If I may be excused for lapsing into the crazy, I’d like to see Ichiro hit .400 this year. He’s hitting .356 so far, and that’s dragged down by his terrible start. In the last couple months he’s been on fire. I punched some numbers into the U.S.S. Mariner Predictotron 2000, and here’s what it said: to finish the season at .400 — not rounding up to .400, but .400 or better — Ichiro will have to get 260 or more hits in his 650 at-bats. In his remaining ~344 at-bats, he’d have to get 151 hits, or hit .439 the rest of the way. Here’s how he can do it, as explained by Wildly Optimistic Fan:
“Okay, so what Ichiro does, he’s hitting .417 against lefties this season, right? So we have to figure that Ichiro’s really figured out left-handed pitching, it’s no problem for him, and he’s got an advantage, they still think these guys are going to get him out, so late innings, Ichiro’s going to get a shot at a lefty every night, probably. Huge opportunity for him to run up his stats. But on the other side, against righties, Ichiro’s only hitting .323, and you know that can’t last. He can hit .350 against right-handers in his sleep, no problem. We’ll see that rise up to what we’d expect, like .380 or so. Right? So we’re looking at him hitting uh, what, figure .400 the rest of the way. That’ll get him 138 hits, no problem, and then he’s only 13 hits away — over the rest of the season! That’s not even one infield hit a week, and if you don’t think Ichiro can do that, you haven’t been watching Ichiro!”
Thanks, WOF. You can now return to your hamster wheel, restoring power to the Seattle Art Museum.
Ichiro: Likeable Dude
I’ve never seen anything as strong as Seattle’s embrace of Ichiro when he arrived here. Ichiro jerseys (or jersey-style T-shirts) as a percentage of total fan shirts was way higher than I’d ever seen during the city’s affairs with Randy, Griffey Jr., or even with Alex. I’ve thought a lot about this and I’ve got a couple of answers.
Ichiro is exciting. I understand that the walks-and-homers approach is great and effective, but it’s boring. Walks are boring, and strikeouts are only a little more exciting. The routine ground-out isn’t exciting. Ichiro puts all of that on its head: he doesn’t strike out much, in fact, he doesn’t swing much if he’s not going to put the ball in play, and every ground ball is a potential hit. Ichiro’s a hitter where as a fan I lean forward in my seat, eager to see if something crazy and exciting is about to happen every time he’s at bat.
And like I know the stolen base isn’t worth attempting unless you can swipe ’em at over a 66% success rate to make it worthwhile, it’s an exciting play, and it honestly makes me wish that run scoring in baseball was a little more depressed, so that it would be easier for teams to justify doing wacky double steals, and we could argue about whether the sacrifice bunt was ever worth it. From the grandstands, Ichiro shines here too — when he’s on first there’s a good chance he’s going, and not neccesarily when you expect him to. He steals well, with a good success rate (last year it was down to about 2/3rds, but then I still think something was wrong with him towards the end of last season, when he wasn’t stealing and looked slower).
There are other reasons I think fans love Ichiro. If you were to construct the player many fans harbor a vague hatred for, he’d be huge and fat, overpaid, have a bad attitude towards fans and the game, and possibly be on steroids but no one would know for sure. Ichiro in every way is not these things: he’s smaller and has a whip-like strength, obviously not on the kind of HGH-type streoids other players are whispered to use. Ichiro works constantly at his game, he’s well-paid but not outrageously so — most of the money involved in bringing him here came from the payment to the Blue Wave for the right to negotiate with him. He’s got a level, even attitude about his performance that earns him respect: if Ichiro makes a mistake and leaves men on in scoring position, he doesn’t throw a Boone tantrum, and instead Ichiro almost seems to not care, as if he knows that the chance will come around again, and he won’t make that same mistake. This gives him a sort of stone-cold assasin stare that is, in my opinion, the height of cool: in a way, he reminds me of Will Clark, who would go up to the plate with the Get Shorty stare (“I own you. What I’m not doing is feeling one way or the other about it.”). Ichiro’s stare is almost the same, but it’s more “I’m getting on base, and you’re going to get me there.” People dig that kind of quiet, understated confidence.
