Okay, I know I was just saying a few weeks ago that none of the stuff Melvin tells the press matters, and I still believe that, but now we’ve got this:
Outfielder Eric Owens, who signed a minor league contract on Feb. 10, threw his bat into the ring Wednesday afternoon. Owens hit a solo home run to left-center field in the second inning as the Mariners defeated the Angels, 7-1, at Tempe Diablo Stadium.
Owens, 33, heated up last season about the same time the Mariners turned cold. The right-handed hitter batted .355 (33-for-93) with the Angels last season after August 1.
“We brought him in with the possibility of him making (the team),” Melvin said.
We covered this when Owens signed, but there’s absolutely no justification for a major league team with any intentions of achieving anything but a high draft choice carrying Eric Owens on their roster. During the prime of his career, he sucked, and that was three years ago. He’s declined from Replacement Level Roster Filler into Completely Worthless Waste Of Time. And now he’s being considered for a roster spot becuse he got hot after the Angels were out of contention last year and whacked a home run in spring training? This is clear evidence of an inability to judge talent.
Quinton McCracken has the lock on one of the reserve roles as the fourth outfielder and Dave Hansen figures to be a sure thing as a backup infielder and primary pinch hitter.
Here’s the question of the day, but who on earth is Dave Hansen going to pinch hit for? Keep in mind that he’s utterly useless against left-handers, so he would only be brought in to a circumstance where a right-hander is on the mound and presumably won’t be lifted for a one out lefty. Among the regulars, the catcher of the day is the only player who hits right-handers worse than Hansen, and managers almost never pinch hit for their catchers, fearing a situation where the backup gets injured and the team has no alternatives. So, the primary pinch-hitter will only be used in situations where he’ll decrease the likelyhood of the team scoring runs. Brilliant! Moving on…
That leaves Owens competing with Willie Bloomquist, Ramon Santiago and Hiram Bocachica for two roster spots, although Bloomquist actually has a grip on one of the roster spots.
Bocachica has come out of nowhere to put himself into the picture, going 4-for-12.
“You can throw him in the mix,” Melvin said.
If Eric Owens has degenerated into a Completely Worthless Waste Of Time, and he’s still twice the player Hiram Bocachica is, then I’m out of not-too-witty slurs on untalented players and have nothing to say about Bocachica even being considered for a spot on the roster. In 314 major league at-bats, he’s posted an on base percentage of .261. But, hey, he’s 28, maybe he’s due for a career year. He only has to beat that .233/.287/.376 line he posted back in 2001. Consider this; the Detroit Tigers lost 119 games last year, and even they only found him fit to earn 22 at-bats on their roster. He rewarded them with 1 base hit. And for hitting .045/.045/.091 for the worst team we’ve ever seen, he has a chance to make our roster. I’m at a loss for words.
Now, none of this is likely to have any impact on the 2004 season, since I can’t imagine that even our braintrust would carry Bocachica or Owens for long enough to do any real harm. But, to those who still hold out hope that we’re wrong about Bill Bavasi and he has some kind of master plan that is only apparent to those with rose-colored glasses, please, let us know exactly where these guys fit in that plan. How does having two of the worst players in any spring training camp fighting for roster spots on a team built to contend make this team better? How were they unable to find anything resembling a major league player with their non-roster invitees? What part of the plan necessitates wasting spring training at-bats on washed up players who never had a prime?
As hard as we’ve been on Bill Bavasi, it is quite possible that we’ve overrated his abilities as a GM. He might not just be the worst talent evaluator in the game today. There’s a fighting chance that he’s the worst talent evaluator in the greater Seattle area, which includes my Mom and her innate ability to predict Dan Wilson’s next hit is just around the corner because “he’s due.” Don’t like statistical analysis? Fine, I have no problem with that. Think there’s more to the game than numbers and offensive production? Great, I agree. But I can’t imagine that even those whose sole point is to be contrarian for the sake of it can find anything positive to say about the fight for the last few spots on this roster.
Am I the only one who really wants Griffey back, no matter the cost?
Aw, hell, who am I fooling? I was going to take the other side on this one for the sake of discussion, but I just can’t do it. I expect that he’ll have one more good season (meaning he stays healthy and hits well) before his current contract is up, but other than that, I think he’s just about done. Griffey was great when he was here and I’m glad I was able to watch him all those years, but it just doesn’t make sense to take on his injuries or his contract, regardless of how many fond memories you or I might have of him in an M’s uniform.
