Here’s a link to an article I wrote for Baseball Prospectus last year, profiling Reed, for those interested.
I haven’t been this happy to be an M’s fan in… a year? Maybe more.
I was sitting at the game today when my phone rang. Normally, I don’t answer my phone anyway, and never at games, but it was Jason, and this was more or less our conversation:
JMB: “Dude, they traded Garcia.”
DMZ: “Whaaa?”
JMB: “They got Mig–”
DMZ: “Jeremy Reed! Jeremy Reed!”
JMB: “Yes, they got Jeremy Reed. And Miguel Olivio, and a shortstop– I don’t know who yet. We give up Garcia and Ben Davis…”
DMZ: jaw down, staring out at field, blinking
JMB: “Hello?”
This is the kind of deal we’ve almost never seen the last couple of years: a free agent in their walk year, expensive, traded for several good players. This is the kind of deal I’d expect a sharp, horse-swapping GM like Beane or Shapiro to make… I never would have thought the M’s would pull off a haul like this.
I was at the game, though, in an amazingly good seat. There wasn’t really a crowd reaction to the centerfield video-screen notice. Many more people booed at the end of the game than said anything about the trade at the time. I now present this Triple Play Freddy Garcia Trade Edition of Overheard at the Ballpark ™:
Woman behind me:
“Chicago White Sox? Isn’t that where we traded Guillen?” (DMZ: No, ma’am, that was the Tigers) “Oh, I was thinking he’d be back together with his friend.”
Woman with child:
Woman: “They traded my friend Freddy.”
Child: “Wheeeere?”
Woman: “The White Sox. It was a bad trade, but we’ll see.”
Woman on bus:
“I’m upset. I really liked Freddy.”
I don’t understand that, really. As fans, we’ve come out to the ballpark every game this season and seen an awful, awful team play. They’re old, devoid of power, they play much worse defense than they used to, the lineup’s badly built and managed… if they’d put up an announcement that said “The Mariners announce they have demoted the team and called up the Rainiers” or even “The Mariners announce that they’ve traded their starting nine for Detroit’s starting nine” I’d have shrugged and said “It’s a start.”
Is there really that strong of an emotional attachment to Freddy? If so, why the boos when he struggled for so long?
And considering Freddy was going to leave anyway, and this season was lost, why not trade him?
I wondered, on the bus back home, if maybe the M’s weren’t just blowing smoke about the fans, if they’d done enough surveys and knew their demographic well enough that they’d realized that there would be a significant portion of people upset by any trade of “top” players.
But here’s the other thing. The people who said “that sucks, I don’t know any of these guys” are the same kind of people who bitched about the Randy Johnson trade. I (and, uh, we) get hate mail all the time that says “what the (expletive) do you know about (item) anyway?” But there’s a huge contingent of people who’ll dismiss a trade like this because they don’t know anything. Like if we’d traded Freddy for Nomar and Clemens, or whichever names they recognized, that’d have been fine, but not knowing…
“I see you drive a Chevy Citation. I’ll give you this fine Swedish automobile for it.”
“No, that deal sucks, I don’t know anything about Swedish cars. What’s it called?”
“It’s a Volvo.”
“A vulv–what?”
“It’s twenty times safer, gets better gas mileage, it seats four comfortably, handles better, and can out-accelerate your Citation.”
“No.”
“I can provide you with these handy reviews from leading magazines… government crash test ratings?”
“I like my Citation.”
I want to hook these people up somehow.
“Dear Derek,
I can’t help but notice you once again second-guessed Melvin’s decision to bunt runners over with two outs. Have you considered that he was trying to do the unexpected, in the hopes of future returns? What do you know about managing a baseball game?”
“Dear Reader,
Thank you for your email. Please contact bigmoney0005@hotmail.com, who has given this subject much less thought and has even stronger opinions on the subject.”
Kidding aside, this is good news. It’s not “redeems a disastrous off-season” good news, but it’s far better than anything I’d hoped for, and I’m a happy fan today. I hope now the Mariners will be able to deploy these new guys to take advantage of them and improve the team.
Jeremy Reed… man, that’s cool.
The deal is as follows…
To Chicago: RHP Freddy Garcia, C Ben Davis
To Seattle: C Miguel Olivo, OF Jeremy Reed, SS Michael Morse
Dave will have more to say on this shortly, but from the looks of it, the M’s did very, VERY well.
Freddy Garcia and Ben Davis for Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo, and Michael Morse.
Congratulations Bill Bavasi. Seriously, let me say this again. Congratulations Bill Bavasi. This is probably one of the best player-for-prospect hauls any team has gotten since the Bartolo Colon to Montreal trade. Since the White Sox farm system is essentially based in North Carolina (their Double-A team is the only one not within an hour of my house), I’ve seen all these guys extensively, and this is basically the heart of the Sox system.
Reed is a healthy version of Chris Snelling with a few more walks and a few less singles. Prospectus was a bit nuts when they called him the 2nd best prospect in the game this spring, but he’s legit top 20. He’s got line drive power and a very compact swing, makes great contact, and knows the strike zone. His swing won’t let him develop much more home run power, but his offensive game is tailored for the top of the order. In his prime, he should hit .290/.380/.450, which is a quality player. He’s got a great chance to be the next Rusty Greer. Defensively, he’s a corner outfielder. The M’s might dream that he can fill the need in center, but he just doesn’t have the range to be an asset there. He can play right or left well, and center in an emergency, but they should still be searching for a permanent CF.
Miguel Olivo is a league average catcher right now. He has a bit of a long swing and won’t ever win a batting title, but he has above average power and runs well to boot. He’s hitting .270/.316/.496, making him not only our best catcher, but probably our fourth best hitter. He’s only in his second year, meaning he’s making peanuts for the next two, maybe three years. He’s not the catcher of the future-he’s the catcher of the present. At 25 years old, he still could turn into a Jason Varitek type player.
