So, Derek, why exactly is getting another right-handed hitter a good thing? Safeco kills righthanders. The last thing the M’s need is another superstar on the road who hits .220 at home.
As far as replacing Winn and Cirillo go, I’d have to question who is legitimately a better alternative. Are there better hitters than Randy Winn out there? Sure. But how much better would they be in Safeco Field (which is really where the offense needs improving), and how much would it effect the defense. The M’s are currently number one in Defensive Efficiency for a reason, and Winn and Cirillo are contributing to the defensive success.
And, like I said the other day, Cirillo hasn’t stopped hitting. He just went through a homestand, where he never hits. Since going back on the road last Friday, he’s hitting .272/.466/.364. Yes, thats correct, he’s reached base in 7 of his 15 plate appearances since the team left Seattle. I’d go as far as suggesting that when the Mariners aren’t playing at home, Jeff Cirillo is one of the 5 best third baseman in the American League. Ridiculous? Start naming better players. Blalock, Glaus, Koskie, Chavez… Uhh, Bill Mueller, anyone? Robin Ventura? The standards aren’t exactly high, and Cirillo’s .388 road on base percentage (yes, .388, also known as 60 points higher than what the great Eric Chavez is sporting) is darn valuable. Toss in his glove, and he’s a big part of why the M’s are so awesome away from Safeco Field.
Ludicrous thought of the day: the Mariners should see if salary-dumping Texas would like to trade us Alex Rodriguez. Sure, he’s the best player in baseball, but they’re trying to go young-and-cheap now, and Alex gets paid $21m they could waste on other things. They’d save $10m just this year. Texas could use an influx of young good pitchers, and we’ve got young good pitchers to give, and give ’em Guillen to serve out his time at second. Alex gets to play for a competitive team, which is his long-stated desire, in front of fans who appreciate.. well, good thing we poisoned that well. Anyway, I’m sure the town would come around soon enough if he returned. As much as Alex likes yapping about what a great 2b partner Young is, who wants to bet Boone would be even nicer? Plus, he’d be able to get away from Carl Everett.
And that 25m, that’s money the team has, and don’t let them tell you otherwise. They just would prefer to keep it.
The upgrade’s two, three games in the standings easily just with the bat, and then they’d have another right-handed bat, improved up-the-middle defense. Oooh yeah.
Why this won’t happen: M’s are allergic to long-term deals, which is why they lost Alex in the first place. It’s further from Florida. Alex’s unfairly been labeled a money-grubbing pariah here in Seattle.
So what else does this leave us? Where can the team upgrade, costs aside?
Left field: Winn’s good defensively, we figure, but he’s not hitting at all. Good-hitting LFers who might be available… yeagh. Luis Gonzalez? Brian Giles? Cliff Floyd?
3rd base: Cirillo’s stopped hitting again, I don’t know what to do about him. Mike Lowell’s obviously the prize right now, and then it’s a bleak picture.
Bullpen: dear lord, if you’re dead set and determined to have a second lefty in the pen, it doesn’t have to be Matt Freaking White. Argh.
Bench: standard rant here
Costs included, Winn makes $3.3m, Cirillo makes $6.85m, so it’s unlikely the parsimonous M’s would bench either. And they don’t call him Stand Pat for no reason.
I know what’s on your mind, dear readers. “Yeah, I know it seems like Melvin’s only using the good relievers when the M’s are ahead, but is that just perception?”
Hell no. Arthur Rhodes has been in 36 games this year. To break that down:
7 times Rhodes was put into a game when the M’s were behind by any score
1 Rhodes was put into a tie game
28 when Rhodes came in the Mariners had a lead
Further, I think Rhodes has been brought in with the Mariners up by more than three runs as many times as he was brought in with the team behind *at any score*.
Hasegawa’s been in 33 games, and… well, and I’m tired of looking at game logs. Heh. But I see he’s got what, 11 holds, a save, and looking through his season log, I see a lot of games where he’s used in the same way-ahead game situations Rhodes is. I would bet that a detailed accounting would validate this, and I’m going to see if I can’t do some work on this for Baseball Prospectus. Baseball Prospectus: because in the world of MLB coverage, you get what you pay for. Um, anyway, the good relievers appear in close and close-and-behind games far less than you’d expect from the M’s record.
Ladies and gentlemen, Matt White: the new Carrara. Every team has to have one guy on the roster they can blame things on (the Emmanuel Goldstein, for today’s literary reference) and with Carrara gone, Matt White’s been shoved forward to take the boos.
In other news: Garcia is crediting his improvement to better mechanics, concentration, a move on the rubber, and developing an effective slider. Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?
After last nights game, we got several emails that said, essentially, the exact same thing:
“Why did Bob Melvin put Matt White into a one run game, when his quality relievers were all available to pitch?”
Because Bob lives in Bizarro-World, where a 1-run deficit is insurmountable but we must protect a 5 run lead at all costs. He has systematically shown a refusal to use a non-crappy reliever in situations where the Mariners are trailing, and he saves the Nelson/Rhodes/Hasegawa trio to protect leads.
