June 28, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

Things that Dave Henderson just said that are demonstrably false:

Randy Winn always really heats up late in the year, he’s just a late starter

Winn’s three-year split:

Pre: .290/.348/.426

Post: .291/.350/.439

Umm.. no. Last year, sure (.679 OPS v .889 OPS). But even the year before that, it was much closer and reversed (.842 OPS v .795 OPS).

Winn always hits over .290 (do I even need to get into that one?)

Ahhh, fish, barrell.

June 28, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

Don’t be fooled by a shiny two months, Jason. Inge is about as craptastic a hitter as you can get. Here’s his career for you:

AL 337 1005 0.215 0.275 0.343
AAA 142 487 0.255 0.319 0.444
AA 78 298 0.258 0.313 0.409
A 155 559 0.238 0.317 0.404

1,005 major league at bats and a .275 OBP? I’m sorry, but you just don’t make that kind of leap from “one of three or four worst hitters in baseball” into a good player overnight. There’s absolutely nothing in his history that would suggest he has the ability to sustain any kind of marginal offensive performance. He has 2400 career at-bats as a professional, and they all led to one giant conclusion: He can’t hit. His 165 at-bat hot streak doesn’t change that. In his 3 previous major league seasons, he hit .180 (189 at-bats), .202 (321 at-bats), and .203 (330 at-bats). He’s been given two extended trials as a major league semi-regular and posted on base percentages of .265 and .266 respectively. At least he’s consistent, right? Right now, there are only two major league regulars posting OBP’s below .265; Tony Batista and Neifi Perez.

Brandon Inge is an awful major league hitter, his 2004 numbers to date notwithstanding. You don’t want him on the roster, much less having to give up something of value to get him.

June 28, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

Three things —

I feel soooo good to see Olivio in an M’s uniform, it’s nutty. What a great freaking trade.

The cash in the Garcia’s deal is supposedly Ben Davis’ salary. It’s not Garcia’s contract, or anything like it. This deal was a steaaaaaaaaaaaal, folks. A steal. Lock up Bavasi, because he cleaned out that franchise like the Hamburgler on a meth bender.

Okay, maybe not, but man.

The stupid musical cues you’re hearing are because it’s “country music night” here in Seattle, noted center of the country music scene.

Update: don’t hang around Bloomquist, Miguel! He wants your talent to rub off on him — don’t let it happen!

June 28, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

I don’t think they’ll be trading for Brandon Inge any time soon — he’s on the 15-day DL with a broken finger. I don’t understand the negative sentiment, though. He’s a tremendous defensive catcher and was hitting .303/.374/.491 before hitting the DL.

June 28, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

Nearly as positive news as the deal itself were Bavasi’s remarks in subsequent interviews. Talks of trusting the young pitching in the organization and spending heavily on offense during the offseason is exactly the blueprint this organization should follow. Rather than signing Ron Villone as a lefty reliever, give George Sherrill a chance, and invest the money saved into impact hitters which the organization does not possess. If the M’s really are going to give their crop of young hurlers a real opportunity in 2005, and are going to spend significant amounts of money to upgrade the offense, this team can contend next year. This does not have to be a long rebuilding process. Let’s hope this is just round one in the complete overhaul of the way this franchise assembles its rosters.

So, whats next? I’d expect Rich Aurilia, Ron Villone, and Mike Myers to all find themselves new homes within the next week or two. Clearly, the M’s are willing to make a deal now, rather than wait til the deadline, if they get a package in return that they like. Despite the rumors, I doubt Jamie Moyer gets moved. He has total control over his future, and at his age, I’d imagine stability is just as important to him as a chance to pitch for a contender, especially if he believes this team can contend in 2005. His contract is reasonable, so there is no rush to dump him before he becomes an albatross, as there is with Bret Boone. I’d imagine the club will find a taker for Boone at the deadline, though they may have to toss some more cash into the deal and be willing to accept little talent in return.

Spiezio has probably played himself out of any trade value, which is unfortunate. Stick him on waivers and see if someone bites. At this point, just clearing his roster space and dumping that contract would be a success.

I don’t expect Franklin to be traded, though I still think selling high would be a good idea here. The club lacks incentive to move him, since he is performing decently and relatively inexpensive. At this point, though, his value is as high as it will ever be, and fetching a midlevel prospect while clearing his salary off the ’05 books would be a wise transaction.

The Garcia trade was the big one that will actually bring talent in return. The rest of the moves will likely be contract dumps, bringing little more than longshot prospects or roster filler in return. But the more successful contract dumps this team can achieve, the more they will have to chase names like Garciaparra, Glaus, and Beltran during the offseason. Let’s hope most fans have the forsight to see that addition by subtraction is a wise strategy, and that the M’s continue along the path that they started blazing yesterday.

Oh, and for the love of God, please don’t trade for Brandon Inge.

June 28, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

I don’t understand people who aren’t fully behind this trade. Here are the points to consider, as I see them:

  • Freddy Garcia is a free agent after this season. A free agent the M’s weren’t going to re-sign, as the sort of contract he’s going to be looking for is the type this organization doesn’t give out, almost as a rule. You can debate that stance if you want, but it has no bearing on whether or not the trade was a good one.
  • Freddy Garcia could have pitched a no-hitter in each of his remaining starts this season, and the M’s still wouldn’t be making the playoffs. Seriously. Suppose Garcia wins every start and the team splits the four games he doesn’t start. That’s .600 ball the rest of the season, good for roughly 83 wins. At least one of Texas, Anaheim and Oakland is going to win 90 games this season, and 83 doesn’t get you the wild card, either.
  • In addition to dumping a player (Ben Davis) who was never going to see the light of day with this organization ever again, the M’s got three players who can help at the major league level. One, Miguel Olivo, helps starting tomorrow. The second, Jeremy Reed, should help next season at the very latest. The third, Michael Morse, might not help for a few years, if at all — but even if he doesn’t, Olivo and Reed are more than fair compensation for a few months of Freddy Garcia.

    One more thing I thought of today — it’s really too bad Rafael Soriano isn’t healthy for all of this, because he probably would have taken Garica’s spot in the rotation, assuming he hadn’t already taken Meche’s.

    June 28, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

    Something else about the Garcia deal: many people looking at this think “We gave up an ace pitcher for three guys I’ve never heard of” (which again, sort of true but not a meaningful statement). What that misses though is in viewing his career and glossing over the bad times, you miss that the chance Freddy’s going to continue to be this good is significant. His good year’s been Safeco-assisted, and everyone should face up to the fact that Freddy’s had some bad, bad times, and he’s not a sure thing to finish this season as a top 30 pitcher.

    If he does, it’s a good trade for the M’s.

    If he explodes and stinks it up the rest of the year, this is going to look like one of the great steals of the last couple years.

    June 28, 2004 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on  

    To immediately dip into rumor-swapping after that post on why we’ve avoided doing so: word on the street is the M’s were totally after Reed in their discussions with the White Sox, and reports the contrary probably arise out of discussions the teams had that involved Reed+Crede. So back to cheering for the trade.

    Seriously: good job, team.