Borders goes back to Tacoma and the M’s bring up Rafael Soriano. He’s better than Carrara, White, and Mateo, but if he’s not going to pitch regularly, I’d rather see him in Tacoma. With the way our starters have been going (okay, Joel, stop making me look stupid), we really don’t need to carry seven relievers.
Also, I hereby nominate Bloomquist, McLemore, and Ugueto as the worst bench in the history of baseball.
Also, if anyone out there is keeping track of such things, that’s now 10 runs in the past six games. Miraculously, they’re 3-3 in those six games.
Hey everybody. I updated the Big Board for this week, including placing Greg Colbrunn on the DL and moving Luis Ugueto from San Antonio to Seattle. You’ll notice the Missions are pretty thin right now — they were already down an outfielder when Chris Snelling went on the DL, and with Ugueto now in Seattle their only bench player is that game’s non-starting catcher (either Scott Maynard or Jim Horner). It’s their All-Star break right now, so they’ve got a couple of days to get that worked out if they so choose.
Also, Everett starts up play this week in the Northwest League. Once we have an Opening Day roster and some idea who the starters are going to be, I’ll add the Aqua Sox to the Big Board (as well as the Peoria Mariners, though in rookie ball it’s pretty tough to tell who the regulars are as lineups change pretty much daily).
Minor League Highlights for Sunday, June 15
They’re baaaaaack…
Las Vegas 10, Tacoma 5. Las Vegas ran Tacoma pitching ragged Sunday, scoring in six of their eight innings including a five-run bottom of the 8th. RHP J.J. Putz was hit hard (4 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) and took the loss in relief of RHP Scott Atchison (4 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 HR). CF Chad Meyers was Tacoma’s top offensive performer, with a double and a homer in five at-bats. C Julio Mosquera added a pair of singles and LF Jalal Leach also homered.
San Antonio had the day off, as the Texas League will play their All-Star Game today at Wichita’s Lawrense Dumont Stadium. The Missions, who had nine players named to the All-Star team, will resume their season on Wednesday.
Inland Empire 7, High Desert 3. 1B Jason Van Meetren had a monster game at the plate, going 4-4 with two singles, a double, a triple, two RBIs and two runs scored. He also stole his 7th base of the season. RF Shin-soo Choo, DH John Castellano and 2B Evel Bastida-Martinez each had a pair of hits, contributing to a 13-hit attack. RHP Brian Strelitz (2 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K) picked up the win in relief of LHP Ryan Ketchner (4 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K), and LHP Justin Blood (2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K) earned his 2nd save.
Kane County 7, Wisconsin 3. RHP Juan Sandoval was roughed up (5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2 HB), ending his run of good starts and dropping his record to 4-5 on the year. Offensively the Timber Rattlers got two hits and a walk from 1B Jon Nelson and a two-run homer from 3B Matt Hagen, but that was about all as they managed just five hits in the game.
A few minor league notes to stave off the inevitable emails:
1. Matt Thornton is making a spot-start for Tacoma tonight in place of Rafael Soriano, whose start has been moved to Wednesday. Thornton was chosen because he’s one of the few Missions not playing in the Texas League All-Star game today. There’s a very good chance that Rett Johnson’s appearance today will be his last in the league, as he’s almost guaranteed a promotion to Tacoma this week. Justin Leone could very well get the call as well, as the Rainiers need some life infused into their team, and he’s pretty much destroyed AA pitching the first half.
2. Jamal Strong’s rehab is going very well, and he may actually be ready to play in games by mid-July. Whether he’d be assigned to San Antonio or Tacoma hasn’t been decided, but a hot finish to the year could put him in the mix for a September callup.
3. The M’s signed Tom Oldham, their 8th round pick out of Creighton, and assigned him to Everett. He’ll likely join the rotation before too long.
4. A friendly reminder that I’ll be joining Pat Dillon on the Everett Aquasox pregame show this Friday at 6:30 pm pacific time. The game will be broadcast on 90.7 FM KSER, and a streaming audio link will be added to their website
I’d love to see Meche bring the A game tonight. We’ve seen him decent and good this year, and I’m dying to see him bust out another really great game, rack up some Ks. Still, with Meche as a flyball pitcher, there’s almost no better place for him to be than Seattle. Why, you say? I’m glad you asked.
