The issue with Cirillo is that he’s viewed as such a huge disappointment that it’s hard to see past the money and gap between being the pay and value. People look at Cirillo and see a huge $ that can’t swing a bat, and when they look at Willie they see a young, smiling local boy. Here’s the actual situation, though: the team’s paying both of them either way. If Cirillo was an upgrade on Bloomquist and made $20m/year, while Bloomquist made $1/year, the team is still better playing the massively disappointing Cirillo over Bloomquist if doing so makes the team on the field better. The team, and fans, need to regard players as two separate and distinct things:
– their ability to contribute on the field
– their off-field cost and value relative to cost (which is trade value)
Apparently I spoke too soon. The most unbelievable boxscore line of the season did happen last night, but it wasn’t courtesy of John Mabry — instead, it comes to us from Omaha, where Tacoma’s Jamal Strong hit two homers yesterday. Entering the game, Strong had two homers in his entire minor league career (a span of 355 games).
Tonight’s game produced the most unbelievable boxscore line of the season to date:
AB R H RBI BB
J Mabry, DH 1 0 0 0 4
Who walks John Mabry four times?!
Three cheers for Julio Mateo and Rafael Soriano. Is there a more underrated reliever in baseball than Mateo right now? His only flaw is his tendency to give up the long ball, and even that has been curtailed lately. Look at his monthly splits:
April: 12 2/3 IP, 10 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 11 K, 2.13 ERA
May: 13 1/3 IP, 15 H, 5 HR, 4 BB, 10 K, 6.75 ERA
June: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 K, 1.50 ERA
July: 15 2/3 IP, 11 H, 1 HR, 0 BB, 15 K, 1.15 ERA
He was tateriffic in May, but he’s been lights out the rest of the year, and he’s been unreal the past two months. Righties are managing just a .179/.273/.231 line against him. Remarkably, he’s pitched this well despite not being spotted solely against right-handers. I have few issues saying Mateo is a better reliever than Jeff Nelson right now.
I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be up in arms about the Pirates trading 3B Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs today. After all, he’s 25, has some power, and is having a reasonable season with a .283/.333/.453 line. However, Aramis Ramirez just isn’t that good, and I won’t lose any sleep over not acquiring him.
He’s on the hook for $6 million next year, which is no small chunk of change. This is the same guy who hit .234/.279/.387 last year, has awful plate discipline, and boasts a career .313 on base percentage. He’s also right-handed, and does most of his damage versus lefties, making him a poor fit for the M’s needs. The real kicker, though? He’s a butcher in the field. I’d project him to hit something in the range of .250/.305/.430 as a Mariner, making him worth about 15 more runs than Cirillo offensively over the course of the entire season. There’s almost no doubt in my mind, however, that Cirillo’s glove is more than 15 runs better than Ramirez’s, and I’m not sure Cirillo isn’t a better fit for this team than Ramirez is.
Of course, that comparison would require Melvin to actually play Cirillo, who is stil the best third baseman on the roster. Consider, since Willie Bloomquist took over:
The Mariners are 3-5 against bad opponents.
They have allowed 45 runs (and counting) in 9 games
They have allowed double digit hits in 5 of the 6 games on the current road trip.
The carcas of Mark McLemore being allowed to play shortstop has something to do with the truly godawful defense we’ve gotten from the left side of the infield the past week, but Bloomquist isn’t helping with his glove at third base, either. Oh, and he’s 3 for 21 since the Tampa Series ended. Guess this small sample doesn’t count, though, right, because we all want Wee Willie to succeed.
Put Cirillo back in and be done with it.
I want to say something interesting and insightful today, but don’t have any great ideas. I’m worried about Meche. I’m disappointed that this team is so badly constructed, so lacking in depth. I liked reading the trading deadline preview, and I also know none of it’s going to happen.
I understand that teams operate under a much greater burden of caution than we do. Almost every organization is reluctant to make a move: there has to be a clear advantage to making a personell change. Some are a little hyperactive, and some use transactions as punishment (the Twins of the Kelly years, for instance). No one’s going to run a real franchise like a fantasy roto owner, making two or three deals a week, one of them involving more than five players, so you have a 200% roster turnover over the course of a season. Teams don’t want to disrupt their rosters, they want to see returns on their investments.
No team though would have been better served by the constant improvement twitchiness of, say, the Reds, than the Mariners. This is a team age will catch up to soon. Maybe not today, or this year, but with Edgar retiring, this is likely it for this edition of the competitive Mariners. The team has a core they can win with, the issue has been the supporting players — and that sould have been easy.
