Hey all, I’m in Portland for the BP 2004 North American tour Wednesday:
Barnes & Noble @ 7:30 PM
1720 N Jantzen Beach
Portland, OR 97217
503-283-2800
I’d love to meet our Portland readers, and there’s free pizza.
It seems the popular sentiment is that the Indians gave Milton Bradley to the Dodgers on the cheap, including a comment by Steve Nelson equating what the Indians received for him to what the Mariners gave up for Jolbert Cabrera. Steve’s a smart guy, but in this case, he’s not on target. Looper and Ketchner, as discussed below, are fringe prospects. Gutierrez is an upper-tier prospect, similar to Clint Nageotte, in the high-risk, high-reward category. He put up ridiculous power numbers for a 20-year-old in the toughest hitters league in minor league baseball, has showed improved plate discipline, and is athletic enough to be an excellent defensive corner outfielder. Depending on who the player to be named later is, and Mark Shapiro claims it will be “a very good prospect”, the Dodgers likely gave up a better package than if we had offered Nageotte for Bradley. The Indians likely would have been more interested in an arm than an outfielder, of which they have plenty, but getting Gutierrez is a far superior return than Looper or Ketchner. The Indians made a solid move, considering their situation, and I can’t fault Bavasi for not matching the deal the Dodgers made.
I have a slightly different take on the Cabrera trade than most others. I believe there are two different statements, both true, that intertwine through this deal. Most people focus on the first one, but the second one is likely why the Mariners made the trade, and why I don’t really mind it.
1. The Mariners value the wrong type of player and do not understand the principles of freely available talent. They care little for established performance, instead valuing players based on tools-oriented scouting reports, mixing in near-worthless statistics like clutch hitting or saves, and believing that career years demonstrate a players potential rather than an unrepeatable outlier. Cabrera fits all these criteria, as a tools fiend who can play anywhere on the field, but has a long history of being a miserable hitter. He had an obvious career year last year, but the odds of it being repeated are between slim and none. Giving up a cheap arm like Looper and an interesting performer like Ketchner for this type of player simply shows that the team didn’t have the forsight to acquire this type of talent in the offseason, when the price was significantly lower. This constant overpaying for underperformance is going to hurt the Mariners in the long haul.
2. Jolbert Cabrera is now the best player on the Mariners’ bench. As sad as this is to hear, this trade legitimately makes the M’s better. PECOTA’s weighted mean projection for Cabrera is .254/.317/.370. That isn’t a good player, but compare it to the options the M’s were looking at. Bloomquist was tabbed for a .247/.303/.341 line. Ramon Santiago is projected at .248/.317/.339. PECOTA expects McCracken at .259/.310/.366. Cabrera is also a legitimately tremendous defensive outfielder with great range. Ideally, I’d like to see Cabrera platoon with Ibanez against southpaws, with Jolbert taking CF and Winn moving to LF. Against southpaws the past three years, Jolbert has hit .282/.321/.411, which isn’t a great line, but beats the tar out of Ibanez’s .253/.294/.399 line, and he’ll add a significant defensive upgrade.
Cabrera’s strengths — hitting southpaws, defensive prowess in the outfield — were glaring weaknesses for the M’s. If properly used, Cabrera should make the M’s a better team in 2004. Even if Melvin refuses to platoon Ibanez against lefties, we have to assume that any playing time Cabrera receives is going to be taken away from inferior players, and that in and of itself is a good thing. There is always the possibility, however slight, that last years improvement was more sustainable than we think, and if Cabrera can come close to anything resembling his 2003 numbers, he’s going to be a very nice addition to the team.
Also, there’s been quite a bit of hand wringing over the decision to trade Aaron Looper and Ryan Ketchner. Looper is being described as a major league ready arm, and Ketchner’s tremendous performance last year in the California League is causing others to claim we traded away a legitimate top prospect. In reality, both of these players are easily replaceable parts with suspect value on the trade market. Ketchner was ranked 19th on the most recent Future Forty, while Looper was right behind him at number 20. Ketchner’s stuff is so underwhelming that even the most optimistic supporters compare him to Craig Anderson, who posted similar numbers in class-A ball before turning into a pumpkin against better hitters. Looper, likewise, lacks an outpitch and has posted ERA’s not matched by his peripheral numbers. He’s a decent option for a team looking for a long reliever at the league minimum, but he’s also a member of the biggest club in baseball; The Below Average Right-Handed Relief Pitcher. You’ll find card carrying members of this club on street corners asking for handouts. You’ll run into six of them at the grocery store. You’ve probably been mugged by one. These guys are everywhere. Losing one isn’t that big of a deal. There are approximately 2.4 million more where he came from.