In other news, remember how Ben Davis is supposedly being given a chance to win the starting job this spring? It’s not going well so far, as Bob Melvin has chosen to publicly rip him for his pitch-calling in Monday’s loss to Anaheim. “Maybe the pitch selection wasn’t good, with back-to-back changes when the guys were behind (on his fastball) the whole time. We have a guy behind the plate (Davis) who’s got to know that.”
Call me crazy, but I’ve never seen the good in this kind of thing. If Melvin has a problem with Davis, he should take it up with him in the clubhouse, not in the media.
To hit the PECOTA point briefly — the system goes through and finds comparable players through a number of factors and then comes up witha probability curve. PECOTA’s found a bunch of guys who collapsed at that point in their career and those guys, as a group, didn’t come back. It’s worth noting that the guys PECOTA found aren’t particularly good matches — the best one, Duke Snider, is decent, but as a whole it’s not particularly convincing. PECOTA notes this, but for what it does give us, it figures Griffey’s ready for someone to stick a fork in him.
To mention Snider, though — looking at that career fall apart is just plain ugly. At this Griffey point in Snider’s career, he played 85, 80, 129, and 91 games before he was out of baseball at the age of 37, and while he was productive when he was playing, he wasn’t the player he’d once been.
I wouldn’t take Griffey back unless the price was close to free. There’s definately an upside there, but at what cost? Right now it’s a bad substitute for the Omar trade: the team trying to bring back an expensive, damaged, ineffective, once-popular player who once had better days here in Seattle. This is the kind of move the team should absolutely not be making. We can only hope the doctors are able to stop the insanity again if it comes to that.
A few followups on the Jr. post from yesterday.
1. The popular sentiment seems to be that he can take over as DH next year after Edgar retires, and that he’d be more healthy and effective as a full-time DH. First off, we have no evidence that this is true, as he’s incurred several injuries running the bases. We also have no knowledge of whether Jr. would even want to DH, and there’s not enough evidence of anyone improving as a hitter simply because they’re asked to put their glove away to believe that its an actual effect of becoming a DH.
2. I agree that PECOTA’s projections for Jr’s playing time is low. We can’t assume that there is no scenario in which he will stay healthy. The fact that injuries have shortened his last three seasons (which are what influence PECOTA the most) expose a flaw in the system.
3. How frustrating would it be to watch Carlos Beltran sign a 5 year, $65 million deal next winter, taking him through the prime of his career as one of the elite all around players in the game, while the M’s fail to get involved because of the millstone that is Griffey’s contract? When rationalizing a Griffey acquisition by saying that he’s the best available player now, realize that far superior players will be available in the not too distant future, and will almost certainly command less money.
In non-Griffey news, Jeff Shaw rebutted my critique of Ralph Wiley and launched his own offensive against the worst that ESPN.com has offered up recently. My main issue with Wiley is that he’s more of an advocate than a columnist. Nearly all of his offerings flow through the filter of a minority who feels oppressed by ‘the man’ (despite the fact that he’s employed by ‘the man’) and needs to defend his brothers, regardless of the circumstances. I’m expecting a Wiley piece in the near future explaining why Terrell Owens is being robbed of his “right to pick where he wants to play”, despite the fact that he’s not a free agent, thanks to the failings of his agent. Just another instance of the big mean white man holding down the brother, right Ralph?
And, after today’s piece (which I won’t link to, because I don’t want anyone subjecting themselves to it on my account), Ryder has built himself his own wing in the discussion. Forget Damon Stoudamire; I demand a drug test on Rob Ryder. And an apology from whoever green lighted his column. Just painful.
As for Easterbrook, I’m convinced that he’s only written one column in the history of TMQ. Each week, he simply updates his template with new names and scores and hits submit as an original entry. Stop me before I blitz again, indeed.
We now resume our regularly scheduled Mariners talk.
