Following in the footsteps of such Mariner greats as Luis Sojo, Chris Widger and Sterling Hitchcock, Charles Gipson has found his way to New York. After not being offered a contract by the Mariners last winter, Gipson signed on with the Cubs but was the last cut in spring training. Rather than accept his assignment to the minors, he instead chose free agency. I laughed at this decision at the time, thinking he had a much better shot of making the majors if he stuck it out with the Cubs because Dusty Baker loves scrappy players who can play multiple positions. Fortunately for Gipson, he didn’t take my advice — not that he asked me — and signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. After seven games as a Columbus Clipper, Gipson was recalled to the big club today in favor of OF Chris Latham, who was designated for assignment. What is it about former M’s scrubs who wind up with the Yankees, anyway? What’s worse, you just know Gipson is going to hit a bases-clearing double to win a game in the post-season.
As the resident pessimist, I still see more flaws than a championship team should have. However, 11-8 against that competition is impressive, and I’m certainly thrilled with where we are at the moment. Considering 4-2 on this homestand could be considered a failure, we should head to New York next week with a pretty impressive record. Whether they’ll be able to sustain that is another question.
Offensively, they’re being carried by Boone and Martinez. For differing reasons, there is reason to believe that neither will be able to carry the offense all year. They are simply going to need Ichiro to turn back into something resembling an all-star outfielder and at least one of Cirillo, Cameron, and Olerud to improve their performance in a pretty dramatic way. I’m reasonably optimistic about Ichiro. The others? I’m not sure.
The starting pitching is putting up some pretty scary ratios. After yesterdays start, Ryan Franklin is now averaging 3.86 K/9 has an 8/11 BB/K. Hello Paul Abbott. Joel Pineiro’s 4.85 K/9 is still a far cry from where it should be, given his stuff, and his 11/14 BB/K isn’t very encouraging. Freddy’s K/9 is 5.87, and his 13/15 BB/K is just sorry. Besides Moyer, I don’t think there is one guy in the rotation who you can reasonably expect to pitch well each time out.
It’s a good start, even if it is overrun with lousy performances. I still see a 3rd or 4th place team when I watch them play, but neither Anaheim or Oakland is making a strong case that they’re going to win 100 games again.
So, the initial run through the division is finished. What’s the general feeling?
On the good side of things, they’re 11-8 and in first place after 19 games against what’s generally considered the best division in baseball. If you had told me before the season they’d be where they are at this point, I certainly would have taken it. Yesterday’s meltdown aside, the bullpen has been very good. Even with yesterday, the bullpen’s ERA is 2.87. I don’t know if this is a credit to Melvin or not, but if you look at the pitchers in the bullpen sorted by ERA, it’s almost exactly opposite the order if were to sort them by innings pitched — in other words, the guys who have pitched the most innings have the lowest ERAs, led by Hasegawa’s 13 1/3 IP and 0.00 ERA. As for the starters, they’ve pitched pretty much like you might have expected…
Garcia: Flashes of brilliance, flashes of being awful
Moyer: Brilliant at times, human at others but still good
Pineiro: Unexpectedly struggling with walks, but still solid
Franklin: Six innings per start, ERA of 4.21… that was an easy call
Meche: The jury is still out on this one
Offensively, Edgar is still mashing, Boone has turned things around after a slow start and Guillen is teasing us yet again with a hot start. Outside of those three, pretty much the rest of the offense is asleep. Starting at the top…
Ichiro: Hitting .260, has no power, has only stolen three bases and doesn’t seem to be that dynamic presence at the top of the batting order any more. On the plus side, he’s drawn nine walks.
Winn: Looked good for a week or so there, then got home to Safeco and bombed like we all hoped wouldn’t happen. Still, he’s drawing walks and has as respectable .373 OBP to show for it. Also no power, and not stealing bases either.
Boone: .303/.398/.566 — this is as good as it gets, so enjoy it while it lasts. Drawing walks at a good clip.
Edgar: We all know what he can do when healthy.
Olerud: I have a feeling we’re looking at a 2000 Olerud rather than a 2001-2002 Olerud, with the difference there being some power.
Cameron: I love the guy, but there’s no way they should re-sign him after the season barring something major happening. It’s looking more an more like 2001 was his peak, not the establishment of a new level of performance.
Cirillo: “Help, I’m awful.”
Guillen: I’d love to get excited about this hot start, but he did the same thing last year. Tease.
Wilson: See Cirillo, just not quite so much.
The bench, a supposed strength, has not been one so far. Part of this has been Melvin’s strange usage habits, but they’re just not hitting, either. McLemore, Davis, Mabry, Bloomquist and Colbrunn are a combined 24-for-117 (.205).
