Diagnosing Freddy
We haven’t been all that kind to Truly Terrible Freddy over the past few months, and it appears that the Freddy Garcia bandwagon now has as many members as the Bud Selig fan club. The theories being passed around about his struggles range from tipping pitches to an overactive nightlife. After a glance through his splits, though, it seems that Garcia has one major problem that has accounted for nearly all of his dropoff from the previous two seasons: Left-handers.
2003
Right/Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 267 91 66 15 1 8 26 18 4 54 2 3 .247 .302 .401 .703
vs. Left 276 0 84 13 0 15 55 30 5 35 1 1 .304 .375 .514 .890
2002
Right/Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 392 110 104 18 1 13 43 26 1 96 5 0 .265 .308 .416 .724
vs. Left 482 0 123 27 1 17 58 37 5 85 4 1 .255 .311 .421 .732
2001
Right/Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 409 88 84 14 0 6 42 17 5 84 7 1 .205 .240 .284 .524
vs. Left 475 0 115 33 5 10 37 52 0 79 11 1 .242 .315 .396 .711
2000
Right/Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 219 62 45 11 0 4 14 25 2 47 7 2 .205 .286 .311 .596
vs. Left 246 0 67 12 2 12 37 39 0 32 5 0 .272 .371 .484 .854
He’s actually holding right handed batters down as well as he did last year, though not near his flukish 2001 numbers. But look at that jump versus lefties? Last year, they hit .255/.311/.421 against him. This year? .304/.375/.514. Every left-hander he faces turns into Bret Boone.
While I almost never subscribe to the tipping pitches theories (remember how many times they “fixed” Norm Charlton’s delivery?), this supports that theory. Lefties are clearly picking him up better than ever, and there may be a mechanical flaw that is allowing them to get a longer look at the ball than in the past. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen enough games this year to pick up on what it may be, though I’d guess that he may be showing the ball in his hand earlier, allowing players on the opposite side of the box to get a good read on the spin of the ball.
At worst, it looks like Freddy could still retain some value in the playoffs as a setup man. If you spot him simply against tough-right handers, he could be effective in the old Ryan Franklin/Shigetoshi Hasegawa role. I can’t imagine they’ll stick with him in the rotation that much longer, but good management by Bob Melvin (well, there’s a first for everything) could get Freddy back on track by October.
For those of you who don’t have plans tonight, it’s time for my weekly suggestion. Felix Hernandez will be taking the hill for Everett tonight in relief of Kazuhiro Sasaki, who is going to be making his 3rd rehab start. If you haven’t yet seen King Felix, then make the trip. If you have, go see him again.