May 14, 2003 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

Truly Terrible Freddy (TM) showed up again, though he didn’t get a whole lot of help from his defense. 116 pitches in 6 innings against the second worst offense in the American League is troubling, though. If you can’t aggressively attack Casey Blake, than who can you pitch to?

In the fine tradition of Kenny Kelly and Papy Ndungidi, the Mariners claimed Cristian Guerrero off waivers from the Brewers today and assigned him to Inland Empire. Because he’s cousins with the Great Vlad in Montreal, he’s received quite a bit of attention during his career, though none of it has been warrented. He turned 23 last month and was posting a truly horrible .197/.216/.246 line at AA Huntsville. He’d drawn 3 walks against 28 strikeouts in 122 at-bats. He’s simply not going to develop into a major league player, but he’s now a member of the Mariners 40 man roster.

If there’s one good thing about claiming Guerrero, its that it gives me the opportunity to plug, one of the best team oriented websites out there. The guys over there set the standard for hard core fans, and even if you aren’t interested in the Brewers, you should check out their site.

May 14, 2003 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

I’m going to use game scores to try and show what’s happened.

Game score definition, from ESPN’s stat glossary page:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

Best score ever recorded was Kerry Wood’s 20k, 1-h performance, which got a 102, I think. A quality start (6 IP, 3R or less allowed) will get an average pitcher a game score around… 55. A 5 inning disaster start (allowing at least 1r/inning) will be around, oh, 30 or so.

I think game scores are kind of a dull tool, like much of Bill James’ little toys, but it works for this kind of large-scale thing:

The Fred-o-Tron, starting at possible injury time in late June

6/24 OAK -1
6/29 COL 70
7/4 MIN 67
7/14@TB 27
7/19@ANA 19
7/24 TEX 47
7/29 DET 55
8/3 CLE 62
8/9 @CWS 35
8/15 BOS 46
8/20@DET 31
8/25@CLE 53
8/30 KC 47
9/6 @KC 34
9/11@TEX 64
9/16 TEX 44
9/21 ANA 47
9/27@ANA 52 Aaand moving into 2003
4/1 @OAK 30
4/6 @TEX 57
4/11@TEX 40
4/16 OAK 60
4/22 CLE 54
4/27 DET 62
5/3 @CWS 64
5/8 NYY 7

Or, by bin, since 6/23:

Great, 65+: 2

Quality, 50-64: 10

Crappy, 35-49: 6

Disaster, 20-34: 5

Painfully bad, 0-19: 3

Now draw the line after the 7/4 game, which could put his injury at the All Star Game when Selig left him warming up for 3 hours:

Great: 0

Quality: 10

Crappy: 6

Disaster: 5

Painfully bad, 2

Of those quality starts, only the 9/11 TEX, 9/27 ANA, 4/6 TEX, and 4/16 OAK were against teams with above-average offensive units (okay, mayve the 5/3 CWS). And I think we could go even farther with this: in those starts, he didn’t get many Ks, except for the 9/11 @ Texas start, where he got 12k (6h, 1bb, 2hr in 7 IP). But even there: 3 of those Ks were Ruben Rivera, Juan Gonzalez didn’t play, and Mike Lamb was their DH that day. Which isn’t to say the Rangers were bad, but only that they weren’t fielding a murderer’s row that day.

I’m think it’s more likely now that I’ve looked this up that Freddy’s injured, and more likely that it was around the All Star Break. Since then I don’t see much evidence of Freddy being good anymore, his great starts missing entirely, and his decent starts coming almost entirely against bad teams.

May 14, 2003 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

Minor League Highlights for Super Tuesday, May 13

Oklahoma 7, Tacoma 2. RHP Ken Cloude’s struggles continued (6 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 2 HR), as he was pegged with his third loss of the season against zero wins and now has a 6.58 ERA on the year. It can’t be long before he’s shifted to relief to make room for Rafael Soriano. RF Kenny Kelly, the topic of quite a bit of discussion behind the scenes here at the U.S.S. Mariner, doubled and homered in four at-bats. Still, he’s hitting a mere .222/.272/.357 on the year and actually appears to be going backwards in his development. Kelly has really only hit well once during his time in the organization, and even that was a breif stint in the Arizona Fall League two years ago.

San Antonio 7, Round Rock 1. RHP Rett Johnson nearly worked a complete game for the Missions, giving way to RHP Jared Hoerman with one out in the 9th. Instead, he had to settle for his fourth win on his best start of the season (8 1/3 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K). I’m not certain, but I’m pretty sure those 12 Ks are tops in the minor league system this year for a single game. Offensively, SS Luis Ugeuto drove in four runs, and Michael Curry — looking more and more like a classic leadoff man with each passing game — drew four walks and stole his 20th base of the year. He also had a hit in his only official at-bat, scored once and drove in two. Curry is hitting a Jamal Strong-esque .309/.399/.403 on the season.

Rancho Cucamonga 2, Inland Empire 0. In what was a great pitching duel, the 66ers were shut out on seven hits, making a hard-luck loser of LHP Troy Cate (7 1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K). Despite his shiny 2.93 ERA, Cate now has a record of 2-4… how about getting the man some runs, eh boys? The game was scoreless through seven and a half innings before Cate allowed a pair of runs in the bottom of the 8th. LF Shin-soo Choo and SS Jay Pecci each had two hits for the 66ers. Choo has been particularly hot of late, and has his season line up to .285/.361/.492. A week or so ago, his average was down around .250.

Wisconsin 17, Lansing 7. In what must have been an ugly game to watch, the Timber Rattlers took advantage of nine Lansing errors — yes, NINE errors — on their way to a ten-run win. Nine of Wisconsin’s 17 runs were of the unearned variety and Lansing went through six pitchers to finish the game. RHP Juan Sandoval (5 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) picked up his first win of the year, though it’s hard to say he earned in. LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith — another guy who might deserve a shot in the rotation — pitched three scoreless innings (3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K) and now sports a 0.72 ERA. Offensively, 1B Jon Nelson and DH Cip Garcia each had three hits, including a double, a triple and a steal for Nelson, who scored four runs and drove in three. Garcia and C Rene Rivera also drove in three runs each, and RF TJ Bohn scored four runs.