“Perception is strong and sight weak. In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.“
Miyamoto Musashi
Jason mentions it below, our inbox is getting lit up by Boone supporters, and Mike Thompson states that Boone is on fire in his latest post. Is it true? His splits by month:
April: .255/.284/.449
May: .195/.303/.338
June: .213/.290/.303
July: .301/.329/.534
The recent hot streak is erasing three months of miserable baseball that Boone brought to the field. Perception is threatening to overtake relaity. In comparison to the rest of his season, his July looks spectacular. In reality, it’s still a pretty big step down from the Bret Boone we’ve seen the past few years. July of 2004 would rank as his second worst month in 2003, ranking ahead of only August of last season. He only had three months worse than this July, his best month of 2004, in 2002. In his past 16 months of baseball, his ’04 months rank 16th, 15th, 12th, and 10th on the Boone scale of established production.
Even with his recent power surge, Bret Boone is showing decline. He’s not going to revert back to the MVP candidate we had in 2003 or 2001. At best, he’s the inconsistent mediocrity we had in 2002, mixing in good stretches with abysmal periods of out-making. If we give Boone complete benefit of the doubt and assume he’ll keep up his July pace for the rest of the year, he’s going to be worth about 25 runs above replacement for 2004. At $8 million, that’s 3 runs per million. That’s just not a good way to spend that much money. $8 million should get you about 40-50 runs above what a replacement level player would provide. And this is the best case scenario, assuming he doesn’t cool off for the rest of the year.
Bret Boone is due $9 million next year, and the odds of him being worth $9 million in 2005 are between slim and none. The Mariners have an opportunity to capitalize on his short term value to eliminate their long term problem of his contract. No doubt, they should take it. The $9 million Bret Boone is going to make next year could easliy be spent on younger, better players who will help the team not only in 2005 but in years beyond. The Mariners best chance to rebuild quickly is to buy multiple all-star talents from this crop of free agents. Having Bret Boone on the payroll greatly prohibits their ability to make the big splash necessary in free agency.
Hot streak or not, Boone should be dealt. Let’s not let a 40 at-bat sequence that appears to be the revival of the Boone of Old fool us; we simply have Old Boone instead.
Another fun one to watch tonight. Boone appears to have found his stroke in the last week or so, eh? This doesn’t happen often, but I completely agree with Bill Krueger — Ken Macha must have been on drugs to allow lefty Mark Redman to face Boone in the 8th having already thrown 100+ pitches. I believe he had Chad Bradford ready, just the sort of pitcher to frustrate an aggressive hitter like Boone. Ah well, a win’s a win.
We are now 9 days from the trade deadline and the rumor mill is in full effect. Based on some interesting and surprisingly frank conversations I had with some folks yesterday, here’s the scoop as far as I know:
Players Who Will Be Traded
- Ron Villone. It’s just a matter of where. The M’s will probably hold out until the 30th-31st with him to see if anyone decides to make a late push after failing to get Johnson/Benson. The M’s aren’t going to get a ton in return, but the offers have been mostly in the range of one semi-intriguing prospect.
- Mike Myers. This could happen soon. The M’s will likely settle for a fringe prospect with the contending club picking up the rest of his salary.
- Dave Hansen. Like Myers, this could go down in the next several days as well. He’s the classic bat-off-the-bench addition that several teams are looking for. Like Myers, he’s probably going to bring a longshot prospect in return. Occasionally, though, those longshot prospects turn into David Ortiz.
Players Who Might Be Traded
- Randy Winn. There are several teams interested and willing to take the rest of his contract as long as they don’t have to give up much in return. The M’s haven’t decided whether to move him or keep him around. They should move him, but it’s probably 50-50 at this point.
- Bret Boone. The release rumor was stupid. There is some interest in Boone, especially if the M’s eat a chunk of his salary this year. However, the M’s don’t feel that its vital to move Boone. They believe that, if they still want to dump his ’05 contract during the offseason, they could find a taker for him. They’ll deal Boone if they get an offer they like (a good prospect or not having to pick up any of his salary), but that hasn’t shown up yet. At this point, I’d bet on Boone not being traded.