So, Bob Finnigan is rumor mongering about his favorite story again. With as many times as he’s tried to bring this thing back from the dead, you’d think he laid $1,000 on a 100-1 longshot in vegas that Jr finishes his career with the M’s. Or, perhaps, he just enjoys writing speculative columns with no real substance? Regardless of his motivation, he has drug up this same tired column one more time, which always leads to a lot of emails asking if we think trading for Griffey would be a good idea. In a word: no freaking way. Okay, that’s three words, but you get the point. Here’s the basics:
Griffey has five years and $66 million remaining on his contract. While over $6 million per year is deferred from 2009-2024, his salary would count against the budget at $12.94 million per season, while the actual payout would be around $7 million per year during the length of the contract. The contract will keep Jr playing from his age 34 through 38 seasons, also known as the precipitous decline phase of one’s career. Considering the current market, it should be clear to just about everyone that Ken Griffey Jr. would not have received a 5 year, $65 million contract if he was a free agent. Clearly, acquiring this salary would be overpaying for name recognition. However, this team is in a unique situation with a rapidly aging roster that is trying to squeeze one last grasp of air before the window slams shut and rebuilding becomes the term du jour in Seattle. So, overpaying now could be justifiable if the reward was great enough. So, let’s examine what Jr would bring to the club over the next five years, ignoring his albatross of a contract for a moment.
His performances since the trade to Cincinatti expressed in At-bats/BA/OBP/SLG:
2000: 520, .271/.387/.556
2001: 364, .286/.365/.533
2002: 197, .264/.358/.426
2003: 166, .247/.370/.566
He was still an elite player in 2000, though 2001 saw a pretty decent decline in both playing time and production. 2002 was the worst year of his career, as he was a league average player who only managed two months on the field. He played even less last year, though he was certainly a better player than the year before. The dwindling playing time is an obvious trend, and going into his age 34 season, it cannot be ignored. This is clearly a player that you can not depend on for a full season of play. To carry a player like this, you would have to have a capable backup whom you are comfortable giving 300-350 at-bats a year too. Quinton McCracken is not that player.
What have other players with similar skillset and health problems done from their age 34-38 seasons? Bring on the PECOTA projections. For 2004, its projecting a .264/.359/.499 season, good for a .291 EqA, but only expecting 218 at-bats. The best case scenario calls for a .301/.398/.595 season in 267 at-bats, and that is given only a 10 % chance of occurring. His five year forecast projects his EqA’s to hold steady for the next four years (.291, .285, .288, .285) before falling off a cliff in 2008 (.266). Considering a .260 EqA is league average, he’s expected to be a quality offensive contributor, but not a star, when he’s on the field. To put a ~.290 EqA in perspective, Randy Winn’s was .298 in 2002 and .283 in 2003. John Olerud posted a .284 EqA last year. While both players were nice hitters, acquiring another hitter with the value (even if it comes in a different package) of Winn or Olerud isn’t exactly the superstar acquisition fans have been clamoring for.
The rumor Finnigan floats is a straight up Winn for Griffey trade, which is insane financially, but we’re ignoring that part right now. Would this actually help the 2004 Mariners?
PECOTA hates Randy Winn, projecting a big dropoff this year, expecting a .275/.336/.413 season that would give him a .268 EqA in 471 at-bats. This would leave about 130 at-bats for Quinton McCracken in CF, who is projected at .259/.310/.366 for a .244 EqA. Combining their performance into a 600 at-bat tandem, the M’s could expect a .263 EqA from the duo in 2004. How many AB’s would Griffey have to take up to improve the team’s performance in CF?
300 AB’s for Griffey: .264 EqA from CF tandem
350 AB’s for Griffey: .271 EqA from CF tandem
400 AB’s for Griffey: .275 EqA from CF tandem
450 AB’s for Griffey: .279 EqA from CF tandem
500 AB’s for Griffey: .283 EqA from CF tandem
Realistically, Griffey would have to get at least 400 to 500 at-bats to make the move from Winn to Griffey a significant one when only factoring in their offensive contributions and completely ignoring the contract differences. While I’m certainly no fan of Randy Winn in center field, Griffey has lost enough range to be even worse, making the potential upgrade even harder to attain.
Essentially, the only way a Winn for Griffey trade would actually make the Mariners a better team in 2004 would be for Jr. to get at least 400 trips to the plate, something he hasn’t done since 2000. This analysis just takes into account this season, ignoring the fact that Griffey is likely to decline each of the last five years of his contract, and be a league average player by the time he’s off the books in 2008. Considering his vast health issues, he may have an earlier end than even the conservative forecasting systems project.
Bottom line: Ken Griffey Jr has some potential to improve the club this year, if he can finally stay healthy enough to play in at least 70 % of the team’s games. However, the improvement wouldn’t be nearly as significant as people assume, and there’s a strong chance that he won’t stay healthy. In return for taking on this potential one-year improvement, the M’s lock themselves into paying a declining player a superstar salary to watch him wither into a part-time asset.