Now, we all realize that Looper is better than Kevin Jarvis, and in an ideal world, the team would have dumped Jarvis months ago. But this isn’t an ideal world, and we have to realize that this organization was not going to do that. So, in the context of the M’s and the people making the decisions, they traded two bit parts not likely to make an impact in ’04, and only moderately likely to have future value, for someone who instantly became their best reserve and a passable option as a platoon partner for two players who badly need platooning.
Does this trade continue to signal that the Mariners are unable to correctly assess the market for talent and place value on things that aren’t valuable? Sure it does. Does throwing a million dollars at Jolbert Cabrera strike of fiscal irresponsibility on a team that complains over every bonus earned by their stars? Absolutely. But in the end, this trade makes the Mariners better this year, and we have sorely lacked transactions where that was the bottom line. We should be grateful that the M’s improved their chances of winning the division, no matter how slight, because we haven’t had an opportunity to say that after many of the transactions this year.
And so it begins. Billy Beane protege Paul DePodesta — who, I might add, the M’s didn’t even talk to about their vacant GM job despite the fact that he wasn’t under contract at the time — first fleeces the M’s out of two pitchers for Jolbert Cabrera and now adds an All-Star caliber center fielder. In Franklin Gutierrez, DePodesta traded away exactly the sort of prospect you might expect he would — a toolsy outfielder with poor plate discipline.
This isn’t to say he’s not a good prospect, but it’s not as if the Dodgers traded away a can’t miss, top-shelf sort of talent. In any event, the M’s could/should have been in on this one.
Rounding out the weekend’s news, if you haven’t already heard: Bloomquist and Cabrera both make the team, Santiago sent to Tacoma. As expected, Myers gets the last bullpen spot and Mulholland gets released. I’ll have a new Big Board up to reflect all these moves in the next day or so.
What sort of a bad joke is this?!
(I’d provide a link, but there doesn’t appear to be one yet.)
To Los Angeles: RHP Aaron Looper, LHP Ryan Ketchner
To Seattle: UT Jolbert Cabrera
You don’t trade two young pitchers for 31-year old no-hit utility players. Cabrera is the kind of guy you pick up off the waiver wire, or sign to a minor league contract after the season if you really want him around. He’s a .253/.303/.353 career hitter in 932 major league at-bats. He doesn’t draw walks. He has no power. He’s not a good base stealer. But hey, he played every position but pitcher and catcher last season and hit an empty .282, so he’s just our sort of player!
Gimme a break.
Look, it’s not that it’s that big a deal to lose Looper and Ketcher. Looper’s a decent middle relief prospect, but not much more, though on some teams he probably would have made the major league club this year. I’m biased in Ketchner’s favor because he’s deaf and and has posted great ratios in the minors, but he doesn’t exactly have the blazing stuff scouts get excited about.
It’s the principle of the thing, though. You don’t have to trade for guys like Jolbert Cabrera; they’re freely available. And you certainly don’t trade two young arms to get him.
More Spiezio… this PI article says Bloomquist will start opening day. That’s nothing big, but it also says he (Bloomquist) wasn’t going to make the team if not for Spiezio’s injury. I don’t know that I believe that, but it’s certainly nice to hear. Also, given their plan to carry 12 pitchers — I’m still not sold on this, by the way — it sounds like he’ll (Spiezio now) start the year on the DL, because otherwise the bench would be too thin.
Back to this Bloomquist-Santiago thing — the Times article Derek linked below says Spiezio’s injury means Santiago makes the team, while the PI article I linked above says it means Bloomquist makes it. Interesting; you’d figure they’d have a consensus, since these beat reporters are more than likely talking to the same people.
Everything we’ve all read said that Mike Myers had to be notified by yesterday afternoon whether or not he’d made the team, but I heard yesterday that he actually had the right to ask the M’s if he had made it (and if not, he’s allowed out of his contract). In any event, nothing definitive has been accomplished on that front, though with him pitching so well this spring (no earned runs in eight appearances) I have to figure he thinks he’s made it.