- Eddie Guardado. The M’s don’t want to trade him, but his contract is rather unique, containing mutual options for both 2005 and 2006. As I was told, Guarado can opt out of the contract that pays him $4.5 million next year, leaving the Mariners holding an option on him for $6.5 million (same deal in ’06). If the M’s decline that option, he’s a free agent. Without some assurances that he’s going to stay, the M’s may move him rather than risk having to overpay or watch him walk. However, their preference is to keep him around, and they may try to buy out that option before the deadline.
Players Who Won’t Be Traded
- Jamie Moyer. The M’s don’t want to rebuild their entire staff next year, and with Jamie’s 10-5 rights, a trade could be hard anyways. They won’t even try to move him unless he comes to the team and says he wants out. But that’s very unlikely. He’s almost certainly sticking around.
- Edgar Martinez. The M’s wouldn’t trade him even if there was a market for a 41-year-old DH who isn’t hitting. There isn’t, thankfully. Edgar rightfully retires as a Mariner at years end.
- Dan Wilson. The rumors out of Minnesota have no legs. The M’s have no interest in trading Dan Wilson.
- Scott Spiezio. No one will take that contract. He’s back next year.
- Shigetoshi Hasegawa. Ditto.
- Raul Ibanez. The M’s still love him. He’s not going anywhere, and there’s not much interest.
Expect between 3-6 moves, not including the Olerud deal, which could go down today or tomorrow (M’s pick up vast majority of contract, get a fringe prospect). The M’s probably won’t get more than one decent prospect in return (likely for Villone). The house clearing is nearly over.
Travis Blackley starts the game, Bobby Madritsch gets the win, and Bucky Jacobsen hits a walkoff homer. The Seattle Rainiers are in full effect. With Bocachica temporarily gone (he’ll almost certainly clear waivers), Bucky’s going to be the target of fan adoration, and stuff like this sure won’t hurt. Good to see the big guy contributing and making it interesting to watch the M’s play.
Yes, we’ve heard the Villone to Philly rumors. No, I don’t think its anywhere close to imminent. The biggest suitor for his services has ended their pursuit after falling back in the race.
Michael Restovich sucks. We don’t want him. If the Twins want Dan Wilson, great, but let’s ask for someone besides Restovich. However, I don’t think Wilson’s getting moved at all.
Rough night for King Felix down in San Antonio; 2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. His ERA goes from 2.50 to 4.79. Of course, his season line still reads 20 IP, 21 H, 9 BB, and 19 K. For an 18-year-old in Double-A, that’s pretty freaking awesome.
Another callup by the M’s: Bobby Madritsch has gotten the call to the big show. No news yet on a corresponding roster move to make room for him on the 25 man roster. At this point, a trade of Villone or Myers would appear the most likely option.
Edit: Hiram Bocachica has been designated for assignment to make room, just two days after Bob Melvin said they had to get him more playing time. A strange move, really.
Some miscellaneous ramblings from my first excursion of the year to Safeco, made all the more enjoyable thanks to Derek’s company to my left. And the entertaining girl to my right. If I saw Derek more than once a year, I would have kept more specific notes and a running log, but this will have to do:
Why do people pay $30 for parking? I parked approximately 1/2 block from Safeco, at noon, for free. People parked a mile further away for between $20-$30. A little effort, folks. Someone could make a nice cottage industry just charging people for telling them where to park. You wouldn’t even need to own any land. They’d easily give up $5 if you could tell them where to park for free.
Getting lunch at the pyramid before a day game; not the hottest idea. Wait for a table is nearly an hour, and service is, well, Mariner-esque.
Derek’s still way funnier in person than he is through his writing. And I’m one of the biggest fans of his writing there is.
I agree with Derek; the Edgar Martinez Bear is frightening.
Manny Ramirez freaking destroyed that pitch from Pineiro.
Despite the nice line score, Sherrill didn’t pitch that well. Fell behind to nearly every batter, and got a lot of balls-in-play outs, especially in relation to his strikeouts. At one point, he’d thrown 10 balls and 8 strikes, 6 of them had been put in play, and he’d gotten 5 outs.