We should be happy, though, right? I mean, despite all these offensive woes and two big question marks in the rotation, they’re in first place at the season’s first real milepost.
Minor League Highlights for Sunday, April 21
Las Vegas 7, Tacoma 4. Perhaps blinded by the bright lights of Sin City (“Vegas baby, VEGAS!”) the Rainiers dropped this one despite getting homers from DH Pat Borders and 1B Craig Kuzmic. RHP Rafael Soriano allowed eight hits in six innings (4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K), and Tacoma’s late comeback attempt was rendered moot when RHP Allan Simpson (1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K) allowed three runs in the bottom of the eighth. 3B Luis Figueroa had two more hits, raising his season average to a robust .353.
San Antonio 4, Midland 3. RHP Rett Johnson (5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K) wasn’t great, but left the game with a 4-3 lead which was held up by his bullpen. RHPs Josue Matos (2 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K) and Craig House (1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K) combined to close things out, with the latter picking up his first save of the season. House, a former closer prospect with the Rockies, has fallen off the radar screen in the past year or so due to injuries and is trying to work his way back. CF Michael Curry had two hits for the Missions and 1B AJ Zapp drove in three runs.
Rancho Cucamonga 4, Inland Empire 1. The 66ers managed just four hits in the game, finding themselves shut down by a pretty good prospect in Ervin Santana, with their only run coming on LF Phillip Willingham’s first homer of the season. Before that homer, Santana was tossing a one-hit shutout. RHP Emiliano Fruto lasted just 3 1/3 innings (3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K) though RHP Glenn Bott turned in a nice relief apperance (3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K). Having played each other ten times in the past 15 days, the two teams should be happy to face new opponents beginning today.
Cedar Rapids 15, Wisconsin 8. On a day when none of the Timber Rattlers’ three pitchers were effective, the highlight was 2B Tim Merritt, who was just a double short of the cycle. Merritt had three hits in four trips including his first homer of the year, drove in two and scored three times. RF TJ Bohn also had three hits, including two doubles, and SS Michael Garciaparra had a pair of singles. The other good news is that 1B Jon Nelson drew a walk, his fourth of the season. The bad news is on the pitching side, where starter RHP Beau Hintz (4 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K) was the worst of the lot. We’ll just leave it at that.
“Melvin seems reluctant to pinch-hit even for the weakest members of the lineup if it means he loses bench flexibility”
Besides Greg Colbrunn, who Melvin seems unwilling to use regardless of the situation, who would you like to see him have pinch-hit more often? There’s not much of a difference between Cirillo and McLemore at the plate, but the difference in the field is huge. I’d prefer to never see McLemore play the infield again. Mabry’s a worse hitter than just about everyone in the line-up, and he’s a defensive slug, so I don’t see any real value in using him late in games. The defensive downgrades he takes by removing Cirillo from the game aren’t worth the marginal upgrades in offense in most cases. Now, if Bob was actually willing to use Colbrunn, I’d agree with you. But I don’t think we have any idea why Melvin has relegated Colbrunn to 25th man, and I’d guess its probably not fear of bench flexibility.
I have a brief side note — Jon Rauch, who is competing with Meche for the dubious “first to come back from labrum surgery” award, is now 2-0 in 3 starts in Charlotte, with a 2.00 ERA, and in 18 IP has allowed 13 H, 4 BB, and struck out 15. Of total batters faced (67), that’s 19% H, 22% K, 6% bb. I have to think if Garland continues to falter Rauch won’t be long for AAA… except that there may be team/attitude-type issues.
Meche, meanwhile, has pitched 16.2, a 4.86 ERA, 18 H, 5 BB, and 17 K. As K or BB/9, he’s faced 73 batters… which makes for 24% H, 23% K, 7% bb. Almost eerily similar, isn’t it? Okay, not so much. Both are 24. Rauch is what, 20’4″ (6’10”, I think), while Meche is 6’3″. They throw different stuff. Meche has had two different surgeries, Rauch one. Rauch appeared towards the end of last year to have his stuff back, while Meche was (as Dave reminded me when I mixed them up) being booed off the mound in San Antonio. Still, no one really knows what it looks like for a pitcher to recover completely from a labrum tear, or how long it really takes: the first of these guys to return to their former selves will be the first.
Also, on playing for ties: my feeling is that if you’re the home team and you’ve got the chance to win the game in the bottom of an inning — when blowing your bench into the game has an excellent chance of winning it, which means those guys don’t have to take the field at all — you should absolutely do it. Melvin seems reluctant to pinch-hit even for the weakest members of the lineup if it means he loses bench flexibility, which exists to allow him to pinch-hit for the weakest members of his lineup.
“So what do we know about Bob Melvin, so far?”
Know is probably too strong of a word. We may have thoughts or premonitions, but 20 games isn’t really enough for us to know his tendencies.