Which in turn plays into Ichiro’s relationship with the press and the fans. Ichiro is a man of few words (though you can, as my University of Washington English professor David Shields did, milk a book out of it), but he is uncomplaining, wise, and modest. Having followed his comments and the rare interviews since he’s come over, I think Ichiro is a strange baseball player: he’s confronted with colossal fame he doesn’t understand (I can’t imagine how strange it must be to have that kind of constant media attention), he’s blessed with amazing talent at a sport when tempermentally he might have settled into an entirely different career, something understated, and led a happy life outside of the media eye. And despite his strange situation, he’s having a good time: when he drops the game face, he’s smiling. He cracks a huge grin for kids when they go out for pre-game promotions to meet him, says “Whassup,” jokes around with other players in English, Spanish — he’s a likeable guy.
Ichiro is also unique, building a career out of pieces of a game no one else has — astounding bat control, a great throwing arm, speed, effort, and skill.
This is all part of Ichiro’s star power: He plays a particular game only he can play, it’s a game that we want to see, and he conducts himself as we’d like to think we would conduct ourselves: respectfully, concentrating on the game when it counts, and being a good guy outside of the game.
Good Cirillo, We Hardly Knew Ye
I know I got a little excited about Jeff’s strong May. And why not? He hit .306/.351/.389 and for a while after that, it looked like the power was starting to come back a little… and now not so much. Jeff’s June is a paltry .231/.328/.288 and I feel like maybe it was just the wandering pixie dust, now favoring Freddy Garcia, and Jeff has turned back into a pumpkin. Coincidentally, the local papers have stopped talking about what a great job Lamar Johnson was doing working with Cirillo. The problem, roster-wise, is that the Mariners may now decide to give CrapLemore more playing time at third, particularly against right-handers, punting defense for Bob Melvin’s Patented Percentage Play, and it’s a sucker’s bet:
Splits, both players:
McLemore v. righties: .187/.279/.299
Cirillo v righties: .216/.298/.280
And because OBP is worth a lot more than SLG, you’re taking an offensive hit as well as a defensive hit with this move. Here’s what the Mariners need to do: comb the minors and find a solid hitter who looks sort of like Cirillo. Ernie Young, perhaps, but it doesn’t matter — anyone will do who can pass for Cirillo with some eyeblack and facial hair. Then every time it’s Cirillo’s turn to bat, instead of stopping in the dugout, he walks straight back into the clubhouse, and out comes FakeCirillo, who bats and runs for Jeff.
Illegal? Sure. But for the cost of a minor league deal, the Mariners get a two-way player and no one has to be the wiser. It’s really the only option they’ve left themselves at this point.
I continue my Edgar-as-Hall-of-Famer crusade in today’s Breaking Balls column o’er at BP (the original BP).
Ichiro the slap-hitting singles machine has hit 16 doubles, 3 triples, and has 7 home runs. Meanwhile, in New York… the power hitting Matsui has 23 doubles and seven HR. Their lines:
Ichiro: .356/.398/.487
Matsui: .286/.340/.432 (side note — Matsui’s having a monster June that’s finally dragging his season stats to the not-totally-embarassing level)
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaah. Who’s got the better Japanese player? We do, that’s right, you whiny New Yorkers.
Mariners Home Run Race 2003
—
Boone, 19
Franklin, 18 (though as Niehaus cannot stop mentioning, “15 of those have been solo shots” as if that has anything to do with anything)
Garcia, 15 (or the same number of solo shots Franklin’s given up)
Edgar, 14
Meche, 11
Cameron, 10
Moyer, 9
Ichiro/Mateo, 7
Which brings us to another edition of
Derek’s Wacky Mariner Pitching Rate Stats
Who abf h% hr% bb% k%
Franklin 409 21.0% 4.4% 6.4% 12.0%
Garcia 412 21.4% 3.6% 8.5% 14.6%
Meche 377 21.0% 2.9% 7.2% 17.8%
Moyer 396 19.7% 2.3% 8.1% 17.7%
Mateo 119 21.8% 5.9% 6.7% 19.3%
Carrara 141 28.4% 4.3% 9.9% 9.2%
Pineiro 430 20.7% 1.4% 9.3% 16.5%
Nelson 107 20.6% 2.8% 11.2% 26.2%
Hasegawa 142 19.7% 1.4% 4.2% 12.7%
Sasaki 85 22.4% 1.2% 8.2% 24.7%
White 7 28.6% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0%
Rhodes 130 14.6% 0.0% 7.7% 23.1%
Soriano 26 15.4% 0.0% 11.5% 30.8%
Apx AL averages: H 23%, HR 3%, BB 8%, K 16%
(leaving White and the demoted Carrara out of this for now)
Leaders, good sense: H, Rhodes, HR Rhodes, BB Hasegawa, K Soriano
Leaders, bad sense: H Sasaki, HR Mateo, BB Soriano, K Franklin
Soriano makes me think of Bull Durham.
