Inge, Spivey and Jose Lopez have some volatility in their offensive numbers, but the more you look at them, the more you see a fairly normal – if short – peak with a drop off on either side. Spivey’s peak came right when he entered the league. Inge, like Lopez, needed a while to get there, and then dropped off quickly. Felipe Lopez and Mark Bellhorn each had two good years and bunch of bad ones. Moustakas took a while to get going, and then get hurt last year, so he’s tough to use as a comp. Chone Figgins was reasonably steady in Anaheim thanks to his OBP, but then cratered in…you know what, let’s just move on.
Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson (traded for each other in 2011) represent peak volatility, two players whose batting lines have bounced around like crazy, and producing several peaks and valleys. Hill was a glove-first SS with the Jays, before tapping into his power and raising his wRC+ by 17 points in 2007. Thanks to injuries, he cratered in 2008 before going off in 2009, hitting 36 homers and raising his wRC+ by 30 points. In 2010, it dropped again by *37*, thanks to a sub-.200 BABIP. He started well for Toronto, but after being traded to the D’Backs, he cratered again. In his first full year in the desert, though, he again established himself as an offensive force, raising his wRC+ by a staggering 56 points and holding on to some of that before cratering again (!) in 2014. It’s a strange career, is what I’m saying.
Johnson had a great first two full years in Atlanta before his own BABIP-fueled collapse in 2009. He had a huge bounce-back year in 2010, raising his wRC+ by 46 points a year after seeing it drop by 27. He struggled again with the Jays, but had a half-decent year at the plate as recently as 2015. These two players represent a cautionary tale to the idea that development is linear and smooth, or that huge gains in production represent a new skill level/baseline towards which to regress a player.
That leaves Plouffe and Gordon, two hefty corner bats with no physical or swing similarities to Segura, but whose career arcs look pretty familiar. Plouffe was drafted as a SS, but has played mostly 3B in the majors. After a dreadful start, he tapped into his power and had a decent year at the plate in 2012. He couldn’t drive the ball in 2013, but largely figured things out after that. His peaks were never as high as Segura’s, but he also never looked quite as lost as Segura did in 2014-15. Plouffe’s career is like a regressed version of Segura’s, then. There’s some hope that Segura could maintain *most* of his gains, with the recognition that there may be some down years going forward, too.
The more you look at it, the more Gordon seems like the best-case comp, which, again, is weird to say about a small middle infielder like Segura. After being one of the best college hitters in recent memory and tearing through the minors, Gordon hit poorly in his rookie year of 2007. A spike in OBP helped him easily clear the league-average mark in 2008, and seemed to set him on the path to stardom. Unfortunately, everything fell apart in 2009 and 2010, as Gordon struggled mightily at the plate, and was sent to the minors. Part of this was injury-related, as he tore a labrum in his hip in 2009 and broke his thumb in 2010, but even when he was on the field, he looked lost, with subpar power for a corner OF and what looked like a consistently low batting average. Of course, then Gordon posted a brilliant 2011, slashing .303/.376/.502 and raising his wRC+ by over 50 points from his 2009-10 average, and while he slipped back in 2012 a bit, he was a consistently above-average hitter through 2015. Yes, he collapsed again in 2016, but that’s not relevant to Segura in 2016. Gordon’s the best example in recent years of a player who was solid, then bad, then great, and managed to hold on to most of his skill improvements for a number of years.
What have he learned here? 1: It’s actually really tough to find players like Segura and Gordon, who’ve been good, then terrible at the plate, and then great. 2: As you’d expect, most players who have large improvements in their batting line regress in the next year. Many of them were good again in the year after that, but in general, there’s generally a hefty regression tax to pay. 3: We all do it, but player comparisons are necessarily limited; each player is an n of 1. 4: If you want to be pessimistic, these data would seem to support that, but there are still enough Gordons or even Marco Scutaros that suggest Segura can hold on to most of his gains.
Cactus League Game 3: Let’s See Motter
M’s Versus Royals
Yovani Gallardo v. Jason Vargas, 11:10pm. Radio Only. Note the earlier start time.
Yesterday, Shawn O’Malley got to make his case for the utility role, and today the M’s will get a look at newly-acquired UTIL, Taylor Motter. Both were drafted by the Rays, and both have a lot of experience in both the infield and outfield. O’Malley has the incumbent’s advantage, as the M’s staff and front office have seen him play; Scott Servais penciled his name in the starting line-up at *6* different positions last year. On the other hand, Motter is younger and shows a bit more promise with the bat, as indicated in his superior projections and minor league ISO numbers. Motter has much less big-league experience, but he too got starts at 6 different positions last year.
As position battles go, this one doesn’t matter a whole lot. With guys like Cano/Segura in the middle infield and with 5 or 6 guys capable of playing CF already on the roster, you could make the case that this role is LESS important to the M’s than it is to just about any other club. That said, it could be a window into how the M’s make roster decisions and what they value. Taylor Motter’s projections show a player ever so slightly better at controlling the strike zone, but O’Malley is probably the better defender.