I am worried about his apparent belief that Greg Colbrunn isn’t as good of a hitter as John Mabry. In today’s game, he sent Edgar Martinez up to pinch-hit for Colbrunn, than allowed Willie Bloomquist to hit for himself. Had he pinch hit for Bloomquist, he would have had to end Guillen’s day off, so at least there was a potential reason for the move. A few innings later, he sends Mabry up to pinch hit for Bloomquist, than uses Guillen as the defensive replacement. Essentially, he chose to have Mabry get the AB he took away from Colbrunn earlier in the game. This is not a good trend and really questionable. Melvin should be quite familiar with how good Colbrunn is and lobbied to bring him here. His usage of Colbrunn so far has been nothing short of strange.
“There’s no point in playing for ties in baseball.”
Despite the faults the past two days, the M’s bullpen is one of the best and deepest in the game. I’d call that a competitive advantage. I’ll take my chances with the Mariners in extra innings over most teams, simply due to the quality of pitchers they are able to run out in the 10th, 11th, and 12th innings. With that said, I think it does make sense to play for a tie with this team.
So what do we know about Bob Melvin, so far? He’s seriously in love with the bunt: not just using it in situations where it’s a wash or makes sense (for instance, getting a runner from 1st to 2nd, or playing for one run at the bottom of the lineup) but also in situations where it clearly does not make sense — sacrificing an out to get the runner from 2nd to 3rd, for instance. For someone who’s supposed to be a human odds calculator, these are bad tactical moves. He seems less predictable calling out the steals than Lou was, but still just as prone to run. As we hear all too often, it would appear Melvin’s in love with the “NL style” of baseball (caution: style may not have anything do do with leagues).
He’s also been willing to flex the lineup around, which is cool. He may be trying to see what he has (though I’d argue this is what spring training is for). He’s reduced Cirillo’s playing time, for one, and he seems almost eager to rest his regulars and see who can take their positions.
However, he’s afraid to make bold moves. And here I mean that while he has a huge bat on the bench in Colbrunn, he seems afraid to use him. This can be attributed to a general fear by managers to make moves in the late innings or extra innings that even marginally degrade their defense, but it remains true that he’s been unwilling to roll the dice and go for the win in tight situations, instead preferring to see how things fall out, and mulling his options. You can also call this ‘caution’ if you want.
Personally, I think you should go for the jugular when you have the opening. If you’ve got men on and low-outs in a late-or-extra inning situation and the guys headed to the plate suck, pinch-hit for them all. Put Greg in there, put John Freaking Mabry, whoever you have on the bench, toss them out there and see if you can end it. If that means you end up with no catcher on the bench and a crazy outfield alignment, so be it. There’s no point in playing for ties in baseball.
Minor League Highlights for Saturday, April 19
Tacoma 5, Las Vegas 3. The Rainiers responded to being shut out by picking up 10 hits on Saturday en route to a victory over the Dodgers AAA club. OF Jalal Leach led the attack with 2 hits, 2 walks, and 2 runs scored and Pat Gillick’s Personal Catcher (TM) Pat Borders hit a three run home run to supply the run scoring. RHP Jeff Heaverlo didn’t have his best game of the year, but got the win anyways, going 5 innings, allowing 3 runs on 3 walks and 3 strikeouts. RHP Brian Sweeney was remarkable in relief, striking out 5 in 3 shutout innings. He’s now walked 2 and struck out 19 in 16 1/3 innings of work, posting a 1.65 ERA on the way. RHP Aaron Taylor pitched a scoreless 9th for his 4th save of the year. Rafael Soriano takes the hill for the Rainiers this afternoon.
San Antonio 12, Midland 6. SS Jose Lopez had four hits including two home runs and a triple as the Missions offense broke out in a big way. Lopez entered the game with just 3 extra base hits, all doubles, in 68 at-bats, but added three more during his 4-6 night. DH John Lindsey went 4-5 with a home run and 3B Justin Leone went 3-4 with his 7th double of the year as San Antonio rolled out 10 extra base hits. LHP gave up 4 runs in 4 innings of work, striking out 3 against 2 walks in a game that didn’t showcase his best stuff. LHP Randy Williams got the win in relief by throwing 1 1/3 shutout innings, lowering his ERA to 0.90.
Inland Empire 9, Rancho Cucamonga 1. RHP Cha Sueng Baek had his best performance in several years with 5 innings of one-hit baseball, walking 1 and striking out 5. He had few problems with one of the better line-ups in the Cal League that included rehabbing major league second baseman Adam Kennedy. A very encouraging start for the former top prospect who is coming off several years of assorted injuries. DH Jason Van Meetran led a balanced attack with a 3-4 evening where the 66’ers scored 9 runs despite only getting 1 extra base hit. 2B Ismael Castro and OF Shin-Soo Choo, the two top hitting prospects on the team, both went 0-3, though Castro did draw a pair of walks. They are hitting .204 and .182 respectively so far, but that will change soon enough. Emiliano Fruto gets the call for the 66’ers on Easter Sunday.