Michael Morse is a decent hitting prospect with line drive power and a nice swing. He’s also abysmal defensively. I watched him probably 30 times last year in Winston-Salem, and he’s the worst defensive SS I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t have the footwork or instincts to play third, either. He should probably end up in left field or at first base, and there were a few nights I thought he should DH. But the swing was always there, and he’s had a breakout offensive season at Double-A. There are attitude problems involved, though, as he was just suspended for 2 weeks for violating a team rule. He’s never been the hardest worker, and motivation can be a problem. He’s definitely not a choir boy, but he can hit.
Seriously, this trade is so much better than what the Royals got for Beltran it isn’t funny. Reed is now our top prospect, Olivo our best catcher, and Morse is about as interesting a bat as you’ll find in the system, even if he has nowhere to play. Making them pay Ben Davis’ salary the rest of the year is icing on the cake.
Seriously, just a fantastic trade for the Mariners. Great deal, Bill. Very well done.
BREAKING NEWS…
Freddy Garcia to the White Sox. Details to follow.
Driving home from work today, I happened to catch Chuck Armstrong on the M’s pre-game show. When asked about the possibility of bringing up Tacoma 1B/DH Bucky Jacobsen, he said something to the effect of “Well, you can only have one first baseman and DH in the game at once. John [Olerud] looks like he’s turning things around; he had three hits last night.”
First off, Chuck, Willie Bloomquist could have three hits tonight, but it still doesn’t make him a good hitter. Second, Olerud can’t hit lefties and Jacobsen is right-handed.
Armstrong gave a few other maddening answers to some softball questions… but damned if I can remember them now, an hour later. Sorry, dear readers.
Memo to anyone working in the Mariners front office: Opportunity is here.
Today, the Pittsburgh Pirates designated Ruben Mateo for assignment. Mateo was, at one time, the Texas Rangers CF of the future, but injuries derailed his development. The Reds traded for him in their push to get every toolsy outfielder in 2001, but cut him loose after last year, and he signed a minor league deal with Pittsburgh over the offseason. Throughout his major league career, he’s amassed 783 at-bats, posting a .257/.311/.396 line, which is basically a replacement level outfielder.
However, this year, he looks to have made some adjustments. Pittsburgh brought him to the show after he hit .316/.391/.711 in 114 at-bats for Nashville. He proceeded to hit .242/.359/.515 in 33 at-bats for Pittsburgh before he was DFA’d today. He’s showing some patience (17 walks in 147 at-bats), a lot of power, and he can play a solid LF/RF and a passable CF. All this for the league minimum folks. It’s not a stretch to say that Ruben Mateo would instantly become our best center fielder (okay, thats Ichiro, but thats apparently not an option) and probably our 3rd or 4th best hitter. He has more value than about half the hitters on the roster, and is exactly the kind of free talent pickup this team should be looking to make. Make the call to Dave Littlefield and toss them a low level relief arm, like, say, Cesar Jimenez, to make sure no other team claims him on waivers before the M’s get a shot at him (due to the arcane league setup, all the teams in the NL get a shot before any teams in the AL).
Ruben Mateo could help this club now and become a nice role player for the future. He’s cheap and even toolsy. He fills a need, and he’s going to come at a bargain rate. Go get Ruben Mateo.
Somebody emailed us, asking if anyone had heard anything about Rafael Soriano. My personal feeling is that he won’t pitch again this season. In any event, I found this from Sunday’s Everett Herald: Reliever Rafael Soriano has been cleared to begin playing catch,something he hasn’t done since May 12, when he was put on the DL with a strained right elbow. It’s the first time since the injury that Soriano’s elbow was tested and he felt no pain.
So there you go.
Another facet to this is that if this is what Dotel fetches. Dotel got paid $2.8m. Eddie Guardado, left handed established closer type, makes more than that, at $4m. The M’s should be able to get something for Guardado.
You know, I’ve never understood the fascination with Jason Lane as someone the Astros should be clearing 500 at-bats for. Lane is their version of Justin Leone; a nice, above replacement level piece who has proven he has some value, but also has pretty obvious flaws. He’s a great role player, a terrific 4th outfielder, and a nice bat off the bench who adds depth in case of injury. But a starting corner outfielder? He’s hitting .238/.319/.417 this year in his age 27 season. Last year, he hit a pedestrian .298/.374/.452 in the PCL. The year before, he hit .272/.328/.472 for New Orleans. Yes, I know ‘Nawlins is a severe pitchers park, but the road parks in the PCL help even that out. At 25 and 26 years old, he’s put up ordinary numbers in Triple-A, and he’s putting up ordinary numbers in the majors this year during his peak age.
Biggio is clearly outhitting him this year, and deserves to play over Lane. Adding Beltran, who instantly becomes the Astros best player, does not block a potential superstar. He simply shifts a role player back into being a role player, rather than being miscast as a starter, a position he’s never shown he is suited for. For some reason, he’s developed a loyal following of people who apparently think he’s some kind of answer to the Astros offensive woes, but really, he is what he is; a corner outfielder who can hit .270/.330/.450. You certainly don’t let that stand in your way of acquiring Carlos Beltran.
The other prospects in the deal have been named; catcher John Buck and pitcher Mike Wood. None of these guys are going to be significant parts of the next Royals team that contends. Buck is having something of a resurgant year after taking two years off from productivity, and Mike Wood is a RHP without the stuff to stay in the rotation. In exchange for Beltran, the Royals got a middle reliever, a backup catcher, and a third baseman who might be a league average player in his prime. Not exactly a great haul for KC.