Strange managerial decision of the day: In the 8th inning, Terry Francona summons Joe Nelson, fresh up from the minors, sporting an 11.57 ERA, into the ballgame to protect a four run lead. He hits Winn, Boone doubles, and Martinez collects an RBI single to cut the lead to three and bring the tying run to the plate in Bucky Jacobsen. I expect Nelson to be yanked, but Francona stays with him, and he strikes out Bucky to record the first out. Then, with switch-hitter Scott Spiezio due up, Francona goes and gets Alan Embree, a lefty. Spiezio had a problem with lefties last year, but the platoon advantage isn’t going to be significant in this AB, and the on-deck hitter destroys left-handed pitching. So, I assume Embree is in for one batter. He gets Spiezio to ground out, scoring a run, and bringing Olivo, the tying run, to the plate. Olivo is hitting .419/.447/.860 in 43 AB’s against lefties this year. Obviously, that’s a fluke in a small sample, but still, do you really want a lefty facing Olivo right now as the tying run? Embree ends up walking him, then giving up a single to Ibanez before Cabrera flies out to end the rally. And, when it was over, neither Derek or I could figure out what on earth Francona was doing with his pen. That would be the worst strategic move of the game, except…
Down by two in the ninth, Ichiro swats a leadoff single, bringing the tying run to the plate. His run is meaningless. So, of course, he takes off and steals second, which improved our chances of scoring two runs by 0 percent. This is the stupidest move a runner can make. Ichiro’s run essentially does not count in the final tally. Unless the batter scores to tie the game, we could care less if Ichiro scores. Ichiro being on second accomplishes nothing in helping the second runner score while incurring the risk he could be thrown out. Now, he made it, so no one cares, but what if he slips and falls? Or Varitek just makes an unbelievable throw? He gets wiped out, the game is now 33 % closer to being over, and there was no benefit at all. It was bad baserunning, bad strategy, and it was applauded by the remains of the 45,000 in attendance. That was bad baseball, folks. Had Ichiro been thrown out and any of the next three batters homered, people would be calling for some kind of human sacrifice (that is, if they still cared if the team won or lost). Just because it worked doesn’t mean the risk was worth it.
I miss Mike Cameron.
It appears that quite a few people are curious as to the explanation of the fourth out. Reader Thomas McFadden (among many others) provided a nice explanation:
Home team is hitting with runners on first and third, one out. Fly ball to left field it is caught…runner at third tags, but leaves third base too early. Runner from first also tries to advance, but is tagged out in a run down for the third out. Since the score was tied, the pitcher took the ball, ordered the third baseman to go take an appeal…pitcher steps on then off, tosses to third where the runner who left early is called out for the fourth out. In the scorebook, the fourth out replaces the third out. And the score remained tied.
Clearly, in this example, Randy Winn’s sissy arm is not playing left field.
Thanks to everyone who wrote in about the “fourth out”. At least one of you said something to the effect of, “Really, you didn’t know that?” Guilty as charged. I never remember hearing about it. Now that I’ve got the full scoop, I can say with no uncertainty that I think it’s darned silly.
We’re also getting quite a bit of email about Leone’s throwing problems since he’s been called up. I for one didn’t see this coming; even when he wasn’t hitting in the minors, he always played solid defense. I saw him at San Antonio last season for three games and if anything, I was more impressed with his defense than his offense. I think he’ll be fine in the long run, though his future certainly isn’t at SS (not that anyone believes it is anyway).
Finally, I was looking over a few things I decided the M’s should be able to put together a solid and quite inexpensive bullpen next season, even if they don’t trade Eddie Guardado. Lefties: Bobby Madritsch and George Sherrill. Righties: Rafael Soriano and Julio Mateo. Long man: JJ Putz. Closer: Eddie Guardado. Even with Guardado making a decent chunk of money, the other guys will make just a bit more than $1.5M combined. This also assumes they’re able to deal Hasegawa, but again, he doesn’t make all that much. The total price goes down, obviously, if Guardado is dealt in the next two weeks or next winter.
Boone! Here comes the Boone!
Ready or not —
here comes ball not caught
Ron is talking on the TV broadcast right now about situations in which you have to “get the fourth out.” I personally have never heard of such a thing, and have no idea if he’s correct or not. That said, if he is correct, that’s about the stupidest baseball rule I’ve ever heard. Runners cannot score when the third out comes via a force out, even if they cross the plate before said third out is recorded.
Anyone want to chime in on this one? Ron sounds like he’s full of crap, but you never know.