Of course, Pat Gillick gets his share of the blame for bringing Matt White and Giovanni Carrara here in the first place. But Melvin is going to have to learn how to use his bullpen. He’s simply awful at it right now.
Bad times, part I:
SEATTLE 8TH
-M Cameron doubled to deep right center.
-R Winn grounded out to first, M Cameron to third.
-M McLemore struck out looking.
-J Mabry hit for D Wilson.
-J Mabry grounded out to second.
Bad times, part II:
ANAHEIM 8TH
-B Molina fouled out to first.
–M White relieved J Mateo.
-S Spiezio flied out to right.
-J Davanon walked.
–D Eckstein homered to left, J Davanon scored.
-D Erstad grounded out to first.
Minor League Highlights for Monday, June 23
New Orleans 5, Tacoma 4. Despite a gutty complete game effort from LHP Craig Anderson (9 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K) and a 4-0 3rd inning lead, the Rainiers dropped their third straight game to New Orleans. C Pat Borders, DH J.R. Phillips, RF Kenny Kelly and 2B Mickey Lopez each had two hits, including two doubles for Lopez and one each from Borders and Kelly. CF Chad Meyers added a pair of steals, a hit and a run scored on the night.
Arkansas 6, San Antonio 2. RHP Kevin Olore, recently promoted from Inland Empire to fill Rett Johnson’s spot in the starting rotation, was battered around (5 1/3 IP, 1 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K) and took his first San Antonio loss of the year. 1B A.J. Zapp, who the Mariners might want to seriously consider promoting to Tacoma, had three of the team’s seven hits. The Missions, who won the first half title going away, are now 2-3 for the second half.
Inland Empire had the day off, as California League played its All-Star game against a team made up of players from the Carolina League. 66ers who made the trip to Rancho Cucamonga for the game were OF Greg Jacobs and LHP Ryan Ketchner, with the former getting the nod as starting DH.
Peoria 6, Wisconsin 3. Despite homers from RF T.J. Bohn and 1B Jon Nelson, the Timber Rattlers dropped an ugly game in which they committed six errors. 3B Matt Hagen was the primary culprit with three misques in the game. Despite all those errors, only two of the runs scored off RHP Juan Sandoval (7 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) were unearned.
Spokane 10, Everett 1. The AquaSox managed just four hits in the game, all singles, and didn’t score their run until the top of the 9th when the contest had been long decided. LHP Victor Ramirez, who got the win on opening night, took the loss for Everett (5 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K). DH Jeremy Dutton drove in 2B Nick Orlandos for the team’s lone tally.
Mariners 14, Angels 7. You haven’t lived until you’ve seen rookie league boxscores, which often involve more players than a spring training game. Where to begin? The M’s pounded out 14 hits, of which DH John Denny and LF Matthew Ware each had three. CF Jamal Strong, working his way back from shoulder surgery early in the year, had another good game, going 2-4 with a walk and two steals (but keep in mind what sort of competition he’s up against). LHP Kendall Bergdall, the M’s 5th round pick in 2002, picked up the win (5 UP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K).
Minor League Highlights for Tuesday, June 24
New Orleans 3, Tacoma 1. The Rainiers managed just five hits in the game — four singles and a double — as New Orleans completed a four-game sweep. RHP Brian Sweeney (6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K) took the loss, though he pitched well save for a three-run 6th inning. Seattle’s favorite whipping boy, RHP Giovanni Carrara, worked two scoreless frames (2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K).
San Antonio 2, Arkansas 1. Trailing 1-0 after two innings, the Missions rallied for a late victory with one in the 7th and one in the 8th to make a winner of LHP Randy Williams (1 1/3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K) in relief of LHP Bobby Madritsch (6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K). Three of San Antonio’s six hits were doubles, with one each from SS Jose Lopez, DH Chris Snelling and LF Jaime Bubela. Lopez led the offense with a 2-3 night that included a walk, an RBI and a run scored.
Inland Empire had the day off again, as the Cal League played its All-Star Game. The Carolina League All-Stars won the game 5-3, but Inland Empire’s Greg Jacobs was named MVP of the California League squad.
Peoria 7, Wisconsin 4. SS Tim Marritt went 4-5 with a double and a stolen base, but he alone was not enough to carry the Timber Rattlers to victory. Neither was 1B Jon Nelson, who homered for the second straight game. RHP T.A. Fulmer started and took the loss (6 1/3 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K) for Wisconsin, who made two more errors after having made six the game before.
Spokane 7, Everett 1. Just as they did the night before, the AquaSox fell behind early only to manage a lone run in the final inning. RHP Audy Alcantara (3 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K) fell to 0-2 on the season with the loss, and currently sports an ugly 10.57 ERA. He also plunked Spokane 1B Christopher Alexander three times. Offensively, Everett was led by two hits each from LF Brian Lahair and C Brock Griffin.
Rangers 11, Mariners 2. Nothing much to report here, other than two hits each from 2B George Sandel and RF Michael Wilson. The M’s managed just six hits in the game, which is a pretty pathetic effort for an Arizona League game. LHP Vance Hall started and took the loss (3 IP, 5 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 4 BB, 4 K).