Fun Mariner Stat of the Day
a Short Digression
A great way to measure outfield defense is to look at how many extra-base hits they’re giving up. A ground ball that makes it through the infield should be a single, and the doubles and triples generally come from line drives and fly balls into the gaps and corners. A good outfield defense turns those into outs and singles. You can see in BP’s Defensive Efficiency report that the Mariners are second best in turning balls put into play into outs. But what about the question at hand?
They’re the best. In fact, they’re the best by a wide margin. I looked at doubles and triples as a percentage of non-HR hits (because the outfield rarely can make a play on HR balls), and the Mariners were #1. In fact, the Mariners led MLB with a 19.4% rate — only one of five hits turned into a double or triple. Second-best was the Cubs, at 20.4%, and then LA-Montreal at 21.6, 21.7%, another gap to Oakland at 22.3%, and then it’s unremarkable until the tail end, where St. Louis sits at 28.7% and Cincinnati and Texas are at 30%.
So I took another look at: extra-base hits as a percentage of balls in play, for a couple of reasons that are too boring to get into, particularly, and it becomes even more dramatic this way. Of all the balls opposing batters put into play when hitting against the Mariners, only 4.9% — one in twenty — is a double or triple. There’s a three-way tie for second: Oakland, LA, the Cubs, at 5.6%, and dead last is Texas at 9.5%, almost one in ten (29th, Cincy, 8.8%). If you put wood to bat against the Rangers, you’re twice as likely to get a double or triple than you are against the Mariners.
And I know the difference between one and ten and one in twenty seems slim, but think of it another way: that’s almost an extra-base hit a game, all season long. The Rangers will probably wind up giving up 130-150 (or even more) more doubles than the Mariners over the course of the season, and that’s runs on the scoreboard and wins in the standings. This is a huge reason for the M’s success: not only are they shutting down opposing offenses turning balls in play into outs, the outfield is turning other teams’ doubles and triples into outs and singles.
On a philosophical bent, defense is hugely underrated in the stathead community, of which I am one. I used to think you should always punt defense, but I’ve come around entirely. When you turn a hit into an out, you not only advance your team 1/27th further to the end of the game. You erase that runner, and because of that out, you prevent an additional batter, who might get a hit — I did some sims on this when I was writing my outfield defense articles, and it’s amazing how quickly defensive improvements build on themselves to bring a team around. If I was in charge of the Rangers (and I’m not)(though I’m available, if they’re hiring, which they should be), I’d seriously consider playing defensive specialists (real ones, too, not reputed ones) in the outfield as long as we’re not playing for the future. It’d go a long way to bringing their scores down to winnable levels and help develop a pitching staff… wait, they don’t have one. Well, then I’d get a bunch of cheap dudes like Travis Driskill to fill the rotation until waaaaait… since I don’t want the Rangers to win, I’m going to stop explaining the path to competitiveness until such time as they pay me to continue.
Also, I like Ryan Franklin. He’s not a dude who goes out and blows guys away with his stuff, though he gets his Ks. He’s up letting the defense doing the work, avoiding the home run as best he can, and trying go seven innings and hand the game off to the bullpen. Franklin’s a pitcher who understands that letting the ball get hit means he’ll look good some days and bad days, but he doesn’t get rattled or freaked out if a ball or two drops around him. Franklin’s not a star, and he’s not going to be a star, but there’s a lot of value in having him around, especially with a good defensive team, knowing you’ll get 200+ innings of quality pitching in the rotation.
Hello, and welcome back to Seattle Mariners Jeopardy. Our next category is “Numbers.” And the answer is, “8.” Anyone? No? Bzzt! OK then. The question was, “How many runs have the Mariners scored in the last five games combined?”
I’m just sayin’…
Hi. I’m Derek, and if Freddy continues to pitch as well as he did against the Braves, I’m announcing that I like my crow served to me crisply fried, seasoned only with a dash of salt and pepper.
In other news, holy cow does Furcal have an arm on him. I think that’s the fastest I’ve seen a shortstop throw so far this year.
It has been almost two weeks since the draft, and I’ve finally got some time to write about it now. I’ve gotten several questions on what I think of the M’s performance, especially with so many teams having shifted to the philosophy of selecting college players. While I usually get thrown into the pool of statistical analysts (apparently, anyone who values on base percentage is a stathead), I’m not in line with the drafting strategies employed by Oakland, Toronto, and Boston. I’ve read Moneyball (and written my thoughts on the book), and I know the fad is to decry the drafting of high school players. For the long explanation, you can follow the link, but my basic belief is that drafting HS players isn’t any worse of a strategy than drafting college players. For those decrying the M’s draft simply because of the lack of college emphasis, I’d suggest taking a gander at the facts first. This was not a bad draft simply because they took 18-year-olds instead of 22-year-olds.
