Well, the Mariners aren’t worst in the AL, so this isn’t quite the worst v worst matchup it might have been (thank goodness Houston didn’t stick around for another day). And yet…
Friday, 7:05, RHP Franklin v RHP Hernandez.
Saturday, 7:05, LHP Moyer v RHP Vargas
Sunday, 1:05, RHP Pineiro v RHP Armas
Montreal has the worst offense in baseball, Mariners the 26th-best. The Expos, though, have been without Nick Johnson and Carl Everett, among others, while the Mariners really hadn’t suffered much from injuries before Ibanez went out. Still, the gap is so huge that even when I ran some numbers with Ibanez out, the Mariners only dropped one, two slots — the Expos are waayy behind. The park-adjusted gap between the #1 team and an average team is 25-35 runs so far this season, while the difference between those average teams and Montreal is 80-90 runs. The gap between the 26th-best Mariners and the Expos is 50 runs. That’s crazy, how bad the Expos offense has been.
Also, it doesn’t look like Ibanez is going to be back in the lineup in the immediate future. If he’s back in another 10 days, I’d be happy. Hamstring injuries aren’t easy rehabs, either — ask Edgar.
Montreal has a top-five starting rotation, and Livan’s arm still will not fall off, oppenly mocking those of us who worry about pitch counts. “Ha!” the arm says. “I mock your pitch counts and workload statistics!” The Mariners have a middle-of-the-road rotation.
Montreal’s bullpen’s been worse than Seattle’s by a fair sight, but overall, this looks like it’s going to be a low, low, low-scoring series, and the Mariners may well have a chance to threaten the major league scoreless innings streak (43). In fact, they could do it tonight if the game went into Bonus Baseball.
On the continuing Garcia-for-Contreras straight up rumors: I’d make this trade, no additional players involved. But we have to get Cashman for Bavasi too. This isn’t without precedent: Billy Beane was almost traded for Youklis.
In fact, I would trade Garcia and Bavasi for a state-of-the-art GM right now, mid-season, no throw ins required, because the payoff for the rest of the dumping would be so much greater it’d be worth it.
Stark has another column on interleague play and how it’s never ever going away (“Interleague play is now so ingrained in the baseball landscape, you couldn’t uproot it with an earthquake.”)
It’s not. I’m sorry, but it’s not. Nothing is. Sixty years ago, the three major sports in the US were baseball, boxing, and horse racing, and they were insanely popular. If you had told someone then that baseball would have interleague play, they’d have scoffed. Or re-alignment, or… there was a time there was no DH!
In another forty years, we might not have baseball at all. Baseball might be played in regional leagues, or one giant league, or in some kind of nutty round-robin divisionless format Commissioner Selig-Preib comes up with.
I still think interleague play is a crock of crap, but then I once argued that if baseball destroyed itself that might be pretty cool if it meant we got a crop of crazy PCL-type regional leagues across the country. Which must be one of the weirder arguments I’ve ever made, for sure.
Interleague play isn’t any more ingrained and integral part of baseball than the wild card. Things that are part of the game are things like nine innings, three outs a half-inning. Stuff about how the teams are organized, or when and how they play each other? It’s superficial, and to compare it to the three-strike rule is… I don’t know what Stark was thinking.
Yeah, Winn’s got a bad arm he makes up for with bad technique.
Which is weird… some of baseball’s bad habits, I understand — if a player comes up with a weird hitch in their swing and they don’t hit without it, well, maybe they live with it. But stuff like “when you catch the ball, be ready to throw it”? Why couldn’t Winn figure that out? Couldn’t someone tell him? Isn’t that part of Melvin’s job? It’s a thirty-second conversation:
“Randy, I don’t want to embarass you, but you know as well as I do that every team’s starting to run on you. I think they read the U.S.S. Mariner or something.”
“I’ve noticed that, skip. I love their commentary but I wish they hadn’t been so vocal about the advantage to be gained by exploiting my defensive inadequacy.”
“Here’s the thing, Randy. You’re not going to suddenly grow a third arm that’s really good at throwing.”
“I have been trying.”
“It’s not going to happen. What you need to do, Randy, is set up to throw when you can get under a ball and need to throw it back in.”
“Huh? How would I do that, skip?”
“I’m happy you asked. I’ve asked Ichiro to demonstrate.”
“There he is, in right field. I didn’t notice. And hey, you have a bat and a bag of balls here at home plate.”