With two more hits tonight, Ichiro! now has a 19 game hitting streak. 14 of those 19 games have been multi-hit games, including 7 of the last 8. He has nearly as many 4 hit games (3) as he does 1 hit games (5). He’s 40-81 during the stretch. And to think, a month ago, I wrote he was going to the all-star game on reputation. What the heck was I thinking?
Good Cirillo, Redux
Yea, so I’m probably the last guy on earth who is still standing up for him, but I’m stubborn.
Cirillo, on road, in June: .261/.393/.348 (6-23, 2 doubles, 5 walks)
Cirillo, at home, in June: .209/.258/.241 (6-29, 1 double, 2 walks)
His awful June and coinciding slump that Derek referred to was basically just a homestand. Cirillo hits like a pitcher at Safeco Field, that we know. His season numbers at home are now .200/.245/.250. He’s still pretty useful away from Safeco, though, hitting a respectable .277/.384/.372.
At this point, with both Cirillo and Cameron, I believe the mental frustration has gotten to them. Cirillo is just a different hitter when he’s not in Seattle. In 94 road at-bats, he’s drawn 15 walks against 12 strikeouts, but he’s drawn just 5 walks while still striking out 12 times in 100 at-bats at home. Safeco is downright intimidating to righthanded hitters, and Cirillo and Cameron have not shown an ability to overcome this problem.
This is why I’m against a trade for Mike Lowell, or pretty much any other right-handed bat. The Mariners offense on the road is great. What they need are more people who can hit at Safeco Field. Right now, its basically Boone, Ichiro, Olerud, and Guillen, and the rest of the line-up (Martinez included) goes into the tank when the M’s come home. Safeco really doesn’t do that much harm to lefties, and that is probably what they should focus on acquiring. It may be dramatic, but its time to seriously consider finding Cirillo a home/road platoon mate.
The Madness of Bob Melvin
Bases Outs
0 1 2
empty 0.57 0.31 0.12
1st 0.97 0.60 0.27
2nd 1.18 0.73 0.33
1st, 2nd 1.63 1.01 0.48
3rd 1.52 1.00 0.41
1st, 3rd 1.92 1.24 0.52
2nd, 3rd 2.05 1.50 0.64
1st, 2nd, 3rd 2.54 1.70 0.82
That’s a Run Expectation table I got a while back from one of the BP dudes (Michael Wolverton). It’s for 2000, because that’s what I had lying around, and since I’m not getting paid for this, you’re not getting the consulting-rate research. But it’ll do for our purposes.
What it is is a way to estimate the value of certain situations. For instance, if you have a guy on first and no outs, an average team in an average ballpark against an average pitcher would get 1 run (well, .97 runs). Notice how quickly the run expectation drops eith each out.
You can start to see some things: guy on first, no outs, .97. Sacrifice him to second, 1 out, and.. uh, oh, you’ve cost yourself a fifth of a run.
So, let’s look at Bob’s weirdest fixation: bunting guys from 1,2 to 2,3.
0 outs: 1.63 runs before the sac to 1.50 runs after.
1 outs: 1.01 runs before the sac to .64 runs after.
Counter-productive. Always counter-productive. As an offense, you only have 27 outs to work with, and giving them up is almost never a good idea.
Now this isn’t a sure-fire situation: because it assumes a league-average hitter, for instance, if you’ve got a particularly weak hitter up with a penchant for ground balls, it may make more sense to take the sure advancement, but only if you don’t have any pinch-hitting options available to you.
The reverse, however, is also true: if you have good hitters up, it makes even less sense to give up an out when there’s a good chance the batter will advance the runners and be safe themselves.
Let’s say you’ve got Mike Cameron up and runners on 1,2. Cameron’s been hitting well this year, he’s a righty, and he’s historically a pronounced fly-ball hitter, which means you’re at a decreased risk of a double-play ball aaand even if he gets himself out there’s a chance you get the runner from second to third anyway. Aaaand let’s say you’re down by two. Needing two runs, it doesn’t do you any good to try and bunt the two runners over: it would appear that it does, in the sense that it takes away the DP and allows a single to score both runners, but the chance of the runner from second scoring on a single is actually pretty low. What you really need is a couple of hits, and maybe a dinger. What you don’t want is to squander any of those outs.
So knowing that, and knowing that trading an out for a one-base advancement is dumb, why would you ever do it?
I know that small baseball is ‘how the game is supposed to be played’ and that everyone has to hear this tripe from the announcing crews constantly. Ron Fairly, for example, will say “It’s amazing how many times you play for one run and get more than run.” Yeah, Ron, it’s amazing — almost never. As Earl Weaver put it, you should only play for one run if that one run will win you the ballgame.
It must be hard for Melvin as a rookie manager, eager to prove himself, to remain passive in these situations, to let the game play itself out and not try and make something happen. He’s eager to make his mark, to do things when not doing a thing would be better, in order to show that he’s active and engaged and working for the team, and it’s a shame that much of what he’s doing — the bunting, the fixation on L/R matchups — is counterproductive.