“He walked 18.”
“New league record.”
“Struck out 18.”
“Another new league record.”
Here’s another thing on my mind: who cares about Safeco Field? Safeco’s another HOK park, it’s got a retractable roof. What aspect of Safeco reflects Seattle? What makes it truly distinctive from any park built in the last couple of years? View of the Seattle skyline? Blocked in large part by Seahawk Stadium, which is a huge fucking disgraceful boondoggle and I cannot believe as a city we built a ballpark and then immediately decided to wreck the ballpark’s view of the city by sticking a football stadium right in its sightlines. How can no one be fired, sued, or impeached over this? Every day the Mariners play, 35 thousand people can’t see Smith Tower because the Seahawks are playing what, ten games a season and wanted a stadium that for whatever stupid reason had to have really high sides.
But here’s my point: Safeco’s a nice place to watch a game. I have some gripes, but they’re not that serious. What it lacks is a truly distinctive spirit (I’ll be editing this post when I come up with a better word) that we’re going to love now and in 50 years. PacBell’s an amazing park, with McCovey Cove and this beautiful feel to it. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has a great look, and the warehouse — it’s distinctive and immediately recognizable. But a lot of these other HOK parks are generically nice: Great American Ballpark sucks, but it doesn’t suck distinctively compared to say Miller Park. I don’t want novelty as a salve: don’t give me a pool in centerfield, or a hot-tub, or pole dancing, or whatever. Okay, maybe the pole dancing. No! What I’m looking for is something in a park that says “You’re in Seattle.”
We used to have it in the views, but we pissed it away. We’re a short-sighted and stupid city, corrupt and lazy, and given the chance to preserve something truly distincitive, a beautiful calling card, we sold it to Paul Allen.
Minor League Highlights for Sunday, June 22
New Orleans 7, Tacoma 5 (15 innings). The two teams played an epic battle Sunday, with New Orleans scoring three runs in the top of the 15th to win it after the Rainiers had scored a run in the bottom of the 9th to force extra innings. RHP Scott Atchison (4 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 B, 5 K) took the loss for Tacoma in relief of starter Brian Falkenborg (5 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 2 HR). Offensively, the Rainiers were powered by homers from SS Mickey Lopez, DH Greg Colbrunn and C Julio Mosquera.
San Antonio was idle, as the Texas League played an extremely light schedule Sunday. The Missions have yet to announce a starter for their game with Arkansas.
High Desert 5, Inland Empire 1. The 66ers fell short on offense, managing just four singles and two doubles in the game while leaving six runners on base. LHP Glenn Bott (3 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) left the game early and took the loss, though the bullpen kept the game close. LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith pitched a scoreless inning (1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K) in his high-A debut. 3B Hunter Brown and LF Jason Van Meetren each doubled for the 66ers, with Van Meetren driving in DH John Castellano for the lone run.
Burlington 10, Wisconsin 5. Wisconsin pitchers gave up 19 hits in the game, as LHP Bobby Livingston was roughed up (5 1/3 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 1 K) and took the loss to fall to 9-3 on the year. RF T.J. Bohn, who scored once and drove in a run, had two of the Timber Rattlers’ seven hits, and C Christopher Phillips drove in a pair of runs.
Everett 4, Spokane 1. LF Josh Ellison had a monster game, going 4-4 at the plate with a double and a run batted in. Ellison, who also scored twice and stole two bases, is now hitting an even .500 on the young Northwest League season. Meanwhile, five Everett pitchers combined to limit Spokane to five hits in the game, with the win going to RHP Felix Hernandez (3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K). Hernandez took over for starter Elvis Perez (3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K), who is working on a rehab assignment and will likely be promoted shortly. RHP Brian Stitt worked a shaky 9th (1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) for his first save.
In other minor league news, OF Jamal Strong made his 2003 season debut in rookie ball yesterday. He was apparently pretty rusty after the long layoff, going 3-3 with a triple, two walks and a steal. Once he gets some at-bats in, Strong should report to either San Antonio or Tacoma.
And now, a reminder that no matter who’s on your schedule, you still have to go out and play the games. M’s fans were pretty happy having three games with San Diego while the A’s had three with the Giants, but after the dust had settled this weekend, the Mariners lost two of three while the Athletics won two of three. Don’t look now, but Oakland has won eight of their last nine and is only 5 1/2 games back.
