Hooray for the Future Forty! I’d love to announce a new Big Board, but there’s nothing doing on that front. But once we get those minor league assignments… oh just you wait and see. Muwahahahahaha.
Sorry, got carried away there.
Oh, and a special hello to Lonnie from a.s.b.s-m!
The first Future Forty of 2004 has been unveiled and is now available for your viewing pleasure. Our rankings of the organization’s 40 best prospects will be updated at the beginning of the month throughout the season. This list is determined through a combination of statistical analysis, personal scouting evaluations, second-hand scouting reports from well respected and trusted sources, discussions with individuals in the Mariners player development office, and major league officials from other teams. Prospect lists have become something of a fad, and there are lots of places you can turn to who will offer you their version of the Mariners farm system. I hope that the amount of work I put into this provides you with a reliable source of information that you can count on to be both accurate and informative. While the Future Forty itself is relatively short, the information used in compiling the list is substantial in depth, and questions about the list are always welcome.
Baseball America will be releasing their top 10 on their website on Friday, and it looks quite a bit different from what you see here. I won’t spoil the list, but they have Felix Hernandez ranked number one, which I simply cannot justify at this point. Rather than simply leaving the differences to be explained by the one sentence comment, below are in-depth looks at what I feel are the Mariners 10 best prospects.
1. Clint Nageotte, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Mid-90’s velocity, tremendous slider, ability to miss bats, success at each level
Weaknesses: Lack of a change-up, questionable willingness to learn, suspect mechanics
Potential: With an improved change-up and command, could be an all-star in the rotation
Downside: Move to bullpen a real possibility if he doesn’t improve areas of need
Positive Comparison: C.C. Sabathia
Realistic Comparison: Kelvim Escobar
Negative Comparison: Steve Karsay
2. Chris Snelling, Outfielder
Strengths: Quick bat, good contact ability, solid gap power, natural hitter
Weaknesses: Repeatedly injured, limited range after knee surgery, average speed
Potential: If he can find the time to develop, has the skills of a batting champion
Downside: Without improved plate discipline or power spike, best suited for backup role
Positive Comparison: Tony Gwynn
Realistic Comparison: Rusty Greer
Negative Comparison: David Dellucci
3. Jose Lopez, Shortstop
Strengths: Surprising power, contact ability, success at high levels despite youth
Weaknesses: Not in great shape, poor plate discipline, defense is slipping
Potential: Has the skills to be a power-hitting middle infielder in his prime
Downside: Move to third base could really harm value, low OBP could kill him there
Positive Comparison: Miguel Tejada
Realistic Comparison: Tony Batista
Negative Comparison: Antonio Perez
4. Travis Blackley, Left-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Change-up is an outpitch, curve has good potential, sets up hitters well
Weaknesses: Command of off-speed stuff needs improvement, high pitch counts
Potential: Solid #3 starter if he can cut down on pitches per batter
Downside: Fairly safe bet as far as pitching prospects go, but could always get hurt
Positive Comparison: Barry Zito
Realistic Comparison: Erik Hanson
Negative Comparison: Bruce Chen
5. Rett Johnson, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Keeps ball down, mixes pitches well, three solid pitches, improving command
Weaknesses: No strikeout pitch, average velocity, no dominating performances yet
Potential: Combination sinker and slider could make him solid ground ball machine
Downside: If he continues to allow contact at current rates, could be wildly inconsistent
Positive Comparison: Derek Lowe
Realistic Comparison: John Thomson
Negative Comparison: Matt Wagner
6. Shin-Soo Choo, Outfielder
Strengths: Solid across-the-board skills, patient hitter, organization likes him
Weaknesses: Poor defensive outfielder, lays off too many hittable pitches, slowing down
Potential: If power blossoms, could be a .300/.400/.500 corner outfielder.
Downside: Pitchers continue to take advantage of patience, never gets out of Double-A
Positive Comparison: Bobby Abreu
Realistic Comparison: Eric Byrnes
Negative Comparison: Chin-Feng Chen
7. Felix Hernandez, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Upper-90’s velocity, strikeout curveball, solid command for someone his age
Weaknesses: No third pitch yet, no experience against real competition
Potential: With his two plus pitches and command, could be an ace of any rotation
Downside: All teenage pitchers are huge risks; Ryan Anderson, anyone?
Positive Comparison: Bartolo Colon, before he ate David Wells
Realistic Comparison: Too soon to say. Need to see more.