“Yes. Now watch what happens when I hit an easy fly ball to Ichiro….”
“Wow, skip, I see exactly what you meant! Now maybe I can be as good an outfielder as Ichiro!”
(everyone has a good laugh, fade out)
So let’s talk about something else. I recently off-handedly referred to the A’s draft as a “flop”. I’d like to be a little clearer about that. The A’s draft was obviously not a Mariners-with-Mattox-like disaster. It produced a bunch of productive players. What I meant, and I should have explained this a lot better, is that in many places, not just in Moneyball, their college-heavy draft was held up as an example of a triumph of statistics over scouting, that the tide had finally changed, and the Blue Jays followed in their footsteps, and so forth.
It wasn’t a triumph, by any means. As I’m sure Dave will be happy to explain at length, because he Dave’s forgotten more about the drafts than I’ll ever learn, the great finds the A’s made in going against the traditional scouting views and signed for little money, relative to their position (but not, we should point out, relative to where they might otherwise have been drafted) are almost as a whole not doing well. And relative to the impression you’d get reading the book and the publicity that draft got, the draft didn’t approach the greatness it was set up as.
So flop? Sort of. Not really. If no one had said anything about it: no book, no coverage either way, we’d probably think they overachieved, because Baseball America would have rated it as extremely bad but it’s already looking like there are some good players there.
And to tie this all together with Dave’s post on Neyer’s column: while I’m sympathetic to Dave’s view here, Neyer’s got a point, which is this: “But you read those reports, and you understand just why at least a few baseball executives think they have to add at least a modicum of precision to the process.”
Now, they’re not reports, really, so Rob’s wrong in that sense, sure, but Rob’s right. This is why scouts aren’t respected — the every player carries a team. The descriptions of players as if they’re being introduced in a bodice-ripper of a romance novel (“His tanned, long limbs stretched out before her in a loose, graceful action. Oh, he would put on muscle as he matured, and Melinda saw the man she would make of Gary the Pac-10 shortstop…”). There’s such a wide gap between the “this player can clearly hit .300, because he hits .300 every year” performance analysis and the world of the scouts that it’s hard to meld the two. The language each side uses plays a big role in this. That’s not the issue Rob really raises, but his column demonstrates it clearly.
Now, there’s a legitimate gripe here that Rob’s making fun not of an actual scouting report but sort of a 50-word scouting report summary, but at the same time, that is the kind of language real scouting reports use. And it’s part of what frustrates Beane, who if he got that kind of a report would want to know “Can he hit or not? Because I’m a long-limbed guy with graceful actions, and I sucked.”
He wouldn’t have that reaction of course, because an actual scouting report has a lot more objective analysis, space for ratings, and is a lot longer than 50 words.
Does that make any sense? I feel like I’ve written this whole thing and I still haven’t explained what I meant well enough. Ah well, it’s late, my sleep patterns are totally screwed for this week.
DMZ
So I went to the game last night, and a funny thing happened — a fight broke out in my section. No, seriously. First time I’ve ever seen that at an M’s game, but there it was. I missed the first punch (this all happened about 20 rows ahead of me), but saw the usher go tearing down the aisle and attempt to keep the two guys apart. Unfortunately the usher wasn’t very big, and they managed to get back together. At this point everyone in our section — and on each side — is standing, trying to see what’s going on. Based on the cheers and which guy got dragged out (the other guy was simply escorted), it appears one guy was being a jerk and the other guy finally couldn’t take it anymore. Come to think of it, our entire section (115) was pretty rowdy last night. Apparently this is what I’ve been missing by sitting in the 300 level all these years.
In other news, Jeff Bagwell tagged up on Randy Winn, moving from second to third on a not-so-deep flyball. I know it’s popular to rag on Winn’s arm, but I wonder how much of it is technique — last night, when Bagwell was tagging, Winn didn’t set up the way you’re supposed to. Instead of being in that “ready to throw” position when he caught the ball, he was still drifting back, meaning he made the throw without really being able to step into it and subsequently didn’t get anything on it. In any event, poor technique + weak arm = bad throw.
Yeah, about that PTP.. it’s almost as if one of the authors here wrote it and cribbed off the site and Dave’s stuff in particular… not that any of us are Prospectus authors and particularly familiar with the site, or anything.
(shifts nervously)
Um, I have to go now.