Today, Yovani Gallardo makes his first start with the M’s. The trade Jerry Dipoto made to acquire him was panned by most saber-inclined fans. Gallardo’s coming off his worst year as a pro, and after missing time with scary-sounding shoulder pain, you don’t have to be a pessimist to see how this year could go south on him. On the other hand, he recovered after a slow start, and was averaging 91 on his fastball down the stretch, up from 87+ in April. He missed 6 weeks in May/June to recuperate and work on things in the minors, so he may be healthier/more mechanically sound now than he was a year ago. But while he was throwing harder in July/August last year, he was not necessarily throwing better. His walk rate spiked after his return, and while it too was better down the stretch, it highlights the fact that there are multiple red flags with Gallardo. A lot of people are going to be scrutinizing Gallardo this spring, and for good reason.
It’s February, so the temptation to over-analyze is huge, but the M’s rotation is so intriguing, you pretty much can’t help it. James Paxton spent 6 weeks in Tacoma last year, and came up looking unrecognizable – throwing 100, different arm-slot, etc. Felix Hernandez just had his worst season, and spent the offseason working harder than he’s ever worked. Drew Smyly is talented, but coming off a down year and his fourth consecutive increase in HR rate. As a group, there’s a tremendous amount of talent and upside here. There’s also a lot of risk…I mean, even more than you’d have with 5 random pitchers.
I mentioned yesterday that the pitch FX readings on Chris Heston may be more important than for most, as he’s continuing his recovery from TJ surgery. It’s still February, but his old velocity wasn’t back, as he peaked at 89 and averaged about 88. He pitched well, so this isn’t a damning indictment of his 2017 chances, but poring over his numbers has another benefit. As I’ve mentioned many times, Peoria’s pitch FX system is miscalibrated, and has been for years. It seems to be reasonably good for velocity, but the movement numbers frequently take on a surrealistic quality. Sometimes, the natural movement is greatly exaggerated, and you’ll see pitchers throwing fastballs with 20″ to 2 feet of vertical movement. Yesterday, though, Heston threw a slider that went 79mph, had essentially no horizontal movement (so far so slider-y) but 13″ of vertical rise, far more than his average fastball. This is incredibly nerdy, and I apologize to those who’ve read this far, but let me be clear: that pitch is impossible. You can’t throw a pitch that slow with movement like that. But, noting that this pitch does not exist, I’m wondering if we might need to invent it. Some readers might point out that it looks suspiciously like a slow Chris Young fastball; a Chris Young 45 played at 33rpm. That’s true, but as the pitch slows down, gravity has more time to work on pulling it towards the ground. To maintain Young-like rise with 5-6mph off the velocity requires a lot more spin. Ok, ok: long story short: I know it isn’t real, but I would love to see this inverted splitter thing in the wild.
Today’s batting order:
1: Dyson, LF
2: Segura, SS
3: Seager, 3B
4: Valencia, 1B
5: Haniger, RF
6: Zunino, C
7: Motter, 2B
8: Marlette, DH
9: Martin, CF
SP: Gallardo
It’s good to see 2011 draft pick and perpetual marc w fave Tyler Marlette get a look early in camp. Like most of the org, he had a dreadful 2015 and seemed at risk of losing his roster spot, but improved markedly in 2016. He capped it off with a stint in the Arizona Fall League. The catcher figures to start with AA Arkansas this year.
It’s easy to be cynical about Spring Training, pointing out that the stats aren’t predictive, lamenting injury risk, and looking out at a field full of org depth and A-ball prospects by the 6th inning, but M’s prospect Dylan Unsworth provides an antidote in this video from his twitter feed. In it, the 24 year old righty from Durban, SA speaks about his excitement at being called up to his first big league spring training game. Note: he did not play in the game, and we’re still talking about ST, but he got to be in the locker room with Felix, Cano, Seager, etc. While I imagine it can be easy to focus on small improvements and take joy in each promotion, I bet toiling away in the minors can seem pointless at times. A sisyphean torture, in which the high draft pick with worse stats gets the promotion. Every no-bat catcher you’ve ever seen gets to be in big league camp while you strike out this year’s crop of 19-year old Arizona League hackers. I hadn’t imagined, but should of, what it would mean to walk across the parking lot and suit up with the big league club, even just once or twice. The sense of validation, the sense of acknowledgement. The fact that the pre-game spread might actually fill you up and not sink your per-diem might help, too, but maaan. To leave your home, try to make it in baseball while learning a new culture, trying to shut out everyone who’s telling you it’s pointless and you’ll never make it…spring training kind of validated itself the other day. Good luck, Sharkie.