Negative Comparison: Brien Taylor
8. Bobby Madritsch, Left-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Mid-90’s velocity, improved as season wore on, misses bats, ultra-competitive
Weaknesses: Inconsistent mechanics, mediocre offspeed stuff, average command
Potential: If he harnesses breaking ball, could be a #3 starter who destroys lefties.
Downside: Could get pigeon-holed as lefty-specialist, become a one out pitcher.
Positive Comparison: Randy Wolf
Realistic Comparison: Odalis Perez
Negative Comparison: Ron Villone
9. Cha Seung Baek, Right-Handed Pitcher
Strengths: Three average pitches, solid command, sets up hitters, throws strikes
Weaknesses: Below average velocity, lost years of development due to injuries
Potential: If stuff ever comes back and command stays, could be solid #4 starter
Downside: With his injury history, he’s nearly impossible to count on for innings
Positive Comparison: Brian Lawrence
Realistic Comparison: Steve Ontiveros
Negative Comparison: Roger Salkeld
10. Justin Leone, Third Baseman
Strengths: Terrific defensive player, patient hitter, solid power, decent athlete
Weaknesses: Not getting any younger, no experience above Double-A
Potential: If given 500 at-bats, could be league average player for next three years
Downside: Age will always be held against him, might not get a fair shot
Positive Comparison: Bill Mueller
Realistic Comparison: Joe Randa
Negative Comparison: Mike Lamb
Here’s a rhetorical question for everyone:
If you felt betrayed by Alex signing with Texas after his statements about wanting to stay in Seattle, do you feel better or worse knowing that there’s another fan base that feels weirdly betrayed in the same way?
I had a friend once who brutally betrayed me to impress a girl, and that was it — I never trusted or really hung out with him much again, though he remained friends with our mutual friends (if that makes sense) so I did see him, and he was always congenial when we had to be in the same room. And if he’d moved on down the line and stuck a knife in the next guy, as I always expected would happen, I don’ t know if I’d have felt sympathy for them, or as if they’d deserved it because they should have known what was coming, or even if I’d felt some combination of both.
Cost to get Alex: 16m/year + 2-years of a super-prospect at below-market prices
Now.. hmmm… did the Mariners blow $16m this off-season? Um, yup. Do they have the prospects to make a trade like this happen? Yup.
The real problem, of course, is that Alex would never, ever return here, for a couple of reasons:
First, he wants to be on the national stage. He thought that would happen in Texas and it didn’t, so he wants to go to New York where all the media is, et cetera. Seattle is bad for exposure.
Second, the booing. We’ve commented on this idiocy a number of times, but the constant bad conduct towards Alex means that it would be unlikely he’d be willing to waive the no-trade, let alone restructure his deal.
Since we’re late to the party, and you’re probably sick of reading stories about Alex Rodriguez, I’ll make my points brief:
What the Rangers get:
1. Approximately a $16-18 million dollar savings, per year, from 2005-2010.
2. A good second baseman, in his prime, not eligible for free agency for two years.
3. Worse, probably by three to four wins.
What the Yankees get:
1. The best player in the American League for the bargain of 112 million over 7 years.
2. A Rodriguez-Sheffield-Giambi-Williams-Posada middle of the line-up. Good Lord.
3. A monstrous luxary tax bill.
What the Mariners get:
1. A weaker opponent for the 19 games scheduled against Texas.
2. The reality that they have almost no chance at the wild card.
3. Another reason to hate the Yankees.
Could this deal help both teams? Sure. If Texas spends their money well and Soriano continues to perform at a high level, they should be able to replace the difference between the two players with the money saved from Rodriguez’s contract. However, that will require them to make shrewd acquisitions while hoping that the market doesn’t change, and neither of those things are guaranteed. New York simply improves their roster at the cost of an even greater financial burden, but one that they can still make a profit on.
If the Yankees were smart — and if they’ve shown us anything over the past eight years or so, it’s that they’re both smart and not smart at the same time — they’d play Rodriguez at short, Jeter at second and the almost-newest Yankee, Mike Lamb, at third. Not gonna happen, though. I would like to make this wild prediction, however: Lamb will be the PTBNL in the Rodriguez-Soriano deal and the Rangers will play him at 2B with Michael Young moving to SS.
For all the talk of Giambi’s health, he did manage to lead the Yankees in OPS (.939) last season while ranking 7th in the AL. Then you’ve got Jeter, who despite not being as good as advertised, still manages to get on base at nearly a .400 clip for his career. Moving on, you’re looking at Gary Sheffield, Jorge Posada and of course Rodriguez. Bernie Williams should see a jump in his offensive production assuming he’s moved to DH, and Hideki Matsui isn’t exactly a slouch.