Utility players, spares, platoon partners, these are all things you can pick off the waiver wire if you’re in the office and awake. These are the guys you can pick up and discard, and flex the lineup around as the season goes on. Out of fear and sloth, the Mariners have done nothing. Bloomquist must be one popular clubhouse guy for the team to keep dropping games around him. To look to improve requires a recognition of problems, which goes hand in hand with honest evaluation of your players and others, a hunger to win, and a willingness to take risks. The Mariners have none of these: they’re happy with their team, they’re blind to their own weaknesses, they’re content to win 80-85 games, and they’re risk-adverse.
Sadder still is that the team’s penny-wise and pound-foolish. The Mariners are one of the best teams in the league in making money, and yet they’re unable to grasp how much more money they would make in the playoffs. Every regular season win, more or less, is worth $1-$2 million dollars in revenue to a team, when you take everything into account. Playoff games, even if you lose, are worth millions to a team. A World Series title is millions on top of that.
Pushing Bloomquist out for an infield upgrade, finding better bats, dumping Wilson, McLemore… every improvement, every win they could scrape out, would be worth millions to this team.
Or maybe they are: maybe they’ve got a sheet somewhere that says they’ll make $100m if they fill Safeco and don’t get to playoffs, but being active might cost them an extra $10m and make them only $5m, and their chances of getting to the playoffs don’t improve enough to justify spending even more. I’ll be applying for the M’s GM job if Gillick retires.
He’s human.
Felix Hernandez’s line for the night: 4 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP, 3 WP.
Not a big deal, really. This stuff happens.
Lets review the nights events:
1. Edgar Martinez left the game with tightness in his calf.
2. The M’s lost to Minnesota, have now dropped four out of five, and are limping towards the deadline.
3. The A’s won, and Rich Harden had a tremendous professional debut.
4. Felix Hernandez allowed two runs in a game for the first time all year and met with the trainers twice during his start.
Short of instituting “Who Let the Dogs Out” as the National Anthem, I can’t see too many other things that could have gone wrong.
The M’s can use injuries as an excuse all they want, but no first place team should ever send McLemore and Bloomquist up to lead off the 9th inning of a one-run game. The fact that no one on the bench is any better than these two is an indictment of the roster management by the M’s so far this year.
Dave’s Trading Deadline Preview
Few things generate as much interest among fans as the trading deadline. The rumors fly, speculation swirls, and Billy Beane acquires half of his postseason roster. It’s an annual tradition, right there with apple pie, the three days of sunshine in Seattle, and Keanu Reeves making a horrible movie.
Nothing reminds us that it is August 1st, however, like The Stand Pat Quotes. You’ve seen them before.
“We are comfortable with the 25 men we have now.â€
“There wasn’t anything out there that made sense for us.â€
“We aren’t going to sacrifice the future for a short fix.â€
And we can’t forget my personal favorite; “Sometimes the best trades are the ones you never make.â€
After years of stagnation, I’d be surprised if Gillick even had to issue new comments. Just tell the secretary to open the template, change a few dates, and issue the statement on why the Mariners didn’t make a move at the deadline.
What is baseball, though, if not an avenue for illogical hope? We want to believe that this is the year that the M’s make a move and get over the hump. We want 2003 to be different. We look for signs, glimpses, and innuendo that my lead us to believe that there is reason to believe. If we can’t find it in the players on the field (and honestly, right now, you can’t), we start dreaming about the ones we wish were on the field. And that is why we love the trade deadline, even if the end is as predictable as a Jose Mesa save opportunity.
By now, we’ve identified the areas where the Mariners can improve. It isn’t like we need an entirely new starting line-up like the Oakland A’s (good luck with that one, Billy), and neither are we in as bad shape as the Angels, who are looking for a bulk supply of Rally Monkey pixie dust. The M’s could live without a trade and probably win the division. But, there are holes to be filled, and we won’t be breaking any new ground by identifying them, in order of need, as:
1. Left-handed power bat, preferably to play left field.
2. Third baseman who can hit at Safeco Field
3. Competent backup shortstop
4. Left handed middle reliever
It is unlikely the M’s will fill all of these holes. Okay, let’s be honest. With Pat Gillick’s track record, it is unlikely the M’s even view any of these as holes. But, illogical hope drives us on, so lets look at our options.
