“Two runs on a sac fly”, two retorts
Christian Ruzich, of the fine Cub Reporter, writes:
—
I know it was just an off-hand comment, but it got me thinking. I asked the
folks at Retrosheet about two runs scoring on a sac fly and they came back
with a long list (well, OK, nine instances) over the last 30 years where it
happened:
MON@ATL 7/12/75 (2) — marked with hash, may be suspect
TEX@CHA 7/9/79
MIN@BAL 8/26/83 — scoresheet clearly notes 2RBI
CHA@NYA 5/15/83
CHA@TEX 8/19/83 (2)
CAL@CHA 9/15/86
KCA@OAK 9/13/87 — files note fielders collided
DET@TEX 8/12/89
NYA@TEX 7/24/90
It also happened in the 1982 World Series:
“St. Louis was already ahead 1-0. With one out, Moose Haas
pitching for the Brewers, and Ozzie Smith at second and Willie McGee at
third for the Cardinals, Tommy Herr hit a fly ball to deep center that was caught by
Gorman Thomas, who then slipped and fell on the warning track. Smith and
McGee both scored on the play, and Herr got credit for an SF and two RBI.”
—
So it does happen every once in a while, and sometimes requires something wacky to happen. The other rebuttal came from a friend of mine, who wrote “What if it’s a long fly ball to center, fielded by Randy Winn?”
New GM Watch
April 22nd edition
a brief comparison of GMs in their freshman year at the helm of their teams
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Paul DePodesta, Dodgers, 10-4, .714 [last year .525]
Dan O’Brien, Reds, 8-5, .571 [last year .426]
Bill Bavasi, Mariners, 6-9, .400 [last year .574]
Our Atom Feed, so those of you using hip browsers should be able to syndicate us now. Yay.
Updated: now why doesn’t that work? I followed blogger’s instructions exactly. Argh
Allowing for the possibility that I missed an explanation for the late inning bullpen usage by being asleep for the end of last night’s game, it appears that Bob Melvin made his first huge tactical error of 2004 with the way he handled the 9th inning. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that any of the local writers felt necessary to ask him about this, as there is nothing about it in any of the daily papers, so if there is an explanation beyond “Melvin screwed up”, we don’t get to know about it.
Top of the 9th inning, tied at 4: Byrnes, Chavez, Dye due up, with Hatteberg and Durazo the men to drive them in if anyone reaches:
The Mariners best relief pitcher, Eddie Guardado, is left-handed, and hadn’t pitched the day before, ostensibly making him available for work. Guardado is ridiculously tough on lefties, holding them to a .195/.217/.262 mark the past three years, but also is effective against right-handers, as they’ve hit .211/.275/.370 against him. Essentially, he’s a very good reliever that turns left-handed hitters into automatic outs while still holding down righties as well.
The middle of the line-up is coming up in the 9th inning of a tie game, meaning that the Mariners have no possibility of getting a save in this game. They will be the final at-bat, and a save opportunity will never present itself in this game. If Guardado is going to pitch, he will do so in a non-save situation.
Over the past three years, Byrnes has displayed the natural platoon split for a right-hander, hitting southpaws significantly better than like-handed pitchers. He’s hit .282/.328/.500 against lefties, just .242/.324/.427 against righties. Melvin chooses to stay with Mike Myers, his lefty specialist, giving Byrnes the platoon advantage and making it much more likely that Byrnes, the go-ahead run, will reach base. Myers command has always been a problem, especially against right-handers, and he predictably walks Byrnes. Bad Decision #1 by Melvin.
Chavez has some of the most extreme splits in the game. He pounds right-handers to the tune of .306/.375/.579, but lefties have reduced him to a .229/.278/.395 hitter from 2001-2003. Clearly, you want Chavez facing a southpaw in any tight situation. Myers was left in so that he could face Chavez. This is the out they were hoping Myers would get, and they were willing to make it likely that Byrnes reached base in order to bring it up. Chavez illustrates further how poor a decision that was, singling to right field, and moving the go-ahead run into scoring position.