OK, one last thing — this MLB.com article, which is a bit more recent than the Times or PI, says it’s more than likely that Spiezio will be placed on the DL retroactive to March 28. It also says Kevin Jarvis is going to make the team; ick.
The opening day roster must be set by 9pm tonight.
Spiezio is out with back spasms, I hear (and I found that link just now — I’m actually not even on the continent, so news is spotty). I don’t think Spiezio’s any great shakes, but I’m interested to see how Bavasi and Melvin work around this if it’s a long-term problem on and off (as back issues are prone to be). If it would tie down Bloomquist to third, thus limiting his utility as a multi-position scrub, would they entertain bringing Leone up to keep Bloomquist as a floater?
For those who missed it last year, here is a piece Alan Schwarz did on Milton Bradley. Schwarz is probably my favorite baseball writer, and this article is one of the reasons why. He does not deny that Bradley is a jerk and treats people like crap, but also helps you understand that there is a reason for his actions. It doesn’t give him a free pass-he’s still responsible for choosing to be a prick-but it helps provide context.
While this is all idle speculation, I have to think the Mariners, if interested, could come up with one of the more attractive packages of any team courting Bradley. Most of the rumors floating around are not realistic scenarios, and do not address the issue of the Indians receiving players in return they can use. While the M’s would certainly be better off throwing Quinton McCracken into any deal for Bradley, Cleveland has no need for outfielders, as it is their position of greatest depth in the organization. And while every team seeks pitching, the Indians also have several handfuls of mid-level arms that they’re going to have to find room for on the 40 man roster after this year, and will be likely be more interested in quailty than quantity. They have a plethora of guys like Baek and Livingston, and finding spots in their minor league rotations would become an issue.
So, what do the Indians need?
1. A frontline, major league ready starter.
2. Offensive middle infielders.
3. Catching depth.
Realistically, I believe they would ask for Nageotte in any trade. The asking price last summer was “Nageotte plus one or two others”, but he was reportedly the key piece. Due to this latest blowup, I have to imagine the price would be a bit lower, and the Indians would be tempted by a Nageotte for Bradley offer. And I would do this in a heartbeat.
Realistically, Nageotte is very high risk prospect. His mechanics are questionable, especially the somewhat awkward landing of his front foot that can cause his release point to slip. He relies heavily on his slider and has accumulated a large workload the past two years. His command is still a work in progress and he doesn’t have a major league changeup. Right now, he’s closer to Jeff Nelson than a staff ace. The potential is certainly there, and teams love his combination of velocity, wicked slider, and great strikeout rates. But there’s a very high probability that Nageotte’s stock will go down before it goes up, and this is likely one of the best times to trade him. I know the M’s love pitching, but Nageotte is not the kind of once-in-a-lifetmie talent that you refuse to move, and Milton Bradley is an established major league star at a position of need. I absolutely make that trade.
If, however, the M’s decide Nageotte is off the table, I still believe they could get the deal done. A package of Jose Lopez, Rene Rivera, and a midlevel arm (Looper, Putz, or Cate, for instance) could appeal to Cleveland. Despite the positive press he’s been getting this spring, scouts are still split on Lopez, and he doesn’t have minor league numbers that a good organization like Cleveland often looks for. There are quite a few holes in his game, and whether Bob Melvin thinks he’s going to be an all-star or not, he doesn’t have as much trade value as most believe. Rivera is an intriguing prospect, but again, someone you can give up in a deal for a player like Bradley.
Certainly, both of these options would appeal to the Indians moreso than some of the other rumored packages floating around the internet. It is clear that the M’s have prospects at areas of need that would interest Cleveland. It will be interesting to see just how aggressive the front office is in using those pieces to obtain a player that could make the difference in the A.L. West.
This is a no-brainer. If Milton Bradley is available on the cheap, you do everything in your power to acquire him.
Because there are still some unanswered questions about his character I’d be hesitant to include the likes of Clint Nageotte or Travis Blackley, but the Indians can have pretty much anybody else they want. Rett Johnson, Aaron Looper and Ryan Franklin? Sold. Cha Baek and Bobby Livingston? You got it. Bobby Madtrisch and Troy Cate? Deal.
C’mon, M’s, make it happen.