Left Field
Brian Giles, Pittsburgh, signed through 2005 at $8 million per season
Giles is a truly great player, and would instantly become the centerpiece of the M’s lineup. However, Pittsburgh will ask for a king’s ransom in return, as right they should. He’s an all-star signed at below market value through the rest of his peak years. He’s a solid fielder who won’t hurt the Mariners pitching-and-defense philosophy, but carries a gigantic stick to the plate as well. Did we mention he was left-handed? However, Giles would cost both arms and a leg in talent. How anxious are we to give up a package that would include the names Soriano, Snelling, and Lopez, and potentially a fourth player? How likely is it that the Mariners take on a long-term contract? Giles is a prayer, a long shot, and an unrealistic expectation. I’ll be stunned if he ends up in Seattle.
Jeff Conine, Baltimore, free agent at end of 2003 season
Call it a gut feeling (mixed with a little bit of inside information), but I think Conine is going to end up in Seattle. And frankly, I couldn’t be less excited about it. Conine is everything the Mariners don’t need; a stoneglove in the outfield who could sink the pitching staff, a right-handed bat who thrives against lefties, and a player who is likely to hit .200 in Safeco Field. His home/road splits aren’t favorable the past three years to him continuing at his current level of mediocre production, and nearly all of his offense comes against southpaws. The Mariners need a bat who can hit right-handed pitching, but Conine provides a lot of things the M’s look for in a player. He’s old, relatively inexpensive, and a nice guy who gets along well with everyone. If acquired, he’ll likely just take at-bats away from Greg Colbrunn and won’t actually improve the team. Yet, he’s the likely addition. Hooray.
Rondell White, San Diego, free agent at end of 2003 season
If the Mariners can’t get Conine, White is a potential fallback plan. The M’s made a run at him during the 2001 offseason, only to see him sign with the Yankees. He certainly made an impression on Jeff Nelson during interleague play, and is having a solid enough season. However, like Conine, he offers nothing defensively and swings a right-handed bat. He could help, but the Padres don’t seem too interested in unloading players without lumping a bad contract into the deal. If taking Kevin Jarvis and his contract is the cost of acquiring White is, than you look elsewhere.
Chris Snelling, Seattle (AA), currently on 40 man roster
Snelling’s hitting the snot out of the ball in San Antonio right now, leading some to suggest that he could be the answer to our woes. For the past four years, I’ve promoted Snelling more than anyone, and I believe in time that he’ll be a quality major league hitter. People who think that time is now, however, are fooling themselves. The adjustment from the Texas League to the American League is a huge one, even for polished sluggers like Mark Teixeira. Better players than Snelling usually struggle in their first few hundred major league at-bats, and the Mariners simply can’t take the gamble that they won’t get the overmatched version that we saw in Seattle last summer before he tore his knee. He’s got a bright future, but rushing him into the middle of a pennant race won’t help him or the Mariners.
Third Base
Tony Batista, Baltimore, free agent at end of 2003 season
How miserable is the crop of available third baseman when a guy who is currently posting a .285 on base percentage is the best option? Batista is a horrible fit in Seattle, as power from the right side is his calling card, and Safeco Field would likely rob him of what little value he has. We can complain about Jeff Cirillo all we want, but the fact remains that very few teams are fielding competent third baseman right now. Even fewer are trading them.
Justin Leone, Seattle (AA), not on 40 man roster
Among the longest of long shots would be the Mariners promoting Leone from San Antonio and giving him a trial. I’m actually of the opinion that this wouldn’t be such a terrible idea. Everyone who watches him take the field raves about his defense, and he’s had a breakthrough season at the plate. He is 26-years-old, tempering expectations for his future, but making him more likely to withstand the pressures of a pennant race than his younger teammates. Leone’s more deserving of a major league roster spot than Willie Bloomquist (along with John Mabry and Mark McLemore, neither of whom can be optioned to the minors), and I’d like to see him get a chance. Realistically, it just isn’t going to happen, however.
Rather than going through the extensive lists of backup shortstops and lefty specialists that are available, let’s just say that there are a lot of them, and you should be able to get one for a song. Should being the key word in that sentence. Never underestimate Pat Gillick’s ability to acquire a lemon for the price of lemonade.
I hope the M’s make a move, because this division is as weak as its been in several years. The A’s and Angels both look like fatally flawed teams, and the Mariners aren’t getting younger. History tells me to not hold my breath, but I want to believe. Here’s to hoping that Stand Pat gives us reason to get excited about the next two months of the year.
If The Box has to pencil the names Bloomquist, McLemore, Mabry, and Wilson into a starting lineup in October, I’ll throw something.
If The Box has to pencil those names in for much longer, the M’s won’t be playing in October.