That said, I’m not really all that thrilled with the picks. Most notably, the first round pick of Adam Jones doesn’t do a lot for me. The remarks I get on his bat when talking to scouts who saw him in high school range from “questionable” to “not a chance he’ll hit with wood.” The M’s like his actions in the field, his extremely strong arm, and his athletic ability, but they’ll even admit that his ability to hit is the question right now. I’m not a fan of using high draft picks on position players who aren’t projecting as offensive forces. You can snag a PAM (useful, no stick) in the later rounds. When using your premium picks, I think its important to get a guy who you believe will have an impact with the bat. If Jones turns into a hitter, he could be a fine player. The if is just too big for me, right now.
Some organizations will hedge after selecting a risky pick by grabbing some low-ceiling polished guys later to insure that the draft isn’t a total disaster. The M’s certainly didn’t do this, following Jones selection with the pick of Jeff Flaig, another high school SS who comes with injury problems. Everyone loves Flaig’s bat, so in that sense, I like the pick, but no one really knows how he’s going to respond when he’s fully healthy again. The word that comes up when discussing his shoulder isn’t injured but damaged, and some people aren’t sure if he’s ever going to regain the arm strength necessary to play third base. I’m glad the M’s picked a guy with the potential to be an offensive force, but I wish they could have found one with less question marks. Flaig, like Jones, offers an intriguing return, but comes with quite a bit of risk.
The most consternation from the stathead community came from the selections of the high school lefties in rounds 3, 4, and 6. However, Ryan Feirabend, Paul Fagan, and already-signed Erik O’Flaherty were all quality selections for where the M’s grabbed them. O’Flaherty, in particular, has gotten strong reviews from other teams as an astute selection. The easiest way to develop a pitching prospect is to gather a bunch of them and go with whoever doesn’t hurt their arm, and the M’s definitely went with the quantity method this year. I may have preferred they mix in one or two college arms instead, but I don’t see any reason to write these guys off simply because they’re high school pitchers.
The key to the entire draft could be 15th round pick Scott Maine, who had 2nd round talent and fell due to signability concerns. The M’s confirmed with his agent that he would sign for second round money before they selected him, and he is willing to forego college for the right price. If they can find the $700,000 or so in their budget to get him signed, it will be a coup. They’ll have to answer to the commissioner’s office, who is attempting to crack down on large signing bonus’ for players who fall, but Maine could be worth it.
Overall, I think the draft is a mixed bag. They got a lot of arms, which should help stack the lower levels with quality pitching, which they currently lacked, but they didn’t add any polished hitters who can make an impact in the majors any time soon. The position players they did select are projects, and the Mariners coaching staff is overloaded with projects as it is. A lot of this draft will hinge on Jeff Flaig’s shoulder. If he can come back healthy and show everyone that the Troy Glaus comparisons were legitimate, the M’s will likely do well. If he ends up in left field and can’t regain his power, they’ll likely regret passing the opportunity by to add some much needed power to the system.
Overall, I’ll give Frank Mattox a C in what could very well be his last draft as the M’s scouting director.
Good to see Freddy pitch well when he’s not spotted a touchdown in the first inning. The Braves offense has been a machine the past week, making his performance all the more impressive. Hopefully we won’t see Truly Terrible Freddy again for quite a while.
I’m not a big fan of using Hasegawa for one batter in the 8th. With Sasaki on the DL, we’re essentially down to three pitchers you want to use in a close game, and Melvin essentially burned one of them for no real reason. Had Nelson given up the tying run in the 9th, we’d have been trying to win the game with Mateo, White, and Carrara. If you’re going to get Shiggy warmed up and bring him in, use him for more than a batter, even if that means Chipper gets to bat left-handed.
Mike Cameron looked horrible against Trey Hodges. That might be one of the worst at-bats I’ve ever seen him have. At some point, its not just the dimensions in Safeco Field, but the approach he takes while at home. Its hard to tell where the park effect ends and the confidence effect begins.
Tremendous reactions by Jeff Cirillo on that diving stop. Its difficult to explain just how hard that play really is. As Derek pointed out today and I’ve posted a few times here on the blog, Cirillo’s been a pretty solid player for the past two months. I’d argue that he’s the best defensive player on the team, relative to the rest of the league, and he’s pretty easily the best gloveman at third base in baseball.