I’ve talked about this before, but I started reading Rob Neyer on ESPNet Sportszone when his column was called Chin Music. Rob and Rany on the Royals was the thing that caused me to send Derek and Jason a line and suggest that we do something like that for the M’s (this was before anyone knew what a blog was). Neyer was my introduction to sabermetrics, for the most part, and like an old friend, he’ll always have a spot in my memories. So, with that caveat out of the way…
This column is a steaming pile of horse crap, and the attitude expressed in it is one of the reasons why statheads have little respect outside of their own community. The scouting reports on MLB.com came from the Major League Scouting Bureau, which was responsible for drafting exactly 0 players. The purpose of the MLSB is to provide a supplemental resource to teams and give them a snapshot of players they can’t scout personally. The MLSB exists to help teams not have to have an area scout in North Dakota, because on the rare occurrance that a draftable player shows up there, the scouting bureau will file a report, which will be seen by all 30 teams, who will then dispatch their own scouts to go work up a profile for their respective team.
The MLSB reports are a service that the major league teams value, and they perform their service perfectly. They aren’t intended as in depth evaluations and no team drafts players based on a scouting bureau writeup. The team’s individual scouting reports are extensive in depth, covering a players skills and abilities as well as his physical attributes. The snippets Rob pulls for this column are essentially introductions, which he then hammers for not being novels. Rob writes introductory paragraphs to his columns all the time, but no one selectively removes those from the whole and rips him for the content of that singular paragraph. Ridiculing a scout for describing a players physical proportions is just stupid; they spend 3 hours watching the kids play, and have plenty of time to write “lean body” on their cards without having it effect their time allotted to evaluating the more important aspects of his talents. Gathering information is good, and criticizing them for taking note of every little thing is short sighted and ignorant.
Put simply, Rob Neyer-and to be honest, almost everyone in the statistical community- completely misunderstands the roles and usefulness of scouting. Every time Rob Neyer writes about scouting, he sets statheads back. Every time someone at Primer or Prospectus write about scouting, I cringe. Its not always bad (Dayn Perry, for one, is good at writing to both sides), but more often than not, its uninformed drivel parroted from what someone else told them. Nobody drafts a player because he has “the good face” or a “high rear”. It’s just one piece of information on a sheet filled with insight that can’t be achieved in other methods, but most of the people beating the sabermetric drum are so eager to look for flaws in the old guard, that they’ll pounce on whatever they can get their hands on.
So, please, Rob, stop writing about scouting. You’re not doing us any good, and you’re not doing yourself any good. Alienating those who can do subjective analysis well doesn’t do anyone any good. The sabermetric revolution may be in full swing, but the condescension that most statheads write with makes me want to join the resistance.
You know, I almost never read Jayson Stark, but for some reason, I clicked on his piece today, and found him calling us brilliant. Well, kinda:
New Yorkers also don’t seem to be noticing the top-of-the-line defense of Mike Cameron in center field. But it’s time to pay closer attention.
The brilliant number-crunchers at Baseball Prospectus just broke down the rate of extra-base hits that are falling in Seattle, since Cameron departed, and in Queens, since Cameron arrived. And this can’t be a coincidence: Projected doubles and triples against the Mets this year: 267 — or 81 fewer than last year. Projected doubles and triples against the Mariners this year: 390 — up 156 from last year.
When informed of those numbers by the Newark Star Ledger’s David Waldstein, Cameron (last seen hitting .196) laughed: “At least I’m doing something right.”
But as hard as it is to quantify the effect Cameron has had on the drop in the Mets’ ERA, teammate Joe McEwing looks at it this way:
“It’s amazing to see how much he’s transformed our team. A year or two ago, if it’s first and second and a guy hits a gapper, we’re down, 2-0, and there’s a man on second, nobody out. This year, a lot of times, that same ball is an out. So now it’s first and second, one out, and a ground ball gets us out of an inning. That’s a potential three-run swing.”
Jason may have seen it in the latest Prospectus Triple Play, but for those who have been reading USSM for a while, you’ve seen us tracking these numbers for months. Nice to see someone letting Cameron know just how much of an impact he’s made out there, however.
At 22-36, the Mariners are the worst team in the American League. Worse than the clueless and inept Devil Rays. Worse than the stalled low-payroll rebuilding of the Royals.
Peter Gammons reported that Bavasi is telling GMs calling about Freddy that he wants to wait a little longer before making any decisions. Now, if that’s because he wants to get the bidding up, I understand, and that might even be smart.