Cactus League Game 2: Position Battle edition
Chris Heston v. Zach Lee, 12:10pm
Yesterday’s game featured a line-up that looked pretty much like opening day’s. That’s cool and all, but it doesn’t tell us a whole lot. Or rather, the utility of seeing Segura hit in front of Cano is balanced by injury concerns. None of those guys are fighting for a job, so it’s just about getting their timing right and giving those of us who’ve missed baseball a sneak preview. For the record, they look good.
Today, though, is different. With Jarrod Dyson on the club, they may not have room on the opening day club for Ben Gamel. Shawn O’Malley’s bid to hold on to the utility spot will get a big challenge from Taylor Motter. Tyler O’Neill’s a long shot to make the club, but he has *a* shot. And as mentioned yesterday, Chris Heston has a lot to prove to get the inside track on the 6th rotation spot. With more time passed since his TJ rehab, we can actually learn something about his arm strength today, too. If he’s still near 88, that’s not great. Above 90, and the M’s may have something.
Zach Lee toiled for Tacoma last year, but it was the worst year in a pro career plagued by inconsistency and mediocrity. His arsenal isn’t as important as the fact that betters hit everything he throws hard. Would a piggy-back rotation help? I don’t know, and would think even the Pads have better candidates for that, but with his prospect pedigree, some player development staff will always give it a chance. If there’s one pitcher who desperately needs a velocity-gain off-season program, it’s Lee.
1: Gamel, RF
2: Valencia, 1B
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Ruiz, C
6: O’Neill, LF
7: Freeman, 3B
8: Heredia, CF
9: O’Malley, 3B
SP: Heston
Cactus League Game 1: It Begins
I’m still not in regular season shape, so some articles on Segura and others will have to wait, but…seriously, there’s a Mariner game on today.
How do I do this again? Oh yeah, that’s right:
M’s “at” Padres
Ariel Miranda vs. Paul Clemens, 12:10pm
It’s not just the M’s, but there’s something comfortable about kicking off the spring with a guy desperately pitching for a job. Erasmo Ramirez did this a few years ago, and ended up winning one…in Tampa. Last year, it was Nate Karns, who went first in a duel with James Paxton for the 5th rotation spot. In a series of events that highlight that spring training means little and that baseball is unpredictable, Karns won that battle, sending the pitcher that many N’s fans consider the team’s ace to AAA to start the year (and gain several MPH on his fastball).
This year, there’s no big competition. Barring injury, the rotation’s set, and all Miranda can do is demonstrate stuff that might play well out of the bullpen or lay claim to the first starter called up from Tacoma. THAT battle is actually going to be pretty intense, with Miranda, Chris Heston and ex-Athletic Dillon Overton all decent 6th-7th starters with a dash of upside.
That’s not completely irrelevant – depth matters – but it’s perhaps not appointment television. And hey, the game is not on TV at all, so…problem solved. (It’s on 710am for those in the Seattle area.) At least for today, the pitching match up will take a back seat to seeing this new-look M’s line up in action. Can Dan Vogelbach play a credible 1B? Is Jean Segura a (permanently) changed hitter? How about this Haniger fellow? Today we get our first, fleeting, often misleading, glimpse at the 2017 Mariners. May the pain of our fandom be different this year; perhaps even constructive.
As usual, the M’s open with stadium-mates, the San Diego Padres. Between a huge sell-off, front office penalties and a reputation for a non-traditional take on rules and ethics, the Padres are in trouble in 2017. Yes, they have a nice farm system, but that’s been true for a while. Unfortunate trades and some player development hiccups left them in bad shape last year, and realistically, they’re not much better in 2017.
As a case in point, ex-Astros journeyman/replacement level hurler Paul Clemens takes the mound today. The righty throws a tailing fastball and a high-spin curve, but hasn’t been able to carve out a real MLB role thus far. His big problem has been the long ball, and since nearly all of them have come off fastballs, it’s better to say that his big problem is his heater. Despite some mildly interesting movement, righties seem to see it really well and habitually bully the pitch. His curve is fine, maybe even good, but he doesn’t (yet) pitch off of it like Rich Hill.
Maybe in an effort to make it more sinker-y, he dropped his arm slot last year. That makes sense, given his particular symptoms, but it didn’t really work: righties still hit him, and if he gave up fewer HRs, well, Petco probably played a role.
This year, the bereft-of-pitching Padres are considering a piggy-back rotation with a number of pitchers working a few innings before giving way to a reliever working a few more. The similarly-barren Rockies tried it – unsuccessfully – in 2012, but it makes some sense for a team that realistically can’t match up to its opponents’ starting pitching. If you can’t beat ’em at their game, change the game sufficiently that you…well, I don’t know exactly. It’s not like their bullpen’s great either. And their problem last year wasn’t so much pitchers tiring and getting hit the 2nd/3rd time through the line up- they got hammered in the first inning. In any event, it’ll be interesting to see if they do implement this strategy, and what it’ll mean for guys like Clemens.
The initial line up:
1: Dyson, LF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Vogelbach, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Martin, CF
SP: Miranda
Go M’s! Stretch properly! Nobody get hurt!