If the Mariners traded Winn for Griffey straight up, and the Reds didn’t eat a humungous portion of his contract, this would go down as perhaps the worst trade in franchise history, crippling the club’s budget for four years while providing minimal hope of improving the team in 2004.
Just walk away.
I’m back from Arizona without much to report. The M’s lost both games I saw, including yesterday’s shelling (during which I got too much sun), but that’s not really a concern for me (the game, not the sun). It shouldn’t be for you either — spring training sample sizes are so small it’s not a good idea to get too excited or too down about them. That roster spots are decided every spring on the basis of ten innings pitched or 35 at-bats… it’s silly.
In other news, it appears BP ’04 hasn’t quite made it to the greater Phoenix area. Amazon.com, here I come.
I got my favorite bobblehead from one David Cameron, who is a fine fellow and highly recommended.
I didn’t ask my Barry Bonds bobblehead any other questions. I try not to bug him too much out of respect.
I got my copies of Baseball Prospectus 2004 today. Really good stuff, and if I may say so, I think our minor league coverage reflects the oustanding input of one David Cameron, who is a fine fellow and also does things like give me a Barry Bonds bobblehead doll for my desk. The Mariners chapter is really good, and I agree with the comments almost entirely.
An interesting point for M’s fans is that Dan Wilson makes an unlikely appearance as the best catcher at controlling the running game last year in an excellent back-of-the-book essay. I maintain that this is because he caught Jamie Moyer all year long, essentially making 40% or so of his catching duties a tandem with a crafty left-hander who controls the running game pretty well himself. I emailed Keith Woolner to note this, and Woolner pointed out that he had in fact already thought of that and noted that problem in his essay.
I tell you this only to point out that
a) I’m really dumb sometimes and
b) the book is 600 pages long, and it’s probably best to read it in small bites so you don’t miss something that’s right in front of you.
[Shameless plugging ahead]
It’s the best book we’ve ever put out: the essays are all good this year (whereas before, there’ve always been a couple I thought weren’t worth it) and even the boring teams get insightful essays.
The production problems were strange: Amazon had the wrong listing (as if we were with our old publisher, at the old, higher price) for a long time, and then B&N canceled everyone’s preorders for no good reason, so everyone went to Amazon and ordered through there… and then what actually happened as it rolled off the presses was even weirder: a week ago the first people got a hold of their copies (the first Amazon reviews went up on Feb 26th), some people got their books w/o Amazon sending a shipping notification. Some distributors were shipping it out w/24 hour delivery a week before my Amazon order got to me (today). I saw 3 copies on the shelves of a local Barnes and Noble this morning, but a Borders told my friend they wouldn’t have it for a month. So our Amazon reviews have one guy complaining he didn’t have it, and another accusing us writing shill reviews..
I don’t understand book distribution at all.
The best part though is that it’s $12.57 at Amazon — that’s almost nutty-cheap. When we switched publishers we wanted to lower the cover price, and now it’s 600+ pages of baseball goodness for twelve bucks and change… that’s pretty freaking cool.
Now, Derek, where’d you get said bobblehead again?
Intriguingly, my Joe Crede bobblehead (don’t ask) has much the same response when I ask him if he’s clean, on the juice, or knows where the weapons of mass destruction are hidden. He’s quite the agreeable fellow.
Ralph Wiley is insane, by the way. He and Rob Ryder are in a dead heat for worst columnist in the history of ESPN.
Two things —
I recommend Ralph Wiley’s column on Barry Bonds and the steroids controversly over on ESPN.com. Except, obviously, when he makes the bizarre statement about statheads turning on Bonds, which is.. I don’t get what Wiley has against statheads, but he needs to get over it. Reading someone when they make such an obviously dumb statement is like watching them drive a stake into the ground and pound a sign that says “my knowledge stops here” into the stake.
I asked my beloved Barry Bonds bobblehead if he was clean and he nodded enthusiastically. You can take that as you will.
Hey everybody. I’m off to spring training this evening, so don’t worry if I don’t post (though Derek and Dave have quite the entertaining discussion going right now). On the other hand, I might have some ‘net access while I’m down in Arizona so you never know. In any event, if I see anything interesting/cool/noteworthy I’ll try to pass it along. Just as a preview, I’m sure Saturday afternoon will be spent trying to find a place to watch the Stanford-Washington game (go Dawgs).