Minor League Highlights for Saturday, June 21
New Orleans 7, Tacoma 4. LF Jalal Leach and RF Kenny Kelly each homered for the Rainiers, but it wasn’t enough to lead them to victory as LHP Matt Thornton was hit hard again (4 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K), falling to 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA since being promoted from San Antonio. Outside of Leach and Kelly’s homers, the only bright spot for Tacoma was the relief pitching of RHP Aaron Looper (3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K).
Midland 4, San Antonio 1. RHP Chris Wright, back in the starting rotation after the promotions of LHP Matt Thornton and RHP Rett Johnson, was hurt by his defense and allowed three unearned runs. SS Jose Lopez, 1B A.J. Zapp and 3B Rob Gandolfo each made errors behind Thornton (5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K). Offensively, the Missions out-hit Midland 9-8 but were only able to score once. 2B Jay Pecci, thriving since his demotion from Tacoma, and DH Chris Snelling each had a pair of hits.
Inland Empire 4, High Desert 1. The 66ers rallied for a late victory, scoring three runs in the 8th and one more in the 9th to make a winner of LHP Ryan Ketchner (3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K) in relief of RHP Cha Seung Baek (4 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K). DH Blake Bone and C Luis Oliveros each had a pair of hits, with Bone driving in two runs . RHP Enmanuel Ulloa (1/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K) struck out the final batter of the game to pick up his first save of the year.
Wisconsin 7, Burlington 1. CF T.J. Bohn and C Rene Rivera each hit two-run homers, as the Timber Rattlers took a 6-0 lead after three innings and never looked back. RHP Tanner Watson picked up the win with his first complete game of the year (9 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K), improving his record to 2-3. DH Carlos Arroyo and 3B Matt Hagen each doubled twice, and SS Michael Garciaparra had a pair of singles.
Vancouver 4, Everett 3. Despite seven hits and eight walks, the AquaSox managed just three runs thanks to stranded 11 runners. RHP Randall Frye, the M’s 4th round draft pick in 2002 making his season debut, started for Everett but wasn’t around for the decision (5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K). Offensively, SS Luis Cordova had a pair of singles and LF Josh Ellison scored twice.
Minor League Highlights for Friday, June 20
Tacoma 7, Memphis 2. RHP Rett Johnson (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) was shaky early, but settled down and didn’t allow a hit after the 3rd inning to win his AAA debut. The Rainiers pounded out 14 hits in support of Johnson, with 2B Mickey Lopez leading the way with a 3-5 night. DH Greg Colbrunn, LF Jalal Leach and SS Ruben Castillo each added a pair of hits, and Leach, 3B Luis Figueroa and 1B J.R. Phillips each drove in a pair of runs.
Midland 6, San Antonio 4. Midland jumped on LHP Travis Blackely (5 1/3 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 6 K) for a run in the 1st and four more in the 2nd, dropping the young Australian to 9-3 on the season. Offensively the Missions were led by LF Mike Curry, who went 2-3 with a double, two runs scored and a run driven in. RF Elpidio Guzman also had a pair of hits in three at-bats and scored once.
Inland Empire 17, High Desert 2. The 66ers exploded for 17 runs on 16 hits, scoring in all but the 1st and 2nd innings. All that offense was more than enough for LHP Troy Cate (8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K), who has pitched much better than his 3-7 record. Seven players — CF Dustin Delucchi, 3B Hunter Brown, 1B JOhn Castellano, LF Greg Jacobs, DH Cristian Guerrero, 2B Evel Bastida-Martinez and C Luis Oliveros — had two hits each. The 66ers hit seven homers in the game, including two each for Brown and Jacobs.
Burlington 9, Wisconsin 2. LHP Cesar Jimenez (2 1/3 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 0 K) allowed six runs in the first inning, as Burlington pounded out 16 hits and limited the Timber Rattlers to just five. 3B Matt Hagen provided most of the offense, scoring both the team’s runs and going 2-2 with a homer, a walk and a run batted in.
Everett 4, Vancouver 3. LHP Beau Hintz, who posted an 8.39 ERA at Wisconsin this year, found the Northwest League more to his liking and picked up the win (6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K) in his first start with the AquaSox. C Brian Lentz had two hits and scored twice, and CF Josh Womack drove in a pair of runs with a triple.
Well, that was fun.