Dye has hit both sides about the same over his career, showing no obvious advantage to the opposition whether they face with him a lefty or righty. His three year splits aren’t as relevant thanks to the broken leg that ruined his last two seasons and clearly don’t represent the type of player he is now. He’s clearly not someone you play the matchups with. However, with Myers failing, Melvin goes and gets Shigetoshi Hasegawa, a right-hander, to face Dye. With the go ahead run in scoring position and nobody out, the Mariners are going to need at least one strikeout, probably two, to get out of this inning tied. So Melvin brings in the pitcher with the lowest strikeout ratio on the staff. Dye predictably crushes a two run double to left. Bad Decision #2 by Melvin.
Scott Hatteberg has hit slightly worse against lefties over the past three seasons, posting a .234/.330/.357 line against them, as opposed to his .257/.358/.404 mark against right-handed pitching. Despite giving up the lead and now facing two batters whom have the platoon advantage against him and could be made significantly less potent by bringing in a lefty, Melvin stays with Hasegawa. Hatteberg reaches on an error by Boone that would have advanced Dye to third regardless. Bad Decision by Melvin #3.
Erubiel Durazo has pretty significant splits as well, hitting .247/.344/.398 against lefties but putting up a .267/.391/.510 line against right-handers. With a big run 90 feet away, a batter prone to striking out, and one who pounds right-handers at the plate, Melvin stays with the non-strikeout pitcher who is right handed, and Durazo predictably drives in Dye from third with a long sacrifice fly, giving the offense yet a harder task to accomplish if this game is to be won. Bad Decision By Melvin #4.
In an effort to hold Guardado back for a situation that was never going to occur, he forfeited the platoon advantage against three hitters with significant splits, with the sole intent being that Mike Myers could face Eric Chavez. He made the likelyhood of every other runner reaching base more likely so that our worst reliever could face their best hitter, when the same advantage could have been earned by simply putting our best reliever in the game to start the inning.
Holding your closer out for a save situation at home when you’re not ahead after the 8th inning is stupidity. You’re essentially telling your best reliever that he won’t pitch in this tie game which could be won by the smallest of margins because there isn’t a magical save waiting for him after he walks off the mound. In the 9th inning of a tie game, when the other team has the heart of their order due up, use your best reliever. This is basic baseball, and Melvin screwed it up about as badly as it could be screwed up. He made the wrong choice on just about every hitter, and the A’s predictably scored three runs and won the game.
I’m not one who thinks Melvin needs to be fired and is a bad manager. I really hope someone sits him down and explains that how he ran the bullpen in the 9th inning last night was just poor strategy, however, and he made it significantly harder for his team to win the game. This is the kind of rookie manager mistake that he shouldn’t be making. Let’s hope he learns from it.
Jim Caple’s got a cool piece on ESPN on how hard it is to hit: he faces Matt Thornton for an at-bat.
Beltran watch: I would include Thornton in a trade for Beltran. And as much as I like him, Jim Caple too, and I hope he takes that in the sense that he’s valuable enough to include in the trade. I would understand if Dave and Jason traded me to a Kansas City blog if it made any difference to getting Beltran here.
Who wouldn’t I throw into the deal, you ask? Here’s a complete list:
Bret Boone
Edgar Martinez
Jamie Moyer
because I think trading any of those guys sets the team far enough back this season that the win-now strategy is rendered moot. Other than that, though, I’d be ready to talk.
People write us and say “what do you think fair compensation would be?”
I don’t think it’s possible for me to answer that, because I’m on one side of the table. This is the effect that makes fans call into radio talk shows and propose totally insane deals like “What if we gave the Yankees John Olerud, Dave Hansen, and a prospect for Jason Giambi? It solves their PR problem, gives them an additional left-handed bat off the bench, and helps rebuild their farm system.”
Hey, Clint Nageotte pitched six no-hit innings for Tacoma last night, walking four and striking out six. Despite the no-no, he was pulled because had thrown 96 pitches. I’m sure he would have loved to finish the game, but there’s no reason to have your top pitching prospect throw 150 pitches. Also nice to see Justin Leone, who’s struggled mightily this season, hit two homers to lead the offense. While we’re on the subject of Nageotte — yes, Kansas City can have him for Beltran.
Also, numerous sources are reporting that the M’s have re-signed C Ryan Christianson, recently waived to make space on the 40-man roster for Aaron Looper, to a minor league deal, but I haven’t found anything official yet.