Cedar Rapids 4, Wisconsin 3. The T-Rats couldn’t make it a 4-4 day for the M’s farm system, falling in extra innings to the Kernals. RHP Tom Fulmer had his best start of the year despite giving up 3 runs in 5 innings. He posted 8 strikeouts against just 1 walk in those 5 frames. LHP Cesar Jimenez offered 3 shutout innings of relief, but Cedar Rapids got a run off Bryan Heaston in the 10th inning for the win. Wisconsin only managed 3 runs despite 11 hits, 8 of which were doubles. SS Tim Merritt was the only player in the line-up not to get a double, as he went 0-4. C Rene Rivera raised his average to .300 with a 2-5 evening. Beau Hintz takes the mound for Wisconsin this afternoon.
Minor League Highlights for Friday, April 18
Tucson 3, Tacoma 0. The Rainiers failed to get anything going off three Sidewinders, mustering just two singles on the way to being shut out. Mickey Lopez, spending time at shortstop, and 1B Andy Barkett provided the two hits for the Rainiers, while LHP Craig Anderson was the hard luck loser. He finally had his command and held Tucson to just 3 runs (1 earned) in 6 innings of work. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out one, allowing only 5 hits. Jeff Heaverlo takes the mound for the Rainiers today.
San Antonio 6, Midland 4.
1B A.J. Zapp hit his organization leading 5th home run of the year as part of his 3-4 evening, scoring twice and driving in two runs. Zapp now has more hom runs than the rest of his teammates combined (3), and as many as the entire Inland Empire team. 3B Justin Leone also drove in a pair of runs and SS Jose Lopez scored twice, providing the necessary offense. RHP Chris Wright got the start and struggled again, allowing 4 runs in 4 2/3 innings. Justin Lamber picked up the win in relief with 2 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out three on the way. Jared Hoerman earned his second save with a perfect 9th inning. Travis Blackley squares off today against John Rheinecker in a battle of young southpaws who are among the best prospects in their organizations.
Inland Empire 6, Rancho Cucamonga 1.
2B Ismael Castro had a pair of hits and runs scored and 3B Hunter Brown hit his first home run of the year to lead the 66’ers offense. OF Shin-Soo Choo is slowly raising his average, bringing it to .195 with a 1-4 evening, though he did score and drive in a run. RHP Jared Thomas started and got the win with six brilliant innings, allowing only two hits and two walks while striking out five. LHP Troy Cate made a rare appearance out of the bullpen to get some work in, pitching a scoreless inning, and LHP Ryan Ketchner finished the game with two more solid innings of work, racking up three strikeouts. He now has a sparking 2/18 walk-strikeout ratio in 11 1/3 innings of work. He’s doing it all without the ability to hear. If anyone ever starts a Ryan Ketchner fan club, consider me a charter member. Cha Sueng Baek takes the hill for Inland Empire today.
Beloit 9, Wisconsin 2. Doubleheader Game 1.
LHP Bobby Livingston took the loss with a rough start, allowing all 9 runs (only 5 earned) in 4 innings of work. He gave up eight hits, walked one, and struck out four. David Morrow tossed two scoreless innings of relief, but the offense wasn’t able to overcome the early deficit. OF Dustin Delucchi, who spent last season in the Independant Leagues, got two hits, as did C Rene Rivera, who has brought his average up to .286. Jon Nelson added his fourth double of the year, continuing to show the power that has the Mariners hopeful he’ll eventually learn the strike zone well enough to be an effective hitter. His 2/15 walk-strikeout rate in 52 at-bats so far isn’t encouraging, however.
Wisconsin 5, Beloit 1. Doubleheader Game 2.
The Timber Rattlers salvaged the second game of the doubleheader behind RHP Rich Dorman, who pitched the first 4 2/3 innings allowing only one unearned run despite giving up ten baserunners. Dorman’s ERA now stands at 0.68 for the season. Oscar Delgado got the win in relief and finished the game by tossing 2 1/3 shutout innings. OF Gary Harris provided the offense with 2 hits, including a triple, and Dustin Delucchi scored twice despite not getting a hit (he drew 3 walks). SS Michael Garciaparra went 0-3 to bring his season line to .143/.217/.238. It will be interesting to see how long the M’s let him struggle in Wisconsin before deciding if he’d be better off spending the summer in Everett. Tom Fulmer takes the hill for the T-Rats today.