What’s scary is that despite all this, the Red Sox might still score more runs than the Yankees. As for a new 2B? Here’s a scary thought — Montreal’s Jose Vidro. OK, forget I said that.
What should really worry M’s fans about the super-arming of the Yankees (esp if/when they pick up a top 2B one way or another) is that if there are two 100+ win teams in the AL East, the M’s might as well book their travel plans now (or, even better, book their luxury vacations), because today it looks like there’s no way they’re going to wrangle a wild card this coming season, and the A’s and Angels look like the teams that are going to dog-fight for the division pennant.
That said, this talk about the Yankees scoring some historic number of runs seems… early, at the least. They’re an old, old team, with Giambi’s health an open question, and CF a potential black hole of offense (and defense) if Lofton plays regularly there. If they replaced their 2B hole with, uh… Bret Boone (who has been an astonishingly productive player, defying almost everyone, including me, who didn’t see this coming), or… Marcus Giles? Then they might be looking at getting over 1,000 runs. Who’s out there and good for someone looking to cut salary. Jeff Kent, maybe? Ray Durham?
Alex Rodriguez to New York for Soriano, huh? That’s the hot story of the day, though we’ll see when it comes through (or doesn’t). We’ve known Alex has wanted to move to a national market for a while now, looking for the added exposure and money to be made there.
And normally I’d be baffled about the reported decision to play Alex at *third* while “Past a diving” Derek Jeter continues to play short. Alex is in every way a better shortstop than Jeter: he’s a much better defender and a superior hitter, in both areas by such a margin that it’s not even close. A straight swap of Jeter for Alex is 60 runs over the course of the season, easily. Jeter’s got “athleticism” but his range is bad. Some argued Jeter could be the solution to the team’s center field defense problems, where he’d be able to track fly balls and use his speed without having to field those tricky grounders that give him so much trouble. If Soriano’s the trade bait, I don’t know who they scrape up to play second, but they could find some Dominican glove wizard at this point and offer Mussina & Co. some relief from last year’s single-fest.
I’m not baffled, though, because these are the Yankees, and they haven’t always looked at things in the same rational way I might (which is “what are our needs, what do we have, what can we get, how do we put together a winning team after we’ve answered those first three questions?”). For instance, the Yankees are able to look at an average right fielder and upgrade him to Gary Sheffield, and punt outfield defense entirely for a year (or more).
With Boone out, the Yankees discovered their stopgap solutions at third were all pretty shabby (but would one of them have been able to do a passable Boone impression? Probably). If Alex Rodriguez has been a third baseman last year, he’d have been the best-hitting third-baseman in baseball, which now that I’ve typed that strikes me as one of the strangest and most impressive things I’ve ever seen. Holy mackeral. An Alex-for-Boone upgrade gets the Yankees 30 runs, maybe more. Now it doesn’t solve the Jeter and up-the-middle defensive problems, but now second base is open. What’s weird is that leaving Alex where he can contribute most and then finding Jeter a position keeps thier offense the same (they’d both be in the lineup no matter what) but would improve their defense markedly.
But this isn’t the ideal solution. For all the carping I do about the Mariners and their ill moves, the Yankees got older and better without fixing their problems, which was expensive and not easy. That they are apparantly unwilling to face Jeter’s defensive limitations or ask him (as the captain) to make a move that would make the team significantly better (um, actually, maybe I should be happy that’s the case), maybe this is a great sign, that Bad George Yankees may win a ton now but will ultimately spend themselves into oblivion on contracts (like Jeter’s) that reward public regard and chemistry over performance and team-building.
Like the Mariners have done!
“That’s who I care about — the little kid who needs bootlegs because his parent or guardian won’t let him see the excessive violence and strong sexual content you and I take for granted!”
Email today: Dave Myers is being frank and honest, and even if he’s wrong, it’s good to hear it.
Now, my own opinion of the Snelling Crippler aside, I disagree with this entirely. If Myers really thought that Cirillo sucked, the time to be honest and forthright isn’t now, with Cirillo on San Diego’s payroll and a new guy in town, when it doesn’t matter. It would have been when the position was up for grabs. But if he did it, best to do it in private out of the public eye, right? Why is this any different? If Myers wants to boost the new guy a little, go right ahead. But taking a shot at a departed player is nothing to applaud, and accomplishes nothing.