In my continuing effort to convince the greater world that a trade for Carlos Beltran would put the Mariners in the hunt for the World Series this year, here is update number one on Maybe The Best Player in The American League Not Named Alex Rodriguez:
47 at-bats, 15 hits, 3 doubles, 0 triples, 6 home runs, 15 walks, 8 strikeouts, 6 stolen bases in 6 attempts.
That’s a .319/.492/.766 line to start the year. He’s still playing top notch defense in CF while hitting like Barry Bonds did a few years ago when he was still human. The Royals are 5-8 with with a team ERA of 5.88. Their top two starters, Brian Anderson and Darrell May, have ERA’s of 7.06 and 8.80 respectively. Beltran is not going to re-sign in Kansas City at years end, and Baird will not let him leave without compensation. They have his replacement, David DeJesus, hitting .405/.490/.548 in Triple-A, waiting for a job.
I’m convinced that Beltran can be had, and the Mariners have the right assortment of pitching talent to make a deal work. Beltran makes this team the best in the AL West and, by himself, solves half of the problems on the roster. Get it done, Bill.
If I only had one thing to say about this game, it would be this —
Please, please, please, let Ibanez defy expectations. Let my team win.
Overheard at the Ballpark, April 20th, 2004
“They can score a run with a sacrifice fly. Two, if it’s long enough.”
— with Winn on third and Bloomquist on second
If a sacrifice fly is long enough for someone to score from second, it’s called a home run.
Bonus Overhead at the Ballpark
“He’s turning into Cameron.”
— on Boone’s second strikeout, with a weird bitter twist on the Cameron
I don’t think people are neglecting baseball because they’ve lost faith in the team, but because it’s just not that nice. It gets chilly pretty fast, even with the roof closed, and when I’m seeing my breath in the seventh, and my back starts to stiffen up, I start to think “is this really worth it?”
The difference in temperature on clear and semi-clear nights is noticeable from inning to inning and especially from hour to hour. If the team was really concerned about turnout, they’d schedule early season games a little earlier — shave an hour off, even, start at six, that’s still prime time, and it’s not as if game-day traffic’s going to get any worse.
We managed to avoid extra innings tonight, which is good because staying up for last night’s game and then having to be at work at 6am today was pretty rough. Of course, I work an afternoon shift tomorrow so it didn’t matter too much, but still.
Rauuuuul. What more can you say? He showed no power at all the first ten games of the year, and now all of the sudden he’s Barry Bonds (well, except for the absurd walk totals). Will it continue? Of course not. But enjoy it while it lasts.
Very nice to see the pitching come around during this little streak. I was quite encouraged by Garcia’s performance yesterday — he still could be just teasing us, but 18 strikeouts, 4 walks, 1 homer and a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings isn’t too shabby.
Raul Ibanez is on fire. Credit where its due, but he’s carrying the offense right now.
Great win. 4 straight, including two in a row over Oakland. Welcome to the actual baseball season, folks. Those first ten days were just a bad dream.
It isn’t often that a team will score 2 runs in 14 innings, half of them via a gift balk, and actually impress with their offensive output. While everyone else is jumping on the optimsim train at the Freddy Garcia station, last night’s game represents an improved offensive performance that should cause just as much reason for joy; the team drew eight base on balls and had eighteen baserunners. That only two of them scored doesn’t show a lack of clutchness or any such character weakness, but rather that the A’s pitchers are good, the M’s hitters are average, and things like that will happen in 162 games. Getting a dozen and a half baserunners against Oakland’s pitching, though, that’s cause for celebration.
Also overlooked in the reasons for hope category is the surprising start of Raul Ibanez, at least at the plate. He’s only hitting .238 and his OPS of .829 still wouldn’t be worthy of the contract the M’s bestowed upon him during the offseason, but he’s not performing like the Ibanez that Kansas City had the past three years, and that is actually a good thing. Last year, Ibanez drew one walk for every 12.4 at-bats he had, and 31 percent of his total hits were extra base knocks. This year, in a ridiculously small sample that isn’t significant enough to even predict that the sun will come up tomorrow, he’s walking once every 5 at-bats and 60 percent (6 out of 10) of his hits have been non-singles. Ibanez will likely revert to form, but right now, he’s at least displaying the skills that could possibly make him a useful hitter. Now, if we could just do something about his little league level defense.