Hooray for the Future Forty! I’d love to announce a new Big Board, but there’s nothing doing on that front. But once we get those minor league assignments… oh just you wait and see. Muwahahahahaha.
Sorry, got carried away there.
Oh, and a special hello to Lonnie from a.s.b.s-m!
The first Future Forty of 2004 has been unveiled and is now available for your viewing pleasure. Our rankings of the organization’s 40 best prospects will be updated at the beginning of the month throughout the season. This list is determined through a combination of statistical analysis, personal scouting evaluations, second-hand scouting reports from well respected and trusted sources, discussions with individuals in the Mariners player development office, and major league officials from other teams. Prospect lists have become something of a fad, and there are lots of places you can turn to who will offer you their version of the Mariners farm system. I hope that the amount of work I put into this provides you with a reliable source of information that you can count on to be both accurate and informative. While the Future Forty itself is relatively short, the information used in compiling the list is substantial in depth, and questions about the list are always welcome.
Baseball America will be releasing their top 10 on their website on Friday, and it looks quite a bit different from what you see here. I won’t spoil the list, but they have Felix Hernandez ranked number one, which I simply cannot justify at this point. Rather than simply leaving the differences to be explained by the one sentence comment, below are in-depth looks at what I feel are the Mariners 10 best prospects.
1. Clint Nageotte, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Mid-90’s velocity, tremendous slider, ability to miss bats, success at each level
Weaknesses: Lack of a change-up, questionable willingness to learn, suspect mechanics
Potential: With an improved change-up and command, could be an all-star in the rotation
Downside: Move to bullpen a real possibility if he doesn’t improve areas of need
Positive Comparison: C.C. Sabathia
Realistic Comparison: Kelvim Escobar
Negative Comparison: Steve Karsay
2. Chris Snelling, Outfielder
Strengths: Quick bat, good contact ability, solid gap power, natural hitter
Weaknesses: Repeatedly injured, limited range after knee surgery, average speed
Potential: If he can find the time to develop, has the skills of a batting champion
Downside: Without improved plate discipline or power spike, best suited for backup role
Positive Comparison: Tony Gwynn
Realistic Comparison: Rusty Greer
Negative Comparison: David Dellucci
3. Jose Lopez, Shortstop
Strengths: Surprising power, contact ability, success at high levels despite youth
Weaknesses: Not in great shape, poor plate discipline, defense is slipping
Potential: Has the skills to be a power-hitting middle infielder in his prime
Downside: Move to third base could really harm value, low OBP could kill him there
Positive Comparison: Miguel Tejada
Realistic Comparison: Tony Batista
Negative Comparison: Antonio Perez
4. Travis Blackley, Left-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Change-up is an outpitch, curve has good potential, sets up hitters well
Weaknesses: Command of off-speed stuff needs improvement, high pitch counts
Potential: Solid #3 starter if he can cut down on pitches per batter
Downside: Fairly safe bet as far as pitching prospects go, but could always get hurt
Positive Comparison: Barry Zito
Realistic Comparison: Erik Hanson
Negative Comparison: Bruce Chen
5. Rett Johnson, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Keeps ball down, mixes pitches well, three solid pitches, improving command
Weaknesses: No strikeout pitch, average velocity, no dominating performances yet
Potential: Combination sinker and slider could make him solid ground ball machine
Downside: If he continues to allow contact at current rates, could be wildly inconsistent
Positive Comparison: Derek Lowe
Realistic Comparison: John Thomson
Negative Comparison: Matt Wagner
6. Shin-Soo Choo, Outfielder
Strengths: Solid across-the-board skills, patient hitter, organization likes him
Weaknesses: Poor defensive outfielder, lays off too many hittable pitches, slowing down
Potential: If power blossoms, could be a .300/.400/.500 corner outfielder.
Downside: Pitchers continue to take advantage of patience, never gets out of Double-A
Positive Comparison: Bobby Abreu
Realistic Comparison: Eric Byrnes
Negative Comparison: Chin-Feng Chen
7. Felix Hernandez, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Upper-90’s velocity, strikeout curveball, solid command for someone his age
Weaknesses: No third pitch yet, no experience against real competition
Potential: With his two plus pitches and command, could be an ace of any rotation
Downside: All teenage pitchers are huge risks; Ryan Anderson, anyone?
Positive Comparison: Bartolo Colon, before he ate David Wells
Realistic Comparison: Too soon to say. Need to see more.
Negative Comparison: Brien Taylor
8. Bobby Madritsch, Left-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Mid-90’s velocity, improved as season wore on, misses bats, ultra-competitive
Weaknesses: Inconsistent mechanics, mediocre offspeed stuff, average command
Potential: If he harnesses breaking ball, could be a #3 starter who destroys lefties.
Downside: Could get pigeon-holed as lefty-specialist, become a one out pitcher.
Positive Comparison: Randy Wolf
Realistic Comparison: Odalis Perez
Negative Comparison: Ron Villone
9. Cha Seung Baek, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Three average pitches, solid command, sets up hitters, throws strikes
Weaknesses: Below average velocity, lost years of development due to injuries
Potential: If stuff ever comes back and command stays, could be solid #4 starter
Downside: With his injury history, he’s nearly impossible to count on for innings
Positive Comparison: Brian Lawrence
Realistic Comparison: Steve Ontiveros
Negative Comparison: Roger Salkeld
10. Justin Leone, Third Baseman
Strengths: Terrific defensive player, patient hitter, solid power, decent athlete
Weaknesses: Not getting any younger, no experience above Double-A
Potential: If given 500 at-bats, could be league average player for next three years
Downside: Age will always be held against him, might not get a fair shot
Positive Comparison: Bill Mueller
Realistic Comparison: Joe Randa
Negative Comparison: Mike Lamb