But don’t you suspect that he’s wishing that Garcia would help the team make up some ground, any ground, in the division? That what Bavasi really wants, more than a chance to help the team long-term by making some astute trades, is to salvage any scrap of redemption out of this season to help him keep his job? As if people would say “Boy, that Bavasi.. he made all the right moves but he was sabotaged by injuries and, uh, bad luck. See how the team was starting to play well before he had to make moves? They might have come back.”
And I’ve been reluctant to mention this, but Boone looks a lot less mobile out there at times this year. He’s just not making the fast three, four-step runs to snag balls I’m used to seeing. And then sometimes he flashes the leather, ranging way out to his right and then gunning the ball to first. I don’t know if it’s the injuries he’s been fighting or if he’s flat demoralized and having trouble getting psyched up enough, but… I can’t be the only one who’s seen this this year.
Draft recap
So, draft day one recap, shortened version, because my employers actually expect me to work every now and then.
I’ve been told that there’s almost no chance that the M’s won’t sign Tui. They knew when they picked him that he wanted about $1.7 million, and they’ll give it to him with little haggling. The organization realizes the PR hits they’ve taken this year, and they won’t take another one by haggling over a couple hundred thousand dollars. He’s going to sign. My speculation yesterday was inaccurate.
So, how good of a prospect is he? He gets mixed reviews. There are a lot of things to kinda like, but nothing to love. His defense is probably good enough to handle third base, but a move to the outfield is also a possibility. He’s not playing shortstop in the big leagues. Offensively, he makes decent contact, has some power, and runs well enough, but he’s not a special hitter. He’s pretty raw, and likely a one-level-at-a-time guy, so don’t expect Tui to pull a Felix Hernandez and shoot through the farm system. When asked to compare him to Adam Jones, last year’s ridiculous #1 pick, every scout I asked preferred Tuiasasopo, but with the caveat that neither one is the kind of prospect you want to be the best guy in your system.
The rest of the days haul gets a pretty uninspired yawn. Robert Johnson is a defensive catcher who might hit .270 if he works hard and become a decent backup. Not a great value in the fourth round, and was projected as a 5th-10th round pick on most teams boards. More than one scout described this as one of the biggest reaches of the first day.
Mark Lowe is a Matt Thornton-like project who got drafted on velocity and arm strength. At least we didn’t take him in the first round, but the 5th round was probably too early for him as well. As a draft eligible sophomore, he has more leverage than most 5th round picks, and could go back to school if the M’s don’t offer above-slot money.
Jermaine Brock is a toolsy outfielder who was also scouted as a left-handed pitcher. Another longshot pick, but several other clubs liked his bat too, so the M’s weren’t alone in liking his upside.
Sebastian Boucher is a burner who can just fly. Think Jamal Strong with a worse bat. Probably signs relatively cheaply, so a nice pick in the 7th round.
Marshall Hubbard is just a hitter, and his drafting is a pretty big change from the M’s philosophies of the past, even if he was just an 8th rounder. He’s got a long swing from the left side that can drive the ball when he makes contact, but he’s got no value in the field and would get lapped by John Olerud in a footrace. He’s got a chance to turn into a player the A’s would like.
Steve Uhlmansiek was taken in the 12th round and could be an interesting sleeper. He was a top 5 round pick on talent, but blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery. He won’t pitch again until next summer, and most believed he’d return to school for ’05. However, I’m told there is a good chance the M’s get him signed for a reasonable amount. If they can get him for not-early-round money, its a bargain. This could be the best pick of the day.
The report on the rest of the picks is pretty similar; either easy sign college guys who will be organizational depth with no real future or long-shot high schoolers who aren’t likely to sign.
Considering the M’s didn’t have a pick until the late third round, they did okay. Not a spectacular draft, but an improvement over the abominations of the Frank Mattox era.
Beats another Meche start, for sure.
It was weird to watch Nageotte, because if you watch with eyes open you see everything people laud and caution about him. His breaking stuff is great, and fastball has life. But his location is all over the place, which is cool but also a little scary. You can see how he makes some teams drool, and also why some say he’s got a long ways to go before he’s going to be an effective major league starter.
I hope they keep him in the rotation — the team’s already made some comments about trying to figure out the rotation* — because at least Nageotte’s interesting.
Did it seem to anyone else like tonight’s game just draaaaaaaaaaagged?